Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - June 19, 2021 Investing |
- Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - June 19, 2021
- Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.
- Three awesome quotes that will help you keep your cool when your stocks drop in value
- Inflation for beginners. A pile of info just for you!
- Reminder/clarification on our stance on Subreddit brigading
- Any good books for learning about central banks, monetary policies, interest rates and the financial system as whole?
- Honest questions from a young investor for the current climate involving stocks, inflation, crypto, etc
- A follow up to my Electronic Arts (EA) put position
- Passive Income Strategy: Wheel Strategy
- LZB (La-Z-Boy Inc.) Deep Dive - a great business that has recently been oversold over transient factors
- What happens when you buy to close an options contract?
- Unpopular Opinion: SCHD in a Roth IRA instead of the S&P 500?
- U.S. Innovation and Competition Act - which semis will receive funds?
- What's the best forum to discuss the advantages and disadvantages of different stockbrokers?
- Artworks as an Investment
- How should I prepare for rising interest rates?
- Mondays sell off and what to look for
- Investing in companies with market saturation?
- Do any Chinese VIE companies pay meaningful dividends?
- Where do I go to get the S&P 500 financials?
- Anyone have experience with IPOs? When is the statistically ideal time to sell?
- Bulls and the Bears for week of Jun-21
- Please tell me the difference between stock market and forex trading?
- Is there a way to assess the historical performance of Seeking Alpha stock recommendations?
- Thoughts on Micro-Shares in Racehorses?
| Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - June 19, 2021 Posted: 19 Jun 2021 02:01 AM PDT Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here! This thread is for:
Keep in mind that this subreddit, and this thread, is not an appropriate venue for questions that should be directed towards your broker's customer support or google. If you would like to ask a question about your personal situation or if you are asking for advice please keep these posts in the daily advice thread as that thread is more well suited for those questions. Any posts that should be comments in this thread will likely be removed. [link] [comments]  |
| Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Posted: 19 Jun 2021 02:00 AM PDT If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our side bar also has useful resources. Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  |
| Three awesome quotes that will help you keep your cool when your stocks drop in value Posted: 18 Jun 2021 11:43 PM PDT The hardest part of investing is controlling your emotions. If you don't know how to do that, then you might sell your stocks too early because you got scared off, or hesitate to buy - and then miss a huge run-up. That's especially important when your stocks go down in value and you start seeing a ton of red in your account.. Here are three quotes that really helped me get control of my mental game. Each of them covers a slightly different aspect. Read them, understand them, combine them in your mind, and your profits should get a lot better. :) First, this long but awesome quote from Warren Buffett, all the way back in his 1987 letter to shareholders: "Ben Graham, my friend and teacher, long ago described the mental attitude toward market fluctuations that I believe to be most conducive to investment success. He said that you should imagine market quotations as coming from a remarkably accommodating fellow named Mr. Market who is your partner in a private business. Without fail, Mr. Market appears daily and names a price at which he will either buy your interest or sell you his. Even though the business that the two of you own may have economic characteristics that are stable, Mr. Market's quotations will be anything but. For, sad to say, the poor fellow has incurable emotional problems. At times he feels euphoric and can see only the favorable factors affecting the business. When in that mood, he names a very high buy-sell price because he fears that you will snap up his interest and rob him of imminent gains. At other times he is depressed and can see nothing but trouble ahead for both the business and the world. On these occasions he will name a very low price, since he is terrified that you will unload your interest on him. Mr. Market has another endearing characteristic: He doesn't mind being ignored. If his quotation is uninteresting to you today, he will be back with a new one tomorrow. Transactions are strictly at your option. Under these conditions, the more manic-depressive his behavior, the better for you. But, like Cinderella at the ball, you must heed one warning or everything will turn into pumpkins and mice: Mr. Market is there to serve you, not to guide you. It is his pocketbook, not his wisdom, that you will find useful. If he shows up some day in a particularly foolish mood, you are free to ignore him or to take advantage of him, but it will be disastrous if you fall under his influence. Indeed, if you aren't certain that you understand and can value your business far better than Mr. Market, you don't belong in the game. As they say in poker, "If you've been in the game 30 minutes and you don't know who the patsy is, you're the patsy. An investor will succeed by coupling good business judgment with an ability to insulate his thoughts and behavior from the super-contagious emotions that swirl about the marketplace. In my own efforts to stay insulated, I have found it highly useful to keep Ben's Mr. Market concept firmly in mind." Second, the famous Litany Against Fear from Dune, one of the best sci-fi books of all time: "I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past, I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain." Last but not least, my personal favourite - by Covetous Shen from Diablo-3. :) "Hope... Do not look down, my friend. Even in the darkest of times, there is always hope. Hope for a better day, hope for a new dawn. Or just hope for a good breakfast. You start small, then see what you can get." Good luck - I hope this helped you. If you do end up making some extra cash off this advice, no need to thank me - just give some cash to your local charity. :) Or, if you're in Seattle or Toronto, let's hang out! The cider is on you hahaha [link] [comments]  |
