Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Technicals Tuesday - Apr 27, 2021 |
- r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Technicals Tuesday - Apr 27, 2021
- I analyzed 66,000+ buy and sell recommendations made by financial analysts over the last 10 years. Here are the results.
- Alphabet reports big earnings beat as revenue grows 34%
- AMD crushes Earnings
- How do people find stocks before they go up?
- "Microsoft books biggest revenue growth since 2018"... and $MSFT down 3%+ after hours. Why?
- Pintrest Drops 10% in after hours after missing on user growth expectations.
- Microsoft Beats Earnings Estimates
- Analyzing an Earnings Report (quick and short version)
- DraftKings (DKNG) enters sports media business by landing Meadowlark Media
- Here is a Market Recap for today Tuesday, April 27, 2021
- What is going on with stock valuation right now?
- Raytheon Technologies ($RTX) Tops Q1 Earnings Estimates
- Potential Gasoline Distribution Problem in the USA, Thoughts?
- Will E-Commerce Stocks continue to flourish in a post-COVID world?
- r/Stocks Discuss Overlooked Stocks Tuesday - Apr 27, 2021
- “Stock price eventually approaches valuation” - True?
- Apple earnings in 2 days, Can the Stock rally if they beat estimates?
- Best books for Fundamental Analysis
- GEO Short Interest increased to 33%. A short squeeze could be on the horizon
- How does inflation impact the stock market, if it really does end up coming?
| r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Technicals Tuesday - Apr 27, 2021 Posted: 27 Apr 2021 02:30 AM PDT This is the daily discussion, so anything stocks related is fine, but the theme for today is on technical analysis (TA), but if TA is not your thing then just ignore the theme and/or post your arguments against TA here and not in the current post. Some helpful day to day links, including news:
Technical analysis (TA) uses historical price movements, real time data, indicators based on math and/or statistics, and charts; all of which help measure the trajectory of a security. TA can also be used to interpret the actions of other market participants and predict their actions. The main benefit to TA is that everything shows up in the price (commonly known as "priced in"): All news, investor sentiment, and changes to fundamentals are reflected in a security's price. TA can be useful on any timeframe, both short and long term. Intro to technical analysis by Stockcharts chartschool and their article on candlesticks If you have questions, please see the following word cloud and click through for the wiki: See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday. [link] [comments]  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 27 Apr 2021 05:57 AM PDT Preamble: I suppose all of us have come across an analyst report while doing DD on a stock. Most of the reports that are freely available to the average investor are either dated or limited in access (we only have the buy/sell ratings and not the deep dive on the stock). According to this Bloomberg report, Goldman Sachs charges $30K for access to its basic research, JP Morgan $10K per report, and Barclays charging up to $455K for its equity research package. What I wanted to know was if you actually pay for the reports and then follow their recommendations, would you be able to beat the market in the long run? Surprisingly, there were no trackers following the performance of analyst picks over the long term and I decided to build one. Where is the data from: Yahoo Finance. I used yfinance API to pull all the analyst recommendations made from 2011 for S&P500 companies. While this is in no way a complete list of recommendations, I felt that the data I had was deep enough for the analysis. Both Bloomberg and Quandl provide richer data but costs more than $20K for their subscription and also won't allow you to share the recommendations with the public. (I have shared all the recommendations and my analysis in an Excel Sheet at the end) Analysis: There were a total of 66,516 recommendations made by analysts over the last 10 years for S&P500 companies. Following is the split of recommendations.
