Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread Investing |
- Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread
- Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.
- Lessons from the December 2018 market correction, when the SP500 and NASDAQ dumped more than -20% (by intraday measures) from all time highs
- The Relationship between Stocks and Interest Rates
- Palantir is the best long run $PLTR
- Jobless claims: Another 745,000 Americans filed new unemployment claims
- Lemonade Diligence Post - DON'T Buy the Dip
- Undervalued solar power stock MAXN. Has fallen 50% the past few weeks.
- Unrealistic Expectations 2021
- ARK comparison to Janus 20
- Vital Farms (VITL) DD - A non-tech growth play
- Psychedelic stocks: microdosing turns out to be placebo effect in largest ever trial
- Square acquires majority stake in Tidal
- UWM CEO issues ultimatum, escalates war against Rocket Companies
- Deep Value: Magnachip Semiconductor MX - $280MM Net Cash, Owner of a $250MM Semi Fab and Sells Chips for OLED/5G Phones
- List of primary and secondary ETFs for tax loss harvesting
- DD - Why CRSR is an amazing steal at this price (+ short squeeze)
- Crypto purchases do not trigger IRS reporting
- Calculating Equity Risk Premium for S&P500
- $ASO DD Criminally Undervalued DD
- BJ wholesale club (BJ) doubles profit
- $OXY $OLN $GE $ABB what do they have in common...
- Head Mounted Display (HMD) Market Size is Projected to Explode and Reach USD 18.4 Billion by 2026
- MTBC- Why Are they Showing a Decrease in The Cash Flow Statement in Accounts Payable If Their Accounts Payable and Accrued Expenses Went up....
| Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread Posted: 05 Mar 2021 02:01 AM PST Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here! This thread is for:
Keep in mind that this subreddit, and this thread, is not an appropriate venue for questions that should be directed towards your broker's customer support or google. If you would like to ask a question about your personal situation or if you are asking for advice please keep these posts in the daily advice thread as that thread is more well suited for those questions. Any posts that should be comments in this thread will likely be removed. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||
| Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Posted: 05 Mar 2021 02:00 AM PST If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our side bar also has useful resources. Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 04 Mar 2021 05:32 PM PST I wonder if anyone here remembers the market 'crash' in December 2018. Pundits blamed the market plunge on Fed hiking rates, the 'china trade war', and fears of economic slowdown. But recall that 1) the market recovered in a V shape days after December ended, without the Fed deciding to reverse course on the rate hike, 2) that the market was unfazed by trade war headlines nearly all year long, and 3) the economic growth data remained incredibly positive and strong. The December 2018 drop was irrational. This look back at recent history goes to show how irrational markets can be and it is up to us to take advantage. For today:
I think there are two solid conclusions: 1) This is not a bear market happening before our eyes. It's a correction and buying the dip is the likely right move. An overall selloff right now, is irrational, just like in December 2018, with the exception of growth stocks that are very overvalued especially in the context of rising yields. 2) No one can predict how deep this correction goes, but it would be prudent to buy the dip on cyclicals, financials, and growth stocks that are already undervalued Please also note that the SP500 is now so heavily weighted to the top market cap growth tech stocks like FANG, that a 10% correction in them will require 90% increase in the bottom 100 stocks of the SP500 to avoid a fall. So the best way to increase your portfolio CAGR may not be to simply buy the dip in the SP500 index, but rather choosing the above sectors or stocks that avoid this weighting. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||
| The Relationship between Stocks and Interest Rates Posted: 04 Mar 2021 10:53 AM PST I've seen a lot of misunderstanding across about the effect of rates on equities, so I figure I'd hop off of WSB to give an explainer about the relationship between stocks and interest rates, and show why the current sell off makes sense. Where do interest rates come from? Money has time value. Money today is usually worth more today than money tomorrow. How do we measure the time value of money? Interest! When we loan money out, we demand a return. What goes into an interest rate? There are 3 primary factors:
US Treasuries: King of Bonds So US government debt is considered primo with near 0 risk of default. The rates on US government debt determines whats known as the risk free rate. The US issues debt at several different maturities from weeks, to months, to years. If we line up these interest rates, we get what is known as the yield curve. To reiterate, these rates are determined by the market and are manipulated by the Federal Reserve, which attempts to intervene in the market to get rates to its targets. When the Fed comes out and says it wants rates to stay near zero, this one of the ways they do it. And this is exactly what happened during the corona crash, interest rates went to zero across the curve. How to Value a Company Let's say we have two companies. $BRR and $GRO. Let's say we're certain of their future cash flows.
