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- Paul Pelosi bets up to $6M on Big Tech before powerful House committee passes sweeping antitrust measures.
- Robinhood settles lawsuit over 20-year-old trader who committed suicide thinking he owed $730,000
- Trump files suit against Facebook, Twitter and YouTube
- Goldman's Report on Enron. A Healthy Reminder the "Smart Money" is not always Smart.
- I bought the dip
- Here is a Market Recap for today Wednesday, July 7, 2021. Please enjoy!
- Arkoudaphobia!... Fear the Panda... Again!... Jim Cramer knows, from crypto to chips... Future of Chinese Crypto market
- If only the Market cared about my positions
- A $9 Trillion Binge Turns Central Banks Into the Market’s Biggest Whales Central banks’ record spending blitz and what it means [graphic]
- Tencent closes LGBT accounts
- $DIS Streaming Thesis Driven Valuation Analysis!
- Just Last Week, Jim Cramer told viewers to buy many $Didi shares as you can
- U.S. Pot Stocks Are Wealth Builders, Analyst Says. The Stocks Jumped.
- The Most Important Thing in Investing - Ray Dalio
- Super Seguros raises $7.2 million
- Relative performance of FAAMG stocks over past 5 years
- eHealth partners with Adheris Health
- One of the few trading strategies that makes sense to me and works fairly consistently
- The silver push is back... first time I have seen this promoted in a while.
- The relationship between intrinsic value factors and market price
- Pet insurer Wagmo raises funds through Series A round
- PulteGroup $PHM company analysis
- Investment Challenge Results! Charity! NOK!
- A leading US disease expert says there's 'no doubt in my mind' that vaccinated people are helping spread Delta
| Posted: 07 Jul 2021 05:31 PM PDT
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| Posted: 07 Jul 2021 07:40 AM PDT
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| Robinhood settles lawsuit over 20-year-old trader who committed suicide thinking he owed $730,000 Posted: 06 Jul 2021 09:32 PM PDT
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| Trump files suit against Facebook, Twitter and YouTube Posted: 07 Jul 2021 10:29 AM PDT Trump files suit against Facebook, Twitter and YouTube | Fresh News Now (fresh-news-now.com) JULY 7, 2021 By JILL COLVIN and MATT O'BRIEN WASHINGTON (AP) — Former President Donald Trump has filed suit against three of the country's biggest tech companies, claiming he and other conservatives have been wrongfully censored. Trump announced the action against Facebook, Twitter and Google's YouTube, along with the companies' CEOs, at a press conference in New Jersey on Wednesday. He was joined by other plaintiffs in the suits, which were filed in federal court in Miami. "We're demanding an end to the shadow-banning, a stop to the silencing and a stop to the blacklisting, banishing and canceling that you know so well," he said. Under Section 230 of the 1996 Communications Decency Act, social media platforms are allowed to moderate their services by removing posts that, for instance, are obscene or violate the services' own standards, so long as they are acting in "good faith." The law also generally exempts internet companies from liability for the material that users post. But Trump and some other politicians have long argued that Twitter, Facebook and other social media platforms have abused that protection and should lose their immunity — or at least have to earn it by satisfying requirements set by the government. Trump was suspended from Twitter, Facebook and YouTube after his followers stormed the Capitol building on Jan. 6. The companies cited concerns that he would incite further violence. Nonetheless, Trump has continued to spread lies about the 2020 election, baselessly claiming that he won, even though state and local election officials, his own attorney general and numerous judges, including some he appointed, have said there is no evidence of the mass voter fraud he alleges. Facebook, Google and Twitter all declined comment Wednesday. The suits argue that banning or suspending Trump and the other plaintiffs is a violation of the First Amendment, despite the fact that the companies are private. The suit against Facebook and CEO Mark Zuckerberg says Facebook acted unconstitutionally when it removed Trump from the platform. Suits against Twitter and YouTube make similar claims. All three ask the court to award unspecified damages, declare Section 230 unconstitutional and restore Trump's accounts, along with those of the other plaintiffs – a handful of others who have all had posts or accounts removed. But Trump's lawsuits are likely doomed to fail, said Eric Goldman, a law professor at Santa Clara University in California who has studied more than 60 similar, failed lawsuits over the past few decades that sought to take on internet companies for terminating or suspending users' accounts. "They've argued everything under the sun, including First Amendment, and they get nowhere," Goldman said. "Maybe he's got a trick up his sleeve that will give him a leg up on the dozens of lawsuits before him. I doubt it." Goldman said it's likely Trump is instead pursuing the suits to garner attention. As president, Trump last year signed an executive order challenging Section 230. "It was always about sending a message to their base that they're fighting on their behalf against the evil Silicon Valley tech giants," Goldman said. Matt Schruers, the president of the Computer & Communications Industry Association, a tech industry trade group that includes Facebook, Twitter and Google, said internet companies have a right to enforce their terms of service. "Frivolous class action litigation will not change the fact that users — even U.S. Presidents — have to abide by the rules they agreed to," he said in a statement. __ O'Brien reported from Providence, Rhode Island. Associated Press writer Mae Anderson contributed to this report from Nashville. [link] [comments]  | ||
