Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread Investing |
- Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread
- Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.
- Biden Administration Will Continue Chinese Tech Ban In Government-Should Cause Big Boom For US Based Drone Stocks As Well As Other Government Tech Products.
- Why does UWMC have large net income but it is negative in the financial statment.
- Wall Street Analyst Gives Coinbase Stock Its First Rating Ahead of Public Debut
- Okta to acquire Auth0 for 6.5Billion, rev climbs 40%, shares down an additional 10% after hours
- The bullish case for Tanger Outlets, 1 month later. Let's dig into the 10-K! $SKT.
- A little insight on what's going on with the markets & general expectations
- Snowflake EPS misses by $0.26, beats on revenue
- Hertz -- The original meme stock -- is turning out to be worthless (Bloomberg)
- Investing in a Roth IRA vs Robinhood
- To all ARKG holders out there
- Theory for Market Outlook in back half of 2021 - please poke holes
- Latest trend readings from my model
- With Guardant Health ($GH) Leading the Way, the Liquid Biopsy Industry Will Be Similar To The Tech Revolution In Terms Of Size And Disruption
- Money printing and inflation
- Asian Restaurant supplier HF Foods Groun (HFFG) - DD
- $LFMD DD - the short term and long term prospects of $LFMD and of the tele-health industry
- $RYCEY LONG HOLD Rolls-Royce
- JP Morgan Survey Reveals What Institutions Think of Crypto
- OSCR (Oscar Health) opens trading at a 9% discount to the IPO price
- ATSG and Amazon - warrants expiring
- Tax law changes and potential impact on preferreds versus growth stocks and bonds
- Industrial Diversification with NUE, STLD, and STAG: DD/Discussion.
- Western Union ($WU): Value buy or value trap
| Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread Posted: 04 Mar 2021 02:01 AM PST Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here! This thread is for:
Keep in mind that this subreddit, and this thread, is not an appropriate venue for questions that should be directed towards your broker's customer support or google. If you would like to ask a question about your personal situation or if you are asking for advice please keep these posts in the daily advice thread as that thread is more well suited for those questions. Any posts that should be comments in this thread will likely be removed. [link] [comments]  |
| Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Posted: 04 Mar 2021 02:00 AM PST If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our side bar also has useful resources. Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 03 Mar 2021 02:54 PM PST Looks like the Government bans on Chinese Tech will continue! Very good sign for the future of the Drone industry for US based companies considering how DJI dominated for years and many of those fleets have already been grounded and will have to be replaced. Should produce some pretty rapid growth! Anyone who is not investing in a US based drone company should be considering Government is 70% of the drone market in the US currently! There is going to be a lot of government customers looking for a US based source for all different types of drones! [link] [comments]  |
| Why does UWMC have large net income but it is negative in the financial statment. Posted: 03 Mar 2021 09:11 AM PST I am trying to learn and thing or two on how to do my own due diligence. I noticed something odd while looking at the financials for UWMC. Looking at the Revenue vs Net Income chart, a 1.45B net income is shown for Q32020. https://www.google.com/finance/quote/UWMC:NYSE That is insane for a 16B market cap company that also pays a 4% dividend. So then checking the financial statement https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/UWMC/financials I see no such thing! What is going on? I just wanted to see where all this net income came from. Can someone explain this to me so my brain can grow a wrinkle? [link] [comments]  |
| Wall Street Analyst Gives Coinbase Stock Its First Rating Ahead of Public Debut Posted: 03 Mar 2021 11:20 AM PST Wall Street analyst is bullish on the stock of the Coinbase exchange ahead of its public debut. Gil Luria of DA Davidson has given COIN its first "buy" rating, building on the growing momentum behind the company. The analyst writes that the cryptocurrency industry is going to have its own "Amazon moment" with the upcoming direct listing of Coinbase:
Luria has taken note of the exchange's regulatory compliance as well as its superb security measures:
https://u.today/wall-street-analyst-gives-coinbase-stock-its-first-rating-ahead-of-public-debut [link] [comments]  |
| Okta to acquire Auth0 for 6.5Billion, rev climbs 40%, shares down an additional 10% after hours Posted: 03 Mar 2021 03:33 PM PST Always liked OKTA as a product, and company culture seems good. With more remote work and potential hacking and phishing target opportunties, I am a firm believer in Okta's 2FA suite of products. Also, my company uses OKTA dashboard (literally everything in one page, sort of like a dashboard to manage all your subscriptions), and they 'synergize' their Okta Verify 2factor to access all your assigned applications. The question is IMO, did they overpay for a company that barely sees 100m revenue a year? [link] [comments]  |
| The bullish case for Tanger Outlets, 1 month later. Let's dig into the 10-K! $SKT. Posted: 03 Mar 2021 04:12 PM PST I wrote this post a month ago about how Tanger Outlets was a short squeeze target, got a lot of upvotes/links/etc: https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l7g8a0/the_bullish_case_for_tanger_outlets_skt/ Much is the same, other posters have made other DD comments recently, the short interest has been beaten to death, you can read about that elsewhere. The annual report has come out since I last posted, and since I actually sit down and read 10-K's now (yes i am old), so I'll share my thoughts: Before I do that though, this guy from Seeking Alpha did the same, and has pretty graphs to go along with that. I'm not going to try to write out ascii charts here in reddit markdown, so here you go: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4408746-s-official-tanger-survived-pandemic I'm going to repeat some of the things he does, but here's my take on the 10-K (which you can read here: http://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000899715/cb76277e-f5f1-4304-9899-6e8259a30b10.pdf) Bullish case:
Bearish cases / danger signs: As the SA article said, Tanger gets 16% of their rent from 4 companies:
While some of those have struggled, usually there are other stores in the portfolio picking up the slack. GAP/Banana Republic isn't doing as well, but Old Navy has been crushing it, for instance. The risk is some of those companies don't bounce back as expected and enter bankruptcy. Generally, the outlet stores though are the last to close.. random mall stores will be first, outlets will go out last. I'm not overly familiar with what's up and coming in new clothing stores / chains / etc, so this is where, for me, it gets a little nebulous. The base rent per square foot took a dive in 2020, but to be expected. It was 21.10, 92% occupancy. 2019 was 97%, 25.35/sqft. Going back further years, those #s are pretty steady -- 2016 was the best, 98%, 26.10/sqft. So we have had some slippage, though pretty minor, from 2016-2019. It's a question of what they can get 2021 sqft/occupancy levels back to and how quickly. One thing that annoys me about Tanger Outlets though from an investor standpoint, is that restaurants are not a real part of the outlets they have. The one by me has a Chipotle and a lol Applebee's, and that's basically it for food options. Having more mid-tier sit down restaurants in the outlets, so people can come shop, eat, and then shop some more, is what I'd like to see. Given the new CEO comes from Simon Property Group, and they have more restaurants in their tenant list, I'm hopeful that if there are vacancies, we'll see restaurants fill in the gap. Disclosures: I've been long on Tanger for a while now, own 1100 shares of stock, and Jan 2022 20c and 30c options. My intent is to hold onto the shares for some time as I'm happy with the dividend and want to see what the new CEO does with it, but close out call positions if we get a significant pop. [link] [comments]  |
| A little insight on what's going on with the markets & general expectations Posted: 03 Mar 2021 05:18 PM PST The current volatility is attributed to various industry rotations in portfolios (especially in retirement accounts, which get rebalanced near the end of every quarter) and heavy-growth sectors. While a lot of people like to avert attention to a (obviously inevitable, but untimely) bubble, the largest group, FAANG, has not seen a move for the past 1/2 year despite QE and expected economic production. There are definitely companies highly over-valued like EV or renewables (especially solar power) - their stock performance fits the profile of a bubble. You'll notice more funds rotating into cyclical industries as the