Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - June 04, 2021 Investing |
- Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - June 04, 2021
- Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.
- Biden bans US investment in Chinese military and tech surveillance sectors
- $ETSY bought Depop at a premium of 20x revenue. Is $POSH and $TDUP undervalued?
- I think AAPL is at its peak and starts to show bearish signs
- Lululemon earnings: Revenue jumps 88%
- Michael Burry's Inflation Positions
- PSTH press release explained in layman’s terms
- Bitcoin falls $3,000 after Musk tweets out a ‘broken heart’
- How to make sure you don’t get a surprise tax bill from wash trades?
- I have a question about the stock exchange..
- Abbvie and "creative accounting"
- Fastly's (FSLY) ability to convert and retain customers?
- How many ETF's with a 800$ budget for a year.
- Reports/metrics and other notables
- Learn investment from NORGES BANK
- is there valuation issue for OGN Organon stock?
- Rotations out of Crypto to Valuation/Growth stocks?
- Is CDProject a bargain even if they don't make ANY money with game development?
- Up to $30,000 from Konstruktor will be awarded to the winner of its international startup competition. Large investments from the US company Konstruktor will go to the Lemonade project Kazakhstan. A relatively young girl has won the startup contest.
- Large Cap Companies Pivoting to ESG
- Advantages of the copy trade. True or Fiction?
- Roth IRA excess contributions
| Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - June 04, 2021 Posted: 04 Jun 2021 02:01 AM PDT Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here! This thread is for:
Keep in mind that this subreddit, and this thread, is not an appropriate venue for questions that should be directed towards your broker's customer support or google. If you would like to ask a question about your personal situation or if you are asking for advice please keep these posts in the daily advice thread as that thread is more well suited for those questions. Any posts that should be comments in this thread will likely be removed. [link] [comments]  |
| Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Posted: 04 Jun 2021 02:00 AM PDT If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our side bar also has useful resources. Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  |
| Biden bans US investment in Chinese military and tech surveillance sectors Posted: 03 Jun 2021 09:08 PM PDT Joe Biden has signed an executive order that bans American entities from investing in dozens of Chinese companies with alleged ties to defense or surveillance technology sectors. In a move that his administration says will expand the scope of a legally flawed Trump-era order, the US treasury will enforce and update on a "rolling basis" the new ban list of about 59 companies. It also bars buying or selling publicly traded securities in target companies, and replaces an earlier list from the defense department, senior administration officials told reporters. Chips with everything: how one Taiwanese company drives the world economy Read more The order prevents US investment from supporting the Chinese military-industrial complex, as well as military, intelligence, and security research and development programs, Biden said in the order. "In addition, I find that the use of Chinese surveillance technology outside [China] and the development or use of Chinese surveillance technology to facilitate repression or serious human rights abuse constitute unusual and extraordinary threats," Biden said. A White House fact sheet on the order said the policy would take effect for those companies listed on 2 August. Major Chinese firms included on the previous defense department list were also placed on the updated list, including Aviation Industry Corp of China (AVIC), China Mobile Communications Group, China National Offshore Oil Corp (CNOOC), Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology, Huawei Technologies and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC). SMIC is key to China's national drive to boost its domestic chip sector. "We fully expect that in the months ahead … we'll be adding additional companies to the new executive order's restrictions," one of the senior officials said. A second official told reporters that the inclusion of Chinese surveillance technology companies expanded the scope of the Trump administration's initial order last year, which the White House argues was carelessly drafted, leaving it open to court challenges. The president has been reviewing a number of aspects of US policy toward China, and his administration had extended a deadline for implementation set by Donald Trump's order while it crafted its new policy framework. Apple uses more suppliers from China than Taiwan for first time, data shows Read more The move is part of Biden's