| Inflation for beginners. A pile of info just for you! Posted: 19 Jun 2021 06:35 AM PDT I have seen a lot of questions about inflation and market prices the last couple of weeks. Let me post some info for those thinking about the topic. First, what are standard assets to buy during high-inflation periods? You have a couple of broad categories here. The simplest category is "stores of value," items that tend to retain value in the long run. These include: The next broad category is the collection of assets that "float" with inflation; these things tend to track whatever inflation is doing. These include: The last category is an asset that does well during inflation: Bonus category: Second how are these inflation-related assets doing now? I have bad news for you: Markets are forward-looking. The inflation hedges were being bought months ago. For myself, I did my largest personal inflation hedge last October: I refinanced my home mortgage to 2.85% and took out some equity. Before that I moved assets into a leveraged companies mutual fund, a commodity ETF, etc. Because other investors also did these things months ago, asset prices are high now. Some of these asset prices have also been dramatically affected by non-inflation factors. Inflation is one scenario trade everyone has been dealing with, but pandemic (covid) is another scenario trade, US political instability is another scenario trade, the rise of cryptocurrencies is another scenario trade, etc. As a result, there is a lot of noise in the market prices, and it can be hard to untangle the effects of, for instances, the pandemic scenario vs the inflation scenario (though one basically caused the other). Something like gold is more complicated than an inflation-only indicator. Track the price of gold and Bitcoin over the past two years. During the worst of the pandemic market downturn, gold held pretty well with bad news; Bitcoin tanked. That tells you something. (Both eventually rose) But there are other interesting factors. Gold is *not* rising recently as inflation fears have ramped up. Why? Well, looking at price history, gold was already being bought as a crisis hedge for pandemic. It was also likely being bought as a US political instability hedge. So the noise and signal in the price is hard to tease out for merely the inflation signal. Gold prices, and all asset prices lately, have been carrying multiple signals within their prices. The political stability signal may be noise to the inflation signal; all scenario signals will affect price. Each scenario has its own price pressures. Are asset prices high right now? Yes. We could be at the edge of a price cliff. Inflation could be tamed and prices could stabilize or drop. But we could also be at a cliff at the BASE of the cliff. Prices are high now, but if we enter into cycles of hyper-inflation, then today's prices may seem like a bargain in tomorrow's inflated dollars. There are people who predict both the end of inflation and much greater inflation to come. You'll have to decide for yourself which path seems more likely and/or problematic for your personal situation. So if asset prices are already high for inflation hedges, what should you do? First off, in this case and in every case be forward-thinking! If you're just starting to think about inflation now, you're chasing the markets. Markets have already been adjusting for inflation for a long time. That doesn't mean inflation won't get worse; it very well could. What it does mean is that prices are already up. We have seen big moves in real estate, such as the refinance industry like I did with my personal refi, and as many REITs and other firms have done with massive property buys. But just because we're at a high doesn't mean we're at a top. Prices could be at a top, prices could be at a relative low compared to coming inflation. Don't just think, "Inflation! Buy real estate!" or "Prices are high! Don't buy real estate!" Instead, think about where things are going over the next few months. Are markets properly efficient now or do will they be adjusting further in the coming months? Look forward. Second, do your homework! If you're an active investor (which presumably you are if you are in this forum), then it is incumbent upon you to do your research. Do due diligence. Think about possible future paths and have a plan for the major paths. Third, if we're in a period of high inflation, hopefully at some point we will return to a period of low inflation. Make your plan for that scenario NOW. You may not enact the plan now because we may experience more inflation before this cycle ends. But rather than being surprised by the end of inflation, have your trades ready to execute when you think the inflationary period is about to end. This is how I think about things; your mileage may vary. But in all cases do your homework and look a step or two ahead rather than just reacting to the day's news. If you act after the market is efficient, you lose on the trades. Be ready before the broader market moves. (edited to delete an duplicate line; artifact of copy/paste error in Reddit) [link] [comments]  |