How do we value these two companies based on cash flow alone? For simplicity, let's only look at the first 10 years. We need to determine the present value of the money the company makes in the future. What is money from n years from now worth today? money / (1 + risk_free_rate)^n. So we can represent todays value for 10 years of cash flow like this: Value = ($$$ Year 1) / (1 + r) + ... + ($$$ Year 10) / (1 + r)^10 This is one of the ways to come to an intrinsic valuation of a company. How Rates Affect Value So which company do you think is worth more? BRR or GRO. Well that depends on the interest rate! Let's say interest rates are at 0 or near zero. Their valuations taking no other factors into account are nearly the same: $100M. Now let's start cranking up the interest rate slowly to see what the current valuation is.
As interest rates go up, the company that depends more on future earnings (GRO) is getting whacked. A move 0% to 2% knocks off almost 20% in one shot. SPECIAL NOTE: The risk free rate is actually extremely low right now, around 0.05% due to Fed intervention. With the move in the 5 and 10 year, the market is likely anticipating an acceleration much sooner than expected. So why the fuss all of a sudden? Stocks went flying higher under the assumption that the fed would remain dovish, work to keep interest rates low, and would not be able to produce inflation over 2% if it wanted to. For a lot of reasons, people were betting that if that inflation would appear any were it would happen farther out in time near the 30Y. Given they figured the 5Y would stay low, and the 30Y would go high they shorted the 30Y bonds and went long 5Y. However, 5Y and 10Y treasury yields suddenly spiked making everyone ask whether inflation would come sooner and faster. People hoped the fed wold say something to alleviate this, but instead Powell had stated in September that he's fine with inflation running hot over 2% (which no one seems to have believed) , and the fed today reiterated its not going to do anything about it in the short run. Hence, yields are still rising and equities are continuing to fall. Add to this all the froth and speculation, a 20-30% correction makes a lot of sense in overheated names. Caveats about the analysis above
Inflation! Waddabout gold? If treasury yields stay above inflation, gold prices fall. That's because it's better to own a sheet of paper with a yield than a rock. Gold will only benefit if the Fed works to suppress rates farther out on the curve. This is why the price of gold is negatively correlated with real interest rates. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||
| Palantir is the best long run $PLTR Posted: 04 Mar 2021 09:55 PM PST TL, DR: $PLTR is a huge long play and the company has its toes dipped in essentially every single industry. Here are some fundamentals: market cap 44.6bn, 2020 revenue 1.1bn (482m from commercial, 618m from the government), and consistent earnings beat. In 2020, their revenue increased by 47% and they signed 21 contracts during Q4 2020 (21 in 13 weeks = avg 2 contracts a week last quarter) and they are working with 8 companies of Fortune 100, 12 of Global 100, and 24 of Global 300 (LARGE potential growth in the future). From 2019 to 2020 they increased their revenue from the commercial sector by 107%. This is very important as the commercial sector is where they will profit from the most. Palantir currently has two products Gotham and Foundry, with Gotham being used mostly by the US government and Foundry is for the commercial sector. Essentially these two software work by integrating with the customer's existing system and simulating different operational models and outcomes for different decisions that the customer makes. To me, this technology is revolutionary as proven by how unpredictable the state of the world economy is right now. A few of the big names that are working with them now is IBM, PG&E, BP, and many hedge funds and banks, and a big one recently is a 31m contract with NHS England where they are working to handle vaccine allocation (this is significant as the UK is facing a historically tough recession) They have been consistently working with the US government on multiple contracts using Gotham, from finding bin Laden to verifying Iran's nuclear presence in 2018. Palantir is one of the four institutions that were given DoD IL-5 and on their way to DoD IL-6, to give you a scale Google is DoD IL-2 and Oracle is DoD IL-4, meaning they are responsible for handling extremely sensitive information for the DOD, their most recent contract is project Maven. Essentially Palantir is the CIA's AI twin. Looking back at the fundamentals, especially with the P/S ratio of over 40 right now, it can be overpriced to get in. But in the near future, PLTR will be the best stock to hold for 5+ years as the sky is their limit. Edit: forgot to put my position 300 @24.9 [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||
| Jobless claims: Another 745,000 Americans filed new unemployment claims Posted: 04 Mar 2021 05:39 AM PST From the article:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/weekly-jobless-claims-week-ended-february-27-183810049.html [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||
