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    Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Fundamentals Friday Jun 18, 2021

    June 19, 2021

    Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Fundamentals Friday Jun 18, 2021

    r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Fundamentals Friday Jun 18, 2021

    Posted: 18 Jun 2021 02:30 AM PDT

    This is the daily discussion, so anything stocks related is fine, but the theme for today is on fundamentals, but if fundamentals aren't your thing then just ignore the theme and/or post your arguments against fundamentals here and not in the current post.

    Some helpful day to day links, including news:

    Most fundamentals are updated every 3 months due to the fact that corporations release earnings reports every quarter, so traders are always speculating at what those earnings will say, and investors may change the size of their holdings based on those reports. Expect a lot of volatility around earnings, but it usually doesn't matter if you're holding long term, but keep in mind the importance of earnings reports because a trend of declining earnings or a decline in some other fundamental will drive the stock down over the long term as well.

    See the following word cloud and click through for the wiki:

    Market Cap - Shares Outstanding - Volume - Dividend - EPS - P/E Ratio - EPS Q/Q - PEG - Sales Q/Q - Return on Assets (ROA) - Return on Equity (ROE) - BETA - SMA - quarterly earnings

    If you have a basic question, for example "what is EBITDA," then google "investopedia EBITDA" and click the Investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned.

    Useful links:

    See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Why is gold down with inflation on the rise?

    Posted: 18 Jun 2021 10:10 PM PDT

    There is visibly more to the story than what I thought to be a good bet. Is gold down due to the expected interest rate increase? Was the inflation already priced in and now with the Fed indicating that we're heading towards a new rate hike which is a direct measure to counteract the raise of the inflation it causes gold to drop?

    submitted by /u/Knackmanic
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    Don’t regret selling your stocks early

    Posted: 18 Jun 2021 05:44 AM PDT

    Stay calm and take advantage of opportunities. I wanted to come here and remind everyone before all the doom and gloom posts take over. The market pulling back is NORMAL, the recent news of a possible rate hike a couple quarters early is in my opinion an over reaction. Take the opportunity to buy shares of indexes or stocks you see getting oversold. The doom narrative may play out for another week or so but as always it will shift and the market will turn.

    submitted by /u/Maficinc
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    Carnival cruises is reporting it's earnings this week. Any reason not to throw everything on its failure?

    Posted: 19 Jun 2021 06:23 AM PDT

    Before open on thursday.

    Is there any reason I shouldn't absolutely unload my entire lifes worth on a short position this week? I can only open on the LSE under CCL.L

    I literally cannot see a single thing coming out of earnings that will make the stock go up. Even if CCL declare ships will be running by the end of the year (they won't), I refuse to believe that this will offset the incoming financial numbers.

    Their ships aint moved for 18 months. They've made zero cash. At least airlines (to some extent) have been able to move a little bit for business or freight, but ships are literaly a holiday play. It's also easier to get a plane up and running with 10 crew for a 6 hour flight, compared to a ship that needs 1000 crew and a 6 month journey to multiple countries that still don't want people coming.

    I mean, they currently have debt of...

    31 Billion Dollars

    And they only have cash on hand of 11 billion. Granted they have assets, but it's not like they're going to start selling ships to clear the debt.

    It will take them YEARS to get back to being a company that can make any money at all.

    The stock is down 50% since covid hit, although over the last 6 months, has climbed steadily from 13 to 28$. I think people are "buying the dip" but i'd argue the dip will last years.

    Am I missing something here?

    submitted by /u/RedditAdminBrainlets
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    Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 21st, 2021

    Posted: 18 Jun 2021 04:20 PM PDT

    Good Friday evening to all of you here on r/stocks. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.

    Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 21st, 2021.

    The Fed will continue to dominate the market in the week ahead after sell-off - (Source)

    The Federal Reserve's signal that it is looking to step away from some of its easy policy is expected to be a dominant trading theme in the week ahead and likely for the rest of the summer.

    In the past week, investors repositioned across the financial markets after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday that the central bank was considering tapering its purchases of Treasurys and mortgage securities. That is important since when the Fed eventually acts, it would be the first serious reversal of the easy policies it put in place to add liquidity to markets when the economy shut down last year because of the Covid crisis.

    The purchases, which amount to $120 billion a month, would be gradually whittled away once the Fed decides to slow down and end the bond buying, or quantitative easing. That could then open the door to interest rate hikes, which the Fed now projects would come in 2023.

    The Federal Reserve sent ripples across financial markets after its meeting Wednesday. The dollar jumped, stocks fell and bond yields moved to imply higher short-term interest rates in the future. The Dow fell 3.5%, its worst week since October. The S&P 500 was down 1.9% for the week, its worst weekly loss since February, and the Nasdaq lost just 0.3%, helped by a small weekly gain in tech.

    "I think the market is still digesting the Fed meeting," said Ed Keon, chief investment strategist at QMA. Stocks were trading sharply lower Friday, after weakness Wednesday and Thursday. Yields fell on longer duration bonds, like the benchmark 10-year, but rose on the shorter duration 2- and 5-year notes.

