Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Options Trading Thursday - Jul 01, 2021 |
- r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Options Trading Thursday - Jul 01, 2021
- Do not fall for Krispy Kreme’s IPO trap: A legacy brand with no organic growth that will remain unprofitable
- Feds Seized Robinhood CEO's Phone in GameStop Trading Halt Investigation
- Robinhood to pay $70 million fine after causing ‘widespread and significant harm’ to customers
- An in-depth guide on how to perform deep research on a stock investment opportunity
- Virgin Galactic Announces First Fully Crewed Spaceflight
- I learned years ago that S&P500 increases at an average of 8% per year
- Any insight into why the Waltons have been selling billions in WMT stock the last few days?
- Recently came into 50k, looking to invest it in stocks and forget it - advice
- Here is a Market Recap for today Thursday, July 1, 2021
- What happened after-hours today at 4:45?
- NLST - A Sleeping Giant
- Reminder: Don't blindly trust analysts' ratings. It's possible for them to issue positive recommendations to help their own investments.
- Building a Growth at a Reasonable Price (GARP) Portfolio
- Nio Posts Record Monthly-Deliveries In June
- Investing in large well established corporations vs index funds
- Southwest Leading up to earnings 7/22 (LUV)
- Rob Arnott: Adding Tesla to the S&P 500 cost investors 41 basis points (0.41%)
- Is it possible to transfer shares to a sibling?
- PYPL - Unusual Options Activity (Bearish Sentiment). Red flag?
- Connecting the Dots: My High-Conviction Bet on Paysafe (PSFE)
- AGFY has long term potential, but looking to diversify within vertical farming
- The ABC's Portfolio
- Robinhood has 18 million accounts managing $80 billion after rapid one-year growth, IPO filing shows
- Looking to invest around 25% of my income over the next year into moderate risk stocks. Suggestions?
| r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Options Trading Thursday - Jul 01, 2021 Posted: 01 Jul 2021 02:30 AM PDT This is the daily discussion, so anything stocks related is fine, but the theme for today is on stock options, but if options aren't your thing then just ignore the theme and/or post your arguments against options here and not in the current post. Some helpful day to day links, including news:
Required info to start understanding options:
See the following word cloud and click through for the wiki: If you have a basic question, for example "what is delta," then google "investopedia delta" and click the investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned. See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 01 Jul 2021 04:16 PM PDT TL;DR - Short TF out of this or buy puts once available. A company riddled with a history of fraud, misleading investors, and deceitful accounting tactics is being dumped to the public by a large private equity firm. My god, this is one of the most blatant cash outs I've ever seen. CNBC was pumping this name all morning and interviewed their CEO who touted its new "omni-channel" strategy that will lead to better margins. My BS meter started going off so I decided to read their S-1 and see what was going on under the hood. Krispy Kreme used to be public in the 2000's and was acquired by JAB Holdings in 2016 for $1.35 billion following numerous scandals of channel stuffing and overstating revenues. Execs would pretty much order shipments of donuts to be sent to franchises and claim sales to meet quarterly estimates. Wild. There are other irregular accounting techniques used throughout the years along with bullying tactics used against franchise owners but you get the picture, won't go into detail. So now after a few years of being private sprinkled with an acquisition (Insomnia Cookies), execs/JAB decided it was time to cash out. In the presentation, Krispy Kreme emphasizes its strong revenue growth. This is a trap. Their organic growth is flat +1% at most when you strip out revenues from their debt heavy acquisition which is why their margins are just awful now and will not improve. It also excludes new shops that were recently opened because it does not matter if you are growing as a company if you can't achieve economies of scale. You see this a lot with companies who know they can't be profitable - emphasize revenue growth! Krispy Kreme shouldn't trade at more than 1x its revenue until it proves it can be profitable through some miraculous turnaround. At a $3 billion market cap currently, I forecast it is nearly 40% overvalued. This should be a $10 stock. Whoever the lead underwriter was for this IPO deserves a raise after pulling such a ridiculous multiple. I guess that's why companies go public when the market is at all-time highs. