Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - July 08, 2021 Investing |
- Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - July 08, 2021
- Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.
- What companies did you invest in because you believe they will radically change our future?
- Both the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg have picked up on Zoltan Pozsar's most recent article, which warns of coming chaos from an accumulation of cash in the Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase facility (RRP)
- Are Permabears Delusional?
- Live on dividends? Have you noticed that the dividend yield of core bond funds is dropping every month?
- When do you decide to cut your losses?
- How can US citizen to invest in US ETFs, Roth, IRA or 401k while living in Switzerland
- Discussion on the best education to be a better investor
- Vanguard’s customer service is letting down. What should I do?
- Historical inflation levels - 1914-2021
- any opinions on this offer to buy shares from Wise?
- Does this bond allocation “substitution” make any sense?
- Having a hard time trying to be greedy while others are fearful.
- Walgreens vs CVS - Which is a better buy?
- Trading ETFs with low liquidity. Help me understand if this makes sense?
- Investments going south..
- How should I be thinking about foreign currency loans?
- Stockpile drops commissions
- The utility (or otherwise) of CAPE
- The relationship between intrinsic value factors and market price
- Understanding InteractiveBrokers commissions on EUR stock
- Any good podcast recommendations?
| Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - July 08, 2021 Posted: 08 Jul 2021 02:01 AM PDT Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here! This thread is for:
Keep in mind that this subreddit, and this thread, is not an appropriate venue for questions that should be directed towards your broker's customer support or google. If you would like to ask a question about your personal situation or if you are asking for advice please keep these posts in the daily advice thread as that thread is more well suited for those questions. Any posts that should be comments in this thread will likely be removed. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Posted: 08 Jul 2021 02:00 AM PDT If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our side bar also has useful resources. Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! {{date %B %d, %Y}} [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||
| What companies did you invest in because you believe they will radically change our future? Posted: 07 Jul 2021 01:53 PM PDT Most of the posts I have been seeing lately generally discuss the valuation of a certain companies or how much dividends they pay with no much discussion about the impact they have on our society. So here's a different question to the community, what companies did you invest in not only to grow your wealth but also because you absolutely believe these companies will shape the future of everyone (not just those using the product). And what do you think their impact will be? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 08 Jul 2021 12:24 AM PDT https://www.efinancialcareers.com/news/2021/07/zoltan-pozsar-credit-suisse
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| Posted: 07 Jul 2021 01:23 PM PDT Especially the ones on Seeking Alpha - I've seen guys bearish on AMZN for over a decade (look up Edward J. Roche) and they still won't admit they're wrong LOL. Here's one from Aug. 22, 2017: "The FANG stocks and others like TSLA have been over-hyped and overbought for a long time. The unwinding of the Fed's balance sheet announced for this Fall along with rising interest rates are the harbingers of the contraction of the money supply by the central bank. As the money supply contracts, asset prices will contract with it. Since one of the biggest assets is the 20 trillion dollars in the stock market, it is inevitable that we will see a big contraction in stock prices. As this becomes apparent, prices will snowball in a downward direction, perhaps similar to 2008.. GLTA" FB: Up 107% since that comment AMZN: Up 280% since that comment AAPL: Up 271% since that comment NFLX: Up 219% since that comment GOOGL: Up 168% since that comment TSLA: Up 866% since that comment SPY: Up 89% since that comment As Jesse Livermore once said, "Markets are never wrong, opinions often are." [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 08 Jul 2021 03:27 AM PDT As a nearly retired person, who expects to drop out of the corporate rat race next year, an ever-increasing percentage of my assets have moved to Bond Funds. These include investments like AGG, BND, FTBFX, and VBTLX. Recently I have noticed that the dividends of these total bond ETFs and Mutual Funds have been dropping. About 30% since 2019. I can understand why when the Federal Reserve is buying bonds and keeping the rates low for savers and borrowers. But these low yields will greatly impact the returns people get from the bond funds for the upcoming future. Lowering total investment returns for your total portfolio. Are you bailing out of Bond Funds due to falling yields? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||
| When do you decide to cut your losses? Posted: 08 Jul 2021 04:28 AM PDT When is enough enough? I have been Investing just since January of this year, and I have been in the green maybe a total of 2 weeks since then. This week I have lost 12% of my total investment. I believe in all the companies I'm invested in long term, but right now bad news after bad news has led to a sell-off. How do you know when the free fall will stop? It seems like investing has just given me anxiety, I've invested in companies from multiple different sectors and etfs and they're all performing horribly, I don't know if I need to sell and purchase other investments, or if I'd be selling at the bottom. Any advice would be greatly appreciated [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||
