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    Thursday, July 8, 2021

    Stock Market - Anyone caught that Macro-econ bonus yet?

    Stock Market - Anyone caught that Macro-econ bonus yet?


    Anyone caught that Macro-econ bonus yet?

    Posted: 08 Jul 2021 04:11 PM PDT

    How do I hit undo

    Posted: 08 Jul 2021 09:47 AM PDT

    Market crash inbound

    Posted: 08 Jul 2021 11:22 AM PDT

    Investing in HEMP inc be like

    Posted: 08 Jul 2021 11:59 AM PDT

    Hedge funds have lost more than $5 billion. Red line depicts an index of meme stocks and the blue line is an index of stocks shorted by hedge funds.

    Posted: 08 Jul 2021 10:45 AM PDT

    I'm gonna do whats known as a pro gamer move

    Posted: 08 Jul 2021 03:04 PM PDT

    why is everything in sight in the deep red today?

    Posted: 08 Jul 2021 07:07 AM PDT

    Hey, I'm literally not changing my portfolio at all so it's mostly just me wanting to know what caused such a straight line down in basically every stock I see. is there some form of pusbback or something? I heard it was because of fears of some economic thing? thanks for the answers if anything

    I expect this to be something to be ignored long term as the vast majority of my holding is in voo anyway, so even if it's down a lot, I still will hold onto voo and continue to dca into voo and whatnot. just am wondering what's up. I saw it spiked down pre market and then it just continued after market opened.

    submitted by /u/FlamingOrange
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    Melvin Can’t Shake Reddit Attack With 46% Loss in First Half

    Posted: 08 Jul 2021 05:52 PM PDT

    Melvin Can't Shake Reddit Attack With 46% Loss in First Half - Bloomberg

    By Katia Porzecanski and Hema Parmar

    July 8, 2021, 3:51 PM CDT

    • Hedge fund is said to have gained about 1% last month
    • Founder Plotkin has said he would adjust his shorting strategy

    Gabe Plotkin's Melvin Capital Management ended the first half of 2021 down 46% as the hedge fund struggled to bounce back from a vicious attack by Reddit traders on its short positions.

    The firm, which plunged 53% in January as its bearish bets on companies including GameStop Corp. and AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. were besieged by a retail-driven buying spree, was up about 1% in June, according to people familiar with the matter. After initially posting a strong rebound of 22% in February, Plotkin has lost momentum in recent months.

    Some hedge fund observers question whether Plotkin -- who has changed the way he makes short bets in the wake of the fiasco -- can still produce blockbuster returns without taking aggressive positions against companies. In Melvin's first year of trading, 70% of the fund's profits came from his bearish wagers.

    "I don't think investors like myself want to be susceptible to these type of dynamics," Plotkin testified during a House Financial Services Committee hearing, referring to the astronomical level of short interest in GameStop stock that preceded the volatility.

    Bloomberg has reported that his firm, which managed $11 billion as of June 1, is also taking smaller-sized positions to limit exposure to single companies. Plotkin also told his team of data scientists to scour social media and message boards to look for shares that retail investors are rallying around.

    A spokesman for the firm declined to comment.

    submitted by /u/SavannahSmiles_
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    Everybody listen up...

    Posted: 08 Jul 2021 10:02 AM PDT

    Virgin Galactic Stock Is Soaring Because Investors Are Buying the Rumor

    Posted: 08 Jul 2021 06:12 PM PDT

    Virgin Galactic Stock Is Soaring Because Investors Are Buying the Rumor – Market Trading Essentials

    Market Trading Essentials 4 hours ago

    Virgin Galactic stock continued its wild ride Thursday. Shares are soaring as the company prepares to launch co-founder Sir Richard Branson into space this weekend. The move appears to be another case of the investment adage 'buy the rumor sell the news.' If that is what's going on, investors might want to consider trimming positions ahead of the weekend.