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Feds Seized Robinhood CEO's Phone in GameStop Trading Halt Investigation Posted: 01 Jul 2021 07:03 PM PDT | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Robinhood to pay $70 million fine after causing ‘widespread and significant harm’ to customers Posted: 30 Jun 2021 08:44 PM PDT Popular investing platform Robinhood has agreed to pay nearly $70 million to the financial industry regulatory authority (FINRA) to settle allegations that the brokerage caused customers "widespread and significant" harm on multiple different fronts over the past few years. That is the largest financial penalty ever ordered by the organization, a non-government entity authorized by Congress to oversee hundreds of thousands of brokers across the U.S. Specifically, FINRA's investigation found that millions of customers received false or misleading information from Robinhood on a variety of issues, including how much money customers had in their accounts, whether they could place trades on margin and more. The inaccurate information cost customers more than $7 million, FINRA found, and Robinhood is required to pay restitution to affected users. Other allegations addressed in the settlement include that Robinhood approved risky options trades for thousands of users when it should not have and did not do enough to prevent system outages in March 2020 that adversely affected millions of users. Robinhood has invested in improving the platform and is building out its customer service team, Robinhood spokesperson Jacqueline Ortiz Ramsay writes to CNBC Make It in an emailed statement about the settlement. "We are glad to put this matter behind us and look forward to continuing to focus on our customers and democratizing finance for all," she says. Robinhood was launched in 2014 and attracted millions of customers, many of them first-time investors, with its easy-to-use app and industry-changing commission-free trades. But it has come under fire multiple times in the past few years, most recently during the GameStop rally earlier this year when it restricted trading. FINRA's investigation found that Robinhood's customer service issues go back much further. Between 2018 and 2020, for example, Robinhood failed to report tens of thousands of customer complaints to FINRA that it was required to report, the organization says. FINRA also alleges that Robinhood has "negligently communicated false and misleading information" at different times since September 2016. Those misleading and false statements had hurt customers financially, FINRA found. The report also referenced the tragic story of a customer with details matching that of 20-year-old Alex Kearns, an investor who died by suicide in June 2020 after Robinhood showed a negative cash balance of $720,000 in his account. FINRA found that his balance was inaccurate, and that the value of his position was half of what the account displayed. While Robinhood has offered options trading since December 2017, FINRA says it has "failed to exercise due diligence before approving customers to place options trades," relying on algorithms, rather than people, to approve customers for the risky investing move. "As a result, Robinhood approved thousands of customers for options trading who either did not satisfy the firm's eligibility criteria or whose accounts contained red flags indicating that options trading may not have been appropriate for them," FINRA writes. Finally, the company failed to supervise the technology it uses to provide its core services between January 2018 and February 2021, resulting in a series of outages and systems failures. One of these outages occurred on March 2 and March 3, 2020, during extreme market volatility. FINRA says these outages cost certain individual customers tens of thousands of dollars. Robinhood did not admit nor deny the charges, and it still under investigation by the SEC. On Wednesday, the company published a blog post to highlight the changes it has implemented to address customer concerns. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| An in-depth guide on how to perform deep research on a stock investment opportunity Posted: 01 Jul 2021 10:42 AM PDT Having worked for equity research desks over the last few years, I wanted to write-up my thoughts and methodology as to how I look at potential opportunities, and some of the sources you can use to help you do that. The initial screenBefore assessing an opportunity in great detail, I quickly look at 3 main elements:
The main checksIf the company passes the checks above, I move on to looking at the opportunity in more detail, looking at the following:
The unconventional checksThe above covers off a lot of the foundational and straightforward checks you should perform for any investment opportunity, and should provide you with a good starting point for you to do further research if needed. Having said that, great research into opportunities doesn't stop here. The above might not tell the full story, especially when you are looking at opportunities with limited history or data (penny stocks for example). In that instance, it's necessary to do some unconventional research and think outside the box. Some of these points are inspired by a reddit post I found, which I highly recommend you read.
