Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - May 30, 2021 Investing |
- Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - May 30, 2021
- Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.
- ARKK sells leverage not alpha and they overcharge
- Qualcomm ($QCOM) - what’s the bear case?
- Eligibility for Proxy Vote - how does it work?
- This is (most likely) why Michael Burry is shorting Tesla!
- Which REIT should I add to my portfolio?
- Intel stock falls, should I double down or sell
- Could AI help find "hidden gems" (overlooked stocks or ETFs)?
- Contribute to Roth IRA or Individual Brokerage
- Diversification - need help - discussion
- Using an analysis service to guide early investing (Zacks)
- Discovery WarnerMedia Merger IRR Test
- Book recommendations to take investing knowledge to the next level?
- UONE Possible 2843% Gain for June $500+ Million Casino
- VTI vs VWRP? Long term hold
- How to calculate total holdings of my etfs?
- UK - ETFs for US markets that come under ISA?
| Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - May 30, 2021 Posted: 30 May 2021 02:01 AM PDT Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here! This thread is for:
Keep in mind that this subreddit, and this thread, is not an appropriate venue for questions that should be directed towards your broker's customer support or google. If you would like to ask a question about your personal situation or if you are asking for advice please keep these posts in the daily advice thread as that thread is more well suited for those questions. Any posts that should be comments in this thread will likely be removed. [link] [comments]  |
| Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Posted: 30 May 2021 02:00 AM PDT If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our side bar also has useful resources. Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  |
| ARKK sells leverage not alpha and they overcharge Posted: 29 May 2021 01:03 PM PDT Wanted to get all your thoughts on this, I'm just kind of thinking out loud and would welcome a different opinion! Looking at ARKK annual percentile returns (via Morningstar, performance percentile vs peers): 2015: 75th 2016: 98th 2017: 1st 2018: 17th 2019: 57th 2020: 1st 2021: 100th ARKK is selling themselves as alpha generators, but they don't consistently capture alpha. In fact, These kind of swings implies that the fund has excessive risk not excessive skill. Market does well, fund does great; market does poorly, fund tanks. Leverage is totally fine but it's cheap, especially these days. if they are just loading up on volatility then it's not worth the management fee. You can get that on your own. Probably a lot of funds fall into this bucket…. [link] [comments]  |
| Qualcomm ($QCOM) - what’s the bear case? Posted: 29 May 2021 09:33 AM PDT I'm big into Qualcomm ($QCOM). I think they're massively undervalued for their currents prospects, but also for their continued growth potential and their upcoming superiority in the 5G market (I'll leave it at that so this doesn't get mistaken for a pump post). Basically, I know the bull case. I am long shares and I have LEAPs. But hoping someone can give me the bear case just so I know I'm not missing anything. Any and all thoughts welcome. Thank you in advance. [link] [comments]  |
| Eligibility for Proxy Vote - how does it work? Posted: 30 May 2021 02:58 AM PDT Hi all! A company I invested in - Citius Pharma - is going through a proxy vote for increasing the number of authorized shares. Now it seems that all of our community from the US and from Canada have received the proxy package and material or at least a notification of their broker. However myself and others from outside that region, have not. However, the sec filing clearly reads the proposal needs minimum 50% of the total share pool to vote in favor for the proposal to pass. This seems odd because the shareholders outside the jurisdiction of US/Canada do not seem to be included in the vote. But our shares are still considered in the total share pool. Am I understanding this entirely wrong, or is this process a little flawed? Thanks a bunch for any clarification you can give :) [link] [comments]  |
| This is (most likely) why Michael Burry is shorting Tesla! Posted: 30 May 2021 04:49 AM PDT If you've ever tried to do a fundamental analysis of a company, you've had to look at their numbers. But if you only pay attention to their revenue, market share, P/E ratio and so on, you're missing on a very important piece of information : the story behind those numbers. A sentence that I like to say is this :
