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    Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Thread on Meme Stocks Friday - Feb 26, 2021

    February 26, 2021

    Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Thread on Meme Stocks Friday - Feb 26, 2021

    r/Stocks Daily Thread on Meme Stocks Friday - Feb 26, 2021

    Posted: 26 Feb 2021 02:30 AM PST

    The familiar "Rate My Portfolio" sticky can be found here.

    Welcome traders who just can't help them selves discuss the same exact stock that's been discussed 100s of times a day. I get it, you want to talk about what's popular, what's hot, and that 1.. single.. stock you like.. well here you go! Some helpful links just for you:

    An important message from our mod u/TCGYT regarding meme stocks.

    Lastly if you need professional help:
    * Problem Gambling: Call/Text: 1-800-522-4700 or chat online now.
    * Crisis Hotline (24/7): 1-800-273-TALK (8255) (Veterans, press 1) or Text "HOME" to 741-741

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Fundamentals Friday Feb 26, 2021

    Posted: 26 Feb 2021 02:30 AM PST

    This is the daily discussion, so anything stocks related is fine, but the theme for today is on fundamentals, but if fundamentals aren't your thing then just ignore the theme and/or post your arguments against fundamentals here and not in the current post.

    Some helpful day to day links, including news:

    Most fundamentals are updated every 3 months due to the fact that corporations release earnings reports every quarter, so traders are always speculating at what those earnings will say, and investors may change the size of their holdings based on those reports. Expect a lot of volatility around earnings, but it usually doesn't matter if you're holding long term, but keep in mind the importance of earnings reports because a trend of declining earnings or a decline in some other fundamental will drive the stock down over the long term as well.

    See the following word cloud and click through for the wiki:

    Market Cap - Shares Outstanding - Volume - Dividend - EPS - P/E Ratio - EPS Q/Q - PEG - Sales Q/Q - Return on Assets (ROA) - Return on Equity (ROE) - BETA - SMA - quarterly earnings

    If you have a basic question, for example "what is EBITDA," then google "investopedia EBITDA" and click the Investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned.

    Useful links:

    See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    What caused stocks to dump yesterday: the unwinding of $50B worth of bonds

    Posted: 26 Feb 2021 06:10 AM PST

    Last week and earlier this week, I've been posting warnings about watching out for increased volatility leading into March, and particularly toward the end of March, which is the end of Q1. We're going to see unwinding of massive positions in the pandemic and tech stocks that were successful in 2020 as institutions and professionals will be forced to change their portfolios to more value oriented stocks that will perform better in high interest rate conditions: commodities, energy, high free cash flow businesses, industrials and financials. I refer to this as "rotation" where portfolios evolve from being focused on one sector or asset class to another over time. This Spring, these rotations may not occur in a slow, calm and orderly way.

    Monday, as I said in an earlier post this week, I liquidated most of my positions in the hot stocks of 2020, including EVs, and began focusing on interest-rate proof businesses. These are businesses with lower long term debt, good free cash flow, actual positive profit margins, and good balance sheets. I'm just holding long positions in outright cash purchases of stock, so I don't have complicated positions to "unwind" (I just sell a stock to get out of a position). However, institutional and professional investors, and hedge funds, have more complicated and leveraged portfolios.

    We can't expect the unwinding of positions of so-called "whales" (big players) in the market to always be orderly or calm as the end of Q1 approaches.

    Yesterday's market dump appears to have been triggered by one or more whales forcefully selling $50B of bonds into a reluctant buyer's market. The below is a good article from Bloomberg but it's premium content so I'll summarize it below because it answers the question, Why are bond yields spiking despite the Federal Reserve setting its interest rates to banks so low and WTF is going on in the bond market?

    Chaotic Treasury Selloff Fueled by $50 Billion of Unwinding(Paywall)

    • A massive dump of $50B in bonds suggest one (or a few) positions were unwound by one or more whales

    "It wasn't an orderly selloff and certainly didn't appear to be driven by any obvious fundamental continuation or extension of the reflation thesis," wrote NatWest Markets strategist Blake Gwinn in a note to clients.

    • "Fundamental decoupling" between low interest rates and a heating economy

    Bond and lending pros are rejecting the Federal Reserve's low-interest view, which is at odds with 6-7% growth projected due to stimulus plans and rebound from the pandemic and Powell's talk of "maximum employment" plans

    The bond market's divergence from a fundamental backdrop was most evident at the shorter-end of the curve. Eurodollar contracts -- which are priced off Libor -- collapsed in record volumes as traders repriced their expectations for the path of Fed rates with few obvious catalysts.

    • What exactly happened? 5-year Treasury notes jumped 22 points, and spreads associated with those notes jumped 24 points

    The main protagonist in the bond market was the five-year Treasury note, a maturity often associated with long-term Fed rate expectations, where yields closed 22 basis point higher on the day. The so-called butterfly-spread index -- a measure of how the note is performing against its two- and 10-year peers -- jumped 24 basis points, the worst daily performance for the sector since 2002.

    Markets now see a Fed hike by March 2023 compared to mid-2023 previously, and have priced in rates over 50 basis points higher by 2024.

    But in remarks this week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell offered reassurance that policy would continue to be supportive and look beyond a temporary pick-up in inflation, especially from a low base. While Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida expressed cautious optimism on the outlook, he said it would "take some time" to restore the economy to pre-pandemic levels.

    • Bond buyers who disagree with the Fed were "on strike" yesterday and created a "liquidity drought"

    A number of more "technical-style" factors were in the mix, against a backdrop of a good-old-fashioned buyers strike...

    A lack of bond market liquidity, just when traders needed it most [i.e. during a big dump of $50B in bonds]

    • Also high frequency trading exists in the bond market too, apparently, and they suddenly disappeared yesterday in a market that was used to their presence, at the same time buyers thinned out

    "We think that a steep decline in market depth contributed to the outsized moves in yields today," wrote JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategist Jay Barry in a note to clients. Barry showed how the share of high-frequency traders in the Treasury market -- which has been on an increasing trend -- tends to retreat rapidly as volatility spikes.

    I expect to see more volatility as positions from 2020 unwind and people create whole new portfolios for post-pandemic 2021. This is a good time to look at which stocks are the ones doing well each day and why.

    Disclaimer: Not a financial professional

    Edit: I plan to reenter tech stocks hardcore once these whales are done with whatever BS they do at the end of every quarter whenever there are big changes.

    Edit 2: Here's an addition of more material offered by /u/TomatoeHaven from other references (I have not checked them)

    What impact, if any, does the Fed have on Treasury Yield?

    Note: Treasury yield briefly topped the 1.6% level on Thursday and traded at its highest level in more than a year, raising concern for investors across asset classes.

    "To be sure, if bond yields continue to rise and there is a smooth rotation out of growth and defensive stocks into value and cyclical stocks, the Fed will remain sanguine," strategist Albert Edwards of Societe Generale said in a note. "But the risk is growing that with so many bubbles blown by the Fed something will burst soon."

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/25/us-bonds-treasury-yields-rise-ahead-of-fourth-quarter-gdp-update.html

    submitted by /u/rhetorical_twix
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    Don't give up before you get good.

    Posted: 26 Feb 2021 07:16 AM PST

    Dig through my history. This isn't a self-therapy post after a down week. I've been doing this for a long time.

    The reason people fail at this is that their opening trades are way too big for their accounts. And when they are wrong, they are set-back so far that after a string of losing trades, they simply cannot afford to continue.

    Let's say I have $1,000,000 in my account. Each trade I open up is rarely above $30,000 to $50,000 dollars or 3% to 5%. And on a $30,000 to $50,000 trade, I'm perfectly happy if I make around $3,000 to $5,000 per trade for the WEEK or even BIWEEKLY! Now that does not seem particularly impressive but if I make 6 trades and 3 of them swing the right way, while the 3 others don't, it's still a pretty good week in terms of absolute dollars. On the 3 where I am wrong, I exit at -3% no matter what happens. This ensures that wins on average are at least 3x bigger than my losses. Also, I only actively trade 15% - 20% of my account. Profits from trades go into long-term positions that I never sell and only add to.