    Virgin Galactic (ticker: SPCE) stock rose 17.3% Thursday. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average, for comparison, are both down about 1%. Stocks are down after Japan declared a new Covid emergency related to Delta variant infections.

    For Virgin Galactic, there isn't much news to pin Thursday's gains on. The stock has jumped from about $15 to more than $50 since early May, after the company got its test flight program back on schedule. Finishing up test flights will eventually lead to the start of commercial operations.

    Recently, test flights have been enough to get the stock moving. Shares jumped 28% the first trading day after the company completed a manned test flight on May 22.

    Virgin Galactic stock jumped another 39% on June 25 after the company received its license from the Federal Aviation Administration to carry paying customers. That was a bigger reaction to a bigger catalyst.

    Virgin Galactic investors, it appears, are getting addicted to stock catalysts. And Thursday it seems they are bidding up shares, hoping for a repeat of those two rapid gains. The next catalyst for the stock is a test flight slated for July 11 that will include Virgin Galactic co-founder Sir Richard Branson.

    The flight was scheduled on July 1. "I truly believe that space belongs to all of us," said Branson in a July 1 news release. "As part of a remarkable crew of mission specialists, I'm honored to help validate the journey our future astronauts will undertake and ensure we deliver the unique customer experience people expect from Virgin."

    The problem for investors is, when catalysts are known in advance, stocks sell off after the event passes. Virgin Galactic stock did fall about 5% the day after the 28% jump. Still, shares march upward to about $40 before the FAA license was awarded. But after the test flight jump, shares were still below where Wall Street believed they were worth.

    On May 24, the first trading day after the May 22 test flight, the average analyst price target was about $30. Shares closed that day at about $27. The average analyst price target is $35, and the stock closed at $52.69 Thursday.

    The divergence raises the risk of a post-Branson flight sell-off. The market is always forward looking, meaning the value of a Branson flight will be in shares before the flight actually takes place. Investors might want to think about that as they consider holding all of their shares going into next week.

    Year to date, investors are certainly happy with their Galactic investment. Shares are up about 122%.

    Write to Al Root at [allen.root@dowjones.com](mailto:allen.root@dowjones.com)

    submitted by /u/SavannahSmiles_
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    Here is a Market Recap for today Thursday, July 8, 2021

    Posted: 08 Jul 2021 01:36 PM PDT

    PsychoMarket Recap - Thursday, July 8, 2021

    Stocks dipped across the board today, putting a stop to the recent record-setting rally that has seen both the Nasdaq (QQQ) and S&P 500 (SPY) reach countless fresh intraday highs in the last six weeks or so. The SPY and Dow Jones (DIA) both fell roughly 0.9% while the tech-heavy QQQ fared slightly better, closing 0.65% down. It seems there a few differing factors that contributed to the drop today, including but not limited to, (1) rising coronavirus fears outside of the US due to the highly contagious Delta variant, (2) the Fed's June Meeting Minutes, which showed members are increasingly talking about accelerating the timeline to taper quantitative easing, (3) a disappointing weekly unemployment report, and (4) general profit-taking after such a monster rally in the market. In positive news, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield sank for the fourth straight day, hovering around a multi-month low at 1.29%, a sign that inflation fears are further tapering.

    In a sign of rising concerns over the highly contagious coronavirus delta variant, the Japanese made a last minute announcement that a state of emergency would be re-instituted across Tokyo and that all events would take place behind closed doors, with no spectators, walking back an earlier decision to allow locals to attend the games. On Wednesday, 16 days before the Opening Ceremony, the Tokyo Metropolitan Government reported 920 COVID cases, over 200 more than any other single-day total since May. On Thursday, it reported 896, the second-highest count since May. Other countries, like India and Brazil, are also dealing with an extremely worrying surge of cases. Even in the US, where roughly 50% of those eligible are fully vaccinated, the country is seeing a small surge in cases recently, with the delta variant accounting for 51.7% of all new infections.