| Lemonade Diligence Post - DON'T Buy the Dip Posted: 04 Mar 2021 09:45 AM PST Hi Everyone, below is a post about Lemonade, which has fallen 30%+ over the past few days. There's a lot of hype around the stock, but based on my diligence, I think investors should not buy the dip. Q4 2020 Financial Results - The Good Stuff
Q4 2020 Financial Results - The Bad Stuff
What I Think Lemonade's Stock Price Should Be
TLDR: LMND is growing impressively but has terrible unit economics and valuation is far too ahead of itself (even with the recent dip). [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||
| Undervalued solar power stock MAXN. Has fallen 50% the past few weeks. Posted: 04 Mar 2021 03:57 PM PST Maxeon Solar Technologies split off from Sunpower a couple years ago, with Maxeon being the global producer and Sunpower being the US producer and distributor. Onto the valuation: they have a market cap of about 1b with revenue of 1.2b in 2019, about 900m TTM because of the pandemic (from now on im primarily gonna reference 2019 stats since it seems unfair to use 2020). Gross profit improved from -104M to -8.4M 2018-19, net income improved from -603M to -183M. They have about 2.1 price to book value. The valuations are okay but what really makes the difference here is their products. They make the highest efficiency and lowest degrading solar panels in the world, and are looking to move into the microinverters, energy storage and even services industries in the next few years with a partnership with Enphase Energy. As well as this i believe their core panel production business will continue to expand rapidly as it has done, with a CAGR of 28.1% compared to industry's 19.5%. Being in such a quickly growing industry, and the leader in quality, you'd expect them to have a much higher market cap. This is due to them making a loss the past few years, but i believe they'll soon swing to profitability and see a massive increase in stock price when that happens. If you don't like investing in currently unprofitable companies, try Canadian Solar $CSIQ and JinkoSolar JKS. Both down 45% ish and with low P/e ratios. Personally, i'll be splitting my money relatively evenly between the three to hedge my bets and capitalise on the rapid growth of solar globally regardless. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 05 Mar 2021 01:08 AM PST Do you expect your portfolio to constantly go up 20% every year? If you don't, why do corrections cause you panic and fear? Stocks go up, stocks go down. Sometimes, stocks go way down. No need to frown and make your panties turn brown. Don't get bamboozled by promises of rockets and moons. There will be crash landings eventually or soon. I know it sucks joining the party late, and losing all that you stake. Remember 2018, 2015, and 2008... They were bitter medicines a lot of people ate. So stay objective and keep watching that interest rate. Manage your risks and research... Not speculations... And check your unrealistic expectations... [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 04 Mar 2021 09:26 PM PST
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-07/is-ark-the-new-janus-twenty?sref=SHutwLY8 [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||
| Vital Farms (VITL) DD - A non-tech growth play Posted: 04 Mar 2021 05:38 PM PST OverviewVital Farms is a certified B-Corp focused on ethically growing pasture raised eggs and butter. They do this by partnering with roughly 200 family farms that share the mentality of putting the welfare of the animals before anything else and engaging in sustainable farming practices. All of the farms are located in "The Pasture Belt", an area notorious for favorable weather all year long. Management and employee satisfactionThe company was founded by Matt O'Hayer in 2007. He is the founder and former president of the Organic Egg Farmers of America and is still the Executive Chairman and Director of Vital Farms. The current CEO is Russell Diez-Canseco. Previous work experience includes McKinsey & Company, H-E-B Grocery, and the Central Intelligence Agency (he also has an MBA from Harvard University). Other senior management members have extensive experience in the food industry. The company has a 4.2 rating on Glassdoor (50 reviews), 88% approval of the CEO and the reviews highlight the employees alignment and motivation with the company's ethical mission. A few reviews complain about managers (not uncommon on Glassdoor) and about the company's culture. Industry and competitionVital Farms is active in the highly-competitive and fragmented US food industry with a focus on retail consumers and a few partnerships with restaurants. Notable competitors include Cal-Maine Foods (NASDAQ: CALM), Rose Care Farms and other major US egg producers. Moats and competitive advantagesVital Farms differentiates itself from competitors by focusing on the ethical side of the production and farming of its eggs and dairy products. Customers and