| Goldman's Report on Enron. A Healthy Reminder the "Smart Money" is not always Smart. Posted: 06 Jul 2021 08:42 PM PDT
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| Posted: 07 Jul 2021 08:35 PM PDT
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| Here is a Market Recap for today Wednesday, July 7, 2021. Please enjoy! Posted: 07 Jul 2021 01:27 PM PDT PsychoMarket Recap - Wednesday, July 7, 2021 Stocks finished higher again, with the S&P 500 (SPY) and Nasdaq (QQQ) once again recording fresh intraday highs thanks to continued strength in mega-cap tech stocks like Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), and Amazon (AMZN). The Dow Jones (DIA), which has been lagging the other two indexes the last six or so weeks, continued to underperform comparatively. Market participants are currently digesting the Fed's June meeting minutes (basically notes of what was discussed) and are looking ahead to Q2 earnings season, which is set to kick off next week with big banks reporting. Oil prices remain under heavy pressure after recently reaching a multi-year high. In the latest meeting, the two most important members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), failed to reach a deal to increase crude oil production as energy demand rebounds. At the time of writing, Brent crude settled down $2.63 a barrel, or 3.4%, to $74.53, after hitting a session peak of $77.84, its highest since October 2018. The U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled down $1.79, or 2.4%, to $73.37 after touching $76.98, highest since November 2014. Some analysts have speculated that in light of the failure to reach a unilateral decision, individual oil producers may begin to act alone to increase production. Bob Yawger, Director of Energy Futures at Mizuho, said "The market is concerned that the UAE will step in and unilaterally add barrels and other members in OPEC will follow suit." The White House said Tuesday it was closely monitoring talks by OPEC+ and was "encouraged" after conversations with officials in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. For equity investors, the focus was squarely on the Federal Reserve's June Meeting minutes, which will help market participants decipher that path forward for monetary policy and possible timelines for any adjustments. The Fed said the economic recovery "was generally seen as not having yet been met", but said they are ready to act if inflationary pressures indeed begin to materialize. The minutes said, "Participants generally judged that, as a matter of prudent planning, it was important to be well positioned to reduce the pace of asset purchases, if appropriate, in response to unexpected economic developments, including faster-than anticipated progress toward the Committee's goals or the emergence of risks that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals". This is not surprising, as I have been saying for weeks now, as the pace of economic recovery improves, quantitative easing, or the purchase of government bonds in order to inject money into the economy, is always the first policy to be tapered. I am not worried about the tapering of quantitative easing and encourage everyone to read up about the 2013 Taper Tantrum, which happened when the Fed announced QE would be tapered since the economy had largely recovered from the 2008 crisis by then. In short, the Federal Reserve is maintaining current policies in place but noted they were prepared to act if unforeseen pressures or progress to their goals emerged.Mark Haefele, Chief Investment Officer at UBS Global Wealth Management said of the minutes, "If the US economic recovery continues to accelerate to a sufficiently robust level into the summer, the Fed is expected to signal rolling back its asset purchases later this year. But the actual tapering would only take place in 2022, and we believe markets have largely priced in this expectation." I fully agree, while I expect choppiness when the Fed makes more concrete statements about the taper timeline but do not see that derailing the current bull market. Highlights
"By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail" - Benjamin Franklin [link] [comments]  | ||
| Posted: 07 Jul 2021 07:00 AM PDT
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| If only the Market cared about my positions Posted: 07 Jul 2021 09:30 AM PDT
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| Posted: 07 Jul 2021 06:41 PM PDT
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| Posted: 07 Jul 2021 05:35 AM PDT
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| $DIS Streaming Thesis Driven Valuation Analysis! Posted: 07 Jul 2021 02:44 PM PDT
