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    Thursday, April 29, 2021

    Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Options Trading Thursday - Apr 29, 2021

    Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Options Trading Thursday - Apr 29, 2021


    r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Options Trading Thursday - Apr 29, 2021

    Posted: 29 Apr 2021 02:30 AM PDT

    This is the daily discussion, so anything stocks related is fine, but the theme for today is on stock options, but if options aren't your thing then just ignore the theme and/or post your arguments against options here and not in the current post.

    Some helpful day to day links, including news:


    Required info to start understanding options:

    • Call option Investopedia video basically a call option allows you to buy 100 shares of a stock at a certain price (strike price), but without the obligation to buy
    • Put option Investopedia video a put option allows you to sell 100 shares of a stock at a certain price (strike price), but without the obligation to sell

    See the following word cloud and click through for the wiki:

    Call option - Put option - Exercising an option - Strike price - ITM - OTM - ATM - Long options - Short options - Combo - Debit - Credit or Premium - Covered call - Naked - Debit call spread - Credit call spread - Strangle - Iron condor - Vertical debit spreads - Iron Fly

    If you have a basic question, for example "what is delta," then google "investopedia delta" and click the investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned.

    See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Palantir's new joint venture looks to tear down cancer research data silos

    Posted: 29 Apr 2021 06:52 AM PDT

    https://twitter.com/PalantirTech/status/1387764219060293649?s=20

    7:42 AM - Apr 29, 2021

    Boston-based Syntropy will create a digital platform that allows cancer researchers to share and analyze data from numerous different organizations.

    Merck KGaA, Darmstadt, and Silicon Valley-area big data company Palantir Technologies announced a joint venture that will focus on building an analytics and collaborative technology platform for cancer researchers.

    Called Syntropy, the Boston-based effort will rely on Palantir Foundry to power its data integration platform. Any research data shared across participating groups will be transparent and secure, according to the companies, with the participating institutions maintaining ownership of their data.

    "Unlocking the power of scientific data is critical to advancing the fight against cancer," Alexander Karp, Palantir cofounder and CEO, said in a statement. "Syntropy aims to help researchers collaborate securely to realize the value of this data, driving discoveries that will deliver better treatments to patients faster."

    Why it matters

    Numerous hospitals and research institutions are actively conducting cancer research, but the data they are generating is often limited to their own organization. Syntropy's collaborative platform would looks to be a collective ecosystem that houses these research data and facilitates cross-institution analyses to drive new breakthroughs in cancer research and care.

    submitted by /u/NineteenSixtySix
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    Nokia beats estimates in Q1 financial results. Up 13% in Helsinki market

    Posted: 29 Apr 2021 03:27 AM PDT

    Great results coming from Nokia!

    • EPS 0.07 EUR, up by 600% YoY
    • Operating profit up by 375% compared to Q1'20

    Report here:

    https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/04/29/2219252/0/en/Nokia-Corporation-Financial-Report-for-Q1-2021.html

    Shares in Helsinki stock exchange jumped +12% after market open and continue rising ever since.

    submitted by /u/ThreeDots3
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    PSA: During earnings season, we should look more towards the company’s actual financial performance, not the stock’s reaction

    Posted: 29 Apr 2021 05:07 AM PDT

    In the midst of the earnings season, we should be more interested in how the company is actually performing, not just staring blindly at the stock's reaction to the results.

    If a company shows good financial performance and provides positive news, you should be happy. Don't worry about the fact that the stock might be 5% down after hours, since that just usually means the positive news were already baked in. Despite the short term drop, your stock still shows that it's fundamentally strong and will provide good value in the long run.

    The stock will eventually catch up with its growth if it does lag. But you shouldn't be shocked if the stock tanks because of the quarterly reports.

    Worry more about the company than the actual stock.

    submitted by /u/juaggo_
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    Amazon Smashed Earnings Expectations

    Posted: 29 Apr 2021 01:07 PM PDT

    KEY POINTS Amazon released first-quarter results on Thursday that trounced analysts' expectations.

    Amazon shares climbed as much as 5% in extended trading Thursday after the company released its first-quarter earnings, beating Wall Street's expectations for earnings and revenue.

    Here's how the e-commerce giant fared, relative to analyst estimates compiled by Refinitiv:

    Earnings: $15.79 per share vs. $9.54 per share expected Revenue: $108.52 billion vs. $104.47 billion expected

    Few companies have benefited from the pandemic-fueled surge of online shopping as much as Amazon. The company notched record profits and revenue last year, while CEO Jeff Bezos announced earlier this month that Amazon crossed more than 200 million Prime subscribers, up from 150 million at the start of 2020.

    In 2020, Amazon invested heavily on coronavirus-related measures like safety protocols and wage increases for front-line workers. As a result of these costs, Amazon last quarter forecast operating income of $3 billion to $6.5 billion in the current period. Those coronavirus-related costs are expected to slow this year, although on Wednesday, Amazon said it would spent more than $1 billion on pay raises for more than half a million of its U.S. operations workers.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/29/amazon-amzn-earnings-q1-2021.html

    submitted by /u/astockstonk
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    UFC is confirmed for IPO - who's in?

    Posted: 29 Apr 2021 07:43 AM PDT

    Who's jumping on this train? 'Buy what you understand' UFC has been blowing up lately and I don't see any decline in popularity any time soon. How can a mere mortal like me secure some stocks early on? I've never purchased on IPO day, but the stocks seem to just catapult upwards in the opening hours every time IPO happens.

    submitted by /u/noeku1t
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    Basic Overview of the FDA Drug Approval Process

    Posted: 29 Apr 2021 05:42 AM PDT

    Welcome to Part I of my Pharma Stocks Guide. I see a lot of interest in pharmaceuticals and my goal is to provide people with a little more information so they can make an informed decision. Today's topic will be: The FDA Drug Approval Process

    The FDA Drug Approval Process can be broken down into 4 main sections: Pre-Clinical, Clinical Trials, Post Clinical, and Post Approval.

