Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - May 03, 2021 Investing |
- Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - May 03, 2021
- Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.
- Credit Suisse made just $17.5m in Archegos fees in year before $5.4bn losses
- How do ETFs initially get priced?
- Why hasn’t Facebook stock reacted to apple’s privacy war?
- Have you considered investing in helium?
- Retail Dragon Portfolio - Week 1 Update
- What's your average return?
- systematic investing - thoughts?
- Dividend ETF vs Growth ETF
- $MCS Movie Theaters, Hotels and Vacation Resorts?
- Ellsberg Paradox: Was Value Once Seen As More Volatile Than Growth?
- Water ETFs ? 2040 water shortage what water ETFs are out there to buy?
- $BAM for inflation? real asset choices
- China Recycling Energy Corporation (NASDAQ: CREG)
- paying for signals - any value here?
| Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - May 03, 2021 Posted: 03 May 2021 02:01 AM PDT Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here! This thread is for:
Keep in mind that this subreddit, and this thread, is not an appropriate venue for questions that should be directed towards your broker's customer support or google. If you would like to ask a question about your personal situation or if you are asking for advice please keep these posts in the daily advice thread as that thread is more well suited for those questions. Any posts that should be comments in this thread will likely be removed. [link] [comments]  |
| Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Posted: 03 May 2021 02:00 AM PDT If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our side bar also has useful resources. Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  |
| Credit Suisse made just $17.5m in Archegos fees in year before $5.4bn losses Posted: 02 May 2021 10:19 PM PDT https://www.ft.com/content/429f2cd2-db55-42b8-a65c-a228cdb3089d
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| How do ETFs initially get priced? Posted: 03 May 2021 02:04 AM PDT Hi r/investing, When SPY first came on the scene in 1993, it was priced around $44 (from what I've researched). My question is, how did that number come to be? I've been doing a bit of research into ETF pricing. I understand that ETF prices are determined by their daily NAV (unless I'm mistaken here), but how does the initial figure get decided on? Because an ETF float isn't capped per se, I'm finding it hard to understand versus a regular stock. As a sidebar, I'd also love to know how/if this is different to actively managed ETFs like ARKK, for example. How did they set their initial price of around $20 and how does the price get influenced day to day? Thanks in advance! [link] [comments]  |
| Why hasn’t Facebook stock reacted to apple’s privacy war? Posted: 03 May 2021 02:25 AM PDT Recently apple announced a number of privacy changes coming with IOS 14.5, which will ask users when they use an app for the first time whether they want to allow the app to track them across the device as a whole. Facebook noted this will most likely hurt profits and slow growth somewhat. Revenue from apple users make up a large portion of facebooks overall sales, and apple has a clear history of being a trendsetter. I've even seen some people say this may be the beginning of the end for facebook, which i think is a bit extreme, but it does beg the question: why hasn't $FB had a sharp drop recently? They're a couple percent off ATH as i type this. [link] [comments]  |
| Have you considered investing in helium? Posted: 02 May 2021 09:22 PM PDT The next supply squeeze that may take markets by surprise isn't lithium. It isn't even a battery metal … While everyone is distracted by the media barrage surrounding EVs, another commodity may be creating an investment opportunity to rival all … We think it's potentially bigger than the cannabis boom that reportedly netted some investors 1,000% gains. It's helium. And some experts say we're running out of it. It's not just a niche commodity anymore. It's not just about balloons. And we think it's positioned to become the focus of increased investor interest. Like oil and gas, this is about exploration, discovery, and development. And we think the biggest returns may end up coming from the small-cap explorers trying to hit the big time with a new discovery - all on their own. Growing Helium Demand Demand for helium is increasing, and it's coming from multiple sectors, including everything from the tech and biomedical industries, to space, medical equipment and national security. And, yes, of course, party balloons and Thanksgiving Day parades. Many industries require helium. It's been reported that the tech industry has been a massive catalyst, and that 2013 was a game-changing year for helium supply. That's when the world's first 'helium drives' were made commercially available, making helium a key ingredient to fill our monstrous appetite for data. Some 3.7 billion people are generating some 2.5 quintillion bytes of data every single day. And even those numbers may grow by up to 60% a year. By 2025, it is projected to be more like 160 zettabytes per year. Helium drives were apparently a breakthrough that replaced the air in hard drives with helium to reduce the energy used. They went from concept to commercialization in 2013. Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX)--all are said to need tons of it for their massive data centers. We think demand is set to surge into the helium-driven territory of zettabytes. And the growing semiconductor market may depend on helium, too. Why? Because helium can bring temperatures down to below -450 degrees Fahrenheit--lower even than liquid nitrogen. This is important for superconducting equipment in particle accelerators and the magnets used to build semiconductors, according to Forbes. Driving this further is a global computer chip shortage. In Geneva, Switzerland, the Large Haldron Collider (LHC), the largest high-energy particle accelerator on Earth--and the biggest machine in the world, needs a truckload of helium every week. Nor does the demand story end there … The health sector is another major driver of helium demand. It's also critical for use in cooling magnets in MRI machines. Without helium, we won't have working MRIs. The shortage also threatens NMRs--nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, which in turn is a crucial aspect of medical research. Two small cap stocks to consider Royal Helium - RHC.v Desert Mountain Energy - DME.v [link] [comments]  |
| Retail Dragon Portfolio - Week 1 Update Posted: 02 May 2021 05:16 PM PDT First weekly update on the Retail Dragon Portfolio. A new screenshot can be found here. Overall, the portfolio was up 0.24% for the week. This was mainly driven by our commodity trend allocation. The SPY was -0.11% while the TLT was -0.21%. Overall the portfolio outperformed the 60/40 during Week 1. That being said, I received a lot of feedback on the original post. Namely, the portfolio was far too conservative to be able to grow at the expected 15% over time. I went back and look at Chris Cole's specific recommendation. It does appear he goes higher weight equities than we had originally allocated. Additionally, he uses leverage to achieve the target portfolio volatility of 15%. I was curious how this would work, so I ran some backtests using 3x leveraged ETFs for TLT, GLD and SPY. This backtesting is not perfect because we don't have a volatility component, but it proved to me you can get higher returns than the traditional 60/40 portfolio by using leverage.
