Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - June 03, 2021 Investing |
- Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - June 03, 2021
- Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.
- The Fed to sell $13.7B in corporate bond ETFs this year
- NOK - Could this be the last chance?
- Fractional shares of GOOG vs GOOGL?
- Sell or hold IDEX and invest into Ford or SoFi or something else?
- A few notes about Corsair Gaming (CRSR) - The Rise of The Gamer
- To pay off my house or not to pay off my house?
- $XL could be a 500% mover in my opinion - Technical and Fundamentals - Higher Short Float than $AMC
- What would you do in case of 20% correction
- What are your winners for 2021?
- How are dividends on a covered call fund taxed?
- MRNA ATH, sustainable? Discussion
| Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - June 03, 2021 Posted: 03 Jun 2021 02:01 AM PDT Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here! This thread is for:
Keep in mind that this subreddit, and this thread, is not an appropriate venue for questions that should be directed towards your broker's customer support or google. If you would like to ask a question about your personal situation or if you are asking for advice please keep these posts in the daily advice thread as that thread is more well suited for those questions. Any posts that should be comments in this thread will likely be removed. [link] [comments]  |
| Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Posted: 03 Jun 2021 02:00 AM PDT If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our side bar also has useful resources. Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  |
| The Fed to sell $13.7B in corporate bond ETFs this year Posted: 02 Jun 2021 02:28 PM PDT
[link] [comments]  |
| NOK - Could this be the last chance? Posted: 03 Jun 2021 02:20 AM PDT Of all the meme stocks, NOK is probably the only one that hasn't yet completely taken off and there might still be an opportunity for those who missed on others. Besides, the fundamentals for NOK seem stronger than most of the other stocks. NOK is hovering around $5.5 at the moment - it could take off any time like BB did after lagging behind for a couple of days. I am holding around 7700 stocks that I bought at around $5.15. Waiting for it to go AMC :) ($70??). Nokia had a great Q4 2020. https://www.nokia.com/system/files/2021-02/nokia_results_2020_q4.pdf The Finnish telecom network firm reported earnings per share of EUR 0.26 ($0.31) for the full-year 2020 compared with EUR 0.22 ($0.26) for full-year 2019. For Q4, EPS stood at EUR 0.14 ($ 0.17) compared with EUR 0.15 ($0.18) in the same period last year. The company's October-December revenue declined 5% to EUR 6.57 billion ($7.89 billion) on a YoY basis, beating a consensus figure of EUR 6.42 billion ($7.71 billion), according to Refinitiv Eikon data reported by Reuters. PS: This is not an investment advice. Please do your own DD and invest responsibly, at your own risk. [link] [comments]  |
| Fractional shares of GOOG vs GOOGL? Posted: 02 Jun 2021 11:09 PM PDT Hello, so the price of the voting rights shares of google GOOGL closed yesterday lower than the general class shares GOOG... anyone know why? If I'm averaging into google can I just buy GOOGL on a platform like fidelity when it's list price is trading lower than GOOG and vice versa? I use fidelity and this is my plan. Please let me know if I am reading into the difference of these tickers too much. I cannot pay attention to every corporate action let alone make every vote lol so would that matter if my GOOGL votes go unheard from? [link] [comments]  |
| Sell or hold IDEX and invest into Ford or SoFi or something else? Posted: 02 Jun 2021 11:30 PM PDT I have 425 shares of IDEX, which I started buying when it was somewhere around $3.60 - $3.80 per share. It jumped up and I held only for it to come down. I've been buying more to average down and now I'm finally up (average 3.10). Any thoughts on dumping IDEX or holding? I know IDEX posted a profit at the end of Q1, but I'm not sure if I should let it ride or cash out and invest in something a bit more stable (or relatively known). I prefer long term investing, I don't dabble in options since I'd probably screw those up. I typically invest in ETFs and companies with good financials or strong future outlooks. Most of what I have now will be for my daughter when she's older (she's 7). I started too late for me, but not for her. I'm thinking about adding to my Ford stock or to SoFi which I bought last week before the merger. Thoughts on selling or holding IDEX? [link] [comments]  |