reviewers claim the products are of higher quality and of greater taste due to the production approach they're taking. Customer reviews and satisfaction is extremely high (their standard egg carton has a 4.9 out of 5 rating on Amazon based on 5,985 reviews with customers praising the premium quality). Although their eggs are pricier than competitors, consumers haven't been minding shelling out the difference for the premium quality. Their marketing is unique and exceptional amongst competitors. To exemplify a part of this, they allow buyers to check out the farm where their eggs were laid in a 360 degree video to see if it's up to snuff and they have a reward program for filling up a "pasture passport" with the names of 10 different farms. Their branding and packaging is also really strong and although it is still a small company, it is starting to show strong brand loyalty among its consumers (a significant percentage of first-time buyers during the COVID-19 pandemic became repeat buyers according to the CEO). Although the company does not have a truly strong moat at the moment, in my opinion they're well on their way to building themselves one by the customer loyalty they're amassing and the network of small farms they're building. Areas of growthThe company has been willing and adventurous when it comes to expanding their product line into sub-products (Egg bites, hard boiled eggs, liquid whole eggs) and completely new segments (butter). A natural next-step for the company at this point, in my opinion, would be to expand their dairy products further (milk, cream, etc.) to tap into other large markets. Partnerships with large restaurant chains willing to back sustainable farming practices could also be a catalyst for growth. One could argue there is also potential internationally for Vital Farms, but I believe this is very far-off the current road-map. Potential headwindsAs previously mentioned, the industry they operate in is highly fragmented and it's unlikely Vital Farms will own a majority of market share in their segment. The egg and dairy industry is also notoriously smaller and has a lower CAGR than other high-flying fast-growing industries, so Vital Farm's TAM and market cap growth is capped unless they manage to go international successfully or tap into new product and revenue streams. Institutional and insider ownership, short interest
- Total % of outstanding shares held by insiders: 44%. Important to note that the CEO does not own any shares and is apparently on a stock-based compensation program.
EarningsFrom the latest earning report:
Balance Sheet
Valuation metrics
Principal financial metrics of closest competitorNASDAQ: CALM
Price actionVital Farms went public on July 31st 2020 and currently sits 36.84% below its 52-week high. It traded sideways after it's IPO and has been declining since November 2020. Important to note that the current price held fairly well amongst the recent growth stock correction (only declining ≈ 8.5% from its February peak). Conclusion
Disclaimer: I'm long Vital Farms and have a position of 3,636 shares at an average cost of $27.50 as of the time of this writing. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||
| Psychedelic stocks: microdosing turns out to be placebo effect in largest ever trial Posted: 05 Mar 2021 03:05 AM PST Seen a lot of hype recently about psychedelic stocks. While there is a lot of evidence for treating addiction and other conditions, a new study out of the Imperial College Centre for Psychedelic Research has shown that microdoing is likely to be just a placebo effect. "Our findings confirmed some of the beneficial psychological effects of microdosing from anecdotal reports and observational studies, such as improved sense of wellbeing and life satisfaction. "But we see the same improvements among participants taking placebos. This suggests that the improvements may not be due to the pharmacological action of the drug but can instead be explained by the placebo effect." While this doesn't directly effect of lot of companies, I think this will go some way to lowering expectations about wider adoption of LSD/psilocybin as nootropics. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||
| Square acquires majority stake in Tidal Posted: 04 Mar 2021 06:20 AM PST "Square is acquiring a majority ownership stake in TIDAL through a new joint venture, with the original artists becoming the second largest group of shareholders, and JAY-Z joining the Square board. Why would a music streaming company and a financial services company join forces?!? It comes down to a simple idea: finding new ways for artists to support their work. New ideas are found at the intersections, and we believe there's a compelling one between music and the economy. Making the economy work for artists is similar to what Square has done for sellers." -JACK [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||