broader series of steps to counter China, including reinforcing US alliances and pursuing large domestic investments to bolster American economic competitiveness, amid increasingly sour relations between the world's two most powerful countries. Biden's Indo-Pacific policy coordinator, Kurt Campbell, said last month that a period of engagement with China had come to an end and that the dominant paradigm in bilateral ties going forward would be one of competition. Senior officials said the treasury would give guidance later on what the scope of surveillance technology means, including whether companies are facilitating "repression or serious human rights abuses". "We really want to make sure that any future prohibitions are on legally solid ground. So, our first listings really reflect that," a second senior administration official said. Advertisement Investors would have time to "unwind" investments, a third official said. The new list provided few surprises for investors looking to see if they need to unload even more Chinese stocks and bonds. But some previously identified companies, such as Commercial Aircraft Corp of China (COMAC), which is spearheading Chinese efforts to compete with Boeing and Airbus, as well as two companies that had challenged the ban in court, Gowin Semiconductor Corp and Luokung Technology Corp, were not included. In May, a judge signed an order removing the designation on Chinese mobile phone maker Xiaomi, which was among the more high-profile Chinese technology companies that the Trump administration targeted for alleged ties to China's military. [link] [comments]  |
| $ETSY bought Depop at a premium of 20x revenue. Is $POSH and $TDUP undervalued? Posted: 03 Jun 2021 08:45 AM PDT Yesterday $ETSY announced it was purchasing Depop for $1.6B. In 2020 Depop revenue was $70M. Etsy CEO justified the purchase by stating that the second hand apparel industry will double to $65B in the next five years, citing a study made by Global Data. However, the other resale players are trading at much lower valuations considering their revenues. ThredUP ($TDUP) is expected to have $220M in revenue this year and is trading at 10x revenues with a market cap of $2.1B. Poshmarck ($POSH) is trading at 9x revenue with a market cap of $3.8B. Are this two companies undervalued or did $ETSY overpay for the Depop purchase? [link] [comments]  |
| I think AAPL is at its peak and starts to show bearish signs Posted: 03 Jun 2021 01:51 PM PDT Today is the first time I feel bearish about AAPL. It's a money making machine but stock goes higher because of future earning / innovation potential and not because of how successful the company in the past. The headwinds include: epic trial, chip shortage leading to reduced iPad shipment and reduced future revenue, and possibly reduced iPhone 13 shipment due to no breaking changes. In addition to all these, already highest market cap in the market and inflation fear looming the tech sector. Since AAPL is such a big part of many indexes, the downward of indexes will affect AAPL a lot. Also, three top car division executives just left AAPL and it does not seem AAPL has made much progress in the car business which could be next big growth area for AAPL. Among a dozen of professional analysts, only 2 are bearish and last week New Street's Pierre Ferragu gave a $90 price target EOY. No major banks have downgraded their outlook for AAPL and the consensus median is $160, average is $157.10, high is $185. What do you think about AAPL? [link] [comments]  |
| Lululemon earnings: Revenue jumps 88% Posted: 03 Jun 2021 09:15 PM PDT Lululemon sales surged 88 per cent in the first quarter of 2021 to $1.2 billion as bricks and mortar stores reopened, prompting the athletic apparel company to raise its financial outlook for the year. The Vancouver-based company, which reported earnings after markets closed on Thursday, said net sales hit $1.2 billion in the first quarter, up from $651 million during the same time last year. Lululemon also reported a net income of $145 million, or $1.11 per diluted share, compared to $29 million last year, or 22 cents per diluted share. "Our first quarter results reflected strength across all drivers of growth, fuelled by the continued expansion in our e-commerce business and a rebound in brick and mortar stores," chief executive Calvin McDonald said in a statement released after markets closed on Thursday. "Our strong performance across categories, channels and geographies demonstrates the momentum and strength of Lululemon as we shift into the new normal." Lululemon said traffic to its bricks and mortar stores increased significantly in the first quarter of the year, with 93 per cent of the company's retail stores open by the end of the three month period. The company also saw growth in both its women's and men's categories. Sales of women's products increased 23 per cent when