| A few notes about Corsair Gaming (CRSR) - The Rise of The Gamer Posted: 02 Jun 2021 02:59 PM PDT The video game industry has taken off since the pandemic and is expected to reach a value of ~$290 billion by 2026. How does this compare to the global box office industry? From 2019 to 2020 we saw revenues shift in the following: 2019 -> 2020 Global Box Office ~42 billion (all-time-record) -> ~11.5 billion Gaming Industry ~152 billion -> ~164 billion That's right, in 2019 (pre-pandemic) the gaming industry was already over 3.5x the size of the box office entertainment industry and over 14x in 2020*. Gaming's 2020 growth outperformed the growth of both movies and sports combined (source). There is a shift in the ecosystem from gaming for fun to becoming more of a social event, ie: hanging with friends while playing video games for the hobbyist gamer, and streaming for the professionals. Gaming, once thought to be an activity for the young, has proliferated through all age groups and demographics. In 2020, 64% of all American adults (214.4 million people) played video games (source) Check out evolution of streaming platforms since the Pandemic. Out of the top 3 competitors (Twitch, Youtube, Facebook) Twitch was the clear winner here with users streaming and revenues jumping significantly. This massive expansion of total addressable market (TAM) is most likely a one time occurence, but the gaming industry is still expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of roughly 11% moving forward. eSports Another beneficiary of the gaming industry boom, which is not talked about enough nor well-understood by many, are eSports. Essentially, eSports are gaming competitions that offer cash as prizes and draw YUGE crowds. The eSports industry alone is set to surpass ~1.1 billion in revenues in 2021, a 14% growth from 2020's ~950 million. To put things in perspective some of the top eSports events compete with the US Open Tennis and US Open Golf tournaments where the winner takes home millions of dollars. Enters Corsair Gaming (CRSR) What is Corsair Gaming (CRSR)? They are a designer and manufacturer of high-end gear for all things PC gaming. They offer four different segments of products, almost all of which have 5-star ratings on Amazon.
Corsair - Outlook With the rise of gaming comes new opportunity for CRSR to expand its sales. In 2021, the PC gaming market was estimated to be $45.5B with ~50% of all gamers using a PC to play video games (source). This creates a very opportune market for those who can provide value to the PC gamer. The target market who purchases peripherals are a passionate, well-researched group with access to many other brands. Therefore, only a well-liked (and popular) brand can succeed in this market (source). Thus, the market advantages large incumbents over smaller up-and-comers. Their brand value is also obvious in the premiums that their brand allows them to charge. Their gaming components and systems products, which they are currently the market leader, demands an average of ~40% premiums compared to their competitors! This means their products cost 40% more, on average, than their competitors and they are still out-selling them. Final Thoughts Given the rapid growth of the gaming industry boosted by the COVID-19 pandemic, CRSR is on track to capture a large segment of this growth and expand its business as a result. However, CRSR is not expected to have any massive shifts in its business nor do their growth strategies include any drastic changes to their current strategy. Corsair is a premium brand with solid market penetration. Although they may not experience the same explosive from 2019 to 2020, they are in a great position to remain a market leader in a fast-growing industry. [link] [comments]  |
| To pay off my house or not to pay off my house? Posted: 02 Jun 2021 11:41 PM PDT So, I'm looking at about $140k of capital gains tax owed this year thanks to gamestonk back in January. I decided to risk it and not do the estimated quarterly taxes, and pay the 4% or so fine when I file my taxes next year. But my main question is, my Mortgage lender (Freedom Mortgage)has been getting hella annoying with Refi offers. I already refi'd from 4.125% to 2.875% back in August of last year, but they're still calling and mailing me quite often telling me to refi again, even tho I tell em to stop. I'm just tired of dealing with them. I have about $199k left on my mortgage (started at $220k) $650k in my brokerage account. I am planning sell some of my mutual funds for about a $50k loss, which would offset my taxable income for the year, and use that to pay off my house. I know "it'll make more in the market" but FM has been pissing me off lately. So, am I bonkers for this? should I just put up with FM some more? is there something else I can do to offset my taxable income for this year? Sorry for all the words, just lookin for some help, thanks! [link] [comments]  |