    The spreads between those shorter-duration notes and the 10- and 30-year bond yields narrowed dramatically in a so-called flattening trade. That's common when interest rates are rising. The higher short rates reflect the expected increases in the fed funds rate, while the longer duration yields fall, because the thinking historically has been that a tightening Fed slows the economy.

    The Fed also provided new economic forecasts, including a chart on interest rates that shows it expects to hike its fed funds rate twice in 2023, after its prior forecast included no increases.

    Fed speakers will get a lot of attention in the week ahead. Powell speaks Tuesday before the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis on the Fed's policy response and the economy. His remarks could be a highlight of what looks to be a slow, but volatile first week of summer for markets.

    There are a number of other Fed officials speaking, including New York Fed President John Williams on Monday and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, both Tuesday. Other Fed speakers include Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard.

    "Getting more color from others will certainly be key," said Peter Boockvar, chief investment strategist at Bleakley Global Advisors. "I'm most interested certainly in what Powell has to say. They're all going to give us now the fine print of what was in the statement and what Powell said" at the end of the Fed's June meeting.

    There should be a lot of interest in personal consumption expenditures data next Friday, since it includes the PCE inflation index, closely watched by the Fed. The Fed has been pressing its view that elevated inflation readings are just temporary and that they should calm down next year.

    Boockvar said the inflation data should reflect the same spike in prices that showed up in the consumer price index for May, up 5% year over year.

    "It's going to show some pretty robust month-over-month increases," said Boockvar. He said inflation data will be the most important for markets.

    "That's what the rest of the year is all about — inflation, inflation, inflation and how does the Federal Reserve adjust to that," he said. "In this inflation debate, it's not just a U.S. thing, it's a global thing."

    While the Fed has now penciled in two interest rate hikes for 2023, the market is more skeptical about inflation. According to futures markets, investors believe there could be one or more rate hikes next year and at least four in total before the end of 2023.

    The Fed forecast 3.4% PCE inflation for this year, up a full point from its March forecast, but it still expects a tame 2.1% pace next year.

    Housing data will also be of big interest to markets, after the Fed's tiny step forward toward tightening unleased a surge in mortgage rates.

    The rate for the 30-year fixed loan jumped to 3.25% by Thursday, the highest in months, according to Mortgage News Daily. The Fed is currently purchasing about $40 billion a month in mortgage securities, and that would slow down along with Treasury buying.

    Existing home sales are released Tuesday, and new home sales are reported Wednesday.

    Value versus growth

    Keon said the market is choppy but taking in stride the change in the Fed. He said he has overweight stocks in his portfolios. "We like that position with earnings likely to grow 40% this year, rates staying pretty low. That's a good environment for stocks," he said.

    As the market traded lower this past week, tech and some growth names held their ground. Tech was barely positive, registering a nearly 0.1% gain for the week. The worst performing sectors were in the value space — commodities-related or part of the reopening cyclical trade.

    Materials were down 6.3% for the week, and financials were down more than 6% as a flattening yield curve has the potential to hurt bank profits.

    "We had a very good move for value stocks and for the reopening plays. They really did well for six months or so," said Keon. "There's nothing in the market that keeps going forever. This is probably a bit of a counter rotation. Whether it's the beginning of a major shift or a slight bounce back [for tech], is hard to say and rates are going to be a determinant."

    Keon said if the closely watched 10-year yield goes to 2% from its current 1.5%, that would be a positive for value stocks. But if it stays anchored around 1.5%, tech could continue to do well.

    The 10-year yield, which is the benchmark Treasury, fluctuated widely in the past week. After starting the week at about 1.45%, it moved higher right after the Fed meeting to as high as 1.59% but then fell back down to about 1.44% Friday afternoon.

    The 2-year note yielded 0.256% on Friday, up sharply from the prior week's Friday close of 0.149%.

    "My guess is that the thinking is that at the press conference, Powell made it pretty clear he has no intention of raising rates until 2023," said Keon. "Until you get to 2023, you're going to get the boom we are in now, and you're going to get pretty strong growth in 2022. By the time, you get to 2023, the economy is going to be slowing and is the Fed going to raise rates in a slowing economy? Probably not."

    Keon said that would keep a cap on the size of the Fed rate hikes. He said there's little chance the Fed will hike before 2023 unless there's an upside surprise in inflation.

    "The market thinks the Fed is not going to raise rates until 2023, absent an unexpected surprise to inflation, and that they're not going to raise rates that much in 2023 because they'll be risking a recession," he said.

    Julian Emanuel, head of equities and derivatives strategy at BTIG, said the Fed has now injected a new level of volatility into the markets. He expects investors will be on edge now as the Fed's late July meeting approaches and again as the Fed heads to Jackson Hole, Wyoming, in late August for its annual symposium.

    Many economists expect Jackson Hole to be the forum where the Fed releases details of the tapering program. Once the Fed announces it will cut back, it is then expected to wait a few months before slowly paring back the purchases over many months. The end of the easing program is important since it would then open the door to a potential rate hike, based on the strength of the economy.

