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    Sunday, August 1, 2021

    Stocks - The average monthly S&P 500 stock market returns from 1980 to 2019 show 2 months are usually down: August and September

    Stocks - The average monthly S&P 500 stock market returns from 1980 to 2019 show 2 months are usually down: August and September


    The average monthly S&P 500 stock market returns from 1980 to 2019 show 2 months are usually down: August and September

    Posted: 01 Aug 2021 11:40 AM PDT

    Average monthly return 1980 - 2019

    January: +0.82%

    February: +0.29%

    March: +0.96%

    April: +1.51%

    May: +0.97%

    June: +0.02%

    July: +0.79%

    August: -0.15%

    September: -0.70%

    October: +0.92%

    November: +1.48%

    December: +1.11%

    Average: +0.67%

    submitted by /u/LegendLarrynumero1
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    China securities watchdog seeks closer cooperation with U.S.

    Posted: 01 Aug 2021 09:30 AM PDT

    BEIJING, Aug 1 (Reuters) - China's securities regulator said on Sunday it will seek closer cooperation with its U.S. counterpart and will support overseas listings, after U.S. regulators tightened disclosure for Chinese companies and voiced concern about Beijing's regulatory actions.

    The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) said in a statement that it had taken note of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) new requirements for disclosure regarding Chinese companies' listings and that the two sides should "uphold the spirit of mutual respect" and "strengthen communications on regulating China-related stocks."

    The CSRC has always been open to companies choosing where to go public and "China's basic national policy of advancing reform and opening up is unswerving, and the financial opening to the outside world will continue," it said on its website.

    The SEC said on Friday it would require Chinese companies to disclose "uncertainty about future actions by the government of China that could significantly affect the operating company's financial performance," before allowing them to raise capital through U.S. stock markets

    Chinese issuers must also disclose if they were denied permission from Chinese authorities to list on U.S. exchanges and the risks that such approval could be denied or rescinded, the SEC added.

    China has been tightening its regulatory grip on overseas share issuance after it launched a cybersecurity probe of ride-hailing giant Didi Global Inc (DIDI.N) last month, just days after its listing in New York.

    China's cabinet said on July 6 that it would strengthen supervision of all Chinese firms listed offshore.

    Following suit, China's cyberspace regulator said that any company with data for more than 1 million users must report for a cybersecurity review before seeking overseas listings. China's central bank has also said that non-bank payment firms must report plans for overseas listings.

    Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-securities-watchdog-seeks-closer-cooperation-with-us-2021-08-01/

    submitted by /u/_Warren_Buffalo_
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    How Stocks Are Valued Part 2: Relative Value

    Posted: 01 Aug 2021 08:52 AM PDT

    In my last post, I went over how to value stocks based on the discounted cash flow of a company. If you haven't read it yet, start here. This post will go over relative valuation, rather than the absolute value of a company.

    Comparables

    When you're buying a house, how do you determine what the fair value of the house is? Appraisers often look at similar homes in the neighborhood to get an idea of how much the house should be worth.

    If the house on 123 Potato Street were similar to all the other houses on Potato Street but was selling for 20% more than the average, odds are it's not going to sell. This concept of comparing assets to similar assets also applies in stock valuation.

    How Do We Compare Stocks?

    Remember that stocks just represent a fraction of a company's future earnings. For similar companies with similar industries, earnings, and, $1 in earnings for company A should be worth the same as $1 of earnings for company B.

    A lemonade stand that makes $10 on Potato Street should be worth about the same to an investor as a lemonade stand that makes $10 somewhere else in the same neighborhood. If one is valued at $100 and the other at $120, the first lemonade stand might be undervalued.

    There are several metrics we can use to compare stocks. Some ratios include:

    1. Price to Earnings (P/E). This ratio is calculated by dividing the stock price by its earnings per share. For example, WFC and BAC are (at a glance) similar companies since they're both in the same industry. It makes sense that they have similar P/E ratios, with WFC at 13.16 and BAC at 12.83. However, we see that BAC is relatively cheaper as we pay less for each dollar of earnings compared to WFC.
    2. Price to Sales (P/S). This is similar to P/E, except that we compare the stock price to the revenue of a company instead of its earnings. This is good for companies that aren't profitable yet, since comparing negative P/E ratios seems a bit silly. Uber, for example, has a P/S of 7.40. If we use only P/S to compare Uber to Lyft, which has a P/S of 8.71, UBER seems to be the better investment since we're paying less for each dollar of revenue.
    3. Price to Earnings Growth (PEG). This ratio measures the stock price as a ratio to the company's earnings growth (typically over the next 1-3 years). This ratio is calculated as the P/E divided by the earnings growth rate. For example, if AAPL has a P/E of 28.3x and a growth rate of 1.3%, AAPL has a PEG of 22.6x. MSFT has a higher P/E (35.09x), but because of its higher growth rate of 8.9%, has a much lower PEG of 3.92x.