Going forward, I will reallocate our Retail Dragon Portfolio to the following:
A note on Commodity Trend. There were many questions on Commodity Trend from the original post. Many people thought we were simply long commodities. This is not the case. The goal of this allocation is to be short or long depending on a trend following technique. For this portfolio, we plan to follow a simple 40/50 Moving Average cross over technique. Long when it's the 40 day moving average is higher. Short when the 50 day moving average is higher. You are free to use your own trend following technique if you want to customize our approach. The goal of this allocation is to capture the large moves commodities tend to have during periods of financial stress or strong recovery. For example, look at NYSE: TECK from 2007 to 2011. Imagine if you had a strategy that would benefit from going short on the downside AND long on the upside. This would have helped your portfolio out greatly even as equities and gold were performing poorly. I will implement this when markets open Monday and will be tracking the new portfolio from scratch. I look forward to hearing any comments or feedback on this approach moving forward. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 02 May 2021 04:54 AM PDT The stock market has been crazy over the last few years, and everyone keeps talking about high-fliers like Tesla and other companies that have increased their market cap by 800%+ in the last year or so. Unfortunately, it's not always possible to pick the winners like these when investing, since there are so many choices. With that in mind, I'm curious as to what your average yearly return has been in the last 5 years in the stock market, or from the start of your investing career if you haven't participated in the markets for as long. [link] [comments]  |
| systematic investing - thoughts? Posted: 03 May 2021 03:39 AM PDT Hey All, Hope everyone is doing well. I'm sure in one way or another we all incorporate a systematic approach to our investment style whether it's in terms of screening or a checklist when conducting research. I'd love to know if you implement a rules-based approach to your investment strategy and if so why? Is it to mitigate some fundamental flaw that you have or speed up the decision-making process? For me, I feel it's great for battling my conservatism when pulling the trigger. Sure it comes at an opportunity cost being stringent to rules but I really feel having such as system in place out ways the cons. I talked more about it on my podcast recently, would love to hear your thoughts? https://open.spotify.com/episode/1xhO0Qv1BvvxP3mZMpDnym?si=abb1cb983db2483f [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 02 May 2021 07:42 AM PDT So I was looking into ETFs and high dividend ETFs. I was wondering, wouldn't it make a lot more sense to simply invest in a growth ETF, and then sell a portion of the annual return after every year? If I'm understanding it correctly, you'd pay a lot less in taxes if you sell after holding for 1 year because of long term capital gains tax. Also, don't growth ETF's usually perform better than dividend ETFs? What's the advantage of high dividend ETF's besides maybe providing a more "stable" income source during market recessions? [link] [comments]  |
| $MCS Movie Theaters, Hotels and Vacation Resorts? Posted: 02 May 2021 09:38 PM PDT I picked up 200 Shares this week at 19.20 or so, pre pandemic this stock was in the 40s. Earnings is this week with Zack's giving it a high likely hood to beat estimates which are -1.20. My GF works in one of their hotels, and the company just reinstated bonus for sales and management, and their bookings for this summer are the highest she's seen in 5 years. I think movies are going to have a monster summer as well. Looking for some discussion as I consider doubling my position, because I think the stock has a lot of room to return to pre levels, over the next few years. Thoughts? [link] [comments]  |
| Ellsberg Paradox: Was Value Once Seen As More Volatile Than Growth? Posted: 02 May 2021 10:44 AM PDT Currently reading Jason Zweig's Your Money and Your Brain (2007) and this sounded a little backwards when I first read it. It doesn't make as much sense out of context, but when explaining the connection between the Ellsberg Paradox and your investment decisions, he concluded with this: "All this makes investing in value stocks or small stocks the equivalent of trying to pick a black ball from Urn B: The higher ambiguity makes your odds of success feel less certain. Picking from the "predictable" growth stocks in Urn A simply feels safer. So most investors steer clear of value companies and small stocks, driving their share prices down, and pile into big growth companies, sending their stocks soaring - at least in the short run. Over longer periods, however, growth stocks and the stocks most popular with analysts tend to earn lower returns than value stocks and underanalyzed companies. By avoiding stocks that are high in ambiguity, the investing public makes them underperform in the short run - creating bargains that go on to outperform over the long run." For more clarity, the Ellsberg Paradox is a choice between two urns in front of you for a chance to win $100. You can't see inside either urn. Each urn contains 100 balls. Urn A contains exactly 50 red balls and 50 black balls. Urn B contains exactly 100 balls; some of which are red and some are black, but you do not know how many there are of each. You win the $100 if you choose a red ball. Which urn do you choose from? Links would have been included here if I weren't posting from mobile. Is it not commonplace to view growth stocks as more volatile than value? Was this view different 15 years ago? [link] [comments]  |