economy drastically recovers, as people are itching to regain some semblance of normal life. The shift to airlines, hotels, tech, and retail leans on the back of vaccine progression. Powell's biggest takeaway from his testimony last week was to ensure everyone was vaccinated. Fiscal (Treasury stimulus) and monetary (Fed) support will continue to remain in place, which may - as he noted - temporarily increase inflation, but within a tolerable band for the Fed. Emerging markets equities could be interesting now as the USD continues to weaken. My personal favorites are Taiwan + Latin / South America. The biggest fear macro-economically (probably more than a year from now) seems to be the lack of investing in energy infrastructure. Energy needs could lead to supply issues, but this seems to be an afterthought for a lot of infrastructure budgets. Thinking on the larger scale, underinvestment in this segment can materialize into an energy crisis, ergo market meltdown (pun intended). [link] [comments]  |
| Snowflake EPS misses by $0.26, beats on revenue Posted: 03 Mar 2021 01:13 PM PST
[link] [comments]  |
| Hertz -- The original meme stock -- is turning out to be worthless (Bloomberg) Posted: 03 Mar 2021 01:08 PM PST TL;DR: Hertz is probably the original meme-stock from last year. Hertz declared bankruptcy, and then for some reason, memers decided to buy the company anyway. Hertz jumped on the opportunity, issuing a secondary offering and raising $29 million before the SEC jumped in and declared the whole mess to be a bad idea. As expected: those poor retail suckers who gambled $29 million on this bankrupt company are getting $0 now. [link] [comments]  |
| Investing in a Roth IRA vs Robinhood Posted: 03 Mar 2021 11:38 PM PST I am 18 years old and recently started trading stocks a few months ago. My goal since I first started trading on robinhood was to grow the money I currently have in my savings and invest it into long term stocks. My dad was telling me that I should set up a Roth IRA and trade stocks in there as opposed to using an online broker like robinhood. My dad isn't to well versed with the stock market so I wanted to get a second opinion from the people of this subreddit. Also, if this is a good move long term what are some of the best brokerages to open a Roth IRA with? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 03 Mar 2021 07:18 AM PST What is something that's causing you to hold it or making you to think about buying even more? My biotech knowledge is very limited so I'm here to learn as much as possible. If you're currently not invested, are you looking to buy any? Or on the contrary have you sold any or looking to sell? Why or why not? Do you think it's a good investment? Really appreciate any response, just trying to follow the breadcrumbs here. Right now the only reason I'm invested in it is because of the track record of Cathie Woods and Arks strategy of structuring their pool of resources and data. I think the way Cathie structured her company also makes her a better candidate than other Asset Management companies. Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated! [link] [comments]  |
| Theory for Market Outlook in back half of 2021 - please poke holes Posted: 03 Mar 2021 09:12 AM PST Economy has been heating up for the last quarter or two. As economy heats up with the gradual reopening we have seen in last few quarters inflation has slowly ticked up alongside. I'm hardly the only person that has noticed. My thesis is that with the additional $1.9B stimmy being injected into an economy that is already running hot we will start to overheat more. Then when vaccine rollout completes the economy flips into straight nuclear growth mode with ridiculous pent up demand exploding into the market back half of the year. This makes inflation run through the fuckin roof. With runaway inflation the Fed has one real option (correct me if I'm off here) which is to raise rates. The market has priced equites with the assumption that rates stay at 0 until 2023. I see the potential for the Fed to be cornered with inflationary pressure to raise sooner and the stock market absolutely shitting itself, similar to the last taper tantrum. Only this time, Fed can't walk it back because they have no choice. Please point out any blind spots in this theory. This potentially shifts my whole investment approach for the rest of this year. Edit: Thank you to all for your input, really love having educated discussions like this and I hope it helps prove a sounding board for your theses as well. [link] [comments]  |