    Pre-Clinical

    1. A drug's journey begins in the lab where researchers will look at thousands of compounds and eventually select a few that they believe are promising.
    2. After gathering initial data on the compound the next step is further testing. This will be done either In Vitro (testing done in a petri dish/ test tube) or In Vivo (animal testing).
    3. After successful testing, the pharmaceutical company will submit an Investigational New Drug (IND) application to the FDA. This includes all of the data gathered so far and a plan for testing the drugs on humans (clinical trials).
    4. The FDA has 30 days to review the IND application and ensures human lives aren't at unreasonable risk. If the FDA accepts the IND, we move on to section 2 (Clinical Trials)

    Clinical trials

    5) Phase 1 studies consist of 20-100 healthy volunteers that last for several months. The exception being a drug used in cancer patients will be studied in patients with that type of cancer. The goal is to assess safety by monitoring how the drug affects the body as a whole, how long it lasts in the body, and any side effects that may appear. Results of Phase 1 studies do not indicate effectiveness. I'll repeat this because I believe it's important: results of Phase 1 studies do not indicate effectiveness. As of 2018, the FDA states roughly 70% of drugs will pass phase 1.

    6) Phase 2 studies consist of several hundreds of people with the disease/condition. Studies here typically take months- 2 years. The goal here is to observe effectiveness of the drug in the intended patient population. This is where we first get to see if the drug truly works. Safety and side effects are monitored further as well. Approximately 33% pass phase 2.

    7) FDA and pharmaceutical company meet to discuss plans for large scale Phase 3 studies

    8) Phase 3 consists of several thousands of participants. These studies typically last 1-4 years. The goal here is to continue to observe effectiveness and safety as well as seeing how different doses of the drug or in combination with other drugs affects the outcome. It is important to note that because the studies are larger and for a longer duration, the results are more likely to show long term or less common side effects. Should either happen, it almost always affects the stock negatively. Approximately 25-30% of drugs will pass Phase 3.

    Post Clinical

    9) The pharmaceutical company files a New Drug Application (NDA). The NDA tells the FDA everything about the drug up to this point. This includes Pre-Clinical data, data from all clinical trials, as well as how the drug will be manufactured, and proposed labeling.

    10) The FDA has 60 days to decide if they will accept the NDA or reject it. If accepted, the drug is now under FDA review by a review team. Each team member will review their particular portion of the NDA. For example, the medical officer reviews all clinical data, the pharmacologist reviews all Pre-Clinical data, a chemist evaluates the drug's chemical compound and stability, etc. If the NDA is rejected, the company and FDA will have to work together to resubmit a new NDA at a later date.

    11) An inspection team is sent to the manufacturing site of where the drug will be made to assess for any issues that may affect the production of the drug.

    12) After a thorough assessment of the reports from each review team member and the inspection team (typically 6-10 months), the FDA will either approve the drug or issue a Complete Response Letter (CRL) stating the drug and the application cannot be approved in its current form. This isn't the end of the drug's journey however, a company can work with the FDA and resubmit a NDA.

    Post Approval

    13) Phase 4 Clinical trials (often referred to as post marketing surveillance trial). These are studies conducted in a large scale (thousands of people) to continue to monitor the safety and efficacy of the drug after FDA approval. The company is required to send periodic updates on safety and efficacy to the FDA.

    Looking at some General Numbers

    • · From start (Preclinical research) to finish (FDA approval) a drug's journey typically takes 10 years
    • · Some studies suggest the overall chance a drug gets approved is 10%. Other studies suggest 14%.
    • · If we go by the FDA numbers, lets say we have 100 potential drugs. 70% will make it to phase 2. We now have 70 hopeful drugs and only 33% make it to phase 3. We now have 23 hopeful drugs and only 25% make it to pass phase 3. So now only 5-6 drugs have made it this far (5-6%).
    • · These numbers don't exactly match because certain drugs like say for your skin are easier to get approval than cancer drugs
    • · Regardless of which approval percentage you go with, studies show 2 common themes: The FDA drug approval percentage is low and the drug approval chance for cancer drugs is extremely low (usually around 3%). Also, fuck cancer.

    In Summary

    • Preclinical Trials: the company does lab research on the drug via petri dishes or animal testing. No humans yet.
    • IND (Investigational New Drug) application is sent to FDA. If approved we move on to clinical trials
    • Phase 1: small group of healthy volunteers. Goal to observe safety. Timeline several months. 70% pass rate
    • Phase 2: medium sized group of people with the intended disease/condition. Goal to observe safety AND efficacy. Timeline months - 2 years. 33% pass rate.
    • Phase 3: Large scale study for long duration. Goal to further assess safety and efficacy. Timeline 1-4 years. 25-30% pass rate.
    • Company then files NDA and will undergo FDA review. Hopefully approval after that.
    • Phase 4: Studies safety and efficacy of the drug after FDA approval and in a large population.
    • From start to finish, drug's typically take 10 years to make
    • The overall approval chance for a drug is quite low (10-14%)
    • Please please be careful/contain your excitement when you see positive Phase 1 results. It really doesn't mean much.

