Stocks - Since everyone here has seen plenty of posts asking for long-term picks, does anyone have a stock they're avoiding like the plague? |
- Since everyone here has seen plenty of posts asking for long-term picks, does anyone have a stock they're avoiding like the plague?
- Richard Branson and Jeff Bezos are flying into space this month. If one or both of them don't survive, what happens to their companies?
- A word to new investors: HOLD!
- What’s a company that you’re confident is going to be around for the next 100 years?
- Why VRTX is a Deep Value Cash-Flow Machine
- Buying options that are deep ITM with a very low contract cost seem too good to be true. What's the catch?
- Airline Stocks
- Another one: Chinese antitrust regulator blocks Tencent's $5.3 billion video games merger
- First company to reach $5 trillion market cap
- Coca-Cola $KO
- Do you purchase/use products from companies you own shares just cause you own their shares?
- What high interest rates COULD do to different industries
- Perpetually buying stocks in foreign currencies; are there tax advantages?
- Brokerage Transfer
- Ok so to add on the post that gives advice to new investors about holding; make sure you get a viable stock to hold
- Is it possible to have multiple purchases orders dangling in the wind for the same investment capital? (explanation inside)
- Tip to new investors: profit on fear
- Put Option Help Needed
- Are getting good trade ideas important than knowing how to enter and exit?
- Is There Still A Bullish Case For Spotify? Time Is Running Out.
- Are there any advanced finance subs on Reddit?
- Laptop recommendations?
- Biogen - Best M&A move?
| Posted: 10 Jul 2021 06:38 AM PDT It can be for any reason, might be avoiding it because in five years the company will be gone, or because you want to see it go under a certain price, or because it's a pump and dump. Everything goes, I'm just curious to see the opposite side of things, since I feel we get plenty of requests about gold mines and not fool's errands. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 10 Jul 2021 10:19 AM PDT Virgin and Amazon are the only companies in history to have leaders to fly into outer space. The risk of death is real for both men. 1.4% of astronauts die during their flight, based on all data from the 1960s to present.
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| A word to new investors: HOLD! Posted: 09 Jul 2021 06:30 PM PDT I've been thinking about a post I read here recently. Basically, someone said they started buying stocks six months ago and have been in the red since until finally breaking even this week. As a beginner, it's so difficult, because you're excited and you understand the market returns 7-10% per year vs. nothing as cash. So six months later, when your carefully selected stocks stink, it feels bad, man. I am here to tell you to HOLD your ridiculous stock, and to wrap your head around the idea that a LOT of people have been at this for a very long time. Your stocks are doing badly because people years before you thought the same thing you did: this is a great company! And they doubled, tripled, whatevered their money, and are now selling. This results in you having an unrealized loss or reduced unrealized gain that only becomes real IF YOU SELL. But you don't have to realize it. Because you haven't lost money. Your stock has simply lost its SHORT-TERM momentum. One of my recent stinkers has been TSM which I bought at the literal top in February. There are lots of stocks like this in tech, renewables, anything ARK. Same with crypto. And all for the same reason – people are cashing out! An analogy would be sitting at a slot machine right after somebody else just hit the jackpot. Bummer in the short term, but it's still a good machine! Back to TSM, here's a scenario: Imagine someone buys at the literal top in January 2018 @ $46. Then the stock drops and is stuck below that for 20 months straight until October 2019 when it finally breaks above $46. From there, it hangs out around the low 50s for several months until July 2020 when it nearly TRIPLES in value peaking above $140 in Feb 21. Sure, the pattern mimics what happened in the broader market, but that's the point. A TSM holder would be up over 250% today. That's sure better than 7-10%. Right now, my human emotion is thinking "boo-hoo, I am still down now while others are doing well." But that's not what matters. For most people, buying individual stocks isn't a game of making a quick buck. It's a game of being capable, consciously and financially, to wait it out – sometime for years – for these kinds of gains. This concept was never explained to me, but I think it's an important lesson for beginners so they don't sell a good thing and get taken advantage of when they miss the rocket emoji. [link] [comments]  |