    Now let's say you start with $20,000. This means each trade should really only be about $1,000. So you're thinking, "What? I can't make a living day trading generating a $100 a week per trade on a good week!!"

    No. You can't and you shouldn't. This is why folks should not quit their day job to do this. I didn't quit my day job to do this until 10 years after I started doing this. And here's why.

    The professional trader and fund managers are not intrinsically smarter than you. They traditionally had more timely information. That gap has been narrowed with the internet. Where professionals and funds beat you is scale. Here's an exaggerated example. If I can buy 100,000 shares and you can only buy 100, and both of us need $50 today to pay bills, I have virtually no risk whereas you need to hope for a 50% daily return. Most traders who do this at home for income do not make a huge amount of money. I certainly don't. But a large account built over time allows the trader to risk less and less to maintain the same income year over year. Huge funds make shit trades every day. But each trade is less than a fraction of 1% of their book. So stop beating yourself up. The reason you're not doing well is your account is simply too small and you're relying way too much on luck. It takes time and dedication to accumulate enough money. Stop telling yourself you should be further ahead as that thinking will kill you. A lot of you literally started a few months ago. Sometimes you'll have windfalls. Most of the time, trading is boring as shit.

    So don't feel bad if you're not getting it right away. You have to tune out the posts where you see people posting wins and losses as that will get you to start gambling instead of trading. A lot of you folks are not 'bad' at this. For some reason, you've just assumed you were 'good' without enough evidence.

    Also, I'm not particularly stoic or emotionless on big wins and losses. The long-term positions in my account all got hammered these last few weeks. I will still get pumped or upset and I share with a trading buddy. Find yourself a trading buddy.

    TLDR because I am apparently not clear: don't feel bad if you're not successful yet. You need to get to a decent account size before this starts to click.

    Edit: you guys are nuts and maybe I'm to blame. I said here is an example. I even explicitly say I lose half the time. What on earth did I say that implies I'm a trillionaire?!

    Edit: I used perfectly round numbers for examples. Come on man. The message is you're struggling because you don't have scale not "I'm a superstar." In addition, I didn't start from zero and never implied that I did.

    Edit: Holy crap, I even said 'lets say I had..." to start the example. The message is about scale and needing time to accumulate. What on earth are you reading that I'm not seeing? Y'all need to chill out. Does it make you feel better to hear me say I also lost a bunch of money on paper this week as well?

    Edit: never said I was good at stock picking. The only thing I will take credit for is limiting losses.

    submitted by /u/civgarth
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    GME Short Squeeze What Comes Next Part 5

    Posted: 25 Feb 2021 08:49 PM PST

    **Warning: This is a very risky play, trade at your own risk**

    Hello, All!

    If you are not familiar with this saga, feel free to catch up:

    [First Mention](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/k3p4bc/when_will_the_gme_squeeze_happen_answers_here/)

    [Short Squeeze Explanation and Initial Thoughts](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/k688qv/for_those_who_dont_understand_the_inevitable/)

    [Timeline and Predictions](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/kaa2qh/gme_either_squeezes_or_gets_delisted_who_will_win/)

    [GME Short Squeeze What Comes Next Part 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/laln2m/gme_short_squeeze_what_comes_next/)

    [GME Short Squeeze What Comes Next Part 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/lbuhp0/gme_short_squeeze_what_comes_next_part_2/)

    [GME Short Squeeze What Comes Next Part 3](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/lgkm5t/gme_short_squeeze_what_comes_next_part_3/)

    [GME Short Squeeze What Comes Next Part 4 (Micro Update)](https://www.reddit.com/user/hooman_or_whatever/comments/lm92zw/gme_short_squeeze_what_comes_next_part_4_micro/)

    GME Short Squeeze What Comes Next Part 4

    Before we get into what happened today I would like you all to know that I have sadly closed my position. I sold at the top today and then wanted to buy back in at the bottom but forgot about a little thing called wash sales. That being said when I purchased at 147 my cost basis was actually showing at ~250. Now, this is just for tax purposes however it was factored into margin and completely eliminated me from other trades and would have kept me sidelined for quite some time. I made the decision to close my position entirely and put a large sum of my capital into ACTC which will be my next DD. Sadly, I need to wait 30 days for the wash sale to wear off before I could re-enter GME. This bars me from participating in any upcoming squeezes without substantial risk and it prevents me from entering a long position prior to the 3/25 Earnings Report. This is very sad news indeed. However, I am extremely interested in what is happening and will continue monitoring the situation. I might play options although they are entirely to hard to predict, but I will be re-entering as soon as the wash sale wears off.

    Side note: I am feeling better but not well enough to film, so for those who have been waiting for videos this week I do apologize, I will have content coming out as soon as I am able to record.

    So let's talk about today

    Well, if you read my last DD (Part 4) today went exactly as expected all the way up until the end. There was one crucial part I missed and that was the top of the downward channel which was $170. I kept mentioning $200 as an important number but completely disregarding the top of the channel.

    Alright, so pre-market kind of went sideways and that seemed to bode well for us. At open we saw a massive dip, my prediction was that this would be a sell-off of profit taking and bag holders leaving with their original investment. I still maintain that belief. We found the bottom at around $102 which was impressive to me so the following bounce seemed natural. We had several halts along the way and I want to clarify to everyone that this is completely normal.

    Halting trades happens for those of us who can't be behind a computer at all times. It gives us a moment to catch up and make our decision. It also prevents a price from plummeting due to panic selling as it essentially pauses the trade to let people calm down and orders hold off for a second. It works well in the opposite direction to prevent FOMO from kicking in and prices rising to irrational heights quickly.

    I think a majority of the price action today was a combination of poorly positioned shorts covering and FOMO for a second squeeze. That in conjunction we scalpers and day traders, I think we simply had a lot of people playing this for profits on this push which gave us the volume and buying power we needed to surpass certain levels.

    We tested a few places on the way up, and some of those tests were rejected. The volume was able to push us through after 1-3 attempts. However, we met with the top of the channel, the $170 mark and at that point, we had no more gas, we had no more volume. We simply couldn't break through, there was a false break which brought us to the days high, but not enough to truly break out. If we did break it we would have been met by the massive sell wall at $200 which we surely would not have had the volume to break. We then were completely exhausted and were forced down significantly. In short, today was not our day.

    There is a silver lining, even with AH we somehow ended up finishing over $106. This gives me hope. Let's immediately hop into what comes next.

    So...what comes next?

    All of the catalysts mentioned in Part 4 are still in effect, this has not changed. There are still many shorts sitting above $200 and some probably opened positions on the way down again.

    Tomorrow there is something still interesting to me. The fact that we ended over $100 and options expire tomorrow makes me thing there is still gas in this rocket to go for a second push tomorrow. No bears, no one really, could have expected this to close over $100 today, so a lot of calls are dangerously ITM. Tomorrow will be an all out assault for sure to try to drive the price as low as possible prior to the options expiring. Not only will this assault need to be dealt with, but nothing has changed with the $170 channel ceiling or the Wall of Troy at $200. Be warned folks, this is a battle. It is winnable, but a battle indeed.

    Without a known catalyst, this will be extremely difficult to win. Many things could happen, from whales jumping in to last minute news such as Cohen being named CEO (a leading theory regarding Ryan Cohen's mysterious tweet).

    Tomorrow, I expect the opposite reaction from today. Before I elaborate I would like to remind everyone: I am not a financial advisor, nor am I a wizard. I could be completely wrong about all of this. So please, do your research, make your decisions. Don't base your financial choices off of my one opinion.

    I digress, I expect an opposite reaction tomorrow with all the diamond handed apes riding whales screaming war cries in their final push before entering the gates of Valhalla. So I expect a massive run-up right at open. The question is...will it be enough? Pay close attention to volume tomorrow and pay close attention to important resistance points we say today: 135, 152,155, 170.

    If volume low, that means everyone is waiting for everyone else to do something; this is assuredly a losing strategy. There will need to be a significant amount of volume to break through the first wall at 135. Hold on.