compared to 2019 sales, and men's sales jumped 27 per cent compared to 2019. McDonald expects that momentum to continue, even as economies reopen and customers begin to resume normal routines. He said sales growth has continued, even as consumers shift their daily habits. "We have not seen a meaningful shift in our activewear categories through the first quarter," McDonald said. "The big piece of our business and sales are in athletic activewear. I think with that, it has embedded strength to not be purely trend driven or fashion driven... Overall growth is across almost every category and is very balanced across geographies." The stronger-than-expected results pushed Lululemon to raise its sales targets for the full fiscal year. The company now expects net revenue to be between $5.83 billion and $5.91 billion in 2021, up from its prior range of $5.55 billion to $5.65 billion. Lululemon also expects adjusted earnings to be between $6.73 and $6.86 per share, compared to a prior range of $6.30 to $6.45. The projections surpass what analysts had anticipated. According to IBES data from Refinitiv, analysts had expected net revenue of $5.68 billion and earnings of $6.48 per share. With files from Reuters Alicja Siekierska is a senior reporter at Yahoo Finance Canada. Follow her on Twitter @alicjawithaj. [link] [comments]  |
| Michael Burry's Inflation Positions Posted: 03 Jun 2021 01:10 PM PDT I have been doing a lot of research around inflation, and specifically holding Burry's position of TBT. It is a leveraged inverse fund of the 20 year US Treasury Bond. The thinking is if inflation is bad, interest rates will go up. My thinking is no way interest rates go up, even with inflation. The fed has no interest in raising rates because they know, and we all know, it will lead to a crash. Let's say inflation is way higher than they think it will be, something like 5%. I still say they wouldn't raise rates. What am I missing? [link] [comments]  |
| PSTH press release explained in layman’s terms Posted: 04 Jun 2021 12:32 AM PDT So I'm going to try to go over what the PSTH pr means as simply as possible, because it's an extremely complex deal and the market does not like complexity. So, here goes nothing: 1) PSTH and UMG are not one company now. Rather, PSTH is purchasing UMG shares when they begin trading in Europe, and then giving them to the PSTH shareholders. They will be worth about $14.75 each. This satisfies the SPAC conditions, and so PSTH does not need to rush to merge with an actual company. Rather, each PSTH holder will own 1 share of UMG at $14.75 and 1 share of PSTH at $5.25. This is just what the shares are "worth" and not what they will actually be trading at. I cannot tell you what they'll be trading at because I am not a psychic. 2) PSTH will continue to search for a company to merge with with about $1.5B left in their trust value. There is no time limit in this because their SPAC conditions were already satisfied. The deal could happen next week, or in 5 years, only time will tell. 3) Each PSTH shareholder will receive one right to purchase SPARC. These rights are exercisable at $20. The rights cannot be exercised until a merger has been completed, and they are gifted to the shareholder, so there is no opportunity cost of holding. This is important, because as SPARC is not a SPAC, there is not the traditional two year time frame to find a target. 4) For anyone unfamiliar with rights, they are familiar to options. If SPARC is trading at $30, the right is worth about $30-$20=$10. Because they cannot be exercised in this scenario until a merger is complete, you are risking no capital by waiting. SUMMARY: I may have missed something, so let me know if that is the case, or if anyone has any other questions. Don't be alarmed if PSTH is in the red tomorrow, as this is a very complex deal and the market does not like complexity. We just need to give it time to absorb the information. Please ignore any typos, I did not proofread this and I'm on mobile. [link] [comments]  |
| Bitcoin falls $3,000 after Musk tweets out a ‘broken heart’ Posted: 04 Jun 2021 01:13 AM PDT Bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency by market cap, tumbled down $3,000 this morning after Tesla CEO Elon Musk tweeted about the coin with a Linkin Park song reference. Bitcoin fell $2,000 in the minutes after the tweet, falling another $1,000 in the hours afterward. The asset traded at $39,000 in the wee hours but tumbled below $36,000 later. https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoin-falls-3000-after-musk-tweets-out-a-broken-heart/ [link] [comments]  |