| How can US citizen to invest in US ETFs, Roth, IRA or 401k while living in Switzerland Posted: 07 Jul 2021 04:48 AM PDT I'm living in Switzerland for the foreseable future highly unlikely at the moment that I wil be returning the US anytime soon (+10 years perhaps if I do return) Since 2018, PRIIPS regulations disallow European investors to invest in U.S. Funds. These regulations only allow investment in funds with a Key Investor Document (KID). And U.S. funds and ETFs do not provide this KID The Financial Services Acct (FinSA) and the Financial Institutions Act (FinIA) are the Swiss equivalents of the MiFID laws from the European Union. These laws will enter into effect in January 2020, but will only affect foreign brokers in 2022. And effectively, they should prevent Swiss investors to invest in U.S. funds. Platforms like Degiro have already stopped US based ETFs and IB will do the same in 2021/2. 1) I have a US address I can use to open an account with Vanguard/Schwab (which do you reccomend btw). But what are the implications of using this workaround while living in CH for the foreseeable future. 2) If I can start investing from abroad, what is the best way regarding funding the account as I'll be paid in swiss francs but buying USD etfs? Thank you so much in advance. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Discussion on the best education to be a better investor Posted: 08 Jul 2021 01:13 AM PDT First of all, I know that college will not teach you to be a good investor and that the best investors come from different backgrounds, but if you look at it, there are several patterns. Carl Icahn, George Soros, Peter Lynch, Peter Thiel, Bill Miller, Jim Rogers, and Guo Guangchang studied philosophy at the university. Icahn says that studying philosophy of the XXI prepares you for acquisitions; Peter Lynch in One Up on Wall Street assures that history and philosophy are the best preparations for investment than mathematics and statistics, and that his courses in logic and philosophy were the ones that helped him the most; Jim Rogers recommends studying history and philosophy in college; Dan Loeb says that to be a good investor you have to be a bit of a philosopher. David Abrams, Terry Smith, James Anderson, and Nick Train majored in history. Paul Singer and Leon Levy studied psychology. Steinhardt specialized in sociology. Stanley Druckenmiller studied English. Bill Ackman studied Social Sciences. David Einhorn and Stephen Mandel studied Government. There appears to be a pattern of lean towards the social sciences and the liberal arts. I personally want to pursue asset management professionally, and after reading the advice and suggestions of those I admire, I plan to study philosophy at university. So my question is: What do you think is the best college preparation for the investment world or what would you have studied to be a better investor? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Vanguard’s customer service is letting down. What should I do? Posted: 07 Jul 2021 01:45 PM PDT In February 2021 I tried to get my Roth IRA and IRA transferred over from New York life to Vanguard. Sometime in March, I had called vanguard and asked for an update. The guy told me that "no news is good news." So, I waited. In May, I reached out to NYL and asked what was going on on their side. They looked into and said that Vanguard filled out the paperwork incorrectly. I reached back out to Vanguard and they supposedly corrected the issues and we were on our way to getting the accounts transferred. So, I waited. Well, I just checked and see that the Roth has been transferred to vanguard as of June but the IRA is still with NYL and they said that they have no transfer request paperwork from Vanguard for it. I spent 2.5 hours yesterday on hold with Vanguard trying to talk to someone. Finally, I am able to talk to someone (in the wrong department) who told me that they were super busy since they were closed on Monday for the holiday and to call back on Friday because wait times shouldn't be as bad then. I tried calling the number he gave me, this morning but again was on hold for 20 minutes and had to hang up. My question is: do I continue to put up with this BS from Vanguard and get the IRA transferred over? Should I move the IRA to Fidelity and leave the Roth with Vanguard? Should I move everything to Fidelity? I am super annoyed about the situation because it shouldn't take 5 months to do this. TIA. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Historical inflation levels - 1914-2021 Posted: 07 Jul 2021 05:03 AM PDT I thought this table was worth passing along as it was interesting to scan the historical inflation percentages. The 70's and early 80's was rocked with high levels, but other than 1991 & 2008, levels have been low to moderate. Last month we hit 5% and that hadn't happened since 1991, the fed has remaining somewhat steady in their messaging but Janet's recent comments could be a indicator. (She said a little inflation is ok) I just wonder how much higher it could go, and what exactly transitory means from this point forward. We've all seen constant rotations this summer and it's been hard to get a grasp on where the market is moving. Are there higher levels of Inflation that can still warrant continued returns on growth names? Or are we entering a period of defense/value names? It's a very interesting time. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||