    To make this more clear it is actually good to think of this like war. Imagine volume as the number of troops you have and imagine each resistance point as a gate you are storming. If you don't have the troops (volume) to break through the first gate (resistance point), you will need to regroup (consolidate) and try again. But each of these attempts uses more and more troops (volume), which means less (troops) to fight break through the following gates (resistance points).

    So pay attention to volume and pay attention to resistance points and how many attempts you are taking to break each one. Without a general (a catalyst/whale) this will be a very difficult and potentially bloody battle tomorrow.

    From the oppositions perspective, they have two options. They could either bring troops out to meet you (try to force the price down right at open) or they can sit behind their gates and hold the line (bull trap). As I mentioned before, my guess is they will bull trap, why? Because that's what I would do. If we knew you couldn't break the 170 resistance on the first attempt with your whole army, why would we be concerned about reaching it with less troops? Again, volume is key to monitor.

    If you see low volume + sharp price increase, it is likely the bull trap I am expecting, so have buy orders ready to go near resistance points and don't waste your resources trying to climb to them.

    If you see high volume + sharp price increase, then they probably sent troops out to meet you but you are winning.

    If you see low volume + sharp price decrease, then it seems your reinforcements haven't arrived and you will need a miracle to save you.

    If you see high volume + sharp price decrease, then they are winning.

    If you are driven back then at least you are driven to reinforcements (IE: If the price is sent downward then it will be a good buying opportunity for more people to jump in and help the fight). Again, volume here is key. If you see a bounce back, make sure the volume is high enough to justify it, otherwise you are charging back into battle without enough reinforcements and will certainly lose.

    After Tomorrow

    Until April I see potential for a squeeze, one even larger than the first. But every day that passes, every micro-squeeze in between weakens our side. Play it smart. Sell at what you think is the top, buy back in at the bottom. Rinse. Repeat. This gives each person more and more capital on every attempt. Placing buy orders around the resistance points to help break down the gates is essential. I want to clarify here, the only people who should be playing this are ones who are long on GME to begin with. At some point, this will all settle down, come back to Earth and you will be left with a lot of shares (especially if you keep selling and re-entering).

    The reason this works is because it's literally exactly what the shorts want. The shorts want a short squeeze. Yeah see, I said it. Everyone on every side is profiting on this phenomenon aside from the few casualties (bag holders) caught in the crossfire. They drive the price down by shorting it, then they cover to help trigger the short squeeze. You all ride it on the way up allowing them to open new very favorable positions not possible on other stocks and they ride it back down. The cycle continues.

    This is going to be the unfavored opinion, but the notion of diamond handing it til death isn't a winning tactic unless you have the capital to continue adding at the bottom. To win the war, that capital must be generated and what better way than this infinite game of profitable yo-yo?

    Diamond handing worked when there was 226% short interest and that is no longer the case.

    Diamond handing does not force a short squeeze, it only did the first time due to these conditions.

    Diamond handing worked because the shorts would be screwed if there was no one to buy their shares anymore, this is no longer reality. People are willing to sell their shares, if the price action doesn't convince you of that I don't know what will.

    There is only one way to force a short squeeze. Power. Buying power that is.

    Again, I am not giving advice. This is my perspective and how I think a squeeze is possible WITHOUT a catalyst.

    TL;DR: I am not a spreader of FUD, I am a realist. If you are going to continue playing GME then you should find a way to profit from it. Volume is key. Important prices are: 135, 150, 155, 170, 200. The potential for tomorrow squeezing certainly exists with us finishing off at $106. They would have needed to send it much lower to make this be over. However, without a catalyst it will be a difficult battle indeed. This very well may have been the second squeeze, but as I mentioned in Part 4, I don't expect it to be the last one if it is, in fact, over.

    *Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, I am bullish on GME, this is a risky trade, thanks for reading.*

    submitted by /u/hooman_or_whatever
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    S&P 500 is NOT going to crash... For Christ's sake, stop with the fear-mongering about the doomsday coming.

    Posted: 26 Feb 2021 10:40 AM PST

    So many analysts have been saying lately that the market is heavily over-valued amid the pandemic and is due for a crash or major correction at least. In all honesty, they themselves are not sure what's going to happen and are simply rolling the dice, hoping that the outcome will be in their favor so that they will be given astounding credit in the media just in the case the market does fall, which it won't.

    The government is printing more money in a matter of days than it has in 10 YEARS. Money supply has gone up so fast and the market is going up an insane amount for the same reason, accounting for the huge deflation in the value of the currency. I hate these analysts with every fiber of my being because they think that they can time the market, but they know deep inside, that they are wrong and are misguiding everyone. This can't be compared to the 2008 crisis because the fed and government are doing everything they can to support the ETFs by not only printing more money but also putting in policies to make this a fail-proof market. Why don't people understand that the government is printing money so that normal retails investors keep pumping money back into the market? This was all part of the corrupt government plan. The stimulus check is meant to save people who don't have jobs, but the government is literally giving it out to the people who DON'T need it. I know so many people who have enough wealth but still got the stimulus check. Guess where they put the check? INTO THE STOCK MARKET!!! The only way for the stock market to go is up. If you still don't believe me, keep waiting and missing out. This is the best and safest hedge against inflation.

    As always, the poor people that don't invest NOW will be left out in the big game of investing and later on realize the grave mistake they put themselves in. The rich people always benefit and the stock market is living proof of that.

    submitted by /u/Gary0915
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    Charlie Munger says Costco 'has one thing that Amazon does not'

    Posted: 26 Feb 2021 07:48 AM PST

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/this-the-the-one-thing-costco-has-that-amazon-lacks-according-to-charlie-munger-200739515.html

    "Costco, I do think, has one thing that Amazon does not," the billionaire investor said during the Annual Meeting of Shareholders of the Daily Journal Corporation (DJCO) in Los Angeles on Wednesday. "People really trust Costco to be delivering enormous values."

    "That is why Costco presents some danger to Amazon — because they've got a better reputation for providing value than practically anybody including Amazon," he added.

    Costco have been competing well against amazon. Costco is improving the e-commerce operation while also renovating the warehouses. It is a good non tech stock, with the recent selloff, people can consider to starting a position.

    submitted by /u/coolcomfort123
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    A Blackberry Discussion

    Posted: 26 Feb 2021 11:51 AM PST

    Initially posted this on bb_stock and was hoping to get some sort of intelligent feedback but should have not made that assumption. Figured I'd come here and see if I can solicit some better ideas. I'm new to r/stocks so if I've screwed up on some of your rules please let me know.

    I generally invest in high growth data stocks as I work in the industry and I'm beginning to think blackberry will be nicely positioned in a couple of years to dominate and worst case the rising tide will raise all the boats.

    Smarter people can break down the financials so I want to focus on positioning, markets, branding, board members and the AWS partnership. I'm doing my best to clean up my last post because I realize this is a higher level of discourse.

    1. Repeat CEO: you're not paying for someone to learn on the job, John Chen has done it before and can handle the stress. I'm thinking this is his swan song.

    He has a 90 million dollar bonus at a $30 USD price point for 10 days by 2023. don't think CEOs generally miss out on 90 million dollar bonuses but hey what do I know.

    1. Potential market size: IOT security and data collection. I personally care the most about their auto investment in QNX and IVY but the board of directors reflect a whole slew of other bets that are also potentially majorly profitable.

    The military side of the equation may become more material with the New board member: Lisa Disbrow. Once again I'll defer to smarter people to do market evaluation and sizing.

    1. Sales orientation/cycle: this is a company that usually deals with governments, financial institutions, and enterprise clients. They are used to the longer and more complex sales cycles associated with this so there will be no learning curve when approaching larger clients.

    2. Board of directors: I like to follow money and influence.

    Interesting highlights:

    John Chen's: CEO that delivered an exit of Sybase. Really strong history of maintaining relationships in China and on trade boards with China. See BOD link above.

    Prem Watsa: Canada's Warren Buffett. Reddit deity of justifying this investment. Fairfax financial and a value investor. He brought in John Chen

    Mike Daniels: John Chen's Sybase buddy and cybersecurity executive. Well positioned to influence across the cyber security industry

    Timothy Dattels: TPG Capital major investor in Asia.