It's pretty inspired by Aswath Damodaran's keynote where he talks about the valuation of a company. And this sentence is a pretty good summary of it (although I highly recommend you to watch it). Since valuing a company is looking at the numbers and coming up with a story from them, the valuation depends on your experiences, personality, culture, creativity and emotions that day. Your valuation of a company can be vastly different from mine because the CEO reminds you of someone that really succeeded and it made you much more optimistic as a result. And this is fine. Better, it's actually good! Now if you have to tell a story and the numbers are your constraints, then the less numbers you have (basically the younger the company is), the more freedom you have and therefore our stories might differ even more. In the case of a startup for example, if you have a very pessimistic view of the company, you might say that the product sucks and they will never sell that shit, but if you're the CEO and a high valuation is in your best interest, then you might say that it will change the world or something. And that's what they do. But then, as your company matures and as "it gets more numbers" (more earning reports to look at, more news about your company, and overall more stability), the more boring your story will become but more importantly, the less optimistic it will be. If your company is already 5 years old and all you've done is a social media app, you will have a harder time saying that you're going to change the world. Somehow, by an ungodly miracle, Elon Musk managed to extend that first stage to a point never seen before. Tesla wasn't just a car company! Oh no no no no! It was a software company mixed with a battery company with a supercharger network that happened to be selling cars. That idea that it's not just a car company spread everywhere and Tesla's valuation was no longer constrained by the expectations of a classic car manufacturer. And it didn't have that much historical data to give a more realistic outlook of the company. And it was in a new untapped market. This is hard to make a good valuation on a new market that has yet to be fully mature. Also, Elon Musk's behavior contributed immensely to this insane valuation. He essentially became a memelord and this rallied a lot of retail investors to his cause. I talked about it in another post but essentially, Tesla's valuation is based mostly by the hype and the memes. So at the end of the day, the story that we had for a long time was that Tesla is a good innovative company, the first mover in a exponentially growing market (EVs) and is run by a bold (and sometimes a little bit crazy) CEO. But now that we have more numbers, that the company and the market it's in mature, the story becomes : good company, encouraging fundamentals but a lot of competition is comming to get a piece of that EV space. Which is a bit less optimistic than before, isn't it? Also, being the first mover in a new market has very rarely been good for the company itself. The first movers usually pave the way. Then, other companies take their idea and improve on it thanks to their own expertise. This makes their products much better and you become the one that's lagging behind. And there are countless examples of that : Yahoo, MySpace, AOL, and a lot of startups that you don't even know because their ideas have been taken by big corporations that have the ressources to crush any competition. So a lot of competition is comming and historically, being the first is not very good, that says a lot about Tesla's future as company but what about its valuation? Well, as Tesla becomes older (or more mature), the expectations become more realistic but also its "meme power" goes down, just like any other meme. And that leads to a much lower valuation. And the more, the meme goes down, the more Elon Musk's attempts at reviving the meme goes from the cool hip dude to the "How do you do, fellow kids" guy. You can already see this happening with Bitcoin that became this old cryptocurrency that is now for institutions so younger people no longer care for it. Now, Dogecoin is the new cool kid in the block. Same thing with Gamestop and AMC. The same way Bitcoin's journey to become mainstream killed the meme, Gamestop becoming completely mainstream made them switch to AMC almost exclusively to the point where Thursday for the first time, AMC went up a lot and Gamestop stayed pretty much flat. So basically : Tesla has less meme power (I can't believe I just said that to talk about a $600bn company but here we are), is more mature so there are more constraints for the story being told, and there are more competition which makes Tesla being the first a liability instead of an asset. So that's very likely why Michael Burry shorted it and that's the whole point I was trying to make all