| How to make sure you don’t get a surprise tax bill from wash trades? Posted: 04 Jun 2021 12:32 AM PDT To those of you who frequently trade the same stocks over and over, how do you make sure any losses are counted in your net earnings by year end? To avoid getting a nasty surprise when calculating how much taxes you owe, how do you make sure you are not violating wash sale rules? For example, there are a handful of stocks that I follow closely and day trade frequently. I jump in and out of trades of the same securities (or their equivalent options) daily. Should I just make sure there is a 30 day period where I avoid these frequently traded stocks altogether before the year ends? Is this enough to make sure my total net earnings are correctly counted? [link] [comments]  |
| I have a question about the stock exchange.. Posted: 04 Jun 2021 02:02 AM PDT Okay so if lots of buy orders on a stock happen, then the stock price goes up, right? And if lots of sell orders happen, then the stock price goes down. Correct me if i'm wrong. Okay so with that in mind, If I was a billionaire, couldnt I just forever increase my money? Buy a billion dollars worth of stock X, stock X increases in value, sell stock X 10 minutes later. Rinse and repeat. What is to stop the billionaires doing that? [link] [comments]  |
| Abbvie and "creative accounting" Posted: 04 Jun 2021 01:08 AM PDT All, It's been a couple of days since this made news but Abbvie is being investigated for tax related malpractices. https://www.thestreet.com/.amp/investing/abbvie-faces-pressure-from-us-senate-over-taxes Now, I'm not an expert on taxes or related laws, so my understanding on this matter is limited. From what I got, it seems that Abbvie hasn't been caught breaking any tax laws and hence there's only an investigation that has been launched and not a lawsuit. What the investigation will expose remains to be seen. What this be an appropriate understanding of what's happening? I am long on Abbvie and bought it when it was in mid-high double digits. So I have a fair bit of profit on this investment. My original strategy was to hold it for another 2 years and depending on whether they come up with an equivalent for Humira, hold it longer. Can someone shed some light on what can be the worst possible outcome of this investigation? Anything that we should watch out for before it's too late? Cheers! [link] [comments]  |
| Fastly's (FSLY) ability to convert and retain customers? Posted: 03 Jun 2021 12:25 PM PDT Does anyone have any insight on Fastly's presence in the developer world? I myself am a developer, but on a small scale, where services like Fastly haven't yet been relevant to me. In their SEC filings, they consistently cite the need to convert free customers to paid as one of the keys to their growth and success. Does anyone have any perspective on what differentiates Fastly from other cloud providers as far as this kind of edge Iaas? I believe that with edge services and the associated infrastructure, you would think that if a company is ahead, they will reasonably remain ahead for some time, but the whole cloud services industry is a little risky to me. I would think that the big Cloud providers would be able to eventually beat out products like Fastly with their own services, but I'm looking to find a little context in how far ahead Fastly is in their services, and how strongly opinionated the developer community is on them. I know I'm asking here in the investing subreddit, so I'm possibly just looking to be pointed in the direction of any resources/insight. [link] [comments]  |
| How many ETF's with a 800$ budget for a year. Posted: 04 Jun 2021 12:18 AM PDT Hello, this years has been my first one investing. I started DCA in crypto until I get a 300$ portfolio in the top 10 coins and a 100$ invested in the Invictus Top 20 coins fund. As for now and with the volatility of crypto I thought in carry on investing in something less volatile. I have a few ETF's in mind like VTI and VXUS. I have a salary and I'd be happy in starting with something like 70-80$ monthly. Do you think with this initial budget is worh it investing in these EFT? Or should I be focusing in just one? I accept any kind of suggestions. I'm 23yo, just graduated from university, and I live in Spain. Thank you very much. [link] [comments]  |
| Reports/metrics and other notables Posted: 04 Jun 2021 03:20 AM PDT I'm competent when when it comes to valuing and analyzing companies, and I'm a competent chartist as well. I invest in dividend stocks by using the wheel strategy to earn premium while allowing me to own stock at more attractive prices I have my basic strategy laid out but now I'm trying to take my investing knowledge to the next level. This brings me to my question; what reports/metrics should I be looking at when gauging economic trends? I know GDP, interest rates and job numbers are important but what else? [link] [comments]  |