| Latest trend readings from my model Posted: 03 Mar 2021 06:06 PM PST After getting mixed signals in the $NDX complex beginning a few weeks ago in my model, the trend finally confirmed as bearish today. Will continue to avoid clean energy / ARKK. $XLE $XLI $XLF $XRT $XLB as sector exposures continues to look good. $TSLA $AAPL $ARKK turned beariah trend two weeks ago meanwhile $ICLN turned bearish close to 3 weeks ago. The model is largely based on multi factor, multi duration parameters and is multi fractal in nature - inspired by the readings of Mandelbrot. Still a work in progress and I'll continue to modify it as we go. If you have any questions please feel free to drop them below. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 03 Mar 2021 06:25 PM PST Having done a bit of DD on Guardant Health ($GH) I wanted to share my views on the company. As always, I appreciate any and all feedback. While other companies are making significant strides in early cancer detection (i.e. Exact Sciences ($EXAS) and Illumina ($ILMN), as well as Google-backed Freenome), I believe Guardant is a true disruptor in the life sciences industry. Guardant is a precision oncology company with a specific focus in liquid biopsy. Unlike a traditional tissue biopsy, their liquid biopsies use a simple blood test that produces quicker results and is significantly less invasive. For example, consider screening for Colon cancer via blood draw instead of having to undergo a two-day colonoscopy. Guardant is then able to perform an analysis of the blood to detect fragments of DNA from tumor cells in the blood. Guardant distinguishes itself from other liquid biopsy companies in a few important ways. Their CDx solution is the first FDA-Approved Liquid Biopsy for Comprehensive Tumor Mutation Profiling across all solid cancers. This is a companion to GH's flagship product, Guardant360, which is already a huge commercial success - and gives GH a competitive advantage over their competitors, i.e. 2cureX, which is working on similar solutions. Additionally, GH has recently begun its ECLIPSE trial for the early detection of colorectal cancer in asymptomatic patients. With trial enrollment ending in Oct/Nov we will likely see some data around mid-year. Most importantly, this trial essentially serves as the backbone of GH's broader early cancer detection program, and provides a roadmap for success that I believe the other competing liquid biopsy companies currently do not have. Finally, Guardant has a market cap of <$15bn, which compared to Illumina and Exact Science (~$61bn and ~$21.5bn, respectively) is positioned well for substantial growth. And although Q1 earnings fell a bit short on conservative guidance, Guardant still posted nearly $287 million in full-year 2020 revenue (34% revenue growth YoY). Historically, the stock has performed extremely well, and the overwhelming majority of analysts have maintained strong buys and raised price targets (i.e., Citigroup, from $155 to $190, Cowen & Co., from $140 to $190. and Morgan Stanley, from $130 to $175). I would love to hear if others agree/disagree. Needless to say, I am very optimistic about Guardant's achievements in early cancer detection through the development of its innovative blood tests, and see this not only as a great investment opportunity, but them as a disruptive force within the industry. Of course, if there are other investment opportunities that folks are similarly excited about, I am always interested to hear as well! [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 03 Mar 2021 04:32 PM PST Hey guys, because of the current craziness in the stock market I did some resesearch on the yield curve and inflation in general. I am no economic expert but with the little I know I always thought that central banks are the only actors which can "print" money. And right now the central banks print much more because of the pandemic. Ergo, I thought, that's why people fear inflation. But then I stumbled over a for me shocking article of the Bank of England. The FEDs and ECBs of this world do not create most of the money in the economy. It's the commercial banks which created 80% (!!!) of it. Each time they issue a loan they can "print" new money. And apparently in the EU banks only have to hold a minimum of 1% of liabilities. Example: you put 100 € in your bank account. The bank then has to deposit 1€ as liability with the central bank. And then they can lend the remaining 99€ as credit to let's say your friend. Your friend perhaps spends 9€ immediately and puts 90€ back in his