For the three sets, I calculated the stock price change across four periods. a. One week after recommendation b. One month after recommendation c. One quarter after recommendation I benchmarked the change against S&P500 and also checked what percentage of recommendations increased in value compared to the benchmark. I limited my time horizon to one quarter since analysts usually create reports every quarter and I did not want to overlap different recommendations. Finally, I also checked which banks made the best recommendations over the last decade. Results: Performance of Buy Recommendations
Out of the 35K buy recommendations made by the analysts, the average increase in stock price across the time periods were better than the SPY benchmark with one week returns bettering SPY by more than 40%. Adding to this, I also benchmarked the percentage of times analyst made the call and the stock price went up vs the SP500 index. Performance of Sell Recommendations:
Sell recommendations given by analysts definitely have a short-term impact on the stock price. As we can see from the chart, the one-week performance of stocks that were recommended as a sell was lower than that of the benchmark. But this trend does not hold over the long term with stocks having sell recommendations significantly outperforming the market over the time period of more than one month. Another thing to note here is that on average even after the sell recommendation, the stock price did not fall. (ie, the returns were not negative) Which investment banks made the best recommendations?: you can find the chart here I analyzed the returns of the recommendations made by different banks. The most number of recommendations were made by Morgan Stanley with them making more than 2300 recommendations in the last 10 years. From the above chart, you can see that overall, the best returns were made by Barclays with their recommendations beating SP500 by more than 125% in one-week gains and more than 30% in quarterly gains. How much money should you be managing to profitably buy analyst reports? I did a rough calculation on the amount of assets you need to be managing to make sense for actually paying for the reports. From the above analysis, we could see that the analyst reports beat the market by 23%, and on average full access to analyst reports of a bank will set you back by $500K per year. Putting in the above numbers, you need to have a whopping $19MM of assets under management just to break even. Going on a conservative side, to comfortably make profits and not to have the analyst report fee considerably impact your returns, you should be managing at least $100MM. Limitations of analysis: The above analysis is far from perfect and has multiple limitations. First, this is not the full list of recommendations made by these companies and are just the ones that were updated on Yahoo Finance. I also could not get any information on price targets made by the analysts to supplement my analysis. Finally, even though this analysis covers the last 10 years, it had been predominantly a bull run and this can bias the results in favor of the banks. This aspect could also be seen by observing how poorly the sell recommendations made by the banks faired. Conclusion: I started the analysis skeptical of the returns generated by recommendations made by analysts. There has been a lot of rumors and speculations about whether analysts have access to information the public doesn't. Whatever the case may be, the above analysis shows that if you have access to the analyst reports, you definitely can beat the market over the long run. Whether it's financially viable or not to access the reports depends on the amount of asset you have under management, in this case at least $100MM! Excel Sheet link containing all the recommendations and more detailed analysis: here Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor and in no way related to any investment banks showcased above. [link] [comments]  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Alphabet reports big earnings beat as revenue grows 34% Posted: 27 Apr 2021 01:12 PM PDT https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/27/alphabet-goog-earnings-q1-2021.html Earnings: $26.29 per share vs. $15.82 per share expected Revenue: $55.31 billion vs. $51.70 billion expected Google Cloud revenue: $4.05 billion $4.07 billion, according to FactSet estimates. YouTube ads: $6.01 billion vs. $5.70 billion, according to StreetAccount. Traffic Acquisition Costs (TAC): $9.71 billion vs. $9.25 billion, according to FactSet estimates. This is a good quarter for google. It is really the best reopening play. The stock performance ytd has been outperforming the entire Faang group. [link] [comments]  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 27 Apr 2021 01:43 PM PDT Q1 2021 Results
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| How do people find stocks before they go up? Posted: 27 Apr 2021 05:34 AM PDT I always see people on reddit posting DD or their gains on stocks that no one has ever heard of. I know it is some sort of analysis but how do you find the stock in the first place and how would I go about learning to analyze stocks? [link] [comments]  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| "Microsoft books biggest revenue growth since 2018"... and $MSFT down 3%+ after hours. Why? Posted: 27 Apr 2021 01:54 PM PDT Insomuch as anyone can truly explain anything, why does this happen? I'm no veteran, but in the year or so I've been doing my own trades, I've seen this several times. (Most recently with $HOME, which is just now approaching its price previous to announcing earnings at the end of March, when by all accounts it crushed estimates.) Anyway, I just added 3 shares for a total of 16 (avg: $233.67). [link] [comments]  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Pintrest Drops 10% in after hours after missing on user growth expectations. Posted: 27 Apr 2021 02:09 PM PDT https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/27/pinterest-pins-earnings-q1-2021.html Obviously not financial advice. I honestly think this makes a perfect time to buy more of this stock. I believe in their partnership with shopify, there's not a single woman that I know, that does not use the website/app. Company has little debt and a CEO that seems to have a vision. [link] [comments]  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Microsoft Beats Earnings Estimates Posted: 27 Apr 2021 01:48 PM PDT Microsoft easily beats earnings estimates and Azure was up 50%.