The sourcesGoogle is your best friend here, a lot of the things you need aren't hard to find, it's just about knowing what words to type into the search bar! Luckily, a few great websites exist these days that you can use:
The conclusionThe above should hopefully provide you with a good framework of how to assess opportunities, the approach to take and types of questions you should be asking. This will be lengthy and confusing to begin with, but the more companies you look at and assess, the quicker and easier this whole approach will become. There are angles I haven't covered in here, such as how to size and time opportunities, in the bigger context of how to shape up your whole portfolio. That is a whole other set of which I will leave for another time. If you are keen to read more about these, let me know! [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Virgin Galactic Announces First Fully Crewed Spaceflight Posted: 01 Jul 2021 07:27 PM PDT
Curious to hear your thoughts on SPCE. Anyone holding this stock? If not, will you buy? If yes, will you hold through the flight? I think this is one of those flip a coin stocks. If there was a mechanical issue, flight delay, or even a crash, this stock will plummet into the ground. But if the flight was a success, I can see it doubling in value overnight. Currently up 27% after hours. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| I learned years ago that S&P500 increases at an average of 8% per year Posted: 01 Jul 2021 09:58 AM PDT It's supposed to be an average rate of about 8% per year. Currently: UP .84% in one week UP 2.18% in one month UP 7.82% in three months UP 38.75% in one year UP 113% in five years The markets seem so disconnected from reality that dips aren't even allowed to happen. Stocks only go up? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Any insight into why the Waltons have been selling billions in WMT stock the last few days? Posted: 01 Jul 2021 10:25 AM PDT Robson Alice and Jim Walton have all sold well over a billion each in the last couple of days, and another billion or so each over the last month or so. What gives? I do not hold WMT, it was in my watchlist. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Recently came into 50k, looking to invest it in stocks and forget it - advice Posted: 30 Jun 2021 07:33 PM PDT So I recently received 50k and I don't need it and am looking to capitalize on it long term. I'm 27, and was looking to invest it completely in stocks that are pretty much guaranteed to generate me a return. I decided on a 3 way split between Microsoft, visa, and NVIDIA. Is this a good choice? Or would you have other recommendations? I'm not looking to take massive gambles on stocks that may or may not moon. Just want something concrete. Thanks Update: I see people recommending ETFs I already have 85k in ETFs. I was just looking to try my hand exclusively at stocks. Also I have a financial advisor, they recommend I put the entire 50k into an aggressive mutual fund managed by my bank. Problem is I'm Canadian and the MER fee is around 2.5%…. Feel like that is just wasted money? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Here is a Market Recap for today Thursday, July 1, 2021 Posted: 01 Jul 2021 01:20 PM PDT PsychoMarket Recap - Thursday, July 1, 2021 The rally in stocks continued, with the S&P 500 (SPY) once again recording fresh intraday highs in the first trading day of the third quarter. The Nasdaq (QQQ) closed roughly even, as the rally in technology stocks takes a breather. The Dow Jones (DIA), which lagged the other two major indexes for all of June, continued its recovery. Market participants are encouraged a stronger-than-expected gain on private payrolls and tempered inflationary fears. Looking ahead, market participants wait for Q2 earnings season and the incoming June Jobs Report, which is expected to be released tomorrow. ADP's June private payroll report showed private payrolls increased faster than expected. This underscores the ongoing economic recovery with the US economy reporting its sixth straight monthly increase in employment. Job openings rose by 692,000 versus the 600,000 expected. Consumer confidence has also risen and pointed to Americans' increased propensity to spend, with the Conference Board's consumer confidence index racing to its highest level since February 2020. During the second quarter, the technology, communication, real estate, and energy sectors were the best performers, underscoring the rotation from "reopening" and cyclical stocks that led the market higher earlier in the year back into technology and growth stocks. The rotation coincided with tempered fears, with the market rocketing higher after an initial 4% sell-off following the release of the April Consumer Price Index. It seems the market has now accepted Powell and other monetary official's narrative that current inflationary pressures are "transitory" and due mostly to pandemic-induced disruptions. Looking ahead, market participants wait for the June Jobs Report and are gearing up for Q2 earnings season, with earnings expected to continue being super-charged by stronger than expected demand from savings-loaden consumers and the continued reopening of the US economy thanks to effective distribution of the coronavirus vaccine. So far, analysts are looking for S&P 500 earnings to grow by 61.9% year-on-year in aggregate, according to FactSet data – an estimate UBS's Head of Equity Derivatives Research Stuart Kaiser said may still be "need to be revised higher." Highlights