    "The narrative here is the markets are likely to continue going back and forth with regard to their view on the Fed assessment of whether transitory is correct or not," Emanuel said. "Transitory" is how the Fed describes its view that the surge in inflation will be short-lived.

    In the past week, some of the inflationary pressure in the market dissipated with a major sell-off across the commodities complex. The Fed's policy talk helped spur a surge in the dollar, which was part of the reason for the selling. But the first catalyst was a move by China to cool the hot commodities markets. Reuters reported that a Chinese government agency planned to release reserves of aluminum, copper and zinc.

    Copper was down more than 8.4% on the week, its worst week since March 2020.

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

    S&P Sectors for this past week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

    Major Indices for this past week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

    Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

    Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

    ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!]())

    (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!)

    Down Triple Witching Weeks Trigger More Weakness Week After

    As stocks continue to sell off on this Q2 Triple Witching Friday it is a good time to review the history and the pattern of down Triple Witching Weeks triggering more weakness the week after. This phenomenon is detailed on page 106 of the Stock Trader's Almanac page 2022. The updated table of the four annual DJIA TWWs is pictured here.

    The most important fact to note is that the week after TWW is the worst in Q2 – down 26 of the past 30 years since 1991. Down TWWs not only trigger weakness the week after, but that trend is most pronounce in Q2 and Q3 – the quarters within the Worst Six Months. Since 1991, of 39 down TWWs, 27 following weeks were also down. But in Q2 10 of the 12 down TWWs were followed by a down week after and it's 11 of 12 in Q3.

    Proceed with caution next week. And Happy Father's Day to all the dads!

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Big Drops In The Percent of Stocks Above Their 50-DMAs

    In yesterday's Sector Snapshot, we highlighted how the internals of several sectors have weakened dramatically in recent days. One such measure in which there are drastic differences versus a couple of weeks ago is the reading on the percentage of stocks above their 50-DMAs. In the charts below, we show the changes in this reading across sectors and for the broader S&P 500.

    As shown, the two sectors which have seen the largest share of their stocks fall below the support of their 50-DMAs are Financials and Materials. Two weeks ago, both of these sectors boasted some of the strongest readings of all sectors, but through yesterday, those readings have fallen over 60 percentage points. Meanwhile, Energy and Real Estate have seen almost all of their stocks trade above their 50-DMAs over the past two weeks without much change. While the declines were not as dramatic as Materials and Financials, Industrials and Consumer Staples have also seen a significant share of their members fall below their 50-DMAs. While most sectors have seen a decline in this reading, Tech and Health Care have been notable standouts with both sectors having more stocks above their 50-DMAs now than two weeks ago. This is indicative of the rotation that has been going on underneath the surface throughout the entire bull market that began when the S&P made its 2020 low after the COVID Crash last March.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Leading Indicators Continue to Forecast Growth

    As the economic focus has frantically shifted from inflation concerns to peak growth fears to the Federal Reserve's (Fed) tightening timeline in recent weeks, it can be helpful to take a step back and assess the broad economic trend with a diversified set of indicators.

    Through this lens, we are encouraged by the latest reading of the Leading Economic Index (LEI), which strongly suggested that economic growth would continue at a strong clip in the near-to-intermediate term.

    On Thursday, June 17, the Conference Board released its May 2021 report detailing the latest datapoint for the LEI, a composite of ten data series that tend to lead changes in economic activity. Many economic data points are backward looking, but we pay special attention to the LEI, as it has a forward-looking tilt to it and spans many segments of the economy. The index grew 1.3% month over month, building on the strength seen in recent months since flirting with negative territory in February.

    "Three consecutive monthly gains in excess of 1% tend to be rare, and in fact, we never experienced that coming out of the 2008 recession," said LPL Financial Chief Investment Strategist Ryan Detrick. "That we have seen this dynamic twice now exiting the trough of the most recent recession speaks to the speed and strength of the recovery. We certainly understand near-term jitters, but we expect broader economic trends to remain positive over the intermediate term, consistent with the LEI's message."

    As seen in the LPL Chart of the Day, the LEI has shown strong growth the last three months after limping through the second half of winter.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

    Seven of the ten components grew in May, while two fell and one remained unchanged. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, the ISM New Orders Index, and the interest rate spread represented the three largest contributors. Building permits and manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft detracted from the overall index's performance, while average weekly manufacturing hours held steady.

    Strong breadth among the underlying components reinforces our view of continued economic strength. While supply chain bottlenecks and a slower-than-desired labor market recovery have acted as near term speedbumps, we expect those dynamics to largely self-correct and propel the economy further in the second half of the year. Reopening effects are snowballing, and we believe ever-increasing vaccination numbers, warmer weather, and the potential for strong employment growth later in 2021 warrant continued optimism for this economy.

    Citi Surprise Indices Surging But Not Everywhere

    It is a boring start to the week with nothing on the docket for earnings, Fed speakers, or economic data. With regards to the latter, the slate will pick up tomorrow with several US releases including retail sales, PPI, industrial production, and more. Expectations for tomorrow's releases are a bit mixed relative to the prior readings in each indicator, but overall, recent US data has been beating expectations at a healthy rate. The charts below show the Citi Economic Surprise indices for a variety of global regions and the US. Positive readings in these indices indicate economic data is coming in above forecasts, and vice versa for negative readings. Additionally, higher positive or negative readings would mean that economic data is exceeding or coming up short of those forecasts by a wider margin.