| UWM CEO issues ultimatum, escalates war against Rocket Companies Posted: 04 Mar 2021 03:13 PM PST CEO is out for blood vs Rocket Companies and Fairway in the wholesale pending arena. Will be interesting to see what happens with this. They follow Rocket in the retail space but have a sizeable lead against them in wholesale space. "Ishbia said he is giving brokers until March 15 to sign an agreement pledging to stop working with Rocket or Fairway. Those who continue working with those two competitors can no longer work with UWM. Full article: https://www.freep.com/story/money/business/2021/03/04/united-wholesale-mortgage-ultimatum-rocket-companies/4578357001/ [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 04 Mar 2021 07:09 PM PST AND the company recently is rumored to be for sale About
Currently MX stock is at $21 a share with $6 net cash on balance sheet (that's right, 1/3 of market cap is in cash). MX also owns a 8" or 200 mm (diameter) wafer manufacturing plant that produces 30k wafers per month, soon to be in the 45-50k wpm range. This is one of the hottest assets as there is a global shortage of 200mm manufacturing space. Global semiconductor shortage spurs run on vintage chipmaking tools
Enter MX with its Fab 3 8". Comparable transactions are listed here and values MX's foundry at >$250mm. The business of producing OLED devices and power integrated circuits also generates $60-65mm of EVITDA in 2021 given the sharp growth profile. For Sale: " A source from the investment banking industry said many foreign firms – mostly U.S. and Chinese capital - have already expressed their interest and set up meetings with local securities and accounting firms to ready due diligence " At an EV/EBITDA multiple of 15x would imply an equity value of $1.3 billion, up from its current market cap of ~800mm. There is also downside protection from its $280mm in cash and >$250mm in foundry assets that don't appear on its PP&E given heavily depreciated. (and before any business earnings). [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||
| List of primary and secondary ETFs for tax loss harvesting Posted: 04 Mar 2021 09:24 PM PST This is a list of 50 or so ETFs spanning different asset classes that will allow you to take advantage of tax loss harvesting. It has alternative funds for each listed ETF so you can sell and immediately buy without it being a wash sale. It's from Schwab. I found it when researching whether to sign up for their intelligent portfolio. I decided against it cause I didn't want to enroll in something with a minimum balance. Hopefully others find it useful. I already used it to realize some losses without changing by asset allocation. https://intelligent.schwab.com/page/ETF-selection-process If anybody else has similar lists please feel free to share. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||
| DD - Why CRSR is an amazing steal at this price (+ short squeeze) Posted: 04 Mar 2021 08:35 AM PST Alright check this out folks. Corsair Gaming is one of the best tickers out there for a number of reasons: They absolutely crushed their expectations (even beat the top end of it) Some key highlights:
They are expecting nearly $2 billion in revenue for 2021. And the current market cap is $3 billion. This is one of the CHEAPEST valuation for a company with this kind of growth. A quick comparison with AMD will reveal 10 times expected revenue in 2021 versus CRSR's 2 times in 2021. With yearly revenue being up 58%, there's a lot of reasons why this stock is amazing. So it begs the questions: If the stock is amazing, both from a growth perspective and a book value perspective, why is it going down? You guessed it - short sellers SHORT INTERESTS CRSR has one of the HIGHEST short interests in the market (on top of the other wonderful stocks mentioned in this subreddit). The S/I from january to february increased a whopping +63.8% (see https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/CRSR/short-interest/) to 5+million shares from 3 million. There are a lot of reasons why this might be. But If I had to guess, it's because the shorts saw an easy way to manipulate the price down whilst there's no news going on. With all the other hype going on with other tickers, they saw CRSR as an easy target as earnings is a few months away and it's not currently a big news stock The stock is currently trading at $33 at the time of writing, way down from its $47 high DESPITE having killer earnings and guidance. Most analyst have their price target at an average of $49 (See here: https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/crsr/forecast) This leads to one of the biggest opportunities I can think of, both for a short squeeze and a buying opportunity for an excellent company at this price point. Sources:
Disclosure: I'm not a financial advisor. Please buy and sell securities at your own risk and own discretion. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||
| Crypto purchases do not trigger IRS reporting Posted: 04 Mar 2021 10:01 AM PST
Just a word of advice, even if you are not required to disclose your purchases, you might still want to keep a log with your purchase dates and cost basis for future reference. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||