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| Analyzing an Earnings Report (quick and short version) Posted: 27 Apr 2021 11:05 AM PDT For earnings reports, public companies are required to submit a 10-Q (quarterly report) or annual report (10-K) with the SEC. The 10-Q is unaudited, meaning it has not been approved by a certified external auditor. The 10-K is audited. You can read more about the details of 10-Q and 10-K forms on any financial website. Or google. So let's go over the fast way to read an earnings report.
So in short, ask yourselves: How did the company perform financially Q/Q and Y/Y? What factors led to these results? What does guidance say about its future? Will the financials grow more, less, or the same? What are the headwinds and tailwinds? Will upcoming trends and macroeconomical conditions affect future growth? If you can answer these questions, you're on a good path. If you cannot, more research is required. For some companies, understanding their business model and the industry they're in can be difficult to assess. Tesla is a great example because of the extremes of the two sides, bulls and bears (TESLAQ). Tesla is in a unique position because their earnings consist of EV credits, and in this earnings cycle, they sold about $100 million in Bitcoin. They also didn't have an S/X models delivered or produced because of the refresh. So how did the company beat on earnings? What's their guidance? I'll leave that for all to research yourselves :) Anyway, this is just a quick way to understanding earnings reports. Understanding a company's potential is based on some factors like the industry its in, business model, and more. It takes a few hours or less to read an earnings report and understanding the financials. It takes hours or days to actually understand a company as a whole. IMO, don't read stock books. Read about businesses, the industries they're in, their TAM/SAM/SOM. If you really want to make money, you need to understand where the world is transitioning to. Ask, "are electric vehicles the future?", "is telemedicine relevant even after COVID?", "do I and my friends/family/coworkers go to the gym anymore? or do we attend zoom fitness classes?", "are users moving away from Netflix to other streaming services?". Notice the products and services you and your peers use. Hope this helps some people with their research! [link] [comments]  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| DraftKings (DKNG) enters sports media business by landing Meadowlark Media Posted: 27 Apr 2021 09:50 AM PDT DraftKings enters the sports media game by landing a 50 million dollar deal with former ESPN personality Dan (The Hippo) LeBatard. More details surrounding the deal can be found here: https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/greg-cote/article250690074.html I like what DraftKings is doing here, but what do we think they mean by it? Pay the teachers. [link] [comments]  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Here is a Market Recap for today Tuesday, April 27, 2021 Posted: 27 Apr 2021 01:42 PM PDT PsychoMarket Recap - Tuesday, April 27, 2021 Stocks turned modestly lower Tuesday, as market participants awaited for more corporate earnings results and commentary from members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), including Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. This week, a slew of huge companies are set to report corporate earnings for the first quarter of 2021. Altogether, the market caps of the companies reporting this week comprise nearly half the total market cap of the S&P 500, according to FactSet. So far, the vast majority of companies have vastly exceeded analyst estimates, with effective vaccine distribution in the US helping stoke demand as the economy gradually reopens. Eighty-four percent of the S&P 500 companies that have reported first-quarter results to date posted a positive earnings per share surprise, according to data from FactSet. This would mark the highest percentage of companies reporting upside surprises since FactSet began tracking this metric in 2008, assuming this beat rate holds through the end of earnings season. Today kicked off the first of the FOMC's two-day rate-setting meeting. The event is extremely unlikely to lead to any major shifts in monetary policy, with officials reiterating their commitment to keeping policy highly accommodative as the economy continues to recover from the pandemic. This includes maintaining interest rates near zero and maintaining an aggressive asset purchasing program at a monthly rate of $120 billion. In an earlier meeting, Powell said the Central Bank would slow the pace of its bond purchase program "well before" raising interest rates. Powell said, "We will taper asset purchases when we've made substantial further progress toward our goals from last December when we announced that guidance. That would in all likelihood be well before the time we consider raising rates." In other news, according to a report by the Conference Board, consumer confidence has surged to a 14-month high in April as effective distribution of the vaccine and easing of social distancing guidelines in the US allows for the economy to gradually reopen. The Conference Board's monthly consumer confidence index jumped to a reading of 121.7 in April, or well above the 113.0 expected. Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the Conference Board, said in a statement, "Consumers' assessment of current conditions improved significantly in April, suggesting the economic recovery strengthened further in early Q2. Consumers' optimism about the short-term outlook held steady this month. Consumers were more upbeat about their income prospects, perhaps due to the improving job market and the recent round of stimulus checks." Highlights
"An investment in knowledge pays the best interest." — Benjamin Franklin [link] [comments]  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| What is going on with stock valuation right now? Posted: 27 Apr 2021 05:49 AM PDT Tl;dr I want to buy stocks but everything has a P/E ratio double that of what is historically normal, what is going on and why are value ETFs long on so many overvalued positions? Hey all, newbie question here: I'm new to investing and learning the basics of stock valuation. The way I understand it, you start by looking at a company's price to earnings ratio, or P/E. From moneychimp.com:
It goes on to say that you may want to buy at a high PE ratio if you expect earnings to keep increasing. My understanding is also that the average P/E ratio historically has been somewhere in the ballpark of 13-15. Anything below that, all other fundamentals being equal, is considered a healthy buy. Now I'm looking into large cap ETFs (I don't have any positions yet) and checking the valuation of their top holdings and.... I'm seeing P/E ratios way above the historical average. Just some examples from this morning: AAPL: 36.42 GOOG: 37.20 MSFT: 38.96 WMT: 29.06 JNJ: 28.99 AMZN: 81.51 ?!! TSLA: 1,158.65 ??!!?! I get that the highest values here are tech, which may have a strong expectation to keep growing, but Tesla with a P/E ratio in the thousands? Is this normal? Is this the result of massive money printing going straight to Wall Street and inflated stock prices relative to consumer goods (and thus relative to earnings)? What is going on? Thanks in advance. [link] [comments]  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Raytheon Technologies ($RTX) Tops Q1 Earnings Estimates Posted: 27 Apr 2021 06:35 AM PDT (Sorry, on Mobile) Presentation material from RTX website, where it goes into detail: https://investors.rtx.com/events/event-details/first-quarter-2021-earnings-conference-call Zacks Post: TEXT Raytheon Technologies came out with quarterly earnings of $0.90 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.88 per share. This compares to earnings of $1.78 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items. This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 2.27%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this an aerospace and defense company would post earnings of $0.71 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.74, delivering a surprise of 4.23%.Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times. Raytheon Technologies, which belongs to the Zacks Aerospace - Defense Equipment industry, posted revenues of $15.25 billion for the quarter ended March 2021, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.83%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $18.21 billion. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates two times over the last four quarters. The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call. Raytheon Technologies shares have added about 12.6% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 11.3%.What's Next for Raytheon Technologies? While Raytheon Technologies has outperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock? There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately. Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions. Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Raytheon Technologies was favorable. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to outperform the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here. It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is $0.80 on $15.72 billion in revenues for the coming quarter and $3.64 on $65.13 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year. Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Aerospace - Defense Equipment is currently in the top 41% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1. [link] [comments]  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Potential Gasoline Distribution Problem in the USA, Thoughts? Posted: 27 Apr 2021 12:21 PM PDT New article on CNN about a shortage of tanker truck drivers. This would cause a blockage between oil companies and refiners on one side, gas retailers (and everything downstream of them) on the other. Depending on what happens with gas retail prices it could affect EV and other trucking stocks. [link] [comments]  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Will E-Commerce Stocks continue to flourish in a post-COVID world? Posted: 27 Apr 2021 01:59 PM PDT Looking for thoughts regarding E-Commerce stocks... I have majority of money tied up in SE, Amazon, Alibaba, EBay, Chewy and Shopify. I'm wondering if when everything reopens will it effect those stocks as people go to physical stores stores? Netflix and now Pintrest has said to expect slower growth due to this. Will the same happen to ecommerce? [link] [comments]  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| r/Stocks Discuss Overlooked Stocks Tuesday - Apr 27, 2021 Posted: 27 Apr 2021 09:00 AM PDT It's lunchtime, Wall St time; time to discuss overlooked stocks that no one is talking about: Overlooked & possibly undervalued stocks. All the rules of r/Stocks still apply, so please see the sidebar or click here. But here's the twist you can't bring up meme stocks that have been hotly discussed in the past several weeks. Those stocks that everyone has been talking about, you can't bring up here or they'll be autoremoved. Why? It's to keep this thread pure & focused. The current list of meme stocks can be found here. So don't mention these stocks in this post or your comment will be removed. Need ideas on which stocks to discuss, try a screener like this one. Important links:
After discussing your stock here, feel free to create a post on r/Stocks with all the information you might have just learned. Thanks & enjoy! [link] [comments]  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| “Stock price eventually approaches valuation” - True? Posted: 27 Apr 2021 11:20 AM PDT Many investors try to estimate intrinsic value of a company, then compare it to market value and buy if it's lower, some even short if it's higher. This whole "value investing" strategy is based on the premise that the stock price will eventually meet the intrinsic value of the company. It's not obvious to me whether that's really the case. Are there any arguments to support it? [link] [comments]  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Apple earnings in 2 days, Can the Stock rally if they beat estimates? Posted: 27 Apr 2021 11:05 AM PDT Hello Here is a small part from the article I found regarding upcoming Apple earnings: " Apple could crush Street estimates, writes Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty, who has an Overweight rating and a $158 price target on the stock, up 17% from Monday's close of $134.72. She sees the top line above $80 billion, with all segments growing at least 19% year over year. She is especially bullish on Mac and iPad sales, with estimates far above consensus—53% for Macs and 52% for iPads. She also expects Apple to increase its dividend by 10% and expand its stock repurchase program by $60 billion. " To see the original article click here. So what do you think guys, can APPL really rally after earnings? They are already up 88 percent during 1 year, How far can it still go? [link] [comments]  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Best books for Fundamental Analysis Posted: 27 Apr 2021 07:59 AM PDT Preferably for dummies if possible. If not, any suggestion is appreciated. Goal: understand FA, its limitation and range of application. Obviously it's more of an informed overview. Being informed doesn't always mean you're right. But it means more likely than not you're safe and your chance of being right is higher. I have to write more words so the auto-moderator does not remove this post for low-effort but it is just a simple question. Thanks [link] [comments]  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GEO Short Interest increased to 33%. A short squeeze could be on the horizon Posted: 27 Apr 2021 02:28 PM PDT All we need now is a few more shorts and GEO could rally. Short interest has increased to 33 % to 38,600,000 shares short. Up 10% on the short since last week. https://shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=GEO&submit=Short+Quote%E2%84%A2 Earnings are out on May 10th. If the earnings are reasonable (and GEO has been beating expectations) then the chance for a short squeeze increases. Today's price action suggestive of more shorts being piled on. [link] [comments]  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| How does inflation impact the stock market, if it really does end up coming? Posted: 27 Apr 2021 09:02 AM PDT Many predict inflation may become huge in the coming months. Wondering if this is supposed to be a bullish or bearish thing to expect? Some tell me it'll lead to another bull run since prices going up, means stock market prices going up with it. Others tell me it means people will be hesitant to spend money, impacting businesses, thus drop stock market prices down, what's the right answer? [link] [comments]  |
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