"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty" - Winston Churchill [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| What happened after-hours today at 4:45? Posted: 01 Jul 2021 08:10 PM PDT Noticed a lot of tech stocks that looked like this today: https://i.imgur.com/iCyJ0LH.jpg Just curious if something happened. Just a coincidence? Massive ETF reshuffling? Stock exchange reporting error? They all spiked around 4:45pm EST. Sorry if this is a common occurrence, I've never noticed it before. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 01 Jul 2021 07:10 PM PDT Been following this for a bit. First time seeing some legit news and being in the top 3 stocks to watch. Anyone have thoughts on this or where it could go after a settlement with big tech? I'm sure it's happened before but not sure where to even begin thinking re upside. Not financial advice https://insiderfinancial.com/4-otc-stocks-gaining-momentum-ggii-htzgq-nlst-pbya/181727/ [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 01 Jul 2021 02:18 PM PDT Many investors incorporate analysts' ratings into their due diligence process. However, they can be a big conflicts of interest, as investment banks are allowed to give recommendations on investments they own. It's easy for dishonest firms to buy a position and later go on news shows, like CNBC and Cramer, to tell people they should be buying the stock, too. Analysts' recommendations hold sway with the public since they are the "experts" working at prestigious firms, like Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs. Here's a clip from a Frontline documentary on the 2000 dot-com crash, where analysts admitted to going on the news to pump up and be "cheerleaders" for companies that paid their firm to handle their IPO's. As you recall, the dot-com crash was largely caused by people going euphoric for any company going IPO. This clip illustrates the investment banks' and their analysts' roles in the euphoria and how they do not always have your best interest in mind. Personally, I think investment banks should have some sort of oversight or regulations on their recommendations and price targets, since, currently, they can easily just issue positive opinions to pump and dump their own investments. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Building a Growth at a Reasonable Price (GARP) Portfolio Posted: 01 Jul 2021 06:23 PM PDT I've been struggling these past few months at settling on a portfolio that I was happy with. I am young (23), so I wanted my investments to take advantage of that by being more aggressive with growth. At the same time, I realize that the current market is overextended, and a lot of the companies I really like are trading with a lot of that growth priced in. So, I wanted to put together a portfolio that would satisfy my risk/reward tolerance without having to pay a hefty premium. The two pieces of advice that I greatly resonate with are:
So I wanted to keep the number of stocks low (<10) and put my money in companies for which I have high conviction. I started out by first creating a list of sectors that I think are best set up for hyper-growth in the next 10-20 years. For me, those are:
Obviously, that list is not exhaustive, but those are the areas I feel the most comfortable with and in which I can see the long-term potential. I used that list as a starting point to look into companies and solidify the ones that will make up my portfolio. Some of the positions are more speculative than others, but I have found to have a compelling enough business model for me to invest in. If you have any criticism or suggestions, please comment below! I'm always looking to learn and discover great companies! Portfolio Holdings:FB For me, this was a no-brainer. The fundamentals are absurdly strong; pretty much no debt with a boatload of free cash. Consistent share buybacks (although not much) and increase in revenue. Outside of the main platform, it owns Instagram and Whatsapp which are incredibly sticky apps. Not to mention all the other projects they have going on (Occulus, FB Watch, etc.). What appealed to me the most was the fact that their ROIC is one of the best compared to the other FAANG stocks. There's also still room for ARPU to grow, especially on the international level. Instagram is also getting reworked to increase monetization. This stock is still undervalued/fairly valued and has, in my opinion, a lot more growth compared to some of the other FAANG companies. SOFI I wanted a piece of the fintech space, but the industry leaders PYPL and SQ are way too expensive for me to justify starting a position now. Comparatively, SOFI is trading way below their multiples and there's a lot to like about this company. With SPACs, a lot of the time the fundamentals do not match up to the hype they receive. However, SOFI's Q1 report showed tremendous YOY growth with promising guidance. They also show an increase in the number of users that use more than one of their services, which is an extremely important part of their identity. Now bears may say that this company lacks a moat because traditional banks can just enter the space easily, however, that's not considering one of the most compelling parts of this company, which is their acquisition of Galileo, a payment processor that is integrated with over 90% digital banks in North America and over 70 of the top 100 FinTech companies. So, even as more competitors enter the space, SOFI stands to benefit from that. Not to mention their management team is stacked with talent. What really sealed the deal for me was the vision of CEO Anthony Noto. In a recent interview, Noto states that the reason SOFI hasn't gone international, despite the interest, is that they wanted to keep refining the product and make sure it can suit the user as best as it can before expanding overseas. This is a CEO that really cares about what they're building and the people who use it. There's a lot of tailwinds for this company, and even if the fed does increase interest rates in 2022/23, they only stand to benefit. DKNG This position hinges on political policy, but I'm optimistic about it given how smooth the process of legalizing online betting in the US has been so far. The balance sheet may not be the cleanest, but companies like these typically