bank account. And guess what? The bank then can deposit 90 cents and create a new loan with the remaining 89,10€. Can anyone tell me if I understood this right? And then if this is the case and central banks up until now only account for 20% max of the total money, why is their money printing said to potentially causing inflation while noone cares about the money printing of commercial banks?! I seriously have problems to understand this and would appreciate if you could help and explain this to me. Sorry in advance for my flawed English. Sources: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/knowledgebank/how-is-money-created https://www.ecb.europa.eu/explainers/tell-me/html/minimum_reserve_req.en.html#:~:text=Until%20January%202012%2C%20banks%20had,euro%20(beginning%20of%202016).) [link] [comments]  |
| Asian Restaurant supplier HF Foods Groun (HFFG) - DD Posted: 03 Mar 2021 06:31 AM PST Alright this is my first DD ever, so rip into it the best you can and tell me where I can improve. Company description HF Foods Group is the largest Asian restaurant supplier in the United States. They focus on dry and frozen goods. From their website (https://hffoodsgroup.com/) they supply sauces, noodles, meat, seafood, fresh produce, commodities, packaging, and more. From what I can gather, this is where your local neighborhood Chinese restaurant gets all their operating supplies from. I think of them as the Sysco of the asian food market. They operate out of 14 different distribution centers focused in the west and southeast of the United States. History It looks like they went public in 2017. Since then, two big events have happened. They merged with B&R in June of 2019. I can't find anything about this except that the CEO of B&R became the co-CEO of HFFG. They were investigated for misleading shareholders by multiple attorneys between July of 2019 and May of 2020. From what I can find, the SEC has not gotten involved with this. The claim is that they spent money on things like sports cars and stuff like that. I'm pretty new to investing, so I'm not sure how common attorney investigations are or how much of a red flag they are. Competition It's hard to find direct competitors who do exactly what they do on a national scale. CTC Food international is an Asian supply company that looks to focus on grocery stores. Sysco also has an Asian food supply branch, but from what I can find, it doesn't look like they are the ones supplying your strip mall Chinese restaurant. If anyone knows somewhere else Asian restaurants are getting their supplies please let me know. Has anyone here working in a Chinese restaurant and know more about suppliers? Ownership/Leadership Xiao Mou Zhang aka Peter Zhang - CEO/Director Peter was the CEO of B & R Global Holdings before they merged. He was recently promoted from co-CEO to CEO after the voluntary resignation of Zhou Min Ni (who was the other co-CEO. This all happened around 2/25/21. He's been in the business for 20 years, but beyond that, it's hard to find any additional info on him. But as Oscar once said "Look, it doesn't take a genius to know that every organization thrives when it has two leaders. Go ahead, name a country that doesn't have two presidents. A boat that sets sail without two captains. Where would Catholicism be without the popes?" Russell T. Libby - Chairman of the Board This guy was a Sysco vet of 12 years. Straight from Business Insider "Russell Libby has nearly 30 years of experience in mergers and acquisitions, strategy, business development, international business, corporate governance, and corporate social responsibility. From 2007 to 2019, he held numerous leadership positions at Sysco Corp. and most recently served as the company's executive vice president and corporate secretary." He was appointed to the board in March of 2020. February 25th, 2021 he was appointed the Chairman of the Board, unanimously, taking effect immediately. Dr. Hong Wang - Independent Director This guy is a lifelong professor of business. Not much to say other than that. Asian community I have a friend who is a realtor. She says it is common practice for Chinese customers to go with a Chinese realtor. It's extremely rare for a Chinese customer to go with a non-Chinese realtor. Now, this is just a broad generalization, but I do think this carries over into the food market. I think these Asian restaurants are going to be more likely to buy from Asian owned companies. And HFFG is an Asian managed company. Industry Asian restaurant industry looked to be $15.4billion in 2020, with 