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| Just Last Week, Jim Cramer told viewers to buy many $Didi shares as you can Posted: 06 Jul 2021 04:35 AM PDT
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| U.S. Pot Stocks Are Wealth Builders, Analyst Says. The Stocks Jumped. Posted: 07 Jul 2021 09:23 PM PDT
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| The Most Important Thing in Investing - Ray Dalio Posted: 07 Jul 2021 09:14 PM PDT
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| Super Seguros raises $7.2 million Posted: 07 Jul 2021 09:06 PM PDT
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| Relative performance of FAAMG stocks over past 5 years Posted: 07 Jul 2021 01:20 PM PDT
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| eHealth partners with Adheris Health Posted: 07 Jul 2021 08:48 PM PDT | ||
| One of the few trading strategies that makes sense to me and works fairly consistently Posted: 07 Jul 2021 08:42 PM PDT
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| The silver push is back... first time I have seen this promoted in a while. Posted: 07 Jul 2021 04:55 PM PDT
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| The relationship between intrinsic value factors and market price Posted: 07 Jul 2021 01:06 PM PDT The following is a slightly edited excerpt from the book Security Analysis. The passage was written in 1934 and it is amazing how valid it is today. In security analysis, there are two general attitudes that go into determining the market price of securities. They are investment attitudes and speculative attitudes. Speculative attitudes include the following: Market factors:
Speculative and investment attitudes may share the following attitudes: Future value factors:
Investment attitudes are distinct from speculative attitudes in that they asses objective intrinsic value factors: Intrinsic value factors:
All of these factors together form the attitude of the public towards the issue - causing them to present bids and asks at the price they deem appropriate to exchanges that in turn forms the current market price. Of course there have been many new developments since this was written, but big banks scalping for a few cents per share on each trade doesn't change the facts above. It seems like good practice to think about all of these before making a purchase or sale to form a final opinion on if the transaction is an investment or a speculation, and even to think about what the person on the opposite side of the transaction is thinking. Also goes to show that if efficient market theory really does exist, then the value of equities may be extremely disjoint with what its financial intrinsic value is. The purpose of this post is not to enrage or start an argument like how some people tend to interpret posts, but rather to create some discussion points and hopefully add to all of our knowledge base or at least make you take a second and think about it. [link] [comments]  | ||
| Pet insurer Wagmo raises funds through Series A round Posted: 07 Jul 2021 08:32 PM PDT
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| PulteGroup $PHM company analysis Posted: 07 Jul 2021 07:22 PM PDT Company SummaryPulteGroup is a residential home builder based in Atlanta and formed in 1956. They are the fourth largest homebuilder in the US after $DHI, $LEN, and $NVR. They have a number of different brands and are vertically integrated in the homebuilding process from purchasing undeveloped land to selling completed homes. They develop communities with single family detached homes, townhouses, duplexes and condos. Their target market is middle class Americans and they also develop residential communities focused on senior living in 23 different states. 45% of their customers are 'moving up', 31% are first time home buyers and 24% are purchasing senior living options. When purchasing land, they claim they use well developed data models to predict socioeconomic trends for housing markets in cities and isolated communities. The auditor seemed very optimistic about their computer models as compared to $MDC, a similar homebuilder. They sell homes in two ways:
They run a mortgage issuance segment that mostly issues mortgages to their homebuyers and then sells the mortgage to some other institution in order to reduce the risk on their own balance sheet. They control 180,352 lots in total. 5000 in the NW, 15000 in the SE, 21000 in Florida, 9700 in the midwest, 16000 in texas, and 25000 in the west. 30% of lots are developed. 91, 363 of these lots are owned, and 88,989 are optioned. 43% of owned lots are developed and 16% of optioned lots are developed. See Note 2. At the bottom of the report for more info on the regions. Management overview: I've heard the grandson of the founder speak, and all I can say is it was a good decision keeping him out of the CEO position. People have a good opinion of the company from what is on glassdoor. There are a few comments about management being bureaucratic and putting unnecessary pressure on employees, but these only account for a small percentage of comments. CEO: Ryan Marshall. He has an accounting and business degree, but it looks like he has only ever worked for PHM. He has over 20 years at PHM and his compensation was over 13 million dollars. This seems way too high for a CEO of a company this size. He has very good reviews on glassdoor (94% approval). CFO: Bob O'Shaughnessy. Has