| any opinions on this offer to buy shares from Wise? Posted: 07 Jul 2021 08:52 PM PDT Currency transfer firm Wise is offering customers the opportunity to buy shares in it, for an additional bonus. I'd love to know your views on this investment opportunity. an overview of the company and offer is here https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2021/06/21/wise-is-good-but-is-it-a-sound-investment/ and here https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2021/07/07/should-i-buy-wise-shares-following-its-new-listing/ [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Does this bond allocation “substitution” make any sense? Posted: 07 Jul 2021 05:18 PM PDT I'm currently on a learning spree regarding the topic of portfolio allocation and diversification strategies. I'm a new investor (Jan '21) who began by blissfully picking individual stocks based on (in hindsight) not much at all. I'm just about finished with The Four Pillars of Investing and I have a whole stack of other books queued up. My question is this - considering the current interest rate environment and the possibility of rates finally being raised in the fairly near future, would it be a good or bad strategy to substitute an 80/20 stock to bond split with an 80/10/10 stock to REITs to Gold split? (Excluding bonds all together). I don't know how to feel about bonds. I've learned a lot about the historical performance of bonds versus stocks in The Four Pillars of Investing and part of me thinks I absolutely have to allocate 20% at least. But then when I take into account the current interest rate environment, as well as other schools of thought, I'm getting the feeling that it doesn't make sense right now. Maybe I should just be 100% stocks? Thanks in advance for your advice. I still have much to learn, so if my overall question strikes you as silly or misguided, that's why. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Having a hard time trying to be greedy while others are fearful. Posted: 07 Jul 2021 07:13 AM PDT Warren Buffet has many insightful sayings about investing and I wanted to ask the community how they feel about Chinese companies right now with China putting more restrictions on Chinese companies. I would like to be greedy at a time where many investors are a littlw fearful. But it seems like this statement only holds true in hindsight when evaluating the past. Whats everyones take? Hold, sell or buy? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Walgreens vs CVS - Which is a better buy? Posted: 07 Jul 2021 09:40 AM PDT I am looking to invest in either Walgreen (WBA) or CVS for the long term as I think both stocks are fairly valued at their current prices and would be a good buy for a long-term hold. However, if given the choice, which of the two stocks would you buy and why? Some pros and cons for both that I can think of: WBA Pros: - Sitting on a lot of cash after selling Alliance business for $6.3 billion - Had a good earnings report where they beat estimates and showed good growth - Hired Rosalind Brewer as their new CEO, who was instrumental in Starbucks' digital transformation as their COO - They are looking to open up urgent care style clinics in their stores which will drive more traffic - It offers a nice dividend of ~3.9% WBA Cons: - Their most recent earning numbers were good largely in part due to the Covid vaccine rush, which they predicted would be a lot less next quarter and later in the year - Wallstreet analysts are still not very bullish on the stock with a Hold rating on it and a 1 yr price target of $54 CVS Pros: - also offers a nice dividend yield of 2.4% - has more favorable analyst ratings and a 1 yr price target of $95 - has shown good growth and earnings - their merger with Aetna will help drive more customers to the stores for their in-store clinics CVS Cons: - could see a similar drop in traffic due to covid vaccine demands going down after summer - There are talks of Amazon moving into the pharmacy business but not sure how much of a threat that would pose and how realistic that is Thank you for your responses! [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Trading ETFs with low liquidity. Help me understand if this makes sense? Posted: 07 Jul 2021 02:01 PM PDT I'd like to buy SPD, which has a market cap of $230mil but a daily volume of only $700k. If I wanted to buy, say (hypothetical for understanding) 25% of the daily volume, I need to be careful about how I execute the trade, right? I'm thinking limit orders, broken up into several lots. I'm worried with low volume, that when I decide to sell it I may have the same problem in reverse and the liquidity could be even lower. Do you think the market cap is high enough not to worry about it? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 08 Jul 2021 04:48 AM PDT I recently got into investing and don't know a lot about it. I followed some suggestions which I think may not have been the best. I know this sub recommends vanguard, but I kinda yolo'd it and invested the following: Etoro: €3500 in copytrading Degiro: €1500 in vanguards €1000 in alibaba €500 in douyu €200 in Crowdstrike Total investment: €6700 So far I'm down -€110. Alibaba is currently plummeting an so is the Chinese industry. Am I panicking too early or should I short and rearrange my portfolio? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||