| Reminder/clarification on our stance on Subreddit brigading Posted: 18 Jun 2021 10:59 AM PDT Hi all, Due to a recent surge in this sort of activity I'm putting out in the public a stance /r/investing has held for some time. This post will be linked in the rules for future clarification needs. Ever since the GME fiasco Reddit has been the site of an unprecedented amount of deliberate manipulation, bad faith interaction, and attempted pumping. Because we are one of the larger financial subreddits we have had to deal with this front on - and we have stuck to our longstanding policy regarding brigading. In the last two weeks we have banned over 300 users tied to at least 7 different subreddits for this behavior. I don't know what the fuck is going on but for whatever reason everyone forgot how to interact like an adult on Reddit in the last three months so here we are. This is an investment sub, we talk about boring shit like stocks, bonds, markets, whatever - none of us have to be dealing with this subredditdrama style nonsense. It's fucking childish. First, a bit of history for the new users This policy dates back to mid 2013, in the origional Crypto craze there was a concerted effort by bad actors to establish subreddits focused on their new altcoin or cryptocurrency, then organize a brigade of various investment subreddits. We reached out to the moderators of /r/cryptocurrency and they added our sub to their filters to prevent this sort of behavior from becoming an issue. The admins also removed a few users and crypto subs that were created for this purpose. Hedgefundaspirations, Crasymike, a few older investment mods, and I held a policy way back then (Even before I was a mod here, and prior to this account even) of permanently banning anyone who participated in this activity. The point here, is this is not a new policy, it's not reactive to any recent market events, and it's not going away. We are not concerned with whether something is accurate, inaccurate, etc, we are not taking a pro/con stance on any given security or investment - we are taking a definitive stance against such bad faith interaction as we always have since the very early days of this sub. The Policy The moment we determine that a brigade is occurring we will automatically and permanently ban anyone who participated in that brigade. No questions asked, and no appeals given outside of very rare circumstances. We will also remove the topic, lock comments, and potentially examine the idea of preventing any discussion on that topic for some time - regardless of if it may be a good faith question. What is a brigade? Any attempt to gather members of a different subreddit, especially one focused on a specific security, investment, or stance, to come to /r/investing and do any of the following:
In short: if you are on a subreddit that is focused on a specific security, investment, or stance and you see someone there reference a post on /r/investing (link, a screen shot, a comment saying "this is happening over at /r/investing, whatever), then you go post on /r/investing to express your stance you are getting a ban. If you spend all day in a subreddit focused on a given security, investment, or stance and you happen to "innocently" come across a post here on that subject you had better make absolutely sure nobody in the offending sub has mentioned /r/investing yet - because you're getting lumped in with brigaders if not. I want to be very transparent about this - we do not care what you posted. It could be a profane rant or a kind hearted link to a reputable source. We care that you are participating in a broad bad faith engagement on Reddit. After we lock/remove the thread we are able to see which users came from the offending sub very easily - and they will all get a ban. Just to be clear: This is not brigading: a post in /r/valueinvesting pointing out an interesting discussion on /r/investing, and users coming over to participate. We are happy to facilitate good faith interaction between various communities. This is brigading: a post on /r/AppleStockLovers about how someone on /r/investing talked shit about Apple stock. And you coming over here to just let that person know you disagree. I tend to think anyone who can use a computer should be smart enough to understand when they are acting in bad faith. So this shouldn't be a surprise to anyone, but here we are. Just to reiterate: This is not a change of policy, it is not reactive to anything that has happened in the post GME reddit environment. We have been operating with this policy since at least 2013, probably before. We're just seeing an absurd surge in this sort of shit so a public post was necessary. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 19 Jun 2021 01:42 AM PDT Hi, I am looking for a good read on monetary systems and policies, central banking, financial systems and banking, how money is created, how it is loaned to banking houses, how ordinary people get it, etc Any good suggestion? I´ve seen some recommendation for the following book but i´m not sure it will have what I'm looking for: · The End of Alchemy: Money, Banking, and the Future of the Global Economy Paperback – March 7, 2017 by Mervyn King (Author) · The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World Paperback – 4 July 2019 by Niall Ferguson (Author) · What Has Government Done to Our Money? Paperback – Large Print, May 27, 2015 by Murray N. Rothbard (Author) Thanks :) [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 19 Jun 2021 06:31 AM PDT Started investing in 2017. Made some good returns until 2019, then stopped investing directly into stocks and began to buy only index funds. Then came March 2020 and I bought a ton of stock in Wayfair, made some serious money. Also have been successful with crypto. Here today to get some insight. After doing some research on the current situation, I would swear we are due for a big fat correction in the stock market. Not a 2-5% correction. More like a 25-30% correction. P/E ratios of so many stocks are through the roof. Won't go into listing them, but there are stocks out there with P/E ratios of over 100 or 140 and those companies are not even making revenue, they are potential big companies come 5 years from now. It seems like we are in 2006 territory again (I am only 28 yo and I can remember what it was like in those times even regarding the markets because I was also a math/stock market nerd growing up). Tell me I am being naive and/or overly cautious, but the entire stock market right now has a P/E ratio of 35 (approx.). The stock market's average P/E ratio hovers around 15. To add to this, a lot of people my age are not working (the same) as pre-COVID. Not going to bash my generation, we do in fact work. However, my friends who worked full time jobs and drove for Uber/Lyft pre-COVID are just sticking to their one full time job now. I could list everything I am thinking about here - but I honestly see a big recession looming and in fact believe we may be just entering it. I do not want this to happen - but I believe it is inevitable. Personally, I am a believer in the tax and spend policies that lean more left wing. I do not think there is a way to make things better to be honest for the mid term. Is it not time for all of these stocks with insane P/E ratios to get down to where they belong? The reason I am on here like I said is to get insight on if I am overthinking everything. Also, how to play this? I would say the best thing to do is invest in crypto and it would also be wise to swing trade short term using bear ETFs. [link] [comments]  |
| A follow up to my Electronic Arts (EA) put position Posted: 18 Jun 2021 08:27 PM PDT About 1 and 1/2 weeks ago I posted DD explaining why I speculated that EA's share value was over priced and would likely see pull back. Over the past 4 days EA's share value has fallen 5.25% from its Monday high to its Friday close (though it's price had dropped further then this during the week) Wednesday I sold my position for a realized gain of +77% (my position was worth over 100% during the dip last week after the source code hack news came out) Thanks for all of the helpful feedback and constructive criticism on my original post, it was very insightful! [link] [comments]  |
| Passive Income Strategy: Wheel Strategy Posted: 18 Jun 2021 09:30 PM PDT A few months ago, I decided to sell cash secured puts on PLTR. Once I got assigned, I ended up having to own 200 shares of the stock. I switched over and started selling covered calls on it and have since then lowered my cost basis for my holdings. Since then I have generated around a 5% return on investment per month since I started executing this wheel strategy. I would highly recommend anyone holding a large amount of shares on any particular company to try implementing this strategy if you haven't already. You are able to collect premiums on a weekly basis which is a great source of passive income. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 18 Jun 2021 11:57 PM PDT Hello everyone, please see below my DD analysis on La-Z-Boy ($LZB). I would love to hear everyone's opinion. What Does La-Z-Boy Do? La-Z-Boy is one of the largest furniture manufactures in the United States. They are based in Monroe, Michigan, and they make home furniture, including upholstered recliners, sofas, stationary chairs, lift chairs, and sleeper sofas. La-Z-Boy furniture is sold in thousands of retail residential outlets in the United States and Canada and is manufactured and distributed under license in other countries including the United Kingdom, Australia, Germany, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, New Zealand, Turkey, and South Africa. La-Z-Boy holds US and international patents on more than 200 different styles and mechanisms. They employ approximately 9400 workers at this time. La-Z-Boy Incorporated is divided into three reportable operating segments: the Upholstery Group, the Casegoods Group, and the Retail Group. The Upholstery Group primarily manufactures and sells upholstered furniture to furniture retailers and proprietary stores. This includes recliners and motion furniture, sofas, lift chairs, loveseats, chairs, ottomans, and sleeper sofas. The Casegoods Group primarily sells manufactured or imported wood furniture to furniture retailers, including tables, chairs, entertainment centers, headboards, dressers, accent pieces, and some coordinated upholstered furniture. The Retail Group consists of 70 company-owned stores in the US. The Retail Group sells mainly upholstered furniture to end consumers through the retail network. In July 2018 La-Z-Boy also acquired online furniture company Joybird for an undisclosed amount. The bull case
Their CEO noted the following in the earnings call (also covered at Forbes) -
https://www.streetinsider.com/dividend_history.php?q=lzb The Bear Case
Financials & Valuation LZB balance sheet can be viewed at https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/LZB/balance-sheet?p=LZB for reference to what I state below.