spend a lot upfront in the form of CACs, and they've done an amazing job in that regard at making this company a household brand. Q1 2021 reports that monthly unique payers (MUPs) increased 114% yoy. There's so much growth ahead in the short and long term. Over half the country has legalized betting (in some shape) in 3 years. The gambling market size is predicted to undergo hyper-growth in the next 10 years. Furthermore, DKNG has expressed interest in the esports scene, which is also something that has and will see explosive growth. With that all said, I don't think the stock is cheap, and there are definitely a lot of risks here, but I believe in what they've done so far and can see a lot of upside in the long term. ABBV I was between this and BMY, and I might end up just going 50/50 in both. Great fundamentals, a lot to like. Strong top-line revenue growth yoy and a lot of free cash flow. Share buybacks every year, except for the most recent when they issued shares to raise money for their acquisition. There's some concern that HUMIRA, their most popular drug which makes up about 50% of their revenue, has its exclusivity period ending 2023, but their recent acquisition of Allergen positions them well for the future. ABBV is certainly not a crazy hypergrowth stock, but they still have room for growth and their dividend is king. Especially now, when it's trading at a very reasonable valuation, it's a great time to buy in. BABA I'm sure this stock needs no explanation on this sub. I really think this stock, or the likes of TENCHY, belongs in every portfolio that's focused on long-term growth at a reasonable price. So unless you're extremely against Chinese companies and the risk they may present, this is an absolute steal at these prices. In fact, right now most U.S companies are overvalued whereas almost every Chinese stock is undervalued. COIN I stayed far away from buying into this company when it IPO'd. Now it has fallen to a pretty reasonable valuation, so I decided to start a small position. I hold a small crypto portfolio myself and although I don't think crypto will replace fiat money, I still see a lot of potential in it long term for a variety of uses. If you don't believe in crypto at all, then it's a lot harder to justify buying into this company. COIN itself is one of the most popular crypto exchanges and they posted blistering numbers in their 2021 Q1 report. Granted, a lot of that was tied to the initial explosion of crypto in mainstream media, but the conservative projections for the full year of 2021 are still great. Crypto is still in its infancy in terms of mainstream support and use and the potential TAM is massive. That said in the short term, there will be a lot of volatility with this stock. That's why I'm starting with a very small position, with the intention to add if the numbers and guidance continue to impress. Bear cases made of COIN usually rests on the fact that there is nothing proprietary about COIN or that they depend too heavily on transaction fees, which I fully acknowledge, but they have the name recognition and the biggest userbase, and it'll be up to their management team to make the right moves and continue to innovate. I'm still learning about the crypto space, but there's a lot more than just a means of exchange. CLF American steel. Steel futures have been unstoppable lately, with the re-opening and word that an infrastructure deal is in the works, there's a lot to like about steel. News of China pulling back from steel exports also allows American steel to be more competitive in the marketplace. Yet, despite all these catalysts, the prices of companies like CLF are still lagging behind. This is not your typical growth play, and I personally see this as a short-term (6-12 months) position, due to steel's cyclical nature. I'll also admit I got into this a few months before when CLF was sitting at 18 a share. Still, CLF is poised to gain a lot, and quite a lot to like about this company. The management team under Lourenco Goncalves has revitalized CLF, making big acquisitions of AK Steel and ArcelorMittal USA. He's also recently gone and raised Q2 2021 guidance, and there's reason to believe that even that was conservative for how hot the industry is currently. If you're interested in learning more about the thesis behind steel, I'd suggest checking out r/Vitards. Anyways, I don't know if I'm going to hold this position for say 10+ years, so I'll be looking to capitalize on some short-term gains and use those profits to either open up a new position or fuel my current investments. TDOC This is also a very speculative position, similar to COIN. After the major pullback, I believe TDOC is at a very fair evaluation. Despite posting another quarter without profit, there's a lot to like about this company. They have one of the highest NPS scores, significantly greater than AMZN and APPL, which is something that's very compelling and which is something the balance sheet doesn't reflect. Combine that with the fact that they have captured a big chunk of the market, with healthcare professionals and big institutions, makes the company very, very sticky. Even if it only is the "Zoom for healthcare," the quality is strong enough that users won't just drop it for just any other substitute. But it's not just the "Zoom for healthcare". The acquisitions it has made, both BetterHelp and Livongo, have amazing implications and have yet to show their full potential on TDOC's balance sheet. There's still so much of the healthcare space that can be innovated, and TDOC is primed to take over. For right now, I'm OK with TDOC being unprofitable even with the pandemic pushing it along so well. That tells me they're funneling their revenue back into research and development to continue to build up its services and revenue streams. I also believe that telehealth is still in its infancy, and even though it was massively adopted