| What’s a company that you’re confident is going to be around for the next 100 years? Posted: 09 Jul 2021 03:46 PM PDT If you were to create an investment account for your future grandchildren today, what companies would you put in the portfolio, that you're confident in that these companies are going to be around for along time? [link] [comments]  |
| Why VRTX is a Deep Value Cash-Flow Machine Posted: 10 Jul 2021 07:57 AM PDT This is my first time writing a company analysis/dd so feel free to leave any criticism in the comments. Hope this analysis is helpful to some of you. Vertex Pharmaceuticals is a large-cap American biopharmaceutical company which uses rational drug design to develop treatments for several disorders. The stock has been long overlooked by retail investors but is no stranger to institutions -- massive hedge funds such as Renaissance Technologies, Point72 and Man Group are all long with large positions. Currently, there are several catalysts for growth in the upcoming years for Vertex. Here is some analysis regarding Vertex's operations, financials and future growth prospects…
"Cystic fibrosis, a rare, progressive, life-threatening disease, results in the formation of thick mucus that builds up in the lungs, digestive tract, and other parts of the body. It leads to severe respiratory and digestive problems as well as other complications such as infections and diabetes. Cystic fibrosis is caused by a defective protein that results from mutations in the CFTR gene. While there are approximately 2,000 known mutations of the CFTR gene, the most common mutation is the F508del mutation. Trikafta is a combination of three drugs that target the defective CFTR protein. It helps the protein made by the CFTR gene mutation function more effectively. Currently available therapies that target the defective protein are treatment options for some patients with cystic fibrosis, but many patients have mutations that are ineligible for treatment. Trikafta is the first approved treatment that is effective for cystic fibrosis patients 12 years and older with at least one F508del mutation, which affects 90% of the population with cystic fibrosis or roughly 27,000 people in the United States" – US Food and Drug Administration Trikafta is the first FDA approved treatment for cystic fibrosis which is capable of treating 90% of patients with the disorder. Vertex currently has a firm economic moat on medicinal treatment for cystic fibrosis as it is the only company with FDA approved drugs for treating the disorder. Trikafta accounts for 70% of Vertex's revenues and has the potential to drive far more profit for the company with the massive expanding global cystic fibrosis therapeutics market. Grand View Research expects the global cystic fibrosis therapeutics market to grow at a rate of 16.7% CAGR until 2025. Vertex could see growth which far exceeds that of this market due to its ever-growing share in the market. Essentially, the global cystic fibrosis therapeutics market growth rate + Trikafta's market share growth rate would equate to Vertex's revenue growth rate with Trikafta. With the drug's increasingly large presence abroad due to the new approval in Canada as well as across Europe in several countries (57% increase in product revenue in Europe from 2020-2021), Trikafta could become an absolute cash-flow machine for Vertex. At the cost of $311,000 for Trikfta, Vertex could mass up to $8.4B in annual revenue if it were to capture the entire US market share alone. While the drug brought in just over $3.8B in 2020, there is still lots of room for Trikafta in Vertex's domestic market, not to mention the great potential to scale internationally which has already been initiated. *https://www.grandviewresearch.com/press-release/global-cystic-fibrosis-cf-therapeutics-market
Revenue YoY Growth: 33.10% LTM Diluted EPS YoY Growth: 81.55% LTM Cash from Operations YoY Growth: 63.03% LTM Past 5 years Annual Earnings Growth: 53.9% As Trikafta's patent has 16 years until expiry (expiry in 2037), Vertex's largest source of revenue is here to stay and will continue to grow with the increasingly large demand for such treatment. Any new advances in pipeline for Vertex would also drive tremendous growth for additional revenues. On average, analysts are forecasting earnings growth greater than 20% for the upcoming year, however, with the average earnings surprise of 11.65% from the last four quarters, I believe that earnings growth >30% is fair and to be expected. Vertex's high return on equity of 23.0% exceeds the industry average of 16.6% which demonstrates the company's ability to successfully generate income and growth from equity financing – another positive and promising sign for future growth.