1% growth per year over the last 5 years. No reason to think that the industry should not hold steady going forward. Covid Covid crushed the Asian food industry. Remember when Trump was calling it the Chinavirus? From their chart, we can see they took a huge hit around that time last year. They have not rebounded at all. But if we look at sysco, we see their rebound is complete. Financials Market cap of $386.39M Price/Book is 1.12 - Sysco is 27.53 Revenue % change (TTM) +95% Revenue Growth (last 5 years) +5.93% Compared to sysco, which is a terrible comparison, this stock is cheap. Revenue is growing steady. Gross Margin (most recent Quarter) 21.08% Gross Margin (TTM) 20% Operating Margin (most recent Quarter) .88% Operating Margin (TTM) .46% So the last quarter had slightly better margin then the trailing twelve months (TTM) Total Debt/Equity (TTM) 39% They don't have a terrible amount of debt. And their balance sheet - The last four quarters on the balance sheet have looked healthy. Their current assets cover their current liabilities. Their liabilities have been holding steady since covid hit. This shows me they were able to find capital in the short term to cover any debt. They don't look at risk of becoming insolvent any time soon. Follow up questions Has anyone here worked in a Chinese restaurant and know more about suppliers? How big of a red flag are those investigations by the attorneys? I'm not a financial person/advisor. Just thinking that I might like the stock. I do own a few shares, thinking about buying more. [link] [comments]  |
| $LFMD DD - the short term and long term prospects of $LFMD and of the tele-health industry Posted: 04 Mar 2021 02:00 AM PST u/thesfdude from r/LFMD "I think those in-the-know are generally hyper-bullish on telemedicine adoption over the next, idk, 7 years. In my opinion the bear case is: Short Term: -when are the q4 audited results and conference call? Why do we not have a date for that yet? Any problems? Auditor finding issues? Fear is high! -10 year bond yields rising... 38M revenue for 2020... even at $15/sh, that's 10x trailing year revenue... steep price! Especially with bond yields rising, making "duration" (long time until profits) more painful, comparatively -Sure, we can throw out $90M expected revenue for 2021 all we want, but that's 150% YoY growth. $HIMS has guided for 40% YoY growth (though they say that is conservative). $LFMD execution risk is real. Which makes investors even more anxious to hear that q4 call (and especially commentary) Long Term: -It's a high margin business (especially the DTC subscriptions of generics and soon skincare). High margins means competition (Hims, Roman, Keeps, Lemonaid, etc). Hims is no doubt the leader and the most recognizable brand... do they squash LFMD like a fly? -NavaMD shouldn't be too capital intensive to launch, but it's going to take some cash to get LifeMD up and running. How is the liquidity situation looking? In the end, it's risk vs reward. It's a large part of my portfolio, though not the largest, and I'm in at an average cost of $18.90. I happen to think the risk/reward is very favorable if you're a long term investor anywhere below $25/sh. The potential of LifeMD (powered by VeritasMD) is huge and disruptive. The growing DTC brands are nice little subscription businesses. ShapiroMD is solid, RexMD has huge growth potential, and I like the dermatology space a lot for telemedicine, so I'm bullish on NavaMD. They will eventually sell PDFSimpli to raise cash to support and grow LifeMD and be hyper focused on telemedicine. It will be a bumpy ride. Just remember insiders found it wise to buy at $20-$21, they just raised $14M in a private placement at $23, the typically bearish Citron is bullish, and the two analysts covering it have price targets 60% above the current price. Management has a lot of experience in marketing and may have an edge in customer acquisition. The flywheel between the brands is strong, and cross-selling is possible. Hims launched in late 2017, and RexMD launched in Dec'19. If they're worth half of what Hims currently is in 3 YEARS, it's a 3x from here. If LifeMD is gains traction from employers one day, it's 5x in 5-6 years. There's always a chance at an $850M buyout in the near term for a 2x. Just a lot of ways to win. Let's hear what Justin has to say in the conference call, and let's monitor how they execute. IMO it remains an absolute bargain at today's prices." [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 03 Mar 2021 10:14 AM PST $RYCEY is currently trading at $1.63 with