| $XL could be a 500% mover in my opinion - Technical and Fundamentals - Higher Short Float than $AMC Posted: 03 Jun 2021 02:53 AM PDT solid technical set up, solid fundamentals and plenty of catalysts on their way. *Edit - To be clear this is not a MEME stock or short squeeze play. The company has enormous potential on a fundamental level and is extremely undervalued in my personal opinion. However the "potential" for a short squeeze should not be ignored in these trading conditions. I've been following this name for the last few weeks as we broke down 78% from the ATH put in December 2020. This was no doubt due SPACs getting hammered across the board and the short seller report from Muddy waters posting a lot of misleading information. Since then short sellers have been hammering the stock. It looks as thought the daily is now extremely lined for a breakout. The name has been trading lightly for weeks but I've been monitoring it closely and noticed larger buy orders stepping in the last few sessions. Basic Stats Technicals: 32 days of consolidation at lows. Break and strong hold of the 10ma for 11 trading sessions. Break and hold of the trend line on the 27th May. All dips into $6.50 aggressively bought for 10 trading sessions. Basic Stats Fundamentals: [link] [comments]  |
| What would you do in case of 20% correction Posted: 02 Jun 2021 11:04 PM PDT What if there is a 20% correction in major indexes later this year? What would your strategy be? Would you buy more for long term or would you simply ride it through without buying or selling anything? Which sector would you look to invest in if you have been waiting on the sidelines? Or would you wait for the market to correct more and possibly miss out yet again? Or just simply continue DCAing into index fund and buy more at lower price to make your average price bit better? [link] [comments]  |
| What are your winners for 2021? Posted: 02 Jun 2021 05:07 AM PDT What stocks or funds have been working well for you in 2021? I was heavy into ARK funds, green energy, and tech last year and have taken a beating so for in 2021. I'd love to hear what's working for you all. Like many of you, I was following the trends on Reddit and it was working well for a while, but since February my portfolio has been suffering. I made some changes to focus on building my dividend base but would love to hear what else is working for you all. [link] [comments]  |
| How are dividends on a covered call fund taxed? Posted: 02 Jun 2021 06:37 AM PDT Suppose you hold a covered call ETF that sells monthly CCs on some index. They return the premium from those CCs as a monthly dividend. You own the shares 1.5 years. How are the dividends taxed? Normally after owning an ETF for 6-mo to 1 year, dividends would be considered qualified, and be taxed as capital gains unless specifically prohibited by the IRS. Premiums from CCs are normally considered a capital gain, short term if it's an option with an expiration <1yr away, long term otherwise. So, how does it work? I've owned the ETF for >1 year, so one would think the dividends would be qualified, and taxed as long term capital gains, right? But, the underlying fund is only selling monthly CCs, so by definition what they return to you as premium should be considered a short term capital gain, right? I know there's more complexity here with things like return of capital, I'm just trying to understand the more basic scenario. [link] [comments]  |
| MRNA ATH, sustainable? Discussion Posted: 02 Jun 2021 08:11 AM PDT MRNA current price: $193, all time high as of right now. MRNA price on Jan 1, 6 mo ago: $104.47. MRNA price 15 mo ago (March 13 2020): ~$20. On this last date the MRNA market cap was 7.5 billion. These dates/prices are chosen very intentionally and paint a simple 0th order picture. Before the covid hype MRNA was valued at $20. The total market has grown ~40% since then (comparing total market index then and now), which, all else equal would suggest a price today for MRNA of $28 – not bad. But clearly we're not factoring in vaccine profits. Moderna was approved in the U.S. in mid December [1] and EU approval was expected soon after so vaccine profits were priced in by the Jan 1 date at $104.47. This price already seems too high though… depending on the sale the Moderna vaccine sells for $15 to $20 per dose [2]. They reached a deal to sell the U.S. 300 million and the EU 150 million doses, generously totaling $10 billion. A one time sale, yet their market cap has increased 10x from 7.5 bil to ~75 bil (read: overbought) [3]. The only way this makes ANY sense is if they're counting on a significant mass of the global population > 1 billion people ( note they have "plans to make 1.4 bil doses in 2022"[2]) to purchase booster shots every year. To their credit, they announced a deal with UNICEF this morning to be a "long term" supplier and supply 45 million vaccines to them in 2022, but this is a far cry from their required numbers (this deal is why MRNA is at ATH right now). Do we really think MRNA is going to be able to bring > 1 billion doses to market and find enough willing buyers? I don't think so, and I think the market reflects my uncertainty. First, Moderna's main competitor (Pfizer) has been shown to be more user friendly and have less side effects now that some 150 million have tried the two. [4,5] Furthermore, with Pfizer, J&J, Jensen and others the covid vaccine market