    Currently, the US index is well off record levels from the past year, but it has bounced since the start of June. The index has risen 42.7 points in the ten days from the end of May to last Friday. That move stands in the top 2% of all 10-day changes since the index began in 2003. That also comes not even a full month after the index saw its first negative reading in a year. While the negative reading was far from anything extreme, the sharp rebound has been impressive, leaving the index at a historically healthy level in the 83rd percentile.

    The US is not alone in having seen a rebound. Although it is similarly off the peak from last summer and generally trending lower since then, the global index has consistently sat at the high end of its historical range over the past year. The current reading is still in the top 1% of all periods, and the move higher over the past ten days is again dramatic ranking in the top 5% of ten-day changes in the index's history. While the jump in the US index has likely played at least some part in this, other regions around the world are also pulling weight having seen just as, if not more, significant moves. Sticking with a look at the move over the past ten days, the gains for the indices covering APAC and Central/Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Africa all rank in the 98th percentile while the move in the index tracking Latin American countries ranks in the top decile. Each of these indices now sits in the top 1% or 2% of their historical ranges. One outlier region not contributing to the pickup in the global index has been Europe. While the Eurozone index is far from weak, it has not seen much of a move higher recently as other regions have.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Likely thanks to the weakness in Eurozone countries, a similar dichotomy can be seen comparing the indices for major developed economies (the G10 members) and emerging market countries. While the index tracking major economies has simply held up at healthy levels, the emerging markets index has leaped to new record highs, breaking well above the previous records set earlier in the pandemic. BRIC countries in particular are some to thank for that sharp move higher as the index has seen one of its largest short-term moves on record.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    June Quarterly Options Expiration Week and After Historically Volatile

    The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, DJIA has been up ten of the last eighteen years, but down five of the last six.

    Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 27 of the last 31 years with an average performance of –1.14%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared slightly better during the week after over the same 31-year span, declining 0.79% and 0.29% respectively on average.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Sentiment Shaky

    Although there has not been any sort of dramatic breakout to the upside as the index has fallen over the past few days, the S&P 500 did manage to tag new record highs in the past week for the first time since May 10th. The record-high milestone has done little to shift sentiment though. The AAII survey of individual investor sentiment saw its reading on bullish sentiment rise 0.9 percentage points to 41.1%. While higher, that is still three points below the reading from just a couple of weeks ago.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    The biggest move was in neutral sentiment as that reading fell 6.4 percentage points to 32.7%. That is the lowest reading in over a month and marked the biggest drop in neutral sentiment since the week of April 8th. Even though that was a big drop, neutral sentiment remains slightly elevated versus the historical average (31.42%) and especially relative to what has been the norm over the past year.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    The past couple of weeks have seen historically muted readings on bearish sentiment. While that is still the case with this week's readings remaining at the low end of its historical range, bearish sentiment saw a big 5.5 percentage point gain rising to 26.2%. That one-week uptick in bearish sentiment was the largest since last September. It also marked the first time since the end of last month that over a quarter of respondents reported as bearish. While the move was not nearly as large, the Investors Intelligence survey echoed that increase in bearish sentiment with the bull-bear spread in that survey falling from 38.3 to 37.8 after inverse moves in bullish and bearish sentiment. In other words, broadly speaking, optimism has appeared to have peaked for the time being.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-

    • (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
    ([CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())

    (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

    (CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)

    Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

    Monday 6.21.21 Before Market Open:

    ([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())

    (NONE.)

    Monday 6.21.21 After Market Close:

    ([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())

    (NONE.)

    Tuesday 6.22.21 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Tuesday 6.22.21 After Market Close:

    ([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

    (NONE.)

    Wednesday 6.23.21 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Wednesday 6.23.21 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Thursday 6.24.21 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Thursday 6.24.21 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)

    Friday 6.25.21 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)

    Friday 6.25.21 After Market Close:

    ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

    (NONE.)

    (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

    (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    DISCUSS!

    What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

    I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead r/stocks.

    submitted by /u/bigbear0083
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    Tax on 17 cents?

    Posted: 19 Jun 2021 06:54 AM PDT

    I've recently turned 18 and have been using paper trade sites on and off since middle school. I eagerly made an account and wanted to try my first real trade. I bought ALF to see how buying works on the platform. A minute later I sold for 17 cents profit to see how that works. I forgot that taxes exist, will I need to fill out taxes for 17 cents? I don't know exactly how that works. I looked online and apparently if you make under 40,000$ it's 0% tax but honestly I don't know what I was looking at or if that information is accurate. Any information would be helpful, thank you.

    submitted by /u/pawspk
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    How to track annual return?

    Posted: 19 Jun 2021 04:44 AM PDT

    Hi guys,

    I have a pretty basic question and excuse me if it sounds stupid.

    What methods do you use to track your annual return when you deposit funds monthly, weekly, etc.