an accounting degree. He has a much more diverse work experience than the CEO, but it isn't in housing. He spent 10 years at Ernst and Young, 14 years at Penske as the CFO, and then 10 years at PGH as CFO. He has past CFO experience so I wouldn't be worried about him making irrational decisions. Addressable MarketThis section is speculative, they do not provide a breakdown of their target markets so I had to do some reverse engineering to get to this conclusion. Their main business is single family homes, which account for 85% of their revenue. They talk vaguely about who they target, but it is quite clear to me after looking at the homes they sell that their target market is the middle class with a bit more in savings than most. Their homes are good quality, and their senior living arrangements are standalone homes with a lot of customization and community amenities available. From my analysis I think it is fair to state that their average buyer is in the upper middle class, and the retirees who buy homes have an average amount of savings, although there is serious interest from wealthier seniors. RiskPHM is directly exposed to the volatility of the housing industry. They are a middleman in real estate ownership and try to keep their inventory turnover below 36 months. The way they purchase land is akin to dollar cost averaging. They purchase land more frequently than 36 months, and their long term assets are constantly changing. This brings us to the possibility of significant reduction in real estate value. Sure they might lose paper value on their balance sheet but there is still a fixed selling price that they will generate significant operating cash flows from. Thankfully, there is a very prominent event that is an example of the worst case scenario for homebuilders - check this out if you don't know what I am talking about. They took a big hit because of the dropoff of demand. It took 6 years, or four housing cycles to build back to pre 2008 levels, and they had three years of negative earnings. They managed to decrease debt and took the unfavorable but appropriate approach of selling 150 million shares, an increase of 60 percent. Since then they have bought back those 150 million shares but who's to say there isn't another housing crisis on the horizon? I have looked closely at common and uncommon indicators and all I see is a lack of supply but there is obviously much more that I am completely blind to. The mortgages they keep on their balance sheet are slightly worrisome, but when I think about it, if the homeowner defaults, the home will just be repossessed by PHM. So not much of a concern. They are vulnerable to commodity price inflation, but the distribution and acquisition of these works the same way as their land purchases do. Non land inventory is purchased regardless of the price, and home prices tend to slightly outperform the general CPI so this doesn't really concern me as it balances out the same way as land purchases. One unconventional risk they face is the lack of skilled laborers. The average age of construction workers has increased by two years in the past seven years. There are more and more people going to post secondary school trying to make more money and do less work each year. This really does pose a significant risk to PHM in the long run. Less human capital supply means higher wages means lower margins means less operational cash generation means more debts and less cash means ultimately a more unstable and unhealthy business. No matter what happens otherwise in the economy, I think this could be their biggest long term risk. Their 'in your face' optimism in their annual report isn't captivating me. They also say that they think past stock price performance compared to the DOW home constructors index "represents a meaningful analysis for investors" (Page 19 above the stock performance chart). Again, this is really immature for the auditor to say this. They have competitive financials and a good company, so there is no reason for the auditor to go so overboard when they prepare reports. This stuff always makes me suspicious. Revenue Breakdown / Company segments96% or revenue is from all homebuilding operations. This figure is 10.7 Billion:
The remainder is from their financial services. This figure is 0.362 Billion. Their average annual output of homes was 24600 last year. It has been growing slowly in the past three years at about 2% YoY. Industry positionSome of their competitors are $DHI, $LEN, $NVR, $TOL, $LGIH, and $KBH to list a few. PHM has the lowest P/E and PEG, and their P/S AND P/B are average out of their competitors. Their D/E and margins are competitive, but they are lagging with their ROE/ROA/ROI. Free cash flow is currently at about 30% of the market cap but this is not usually the case. They have an estimated 6.1% market share in American residential construction. Base statsMarket Cap: 14.33 B Total Debt: 3.2 B Cash & Liquid assets: 1.6 B Goodwill: 163 M Total Assets: 12.2 B Equity: 6.6 B Revenue: 11.5 B Earnings: 1.5 B Operating Cash Flow: 1.7 B Financing cash flow: -1.9B Enterprise Value: 15 B Shares Outstanding: 263 M EV/Sales: 1.05x ROE: 24.7% Overview/Growth and DevelopmentsGrowth: Revenue took a turn for the worse in the late 2000s, but since then it has almost returned to pre 2008 levels. The growth has been very steady Margins:
Net reinvestment:
Share buybacks:
Costs:
Debts:
Assets:
WACC: 8.5% Long term growth rate: They will grow with the housing market, but also shrink with it. 3.5-3.8% organic growth per year is reasonable. Legal: Nothing Recent/expected developments:
Industry advantagesSuppose this data driven model they talk about really can predict socioeconomic trends in neighborhoods or to-be neighborhoods. This would offer huge profitability advantages for them, but unfortunately so far their margins and growth are pretty in par with the industry. They do have an advantage as a publicly traded company of their size. Lots of access to capital and large capital reserves make it easy for them to have many operations simultaneously in different parts of the country. They have a healthier history internally compared to competitors. Their finances have stayed intact even in the worst case scenario and they have shown a better than average ability to rebound after hardship. This is because of the financial maturity and responsibility management has taken over the years and hopefully this is a culture that continues in the business. Sell side VS Buy sideI am more bullish on this one, but here are two arguments for two different opinions. I will limit them to five points each: Sell:
Buy:
ValuationAssuming a dividend growth of 1 %, a 3.8% expected growth from the company and an 8% rate of return, the Gordon model gives them a $10.7 valuation per share. Their intrinsic value calculated from the DCF model is between $70-100, giving an average margin of 35%. Of course the DCF model makes the assumption that OCF and investments will be stable and follow my predicted growth rates, so this is a subjective valuation no matter how accurate I think it may be. Valuation Market ComparisonThe average intrinsic values I have found for the industry show that the industry is overvalued by about 15%, giving PHM a potential relative valuation of 50% undervalued. OpinionI would give $PHM a buy rating. They have a strong, cash generating business model. There is more risk associated with owning them than a comparable consumer staples business, but there is also much more potential reward and in my opinion the reward is more likely to be realized than the risk. This is something I would be comfortable holding in my portfolio. Notes and sourcesNotes: Note 1. I am not a financial advisor nor am I a current shareholder of $PHM as of the time this was posted. This is my opinion and not a recommendation for you to purchase any securities without doing your own research Note 2: Regions: Northeast: Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia Southeast: Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee Florida: Florida Midwest: Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio Texas: Texas West: Arizona, California, Nevada, New Mexico, Washington Sources: Their 10-K on the SEC website, Macrotrends, Glassdoor, Yahoo finance, Finviz, Wikipedia, $PHMs website and their subsidy websites. [link] [comments]  | ||
| Investment Challenge Results! Charity! NOK! Posted: 07 Jul 2021 09:36 AM PDT Investment Challenge Wrap UpI usually generate a profit off the stocks and options I trade. So why not put that talent to good use? So ... Back in February I announced an investment challenge. You, the community would pick a stock and I would work that stock to generate a profit.Then I would donate that profit to charity. Here's the announcement: https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/lc00xp/investment_challenge/ I did this to show people how important it is for diamond handed apes to actively manage their position. And also to generate some nice cash for charity. Win Win! u/DLane69's choice of stock was chosen. That user chose NOK. I tried to post updates on the Nokia stock trades I made, but the information is hard to read, so for that I apologize. This posting will clear things up. ResultsWithout further adieu, here are the results of the investment challenge:
As you can see, the income from this particular series of trades came entirely from options income. This ended up being a pure options play. And there's no shame in that game. CharityUser u/DLane69 picked Operation Hope (https://operationhope.org). And after some serious due-diligence I am happy to announce that they will receive the profits from these trades! I even bought the book written by the founder and it looks like Operation Hope is doing some great things in the world. Financial management is a skill and Operation Hope's mission is to help people build that skill. Here is a quote from their mission statement:
I will be making an anonymous donation of $979.68. Congratulations u/DLane69! Congratulations Operation Hope! EDIT #1: Clarity & typos. [link] [comments]  | ||
| Posted: 07 Jul 2021 07:10 PM PDT
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![A $9 Trillion Binge Turns Central Banks Into the Market's Biggest Whales Central banks' record spending blitz and what it means [graphic]](https://external-preview.redd.it/GQhb_SsukZ-762I8My6pZVvAO45v6-xMqIzv-kebrAk.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=75d8478891ae2fc05474a197a7d84ff30acf35ef "A $9 Trillion Binge Turns Central Banks Into the Market's Biggest Whales Central banks' record spending blitz and what it means [graphic]")
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