a market cap of 13.6B Rolls-Royce has signed a collaborative agreement with the UK Ministry of Defence (MOD) to strengthen ways of working across key Royal Navy programmes. The Memorandum of Understanding describes a commitment of both parties to work together to deliver on-going support for Rolls-Royce MT30 and WR-21 engines and an understanding of how that will be done. On top of this they are in the works on a deal with Fermi Energia to study compact nuclear reactors. The current ATL of $RYCEY is $1.35 on most charts but TD Ameritrade shows an instance of $.59 low in October 2020 I think that with things slowly reopening and more Airplanes coming back to flight, RR will be busy with maintenance and repair. They are currently planning a short shutdown in the Summer which could be a good play for stability. [link] [comments]  |
| JP Morgan Survey Reveals What Institutions Think of Crypto Posted: 03 Mar 2021 11:43 AM PST A recent JPMorgan survey...shows that 7 percent of institutional investors believe that crypto could end up becoming one of the "most important" assets. The list of respondents includes the representatives of close to 1,500 institutions from all over the globe. Notably, over 11 percent of these firms have already dabbled in cryptocurrencies. The lion's share of all investors (58 percent) believe that crypto is here to stay. 21 percent of all respondents, however, believe that it's just a flash in the pan. Last week, JPMorgan strategists recommended putting one percent of one's portfolio into Bitcoin. https://u.today/jpmorgan-survey-shows-what-institutions-think-about-crypto [link] [comments]  |
| OSCR (Oscar Health) opens trading at a 9% discount to the IPO price Posted: 03 Mar 2021 10:37 AM PST Looks like Kushner over priced the IPO to get the money for himself. Not surprised. IPO priced at $39 after two upward adjustments and opened trading at $35. Even in this hot IPO market, this company disappoints with a drop in early trading. I'm sure the IPO investors he swindled are real happy with him right now. I wonder if this is an anomaly, or if this means the IPO market is losing some of its heat. We might see a return to more reasonable IPO valuations just in time for Robinhood and Coinbase. I don't follow every IPO, but I don't remember the last time I saw one that opened trading under the IPO price. Even BMBL is well below IPO pricing, though 20% off it's highs. We'll see if OSCR has any legs and can rebound, but these big institutions don't buy IPOs to see them drop 10% on day one. A 10-20% increase the first day is really the minimum expectation - and in the recent market, that might be 30%-50%. [link] [comments]  |
| ATSG and Amazon - warrants expiring Posted: 03 Mar 2021 01:34 PM PST Disclosure: Long ATSG Bought ATSG because, you know America, packages, flying....good. But there's also the fact that Amazon owns warrants allowing them to buy 19.9% of the company for $9.73 a share...and those warrants expire March 8th, 2021. Why is no one talking about this? Feeling lonely on this. DD sources: AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP CONFIRMS DEAL WITH AMAZON Form 8-K - Item 1.01 Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement [link] [comments]  |
| Tax law changes and potential impact on preferreds versus growth stocks and bonds Posted: 03 Mar 2021 12:49 PM PST First post on the sub, so please be kind. I'm trying to reason my way through a few observed/potential effects on preferred stock pricing and yields (yes I believe in the EMH for large caps and continuous updating of inflation/interest rates): 1. If Biden does equalise high earners capital gains and income tax rates, won't that make preferred stocks relatively more valuable than they have been historically (since capital growth stocks used to be favoured)? 2. Given the ability of preferreds to update dividend policy versus fixed interest rate bonds, does the potential increasing inflationary environment/Fed interest rate posture again make preferreds relatively more attractive than bonds? I'm not sure that enough capital in US markets is impacted by #1 (since most market moving capital is in pre-tax individual and institutional pension accounts). And I don't know the historic correlation between pref stock price + dividend yield versus govt/high quality Corp bond returns. Thoughts welcome. Any published studies (eg NBER or Fed or private research house) definitely welcome. [link] [comments]  |