    I'm asking because I'm trying to figure out how my investments are performing compared to the different market indices, but this seems difficult knowing that I'll have to monitor each of the deposits for their respective time in the market.

    I'm not sure if this makes sense for you, but I would like to know how you track your performance compared to the broad market.

    submitted by /u/DirijableTK
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    Investor Relations Advice?

    Posted: 19 Jun 2021 06:56 AM PDT

    Any best practices on gaining information from investor relations? I'm not sure what to even ask so I'm interested in learning what other people do.

    Not sure what IR teams can say that isn't public.

    Thanks!

    submitted by /u/sibat7
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    BP as a long term play?

    Posted: 19 Jun 2021 06:47 AM PDT

    What are your thoughts on BP? Obviously there is investor uncertainty with the ethics of this company and things are looking rocky as they are trying to head towards renewable energy. If they succeed, surely they are there to profit from the inevitable shift to clean energy? We've seen a rather large drop due to the pandemic but it hasn't recovered unlike most of the stock market. Dividend payouts are also quite attractive but I'm not sure how reliable they will be into the future. As far as I'm aware there hasn't been too much share dilution either which might've explained the downfall.

    What is the general consensus?

    Also, why is there a discrepancy between the market cap on the LSE and NYSE?

    submitted by /u/theepicone111
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    Why the markets are diving today

    Posted: 18 Jun 2021 09:23 AM PDT

    St Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard - who very often is seen as a dove on policy by Fed watchers - surprised markets on Friday with language on interest rates that some on Wall Street deemed aggressive,

    "I think it's natural that we've tilted a little bit more hawkish here to contain inflationary pressures." he said in a CNBC interview, citing recent improvement in the economy. Bullard said he see's the potential for an interest rate increase as soon as 2022, ahead of the timeline of most of Wall Street forecasts (and his Fed colleagues)

    submitted by /u/LegendLarrynumero1
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    Would Chinese VIE companies ever pay out dividends?

    Posted: 19 Jun 2021 05:28 AM PDT

    I was looking for Chinese stocks that would pay decent dividends (at least 2-3%), however, I cannot find any? I am wondering if the VIE structure has anything to do with that. If we buy BABA, NIO, TCEHY or whatever else, we don't get any actual ownership.

    AFAIK VIE works like the following. Chinese laws forbid foreigners from owning Chinese stocks. So the Chinese stock you buy actually only grants you a stake in some Cayman Islands-registered entity. These entities are under contracts to receive some profits from the Chinese assets but not to actually own them. This is how BABA, NIO, XPEV or whatever else Chinese works like. Besides, VIE technically is illegal but China has been silent on that.(more on the VIE structure https://globescancapital.com/chinese-vie-structure-wall-street-continues-to-ignore-the-risks/)

    Aside from all the political risks, I am wondering - if a Chinese company no longer needs to raise capital in the West, why would it keep the obligation to share profits with the shareholders? If the VIE structure is not enforceable, the shareholders of the Cayman Island companies (again: BABA, XPEV, NIO) could end up with empty bags while the profits would go to CEO/board/Chinese shareholders.

    Also given that shareholders are not entitled to any ACTUAL entity in the Chinese company, the board/CEO can decide to simply transfer ownership of the company's assets to somewhere else thus leaving shareholders emptyhanded and thus NIO, BABA and whatever else could easily go to 0 while the actual companies may thrive.

    And this can harm not only retail. There was this dispute between Yahoo and Alibaba when Jack Ma transfered ownership of Alipay from the group to an entity controlled by himself and didn't even inform other shareholders.(https://www.ft.com/content/40a66dd2-b9ec-11e0-8171-00144feabdc0)

    So if the Chinese companies trading under VIE structure don't pay out their profits (technically the sole reason for the VIE structure), it looks like they should be bought only for speculation purposes.

    Are there any Chinese well established companies that share their profits and pay decent dividends to their VIE shareholders?

    submitted by /u/clint1reid
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    Why I'm bullish on CRSR

    Posted: 18 Jun 2021 04:00 PM PDT

    I would like to preface this by saying that no I'm not a bag holder, although I am invested in the company I don't have an insane cost basis at like 35 or something. Also, I'm not saying we pump this stock this is just my DD so mods please don't remove my post again I put in a decent bit of effort lol and this isn't another shit post.

    First, CRSR is trading at a P/E of just 20 which is extremely low compared to the previous growth it's had. Of course, CRSR can't sustain their growth from last year but they will continue to grow nonetheless. Their competitors such as Logitech are trading at slightly higher P/E's yet are 7x the size of them indicating once again how low their P/E is for their sector.

    Then, their free cash flow is very strong. With most companies I would like to see them trading at around a 20x free cash flow or 25x if their growth is strong. For a company like Corsair 20x seems low and 25x would seem reasonable yet they are trading at just 16x FREE CASH FLOW. N

    Not to mention they are trading at a P/S of less than 2 and I understand that they have low margins but this is still very good for a relatively small company. Additionally, with Corsairs strong cash on hand this provides them with the opportunity to possibly improve their management or put more money into paid promotions with youtube/twitch streamers which I believe is much needed.

