Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread Investing |
- Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread
- Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.
- List of stocks ranking highest in momentum, quality and value
- Near-term investing thoughts: No recession this year, but perhaps a "Black Monday"
- Costco Stock Is an Easy Buy on the Dip COST stock is one of the best in the market for investing in future dividends– and it's now on sale
- The market is overvalued but not as bad as some say
- Zoom Q4 and Fiscal year report
- European Stocks Mixed After WHO Warning
- Rocketlab to go public via SPAC merger
- Coupang sets $27-to-$30 price for U.S. IPO
- Hyliion HYLN (electric semi truck maker, Tesla rival) announces end of year production
- BEP - Brookfield Renewable Partners L.P.
- Income investing (CEFs etc)
- Going long on Lucid & Apple
- Under-the-radar alcohol stock looking prime
- LFMD - now at a very attractive entry point and good fundamentals to go long
- Musing about Spotify Streaming and the power struggle between content producers and technology disruptors.
- Bear market investing strategy
- $GEO is a new position for Michael Burry
| Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread Posted: 02 Mar 2021 02:01 AM PST Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here! This thread is for:
Keep in mind that this subreddit, and this thread, is not an appropriate venue for questions that should be directed towards your broker's customer support or google. If you would like to ask a question about your personal situation or if you are asking for advice please keep these posts in the daily advice thread as that thread is more well suited for those questions. Any posts that should be comments in this thread will likely be removed. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Posted: 02 Mar 2021 02:00 AM PST If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our side bar also has useful resources. Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| List of stocks ranking highest in momentum, quality and value Posted: 01 Mar 2021 05:57 PM PST Hello all, I made a post two weeks ago about an idea I had and a lot of people were interested. Basically, my friend and I built a screener that selects the stocks that rank highest in momentum (12m-1m price return), quality (high ROA, low D/E) and value (low P/E, PB, P/CF, P/S). We built the screener because finviz and others do not let you select the stocks that are in the top 10% cheapest and 10% highest momentum. We have the data for global stocks, but I decided to make my first post about US stocks only. So here's the list of the 10 stocks ranking highest in momentum, value and quality (There were 25 stocks in my screener but I took the 10 stocks with the highest momentum):
Obvisouly, no one should buy any of these stocks only because they rank well in a few metrics, but I feel like weekly/monthly discussions about the stocks ranking highest in different ratios could be interesting for investors. Also, most of these stocks are small caps that aren't known by many, so it's a great way to learn about new companies. If you have any question/suggestion, please let me know! [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Near-term investing thoughts: No recession this year, but perhaps a "Black Monday" Posted: 01 Mar 2021 01:58 PM PST There appear to be two schools of wildly-diverging thought among investors right now, and I've been thinking how to bridge the two camps, since I can't imagine them being both so incredibly wrong given the amount of money on the line. On the pessimists side are numerous successful investors (Ray Dalio, Jeremy Grantham, Charlie Munger, Michael Burry) who believe stocks are in a massive bubble. The Buffett Indicator and Shiller PE both say the stock market is highly overvalued. Even though I likewise believe we're in a massive bubble, those indicators give little information about timing, and they could conceivably keep inflating for some time. On the optimists side is the bond market, where the yield curve is normal and not inverted, and showing signs of modest short-term inflation. With the Fed's foot firmly on the gas pedal and with a massive fiscal stimulus working its way through Congress, the odds of a recession related to the business-cycle or Fed overtightening this year is basically zero, though some shock like war or natural disaster could come out of left field. But we've seen instances where the stock market crashed even when the real economy kept on growing. The best example in my lifetime is the "Black Monday" crash of October 19, 1987. The S&P 500 dropped 20% in a day, but the real underlying economy (as measured by GDP) kept chugging right along. My suspicion is that something similar to a "Black Monday" will play out this year. The stock market, or at least the overvalued sectors of it, will crash and wipe out a lot of paper wealth, but the underlying economy will keep strengthening in the short term. In the long-term I suspect we'll have a massive crash once fiscal stimulus tapers off, or we'll admit that the US economy is "going Japanese" and continue passing repeated fiscal stimulus as long as that's viable. Thoughts? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 01 Mar 2021 09:48 PM PST COST stock has declined over 9% so far in 2021. It's down 12% from late November highs. But for a name like Costco, a 12% move is rather significant. It's not just significant – it's a buying opportunity. Costco did take a modest hit during the pandemic, in part due to store closures. For instance, in April same-store sales excluding gasoline and foreign currency effects were flat. That's a huge disappointment by Costco's high standards. But as stores reopened, Costco immediately got back on track. In June, for instance, same-store sales rose 14% on the same basis. For the third quarter (ending May 10), Costco drove 4.8% same-store growth. In Q4, the figure accelerated to better than 11%. Growth in December and January averaged better than 8%. There's not much in the numbers to suggest anything has changed. The pandemic caused a bit of volatility, yes, but Costco still grew adjusted same-store sales 9% in FY2020 and 6% the year before. As far as e-commerce goes, the pandemic has given Costco a chance to build out its own business. E-commerce revenue grew 50% in FY2020 and climbed another 18% through the first 22 weeks of FY2021. Remember that Costco's profit comes largely from membership fees. In FY2020, for instance, membership fees were about 65% of operating profit. which was actually down from 71% the year before. Essentially, Costco turns about 1% of its sales into operating profit, then tacks on membership revenue. That membership revenue is benefiting from customers acquired last year. Most are going to stick around for the long haul. The boost here isn't like that of, say, a grocery store, whose sales will return to pre-pandemic levels as normalcy returns. Remember also that membership revenue is part of why COST stock is expensive – and has been for years. Yes, this is a fantastically well-run company. But the model's reliance on membership fees creates faster growth as well. An extra dollar in membership fees drops to the operating profit line at huge margins. And so Costco can grow earnings faster than most any other brick-and-mortar retailer. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The market is overvalued but not as bad as some say Posted: 01 Mar 2021 08:39 PM PST There's been a lot of chatter here about PE ratios and Great Depression levels of overvalue. If we map PE10 below on a graph you can see the historic trend. Are we about to have another Great Depression? Probably not. We can see strong multiple growth since the 80s, which if we believe is representative of the new norm and will continue, suggests that we're actually not drastically far off the trend. Mapping trends during a peak is risky, this graph would look a lot different after a major correction. In general we're still a ways off the insanity of the dotcom boom. With only good news coming out short term with stimulus and countries opening back up post covid I don't see a crash soon. Can you time the market to buy low sell high? Not easily. The above graph (orange line) represents selling stocks when PE multiples are 3 above the trend and buying back in when PE multiples are below 3. You can see you massively underperform, that's before we even count missed dividends. You can find very specific numbers that give you a greater return, but they only work on one specific crash and ofter have you sitting out huge periods that'd cost too much in lost dividends. I think it's possible to reduce losses during downturns through adjustments, but it's not as easy as looking at one number. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Zoom Q4 and Fiscal year report Posted: 01 Mar 2021 09:41 PM PST Q4 Results : Revenue : 882 M (369 % increase) Net profit : 260 M (1599% increase) Fiscal Year Results : Revenue : 2.6 Billion (320% increase) Net profit : 672 Million (2557% increase) FCF from operations : 1.4 Billion Projections : Q1'22 Revenue : 900M - 905M Non GAAP earnings : 295M to 300M Full year projections : Revenue : 3.76B to 3.78B Non GAAP income : 1.125B to 1.145B Pretty solid results, Market seems to like it. Something funny I noticed in the presentation. The company itself is stating a 24 Billion Total Addressable Market in 2024. It is trading at 5.38X 2024 TAM. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| European Stocks Mixed After WHO Warning Posted: 02 Mar 2021 02:22 AM PST Investing.com - European stock markets traded mixed Tuesday, with investors digesting a fresh warning about the coronavirus as well as an abundance of corporate news. At 3:50 AM ET (0850 GMT), the DAX in Germany traded 0.5% lower, the CAC 40 in France fell 0.1% and the U.K.'s FTSE index dropped 0.2%. The number of new coronavirus infections globally rose last week for the first time in seven weeks, the World Health Organization said on Monday. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rocketlab to go public via SPAC merger Posted: 01 Mar 2021 06:57 AM PST This is the first publicly traded spac company I'm excited about. Along with going public. They've announced a new medium-lift reusable rocket and plans for human launch capabilities. The CEO, Peter Beck, once said he'd eat his hat if Rocketlab ever made bigger rockets, persued reusablity, went public, or tried to launch humans. Well they are doing them all at once, so he must be pretty confident. Rocketlab's Electron rocket has a great record in the small rocket world, but there is so much that still remains to be seen about their new rocket, the Neutron. I assume it will be using an entirely new engine architecture, and probably will not use electric turbo pumps like their current Rutherford engines. It also seems like they are dropping their use of carbon fiber based on the shiny pictures. Then, beyond the rocket science, there is the business side of things. How will they plan to compete with SpaceX and Blue Origin who each have their own satellite constellations? (Or plans anyways for Blue Origin.) Is there room enough in the growing space industry for another medium-lift launcher? Perhaps if Rocket Lab can beat Blue Origin's New Glen to space. I can think it could definitely happen? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Coupang sets $27-to-$30 price for U.S. IPO Posted: 01 Mar 2021 01:14 PM PST
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| Hyliion HYLN (electric semi truck maker, Tesla rival) announces end of year production Posted: 01 Mar 2021 10:02 AM PST I'm not big on massive Deep Dives. No one reads 80% of it anyway. Here's a Tmax summary though... Link to the Yahoo! Finance article Hyliion's bread-and-butter is making electric semitrucks. Their flagship design, the Hypertruck ERX, was reported by their founder Thomas Healy to get over 1,300 miles on a SINGLE charge. It is an electric design that uses CLEAN renewable Natural Gas to supplement and continue to charge the engine for the extra mileage. It also has an alleged 8 minute charge time. Compare it to Tesla's class 8 "Tesla Semi," which only gets 500 miles on a single charge. The price between the Hyliion Hypertruck ERX and Tesla Semi is approximately the same at $200,000 and their timelines are both aiming for production at the end of the year. Hyliion on track to send out Demo trucks to companies to test and Fleet production early '22. Tesla, however, has announced several delays and is still attempting to perfect their batteries for this semi truck, which requires a LOT more power to pull the loads it will be pulling and still get the Mileage they're promising. This is all revolutionary... if true. The risk here is that this could be another Nikola and they could be promising things they're going to fall short on. They could have problems with their engine design, they could have manufacturing delays, Tesla could come out with a much better, cleaner, or more powerful battery. However, Hyliion still seems like a good long term investment. Shares spike a little as I'm writing this from $15.51 to 16.77 and back down to $16.20 currently. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| BEP - Brookfield Renewable Partners L.P. Posted: 01 Mar 2021 11:19 AM PST BEP - Brookfield Renewable Partners L.P. Hello Is anyone still holding this stock? I would have described it more colourfully , however the rules of this group don ´t allow it hah... My point is that the firm just sold 15 mil of it´s shares... Which feels like a punch to the gut of all the shareholders.... The stock started to fall since then. Plus the last month utilities fiasco hit it as well... If you look at NEE it shows signs of recovery, however BEP seems to always lack the steam. I cannot find any other green stock that is recovering as slow as BEP. What are your thoughts on the matter? Espacially on the 15mil. share offer which feels like a dishonest action to all the shareholders... Thanks :€ BEP - Brookfield Renewable Partners L.P. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 01 Mar 2021 02:16 PM PST Anyone here a fan of CEFs? I own a few, mostly in corporate credit and a utilities fund, all of which have been around for nearly 20 years--generally I want them to have been around for the Great Recession, which destroyed many such funds. I'm looking at BIT which is a variegated CEF from Blackrock. Its performance has been quite decent despite it partially focusing on mortgage backed securities, which is a space I generally avoid in favor of equity REITs. Yields over 8%, distributions have never been cut although return of capital is happening recently, and it has an objective of income plus capital appreciation. Pays monthly, which I kind of like and which is common for such funds even though I am well aware that doesn't matter much in real terms. BIT wasn't around for the last recession, albeit. I reinvest all proceeds of course since I don't need the money currently, but I find these funds to be prime compounding vehicles since they use leverage responsibly (this fund employs no more than 50% leverage). Even better in an IRA if you choose to invest in one. Currently own HYT, PTY, which are both corporate bond funds, UTG, which is utilities including renewables, and PDT which is a more balanced equity/debt fund. I know younger people on Reddit don't like CEFs, or dividends/distributions in general, but I prefer tangible returns even if taxed since downturns in price can actually result in greater income production due to automatic reinvestment. Anyone else on this wagon for the long term? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 01 Mar 2021 06:21 AM PST CCIV (Lucid) x AAPL (Apple)? Credit u/MrAntiFundamental So with all the Lucid x Apple talk after that interview I dived deeper to see if I can find anymore articles or real information and oh man you wouldn't believe what I just found. I always believed LUCID could somewhat partner with Apple just because of Jony Ive being on board but take a peak at this article below https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/muddy-waters-takes-on-michael-klein-and-spacs-1.1522002 " according to the prospectus, while Laurene Powell Jobs, the widow of Apple Inc. founder Steve Jobs, is a partner of the Churchill sponsor via her venture capital and philanthropic organization, Emerson Collective. " The widow of Steve Jobs is a partner at Churchill capital!! How did we not see this before?!?!?!?! ..."Among these advisors are Jony Ive, Apple's ex-chief designer..." We've already known this part since before but wow... just more and more connections we're seeing between Lucid and Apple. With that interview he had today oh man, every time I see that grin Peter Rawlinson has on his face it just makes me want to buy more shares haha. LONG CCIV!! [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Under-the-radar alcohol stock looking prime Posted: 01 Mar 2021 09:14 PM PST Eastside Distilling is a company out of Portland Oregon. They trade under $EAST and are listed on the NASDAQ. Founded in 2008 and the only craft distillery that is publicly traded. It's a speculative micro-cap, but I believe it has the potential for a 2-3x return within a year (or a lot sooner with volume). Despite having a better balance sheet now than 2019 (according to Q3 earnings), shares are currently just under $2 when they were up to $6 then. With the low float and positive execution so far from new management, I expect this to continue upwards as it gains more attention. Also in 2019, they formed Outlandish Beverages, LLC to make and sell hemp derived products that don't have alcohol and that are 'outlandishly' different than what's currently in the marketplace. Being in Oregon they are in a unique regulatory environment to be able to be first to market once more CBD/Cannabis regulations are ironed out. In July of last year they appointed Paul Block as CEO. The guy has a ton of solid industry experience. He also appointed a couple of other people to high level positions, such as Janet Oak who worked with Anheuser-Busch, with aims to improve branding and their financial position. The now CFO, GEOFFREY GWIN, also bought $360k worth of shares last December at $2.64 which is always nice to see insiders taking stake. Earnings have been rapidly improving the last 3 quarters, and this was before the appointment of their VP of P&A. They recently finalized the sell off of one of their brands which adds $7.8mm to their books and will reduce their burn rate and just today announced a new in-house lineup. Next earnings report is before the end of the month where I expect they will announce further improved balance sheet, growth, and improved margins from divesting capital intensive projects. It will include all the holiday sales and they will be going over their 3-year growth plan. *Not financial advice, I just like the stock.. and alcohol.* [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| LFMD - now at a very attractive entry point and good fundamentals to go long Posted: 01 Mar 2021 09:42 AM PST Previously known as Conversion Labs (CVLB), with ticker name change to LFMD last month, LifeMD looks like a good long trade right now. The stock has tumbled from a high of $32.40. With the overall market dip last week it is providing an attractive entry point. It's trading at $22.45 at time of writing. Market cap 520M. It's a telemedicine company with massive growth: Conversion Labs Expects 2020 Revenue up 205% to Record $38.0 Million, Subscription ARR up 525% to $26.0 Million https://ir.lifemd.com/press-release-details.php#/?newsId=2160650
Of interest, recent insider buying with the Chief Operating Officer and Chief Compliance Officer both initiating an open market BUY of the stock on Feb 25, at about $20 price range. Keep also in mind that on Feb 1, Citron Research called $CVLB ($LFMD) out as a strong BUY in comparison to similar telemed $HIMS stock, based on undervaluation and superior growth.