    This is a general overview of the FDA drug approval process. I hope this has been informative to some and if so, I may try to write some more quick guides in the future regarding pharmaceuticals.

    submitted by /u/CheckOutMyDoubleDs
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    Not talking about Stocks to friends and family

    Posted: 29 Apr 2021 05:06 AM PDT

    Seems like I always have this urge to mention stocks to friends and kinda regret it afterwards when they start making dumb moves. Any tips on how to refrain talking about stocks..lol ?

    I just seem that I dont know how to shut up..lol

    submitted by /u/follow-spy
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    New Schwab ETF -SCHY- Swhwab International Dividend Growth Index

    Posted: 29 Apr 2021 06:06 AM PDT

    New international etf from Schwab drops today. Expense Ratio of 0.14. Looks like a strong alternative to VXUS

    https://www.schwabassetmanagement.com/products/schy https://www.schwabassetmanagement.com/resource/schy-fact-sheet

    " The fund's goal is to track as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the total return of an index composed of high dividend yielding stocks issued by companies outside the United States. Invests in non-U.S. high dividend yielding stocks with a record of paying dividends for at least 10 consecutive years, financial strength and screened for lower volatility"

    submitted by /u/Subdued_Stallion
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    Here is a Market Recap for today Thursday, April 29, 2021

    Posted: 29 Apr 2021 01:11 PM PDT

    PsychoMarket Recap - Thursday, April 29, 2021

    Stocks hit fresh record highs as market participants considered a batch of stronger-than-expected corporate earnings reports and new proposals from President Biden aimed at revamping the US' infrastructure and supporting families, children, and students. The S&P 500 (SPY) hit a new intraday record, driven by gains in mega-cap stocks like Facebook (FB) and Apple (AAPL), both of which reported blowout earnings.

    Last night, President Biden addressed a joint session of Congress, during which he said "America was back on the move again" following the coronavirus pandemic that devastated the economy. In his address, President Biden touted his $2 trillion infrastructure plan and unveiled a new $1.8 trillion proposal aimed at supporting children, students, and families. This proposal, called the American Families Plan, would be funded in part with the newly proposed tax increases on the wealthy. Read the details of the proposal here.

    Earnings season continues to deliver blowout results, with Apple and Facebook massively outperforming analyst expectations. Facebook's stock, in particular, gapped up more than 7%. The strong results from these companies adds to a parade of mega-cap companies that have vastly outperformed estimates, driven by a surge in demand as the US economy gradually reopens thanks to effective vaccine distribution. According to FactSet, as of early Wednesday, companies comprising nearly half of the S&P 500's market capitalization had reported earnings results, with 83% of these corporations topping estimates, and by an average of 21.7%.

    Market participants also digested recent commentary from members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which included no major changes to policy but did highlight recent improvements in the US economy. FOMC members said the effective distribution of the vaccine in the US has improved economic conditions but reiterated interest rates will remain near-zero and the current pace of the asset purchasing program in place. The Fed said, "Amid progress and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have risen." The committee remains optimistic about the rebound in economic activity, describing the most affected sectors as "having shown improvement", but shows no signs of slowing quantitative easing or raising interest rates. With more than 8 million people still out of jobs compared to pre-pandemic levels, FOMC reiterated its commitment to supporting the economy.

    Highlights

    • The Labor Department released its Weekly Unemployment Report, which shows fresh pandemic-era lows as the economy gradually reopens.
      • Initial jobless claims, week ended April 24: 553,000 vs. 540,000 expected and an upwardly revised 566,000 during the prior week
      • Continuing claims, week ended April 17: 3.660 million vs. 3.590 million expected and a downwardly revised 3.651 million during the prior week
    • Shares of Uber, Lyft and Doordash (DASH) fell sharply after Reuters reported that Labor Secretary Marty Walsh supported reclassifying gig workers as employees. This change would give workers additional benefits at a large cost to companies. Recall the battle last year over Proposition 22 in California, which eventually passed in favor of companies in the gig-economy.
    • US gross domestic product (GDP) increased at a 6.4% quarter-over-quarter, seasonally adjusted annualized rate in the first three months of 2021, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said Thursday in its first estimate on GDP. This marked an acceleration from the 4.3% annualized growth rate from the fourth quarter of 2020
    • New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio said that NYC would open with full capacity beginning July 1. "Our plan is to fully reopen on July 1. We are ready for stores to open, for businesses to open, offices, theaters, full strength," de Blasio said.
    • The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) said Thursday it is auditing Boeing Co's process for making minor design changes across its product line after a 737 MAX manufacturing issue grounded dozens of planes.
    • **Please note that current stock price is written premarket and does not reflect intraday changes*\*
    • Apple (AAPL) with a host of target raises following their blowout earnings report. Consensus price target $180 at Buy. Stock currently around $137
    • Align Technology (ALGN) with two target raises. Stock currently around $615
      • Stifel Nicolaus from $650 to $750 at Buy
      • Robert W Baird from $655 to $745 at Outperform
    • DR Horton (DHI) target raised by BTIG Research from $108 to $124 at Buy. Stock currently around $100
    • Brinker International (EAT) target raised by Telsey Advisory Group from $65 to $85 at Outperform. Stock currently around $68
    • Facebook (FB) with a host of target raises following a blowout earnings report. Consensus price target $400 at Buy. Stock currently around $330
    • Fortinet (FTNT) target raised by KeyCorp from $195 to $233 at Overweight. Stock currently around $198
    • Alphabet (GOOG $GOOGL) target raised by BMO Capital Markets from $2350 to $2600 at Outperform. Stock currently around $2359
    • Olin (OLN) with two target raises. Stock currently around $42
      • KeyCorp from $50 to $53 Overweight
      • Royal Bank of Canada from $56 to $63 Outperform
    • OshKosh (OSK) with a host of target raises. Consensus price target $145 at Overweight. Stockcurrently around $128
    • Palo Alto Networks (PANW) target raised by KeyCorp from $450 to $469 at Overweight. Stock currently around $360
    • Qualcomm (QCOM) with three target raises. Stock currently around $137
      • Morgan Stanely from $167 to $173
      • Piper Sandler from $160 to $175
      • Mizuho from $170 to $175
    • Snapchat (SNAP) target raised by Morgan Stanley from $74 to $75. Stock currently around $62
    • Ultra Clean (UCTT) target raised by Stifel Nicolaus from $65 to $71 at Buy after reporting great earnings. Stock currently around $55

    "Patience is bitter, but its fruit is sweet." Aristotle

    submitted by /u/psychotrader00
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    100% of portfolio in AAPL. Is it a good idea?