| Water ETFs ? 2040 water shortage what water ETFs are out there to buy? Posted: 02 May 2021 12:40 PM PDT Community Water Corporation Agreement Example For Evart, a small American town in Michigan, these blurry lines are clear. As a provider of water for Nestl̩, Evart serves as an example of a community-corporation agreement. The result of which, means Nestl̩ purchases and uses Evart's water sources for private use Рwhat some might recognise on the market today as Ice Mountain bottled water. Challenges arise, however, within the terms of that deal. Having purchased rights to Evart's water supply, Nestl̩ is free to pump out large amounts of water at a high volume Р250 gallons per minute, to be exact. And at a relatively cheap price: paying $200 a year to the community, Nestl̩ can pump 130 million gallons of water annually and sell that water for profit. This is all done in spite of the fact that unprecedented water pumping contributes to the degradation of Evart's local wells, whilst also affecting the water supply actually available to locals. For some in the community, Nestl̩'s promises of new factories in Evart and the fact that they bought the water in the first place, is enough of a positive. For others, Nestl̩'s presence has sparked outrage within the Evart community, leading to some uniting as a non-profit organisation known as Michigan Citizens for Water Conservation. By 2040, we be at the brute force of water crisis that will be well publicized I own water rights to a few properties throughout Idaho and Washington. I'm looking to understand what ETFs are out there for water? [link] [comments]  |
| $BAM for inflation? real asset choices Posted: 02 May 2021 09:12 PM PDT so brookfield is a globally diverse real asset company. which as i currently understand real assets are a top investment option during times of inflation. however would this still be a good choice given the fact that what youre buying is a stock and is exposed to the risks facing the equity markets as a whole? would a real asset company retain actual value during inflation despite the stock price falling and remain a good place to keep money? this isnt a thread to debate whether or not we think inflation is coming or not. [link] [comments]  |
| China Recycling Energy Corporation (NASDAQ: CREG) Posted: 02 May 2021 09:02 AM PDT China Recycling Energy Corporation is involved in the recycling energy business. The Company provides environmentally friendly waste-to-energy technologies to recycle industrial byproducts such as heat, steam, pressure, and exhaust to generate electricity and reduce the need for outside electrical sources. They are a leading developer of waste energy recycling for industrial applications in China. They design, finance, construct, operate and eventually transfer energy saving and recovery facilities for multiple energy intensive industries. Providing clean-technology and energy-efficient solution aimed at improving the air pollution and energy shortage problems in China. Their waste energy recycling projects allow customers who use substantial amounts of electricity to recapture previously wasted pressure, heat, and gas from their manufacturing processes to generate electricity. The projects capture industrial waste energy to produce low-cost electricity, enabling industrial manufacturers to reduce their energy costs, lower their operating costs, extend the life of primary manufacturing equipment, and generate saleable emission credits under the Kyoto Protocol. China Recycling Energy Corporation currently offers waste energy recycling systems to companies for use in iron and steel, nonferrous metal, cement, coal and petrochemical plants. [link] [comments]  |
| paying for signals - any value here? Posted: 02 May 2021 08:06 AM PDT what's the general consensus? and i don't mean like paying for in depth dives and DD from a major investment bank, i mean penny stock fortunes, contrarian outlook, bob's forex signals, whatever. anyone have profitable experience? anyone have opinion based on personal experience? my sense is most of this is just a shell game to make the publisher profitable, as anyone can take a chart and say "if you'd bought here you'd make a zillion % buy my stuff now". i base this on the mirror image format generally seen amongst them (long suck-you-in descriptor followed by freebies and then a price). am i right? [link] [comments]  |
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