VRTX has become increasingly cheap over the past few years. The stock has risen significantly in the same time that its P/E multiple has significantly decreased. The stock now trades at 18.81x earnings, 15.96x forward earnings, which represents a 1.59 PEG. This puts VRTX far below the Nasdaq biotechnology industry average of 30x earnings. VRTX is currently extremely cheap based on the most common valuation metrics. Based on a discounted cash-flow analysis of VRTX*, an intrinsic value of $406.58 can be extrapolated which presents a >50% discount to its current share price of $197.74 (assumptions include a discount rate of 6.5% based on the calculation cost of equity). This is all to say that VRTX has some serious deep value and a return to industry average earnings multiples or simply maintaining a similar valuation based on earnings would provide drastic upside (>50%) based on future outlook.
Quick Ratio: 4.20 Current Ratio: 4.40 Debt/Equity: 0.00 LT Debt/Equity: 0.06 Vertex Pharmaceuticals' balance sheet is extremely strong with minimal debt relative to cash and current assets. The company has also made it clear that they are looking to use their large cash reserve for the acquisition of both drugs and of other pharmaceutical/biotech companies. There is virtually no risk debt-wise for Vertex – a rise in interest rates would not pose troubles to the company at all. Vertex's current financial health is certainly the best in the biotech industry.
Vertex is in the process of developing several breakthrough therapies for serious diseases and has shown promising success with many of their clinical trials. FDA approval for any of these products would be highly significant for Vertex and extremely rewarding for shareholders. In the event that Vertex is successful in their cell therapy for type-1 diabetes, they could potentially cure type-1 diabetes and thus would consequently capture a large share of T1D market that is expected to grow to $24B by 2029*. Vertex is continuing to advance in the development of molecular, cellular and genetic therapies aimed at treating many serious diseases. Overall, Vertex is in the process of developing revolutionary treatments that could significantly disrupt the biotech industry. Below is the stated progress on Vertex's R&D from the latest 10k… Beta Thalassemia and Sickle Cell Disease In December, we and our collaborator, CRISPR, announced positive interim data from 10 people with TDT or SCD treated with CTX001 and that 20 people with severe hemoglobinopathies have been dosed with CTX001 in the ongoing Phase 1/2 clinical trials. Enrollment and dosing are ongoing, and completion of enrollment in both clinical trials is expected in 2021. Alpha-1 Antitrypsin Deficiency Enrollment is ongoing in a Phase 2 proof-of-concept clinical trial for the corrector VX-864. We expect data from this clinical trial in the first half of 2021. We discontinued development of VX-814, our first corrector, based on the safety and pharmacokinetic profile of VX-814 observed in a Phase 2 clinical trial. APOL1-Mediated Kidney Diseases Enrollment is ongoing in a Phase 2 proof-of-concept clinical trial designed to evaluate the reduction of proteinuria in people with APOL1-mediated FSGS after treatment with VX-147. We expect data from this clinical trial in 2021. Type 1 Diabetes We are developing a cell therapy designed to replace insulin-producing islet cells in patients with T1D. We are pursuing two programs for the transplant of these functional islets into patients: transplantation of islet cells alone, using immunosuppression to protect the implanted cells, and implantation of the islet cells inside a novel immunoprotective device. In January 2021, the FDA cleared our IND for VX-880, the islet cells alone program. We expect to initiate a Phase 1/2 clinical trial evaluating this program in the first half of 2021. This clinical trial will involve an infusion of fully differentiated, functional islet cells, and chronic administration of concomitant immunosuppressive therapy, to protect the islet cells from immune rejection. Investment in External Innovation - We entered into a collaboration with Skyhawk Therapeutics, Inc., or Skyhawk, for the discovery and development of novel small molecules that modulate RNA splicing for the treatment of serious diseases. - We entered into a new collaboration with Moderna, Inc., or Moderna, aimed at the discovery and development of lipid nanoparticles and mRNAs that can deliver gene-editing therapies to lung cells for the treatment of CF. - We entered into a collaboration with Affinia Therapeutics, Inc., or Affinia, to gain access to a novel library of AAV capsids to support on our ongoing research and development efforts in genetic therapies, including DMD, DM1 and CF.