    Posted: 29 Apr 2021 09:24 AM PDT

    The title basically says it all. I'm 18 years old and not super finance savvy. I've inherited a few thousand dollars and I bought a bunch of Apple shares. This summer I have a summer job and will be making about $500 per week. I plan on using every paycheck just to buy more shares. Is this a solid idea? I don't plan on needing any of the money anytime soon.

    submitted by /u/thehungrycatepillar
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    UPDATE: $HGEN (Humanigen) - Short term COVID play w/ great long term potential in CAR-T cancer therapy (and more!). 5x+ potential ROI

    Posted: 29 Apr 2021 03:50 AM PDT

    **TL;DR: Short term COVID play with great long term potential in CAR-T therapy (and more). Lenzilumab's recent P3 results cements it as the #1 current therapeutic in hospitalized COVID patients. Application submission for emergency use authorization (EUA) will come any day now (maybe today!) and cause a greater spike than when it went from $14->$29 following P3 topline data release. >5x ROI based on potential COVID sales and CAR-T implications is very possible. Great entry point currently at $18.60 (1bil market cap).

    You may or may not have seen my original post on Mar. 25 (copy and pasted below) talking about Humanigen's variant agnostic COVID drug Lenzilumab, which is primed to have a significant role in hospitalized COVID patients, CAR-T (cancer therapy), and more! Since my post, there have been plenty of positive catalysts:

    1. Humanigen released positive topline data in it's phase 3 clinical trial studying Lenzilumab in hospitalized COVID patients. Lenzilumab met the studies primary endpoint (ventilator free survival through day 28) with a 54% relative improvement in VFS over and above current standard of care (remdesevir and/or steroids). Tocilizumab, a significantly inferior (but similar - works downstream of GM-CSF) immunomodulator is currently used often in hospitalized COVID patients. It only produced a 18% relative improvement in VFS, and yet has made Roche a boatload of money and continues to be produced for COVID treatment. The drug generated 2.9bil in sales, which is a 32% increase from last year, and that increase is largely due to COVID. Simply put, this study has shown that Lenzilumab is currently the best therapeutic for hospitalized COVID patients. Next step is to file for EUA application, which will come any day now. For reference, the last COVID therapeutic (Eli lilly's baricitinib) took just over a month from topline P3 data release to EUA submission. Also, Merck's (now discontinued) COVID therapeutic was given the stop sign by the FDA approx. 20 days after P3 data release saying that they needed more data before submission. Basically, if there was an issue w/ Lenzilumab, I expect we would've heard by now. I expect successful application submission and eventual approval
    2. Humanigen reported positive phase 1b) results w/ Lenzilumab in it's CAR-T study Zuma-19. One big issue with CAR-T is its side effects - cytokine release syndrome and severe neurotoxicity. Lenzilumab prevents this, and the results of this study showed that. All 6 patients had an objective response rate (4 of them being complete), and no patients had severe CRS or NT at the recommended phase 2 dose. Given the promising results, $HGEN terminated their collaboration with KITE and plans to initiate a phase 2 study with all commercially available CD19 CAR-T therapies in diffuse large b-cell lymphoma (DLBCL).
    3. Following the Zuma news, Humanigen brought on Dr. Adrian Kilcoyne to be their CMO. Dr. Kilcoyne has a long history with big pharma (and was previously working for AstraZeneca), and has had extensive experience in CAR-T. Interestingly, he worked for Celgene corporation when they were acquired by Bristol-Myer Squibb. He oversaw the development of a DLBCL drug and was the US lymphoma CAR-T lead supporting the clinical development and launch preparation of Breyzani. Extremely bullish move for an expert in CAR-T to leave his cushy big pharma job and join Humanigen (his first small biotech company venture) following promising CAR-T clinical trial results imo.
    4. More CAR-T news: Recent Abstract released (both CEO and CSO are authors) showing CAR-T cells w/ GM-CSF knock out ameliorates CAR-T cell early activation, reduces activation-induced cell death, and enhances antitumor activity. This is good. Another article (published in nature) shows that GM-CSF knockout in CAR-T cells significantly improves side effects and maintains good efficacy: 0/3 patients exhibited neurotoxicity, and no CRS was observed in 2 patients (the third had grade 2 CRS). All 3 patients had complete responses. As I mentioned, Humanigen has a massive IP portfolio in GM-CSF neutralization, including GM-CSF knock out cells (exclusive license w/ Mayo Clinic). ARK investments believes the cellular therapy TAM is absolutely massive
    5. Eversana, one of Humanigen's partners, is actively recruiting for account manager positions across the United States for commercialization of Lenzilumab. (search on Lin$%^#%.com)
    6. Milestone payment from KPM Tech and Telcon RF Pharma (HGEN's Phillipines/Korean partner) for their successful P3 results
    7. NIH ACTIV-5 trial has added recruitment sites since release of P3 data
    8. Humanigen also announced positive phase 1 results for their solid tumor targeting drug (different drug!) Ifabotuzumab in glioblastoma. Additional studies are planned to evaluate ifabotuzumab as an antibody-drug conjugate in solid tumor patients.
    9. 8.5mil shares short as of April 15. About 25% of the float and approx. 6 days to cover given the low volume trading. Given the illiquidity, there is a bit of a short squeeze potential.
    10. The average price target of analysts for $HGEN is $34.29 ($21-$43)