during COVID, that only accelerates its long-term use and adoption by a little bit. It's going to take a while before it becomes sophisticated enough for people to see the value. This is a long-term play to which I will be consistently adding. BARK Barkbox features in delivering monthly care packages for dogs on a subscription basis. This is something that's not as hyped as EVs, but pet care is a fast-growing market that sees more spending each year. In fact, quarantine boosted the number of pet owners in the US dramatically. Barkbox has seen tremendous yoy growth in revenue and subscriptions, with a CAGR, gross margins, and a returning customer rate that beats the industry leader CHWY as well as other popular brands. BARK has made a lot of partnerships with the likes of AMZN, WMT, TGT, etc., and looks to continue to expand vertically in the space of dog hygiene/medicine/food. All of this while trading at a much lower multiple than the other big pet care brands. The management team is fantastic. Manish Joneja, CEO of BARK, has 2 decades of experience as director of Amazon global exports and expansion and 5+ years on eBay as product lead. Carly Strife and Henrik Werdelin have been featured in Forbes 30 under 30 and Top 100 Most Creative/Top 100 people in tech, respectively. The bear case of this company is that they have no moat, but their customer retention speaks a lot to brand loyalty and satisfaction. CHWY also has a box subscription service for dogs, however, it's nowhere close to as popular as BARK. BARK is also expanding internationally, starting first with Australia. Will it get to where CHWY is? That part isn't clear and it depends on how well BARK is able to build on what it has and expand what it has to offer. But the stock has a lot of room to run given the current valuation, and the product is sticky enough to either allow them to succeed or be a target for an acquisition. - I want to get into a genomics stock but I haven't read up enough to be confident in opening a position yet. I think I'd either go with ARKG, or the likes of CRSP/BEAM/XTG. I have my eye on a couple of companies that I would love to get into for the right price. However, they are currently way too overvalued for my liking.
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| Nio Posts Record Monthly-Deliveries In June Posted: 01 Jul 2021 03:25 AM PDT Chinese electric vehicle maker Nio said on Thursday deliveries more than doubled in June on a year-on-year basis, and climbed back sharply sequentially despite the ongoing global semiconductor chip shortage. The Shanghai-headquartered EV maker delivered 8,083 vehicles in June, up about 116% when compared with year-ago numbers, and also reported a 20.4% jump from May, when sales were hurt due to the volatile chip supplies. This is the highest number of monthly deliveries posted by Nio ever. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Investing in large well established corporations vs index funds Posted: 01 Jul 2021 01:55 PM PDT Forgive my newbie question, but why not invest in 5-10 large companies such as Microsoft, apple, visa as opposed to index funds or ETFs? Most ETFs have these in their top 10 holdings anyways, so the risk profile to may increase due to less diversification but these companies are at low risk of failure to begin with in the long run anyways. Wouldn't this portfolio outperform most ETFs/index funds? Edit: I should clarify my definition of "large companies" I am referring to conglomerates that have diversified revenue streams which encompasses Microsoft, apple, Amazon. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Southwest Leading up to earnings 7/22 (LUV) Posted: 01 Jul 2021 06:36 PM PDT Airlines have been getting hammered recently due to the Delta variant, which makes sense why it's hard to get good revenue when things open up and then close back down again. One of the first airlines to announce their earnings is Southwest and American. Southwest being only domestic to United States really, still seems like the preferred travel in terms of ease and customer service. Currently their price sits at $53.84 as of July 1, and they just endured a brutal month that took them down almost 13%. They seem to be making a comeback after recent news on Boeing 737 purchases from other airlines and increased demand for the summer flights. I see this making a nice steady upward movement for the summertime as flights become more and more packed domestically. If you can't fly international, many will want to get out of their area still somewhere in the states. I'm thinking this month they could hit $57-$58 before earnings, and I fully expect earnings to be good since most of their travel isn't disrupted by international borders being closed. Gas prices are going up though, and the Middle East basically emphasized that there will be less oil than more circulating for now. This could eat at airline costs, also stunting their growth. Southwest is hovering still somewhere close to pre-pandemic levels and never really broke out to new levels. I'm thinking airlines will make a comeback this month as summer travel proves to be desired. Thoughts on stock price this week, the week after the 4th of July, up till and after earnings? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rob Arnott: Adding Tesla to the S&P 500 cost investors 41 basis points (0.41%) Posted: 01 Jul 2021 05:40 PM PDT Rob Arnott of Research Affiliates found that adding Tesla to the S&P 500 was bad for investors, because it was such a large addition to the index at such a high valuation. Arnott and his colleagues estimate investors Tesla caused a drop in performance of 41 basis points (0.41%) compared to if Standard and Poor's had not added Tesla. He says this type of buying high and selling low is typical for capitalization weighted indexes. Short article, 8 pages. Worth a read. typo edit [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Is it possible to transfer shares to a sibling? Posted: 01 Jul 2021 08:55 PM PDT As the title states, I'm curious if it's possible to transfer shares or gift shares to a family member? I would like to transfer shares to my little brother that is an adult. We both reside in Canada and both use questrade as our brokerage. Thanks in advance [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| PYPL - Unusual Options Activity (Bearish Sentiment). Red flag? Posted: 01 Jul 2021 07:11 PM PDT Did anyone see all of that huge bearish PYPL options activity come through? I believe for the day it was over $3m+ of bearish sentiment. Is this a red flag for any pypl holders or a big bank just making a hedge on long shares? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Connecting the Dots: My High-Conviction Bet on Paysafe (PSFE) Posted: 01 Jul 2021 06:56 AM PDT It was evident that PSFE had finally found bottom last week. For months, we saw all the tell-tale signs of market manipulators expertly shaking out retail shareholders with order flow, short volume, massive block trades and 13F's showing institutions steadily loading up. In this context, just as PSFE was to be officially added to the Russell 1000 and 3000 indexes, it seemed a little suspicious that Paysafe was suddenly being hyped and trending on WallStreetBets. I had to wonder if this was an engineered event to generate more liquidity since market makers were clearly running out of sellers right when they had to fill a lot more institutional orders. That's all just monkey brain theory that ultimately doesn't matter because my plan is to hold PSFE long-term. There is a clear strategy with this company that will take some time to come to fruition and I want to be in on the ground floor, before all the rosy ER's come in. With a fintech that does roughly as much transactional volume as Square and, despite recent reports, has similar growth to PayPal, it's no surprise that institutions want to accumulate at levels so low that the stock is almost completely de-risked from a long-term perspective. The comprehensive DD below is for investors with a longer view who may have been caught in the recent hype. Know that you're not alone. We saw the same thing right after CNBC's Jim Cramer called Paysafe, "the ultimate stock for this moment" and market analyst Steve Grasso repeated his calls for it go to "$45/$50 and then settle in before moving higher from there." After initial spikes, deep-pocketed short-sellers methodically crushed retail holders, eventually bringing the price down to where it was last week. But informed short sellers knew they couldn't push too far because that price was really not far from the price paid by noted fund managers like Dan Loeb (Third Point 41.5 million shares), David Tepper (Appaloosa Management, 10 million shares), Aaron Cohen (Survetta Capital, 13 million shares), Dipanjan Deb (Francisco Partners, 20 million shares) and Leon Cooperman (personally owns 1.1 million shares). A price probably lower than paid by Wells Fargo's several funds (12 million shares) and even by Blackstone when they raised their initial stake of 123 million shares to a total of 160 million shares.1 Also, it's worth noting that, since they all decided to invest, Paysafe has created significant value including securing new revenue streams in the US iGaming market and expanded partnerships with Coinbase, ESL Gaming, Luckbox, and Microsoft among others. 2 With a presence in 120 countries, Paysafe is an extremely diversified global payment processor: #1 global leader in iGaming, #2 global digital wallet, #4 globally in integrated merchant processing. Ever since private equity groups Blackstone and CVC took Paysafe private, they've been going through a major restructuring to reduce risk, increase margins and profits. It's because they are still very much in the middle of that process that I like it so much as an investment opportunity. Here are a few key points:
Deleveraging, increasing margins and profit
Highly competitve
"At Paysafe, the iGaming market volume was estimated to be $3.4 billion in 2019, and is now projected to reach $47 billion in 2025." "It's our job to be there first and to make sure we dominate." - Bill Foley
MOAT: "robust risk management operation" So why does Paysafe dominate iGaming and why how is it able offer eCommerce services to the 1.7 billion globally who can't even manage to have bank accounts or credit cards? Their industry leading multi-jurisdictional regulatory expertise offers a durable advantage in spaces where competing fintechs are hesitant or unwilling to enter. CEO Philip McHugh from transcript : "When we talk about a deep and a wide MOAT, this is absolutely one of the areas that we see that benefit where it's hard to copy.…We have over 300 professionals dedicated to risk, compliance, and analytics. That is very, very rare in the payments space. It's a real strength of ours. We've been able to track some of the top people in the industry, including the former CRO from PayPal, and we've upgraded the team, we've built some real data capabilities, and we see this continuing to be an area of differentiation for Paysafe versus others." "We can de-risk some transactions where the market has abandoned many of these players…we bring millions of consumers into the ecosystem. We bring unique ways to pay and access funds that a typical card processor certainly can't do. When you have that two-sided network, you change the conversation. When we speak to some of our largest iGaming customers, we're not only talking about take rates and comps, we're talking about revenue-generation, we're talking about attracting the types of customers that they want and they need in their ecosystem. That's a really, really powerful position to have." 9 Valuation: A while back I looked at a basket of fintech peers including PayPal, Square, Nuvei, Repay, Shift4, Adyen, Affirm, BILL, GPN, and Paysign.