    We can use these ratios (and others) to identify whether stocks are relatively undervalued compared to other similar stocks, or we can compare stocks to the industry average. If we buy companies that are relatively cheaper compared to their peers, we should (in theory) perform better over time.

    Short Term Relative Value Trading Strategies

    We can also make relative value trades in the short term.

    A common retail trader's strategy is to buy a stock for a few days or a few weeks, hoping to scalp a few dollars and turn a profit. However, what if the market drops? Your stock could outperform the market by only falling 3% while the market falls by 10%. You were right but you still lost money due to your market exposure.

    Hedge funds also bet on stocks, except instead of looking for a return on a single stock, they bet on stocks going up or down relative to another. They buy stock A and short-sell stock B, hoping A will outperform B. This is aptly named the Long-Short trading strategy or the pairs trade. If A falls 3% but B drops 5%, the hedge fund makes money overall.

    Short Term Relative Value Trade Examples

    How can we apply this to our trading? What if we think GME will outperform AMC? At $161 its may or may not be a good idea to be strictly long GME. However, we can hedge by shorting AMC. If all meme stocks crash, we still make money as long as GME doesn't fall as much as AMC does. If GameStop stays flat, we make money when AMC falls. (Of course, if you think AMC is the winner you can just inverse the above strategy)

    We can apply this strategy to stocks in similar industries such as GM/Ford, Visa/Mastercard, and Coke/Pepsi.

    A second example would be a pairs trade I closed earlier last week.

    Google has two classes of (publicly traded) shares: GOOGL (Class A) which has voting rights, and GOOG (Class C) which has none.

    Theoretically, GOOGL should always be more expensive because they have voting rights, but because Alphabet is conducting share buybacks of GOOG exclusively, GOOGL was cheaper for a while - We can see this in the trading view chart here.

    By buying GOOGL and shorting GOOG, I'm betting the gap between the two stocks will close. I don't care if the market rises, falls, or goes sideways. I don't even care if google falls 50%. The only thing I'm betting on is that GOOGL will be the same price as GOOG eventually, and after Alphabet announced it would start buybacks of both share classes, the gap closed.

    submitted by /u/ArchegosRiskManager
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    1000$ investment starting

    Posted: 31 Jul 2021 05:56 PM PDT

    Hey guys, I'm turning 18 in a few days and I have 1000$ in hand that I would like to invest into stocks. Any advice on what I should start with? This 1k is just essentially "pocket change" if that gives you an idea about if I need this money in the future or if I need it any time soon. I just prefer to not lose it and I don't mind holding for a longggggggg time.

    submitted by /u/JayDeesus
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    First ever Psychedelic Company being cross listed on NYSE this Thursday august 5th The company CYBIN! NYSE:CYBN

    Posted: 01 Aug 2021 11:20 AM PDT

    There mission is to revolutionize mental health care they just finished a 30M raise this past week and the stock has already recovered it was led by Cantor Fitzgerald. Cybin is the first ever psychedelics listed company on the NYSE American

    The other 4 listed company's on the Nasdaq are in the Billions of market cap which id think Cybin has the most upside just breaking $3.00 USD I'd expect this to be 4-5.00 in a short period possibly on uplisting

    Keep an eye they have been feature in over 120 editorials alone from time magazine to discovery this is a sleeping giant

    There ticker will be NYSE:CYBN. They have over 6 analyst reports coverages from Stifle , HC Wainwright, Cannacord , Roth Capital , Argis

    submitted by /u/Salty-Amount-2337
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    Anyone know good streamers/youtubers for watching earnings breakdowns?

    Posted: 01 Aug 2021 01:33 PM PDT

    Just had the thought that maybe there are some good investing streamers who kinda watch these earnings reports live almost like a TV show. IDK. Let me know if you guys know anyone. I'm a noobish investor so I'd be down to watch someone more experienced kinda break things down, look at charts and talk about stuff. Thanks.

    submitted by /u/PaleontologistWest
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    Does anyone know some good newsletter about the stock market?