    After P3 results were released Mar. 29, HGEN shot up to $29 dollars and eventually settled around $22 dollars. HGEN then had a 5m share offering at $18.50 to increase funds for manufacturing. This dilution, along with a rough downtrend for the biotech market and the susceptibility to shorting given it's low volume, HGEN fell to around $13 dollars (admittedly, I was very wrong about the response to P3 data release in my original post). It has since rebounded and is still at a great entry point at $18.60 (anything sub-20 is a steal imo), close to it's recent offering. As mentioned in my original post, Humanigen has consistently stated the goal to produce 100k doses in the next year with an approximate $1bil revenue. This doesn't include stockpiling or potential ex-US partnerships. With a current market cap of about $1bil, Humanigen can absolutely 5x their current value based on COVID sales alone, and CAR-T implications massively increases $HGEN's ceiling as a long term hold. Humanigen is also a prime buyout target and their CEO Dr. Durrant specializes in these turnarounds. Given the market response to the P3 release, I expect the successful filing of EUA application to cause an even greater spike in the $40ish+ range.

    u/weentown also posted some great DD yesterday about $HGEN: https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbetsOGs/comments/n0hhzn/hgen_humanigen_due_diligence/

    Other catalysts to watch out for: News regarding government orders of Lenzilumab, full release of P3 data in a peer-reviewed journal, ACTIV-5 updates, CAR-T updates

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Originally posted Mar. 25 on r/stocks: Humanigen ($HGEN), led by CEO Cameron Durant and CSO Dale Chappell, is a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company currently trading at $13.76 (market cap approx $740 million) that most notably makes the Anti-GM-CSF drug **Lenzilumab. It's phase 3 study for severe COVID has been completed and results will be out by end of march. With a successful phase 3 trial, Humanigen will apply and likely be granted Emergency Use authorization (EUA) for production and use of Lenzilumab

    **What is it?**: Lenzilumab is a proprietary ( +100 Patents in GM-CSF, CAR-T, CRS, GvHD) Humaneered® anti-human granulocyte macrophage-colony stimulating factor (GM-CSF) monoclonal antibody that is designed to prevent and treat an immune hyper-response called cytokine storm, a complication considered to be a leading cause of COVID-19 death. Lenzilumab targets severe COVID – patients hospitalized w/ COVID and O2 saturation <94% on room air (90% of hospitalized patients).

    **How does it work?**: GM-CSF is an inflammatory signaling protein that causes a multitude of downstream effects. Blah blah blah, the details don't matter, but what does matter is that this shit kills people with COVID. Here's a recent bombshell article from Science Immunology that shows the distinct role of GM-CSF in severe COVID-19. What's also very important is that this is produced by OUR BODIES. Not the virus. Lenzilumab doesn't target the virus – it is not susceptible to resistance from mutant strains (#variantagnostic). From the article: "GM-CSF is elevated early, scaled with severity, and is central to the inflammatory response in COVID-19."… "Our findings support therapeutic targeting of GM-CSF, as previously suggested on theoretical grounds"

    Here's another recent study that further implicated GM-CSF in COVID: Journal of Leukocyte Biology. From the article: "Our findings fully support the emerging notion that GM‐CSF might be a key feature of SARS‐CoV‐2‐induced cytokine storm in COVID‐19 patients"

    **Does it work?**: We will find out soon. The company consistently stated Phase 3 results will be released by end of March. 60 days from last date of patient enrollment will be Mar. 29, and with some secondary endpoints being at the 60 day mark, I would not be surprised if data is released on the Monday. Until that day comes, there has been a lot of evidence suggesting that it will be successful. I've already talked about GM-CSF and studies implicating it's involvement and role in severe COVID lung pathology, and here's more:

    1. Open-label study published by the Mayo Clinic30989-7/fulltext) --> Study showed Clinical Improvement (defined as improvement of at least 2 points on the 8-point ordinal clinical endpoints scale) in 11 of 12 (91.7%) patients treated with lenzilumab and 22 of 27 (81.5%) untreated patients. The time to clinical improvement was significantly shorter for the lenzilumab-treated group compared with the untreated cohort with a median of 5 days versus 11 days (P=.006)
    2. An interim analysis of HGEN's Phase 3 RCT (NCT04351152) showed promising results – with a 37% increase in recovery rate at Day 28 vs. Standard of care treatment. Study size (small sizes being an issue w/ many COVID therapeutics thus far) was increased to help maintain power of the study at 90% based on these results. Source.
    3. Otilimab – a drug from $GSK that also targets GM-CSF – recently failed their Phase 3 study. How is that good? Well, despite it being severely underdosed (single 90mg dose w/ shorter half life vs. 1800mg total dose of lenzilumab w/ longer half life) and including patients already on mechanical ventilation (further in disease course), they STILL proved statistical significance in their age 70+ group of patients. Lenzliumab has approx.. 45% of their patients age 65+ (which have a 35-80x risk of hospitalization and 1100-7900x risk of death compared to adolescents as per CDC) as per their interim phase 3 report as compared to 22% in the otilimab trial. The increased dose, greater drug half-life, and better patient population bodes very well for Lenzilumab's chance of success
    4. Here's a recent bullish letter to the editor from [Mayo Clinic]: "Aware of the good safety profile of lenzilumab in this current study and previous analysis, the treatment is feasible and safe and the ongoing randomized phase III trial will extensively confirm the lymphocyte recovery in SARS-CoV-2 infection and the impact of the drug on coronavirus disease 2019 clinical improvement"
    5. ACTIV-5 / Big Effect Trial (BET-B) for the Treatment of COVID (NCT04583969): Funded and selected by the NIH – this studies Lenzilumab combined with Remdesvir for the treatment of COVID. Not hard evidence of lenzilumab's efficacy, but evidence that Lenzilumab has showed enough promise to warrant being chosen for such a trialCompetition- There is none right now. All COVID therapeutics that target severe COVID have been dropping like flies. It's all for the taking if this phase 3 study succeeds and Emergency Use approval Is granted