Given all the above factors, it seems fair to look at Paysafe's potential price based on an average of peer multiples: Paysafe's share price with average of sector peer multiples:
Average: $97.95 More realistic price after removing all outliers in each category which put PSFE share price over $100
Average : $46.52 In a nutshell, the basket of sector peers has an average growth within Paysafe's conservative projections yet they trade at 350-750% higher multiples. With Paysafe having better financials than most, it is hard to argue that this is proportionate. Either the entire field has to come down or Paysafe has to go up. While I don't necessarily agree with his time frame, market analyst Steve Grasso's call for "$45/55" may actually be quite reasonable. Sources: (1) https://fintel.io/so/us/psfe. (2) https://www.reddit.com/r/PSFE/comments/oak2jx/paysafes_value_creation_trajectory_is_very_much/ (5) https://www.reuters.com/article/us-paysafe-group-m-a-idUSKBN1AK0KN (6) https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1818355/000119312520311998/d54063d425.htm (7) https://www.paysafe.com/fileadmin/content/pdf/Analyst_Day_presentation_March_9__2021.pdf (8) https://sec.report/Document/0001104659-20-089252/ (9) https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1818355/000119312520311837/d18843d425.htm (10) Global Capital link removed due to forbidden word in the url. (11) https://www.trustpilot.com/review/www.paysafecard.com (12) https://www.trustpilot.com/review/www.paypal.com (15) https://themoneymanifesto.com/2021/06/21/paysafe-is-ready-to-ride-the-igaming-wave-analyst-says-buy/ (16) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/paysafe-poised-profit-085250018.html [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AGFY has long term potential, but looking to diversify within vertical farming Posted: 01 Jul 2021 06:00 PM PDT I have been interested in Agrify because they provide indoor growing solutions and vertical farming. This is a space I believe has a large growth potential in the future (imagine food stores that grow their own produce) But I don't know if this company in particular will be the dominant player. Their books are financially healthy but their growth has been unimpressive, but i'm curious if there are any other investment ideas - most other players in this space are dedicated to marijuana growing. I do hold nearly thousand shares in AGFY - I have extra capital to invest and as I'm already making a long-term play on their success, I am looking to diversify within the same industry. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 01 Jul 2021 01:44 PM PDT I was looking at the recent IPO of Sentinel One ($S) and wondered how such a new IPO got a single letter ticker. I started looking at every letter in the alphabet and noticed most of them have had pretty good years so far in 2021. If you've ever wondered how an equally weighted portfolio in each single letter stock ticker would perform, I did the work for you:
For comparison, SPY is up 15.70% this year. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Robinhood has 18 million accounts managing $80 billion after rapid one-year growth, IPO filing shows Posted: 01 Jul 2021 10:35 AM PDT
What are your thoughts on Robinhood IPO? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Looking to invest around 25% of my income over the next year into moderate risk stocks. Suggestions? Posted: 01 Jul 2021 01:18 PM PDT Looking to build a moderate risk portfolio for saving over the next year. Position recommendations? I'm going to be converting a van to live in next year, and I'm going to be putting a decent amount of my income until then into the market (I already have a good emergency fund) and I'd like to have moderate risk/reward potential. I'm thinking EVs and microprocessor companies may be a good way to go, but looking for some advice. [link] [comments]  |
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