Based on all this I believe LZB is a great business and iconic brand that is currently trading well below fair value. I believe this represents a great investment opportunity. TL;DR: LZB stock faced a selloff this week because management warned that record high raw material prices would affect their bottom line in the short term. Management also noted that these issues will be offset by previously announced pricing actions as the company works through its immense backlog in the back half of the year. Considering this, I believe the stock is oversold as it is considered as much as 33% undervalued as per Nasdaq.com at current prices which represents a great investment opportunity. [link] [comments]  |
| What happens when you buy to close an options contract? Posted: 18 Jun 2021 11:58 PM PDT Suppose you sold a call or put option and now you have -1 contracts and pocketed the premium. Right before expiry you buy to close the position instead of letting the contract expire. When you buy to close, what happens to your contract? You're buying a long option, but doesn't the option you wrote still exist? The owner of that call or put still has the right to exercise. The contract for him doesn't just suddenly disappear because you closed. Could you still get assigned if you sold and closed the same contract at a later date, even though the two option positions technically cancel out? Who is on the hook if the one who now owns the contract you sold decides to exercise? [link] [comments]  |
| Unpopular Opinion: SCHD in a Roth IRA instead of the S&P 500? Posted: 19 Jun 2021 11:01 AM PDT Hi everyone, I have been doing some quick DD and was wondering what your thoughts are on SCHD and VOO? I've been rethinking my investing strategy for my Roth IRA to capitalize on its tax advantages and was considering SCHD over VOO because it seems that SCHD is practically VOO but with a higher dividend yield (SCHD = 2.72% vs. VOO = 1.38%) and a higher dividend growth rate. I'm also very partial to not selling the principal of my investments but instead using its distributions to live off of, so that I don't affect the future returns of my portfolio if I were to ever withdraw from it during an economic downturn while in retirement. The numbers above are from Seeking Alpha: https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SCHD/dividends/scorecard https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VOO/dividends/scorecard The effect of the ratios are practically the same on the returns over the long-term. You can play with the annual rate of return, but using those from portfolio visualizer, there is a difference of a little over $120k/year at the end of 40 years of investing. Expense Ratios:
The returns of the portfolio are virtually the same, but the income that each fund produces is substantially different, even in market downturns. As you can see from the link above, with dividends reinvested, the income from SCHD is higher AND the capital gains are aligned strongly with the S&P's I understand that the fund only goes back 10 years, so it in no way has the tried-and-true confidence of the historical performance of the S&P. But since, "Historically, dividends contribute approximately a third of equity return", wouldn't it be a "wiser/better" decision to invest in a quality ETF like SCHD instead of VOO for the long-term? You get a much higher passive income stream than the S&P, that grows over time, as well as a mirrored capital gain. Am I missing something critical that would make sense to hold the S&P long-term over a dividend ETF? What do you think? [link] [comments]  |
| U.S. Innovation and Competition Act - which semis will receive funds? Posted: 19 Jun 2021 10:42 AM PDT Which semiconductor companies will be most likely to receive funds after the bill is signed into law? Here are my thoughts and assumptions. Please correct any mistakes. Disclaimer: I own positions in Intel, Micron, and Applied Materials. My understanding is that the bill is largely meant to support and consolidate semiconductor manufacturing and semi cap manufacturing in the U.S. Thus, U.S.-based companies with facilities in the U.S. and that want to develop their semiconductor manufacturing capabilities in the U.S. will be the most likely to receive funding from this law as well as future support from the U.S. government which is aligned with rare bipartisanship to address and neutralize the threat of China's growing global technological dominance. Those companies will have a competitive advantage in the marketplace after receiving these funds, regardless of other fundamental or technical factors. However, the funds will come in the form of grants and tax credits. My understanding, and here's where I'm making big assumptions, is that companies must apply to receive the funds and that this is an involved and competitive process. The law won't be signed until toward the end of this year at the earliest. Then, companies will apply for grants to fund projects to build fabs, improve supply chains, etc. INTC and MU seem like clear favorites to receive funds because they're U.S.-based IDMs with facilities primarily in the U.S., and they're often included in news stories related to the bill. TSM and Samsung are outside the U.S., though that doesn't mean they couldn't hypothetically receive funds to build a fab in the U.S. But if grants are competitive, then how likely would TSM or Samsung be to receive funds to build a new fab if they were competing with Intel or MU for the same funding, based purely on the intent of the law being to support U.S.-based semiconductor business? AMAT also seems like a favorite to receive funds even though ASML has a monopoly on the most advanced semi cap equipment. ASML is based in the Netherlands and only has two facilities in the U.S. Also, I speculate that AMAT could use funds from the law to put toward R&D to compete with ASML, but my knowledge in that area is lacking. It won't be until next year before companies can even start applying for funds. There probably won't be any winners for projects until at least a year from now. Catalysts:
This isn't advice. I'm not a financial advisor. [link] [comments]  |
| What's the best forum to discuss the advantages and disadvantages of different stockbrokers? Posted: 19 Jun 2021 06:46 AM PDT Discussions such as how knowledgeable their CSR's are, how long they take to respond to your questions, what restrictions they have on transferring money, such as putting it on hold, etc., how easy it is to download a summary of your account, how often their website goes down or becomes temporarily unavailable. Lots of minor issues too, that might or might not be worth discussion, such as whether their online summary of your account or history is cluttered with extraneous information that makes it harder to get screenshots because it takes more screens. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 19 Jun 2021 10:23 AM PDT Hello! Recently started my investing journey and am doing as much research as I can. I like the idea of being invested in several asset classes and the last few days I've been going around the idea of investing in art. Since I'm no millionaire and can't afford to buy expensive artworks, I discovered that there's several platforms that offer investing in shares of artworks. My problem with this is that all the platforms either don't seem developed enough (meaning their website looks pretty basic or they don't yet have enough clients) or they have extremely high fees compared to any stock/crypto/commodities exchange. Do any of you invest in art? Does anyone have any experience in any of those platforms offering shares of artworks? Any feedback would be appreciated! [link] [comments]  |
| How should I prepare for rising interest rates? Posted: 18 Jun 2021 11:21 AM PDT I've only been investing for less than a year, so I've only know an economy with low interest rates. What are some things I should be doing to prepare for the 2022-2023 interest rates in terms of my portfolios? I have a retirement account that I put most of my savings in and a small investing account where I play around to try to gain experience. As a 23 year old I'd say I'm about ~80% in stocks and 20% bonds/ETFs. Is it more beneficial to move out of bonds and into stocks? Also what markets seem to handle high interest better? Cheers [link] [comments]  |
| Mondays sell off and what to look for Posted: 19 Jun 2021 09:41 AM PDT Since some people have started to ask me my picks. Per the stock my picks are what they are but let me share my overall sentiment. Jim Cramer believes the sell off isn't done. So we have two choices. Ride the down elevator all the way down and back up. Or act. I will wait til end of Monday then probably act on going full cash. Here's why and here is why I'm not pulling the trigger Monday morning. We are in a downtrend. But the downtrend isn't equal. Banks etc keep taking hits but keep trading flat after they open lower. That just says weakness in the selloff. Other stocks are just now coming off all time highs while others like banks are near January prices erasing 6 months of gains. So all stocks won't behave equally so your position placement matters. The Fed. The pieces of filth they are. Can come out any day and just say "just kidding didn't mean what we said" and this whole thing will be over. All of that wraps up into a general sentiment. For each stock's growing downtrend that sentiment will look like higher volume following trend or lower volume hitting a new low. That's going to be my barometer for if to go cash Monday. Since I'm already pretty committed. There's nothing wrong with "buying and holding" through a dip but personally I just can't stomach that anymore. It's the reason it takes 30 years go retire instead of 10. So my 2cents is it is too early to throw in the towel because so much damage has already happened that the sell off could be testing a bottom on Monday in which case you DO NOT want to sell. But if it's trending on higher volume then gtfo. [link] [comments]  |
| Investing in companies with market saturation? Posted: 19 Jun 2021 01:03 AM PDT I'm interested to know what people think about buying into companies like McDonald's, Coca Cola, Walmart etc. These are companies that are massive all over the world and used daily by millions of people. Coke and McDonald's are possibly the two most recognised companies on the face of the Earth. They aren't companies that I would expect to grow massively over time, but I can see them still steadily growing as they slowly aim to corner any remaining markets they haven't yet tackled. I guess I'm just wondering if they're worth looking into, or if it simply makes more sense to just put the same money into VTI or something like that. Thank you [link] [comments]  |