    Lastly, when I used my DCF model assuming 11% growth for the next 3 years, then 9 percent growth for the next 3 after that, and lastly 8 percent growth for the next 3 years then CRSR has a margin of safety 28% and an intrinsic share value of 41. Also remember, I am assuming somewhat conservative growth numbers.

    Finally, one of the main arguments against CRSR is that they cannot maintain their growth from last year and they will in fact shrink but this was proven completely wrong in q1 of 2021 where they continued to grow.

    submitted by /u/Miladyboi
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    Reverse Repo Market

    Posted: 18 Jun 2021 06:35 AM PDT

    As many of you know, the reverse repo market is hitting record highs (750b+) and a new rate of 0.05%. What exactly does this mean for the market in general? Indicative of a crash or nothing to worry about for now?

    submitted by /u/DriftingKing
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    Non-speculative stocks

    Posted: 18 Jun 2021 04:49 PM PDT

    I've been a passive investor since I graduated from college (ETFs, etc) and have gotten into stock options recently. Meme stocks aside, can we share some recommendations for the best companies within your field of interest? I don't want potential good buys, I want to know which companies in your field are the best of the best. I think there is a huge crash coming and I want to know which companies/products are going to survive and rebound the fastest.

    On my end, I'm a veterinarian and I would vouch for Zoetis. Zoetis is an offshoot from Pfizer, basically doing the animal side of medicine from the best pharmaceutical company. They're going to come out with injectable pain medication for both canine and feline arthritis, with FDA approval pending in late 2021 or early 2022. I'm also a fan of figs scrubs, which just went public. They're high-quality scrubs (which need frequent replacement) and they are also expanding into workout options.

    Can you guys contribute your own recommendations outside of the big tech companies? Thanks so much!

    submitted by /u/kittenthief
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    Help understand what Macro speculation drove financials parabolic

    Posted: 18 Jun 2021 10:38 PM PDT

    It has been a while since I brushed up on macro policy, and it is a headache to keep up.

    Can anyone help me better understand what speculation pumped financials from January to now, and why yield curves are flattening with the earlier expectation of increased interest rates? From my understanding the Fed raised inflation expectations for the year which should theoretically increase nominal yields. I suppose the Fed still is targeting 2% in the following years so maybe that is irrelevant for long dated bonds. But the big shocker is that interest rates are expected to climb earlier than anticipated and then the 10Y climbs and then sells off hard.

    From Investopedia,

    "One reason the yield curve may flatten is market participants may be expecting ... the Federal Reserve to raise the federal funds rate in the near term."

    So I guess this market behavior is normal but I just cannot see why the relationship exists.

    Or is there just a flight to safety regardless because of all the uncertainty with macro policy? Please help me find my aha moment...

    submitted by /u/SoFlaccid
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    VOO vs FXIAX vs VTSAX etc

    Posted: 18 Jun 2021 07:31 PM PDT

    I've been in the investing world for a little bit of time, maybe about 5 years in total, and only within the last year and a half or so have I gotten really into it and doing more, in-depth research on companies and ETF's and the like. While I have a decent enough understanding of what I'm doing to ensure that I am generally in the green on my portfolio so I'm content with that, but I always am trying to learn more and really make my investments for the long term gains rather than short term quick profits. I have a rather demanding job at times and so I'm a lot more interested in set it and forget it type investments than constant monitoring.

    So this gets me to the meat of my question: I have read multiple posts and comments across Reddit recommending VOO, VTI, and the like. I understand that both of those are ETF's that track the S&P500 and total market respectfully. They each have a cost basis to them of 0.03% which makes sense. VTSAX is also recommended for folks who have a little more money in the game because it has a buy-in minimum of $2500 right now with a cost basis 0f 0.03%. I use Fidelity as my brokerage and I was researching these funds and noticed one offered Fidelity called FXIAX that acts pretty much identical to VTSAX and VOO but has a $0 buy-in with a cost basis of 0.015% which seems a lot more desirable to me as it meets all the things I'm looking for and is about 50% cheaper than the vanguard options.

    ​

    Am I missing something in my overall evaluation or is FXIAX just not generally talked abiout in general which is why I never saw it?

    submitted by /u/CRUNCHYpretzel20
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    Intel Processor Market Share May Fall to New Low Next Year Due to Apple Silicon

    Posted: 18 Jun 2021 04:47 AM PDT

    Intel may see its market share fall to a new low next year, in large part thanks to Apple's decision to move away from using Intel processors in its Mac computers and instead use Apple silicon.

    As a result of the four Macs with ‌M1‌ and upcoming releases, Intel this year will lose 50% of its orders from Apple, and eventually, losing all orders from the Cupertino tech giant will lead to Intel's market share falling below 80% in 2023, according to DigiTimes.

    However, Apple's in-house developed Arm-based processor series is expected to play the key role in taking a major chunk from Intel's share in the upcoming year, the sources said.