    Yesterday, the Federal Reserve released the June Meeting minutes, which are notes about what was discussed in the latest meeting, which helps market participants decipher that path forward for monetary policy and possible timelines for any adjustments. The Fed said the economic recovery "was generally seen as not having yet been met", but said they are ready to act if inflationary pressures indeed begin to materialize. The minutes said, "Participants generally judged that, as a matter of prudent planning, it was important to be well positioned to reduce the pace of asset purchases, if appropriate, in response to unexpected economic developments, including faster-than anticipated progress toward the Committee's goals or the emergence of risks that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals". This is not surprising, as I have been saying for weeks now, as the pace of economic recovery improves, quantitative easing, or the purchase of government bonds in order to inject money into the economy, is always the first policy to be tapered. I am not worried about the tapering of quantitative easing and encourage everyone to read up about the 2013 Taper Tantrum, which happened when the Fed announced QE would be tapered since the economy had largely recovered from the 2008 crisis by then.

    In other news, after a strong run of outperformance in reports about the labor market, the most recent weekly unemployment report showed new jobless claims unexpectedly tick higher. According to the Department of Labor, there were 373,000 new jobless claims filed last week, higher than the 350,000 expected. While it is slightly disappointing, jobless claims in the US have been continuously declining for months, a sign that the labor market continues to improve as the US continues to reopen.

    Ian Shepherdson, Chief Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics said, "The consensus ignored the tendency for unadjusted claims to rise in weeks when July 4 falls on a Sunday, so the risk was always to the upside. But this is noise, not signal. The seasonal adjustments are struggling simultaneously with the July 4 holiday period and the annual automakers' retooling shutdowns, which can make the headline numbers even more volatile than usual. The noise will persist through late July, but we have no doubt that the underlying trend will remain downwards." I agree and remain encouraged by the pace of recovery in the labor market.

    Another potential explanation for today's pullback, coupled with the other reasons listed, may be general profit taking after such a monster run by the broader market. Since mid-May, the Nasdaq and SPY are up 12.3% and 6% respectively, a great run by any judgement. Nothing ever goes straight up, sometimes dips are needed for the market to recharge for another move higher.

    Looking ahead, market participants are waiting for Q2 earnings season, which is set to kick off next week with big banks reporting.

    Highlights

    • The Labor Department's monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary showed U.S. job openings increased to 9.209 million in May. This followed a downwardly revised 9.193 million in April, which was brought down from the 9.286 million previously reported
    • U.S. mortgage applications declined for a second straight week last week, declining to the lowest level in a year-and-a-half as home price growth and low housing inventories weighed further on purchasing activity.
    • The NFL and Twitter (TWTR) are extending a media partnership that will leverage Twitter Spaces, the social-media network's live-audio feature. The NFL says it has more than 20 Spaces sessions planned for the upcoming season; they will include participation from players and other NFL personalities. Other aspects of the partnership will include postings of curated videos, Twitter polls and other content.
    • Airbus delivered 297 airplanes in the first half of the year after a surge of handover activity in June, the European planemaker said on Thursday. US-rival Boeing (BA), on the other hand, has more orders in the books for planes but only managed to deliver 111 planes so far this year.
    • Tesla (TSLA) introduced a cheaper version of the Model Y in China, as the company is facing increased pressure from Chinese regulators and local competitors.
    • Beyond Meat (BYND) is expanding its product portfolio by launching plant-based chicken-tenders.
    • **Please note current stock price was written during the session and may not reflect closing prices*\*
    • Ameriprise Financial (AMP) target raised by UBS Group from $285 to $300 at Buy. Stock currently around $241
    • BlackRock (BLK) target raised by UBS Group from $890 to $984 at Buy. Stock currently around $877
    • Citizens Financial Group (CFG) target raised by Barclays from $54 to $55 at Overweight. Stock currently around $43.5
    • Mosaic (MOS) target raised by Royal Bank of Canada from $43 to $45 at Outperform. Stock currently around $30.75
    • Nvidia (NVDA) with two target raises. Stock currently around $796 at Buy.
      • Oppenheimer from $700 to $925 at Outperform
      • Truist Securities from $768 to $910 at Buy
    • Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) target raised by Benchmark from $590 to $636 at Buy. Stock currently around $574
    • TuSimple (TSP) target raised by Morgan Stanley from $48 to $75 at Overweight. Stock currently around $54