    Lisa Disbrow: New Board member. She is the military connection and was Senate-confirmed Under Secretary of the United States Air Force, and she served as Acting Secretary of the U.S. Air Force from January 2017 to May 2017.

    Richard Lynch : Ex-cto of Verizon wireless.

    Dr. Smaldone Alsup: Pharma positioning, take a look at PharmApprove and you'll get a better sense of her speciality working on positioning.

    Barbara Stymiest: Big player in Canada. Current portfolio includes: director of George Weston Limited, Sun Life Financial Inc. and the University Health Network, and is Chair of the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research. For you Americans out there George Weston is the really big name there.

    Wayne Wouters: Strategy and policy advisor on the government front. at one point he was Deputy Minister to the Prime Minister of Canada.

    Just wanted to give a high level breakdown of the board and if you can give a more complete picture on benefits and risks of these players I'd love to hear it.

    1. BLACKBERRY IVY: Generally I don't look that deeply into products but I'll do you all a favour and break down the branding and real market value to both companies.

    It's an Amazon partnership but it's called Blackberry Ivy. Does that strike you as being a bit interesting? They avoided the Amazon brand name on purpose. BB owns the commercial relationship limiting Amazon's exposure to the customer and fear of being screwed by the 2nd largest company in the world.

    Auto execs are all aware of competition risks coming from Apple and Google. Also on the Google front they have learned from advertising that Google like to own the data. Tesla is a direct competitor so I don't see much risk losing OEM business to then.

    It's been branded blackberry and avoided touching anything associated with data ownership to make the product more attractive to the OEMs.

    They are looking for a monopoly on the censors and data transfer and have what seems like a 2 year head start. This is a rounding error for Amazon but material for bb. Amazon payoff will be the number of clients that transfer to AWS because of ease of integration and reduced costs of moving the data.

    1. Blackberry and Apple: every single employee of blackberry knows what happened with Apple and knows what happens when you sit comfortably on a lead as opposed to paying offence. If you are worried about a company culture that is stagnant and moving too slowly go find someone who is currently winning not a comeback kid.

    2. Negatives: Shit brand with reputation as an loser.

    ARR: the only thing that really matters. Of course Ivy is a subscription that wasn't a surprise. They need to show positive growth and then you can be considered a 10-20x revenue cap. Do that for 4 quarters and then you can be a cool kid and get to 50x.

    TL;DR. I want actual feedback so if you don't just post rockets or some other bullshit that would be great

    submitted by /u/ifigiglhohofdyxcvi
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    A Slap Back to Reality

    Posted: 26 Feb 2021 09:14 AM PST

    Obligatory: This is not financial advice. I am not a cat financial advisor

    ​

    I believe, in a time like this, a lot of people need a fresh glass of some ice cold water...

    Splashed right into their faces.

    Tl;dr Ape explanation: I want GME to moon, but I am concerned about people being fed false information. 1. The claim Melvin said they didn't close their short position at the hearing is a lie. Their opening statement specifically had them saying they DID close it. 2. The strategy of ITM calls boosting the price was tested last time & failed last time. These are covered calls. 3. There isn't enough of a short interest to force the price up by holding. The profit comes when HF close positions, but you won't know that happened until it's over.

    ​

    I would love to see GME rocket to the moon. And I believe there is a scenario where that can be possible. But I want to go over the popular scenarios that will deceive you into believing THEY are the scenarios that will lead you to the moon. This is not a bear post against GME. This is reality.

    • This is for those of you newcomers who thought you missed out on the last GME wave.
    • This is for those of you who were stuck holding the bag last time (me, included) and are looking at profiting from this time to make that money back.
    • This is for those of you who just didn't learn your lesson, and need a reminder of what went down last time.

    ​

    As I said, there are scenarios where GME can be squeezed. But what scenario is that? And what scenarios are not that?

    ​

    1. First thing first, I want to stop a lie that I have seen spread like wildfire. The blatant lie that Melvin Capital, during the Gamestop hearing, admitted to not closing out their short position on Gamestop. This is not true. Now, I am going to assume whoever came up with this lie, did it as a valiant effort to help boost the price of Gamestop, and probably hoped no one would call them out on their BS, because nobody else decided to waste their time, watching a 5+ hour congressional hearing about stocks. Those are about the two most boring things in the world, combined. But, you don't even have to get that far into the hearing to call this lie out for the BS that it is. In Melvin Capital's opening statement, within the first minute of it, they state they closed out of their short positions in GME days before any restrictions were put on it. You can look up videos of the opening statements, yourself. I won't baby you that much. So, in conclusion, don't rely on the scenario that Melvin never closed out their short positions. It's a lie and it needs some water doused on it.

    ​

    1. Scenario Two, possibly the most believed strategy on GME Thursday/Friday: "Keeping the price over (insert dollar amount here), by Friday close, makes (insert number here) of calls ITM, and when they cover, the price is going to rocket!" Now, I am not going to say this scenario is impossible, but it is not very likely, and it is what got many people burned the last time. Yes, it is true, keeping the price over a certain price, making a lot of calls ITM, can be good for the stock... IF those calls aren't covered calls, which I believe that almost all of them are. The week ending Jan. 22nd, there are probably a lot of naked calls. That hurt the sellers, bad, when GME closed at a very high price. Nobody expected it. That helped it a lot the following week when we saw the big spike. But then, let's run down what happened that following week. Yes, RH restricted buying on Thursday, 28th, which I do believe stopped the biggest of the squeezed, but it would not have played a role in the ineffectiveness of the "Calls ITM" strategy that followed. That Thursday, the price plummeted into the $200s. That Friday, you heard a lot of chatter of "As long as we can get the stock up to $310, a lot of calls will be ITM and we will be golden, my fellow apes! Get it to $320 and that's bonus points. That will be 90k calls that will be ITM and have to cover. That's 9 MILLION SHARES!" And yeah, A lot of that was true. There were 90k calls that would be ITM if we closed above $320. And you know what we did? We closed above $320. We closed around $328, in fact. This was it. Come Monday, that price was going to the moon. "10k isn't a meme!" We chanted. We couldn't be wrong. We did the maths. We had the DD. Diamonds don't crack, baby! Well, come Monday, there was no lift off. It was the Space Shuttle Columbia all over again. The stock fell, and it fell hard. Going back into the low $200s, dipping into the $100s even, before closing in the $200s. That's okay though. That's fine. They had until Wednesday to actually close on those Calls, you'd hear. So Tuesday came and went. Then Wednesday too. We never saw $300 again. In fact, by Friday, we were barely even seeing $100. So what happened? What went wrong? We had maths AND anime on our side. Well, what I believe happened is, those Call contract sellers learned their lesson that first week that ended Jan. 22nd, when they got screwed. They didn't let their calls be naked the following week. They bought up GME stocks when it was low at the beginning of that week, if they didn't already have them. This allowed them to resell those stocks at $320 and under, making them the big winners in all of this. But that meant these weren't NEW stocks that would help us go higher. No, these were stocks bought on the way up. They helped us peak but wouldn't help us go over the peak. So, when those calls executed, there were suddenly a lot of new holders of GME stock. Holders who saw their stocks were worth $300-$320. These weren't diamond handers, like you or I. These apes wanted their bananas NOW. So they sold when they got them. Gotta cash in those profits at some point. As WSB loves saying "You can't lose if you don't sell". Well, you also can't win if you don't sell. So now flash forward a month later, and the same theory is being pushed. "Keep the price over $100 and we will rocket to $800 come Monday. No, scratch that, $1000. No, wait, even better. $69,420!" You hear in the echo chamber, bouncing off the walls like GME does in the first 30 minutes of market open. That's not going to happen. These are covered calls that are ITM. You're not forcing anyone to buy new stocks at the current price. You are just buying stocks for $50-$100 that were already bought at $40-$60 and are keeping the stock price stagnant. And none of this is even mentioning that the amount of ITM calls this time is like a third of what it was last time. So, do not rely on this strategy.