    Posted: 01 Aug 2021 10:08 AM PDT

    Hi. I want to get into investing but don't know where to start I tried with forex trading, but it seems too risky and time consuming process. I want to get into longer term investments. So can someone recommend me some good literature or Sth.

    submitted by /u/goodboyWOOF
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    The 'market' did a way better job pricing AMZN than the analysts.

    Posted: 31 Jul 2021 08:23 PM PDT

    For the last ~1 year I watched my largest holding struggle to break ~$3300 (and regularly drop well below that) all while analysts were seemingly constantly ratcheting up the price targets... to the point that the MIN was $3750 & HIGH was $5500. AMZN seemed like a no-brainer steal in comparisons.

    As this continued a 'little itch' in the back of my brain on how this massive disconnect could keep going on for so long... why aren't people catching on to this seemingly incredible deal!

    Then Thursday's earnings hit... and what'dya know - the most recent 3 month range now seems totally reasonable ($3150-$3700).

    Please don't read this as me becoming an AMZN bear... still totally a bull (and will continue to be my largest position). Just reluctantly realizing my target returns are a bit further out & that I need to take all price targets with a whole-lot more salt.

    submitted by /u/Karnes
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    Roth IRA Question

    Posted: 01 Aug 2021 12:00 PM PDT

    So I recently turned 18 and opened a Roth IRA. If I put my money into more risky stocks when i'm younger but as I get older want to transfer those stocks/gains into lower risk etfs will I be tax free on those gains if I don't withdraw them from the account?

    submitted by /u/renibryson
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    UK trading platform discussion.

    Posted: 01 Aug 2021 08:52 AM PDT

    I'm wondering what platforms people are using to trade in the UK and why?

    I'm using trading212 for long term ISA investment and plus500 for short term stock gambling. Both were easy to set up and have the commission hidden in the spread.

    I'm looking for a mobile app type platform that will let me sell covered calls if I own 100 of a stock. I'd appreciate it if anyone knows of any apps that can do this.

    submitted by /u/JubileeTrade
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    Is PayPal's ($PYPL) dip worth buying?

    Posted: 01 Aug 2021 01:49 PM PDT

    PayPal ($PYPL) just barely missed there expected earnings triggering a huge selloff. Which, to me, is such an emotional overreaction but I've seen this happen to companies who have missed expectations by amounts much less than seen here.

    PayPal has been on my watchlist for some time and I'm lucky I didn't buy early in the week. Now well below $300 per share, is PayPal a great buying opportunity?

    For context my next move is coming down to buying this or buying a fractional share of google.

    submitted by /u/MasonAFK1
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    $AHT Please save me

    Posted: 01 Aug 2021 01:07 PM PDT

    Looking for some input on my AHT holding. I fell victim to buying at $6 pre-split. AVG is around $65. With no dividend currently and not much how on the horizon should I cut my losses and put my money elsewhere or brave it out? Any info I am missing? thanks, guys

    put around 6k in there and sitting around 1.5 lol

    submitted by /u/biglosses69
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    This may be a silly question, please help though.

    Posted: 01 Aug 2021 10:41 AM PDT

    I set a Limit buy for tomorrow morning @ $.15/share. If it opens lower than that, will it automatically fill my order or will it wait until it rises to .15 before triggering a buy? I was trying to set it to buy no matter the price on the open but I can't set a market order for OTC stocks. Thanks in advance!

    submitted by /u/Here_was_Brooks
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    This week will be interesting!

    Posted: 01 Aug 2021 02:24 PM PDT

    This week will be interesting(although not as crazy as last week) because some of reddit's most mentioned companies will have earnings and they include:

    • Square
    • Cloudflare
    • Alibaba
    • Etsy
    • Roku
    • DraftKings
    • Virginia Galactic
    • Fastly
    • Corsair
    • Moderna
    • Beyond Meat
    • Activison Blizzard
    submitted by /u/gorays21
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    Some ETF help please

    Posted: 01 Aug 2021 12:07 PM PDT

    Hi there,

    wanting to invest in some ETFs. My broker uses mostly iShares.

    Was thinking of three strategies:

    1) 70:30 Core MSCI world:MSCI EM

    2) 65:25:10 Core:EM:Far east ex Japan

    3) 65:20:5:5:5: Core:EM:Far East:Electric Cars:Clean Energy

    What do you think?

    submitted by /u/nisardo27
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    Any thoughts on Nordic Semiconductor ASA?