| Calculating Equity Risk Premium for S&P500 Posted: 04 Mar 2021 07:09 PM PST Hey guys, I need your help. I'm trying to calculate the equity risk premium using DCF. Basically, I'm solving the following equation for r, and then subtracting 30y bond yield to get my get my risk premium. SP500_Value = CF_1/(1+r) + ... + CF_5/(1+r)^5 + terminal_value In order to do this, I need to be able to estimate the cash flows. Does anyone know where I can get a top down estimate of the dividends and buybacks of S&P500? I've tried searching on Yardeni, but I was unsuccessful. Appreciate the help! [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||
| $ASO DD Criminally Undervalued DD Posted: 04 Mar 2021 08:56 AM PST Academy Sports & Outdoors (ASO) is criminally undervalued and flying under the radar right now. It beat last quarter's earnings by 2.4x predictions, and upcoming earnings will be the catalyst needed to make ASO skyrocket. Guns are a major part of their sales, and January 2021 had the 3rd highest single-month gun sales recorded in US history. -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Fundamental Analysis: Gun Sales Academy Sports and Outdoors is focused on selling hunting, fishing, and camping equipment. A major point of interest in this company is its gun sales. So long as ASO continues to go down the path of marketing and selling guns, they will continue to grow, especially in today's climate. Gun sales are up in January from previous months, with the third-highest monthly total of gun sales on record (Gun sales surged 80 percent in January, data shows - The Washington Post). On top of that, the number of NICS Firearm Background Checks is up 30.53% from last year's monthly average, from 3,307,943 background checks per month in 2020 to 4,317,804 in January 2021 (NICS Firearm Checks: Month/Year — FBI). CEO Ken Hicks claims that many people picked up new hobbies such as hunting, fishing, and camping, which has helped drive sales. And if only 20-30% of those people continue with those hobbies, it will greatly help their sales (Academy Sports CEO says hobbies acquired during COVID will continue to drive sales in 2021 - MarketWatch). Especially if many are scared of future potential gun restrictions created by the Democrat-controlled Congress, now could be a time where we see a surge of gun purchases before any restrictions are made, which would drive ASO sales. Location-wise, ASO is in the perfect position to continue making sales year-round. Located in the South, people can continue their outdoor activities throughout the winter, providing ASO with sales when it may not otherwise have been able to if it were located further north. IPO and Leadership In 2011, KKR bought out ASO, however, ASO recently went public on October 2, 2020. Led by CEO Ken Hicks, ASO is well-positioned to continue boosting its sales. As CEO at Foot Locker, Hicks helped reverse three years of negative same-store sales, and he brings his experience in other executive positions to the table (Academy Sports + Outdoors Announces Ken C. Hicks as Chairman and CEO - ASO). ASO is clearly focused on growth, rather than maintenance. Effective Jan 29, 2021, ASO eliminated the COO position at ASO "in order to create a more efficient operating structure and focus on key strategic priorities" (Academy Sports eliminates COO role - MarketWatch). It is focused on increasing its efficiency and sales. This is also indicated by the fact that it just went public, meaning it intends to use the money gained from its public offering to help grow the company. Stimulus Bill The $1.9 trillion stimulus bill that was passed by the House on Feb 2, 2021, would be a huge boost to the company if it were to pass the Senate. This is not exclusive to ASO, but it would help the overall economy, and give more disposable income for people to spend, and help boost sales. Financials (obtained from Yahoo Finance; click title for link to spreadsheet) This is a key part of my valuation of ASO. It displays how criminally undervalued ASO is a company relative to the market as a whole, as well as its competitors. I have linked a google spreadsheet to this post that shows several key indicators as to why ASO is undervalued relative to its competitors. I will compare ASO's financials to Dick's Sporting Goods, as they are the most similar competitor. ASO's trailing P/E ratio is currently 10.82, as compared to DKS' 17.56 ASO's forward P/E is 9.78, as compared to DKS' 14.9 ASO's P/S (ttm) is 0.41, as compared to DKS' 0.74 ASO's P/B (mrq) is 2.29, as compared to DKS' 3.15 Additionally, its most recent actual earnings (0.91 eps) were 2.4x its predicted earnings (0.39 eps), and its predicted earnings for next quarter are 0.48 eps, still well below last quarters earnings (ASO 23.96 -0.78 -3.13% : Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. - Yahoo Finance). Debt ASO's debt is one of their few worrisome financial indicators. They have a great deal of debt, with their debt to equity ratio sitting at 272.59 (as compared to DKS' 150.66). However, ASO has already designated around $200 million obtained from their IPO to help pay off some debt (Is This