    COVID – getting worse: As many of you might've heard, COVID isn't going away. In fact, there are multiple new variants that are more infectious, more deadly, and more resistant to current vaccinations. Across the globe, COVID cases are rising again and certain areas are being hit especially hard. CTV news article re: India w/ it's new double mutant variant, CNN re: Europe dealing with a surge in cases, and global news re: Brazil hitting record number COVID cases, to name a few. New COVID cases in the US remain pretty low, but between lax restriction and the rise of variant strains as this nature article shows, we could be seeing another wave in the US as well. How deadly are these new strains? Still much to be learned, but it's looking like current vaccines leave a lot to be desired. Here's a study from the New England Journal of Medicine, which studied viral neutralization of some new variants w/ our current vaccines (refer to Table 1). $PFE has decreased (in vitro) efficacy by 2x, 6.7x, <6.5x vs. B117, P1, 501YV2 variants. $MRNA vaccine has decreased efficacy by 1.8x, 4.5x, <8.6xGoogle cases worldwide and you will see the # of new COVID cases/day have started to rise after hitting a trough in mid-Feb. Between COVID fatigue and places easing restrictions and the new variants mentioned above, COVID is here to stay and will be for years to come. Here's an article from nature, which talks about COVID being a endemic virus that we will be dealing with on a year to year basis. Unfortunately, the market is huge for #lenzilumab

    Partnerships

    1. Humanigen was the only micro cap company chosen for Operation Warp Speed (an initiative to facilitate and accelerate the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics) -> Source. Humanigen in collaboration with BARDA to increase manufacturing capacity
    2. License agreement with KPM Tech/Telcon RF Pharamceutical company for Lenzilumab production in South Korea and the Phillipines. [Source]
    3. Partnership with Thermo Fisher to scale up manufacturing. [Source]
    4. Partnership with Emergent Biosolutions for development and manufacturing. [Source]
    5. Partnership w/ Avid Bioservices for manufacturing agreement. [Source]
    6. Not a partnership, but $HGEN recently announced an $80million loan w/ Hercules Capital on Mar. 10 to support manufacturing and commercialization. Bullish move close to P3 data release imo. [Source]

    TL;DR - lots of partnerships and agreements in place for manufacturing if EUA approval granted

    The Market: Here's a PDF PowerPoint of $HGEN corporate presentation: Humanigen. The whole presentation gives a great overview of the company and I recommend a look through, but skip to slide 18 and you can get a rough sense of the market potential. There are 3 sources of incomes:

    1. Stockpiling – US and ex-US
    2. US market
    3. Outside the US market

    US market: Conservative estimates from the company believes there will be 1,000,000+ hospitalizations in the US this year, with approximately 100,000 patients as a market for Lenzilumab treatment. At 10k per dose, an approximate 1bil of revenue is up for the takingOutside the US market:

    1. The market is there with cases numbers rising across the globe
    2. Humanigen has been in discussion with ex-US governments already about production of lenzilumab (skip to 24:00 on the Mar 16 fireside chat webcast)

    Price forecasting:Conservative estimates from the company project 100k doses for the US alone in 2021 if given EUA approval. This gives approximate revenue of 1bil. This doesn't include any non-US sales or stockpiling.With positive phase 3 trial data, I see the price share easily shooting up to 50-60+. The next step would be applying for Emergency Use Approval, with acceptance likely if P3 study is successful. If granted, and going by the very conservative estimate of $1billion in revenue, I think $HGEN's market cap will easily be $5bil+, giving it a PPS of roughly $100+

    BONUS -> HIGH SHORT INTEREST: $HGEN short interest has almost doubled from Feb 26->Mar 15!!!. Yahoo finance estimates a 26% short interest as of Mar 15 w/ a Short ratio of 4.12 given the stock's low trading volume. With the recent drop in price the past couple days, I would not be surprised if this number was higher. TL;DR -> more fuel for the rocket ships

    BONUS BONUS – CAR-T implications and more:

    Lenzilumab is a cytokine storm drug, not a COVID drug. It is also in a phase 1b/2 study (ZUMA-19) where it is paired w/ a CAR-T drug Yescarta (by $GILD) for the treatment of relapsed/refractory Large B-Cell lymphoma. Car-T therapy is basically genetically engineered T-cells that can target a specific protein, or cancer. The main issue with CAR-T therapy is that it has significant side effects via cytokine storm and neurologic toxicity. Early studies have already shown that Lenzilumab significantly reduces cytokine storm side effects in CAR-T and actually IMPROVES overall efficacy. The readout for this study is planned for this year and there is precedent for CAR-T FDA approval based on phase 2 studies. I don't have the energy to go into detail so I will leave it at that, but this has HUGE long term possibilities and gives $HGEN significant long term value outside of COVID

    **Edit to expand on CAR-T a bit more: I don't want to downplay this, I think it's very promising and I'm very bullish on it, but I'm admittedly not as researched on the minutia and writing up covid stuff tired me out XD. There's 3 main players in the Car-T space and Lenzilumab (which has the patent for preventing Cytokine storm and neurotoxicity related to T cell therapy) could be the missing piece to make this therapy safer. $GILD had dropped another anti-GM-CSF drug from $KNSA and decided to go ahead with just lenzilumab, as well.