    Posted: 01 Aug 2021 06:04 AM PDT

    Hi guys,

    I am following this company closely, and I find it rather curious how little expectation or knowledge there is about it, considering the medium to long term expansion they have planned. For those who doesn't know, Nordic Semiconductor (NDCVF, NOD - Current Share price: $33) is a Norwegian semiconductor company specialised in wireless technology for IoT (Bluetooth and now Wi-Fi).

    They are a market leaders for wireless connectivity devices and embedded systems engineering, specially for short-range IoT though Bluetooth LE and other solutions. Currently, they are expanding to Wi-Fi connectivity.

    We all know the potential here - Low-power consumption connected and IoT devices are a fundamental part for many, multi-purpose devices, and a constant research area for power-electronics and short-mid-long range devices. Along with the wide, extended IoT adoption, new low-energy connectivity protocols and devices have stronger long-term prospects than ever. You name it: Peripherals, gaming, VR&AR, smart-home, wearables, automotive...Literally every connected device benefits from their research and production, and the more powerful these devices are, the more optimised in terms of range and energy consumption they have to be.

    As far as I could see, they have a quite wide, living products, patents and protocols portfolio, also extending over time:

    • ICs (Integrated Circuits) for short-range IoT (BT, Zigbee protocols, RF) - Their current revenue generator with a high-volume production.
    • Embedded Systems for medium-range IoT (creating new Wi-Fi team/assets in 2020) - They aim to generate revenues from 2023 onwards. Now, primary focused on large R&D investments, starting January 2021.
    • Development tools for long-range IoT (SiPs, LTE) - Also with large R&D investments, aiming to commercial phases in >5 years.

    The financials show a robust and steady growth behaviour for their Net Equity and Net Income compared to the same last year Q's. They also show a ROE between 3% and 5% for each quarter. Their P/E is rather high, which is perhaps due to high reinvestment in R&D and a high amount of products still out of the commercial phase.

    Besides, they have a strong position in Europe for Bluetooth and overall short-range devices and certifications. Taking into account the future expansion to Wi-Fi and short- and medium-range devices, it looks promising. Almost 75% of their employees are researchers.

    What are your thoughts? Anyone holding NOD here? For this current share price, I could see a nice investment strategy for the long-term here. What do you guys think?

    submitted by /u/RainManKnight
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    China restrictions on stocks

    Posted: 31 Jul 2021 08:38 PM PDT

    can anyone help me understand how the new regulation by China is crushing the value of chinese equities? From what i have heard it most applies to new applications for listings (example DIDI), but why is this impacting existing companies like JD. I am a big believe of the company (growing at 50% YoY and EV/S under 1), how does the regulation affect them? Not disputing it does, just trying to understand everyones concern

    submitted by /u/bino2008
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    Recent China Afterschool Stock Crash

    Posted: 01 Aug 2021 07:08 AM PDT

    China announced that they will ban all for profit after school tutoring companies which will cause all Chinese education stocks to plummet.

    How bad does this new stock crash affect companies from getting into the education tutoring market in the Asia region?

    FYI: I'm not very knowledgeable in stocks just a market researcher here

    submitted by /u/idkwhat2putasmyuserr
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    Investing $1 everyday into $PSEC

    Posted: 01 Aug 2021 05:24 AM PDT

    I wanted to get opinions on if investing $1 everyday is a good idea on one stock in general i am deciding if I should do it with $PSEC since it's one of the most owned stock I have In my portfolio and $1 a day isn't something I would notice missing anyways

    What do you think?

    submitted by /u/Enak92
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    there's a lot of talk about how to position during a recession

    Posted: 31 Jul 2021 08:19 PM PDT

    i just want to ensure everyone understand typical recessions dont spike and bounce like covid... look at 2008, it was a relatively slow burn from 07 to the bottom in 09, what my point is, is that you wont see a quick 25% drop, profit and then reinvest long. Bear markets can last months if not years and there will be many shakes in between that lead you to believe everything is fine. Looking back at charts 08, 01, all seem easily hedgable.. but look back 12 months or 6 months, there was many big fakes (in sept, growth in march) that made me believe we were going into correction. My point is, even if you position yourself for a recession, will you have the discipline to maintain that belief at the first uptick, there was many opportunities in the last 12 months that could have faked you out. I think it makes sense to buy on dips and maintain conviction

    submitted by /u/stocky2008
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