    Intel is expected to lose nearly 50% of its orders from Apple in 2021 and will eventually obtain no orders from the client. Losing Apple's 10% market share and seeing AMD staying firmly with another 10%, Intel's share in the notebook market is likely to slip below 80% in 2023, the sources noted.

    https://www.macrumors.com/2021/06/18/intel-market-share-falling-apple-silicon/

    submitted by /u/chrisdh79
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    What are your favorite metrics to look at when valuing stocks?

    Posted: 18 Jun 2021 12:20 PM PDT

    Hi everyone,

    I wanted to get an idea of what everyone on here looks at when valuing stocks. Do you look at forward p/e, ev/ebidta, current ratio, quick ratio, net debt/ebidta, etc. I understand that different sectors have different capital structures so your insights on what ratios are important in relation to various sectors would be interesting to hear.

    Hope everyone has a great weekend!

    submitted by /u/Tedi_Westside
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    EGLX - leading eSports company is way over shorted

    Posted: 18 Jun 2021 10:24 AM PDT

    First, let me be clear. I am NOT a GME and AMC ape. To be honest, I hate that crowd and the way they approach investing. I am not an ambulance chaser jumping on struggling companies in hopes that some dumb reddit trend will make me a quick 10%.

    But that does not change the facts about what is going on right now. Enthusiast Gaming, the leading eSports organization in North America (as measured social reach, web traffic and revenue) is being shorted to death.

    After an epic, fundamentals driven rally from $1 to $8.80, the stock has been beaten down to $6.50.

    It's very important to note that the rally was not a senseless meme pump. The company's revenue grew from $15m per year to $127m. They also announced a litany of high profile fortune 500 and government clients that hired them. The company is not fluff.

    If the company is doing okay, then how come it's down so much? Well the catalyst that kicked off the downtrend was their announcement of share sales. As a newly registered Nasdaq company, they had to file forms with the SEC that would allow them to sell shares over the next 25 months. That process took a few weeks to complete before they could close a deal.

    During that time, the shorts have had their way with EGLX. You can see a detailed chart of shorting activity over the past several weeks here: https://www.nakedshortreport.com/company/EGLX

    The company has a tiny little market cap and the stock volume has been relatively low. A small number of short sellers have been able to exercise extreme market power over this company.

    But now they have overstayed their welcome. They have raised the capital and the financials are sound. The company's actual business is doing great and the industry will continue booming.

    Every single morning since the deal closed, EGLX has tried pumping back up, and then it settles down. But the stock selling pressure is not coming from long term holders giving up their positions. It is coming from short sellers trying to make a quick buck at the expense of a great Canadian company.

    According to this source, short interest was 38% yesterday.

    https://www.nakedshortreport.com/company/EGLX

    I am willing to bet the short interest will be even higher on Monday. The stock started popping off this morning and then fell precipitously again.

    But how do I know this company isn't just dog doodoo and shareholders are dumping?

    Look at the cost to borrow: https://fintel.io/ss/us/eglx

    This shorting is costing the shorts 9%! Compare that to AMC's 1.16% and GME's 0.59% short borrowing cost.

    Get wrecked.

    This high cost to borrow means a couple things:

    1. There is an extremely high number of short sellers compared to people who are willing to lend out their shares. That indicates its over shorted and holders are hodling.
    2. It also means this is costing them ALOT every day this stock doesn't go down further.

    Now, if this company was a steaming pile of trash that isn't making money, I would say the shorts will just kill EGLX and win the day. I do NOT advocate in investing in dying companies in hopes of some bogus short squeeze.

    But EGLX will not die. It is genuinely a great long term opportunity, and the bears have gotten ahead of themselves on this one. This company is here to stay, for a number of obvious reasons.

    Reason 1: Common sense:

    The eSports and gaming industry is growing and these guys have developed a real business out of it. They are doing business with: TikTok, Samsung, ATVI, EA, President Biden's Campaign, the US military, Ad Council, Disney, Bell, Nintendo etc etc. What's more, they are producing results for them. Take a scroll through the luminosity LGLoyal twitch page, and you can see that EGLX has been getting about a million views on every single video with the program they developed with TikTok. TikTok has already indicated they intend to continue to do business with EGLX.

    Reason 2: They have cash:

    They just successfully raised another $44m in cash. Looking at their recent financials, I think that probably puts them around $60m cash in the bank right now. They are not going to run out of liquidity. They are not some business on the verge of bankruptcy, desperate for funding and debt.

    Reason 3: They are NOT overpriced:

    In a market where most high volatility growth names like say Palantir, Zoom, BB, Score, Tesla, Dkng etc are all trading at like a 10-50X price to sales ratio, EGLX is sitting at a measly 6.5 price to sales. That is a tad high when you compare it to stable value stocks in the Berkshire portfolio, but honestly it's PEANUTS for a growth stock in a hot industry that just expanded their revenue ten fold.

    This stock will rubber band back to $10 when these shorts give up.

    submitted by /u/Troflecopter
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    OXY exit target of $48 a share based on potential free cash flow

    Posted: 18 Jun 2021 04:39 PM PDT

    Been following OXY for awhile and am starting to think about exit targets for OXY.