· $1.5B share repurchase program (June 2021-December 2022) · High net income margin: 49.00% · Large hedge fund ownership · Average analyst price target >$260 · Buy-Strong Buy consensus across Wall Street · No underperform or sell targets TDLR: Vertex Pharmaceuticals presents remarkable upside for growth with their current products which are continuing to gain market share in an ever-growing therapeutics market, as well as with several breakthrough therapies which have shown to have promising results in recent clinical trials. Such high growth prospects paired with an undervalued company with solid financials makes for a great investment especially at the cheap price it is currently trading at. **NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE** I am long 6 shares which may not seem like much but I am 18 and the position accounts for just under 10% of my portfolio. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 10 Jul 2021 09:55 AM PDT How can a call loose 81% of its value and still make a profit? With a price of $16, and strike of 2.50 and a contract cost of .05 the stock can go down to $3.00 and I still make money. Shouldn't the contract and strike be higher? One week expiration. Or is it just a Webull glitch? Also the options chain only shows on a few websites. Burst my bubble. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 10 Jul 2021 01:37 PM PDT I think airline stocks are going to have a big week next week. Last week was just terrible for the market overall so they went down, but Friday was a good indicator of what we could see when the market is normal. Flight numbers are basically back to pre COVID & 4th of July weekend there was millions of people flying. Europe opened flights from America which is huge. Companies like American Airline's for example $AAL are helping the US govt transport COVID vaccines as well. Earning reports are coming this month as well so we could see a big increase next week leading up to those earnings. And as much as I personally take COVID seriously, the Delta variant really isn't scaring anyone anymore. Travel is back, and so are airlines. [link] [comments]  |
| Another one: Chinese antitrust regulator blocks Tencent's $5.3 billion video games merger Posted: 09 Jul 2021 08:23 PM PDT The Chinese regulators seems to be serious with their crack down on the tech industry. After Alibaba (with Ant group), Didi just last week and now tencent, it seems no one is safe anymore. I guess this will bring tencent and other Chinese tech stocks further down on Monday. I know you should buy when there is blood in the streets, but considering all the other problems with Chinese stock like ADRs which are not really shares of the companies, questionable accounting practices in china and basically the non existence of the rule of law, Holding Chinese (tech) Stocks long term seems to be really a bad idea, even with the relatively low PE and high growth potential of the companies. [link] [comments]  |
| First company to reach $5 trillion market cap Posted: 09 Jul 2021 11:51 PM PDT the most likely candidates are obviously Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon. Some other options are Facebook, Tesla, Tencent..... I personally think Amazon will be first to reach the 5 trillion mark, but over time, the big 4 will likely all get there, just a matter of who gets there first. What do you all think? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 10 Jul 2021 10:58 AM PDT What's is your take on KO especially since it's been down a little since last month. Is it a safe play for the rest of the summer? Also with opening the economy I would imagine the demand for KO products increase in the next few months! Appreciate your take on this. [link] [comments]  |
| Do you purchase/use products from companies you own shares just cause you own their shares? Posted: 10 Jul 2021 10:43 AM PDT For example, let's say you own shares from Colgate-Palmolive ($CL). If you were shopping for toothpaste, would you purchase Colgate because you own shares from the company? Or would you purchase a different brand and not think about it? [link] [comments]  |
| What high interest rates COULD do to different industries Posted: 10 Jul 2021 01:33 PM PDT This is all my own opinion, but I did some deep research into each industry and tried to make this post as objective as possible. I hope you get something out of this! In general: In high interest rates, bonds do better and stocks do worse than in lower interest rates. High interest rates means more difficulty growing. It also implies the risk free rate is high so bond yields must rise with it in order to have any demand for corporate paper. Basic Materials: The interest rate to commodity price index is inverted. This is because the demand for commodities falls with the level of economic activity. This can be seen quite clearly by comparing a chart of interest rates with commodity prices. The implications of high interest rates are divided across the industry. Commodity producers will have more difficulty staying profitable and expanding operations. Cash generation will be severely strained. Commodity buyers on the other hand will find that