is actually showing up to be fairly competitive. Lastly, and very importantly, a large fraction of the people who haven't YET got the vaccine never intend to: "nearly 40% of Americans say they will definitely not or probably not get the COVID-19 vaccine when it becomes available to them". [6] This information, combined with the fact that MRNA stock is severely overbought looks to me like a ticking time bomb. MRNA's boosted position seems incredibly fragile and has already tried to dump recently on three occasions (1 yr chart: dec 11, feb 19, may 4th ) And the reason it's going to dump is because the current bullish valuation requires MRNA to hold a practical monopoly over the vaccine market for years to come. The facts are unraveling and this is very much showing not to be the case. If they maintain their current market share at ~500 million vaccines per yr (unlikely as we will see), this translates to an adjusted market cap of 45 billion and about the $104 price we saw in January. So the base prediction given information here-to-now is that MRNA will dump to ~$110, a 40% decrease due the fact that the MRNA vaccine production monopoly was a pipe dream all along. And furthermore, it seems the covid treatment/prevention market may be open to even more competitors outside of vaccines. Discovered by Satoshi Omura who received a Nobel Prize for the work, Ivermectin is a cheap, not-under-patent, common drug that's been used for forty years as a common anti-parasitic. In Latin America, where the U.S. fancy MRNA tech is nary to be found, the people (and the market) have settled on a different solution. "The drug has been so in demand that in May health-care workers passed out some 350,000 doses to residents in northern Bolivia. That same month, the Peruvian police seized around 20,000 bottles of animal-grade ivermectin that was sold on the black market as a treatment for human coronavirus infections. And in July, a university in Peru announced that it would produce 30,000 doses to bolster the country's supply." [7] This article advocates caution because, at the time "data is scant". But that was many months ago (oct 2020), now the data is in. What started the rush was a demonstration that Ivermectin completely stopped covid19 replication in a petri dish [8], but would it do the same to covid in the human body? Well – what was the result of the mass buying in Peru? For the 24 peruvian states that implemented IVM treatment (and Lima), excess deaths quickly dropped by 75% after only 45 days. [9] "Extraneous causes of mortality reductions were ruled out." At higher doses Ivermectin could be 80 to 99% effective at preventing Covid19 if taken preemptively. One trial done in Argentina had ~1,200 healthcare workers, ~400 did not take Ivermectin and the other ~800 did. Of the ~400 people who did not take Ivermectin over half of them fell sick with covid. Of the 800 who did take it, 0 (ZERO!) fell ill. [10,11] And lastly, meta-analysis studies: "98% of the 52 studies to date report positive effects. Random effects meta-analysis for early treatment and pooled effects shows an 81% reduction, RR 0.19 [0.09-0.39], and prophylactic use shows 85% improvement, RR 0.15 [0.09-0.25]. Mortality results show 76% lower mortality, RR 0.24 [0.14-0.42] for all treatment delays, and 84% lower, RR 0.16 [0.04-0.63] for early treatment." [12,13] Remember when India was getting devastated by covid? Seems like yesterday. Where did all that news go? Well, there's this: many Indian states offered Ivermectin to every single adult…[14]. What about Africa? Didn't analysts predict Africa would be a huge covid disaster? Well… a lot of people in Africa actually already take regular doses of Ivermectin for parasitic diseases and these populations show much lower incidents and mortality from sars covid 19.. [15] How do you think the covid vaccine market will fare if it has to compete against an over the counter prophylaxis drugs? You do know that the vaccine Emergency Use Authorization for the MRNA vaccine is contingent upon there being no known alternatives to preventing or treating the disease, right? [16] That being said, they have applied for full authorization along with Pfizer and will probably get it so this specific point is mostly moot, but still relevant. So what do you guys think? Seems to me like MRNA is in a bubble and will pop, and the burst could be accentuated by an increasingly competitive market. Love to hear some people who disagree! I've removed all of the sources because something is on the subs source ban list, but after cross -referencing I can't figure out what. Anyways it's all public knowledge so you can bing for yourself or ask for source in comments. [link] [comments]  |
| You are subscribed to email updates from Lose money with friends!. To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now. | Email delivery powered by Google |
| Google, 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, CA 94043, United States | |
No comments:
Post a Comment