    If OXY went back to it's 2019 pre-covid market cap low of $31.5 billion, it would be about $33.76 per share. That, for me is the low side of targeting an exit for an OXY position.

    Of a free cash flow basis, with WTI oil at, say, $62.50 a barrel, based on their last earnings filings, I expect OXY would have about $2 billion in free cash flow after cap-ex expenses. That gives $8 billion in free cash flow for the year if WTI oil stayed at $62.50 a barrel for 4 quarters. OXY's pre-covid and pre-Anadarko 2018-2019 price to free cash flow ratio was in the 4 to 8 range. Using a ration of 6 that would give price per share based on expected cash flow of $48.

    With WTI oil above $62.50, OXY's annual free cash flow increases (per their earning report slides) $250 million annually. So, with oil currently at $72, this is somewhat of a conservative free cash flow analysis as, if WTI oil stayed at $72, that would be a roughly $2.5 billion increase giving total free cash flow, if it stayed at that level for a year, of $10.5 billion. Which would then be a share price of $63. Note that this is somewhat of a best case scenario and, if this were to occur, OXY could essentially use that $10.5 billion to pay back debt and get back to investment grade level ratings which would likely further drive up the price.

    So, overall, taking the middle ground approach of $62.5 a barrel which, at this point, it seems is pretty achievable, the exit target would be about $48. Either way, it seems like $33.5 is sort of the absolute low side exit point, assuming oil doesn't crash again in the next 12 months.

    ​

    Summary: If oil stays above $60 a barrel for a year, good chance OXY trends up to at least the $45 range. Low side range for OXY, assuming oil doesn't crash, is probably in the $35 range.

    submitted by /u/JuanPabloElTres
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    Help confirm my understanding of Covered Calls?

    Posted: 18 Jun 2021 11:02 AM PDT

    So I was thinking about testing the waters with covered calls and I wanted to make sure my understanding was correct.

    I buy 100 Stock of XYZ @ $10 = $1000

    I can then sell a Call and basically use my 100 shares as collateral.

    For example: I can sell a $15 Call for $100 premium.

    Based on my understanding, my worst case scenario is that the stock goes above $15 and the option is exercised. So at that point I sell all my shares @ $15 which would ultimately give me a $600 profit (15*100 + $100 premium - $1000 initial investment). So while I may miss out on potentially bigger gains if it rockets past 15, there is no way I can actually lose money doing this right?

    submitted by /u/raydawg2000
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    How long is a sector rotation supposed to last?

    Posted: 18 Jun 2021 06:19 PM PDT

    Back in early May my growth portfolio took a huge dump (bigger dip for me than COVID) and all the news headlines and all the Reddit experts were claiming that there was a rotation from growth stocks into value stocks and commodities. I got the impression that this was supposed to be a long term thing. Luckily I didn't move any of my positions and I've fully recovered. Seems like the value and commodity stocks have dumped again.

    Are sector rotations supposed to happen that quickly?

    submitted by /u/Jasonmv222
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    Can Mcdonald's be considered an investment in both the Consumer Discretionary and Real Estate sectors?

    Posted: 18 Jun 2021 10:46 AM PDT

    I was doing some research into this stock, and a common theme was that Mcdonald's owns a lot of the land under the stores, and they can collect rent from franchise owners. One of their former CEOs told investors to think of the company more as a real estate investment. Can this business model be considered a hedge against competition or falling food sales? My reasoning for this would be if they had to close a number of locations for whatever reason, they at least still have the land, and this land is usually in busy and expensive locations in town. Thanks

    submitted by /u/Hayden97
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    help me understand puts: buying a put, selling contract

    Posted: 18 Jun 2021 08:44 PM PDT

    I understand the basic principle of buying a put. I want the share price of ABC to lower than the strike price for which I bought the out.

    If i hold shares of ABC, i may choose to exercise or sell the contract, or I may also let it expire.

    My question is regarding buying a put but not holding the shares, and specifically selling the contract. Will I need to buy shares in order to sell the contract? Also, if I'm selling the contract, is it correct to say I'm closing the position and then not liable for anything that happens after that regarding movement in the price?

    Edit for clarification on selling: I would be buying a long put to open a position, and then selling that long put to close my position.

    submitted by /u/theycallmehq
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    How far will banks fall?

    Posted: 18 Jun 2021 10:52 AM PDT

    Major banks have been plummeting for weeks. Meanwhile, they all look relatively cheap on a p/e and p/b basis. How much further do you predict the industry will fall before making a comeback? Personally, I never would have imagined the selloff would get this bad. XLF fell through the 50d and is now heading to the 100d.

    submitted by /u/MiddleC5
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    What is the bear case for Corsair? Why is there a big short float for this stock?

    Posted: 18 Jun 2021 02:10 AM PDT

    I've gone through a few DDs, I've gone through financials https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRSR/financials?p=CRSR, a few interviews, and it seems this company has, in fact, pretty good financials and future, and it is a value play. However, the short float is quite huge at almost 22%. What am I missing? What is the bear case for Corsair? Did they have profits just because of the pandemic?

    submitted by /u/i_like_dolphins_
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