expenses are much lower and it easier to get competitive prices. There are some material producers that will suffer less than others. In general, smaller companies suffer more because the larger ones are more capable of providing the most competitive prices. Communication services: Communications services do well in low interest rates, and tend to struggle in higher rates. This sector is generally the most overpriced and most leveraged. Stock prices in this sector may decrease more than the average market does. In addition to lower stock prices, companies that require a lot of leverage will have difficulty expanding or continuing operations. Established companies that have less capital intensive operations will fare much better, but still won't be able to come up with the same revolutionary technologies that come from lower interest rate environments. Technology: This sector is unique because it is much newer and has not been exposed to high interest rates. If the current environment of startups are extended, many startups will find difficulty finding funding and small companies with high debt will face similar problems. For larger companies, a unique situation is presented. These companies are known for constant acquisitions and with high interest rates, all of the talent in niche tech businesses will suddenly look much more attractive. It is possible that the mega cap tech companies will be nearly unaffected because of their massive operating cash flows that are vital to normal life. Many companies in tech have become very large with a low interest rate for the entirety of their existence. It is possible that these companies suffer more than older companies of similar operations and size because of a lack of experience operating at higher interest rates. Industrials: These companies have mixed implications. On one end, commodities and other material input are cheaper, but on the other end there is less demand for industrial products in an economic slowdown. Revenue and cost of goods sold could be expected to decrease, creating smaller, more profitable businesses. A nice way to think about this is to examine the airplane manufacturing industry in a high interest rate environment. The manufacturer can acquire the materials and possibly prefabs for the plane for cheaper. The gross margin on the individual plane is higher as a result, but in the general economy, consumer activity is lower, so there is less traveling and a resulting lower demand for aircraft. Health Care: Health care is much less volatile than the average market because the demand for healthcare services is mostly disjoint from economic activity. The main concerns in health care are shared with the rest of the economy - mostly issues arising in debt refinancing and upgrading or acquiring fixed assets. Utilities: Utilities generally underperform in high interest rates. They take on more debt, require consistent servicing of fixed assets, and are slower to increase revenue than other industries. When operating conditions are staying similar (utility costs for consumers are not increasing much) and interest rates are high, utilities have a much more difficult time covering capex and depreciation. Consumer staples: Consumer staples are historically less volatile than most of the market. Consumers may not be buying luxury goods or a second home at high interest rates, but like healthcare, consumer staples are not things that are optional for most people. [Most?] Consumers are not going to stop purchasing food and toiletries just because their variable rate debts are becoming more costly. Finance: Finance tends to do well in high interest rate environments. They are able to write higher rate loans, and demand for loans increases. Insurance historically issued higher premiums. Financial firms can be viewed as the most obvious beneficiaries of high interest rates at the cost of most other industries. [link] [comments]  |
| Perpetually buying stocks in foreign currencies; are there tax advantages? Posted: 10 Jul 2021 02:43 PM PDT So, my cash starts it's life in GBP and will end its life in NZD. Is there a financial advantage to for example, buy a stock in USD versus RUB or CNY? I'm gonna have to exchange anyways. I'm wondering if there are tax advantages? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 10 Jul 2021 08:39 AM PDT I decided to transfer my holdings from Robinhood to Fidelity today. When I submitted the request online they estimated it would take 9 days to complete but I've seen people on Reddit say it's more like 3 days. I'm just curious if anyone else did this, got a date way further out than they expected, but then had it take less time than Fidelity estimated. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 10 Jul 2021 07:23 AM PDT The post does have good advice, it just forgot two main things about long term investment. Make sure you get a long term stock that won't be dipping anytime soon (AMD, Microsoft, Amazon, etc.) Yes, any company can go broke, but big corporations won't. You also want to sell and reinvest. Take in some profit and reinvest the rest. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 10 Jul 2021 10:21 AM PDT Ok, let's say that I have 10 grand in my investment account, and there's 5 stocks that I'm super interested in investing in with this 10k. Could I have 5 different orders lined up, where it would only trigger one order, based on which stock drops to the acquisition price first. Obviously, one concern is that multiple stocks could potentially hit said acquisition price at the same second, and then what does the automated system do in this regard. Well, I would imagine that you could have a pecking order, so that if Google, Facebook, Nvidia and Amazon all hit my strike price simultaneously, then you'd have a Tier order, that it would automatically select your preferred stock over the other ones. Does TD Ameritrade have something like this, because I can't find it if it does. I tried having multiple orders at the same time and it wouldn't let me do this. Tell me that this must be a thing, but that TD Ameritrade simply doesn't offer this type of order. Who does? [link] [comments]  |
| Tip to new investors: profit on fear Posted: 10 Jul 2021 10:15 AM PDT I think it is intuitive to buy the stocks that people are endlessly praising on here. These are often stocks that have performed well in recent history. Like buying Tesla after it shot up several hundred percent. I recommend doing something different-buy stocks in companies that are growing and have big futures, but people are afraid of in the short term. A couple of months back, the play was to load up on stocks that were held down due to the chip shortage. They crushed the market as the fear subsided. Look at all of the fear around Alibaba right now. Assuming alibaba will still be publicly listed years from now (I think it's very likely), you're just buying it at a discount. Buy the fear- just, cautiously. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 10 Jul 2021 10:00 AM PDT I currently own puts on a couple of stocks. They will be paying dividends in a couple days. Will I be obligated to pay the dividends if I am holding the puts when dividends are paid? Thank you very much in advance!! [link] [comments]  |
| Are getting good trade ideas important than knowing how to enter and exit? Posted: 10 Jul 2021 07:08 AM PDT there are tons of good screeners out there like finviz, tradingview but do you find the filtered results to be more useful than tools that deep-analyze them like "simply wall-street", koyfin etc? most of the time i trade by just looking at a few sources such as news and their fundamentals, that's all and so far i'm still making money. [link] [comments]  |
| Is There Still A Bullish Case For Spotify? Time Is Running Out. Posted: 09 Jul 2021 04:18 PM PDT Let me start by saying that I love Spotify and have been using it for over seven years. Everything about the platform is great and like many others, I have no plans of switching. The algorithm is unlike anything I've experienced on a music streaming app and has helped me discover countless new artists and genres. I'm sure you have felt a similar experience. Unfortunately, none of these amazing features should allow an investor to turn a blind eye to an obscene valuation. As history has shown, Wall Street will eventually make you pay the price. People quickly forget that Pandora Media was one of the world's leading internet radio providers before collapsing due to more competition, and eventually was bought by Sirius XM. Growing Sales Doesn't Justify its High Valuation. Spotify is currently valued as a high-margin, wide-moat business. Investors are willing to pay a premium now for profits that aren't expected for at least four to five years. Bulls love to only focus on the impressive revenue and MAU growth, huge podcast signings, and overall great product. The question I always follow up and ask is, "How much more room is there to grow?". Spotify has already absorbed close to 35% of the music streaming market as of 2019 and with a number of new platforms emerging each year, it's only going to get more competitive. Some reports are claiming that Spotify's share has declined closer to 30% as of 2020 but these are difficult to verify. If Spotify can't generate a profit now, when will they? Their explosive growth and exclusive content signings are costly and while it looks good in the near term, it doesn't imply a sustainable business model. On top of that, Spotify's high EV/EBITDA (can't use profit margins since negative) imply it's trading well above fair value vs. similar names such as Netflix, Sirius XM, or Apple. Some may argue that it is unfair comparing a low/negative EBITDA with companies that have stronger multiples, but to me, that is the point I'm trying to make. Spotify doesn't deserve this valuation given its low-margin business. If management can prove to investors that it can scale AND improve operating margins, then it will deserve the valuations of Netflix and Apple who already have 18-25% net income margins. Royalty Fees Remain a Major Concern. One of the biggest things I feel Wall Street fails to effectively understand with Spotify is its painful royalty fee structure. 