    Lenzilumab also is in a phase 2/3 study for preventing/treating acute GvHD and also CMML phase 2.

    $HGEN also has ifabotuzumab, a drug for treating solid tumors, which is currently in phase 1

    **TL;DR: Short term covid play w/ ++high upside (potential 5-10x ROI) and high short-interest w/ long term CAR-T potential.*\*

    Imo, $HGEN is a very appealing short term, high risk phase 3 COVID trial play with extremely high reward. With successful P3 studies, I see the PPS skyrocketing to 60+ and w/ EUA to 100+ (5bil+ market cap) as a conservative estimate. With stockpiling and ex-USA partnerships, the PPS will soar past 100 and w/ CAR-T the potential is even greater. Of course, the downside is a failed trial and price plummets to around $6 I think. Given the stocks low float and low trading volume, it is very volatile and subject to easy price manipulation. It has dropped approx. 25% the past month down to $13.76 and is extremely appealing at this price range. There is downside, but the upside is much much greater.

    POSITION: 1250 @ $16.30

    submitted by /u/Godszn
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    UFC stock in the market ( EDR)

    Posted: 29 Apr 2021 08:38 AM PDT

    I have just notified that UFC has shares in the market and start with $24, I'm wondering if anyone has any thought about investing on this new stock. I have no information about it but I know usually new stocks go up so fast then fall. cheers.

    submitted by /u/Willing_Inspector_92
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    PaySafe $PSFE sign multi-year agreement with Amazon Web Services

    Posted: 29 Apr 2021 09:49 AM PDT

    https://ibsintelligence.com/paysafe-signs-multi-year-agreement-with-amazon-web-services/

    This could be a catalyst in kick starting the 'Tech Growth Stock' status.

    Payments platform Paysafe has signed a global multi-year agreement with Amazon Web Services in a bid to become a fully cloud-based payments provider. Paysafe is migrating its broad portfolio of workloads, including eCash solutions, paysafecard and Paysafecash, and its digital wallets, Skrill and NETELLER, to AWS to develop new cloud-native merchant payment and consumer wallet products for its business and consumer customers.

    submitted by /u/JiggazInParis
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    Can we please give just a brief description of a stock, or maybe even just the name, before talking about it at length?

    Posted: 28 Apr 2021 04:34 PM PDT

    Hi! I've seen some company's analysis which are great, but I have to get out of the app and search the stock's name in order to understand it.

    They usually start something like:

    "Here's my analysis of $WXYZ. They are deeply undervalued because of the headwinds it's industry is experiencing. Their moat is really strong, as none of their competitors have as loyal customers as WXYZ……"

    The post might go for so long without even giving you a hint of what the company does or sells, who are their competitors, etc.

    I do not mean to single someone out, but this was the first example I found. If you don't know what company this is, how far into the post would you find out?

    I have no problem for the FAANGs, and even for GME, but please don't assume everyone is an expert on a niche field.

    Edit:

    More examples I added in a comment below.. again, not trying to single out anyone.. just examples I found.

    Quick and simple explanation of ARNC in the first paragraph (copy pasted, I suppose)

    One sentence used to describe Whitbread PLC

    They describe the company quickly and succinctly.

    Now….

    MAXN is a company that has been public since 9 months ago. By this I mean "many people are not familiar with it"

    Now, check this post. If you don't look at the link, would you know what does MAXN does?

    Compare it with this post's first 6 words...

    submitted by /u/probablysitting
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    What do People Have Against Ford

    Posted: 29 Apr 2021 06:52 AM PDT

    What do people have against Ford, I find that Ford is the punching bag of the auto industry, for example today fords stock is down almost 10% based off of the bad semiconductor news, but all their earnings expectations were hit out of the park! All these other car manufacturing company's are hit by the bad news but not nearly as hard and I'm genuinely curious why that is. For some reason people have undeniably bias opinions on cars that don't take into consideration anything about the company, for example there are people that like GM trucks and people that like Ford trucks based on their own personal opinions, and In my opinion this translates to the stock market and people will refuse to invest in a stock based on their personal view of the company and car instead of actually looking at fundamentals and doing DD.

    submitted by /u/Johnnyinvests
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    Ups and Downs

    Posted: 29 Apr 2021 11:13 AM PDT

    This may seem obvious to some people but just a helpful hint for those starting out. The market has ups and downs like all things. If you are interested in a stock watch it for a while before buying and be patient. You will see the low end of the fluctuations and high end. Once you've got an idea of what the low end is wait for a red day and buy in for the best value. Also, if you did impulse buy on the high end don't forget you can always add more on a red day to average down your cost 😊 or just wait for a green day and sell and wait for a red day to buy back in. In the grand scheme I'm still a noob myself so don't rip me apart for stating the obvious but I feel some people starting out could use this advice.

    Edit: I don't recommend averaging down unless you truly believe in the stock and have done your DD. Volatile stocks are always a gamble. This advice mainly applies to stock that is relatively stable.

    submitted by /u/b0nsaib0y
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    What industry do you work in and how does that influence your investment choices?