Retail IPO a Winner? | The Motley Fool). They also have the ability to pay off short-term debt, so I do not see this as a company that will likely go bankrupt. Their current ratio (mrq) is 1.61 and although this is significantly lower than many other gun-related companies, it is actually lower than DKS' 1.4, which shows that they do in fact have the ability to show off their short-term debt. Short Interest While I am not a fan of solely using short interest as an indicator to invest in a stock, it can still be a helpful tool. According to S3 Research, ASO's short interest as a percentage of its float is 28.18%, as compared to DKS' 14.97%. Both of these are fairly high, and show that there is great short interest against both these companies. Although I strongly believe that there will not be a sudden short squeeze, over time I believe that sustained stock price growth will force investors to cover their short positions, and will definitely help fuel ASO's stock price growth. -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Technical Analysis: ASO has been following a strict channel since its IPO in October as seen below. It has bounced off support and resistance multiple times, but still remains in this channel. ASO is currently hitting the bottom of the channel, and I believe it will soon bounce back. This is a perfect stock for MMs to manipulate and keep in this channel, with small volume and sizeable bid-ask spread: This channel has major support. At the end of January 2020, ASO announced its secondary offering, and the stock price plummeted, only to hit support and bounce right back: This channel has some extremely strong support, and ASO is the perfect stock for MMs. It has a low volume, high bid-ask spread, and high institutional ownership (sitting at about 75%). -=-=-=-=-=-=- Predictions: My Target Prices First short-term target price: $30 by 5/1 Second short-term target price: $60 by 7/1 My ASO Calls 10x ASO $30c 3/19 10x ASO $30c 4/16 11x ASO $30c 7/16 I am not a financial advisor, and none of you should construe what I say as financial advice. These are simply my beliefs based on the research that I have personally conducted. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||
| BJ wholesale club (BJ) doubles profit Posted: 04 Mar 2021 05:07 AM PST This company is doing fantastic, half the PE of Costco, on the downswing, just reported a record breaking quarter BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. Announces Record Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2020 Results
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| $OXY $OLN $GE $ABB what do they have in common... Posted: 04 Mar 2021 06:39 PM PST Guys, I'm in the industrial sector and there's a lot of talk of how we will convert to Hydrogen. We can't flip a switch so it will come in stages, but it looks like the quickest way to bring in the gas will be as a byproduct of Chlorine production. Companies like Olin and Occidental chemical would be the prime candidates to supply it to start. $OLN and $OXY. The other side of this is upgrading the power plants to be able to handle hydrogen versus natural gas power. They will have to upgrade the turbines in each of the power plants as well as piping because they need three times as much Hydrogen to equal the amount of volume on natural gas. However Hydrogen burns much hotter than natural gas which is why the turbines need to be upgraded. The major players here are General Electric and Siemens. $GE. Lastly there will be the renewable resources like solar that are used to create Hydrogen via electrolysis. Companies like $ABB and Wacker will likely grow here. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||
| Head Mounted Display (HMD) Market Size is Projected to Explode and Reach USD 18.4 Billion by 2026 Posted: 04 Mar 2021 09:43 AM PST Everything from gaming headsets to drone FPV goggles will be affected by this massive increase as well as other specialty use headsets! Just take a look at the Drone Racing League for example and check out its current massive growth Worldwide! Crazy! May even see different companies who currently make headsets branch out into other related headset industries because of this growth! Have to admit though these are pretty amazing numbers when considering this forecast is outside of the actual product that the headset will be controlling and its market sales numbers! [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 04 Mar 2021 01:14 PM PST I've been looking for some stocks to invest in and of course, I do my due diligence, but I noticed something I don't understand. MTBC reported an increase in accounts payable, accrued expenses, and accrued compensation of 11.9 million, but on the Cash Flow statement, they are showing this as a reduction of cash. Is there any reason why? Also, the accounts payable, accrued expenses and accrued expenses don't add up for me. I must be missing something. Here is the link to their 10K: http://filings.irdirect.net/data/1582982/000149315221004837/form10-k.pdf [link] [comments]  |
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