| Do any Chinese VIE companies pay meaningful dividends? Posted: 19 Jun 2021 04:34 AM PDT I was looking for Chinese stocks that would pay decent dividends (at least 2-3%), however, I cannot find any? I am wondering if the VIE structure has anything to do with that. If we buy BABA, NIO, TCEHY or whatever else, we don't get any actual ownership. AFAIK VIE works like the following. Chinese laws forbid foreigners from owning Chinese stocks. So the Chinese stock you buy actually only grants you a stake in some Cayman Islands-registered entity. These entities are under contracts to receive some profits from the Chinese assets but not to actually own them. This is how BABA, NIO, XPEV or whatever else Chinese works like. Besides, VIE technically is illegal but China has been silent on that.(more on the VIE structure https://globescancapital.com/chinese-vie-structure-wall-street-continues-to-ignore-the-risks/) Aside from all the political risks, I am wondering - if a Chinese company no longer needs to raise capital in the West, why would it keep the obligation to share profits with the shareholders? If the VIE structure is not enforceable, the shareholders of the Cayman Island companies (again: BABA, XPEV, NIO) could end up with empty bags while the profits would go to CEO/board/Chinese shareholders. Also given that shareholders are not entitled to any ACTUAL entity in the Chinese company, the board/CEO can decide to simply transfer ownership of the company's assets to somewhere else thus leaving shareholders emptyhanded and thus NIO, BABA and whatever else could easily go to 0 while the actual companies may thrive. And this can harm not only retail. There was this dispute between Yahoo and Alibaba when Jack Ma transfered ownership of Alipay from the group to an entity controlled by himself and didn't even inform other shareholders.(https://www.ft.com/content/40a66dd2-b9ec-11e0-8171-00144feabdc0) So if the Chinese companies trading under VIE structure don't pay out their profits (technically the sole reason for the VIE structure), it looks like they should be bought only for speculation purposes. Are there any Chinese well established companies that share their profits and pay decent dividends to their VIE shareholders? [link] [comments]  |
| Where do I go to get the S&P 500 financials? Posted: 19 Jun 2021 09:42 AM PDT I'll often see earnings or book value per share quoted, so I know there must be some central body that tracks this information, but I can't seem to find anything with a google search. I want an income statement, balance sheet and cash flow statement of the s&p as a whole, appropriately balanced according to the current allocations. Is this seriously not available anywhere, or am I just not looking hard enough? [link] [comments]  |
| Anyone have experience with IPOs? When is the statistically ideal time to sell? Posted: 18 Jun 2021 10:51 AM PDT I have the opportunity to get involved with an IPO in the coming weeks for a company that is going public. I this case, it is what they are calling a Reserved Share Program. My understanding is that generally, IPOs are only for large investors but this is a special program where users of the company's product(s) are afforded the opportunity to get in for a much smaller amount of initial investment than would usually be needed for an IPO. Think of the program that Uber and Lyft had for their drivers. (Not sure if it's relevant, but the company in question is Doximity, a social media platform for physicians and limited other healthcare professionals. An estimated 10k-20k of its most active users were invited to participate with a minimum investment of ~$100 and a max of ~$5000.) I've read the preliminary prospectus in pretty good detail and looked at the financials, and it seems to be a pretty strong company that is already profitable and looking to expand. Of course, as anyone who is a physician knows, any salesman that screams "I have an investment opportunity for physicians only!" is just looking for suckers, but the way Doximity reached out to us really seemed more of a "Here's something we'd like to do for you for being among our first users to say thanks. No pressure, and we won't be offended if you say no." I'm approaching this as a gamble moreso than an exercise in investing, but the opportunity to grow a small chunk of change literally overnight is quite appealing. The rest of this post is all theoretical discussion based on previous trends. This is a great time for the disclaimers for both "past results do not guarantee future performance" and "don't try to time the market." Once again, I am not approaching this as investing. but more of an exercise in what I should do, statistically speaking. (I would also argue that I'm not timing the market, just a single stock.) My research shows that statistically speaking, a stock "pops" on average 20-40% on the first day of trading after an IPO. Tech IPOs tend to fare a bit better. Obviously there are risks as with every investment and it seems that about 10-20% either don't make significant gains on the first day or actually lose value. However, my research does not show at what point do things "peak" during all of this volatility. For example: At 6pm, the night before the IPO (day 0), I have to decide how much shares I want at the offering price. (I have no lockup period, some employees and institutional investors do is my understanding ranging from anything from 3 days to ~1 month when the earnings report comes out). Statistically speaking, does the "pop" happen as soon as the market opens on Day 1? Sometime during the day? A day or two after? Once again, caveats abound (if IPOs were guaranteed to make money, everyone and their brother would be getting in on it!), but this seems like something I'd like to get involved in to learn a bit, for the novelty of the situation, and the chance to make a quick buck in a company I believe in and who has made my professional lief a bit easier in more ways than one. (I plan on keeping at least 1 share symbolically even if I do end up selling off everything else). [link] [comments]  |