along. At least it would fit his strategy pretty well. As for what I think : Elon Musk's undisputed genius, insane work ethics and meme status paid off big time for a long time. His crazy behavior also worked in his favor as it gave him and his company free publicity. This works well for the investors that look for younger companies because they're looking for unique and bold guys and he definitely fits that character perfectly. But this does not work well for investors that want to invest in $600bn businesses. Those investors prefer stability and Elon Musk is not really a stable guy. So as the company matures even more, Elon Musk will need to get his ego in check and accepts to appoint another CEO to lead this more mature company or else it will not thrive. I'm pretty sure he will do this because he would much rather have his vision become real than having his ego satisfied. As for what I think will become the next Tesla (or the next EV meme stock), Ford seems to be the next one. And if you think "Dude, it already went up 3 times in the past year!", you should probably look at the Tesla stock chart one more time. [link] [comments]  |
| Which REIT should I add to my portfolio? Posted: 29 May 2021 05:19 PM PDT Hey everyone! Looking to see if anyone here has any experience or insight with the following REITs that I'm looking to add to my portfolio. I have $1000 to spend on them and don't know if I should split between two at $500 a piece or just go with one. It is between the following: (STAG) industrial Inc - has a very solid track record and great Q1 report. Very diversified in multiple sectors and all major leases are renewed through 2023. Around $35.80 a share. Realty Income Corp (O) - also very solid track record past 10 years. Has many big branded tenets which all have 10 plus year leases. Also nothing expiring before 2023. Around 68.40 a share. Thanks! [link] [comments]  |
| Intel stock falls, should I double down or sell Posted: 30 May 2021 03:03 AM PDT I am a new stock investor and invest heavily in semi industry. Among all my investment, Intel is the 2nd biggest position. The biggest is Nvidia, which is performing well. Intel on the other hand has lost around 8% since Feb 2021. I did double down and bought some more last week and it went up by 2%. I would like hear the opions from the others to see what I am missing about Intel. Here is what I like about Intel: 1, Low P/E ratio, only 12.5 and industry average is 25. So Intel is fairly undervalued. 2, Intel is the only major chip maker in the US that manufactor its own chips. Chip self-sufficiency is a major initiative of Biden adminstration and has garnered support across both parties. So there will be a lot of favourable policiy to help Intel. 3, Intel still enjoys a strong position in CPU market, despite Apple M1 chips and resugency of AMD. Intel is still having the lion share of the market and can deliver their chips faster due to they own the fabs. 4, I believe market mispriced Intel and underestimated the potential of Intel. Similar to Facebook, Intel have had bad reputation, a lot of it is to Intels own doing, but I feel it is overblown. The talk of Intel losing share to Nvidia and AMD is bit exaggerated in my opinion. So my game plan is: I dont have more money to invest in intel. I have around 5000 dollar shares in Amazon and Apple, I plan to sell them and buy Intel if the prices keep falling. Any suggestions and feedback is very appreciated. My other investment on semi is: Lam research,applied material, Micron, Asml some AMD and Qualcomm. Amd Qualcomm are both down by 10%, I have lost interests in both businesses and plan to sell them when prices come back up. [link] [comments]  |
| Could AI help find "hidden gems" (overlooked stocks or ETFs)? Posted: 29 May 2021 01:06 PM PDT "An artificial intelligence system trained on almost 40 years of the scientific literature correctly identified 19 out of 20 research papers that have had the greatest scientific impact on biotechnology – and has selected 50 recent papers it predicts will be among the 'top 5%' of biotechnology papers in the future Scientists say the system could be used to find 'hidden gems' of research overlooked by other methods, and even to guide decisions on funding allocations so that it will be most likely to target promising research.... The researchers then used the system to correctly identify 19 of the 20 'seminal' biotechnology papers from 1980 to 2014 in a blinded study, and to select another 50 papers published in 2018 that they predict will be among the top 5% of 'impactful' biotechnology research papers in the years to come.... 'We don't expect to be able to identify all foundational technologies early,' Weis says. 'Our hope is primarily to find technologies that have been overlooked by current metrics.' [link] [comments]  |