    ​

    1. Scenario Three: "tHeY hAvE tO cOveR. tHeN wE cAn sEt oUR oWn pRicE". This is probably the most ignorant reason, and is why I typed it out like that. Yeah, I'm mocking you. Get over it. it is true, they do have to cover eventually. But not with your stocks. GME short interest is somewhere around 45-50% (too lazy to relook up the actual number), and this is after new reports showed 1.3 million more shares were shorted on Wednesday. Now, yes, that is a high amount of short interest. But that isn't high enough for the "Diamond Hands" approach. There's still 50ish percent of shares out there, not shorted. And yes, Diamond Handers hold a lot of those, most are going to be held by institutions and those institutions are about the money, not the message. They see a 3x profit? They sell. They sell to whoever is willing to buy. Could be more Diamond Handers, could be hedge funds. But eventually, Apes are going to run out of money to buy and hold with. That's when the Hedge Funds can swoop in, buy up these stocks, cover their short positions. The people they borrowed from might not be Diamond Handers, and end up selling to more Hedge Funds. When the short interest is only around 50%, you can't win with the Buy/Hold strategy. When the short interest is 50%, the short squeeze happens and you don't know it happens until it is over and the Hedge Funds have covered. You win by riding the wave up as Hedge Funds cover and then you get out near the top. That's the end of your ride. The ride doesn't just keep going up. You can only set the price when you own most of the market, and in this case, we don't. And on top of all of that, you also have people who are doing this with their bill money. The 1st of the month is coming up, that's a lot of rent needing paid. No shame in needing to sell so you can pay your bills. But, that's more shares that will flood the market. Probably a fraction of the actual amount of shares out there, but pennies add up to dollars eventually.

    ​

    And those are the three scenarios in which you have a higher chance of losing than winning. Again, I cannot stress this enough: I DO believe a short squeeze can happen with GME. But I do not believe it is any of these three scenarios that will make it happen. I'm just tired of seeing people being fed these these delusional optimistic claims that throw truth, history, and REAL DD & common sense out the window, treating GME more like a pump n dump than an actual short squeeze. it's okay to drink the Kool-aid, but maybe check to make sure it isn't spiked first.

    submitted by /u/Billybobbjoebob
    [link] [comments]

    Draftkings crushers earnings

    Posted: 26 Feb 2021 04:56 AM PST

    DraftKings is raising its FY2021 revenue guidance from a range of $750M-$850M to a range of $900M-$1B vs. consensus of $867.73M.

    DraftKings (NASDAQ:DKNG): Q4 Revenue of $322M (+145.8% Y/Y) beats by $89.96M.

    I think Draftkings has a great future and is great long term, what do you think about its future?

    https://www.investors.com/news/draftkings-stock-draftkings-earnings-q4-2020/

    submitted by /u/gorays21
    [link] [comments]

    What I've learned in a month

    Posted: 26 Feb 2021 01:16 AM PST

    So I've been trading for a month. I've thought about it for years, and started with 500 dollars a month ago, and added 500, and will do more. I'm hooked.

    Here's what I've learned. Some of these points are pontifications and others are meant to help fellow newbs.

    Edit: At the top, so's if you don't like reading posts from people who have been doing this for one month, just know that this is my thoughts about my one month of trading. If this triggers you, upsets you, bores you, upsets you sends you running for mommy's Xanax or rustles your jimmies in any sort of way, stop reading now. As for everyone else, great conversation. Thanks for the support

    ​

    1. I don't know shit, but I came in recognizing that. I'm like that with everything I start because if you think you're billy badass at something you'll never learn. My girl's dad is an trading freak and rambles on about resistance, and patterns and ex dividend dates and deep research into companies and I just sit there thinking ok, you're a master at this but I'm banging your daughter. But seriously, he's been a huge help. We've bonded over it actually, he just throws out too much at once. Anyways, the point is, mouth shut, challenge everything you see online and pay attention to everything.
    2. I've quickly learned to identify and stay away from hype and other manipulation. I dropped all my shares in a certain drone company when the stock dropped like a brick after some bozo posted a hit piece on it without stopping to check the ridiculously written sources or use common sense. That being said, I lucked out. I sold at a tiny profit, and got back in at a much lower price.
    3. I've realized that if something causes a stock to explode, the prime time to get in on that train has already passed by the time I hear about it so there's no point in rushing to get in on it or putting everything on it.
    4. Quickly trying to turn around stocks within days for a quick buck rapidly lost its appeal and I've drifted over to mid to long term holds
    5. There's a bunch of loudmouth assholes all over the yahoo message boards and I wish it'd get moderated. I want to see useful posts, not spamming links and people telling other people how much money they have and how stupid everyone is.
    6. I do check my account all the damn time. It's addicting.
    7. Those of you who post well thought out posts backed by great DD and facts, I see you. Thanks. It's honorable to take the time to help out others when you get nothing in return.
    8. Those of you who spout off nonsense like you think you know what you're talking about but you don't, you just want to appear smarter than everyone else to make up for the fact your dad never thought much of you, I see right through you, and don't think much of you either.
    9. I get the sense that many new investors think they're special, the stocks they buy are special, they assume they're going to hit it big because they believe the loudmouths saying they made a million in a day and I suggest that you remove the egocentric view and look at it objectively. It's a VERY big lesson I learned in my long sports betting career.
    10. I'll say it again. There's much to learn. Last two weeks I've learned what all the numbers and statistics on stocks were (yields, earnings, dividend, 52 week high/low etc). Now I'm focusing on researching companies and comparing what i find to how the stock behaves. Next I'll move on to candlestick patterns and how to anticipate them. Trying to absorb everything at once you'll fail
    11. Options, calls, warrants - Nope. If I don't understand it, I don't do it. I feel a pang of pity when a new investor loses everything because they jumped into that stuff without understanding it.

    Edit: I don't mean I'll never use them. I just mean I need to understand how they work better before I start messing with them

    submitted by /u/AlcoholicWombat
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    (2/26) Friday's Pre-Market Stock Movers & News

    Posted: 26 Feb 2021 05:31 AM PST

    Good morning traders and investors of the r/stocks sub! Welcome to the final trading day of February. Here are your pre-market movers & news this AM-

    5 things to know before the stock market opens Friday

    1. Stocks try to recover from Thursday's tech rout

    • U.S. stock futures were choppy as tech stocks tried to recover from Thursday's rout that dragged the Nasdaq down 3.5% for its worst single-day performance since October. Tesla fell slightly again in Friday's premarket, a day after sinking 8% in a brutal week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average on Thursday sank 559 points, or 1.8%, from a record closing high the previous session. The Dow had its worst day in nearly a month and so did the S&P 500, which lost almost 2.5%. The culprit behind the selloff was the rapid rise in bond yields.

    • All three stock benchmarks were tracking for weekly losses. Ahead of Friday's trading on Wall Street, the Nasdaq was clinging to a gain for February, which started off strong. The Nasdaq was down nearly 7% from its Feb. 12 record closing high. The Dow and S&P 500 both remain solidly in the green for the month. However, the S&P 500 was off almost 2.7% from its last record closing high, also on Feb. 12.

    2. 10-year Treasury yield retreats slightly from one-year high

    • The 10-year Treasury yield retreated Friday morning, but remained above 1.4%, after surging to 1.6% in the previous session to its highest level since February 2020 and more than 0.5% higher since the end of January. The spike in the 10-year yield, which is used as a benchmark for mortgage rates and auto loans, has been driven by expectations of improving economic conditions as coronavirus vaccines are rolled out, as well as fears of higher inflation.

    3. House to pass Covid bill; Senate official says no minimum wage

    • Inflation worries are being stoked on the thought that the $1.9 trillion Covid stimulus bill — which is seen passing the House on Friday — on top of accelerating growth could overheat the economy. Democrats on Capitol Hill are trying to push their relief measure, including a federal minimum wage boost to $15 per hour, through without GOP support. However, a key nonpartisan official, the Senate parliamentarian, ruled Democrats cannot include the minimum wage increase in the bill. The decision means the Senate will likely pass a different version of the bill than the House, and representatives will have to approve the plan a second time.