    Posted: 29 Apr 2021 08:15 AM PDT

    I work in pharma, particularly on the instrument maintenance side. Chromatography, mass specs, incubators etc. I work with a lot of vendors and have made some investment choices based on my experiences. Agilent, Avantor and thermo are my main longterm holds in the sector. I'm a chromatography fanboy and Agilent is the gold standard (would do shimadzu if not for foreign taxes), avantor has a unique spot in the industry with vwr, and thermo is just an all encompassing monster that generates a healthy income while still investing heavily into r&d and is also expanding into clinical trial services.

    Basically, for most other sectors I couldn't begin to choose one stock over the other based on any personal experience. I've been looking into HVAC stocks and can't tell you the difference between Honeywell, carrier and trane for example. My decisions would be based on fundamentals and buy/hold/sell analyses. I made a post here and it was interesting to hear people in the fields' opinions and other suggestions.

    So anyway, I think working in an industry gives a unique perspective outside of fundamentals and investor sentiment, so I'm just interested in what other people here think about companies in their respective fields.

    submitted by /u/carlyslayjedsen
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    You can buy UFC (IPO

    Posted: 29 Apr 2021 10:15 AM PDT

    UFC is officially a public company.

    It's called endeavor group (EDR)

    They are up 2% on the first trading day

    I personally think if you buy this at the right price then you have alot of growth in the future. Boxing is going downhill and MMA is going up and it's going to be like this because UFC are doing amazing things they have big matches on almost every month.

    If you buy UFC your basically buying a sport. They basically have almost all MMA fans eyes on them and top fighters want to join the promotion and fight for them because they pay the most. As long as MMA is growing UFC will also grow.

    Edit**

    Guys a quick disclaimer the sport is quite popular and it's growing but if you look at the financials it doesn't look so great.

    Here's a article analysing the financials by Forbes

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2021/04/28/another-overvalued-ipo-endeavor-group/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

    submitted by /u/royalshah10
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    Want to outperform the market?

    Posted: 29 Apr 2021 05:30 AM PDT

    Just own AAPL, FB, MSFT, AMZN, and GOOG

    This earnings week is a massive reminder that investors love to overcomplicate the stock market. All these fund managers/money managers that go on CNBC and give their micro/macro view and trying to explain what's going on is just an attempt to make you think markets are more complicated than they are. The dominance of these companies was pretty much obvious 5 years ago, and if you had just held these 5 companies, you would have outperformed the S&P 500 and 90% of all Wall Street hedge funds.

    Summary: Don't overcomplicate. Own the obvious. These stocks are still good investments.

    submitted by /u/BenDoverR8Now
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    Thoughts on PTON as it lingers below 100

    Posted: 29 Apr 2021 09:35 AM PDT

    Just my opinion, and I would love to hear other thoughts.

    Earnings will be a significant driver of price movement in the short term (duh). I remain bullish on the stock in the next 1-2 years based on the loyalty of PTON's user base and the likelihood of continued pandemic restrictions being adhered to by a significant portion of the population, making gyms seem less appealing. Also, the continued liquidity being pumped into the middle class will allow folks to reach for a PTON product instead of a cheaper alternative.

    The thing to watch out for is if there is ANY public talent (instructor) attrition, especially among Tread+ or Bike instructors. If they start hemorrhaging that talent, I'm moving to sell pretty quickly. The bigger the name, the bigger the issue. Generally though, their instructors are the secret sauce and make that recurring revenue story stick.

    submitted by /u/resolute
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    How do you combat DCA inflation anxiety when considering where to invest new cash?

    Posted: 29 Apr 2021 01:13 PM PDT

    I try to deposit to my personal investment account frequently when I have extra cash available (most of cash goes to my IRA and 401k get monthly deposits that go into total market funds and such).

    One issue I have pretty much all the time is nervousness about purchasing more shares of an existing position due to having previously gotten a really good price for that position.

    For example, my average cost per share of MSFT is 171.18. At time of post, MSFT is trading at ~252. I have some cash to invest but am hesitant to do so because I want to keep my avg CPS lower. I think it's a good buy at the decent price, but am so addicted to that 171 number I can't pull the trigger.

    Anybody else run into this psychological stumbling block? How do you deal with it.

    submitted by /u/skwirly715
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    CLASSIC headline from Marketwatch after Apple OBLITERATES estimates.

    Posted: 28 Apr 2021 05:37 PM PDT

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/apples-mac-is-back-with-record-sales-but-how-long-can-that-last-11619655744?mod=mw_latestnews

    Tale as old as time.

    Whatever Apple does, it's not enough. No bit of brilliance in their sales, marketing, or "just one more thing" products seemingly can ever overcome the handwringers and "what if"-ers who get paid to pass along their nonsense opinions.

    It's been happening for YEARS.

    "Why isn't Apple buying Netscape/AOL/Palm/Blackberry/Tesla/Netflix/Disney?"

    "Have they lost their innovation edge?" "Has Steve Jobs run out of ideas?" "Can Tim Cook ever get 1/10th as brilliant and strategic as Steve?" and on and on and on. So yea, Marketwatch reporter, Apple had blow-out, call-your-mom, oh-holy-sh*t did you see that kinda earnings.

    I. Think. Apple. Will. Be. Fine.

    submitted by /u/VariationAgreeable29
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    Favorite gold and real estate stocks?

    Posted: 29 Apr 2021 09:43 AM PDT

    I keep hearing about how there's going to be huge levels of inflation and how because of all the money pumped into the market this past year, there's gonna be a crash. I've also seen that assets such as the ones mentioned in the title tend to do well under these conditions so I figured that I could start thinking about diversifying.

    submitted by /u/Mattyboii6969
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