| Contribute to Roth IRA or Individual Brokerage Posted: 29 May 2021 06:19 PM PDT I have a few thousand money I would like to invest with. I have been looking into investing into a Roth IRA since I have heard that you do not have to pay any taxes on any gains or dividends you get with any money into a Roth IRA but only with 6k a year can be invested into it. However, I currently do not have a job at this given moment and time right now and I was also reading that you need a job to contribute to a roth ira. However, I was recently accepted for an internship this summer at 25/hr for 40 hours a week for 10-12 weeks and plan on investing at least $6k of it since I will likely not need the money for the remainder of the year. As a result, Would it be wise to invest 6k into a Roth IRA right now with the fact that I will be making income in the future or should i invest whatever i have into a personal brokerage account that I have on M1/Robinhood since most of the money i currently have did not come from a job? I appreciate any help. Also would it be wise to keep both on one platform or spread out to maximize safety? For instance having Roth IRA on m1 finance and individual on Robinhood or both on M1? [link] [comments]  |
| Diversification - need help - discussion Posted: 29 May 2021 01:06 PM PDT Ok so I started really getting into buying stocks last year and i kept getting mad that if 1 or 2 of my companies had a bad day - my whole portfolio took a hit....(yes - I realize it's a marathon not a sprint) So - I diversified - but maybe I took it too far. I am trying to be a "buy and hold" person for the most part - But i am also trying to do growth stocks and dividend stocks and value stocks. In other words - i have no plan! (My only plan is to buy and buy more stocks nearly every day! almost every single day I buy a couple shares of something) as evident below: Here's My portfolio: 48 ETFs 25% of Portfolio 38 Financials 18% of Portfolio 31 Industrials 11% of Portfolio 32 REITs 11% of Portfolio 26 Energy Companies 10% of Portfolio 19 Healthcare 6% of Portfolio 33 Consumer Cyclicals 4% of Portfolio 19 Communications 4% of Portfolio 27 Tech Stocks 3% of Portfolio 3 utilities 1% of Portfolio Should i cut this out - or is this a good mix of random stuff? - I literally almost never sale anything - I just read alot of articles on Zacks and Motley Fool and reddit and a thousand different sites. If someone says to buy something - I buy a share (or 2 or 5 - not usually more than 5) **(Note if something is over $120 - I might buy half a share or 0.7 vice full share) I am running out of "Extra Money" to keep buying shares *(besides $300 a week I take out of my paycheck for this "project") So should i just add to current positions - or should I cut out of alot of these and consolidate a bit to cut back to fewer companies owned? Is the portfolio a good mix? I am looking for experienced people to just give opinions - you don't have to be a financial advisor Note - this little plan has been sort of working as I am seeing steady but slow gains - up between 1-2% nearly every week - but never huge gains (and thats ok) - I am also receiving between $30 to $40 per month in dividends every month from this hodge podge of random stocks - but i don't have DRIP enabled - i just use the dividends to add a new stock when they add up. Am I TOO diverse? I also buy a few options *(Mostly ITM Calls) - *(max at a couple hundred $$ per week) - but that is something I am slowly learning and trying to get better at - not directly related to my main portfolio, but if I go 3 months and cannot show a profit I will just quit doing that (and use that money to buy more stocks every day) [link] [comments]  |
| Using an analysis service to guide early investing (Zacks) Posted: 29 May 2021 08:44 PM PDT I'm an American in my twenties and have about $60k invested- 10k in my Roth. I wouldn't say I am absolutely tied to any of my holdings right now. My question is this: Zack's is a resource several of my mentors have mentioned before. Their website boasts that their top grade for stocks ("buy nows") has yielded nearly 25% annual average for the last three decades. Why wouldn't it be worth it to just buy a Zack's subscription and make their portfolio mine, while I continue to learn valuation techniques? Long term to narrow down potential options, and short term to build my portfolio to be more diverse and better positioned for the now? There are the obvious downsides of the annual fee (~$250 that is taking the place of an expense ratio). But what else am I missing? Achieving 2 and a half times the market standard over multiple decades seems to be an unbelievable track record, and a trusted one. Thanks so much in advance! [link] [comments]  |