| Bulls and the Bears for week of Jun-21 Posted: 18 Jun 2021 04:52 PM PDT Check back for edited updates as I analyze more. This is my opinion based on hard lessons learned while reading charts. Take with a grain of salt my opinions, feel free to watch them and test them as the next week unfolds.This is a situation as the markets close for week of Jun-14.This is my bulls and bears going into Monday June 21. AAPL - Weak-Bear: with how it is trending it looks like AAPL finished in a trading range. If bearish signals continue into next week expect a break-out down in price. ABBV - weakening bear but also very weak bull signal. Tie goes to bear. Starting to trade flat. Maybe would have traded up Monday but I expect it to be down due to market sentiment. ABBV 45min chart - strong bear little change. BAC - Weak Bull. See JPM. Looks weaker than JPM but banks are trending together. It entered bull territory today but at great cost. Almost overbought on the RSI (67.25) just for slight MACD bull-signals (+0.02) CVX - See XOM (about the same analysis). DIS - Weakly Bearish maybe bullish. I did a trendline analysis on this one because it's uniquely problematic. It has a sharp downtrend beginning about June 15 that confuses you at first glance. June 17 and 18 both branch above this trendline. If you move the opening-down to the same price as the previous day you can see that the price is trading almost flat off the trend line. That is actually a strong reversal indicator. If DIS is weakly bearish it may suffer with market downturn. However, it may flat line rather than fall and seems poised for a reversal. JPM - Weak Bear trending toward Bull. Be hesitant. Signs of reversal include bear weakening to bull and pulling away from trend on low volume, plus bursts of increasing volume day overall. Tough call, it's basically evenly matched bear-to-bull but that's an improvement from last 2 weeks. MSFT - Very weak bull possibly crossed into bear territory. No trend yet. I say "tie goes to the bears" and MSFT's bulls today tied with the bears. Because of this MSFT is probably slipping into hibernation for early in the next week. TSLA - Midsized-Bear: TSLA entered bear signals today. Historically TSLA has 3-4 days of bear for 1-2 days of bull. TSLA price finished strong but this is a weak bull run testing resistance. It will likely fall Monday and continue to fall as long as the bearish signal remains. VZ - Weak bull. It's been in the weak bear territory where tie goes to the bear so the price has slumped slowly each day. But the bear was weakening and has basically turned into a weak bull today. XOM - Strong Bear. Steep down trend with price matching trend on low volume to confirm the trend. [link] [comments]  |
| Please tell me the difference between stock market and forex trading? Posted: 18 Jun 2021 11:41 PM PDT Hey can anyone tell me, total value of forex trading is 2000 trillions, but the wealth of this whole world is around 340 trillions, I don't get it, can anyone explain? Recently studying different types of market and found that global stock market wealth is approx 90 trillions dollars, and global wealth is just more than 360 trillions dollars, but what shocked me is forex trading Market wealth is more than 2 quadrillions (2000 trillions), can anyone explain how?, Who put money into it how it exceeding global wealth? And what are the use of FX trading and how different it is from normal stock market And current crypto market is around 2 trillions dollars and it is expected to grow more in the future But I don't get the Idea of forex market Thanks [link] [comments]  |
| Is there a way to assess the historical performance of Seeking Alpha stock recommendations? Posted: 18 Jun 2021 09:08 AM PDT I have been looking at SeekingAlpha's list of Top Growth stocks which is ranked based on their Quant and other wallstreet ratings. It changes everyday and it seems that lot of stocks(not all) which haven't done well over last few days or weeks are quickly moved down the ranks and eventually dropped. This obviously makes the list's performance look more impressive than it really is. So my question is that is there a way to assess or backtest returns on Seeking Alpha' historical stock recommendations? It would be great if anyone has already done the analysis but if there is an archive of that data I can run the analysis. I looked around on the website but I don't think they have the historical list of recommendations available. [link] [comments]  |
| Thoughts on Micro-Shares in Racehorses? Posted: 18 Jun 2021 09:20 PM PDT There are several sites that I have been checking out, including Myracehorse.com and Wasabi Ventures Stables, that seem legit and have active communities. I'm thinking micro-shares could be an interesting/fun alternative investment, but I am wondering if anyone on this subreddit has dabbled with them before? Would like to know if anyone has been able to turn a profit doing this. [link] [comments]  |
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