| Learn investment from NORGES BANK Posted: 04 Jun 2021 03:08 AM PDT I have heard about NORGES BANK and how Norway invests profil from oil and gas on stocks to protect and create financial wealth for future generations. What they are doing is amazing, so I want to share their story with you to learn how they invest their money and what stocks they choose. Because they make a huge profile without risking the money of the Nowegians. Learn more here: https://www.nbim.no/ Portfolio https://whalewisdom.com/filer/norges-bank#tabholdings_tab_link I think they sold a lot of MSFT, AAPL and AMZN to buy ARRY and KNBE. [link] [comments]  |
| is there valuation issue for OGN Organon stock? Posted: 03 Jun 2021 11:15 PM PDT So OGN Organon just spin off today and its trading something like 4-5% of MRK market cap based on stock outstanding calculated as ($36*253 mil OGN shares / ($36*253 mil shares + $74*2.53bil MRK shares) which is seriously undervalued considering they're going to grab $6.52 billion estimated 2021 sales even if those sales are going down 20% and etc based on their 2020 annual sales decline. But the main issue is OGN is issuing $9bil cash payment to MRK which is like a cash dividend and if you subtract 9 billion from the $36*253 mil you end up with market cap of OGN at $340Mil ? is this math right? then OGN market cap should be worth about 0.15-0.2% of MRK market cap? which is seriously like fraud? am i misunderstanding something on the math or their sec filings? [link] [comments]  |
| Rotations out of Crypto to Valuation/Growth stocks? Posted: 04 Jun 2021 02:58 AM PDT This idea came from a yt video of an update of a stock I currently hold. The date the yt said was May 11th-13th. To follow along a 1hr chart of BTC and 1hr chart of PLTR could be use as an example only. On May 11th BTC begins to fall and some stocks hit lows and bounce. May 13th, Coinbase releases their ER and in the document it showed who controls the volume and surprise (not) insitutions. That day BTC drops and some stocks hit the low again or bounce. After May 13th, BTC has been in a downtrend with stocks like PLTR or Value/Growth stocks have been rebounding. Is it a good time to get in value/growth stocks or stick to more speculative assets? Is this correlation justify or did something else happen from May 11th-May13th with the 14th being a massive bounce turning certain stocks bullish? [link] [comments]  |
| Is CDProject a bargain even if they don't make ANY money with game development? Posted: 04 Jun 2021 02:39 AM PDT
I was quite surprised at the ratio considering how many games they distribute via GOG (personally, I am a satisfied GOG customer with hundreds of old games). The game development sector is obviously not going well. Trust with customers is lost, good engineers quit their job; I would not bet that it's possible to get back on the feet after Cyberpunk. But how much realistically is the GOG part worth? In case of a split or takeover of the whole company, Tencent, EA, Valve will definitely be bidding high. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 04 Jun 2021 02:15 AM PDT The first international award for "Best Startup of the Year" was given out by the American technology company Konstruktor on May 22nd in the city of Almaty, Kazakhstan. The winner of the KonstruktorStart competition is the Lemonade project by Ekaterina and Tamara Strelnikova, which will receive up to $30,000 in investments from the American technology company Konstruktor. The prize was presented by a special representative of the Konstruktor company, who arrived in Almaty from the United States to personally congratulate Ekaterina and Tamara on their well-deserved victory. The American technology company "Konstruktor" was founded in 1999 by Vlad Krishtop. Konstruktor's mission is to support creative and artistic initiatives of people from all over the world and to create the best conditions to develop them. Konstruktor is also a unique global community, a creative environment, with more than 1 million members from 190 countries. Konstruktor is part of a group of companies managed by the parent investment company Second Working District in California. Most recently, the primary interest of the company has been investments in the intellectual sphere as well as looking for innovative projects and assisting in their realization. With this goal in mind, Konstruktor and the Second Working District announced a competition for the best startup project called KonstruktorStart. The placing of competing projects and the application submission for the competition all took place on the Konstruktor website. More than 1000 different projects from all over the world were submitted for the competition. According to the KonstruktorStart jury, the selection process was difficult. However it was Ekaterina and Tamara Strelnikova from Kazakhstan and their startup project Lemonade that deservedly received first prize and up to $30,000 in investment to further develop their project with the help of Konstruktor. The Lemonade project (Leap Motion Navigation of Deaf) by Ekaterina and Tamara Strelnikova is a project to create an