| Industrial Diversification with NUE, STLD, and STAG: DD/Discussion. Posted: 03 Mar 2021 10:36 PM PST So I am currently looking to diversify into the industrial sector as I've noticed I don't have any holdings in that sector and feel that with the Dems in charge there could be a infrastructure bill or just plain infrastructure kick backs and pork given to senators for working with the Dems. That being said the three tickers I'm currently looking at are NUE, STLD, and STAG. Below are the reasons why I'm looking at these companies and would love to hear from y'all if you have anything to add or if you have another industrial sector ticker I should look at. Starting out we have an OG industrial sector play that has been increasing its dividend every year for 48 consecutive years, is Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE). This steel producer is the go to over other producers of steel like US steel (NYSE:X) because it doesn't use old blast furnaces like we're in the 1800's. Instead it uses electrical arc furnaces which uses electricity to convert raw iron AND recycled scrap metal into useable steel. Something the blast furnaces can't do because they require large amounts of raw material which isn't always available when working with various scrap metals. Additionally this provides a much less volatile stock because even in times of less demand, electric arc furnaces are able to scale down their production and use less resources to save money overall so down trends don't hurt them as much as blast furnaces. This isn't a fact that's lost on the big name blast furnaces steel suppliers (X and CLF) who are both seeking ways to move into the electric arc furnace side one way or another, X is buying a smaller mill that has a single electric arc furnace and CLF is selling its iron byproducts and waste to NUE, who can recycle it and turn it into useable steel, to make up on losses from its blast furnace. Finally it pays a fair dividend with a dividend yield of 2.62% or roughly $1.60 per share per year paid out every quarter in Feb, May, Aug, and Nov. Next up is STLD, which is basically what happened if someone said to you: "what if you wanted to invest in basically the exact same company as above, that has an almost identical dividend yield, was started by NUE employees, and has the room to grow into what NUE currently is?" I see this as a pure diversification in the steel industrial market by investing in Steel Dynamics (NYSE: STLD). The only reason I'm mentioning this company in addition to NUE is because of the diversification it offers along with the fact that it has room to move up 50% to catch up to NUE's stock price. Additionally it's actually increasing its dividend % for its next quarterly payout in April. For this stock, this year, you're looking at a 2.36% dividend yield paying you about $1.04 per year per share. Finally there is Stag Industrial Inc NYSE:STAG). This REIT specializes in single tenant, industrial focused warehouses and properties for these major industrial producers. It also pays monthly which is great for that sweet sweet compounding action that we love to see when grabbing up dividend plays and has increased its dividend the last 7 consecutive years. Additionally with it being a REIT, we as shareholders benefit from that law that says at least 90% of profits have to go to us. I view this as a sort of double diversification play, it allows me to invest in both real estate as well as the industrial sector. Any thoughts on these or any other industrials I should keep on my radar? I personally think I'll be buying these three in my Roth IRA when my next check hits unless I find either a better industrial play, or a reason not to, such as me being completely wrong about one of these companies, which is possible since I'm not an expert or financial advisor and no one but me should take this as advice. [link] [comments]  |
| Western Union ($WU): Value buy or value trap Posted: 03 Mar 2021 10:45 AM PST Pros: it's cheap and they generate tons of cash compared to how expensive it is for them to do what they do. Money transfers aren't a thing of the past and their footprint in emerging markets may be of great benefit to them since cross border transactions make up a material part of their revenues. Cons: Serious earnings games, acquisitions and divestitures allow them to take restructuring charges which obfuscates earnings, management comes from companies that probably have very traditional understandings of money (can't see them pivoting to crypto because of it), revenues have been falling steadily for years. I'm torn. [link] [comments]  |
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