    "It is only in our darkest hours that we may discover the true strength of the brilliant light within ourselves that can never, ever, be dimmed." - Doe Zantamata

    submitted by /u/psychotrader00
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    #afterhours

    Posted: 08 Jul 2021 04:29 PM PDT

    Because 60% of the time, it works every time!

    Posted: 08 Jul 2021 12:19 PM PDT

    SPY put gain porn

    Posted: 08 Jul 2021 06:42 PM PDT

    Yesterday's unusual option value

    Posted: 08 Jul 2021 06:13 PM PDT

    RMED squeeze plus DD

    Posted: 08 Jul 2021 08:04 PM PDT

    Low float of only 5.56 million outstanding shares with a high short volume ratio (33.11% on July 8th). RMED has a price target of $25 on Webull. FDA approval for later this year per CEO, 115% estimated revenue for 2022, possible acquisition, and lots of insiders holding! Great results on their vascular studies with preliminary 94% effectiveness!

    The company also announces that enrollment in its pivotal atherectomy clinical trial with the DABRA excimer laser system is now at 62 subjects, including 42 subjects enrolled since the beginning of 2021. This trial is expected to enroll up to 100 subjects.

    "I'm delighted Ra Medical Systems has made such significant forward progress in bringing a guidewire-compatible platform of their next-generation catheter to the market, while also advancing towards regulatory clearance for the atherectomy indication," said Tom Davis, MD, an interventional cardiologist practicing at Eastlake Cardiovascular, P.C. "Achievement on both these milestones are critical and positive steps toward their commercialization success and represents a promising technology for expanded patient care options in my practice."

    "We are grateful for the valuable feedback we have received from our physician advisors as they are leaders in their field and represent the customer base for our excimer laser system," said Will McGuire, Ra Medical Systems CEO. "Also, the current pace of enrollment in our atherectomy trial is encouraging, as we believe regulatory clearance for this indication will better position Ra Medical to address the large and growing market for treating vascular disease."

    Growing dermatology laser market as well:

    https://manometcurrent.com/dermatology-excimer-laser-market-size-and-growth-to-2028-key-players-lumenis-ra-medical-systems-hologic-sincoheren-fotona-shenzhen-gsd-tech/

    submitted by /u/madryno6
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    Will Oil sector boom could MRO be the winner

    Posted: 08 Jul 2021 07:24 PM PDT

    Lets have a discussion please:

    Yes I'm new to Reddit.

    Seeing how the Biden Administration has been trying to kill the oil market, which in reality they are boosting the price, green EV is happening but has longgg ways to go, everything in our daily lives relies on Oil, when push comes to shove once the oil price rises up people will look for an alternative aka green renewable energy which we are far away from.

    I'm not a newbie & have done a modest amount of DD, but the market conditions make me think again specially it being bear and the new corona delta variant situation.

    I have a decent position on Marathon Oil Corp $MRO:

    Their major competitors are China, which China soon to have their hand full of trouble.

    Has anyone ever investigated this, what do you guys think of MRO?

    Below is some of my research behind this company: I cant seem to post charts on this post.

    The 26 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Marathon Oil Corp have a median target of 16.00, with a high estimate of 20.00 and a low estimate of 10.00. The median estimate represents a +23.55% increase from the last price of 12.95.

    (NYSE: MRO) Marathon Oil Corp's forecast annual earnings growth rate of N/A is not forecast to beat the US Oil & Gas E&P industry's average forecast earnings growth rate of 101.28%, and while it is not forecast to beat the US market's average forecast earnings growth rate of 20.37%.