interactive simulator that will help children with hearing impairments, as well as their parents, to master both sign language and the sign alphabet. The project is innovative, high-tech, has practical application and solves a specific existing problem. At the same time, this is a solidarity project. Initially, the idea of creating a product that would facilitate communication and integration of children with hearing difficulties arose as a personal situation for the creators' family. However, the use of such a simulator can in fact improve the quality of life of more than 360 million people in the world who are deaf or hearing impaired. In this case, we can talk about the global nature of the project as well as its commercial appeal. Ekaterina Strelnikova was the project's ideological inspiration and her mother, Tamara, was the project's technical consultant. Despite her relatively young age, at 20 Ekaterina already teaches programming and has been developing her own projects since she was young. Her mother Tamara is a professional Python developer. Together, they were not only able to learn about Konstruktor, but they were also able to present an original project and create its successful presentation and promotion. Today Lemonade technology is already at the implementation stage and is being applied in practice at Boarding School 1 in Almaty. The presentation of first prize to the winners of the KonstruktorStart startup competition was an important event for Konstruktor itself, which plans to continue supporting enthusiasm, intelligence, professionalism and entrepreneurship. And from future information, Konstruktor will also continue to create a space for creativity, dreams and cooperation. [link] [comments]  |
| Large Cap Companies Pivoting to ESG Posted: 03 Jun 2021 01:27 PM PDT I have been listening to the thesis of large Oil companies investing in electric vehicle charging infrastructure. For over a decade, the energy sector has underperformed the broader market and are widely considered to be undervalued. I wanted to get the communities opinion on if they have any thoughts on large companies that may be able to increase their future revenue by investing in ESG related trends such as electric vehicle charging stations, meatless products, other clean products, etc. Are their any opportunities from large cap companies pivoting to some of these trends and produce benefits to shareholders? Thanks! [link] [comments]  |
| Advantages of the copy trade. True or Fiction? Posted: 03 Jun 2021 11:50 PM PDT Copying trading has a number of benefits. Key ones:
Mirror trading has become very popular with investors around the world. Mainly due to real efficiency. Followers were able to significantly improve their trading skills and generate substantial profits with minimal effort and expense. To start making money, beginners do not need to learn how to analyze the markets or interpret signals and indicators. Using the experience of other investors, they can learn trading strategies, get the first idea of the market. Copy trading platforms (example platform, Coinmatics) are designed for two categories of users:
Copy trading is a modern approach to investment and trading. It makes it possible to profit from trading even for those who are barely familiar with the market, inheriting the knowledge of its professional players. The latter, in turn, get the opportunity to additionally monetize their skills and receive dividends by helping others to trade. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 03 Jun 2021 11:06 PM PDT Hi All, For the year 2020 my wife and mine MAGI was above $206K. I had already contributed $6K to each of our accounts in January 2020. After doing some research and reading a few posts on r/tax I decided to recharacterize our 2020 Roth IRA contribution along with any gains to traditional IRA. Our total recharacterized amount was $14,575 so a profit of $2,575 on the initial $12K investment. This was calculated by our broker based on the amount they transferred to our traditional IRAs. After the initial recharacterization to Traditional IRA I then did the backdoor Roth IRA for the full amount ($14,575 total). My question is when I file the 2020 taxes do I enter the $6K each as traditional IRA contribution or Roth IRA contribution? And then do I show that I recharacterized those contributions? Do I pay taxes on $2,575 for 2020 taxes or 2021 taxes when I receive the 1099-R next year? I have read opposite statements on whether the contribution goes in as traditional or Roth for 2020 tax. Some forums also show that the recharacterization (and gains) won't be shown till 2021, some say that they need to be shown for 2020 taxes. I have already applied for extension ( and got approved) and paid the estimated taxes for 2020 tax year. Thanks for the help. [link] [comments]  |
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