73-80% of the company's revenue is subject to this in a given year, and it isn't going anywhere. There are no economies of scale or optimization strategies that will fix this; it's a constant payment to recording owners such as Universal Music or Sony that eat up the vast majority of Spotify's revenue. Figure 3 shows Spotify's unchanged gross margins for the last three years despite impressive top-line growth. It's even more surprising when you find out that Spotify is one of the worst paying streaming services out there. There isn't much more room for management to decrease payouts or else they risk losing more market share. Why is that important you might ask? Well, one of the hottest topics in music streaming right now (has been for years) revolves around artists, who are demanding to be paid more and rightfully so. This does not bode well for Spotify's low payout coupled with more streamers entering the market who will try to gain exclusive access from artists by paying them more. If Spotify decides to increase payouts to retain artists, it's only going to hurt their bottom line. Competition From Apple Music Will continue to be an issue for Spotify. Earlier this year, Apple unveiled its lossless streaming and spatial audio which is essentially a new enhanced way to listen to your favorite artists. It's a relatively new feature that launched in June and I believe as more people become aware of its better high-resolution stream offering, there is potential for them to take more market share from Spotify. I'm not claiming to be a music expert, but many blogs/articles are out there touting Apple's achievement and we have yet to hear from Spotify on their next move. They may match what Apple has released, but until then, it has become a new near-term risk for Spotify. Don't Sleep on Spotify's Debt. Although Spotify currently generates a healthy operating cash flow, it's important to recognize the $1.8 billion in debt on its balance sheet. In early 2021, Spotify raised $1.3 billion in unsecured notes. For what exactly? Many are speculating on the uses. An acquisition? General corporate purposes? Paying out more to artists? That remains to be said, but regardless this adds a new risk factor to Spotify if it cannot execute on a plan to pay off these notes due in 2026. The company does have a history of getting out of a high debt situation. Prior to going public in 2018, Spotify had raised approximately $1 billion of convertible debt at a roughly $10 billion valuation with private investors before selling it off to Tencent for the direct listing. Kind of weird when you're competitor owns a piece of your company after going public. Spotify is a tricky business to evaluate. There aren't any fair comparables (I've seen research analysts use Netflix and Amazon for multiples) to accurately value it. So, what is a fair value for a company that can generate massive revenues, has a superior product, but can't make a profit? I'm a firm believer that investors eventually lose patience with a company that doesn't improve bottom-line margins. Does it take five years? Ten? After going public in mid-2018, Spotify traded range-bound between $105-200 per share and appeared to be fairly valued until April 2020 when it began to take off. In my opinion, this more than 100% increase to $350 per share was not justified given the company's inability to improve profit margins while management gave no indication that things were drastically changing. Some will argue that higher sales and improving MAU's played a role but that was already factored into the share price prior to the run-up. Even though Spotify's share price is down 28% from its February high, there is still room to fall. Don't catch a falling knife as this name heads back to the low-$100's where it belongs. [link] [comments]  |
| Are there any advanced finance subs on Reddit? Posted: 10 Jul 2021 12:40 AM PDT I feel like no matter how long it's been.. most of the people here are newbies and the more sophisticated investors eventually stop participating. Looking to increase my knowledge in portfolio management, asset allocation and investment analysis. I feeling like I've stagnated in the learning curve. Are there advanced investment subs on Reddit anyone knows about? Like CFA level concepts and higher? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 10 Jul 2021 01:19 PM PDT I currently trade with my iPad and iPhone this works okay for the time being but I'm looking to get a laptop so I can have multiple charts up (I'm looking for a smaller laptop, I could always find more screens to add on but nothing bulky, slim and simple) [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 10 Jul 2021 11:24 AM PDT Biogen has recently gone through a major roller coaster seeing its somehow come out on top of a turbulent aducanumab approval process since 2019 in a move that may offset its patent failure in the Multiple Sclerosis market and its currently failing $1.5 billion bet in Sage Pharmaceuticals. Given Biogen's relatively concentrated product line (which has been historically successful in MS beginning with blockbuster drug Avonex in '94), what would be a potentially accretive merger/acquisition for the company? [link] [comments]  |
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