    4. FDA panel to vote on J&J's single-shot Covid vaccine

    • A key FDA vaccine advisory panel is set to vote Friday on whether to recommend approval of Johnson & Johnson's Covid-19 single-shot for emergency use, which would help pave the way to for a third preventive treatment in the U.S. While the full FDA doesn't have to follow the vaccine committee's recommendation, it often does. During similar requests by Pfizer and Moderna for vaccines, the FDA authorized those companies' two-shot regimes a day after the panel of outside medical advisors backed emergency use authorization.

    5. DoorDash stock falls after company drops first results since IPO

    • As more and more Americans are vaccinated and the economy continues to open up more fully, companies like DoorDash, which has benefited from the stay-at-home trade, could get hurt. In its first report as a public company, the food delivery service old shareholders it expects some of the tailwinds it experienced from stay-at-home orders across the U.S. will turn around once the country gets the virus under control. Shares sank 10% in Friday premarket. Even with that drop, DoorDash would still be up nearly 50% from its $102 per share offer price back in December. While DoorDash late Thursday reported $970 million in revenue in the fourth quarter, which beat estimates, it also reported an adjusted per-share loss of $2.67.

    STOCK FUTURES CURRENTLY:

    (CLICK HERE FOR STOCK FUTURES CHARTS!)

    YESTERDAY'S MARKET MAP:

    (CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S MARKET MAP!)

    TODAY'S MARKET MAP:

    (CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S MARKET MAP!)

    YESTERDAY'S S&P SECTORS:

    (CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S S&P SECTORS CHART!)

    TODAY'S S&P SECTORS:

    (CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S S&P SECTORS CHART!)

    TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

    (CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!)

    NEXT WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

    (CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!)

    NEXT WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S:

    (CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S!)

    NEXT WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR:

    ([CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!]())

    (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

    THIS MORNING'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS CALENDAR:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!)

    EARNINGS RELEASES BEFORE THE OPEN TODAY:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS RELEASES!)

    EARNINGS RELEASES AFTER THE CLOSE TODAY:

    ([CLICK HERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S EARNINGS RELEASES!]())

    (NONE.)

    YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES:

    (CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #2!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #3!)

    YESTERDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS:

    (CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS!)

    TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR:

    (CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR LINK #2!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR LINK #3!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR LINK #4!)

    THIS MORNING'S STOCK NEWS MOVERS:

    (source: cnbc.com)

    Foot Locker (FL) – Foot Locker shares tanked 12.1% in premarket trading after quarterly revenue came in below Street forecasts and comparable-store sales unexpectedly declined. The athletic apparel and footwear retailer also reported quarterly profit of $1.55 per share, beating consensus by 20 cents a share.

    STOCK SYMBOL: FL

    (CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)

    DraftKings (DKNG) – Shares of the online sports gambling company rose 3.2% in the premarket after DraftKings reported better-than-expected quarterly revenue and raised its full-year revenue forecast. The company said it is seeing a substantial increase in user activation due to marketing expenditures and further legalization of sports gambling.

    STOCK SYMBOL: DKNG

    (CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)

    Cinemark (CNK) – The movie theater operator's stock dropped 2.6% in premarket action after it reported a wider-than-expected loss for its latest quarter. Cinemark was impacted by pandemic-related theater closures, although quarterly revenue did top Wall Street forecasts.

    STOCK SYMBOL: CNK

    (CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)

    Salesforce.com (CRM) – Salesforce earned $1.04 per share for its latest quarter, beating the consensus estimate of 75 cents a share. Revenue beat forecasts as well, however the business software giant gave a weaker-than-expected full-year profit forecast. Analysts are also expressing concern about the impact of the company's acquisition of messaging platform Slack (WORK). Salesforce shares fell 4.4% in the premarket.

    STOCK SYMBOL: CRM

    (CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)

    Rocket Companies (RKT) – The parent of Quicken Loans and other financial service offerings reported quarterly earnings of $1.09 per share, compared to a consensus estimate of 87 cents a share. Revenue also topped forecasts. Rocket completed a year of record mortgage volume, and announced it would pay a special dividend of $1.11 per share. Rocket stock rose 9.1% in premarket trading.

    STOCK SYMBOL: RKT

    (CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)

    AT&T (T) – AT&T is spinning off its DirecTV and other pay-TV services into a separate company, with private-equity firm TPG Capital as a 30% owner of the new entity. The deal will provide AT&T with $8 billion in cash, which it will use to pay down debt. The deal values the pay-tv services at a combined $16.25 billion, compared to the $66 billion that AT&T paid for DirecTV alone in 2015.

    STOCK SYMBOL: T

    (CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)

    Beyond Meat (BYND) – Beyond Meat struck a three-year deal to be the preferred supplier for the McDonald's (MCD) "McPlant" plant-based burger, and also struck an exclusive supply deal with Taco Bell parent Yum Brands (YUM). Investor enthusiasm over the deals helped erase losses that the stock had seen earlier after Beyond Meat reported a larger than expected quarterly loss. Beyond Meat shares jumped 6.2% in premarket trading.

    STOCK SYMBOL: BYND

    (CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)

    Airbnb (ABNB) – Airbnb reported a loss in its first quarter as a public company, but the company did see better than expected revenue as the pandemic prompted consumers to embrace local travel.

    STOCK SYMBOL: ABNB

    (CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)

    Etsy (ETSY) – Etsy earned $1.08 per share for its latest quarter, well above the 59 cents a share consensus estimate. The online crafts marketplace also saw revenue beat Wall Street forecasts. Etsy also issued an upbeat current-quarter forecast, and its shares rose 6% in premarket action.

    STOCK SYMBOL: ETSY

    (CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)

    DoorDash (DASH) – DoorDash reported better-than-expected sales during the fourth quarter, tripling year-ago levels as the pandemic prompted a surge in restaurant delivery orders. DoorDash is predicting a slowdown in orders, however, as Covid-19 vaccines roll out. Its shares tanked 11.4% in premarket trading.

    STOCK SYMBOL: DASH

    (CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)

    Nikola (NKLA) – Nikola shares fell 2.1% in the premarket after the electric vehicle maker said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing that founder Trevor Milton had made several inaccurate statements about its technology. Nikola had previously denied issuing misleading communications to the public.

    STOCK SYMBOL: NKLA

    (CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)

    WW International (WW) – WW earned 18 cents per share for its latest quarter, short of the 32 cents a share consensus estimate. The Weight Watchers parent's revenue beat estimates. WW is seeing strong growth in digital subscriptions but a decline when its virtual workshops are included. Shares sank 9.7% in the premarket.

    STOCK SYMBOL: WW

    (CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)

    Workday (WDAY) – Workday reported quarterly earnings of 73 cents per share, beating the 55 cents a share consensus estimate. The human resources software company's revenue came in slightly above forecasts. Workday issued a weaker-than-expected forecast for subscription sales during this fiscal year, sending its shares down 7.2% in premarket trading.

    STOCK SYMBOL: WDAY

    (CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)

    Groupon (GRPN) – The daily deals company nearly doubled the 26 cents a share consensus estimate with quarterly earnings of 51 cents per share. Revenue also topped Wall Street forecasts. Its shares jumped 13.1% in the premarket.

    STOCK SYMBOL: GRPN

    (CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)

    DISCUSS!

    What's on everyone's radar for today's trading day ahead here at r/stocks?

    I hope you all have an excellent trading day ahead today on this Friday, February 26th, 2021! :)

    submitted by /u/bigbear0083
    [link] [comments]

    $RKT short borrowing cost 81.4%

    Posted: 26 Feb 2021 09:51 AM PST

    There's already enough said about this stock if you've been paying attention. The price isn't at fair value yet. This company has value at this price and has growth potential.

    But damn, these shorts want to pay that kind of interest and a dividend through March 9th, okay then. Take the value price and the dividends

    submitted by /u/HumbleHubris
    [link] [comments]

    Let's please remind people that they can lose everything on GME

    Posted: 25 Feb 2021 03:47 PM PST

    Again, same herd mentality in WSB. The same echo chamber phenomenon.

    Yes, some sort of delta squeezing happened yesterday. Lots of nice DD posts out there.

    Still, we could perhaps guess that on 02/26 those call options might be squozen.