https://twitter.com/CitronResearch/status/1356260498233294858?s=20 [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 01 Mar 2021 05:25 AM PST Over the weekend news broke on the K-Pop subreddit (Link) that a number of Kpop songs have been removed from Spotify and it subsequently turned out to be due to not reaching an agreement with Kakao M. So just like Netflix and content holders are looking to get more value for their properties either from better terms on streaming platforms or potentially (now AWS etc takes away the technology barriers to entry) make their own streaming platforms. Then the balance of power shifts back to producers of content and unless I am mistaken Spotify doesn't make any music themselves (Like Netflix does with their originals) so can be damaged more from a mass exodus. Why I think that this is of particular interest, 1) K-Pop is huge and growing internationally bands like Black Pink and BTS ranking really high in the 2020 end of year rankings 2) Spotify has just launched into Korea so not a good time to lose K - Pop Artists! What do you all think? Are music streaming going to go the way of video streaming and needing 12 different subscriptions for all the different content like video? Will Spotify be able to pivot before they lose so much content that subscribers go to other platforms? Recent update Comments from Kakao [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bear market investing strategy Posted: 01 Mar 2021 08:52 AM PST Hi all, Past few days I've been playing around with the following idea and would like someone to play devil's advocate with. I am literate in long-term value investing and holding positions. However, I struggle with the following: Should a major event / shock cause a massive downturn in the market, why not liquidate assets (stop limits) once they hit cost basis? You can easily enter new limits to re-open the exact same positions should things turn around. In the meantime you can leverage the additional cash on hand to either re-position on the same tickers at lower prices or re-think those positions alltogether and deploy elsewhere. I know that consensus generally is simply to hold, even through downturns and continuously deploy capital to DCA. At the moment I am holding much more cash than usual (>30% of portfolio) simply due to high valuations, having trimmed some positions that had major run-ups and saving additional money during Covid. While this (in my view) is a nice hedging and risk management strategy over FUD going around atm, I don't see any downsides to what I described above, should things take a turn for the worse. Regardless of which way I go about it my intent is still to deploy plenty of capital should we see a major turn of events, which I guess is the important thing in the long run. I guess, if someone is particularly keen on dividend stocks, he's be missing out on those, but the few tickers I hold that distribute dividends have slashed them anyway. Would someone be happy to chip in and share any thoughts on why this isn't a great idea? Would really appreciate some critical feedback. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| $GEO is a new position for Michael Burry Posted: 01 Mar 2021 06:10 AM PST Michael Burry predicted the housing crash, predicted the $GME short squeeze, and now he has entered a position in a penny stock $GEO, which had some crazy option activity last week. This is worth checking because:
Disclosure: long $9 calls Good luck to all, happy trading. [link] [comments]  |
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