    Marathon Oil Corp's earnings in 2021 is -$1,308,000,000.On average, 10 Wall Street analysts forecast MRO's earnings for 2021 to be $591,902,927, with the lowest MRO earnings forecast at $291,616,622, and the highest MRO earnings forecast at $851,205,275. On average, 10 Wall Street analysts forecast MRO's earnings for 2022 to be $477,620,737, with the lowest MRO earnings forecast at $-149,749,076, and the highest MRO earnings forecast at $1,032,480,472.

    Revenue: NYSE: MRO) Marathon Oil Corp's forecast annual revenue growth rate of 13.86% is not forecast to beat the US Oil & Gas E&P industry's average forecast revenue growth rate of 19.34%, and while it is not forecast to beat the US market's average forecast revenue growth rate of 14.84%.

    Marathon Oil Corp's revenue in 2021 is $2,927,000,000.On average, 7 Wall Street analysts forecast MRO's revenue for 2021 to be $3,579,125,082,032, with the lowest MRO revenue forecast at $3,310,707,744,689, and the highest MRO revenue forecast at $3,848,551,255,256. On average, 7 Wall Street analysts forecast MRO's revenue for 2022 to be $3,486,855,218,423, with the lowest MRO revenue forecast at $3,163,819,664,115, and the highest MRO revenue forecast at $3,712,200,780,720.

    In 2023, MRO is forecast to generate $3,410,114,334,003 in revenue, with the lowest revenue forecast at $3,319,030,640,707 and the highest revenue forecast at $3,464,720,728,672.

    In 2023, MRO is forecast to generate $427,178,943 in earnings, with the lowest earnings forecast at $102,459,894 and the highest earnings forecast at $669,930,077.

    Thons of Analysts have been upgrading this as well, their chairman keeps buying low and selling high of their shares as a typical chairman would do now a days.

    Thank You.

    submitted by /u/ptsdonsteroids
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    Woke up to...

    Posted: 08 Jul 2021 10:24 AM PDT

    can’t wait to be back here next week with a post saying “so i lost $8k at 19, am i doing this right?”

    Posted: 07 Jul 2021 11:10 PM PDT

    Does index inclusion positively affect stock price? : I analyzed 300+ stocks that were added to S&P500 over the past 3 decades. Here are the results!

    Posted: 08 Jul 2021 06:32 AM PDT

    Does index inclusion positively affect stock price? : I analyzed 300+ stocks that were added to S&P500 over the past 3 decades. Here are the results!

    Preamble: There is a lot of publicity generated when a company is added to the S&P 500 or Russell Indices. The company usually gets a bump in stock price following the announcement and there is a significant increase in retail interest for the stock.

    The underlying principle for this is that institutional investors which track these indices would have to buy into the stock and that this would cause a considerable bump in the stock price.

    At the same time, there are some contradictory opinions regarding this expected jump in price. Some people believe that there would be profit booking following the index inclusion which would actually tank the stock price.

    What I wanted to analyze was

    Whether the stock price rise following index inclusion or would the profit booking cause to stock price to fall?

    This in turn would allow us to create the best strategy for trading using index inclusion news.

    Data: The data for index inclusion time was surprisingly difficult to obtain. This list from Wikipedia was the only source where I could find when each stock was added to S&P 500. Data from official sources are split by years and only the latest years' data is provided on the website.

    All the data and my analysis are shared as a Google sheet at the end.

    Analysis:

    One of the major limitations of S&P500 index inclusions is that there is no set time delay between the date of announcement of inclusion and the actual inclusion [1]. As detailed in this post, it can vary from 1 day to 10 days with the average being 6 days.

    To incorporate this complexity also into the analysis, we will calculate the returns of the stock (keeping the date of inclusion as the benchmark)

    a. 1-week leading up to the index inclusion

    b. 1-week following the index inclusion

    c. 1-month following the index inclusion

    Results:

    As expected, on average the stocks made positive returns only during the week leading up to the index inclusion. Out of the 313 stocks analyzed, more than 60% had positive returns with an average return of 1.7%.