    Or... it could not happen.

    We don't know the delta on those calls, maybe they sold them real cheap when GME was at 200, just to hedge. We also don't know if they are covered or naked calls.

    It's clear that redditors money is not moving the needle and that the spike was caused either by covering shorts or call options being delta-hedged. In any case, don't be reassured by other people buying. Accept a squeeze like yesterday's can happen, but it's completely out of your control or other redditors'. So TRADE ONLY WHAT YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE.

    Right now WSB is again showcasing posts of people putting their life savings on GME near the top, and not a single comment with a hard, concise, word of caution.

    It's just sad at this point.

    I've got my 2 shares in. Idgaf, I can hold. But I might just as well sell at 150, 200, 300 and buy something nice for a member of my family with the free cash. Realize that is the case with a lot of people.

    There might be the possibilty of a historical squeeze and 10k, 50k, blah blah. But it's a possibility. It's not worth your life savings and your loved ones wellbeing. What if there still is a lot to squeeze yet, but funds keep repeating the cycle of bringing the price down for weeks? Are these people putting their entire savings in GME going to hold until then? No. They will panic and cash out with a loss.

    TL;DR: Only trade money that you can afford to lose. Herd mentality is very, very scary. Let's be responsible and award comments issuing caution, or report posts that show self-destructive financial behavior.

    submitted by /u/nmercado1986
    [link] [comments]

    Here is a Market Recap for today Friday, February 26, 2021. Enjoy!

    Posted: 26 Feb 2021 01:33 PM PST

    PsychoMarket Recap - Friday, February 26, 2021

    Stocks traded mixed, with the S&P 500 (SPY) and Dow Jones (DIA) pulling back while the tech-heavy Nasdaq (QQQ) rose, rebounding from its worst selloff since October. Market participants continue to nervously eye rising Treasury yields.

    The saga between market makers and retail traders continues. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) temporarily suspended a list of companies from trading due to "questionable trading and social media activity," according to a statement from the Commission. The SEC alleges that "Certain social media accounts may be engaged in a coordinated attempt to artificially influence their share prices." A full list of the halted securities can be found here.

    On Friday, the U.S. House of Representatives is anticipated to pass a $1.9 trillion COVID-19 stimulus package. The bill includes an additional $1,400 in stimulus checks to most Americans, $400 per week in augmented federal unemployment insurance, and $350 billion in state, local and tribal government relief. The bill would then head to the U.S. Senate, with many lawmakers aiming to pass the bill before a mid-March cliff for when current pandemic-era benefits are set to expire.

    Treasury yields were mostly lower today at 1.424% at the time of writing but continue to hover near one-year highs. Treasury yields are the interest rate the US government pays on its debt obligations, such as bonds. Very basically, rising Treasury yields affect the stock market in two ways: (1) it makes Treasury bonds more attractive assets for investment and (2) raises the cost of borrowing money for companies, which is why high-flying tech stocks were hit particularly hard yesterday. Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist for Allianz Investment Management said, "Driving rates higher has been a combination of higher growth expectations as well as higher inflation expectations. Until recently, market participants have been able to digest the upward drift in long-term rates, but it appears that the next leg up in interest rates is a bigger bite to chew. Looking at where real yields were at, they were simply too low when considering growth expectations, and it's likely that long-term real yields will continue to drift higher as economic data improves." In other words, expectations for more growth in the market, combined with inflationary fears are lowering demand in bonds, which in turn raises the yield.

    Highlights

    • Robinhood disclosed in a filing Friday that the company is in talks with the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) over outages on the platform during the March 2020 market volatility, along with other matters surrounding options trading and communications with customers on the platform.
    • DigitalOcean and Olo are two tech companies that recently filed to go public. DigitalOcean is a cloud-computing company, while Olo provides restaurant software.
    • Britain is seeking to build a consensus among G7 nations on how to stop large technology companies exploiting their dominance, warning that there can be no repeat of Facebook's (FB) one-week media blackout in Australia.
    • Despite the recent market selloff, shares of EV-manufacturer Fisker (FSR) are flying, finishing the week up more than 56%.
    • DraftKings (DKNG) outperformed the market after raising guidance on revenue for next year during earnings report.
    • *Note: Current stock prices are written in the premarket in the morning, so they do not reflect intraday changes in price.
    • Airbnb (ABNB) with two target raises. Stock currently around $182
      • Canaccord Genuity from $175 to $220 at Buy
      • Needham & Co. from $200 to $225 at Buy
    • AutoDesk (ADSK) target raised by Barclays from $324 to $335 at Overweight. Stock currently around $284
    • Broadcom (AVGO) target raised by Oppenheimer from $500 to $575 at Outperform. Stock currently around $457
    • Alarm (ALRM) target raised by Raymond James from $75 to $115 at Strong-Buy. Stock currently around $89
    • Booking (BKNG) target raised by Susquehanna from $2,100 to $3,000 at Positive. Stock currently around $2,273
    • ETSY with a host of target raises. Consensus price target $260 at Buy. Stock currently around $197
    • Wow, this is crazy bearish. Jeffries set a $79 price target for Facebook (FB). Stock is currently around $254
    • Fisker (FSR) target raised by Cowen from $22 to $29 at Outperform.
    • Shake Shack (SHAK) target raised by Piper Sandler from $122 to $135 at Overweight. Stock currently around $119
    • After announcing plans to double revenue by 2023, Twitter (TWTR) with two target raises. Stock currently around $75
      • Pivotal Research from $77.25 to $95 at Buy
      • Goldman Sachs (GS) from $78 to $112 at Buy.

    "The person who starts simply with the idea of getting rich won't succeed; you must have a larger ambition." - John D. Rockefeller

    submitted by /u/psychotrader00
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    Roblox DD Part 2: What the financials say, and how that ties into future viability for the company

    Posted: 26 Feb 2021 11:51 AM PST

    Hello again r/stocks. The other day I posted this thread with my product/customer analysis on Roblox using my thoughts and knowledge having dealt with the platform since its early days. I believe my insight was important as it gave information and understanding about the platform from a perspective that can't be found in any traditional analysis. If you plan to read this post and haven't read that one already, I encourage you start there. I don't expect any grown adult to engage with the product themselves to do their own DD (unless they play with their kids or something like that).

    The post blew up both here and on the identical thread in r/investing, more than I was expecting them to. A lot of good points and discussion was had, and as such, I feel the need to follow up with some more information. I was able to simply edit the r/investing thread, however, one of the links I edited with on r/stocks was disallowed and the post was deleted. So, here's my part 2 with the information you guys missed from the other thread's edits.

    A lot of people asked how I could conclude a large percentage of Roblox's player base is bots that prey on kid's accounts or inactive users. That is more of an anecdote than something you can back up with hard numbers and data, because it's obviously not something Roblox tracks itself. Every group and comments section on Roblox is plagued by bots spamming fishy links that take you to places for "free Robux" and such. There's a game on Roblox called New User Machine that tracks the total amount of players and shows the most recently created ones. Basically, it's a conveyer belt of bots with random letter & number usernames. I took that info, compared the total player base to the active one, and made my conclusion that their security and captcha are lacklustre. Their registered user count of 2.4 billion is not impressive when compared with the daily active user (DAU) count of around 30 million.

    Moving on to the financial side...

    Here is Roblox's S-1 form. I want to specifically focus on a few sections:

    We have a history of net losses and we may not be able to achieve or maintain profitability in the future.

    We have incurred net losses since our inception, and we expect to continue to incur net losses in the near future. We incurred net losses of $97.2 million, $86.0 million, and $203.2 million for the years ended December 31, 2018 and 2019, and the nine months ended September 30, 2020, respectively. As of September 30, 2020, we had an accumulated deficit of $484.0 million. We also expect our operating expenses to increase significantly in future periods, and if our DAU growth does not increase to offset these anticipated increases in our operating expenses, our business, results of operations, and financial condition will be harmed, and we may not be able to achieve or maintain profitability. We expect our costs and expenses to increase in future periods as we intend to continue to make significant investments to grow our business. These efforts may be more costly than we expect and may not result in increased revenue or growth of our business. In addition to the expected costs to grow our business, we also expect to incur significant additional legal, accounting, and other expenses as a newly public company. If we fail to increase our revenue to sufficiently offset the increases in our operating expenses, we will not be able to achieve or maintain profitability in the future.

