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    Sunday, June 6, 2021

    Value Investing Medline - Largest Healthcare LBO

    Value Investing Medline - Largest Healthcare LBO


    Medline - Largest Healthcare LBO

    Posted: 05 Jun 2021 03:15 PM PDT

    At $34b EV likely a 20x EBITDA deal for a <10% margin business. Slowing topline growth but still a cash generative business that can do mid/high teen levered returns. Public comps are very attractively valued.

    If the family remains the largest shareholder that could imply ~$4b each for the 3-sponsors, and $5b stake for Mills. That leaves $29b in cash for the Mills family assuming 50/50 debt/equity!

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/group-including-blackstone-nears-deal-to-buy-medline-for-over-30-billion-11622910788

    Including a basic back of the envelope take at the possible math. Haven't included a div recap which will goose up the IRR. If this is anywhere close to reality then these are very aggressive assumptions - very high entry multiple and very high leverage!

    **EDIT**

    https://newsroom.medline.com/company-news/blackstone-carlyle-and-hellman-friedman-to-invest-in-medline

    After reading the press release on Medline website it seems to me that Medline may be retaining a much larger equity stake since the Mills are retaining full control from an economics and management standpoint. If so that can bring down the leverage considerably. This is not a traditional LBO as the news headlines are making it out to be.

    Think the pf ownership structure could look something like this:

    Mills 34%, BX, CG, HF 20% each, GIC 6%

    https://preview.redd.it/23yg74i4ui371.png?width=833&format=png&auto=webp&s=83ee2809901262dd0a5c626e912da49abdcd6cbf

    submitted by /u/ving2020
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