    After the stock had been added to the index, the returns on average were negative. There is a consistent drop in the stock price in the following weeks after the index addition. On average, the stocks lost 0.7% in the week after the index inclusion. One probable reason for this would be profit booking where investors pull out after the run-up leading to the index addition.

    We can further deep dive into the mechanics of index addition to understand the best possible plays. For this, we will take case studies of some popular stocks that were added to the index.

    Domino's Pizza ($DPZ)

    The inclusion of Dominos into S&P500 was announced on 6th May 2020 and the date of inclusion was on 12th May 2020. As we can observe from the graph, all the indices which track S&P 500 had to buy Domino's stock before the market open on 12th May due to which there is almost an 11x jump in traded volume and a 2% gain in stock price. In this case, the stock continued its upward trend for one more day before dipping.

    Tesla Inc ($TSLA)

    Tesla was the largest company to be added to S&P 500 at more than $500 Billion valuation. The inclusion of Tesla into S&P500 was announced on 16th Nov 2020 and the date of inclusion was on 21st Dec 2020. As we can see from the graph, there was a nice bump in traded volume as well as stock price following the announcement.

    Since the company was added into the index in one step before the 21st Dec open, all the funds had to buy the stock on 18th Dec (19 & 20 were weekends). There was a 6% jump in stock price and almost 4x normal traded volume on that day. We can also see the profit booking following the index addition where the stock briefly dipped before continuing on its rally.

    Conclusion:

    The analysis does prove that stock prices positively react to index inclusion. But this is only applicable till the stock is added to the index. As we saw earlier, stocks rise 1 week leading to the inclusion and then fall due to profit booking.

    So, the best strategy to trade based on index addition is to buy the stock as soon as the news breaks and hold it till the day of inclusion.

    Google Sheet containing the data and my analysis: here

    Footnotes

    [1] If you are a diligent investor, you can analyze the quarterly earnings report and understand whether the company is now in a position to be added to the index. But then again, the final decision of whether a stock will be added to the index will be based on the index committee

    As always, please note that I am not a financial advisor. Hope you enjoyed this week's analysis. If you found this insightful, please share it with your friends :)

    WhatsApp | Facebook | Twitter | Reddit

    submitted by /u/nobjos
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    IS THE STOCK MARKET GOING TO SELL OFF NOW?

    Posted: 08 Jul 2021 07:49 PM PDT

    Consumer prices jump 5% in May, fastest pace since the summer of 2008

    Posted: 08 Jul 2021 01:50 PM PDT

    Could this stock recover itself . Since China last crack down on Bitcoin mining ⛏. ?or it will stay a flop for now ? I’m interested in hearing opinions about bitcoin and crypto’s

    Posted: 08 Jul 2021 12:32 PM PDT

    Multiple bids and asks

    Posted: 08 Jul 2021 01:35 PM PDT

    After a lot of head-scratching and reading, I figured how the [1] bid and ask prices are something that is quoted by the MM, pro-rata to the supply, demand, and hence the liquidity of the security (shoot me in the face and relieve me of this misery if I am still wrong about this).

    But I'm still confused about why we see [2] multiple bids and asks (the maker limit orders that are yet to be filled -- for buying or selling). From what I understood the makers put a bid/ask on the security according to what they feel about its value and the takers accept the current market price.

    So does that mean if I put, say, a buy order at a price exactly equal to one of the [refer 2] ask prices the order will get filled following an exchange bw me (buyer) and the maker (seller in this case). However, does this not deviate from the [refer 1] fact that the MM is the one who is quoting the bid and ask prices?

    tl;dr is the MM quoting the bid and ask price? if so why do I see multiple bids and asks prices (which are put by the makers i suppose)? does this not flip the entire frame of reference for who is bidding who is asking for a specific price?

    submitted by /u/ntr0pie
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