| Discovery WarnerMedia Merger IRR Test Posted: 29 May 2021 09:09 AM PDT Quick test on $DISCA and WM merger. Assumptions I made are in light yellow, and assumptions from Management and John Malone interview (links below) are highlighted light blue. I listed out my assumptions below in bullet points to answer q's. As I think about this more, the deal has become more appealing. It is easy to see how they could mess up everything along the way, but the valuation is pretty reasonable and doesn't seem to factor in a lot of the upside potential that could be captured here. Let me know if I am missing anything glaringly obvious w/ the merger calc (imgur snippet)-
My twitter where I post finance stuff sometimes Model Sources https://s27.q4cdn.com/187472364/files/doc_presentations/2021/ATT-Discovery-WM-05172021-FINAL.pdf [link] [comments]  |
| Book recommendations to take investing knowledge to the next level? Posted: 29 May 2021 04:35 PM PDT Hey folks, I currently work in the finance/wealth industry and have done my CFA. And while I believe that my fundamental knowledge of financial markets is good, I was looking for recommendations on investing books to take my knowledge to the next level. Sometimes when I'm at work I'll find it's tough to keep up with ideas and thoughts of the men and women who have done this much longer than I have. I know some of this will come with experience throughout my career, but I wanted to take the first step in improving my investing knowledge. So with that, does anyone have any recommendations for interesting finance/investing books? [link] [comments]  |
| UONE Possible 2843% Gain for June $500+ Million Casino Posted: 30 May 2021 01:19 AM PDT If anyone is looking for a good stock then check out $UONE This had 2843% gain June 14-June 18 last year in just 4 days. So far it did a 114% gain and it consolidating around 50% gain for the month June starts on Tuesday and last year the gain started June 12 Friday was the last day to buy in. Because Monday June 14-18 it went up from $1.84 to $54.16 by June 18. Thats 2843% in 4 days. Also most casinos are no where near this price. Long term this will be in the $50-$70+ range easily Let's do it again this year. Catalysts
Video On the casino youtube.com/watch?v=cygutvZ... [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 29 May 2021 01:19 PM PDT Is there any point in me buying VTI if it will be taxed when I sell a couple decades from now? I can buy VWRP under an ISA (£20,000 tax free per year). The top holdings are similiar but VWRP is global. What do you guys think? My plan is to make at least 50% of my portfolio a broad market index etf. I know VTI, VOO, SPY are the most popular but I can't buy them under ISA since they aren't on the LSE. [link] [comments]  |
| How to calculate total holdings of my etfs? Posted: 29 May 2021 08:57 AM PDT So i ended up with a bunch of ETFS. So far they are doing good, and also had good past performance when I used the simulator. But I've got quite a few and was trying to figure out if my total accumulation in various stocks would be better served with various substitutes. I have collected all the holdings from fidelity where I am investing from, and put them in excel. But my methods to try to get the total holdings aren't working out as I was hoping. IF ETF A and ETF B both hold apple for example at lets say 5% and 2% respectively. I cant just add those together and say I have 7% of apple. I also cant multiply my shares by that percentage. If I have 2 shares of ETF A and .5 of ETF B, I don't think a simple 2*5% or .5 * 2% is going to work out either. Cause I would then also have to figure out the percentages of that in relation to all the other holdings I end up with. I'm probably wasting my time with all this, but maybe not if my actual goal is to find a suitable replacement that covers my spread similarly to what I have currently. Are there any resources that does this for you, cause trying to do it manually is proving to be difficult as I think there are other factors I need to consider as well. [link] [comments]  |
| UK - ETFs for US markets that come under ISA? Posted: 29 May 2021 06:29 AM PDT I want to buy something like a VTI, VOO, SPY, QQQ that I can hold for decades and not be taxed when I sell. However my broker says that those etfs are not eligible to trade under the tax wrapper associated with my account? Does anyone else have this issue? If not, what broker do you use? Is this just a UK thing ? I'm with IG and can't find any general index fund that I can buy under my ISA. [link] [comments]  |
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