| How should I be thinking about foreign currency loans? Posted: 07 Jul 2021 01:42 PM PDT I have a loan in euro as a result of investing with a small amount of margin. The loan was taken in euro by default due to the ETF I bought trading in euros, and I haven't thought much of it. However, I have now started thinking I should probably think critically about which currency I have the loan in. The way I understand it, my position is now equivalent to short selling EUR (assuming the companies within the ETF are not correlated with EUR). What should I consider doing with this position? - Should I be looking at futures or something else to get a sense of market expectations? I'm just having a hard time wrapping my brain around this, so any help would be appreciated. Thank you! [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 07 Jul 2021 06:11 AM PDT Stockpile finally dropped the fees on both trading stocks and giving stock gifts: https://help.stockpile.com/en/articles/5390511-better-than-0-commissions While it's not the best app and has limited selections, it does offer custodial accounts and the ability to give stocks or funds as gift cards. It's a good way for kids to start investing, and the gift card feature is nice if they have relatives who want to help them invest. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||
| The utility (or otherwise) of CAPE Posted: 07 Jul 2021 06:28 AM PDT As someone who likes to stick with index funds and most of the passive investing mantras, I'm always intrigued by CAPE. I'm led to believe there's a moderate correlation between CAPE and forward stock returns. With the US stock market having an astronomical CAPE of 37 at present, the median expectation of those forward returns are -0.9% p.a. on a 10-year basis. Meanwhile, the same valuation mechanism is highly encouraging for the long underperforming emerging markets and Europe areas. It superficially seems quite a useful metric, and yet also, it's actually balls isn't it? Who here wants to plump all of their money in EM/Europe and out of the USA? If we had listened to CAPE 8 years ago, we'd have done abysmally, as those areas that haven't done well have largely continued not to. So I find myself believing that my forward returns are likely to be poor, whilst also not being anywhere near confident enough in the metric to either disinvest or substantially rebalance to low CAPE regions. I guess I'm asking, is anyone else wrestling with whether to pay attention to CAPE at all? Does it have any actionable value to you for your portfolio that I might not be appreciating? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||
| The relationship between intrinsic value factors and market price Posted: 07 Jul 2021 01:06 PM PDT The following is a slightly edited excerpt from the book Security Analysis. The passage was written in 1934 and it is amazing how valid it is today. In security analysis, there are two general attitudes that go into determining the market price of securities. They are investment attitudes and speculative attitudes. Speculative attitudes include the following: Market factors:
Speculative and investment attitudes may share the following attitudes: Future value factors:
Investment attitudes are distinct from speculative attitudes in that they asses objective intrinsic value factors: Intrinsic value factors:
All of these factors together form the attitude of the public towards the issue - causing them to present bids and asks at the price they deem appropriate to exchanges that in turn forms the current market price. Of course there have been many new developments since this was written, but big banks scalping for a few cents per share on each trade doesn't change the facts above. It seems like good practice to think about all of these before making a purchase or sale to form a final opinion on if the transaction is an investment or a speculation, and even to think about what the person on the opposite side of the transaction is thinking. Also goes to show that if efficient market theory really does exist, then the value of equities may be extremely disjoint with what its financial intrinsic value is. The purpose of this post is not to enrage or start an argument like how some people tend to interpret posts, but rather to create some discussion points and hopefully add to all of our knowledge base or at least make you take a second and think about it. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Understanding InteractiveBrokers commissions on EUR stock Posted: 07 Jul 2021 09:09 AM PDT To make sure I understand the IB Lite platform, I recently purchased 2 shares of GAS (NATURGY ENERGY GROUP SA). The trade was as follows:
I'm about to execute another buy order, for 4 shares, and I see the following:
This is a current projection and is subject to change. Based on this, I believe I am paying the 0.1% / 4 minimum described in the fixed fee section here (https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/index.php?f=1590&p=stocks1). I'm trying to make sure I don't incur in any unexpected additional fees, commissions, or just charges. Does anyone know if I'll have to pay any other maintenance fee, annual fee, or fee when I sell, or anything else? How about when I get dividends (if I do)? I know the information is "on their website", but these companies have a tendency to make fee structures difficult to figure out, so I want to double check and triple check before executing bigger trades. GAS/Naturgy is a Spanish company that trades in EUR (which is important for my calculation; US markets have completely different fee structures). [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Any good podcast recommendations? Posted: 07 Jul 2021 04:10 AM PDT Hey everyone, I'm looking for a good podcast or two to get into. I'm not usually a huge podcast person but will be beginning a new commute soon that will give me roughly an hour round trip in the car. I'd love to be able to make this time more beneficial than listening to the same songs on repeat. I'd love something that uploads fairly frequently (looking for somewhat of a daily listen), perhaps market updates of some kind? I'm far from an expert (I'm 20), so I'd prefer something that maybe isn't overly technical but open to all things. If you guys have any shows at all that you enjoy, I'd love to talk to you about them and give them a shot! [link] [comments]  |
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