    Roblox is currently relying upon their Daily Active Users (DAU) to increase past their record all-time high to achieve profitability after a history of net loss. This record was achieved mostly likely due to the current pandemic keeping kids locked inside. They touch on this here:

    We have experienced rapid growth in recent periods, and our recent growth rates may not be indicative of our future growth or the growth of our market.

    We have experienced rapid growth in the three months ended June 30, 2020, September 30, 2020 and for a portion of the three months ended March 31, 2020, due in part to the COVID-19 pandemic given our users have been online more as a result of global COVID-19 shelter-in-place policies. For example, our bookings increased 171% from the nine-months ended September 30, 2019 to the nine months ended September 30, 2020. We do not expect these activity levels to be sustained, and in future periods we expect growth rates for our revenue to decline, and we may not experience any growth in bookings or our user base during periods where we are comparing against COVID-19 impacted periods (i.e. the three months ended March 31, 2020, June 30, 2020, and September 30, 2020). Our historical revenue, bookings and user base growth should not be considered indicative of our future performance. We believe our overall acceptance, revenue growth and increases in bookings depend on a number of factors, including, but not limited to, our ability to:

    • expand the number of developers, creators, and users on our platform;

    • provide excellent customer experience and customer support for our developers, creators, and users;

    • increase global awareness of our brand.

    The bolded bullet points here tie in directly with points I have mentioned in my original post, along with this section here:

    We depend on our developers to create digital content that our users find compelling, and our business will suffer if we are unable to entertain our users, improve the experience of our users, or properly incentivize our developers and creators to develop content.

    Our platform enables our developers to create experiences and virtual items, which we refer to as user generated content. Our platform relies on our developers to create experiences and virtual items on our platform for our users to acquire and/or use. Our users interact with these experiences, which are largely free to engage with.

    Largely free to engage with - this echoes my previous sentiment in which few players are really seen spending money on this game, at least compared to the amount who don't.

    So, all that being said, where do we stand currently?

    • Roblox has developers bringing in millions of dollars, with one of them reportedly bringing in $50 million as of 2020.
      • Another thing to note here that I thought was funny was the President mentioning his Roblox account being a company goal. Ambitious, or last-ditch effort at marketing?
      • This information is taken from the 2020 Roblox Developer's Conference.
    • Roblox has an Amazon store selling merchandise and toys, the latter of which are also available in stores worldwide.
    • Roblox runs its own data centers to deliver its platform.
      • For the nine months ended September 30, 2019, direct infrastructure costs were $58.2 million, or 13% of bookings, and grew by 66% to $96.8 million, or 8% of bookings, in the nine months ended September 30, 2020.
        • This data is taken from the S-1 form.

    So, it's clear that the company is well cemented and has elements that should signify growth, but it's still unclear why such significant investment and presence in the online video game market has not yet translated to profit. This makes it difficult for me to make a bull case for $RBLX. The DPO on March 10th is expected to be around $45. Had this offering been in the single digits or teens, I believe a great long value play could've been made. For me, $45 is a bit too rich for my blood for a company that is hinging on continued growth past the pandemic and a lot of other things going right that should have already happened in the last 16 years that they have been in business.

    Moving on...

    This comment chain from the r/investing thread is a great read and offers the developer insight I was looking for in the original thread. A lot of Roblox's viability for future growth hinges on continuing to grow as a game engine & platform rather than just a social platform for kids that happens to have games. Here are my thoughts on that, as things stand now.

    For Roblox to be taken more seriously as a game engine, like Unity or Unreal, they need to continue to rebrand and move past the image of "kid's Lego game/Minecraft alternative", which will consume even more capital than they're already investing, not to mention the costs of simply going public. Their VC funding last year leading to their 30M valuation is 7x bigger than the funding of the previous year. Whether that symbolizes huge future growth or dumping the company on retail investors as a backup is up to your belief in the company.

    The game engine uses Lua, and it has improved a lot in the past years. There are some images showing what's possible on the r/investing thread's 1st edit. Looks great, right? Yes, but their target demographic doesn't have cutting-edge PCs that can run those graphics. From their S1:

    68% of our engagement hours on the platform were from users who signed up through the Apple App Store and Google Play Store.

    These kids play on tablets, not supercomputers. That being said, any game developed in Roblox needs to work with the economy of the website. Unity and Unreal don't suffer from this, because they were never a social platform for kids. Whether or not that is a limiting factor to growth depends on the games developers want to make. You must also keep in mind that whatever is developed on Roblox needs to be gobbled up by an age group that is predominantly under 13. From their S1:

    For the nine months ended September 30, 2020, 54% of our users were under the age of 13.

    A lot of accounts could have fake birthdays, lending further to the idea of a young player base. As a result, complex games with cutting-edge industry tech isn't the cash cow here. This means that all the money invested in improving the platform might not result in tangible returns. Furthermore, the most popular games are cash grab "simulators" and carbon copies of games that already exist, sometimes with stolen assets. That presents a copyright problem if Roblox is to continue expanding.

    If you got this far, thanks for reading, and best of luck in your future investments.

    TL;DR: No TL;DR. This is not WSB where I feed you positions to take or hype up a stock so we can all win/lose money. Read my post, do your own research, and make your own educated decision if Roblox interests you as an investment.

    submitted by /u/SLUT_STRANGLER
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    Beware of Pump and Dumps: Case Study

    Posted: 26 Feb 2021 02:16 PM PST

    I like to consider myself a pretty decent investor. Nothing legendary, but I've picked up a few patterns in the few years I started using Reddit for investing advice.

    One thing I like to think I picked up were classic signs of a pump and dump. These stocks usually involve a very low market cap, unreasonable hype, and insane price targets. A large amount of awards should also tip you off.

    I was so sure of this highly upvoted post was a pump and dump that a set a reminder. I wanted to come back to try to use this post as sort of a "warning" considering everyone was saying how "all-in" they were

    Here's the warning comment I wrote on the top comment

    People don't realize this has all the signs of a pump and dump

    Extremely low market cap

    WAY too many words. Nobodies reading that shit

    Has a bunch of bolds and italics to make it look legit

    Shit stock that's been shit for awhile

    Outrageous price target. Seriously, over 100% in a week? What in the fuck?

    I bet you my entire life savings 90% of the people who bought in have no idea what this company is and stopped reading after "biopharma"

    RemindMe! 2 weeks

    The post was posted a day before its complete highs Just wanted to use this post as an example/warning to new investors. Don't believe everything you hear and read. Do your own DD

    submitted by /u/StarksTwins
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    This downturn / rotation is fun!

    Posted: 26 Feb 2021 08:12 AM PST

    We finally get to see some intra-index movements again. For the past years, all industries have largely gone up and down together (granted, tech outperformed and companies hit by covid were down).

    To me, market like this is what allows you to be an actual investor, instead of just dumping everything in the SP500.

    submitted by /u/gitwiz89
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    Trading/short team investing - the only rule I follow is No-Rule

    Posted: 26 Feb 2021 06:17 AM PST

    Guys

    A lot of "experts" have been giving us advice on the rule of thumb in trading/investing etc. I've been in the market long enough to honestly tell you that the only rule I follow is: There is no rule.

    If you've been in the market during the "lost decade" where the NASDAQ hit ATH then crashed and stayed down for a decade, you'll learn that it's a lot easier to find 10 stocks that give you 1% gain than one stock that gives you 10% gain a month/week/day. That's the reality.

    There's nothing wrong with FOMO – as long as you are realistic in your expectation. Buying at the absolute peak is extremely rare. If you bought GME at 300 and got out at 305 you are fine. In fact, buying stock on the way up is the definition of momentum trading. If you bought at the absolute peak then be thankful. The fact that you were on your computer buying that stock may save your life – with that luck, a meteorite would have crashed on you if you walked out outside at that exact moment.

    There's nothing wrong with cutting loss early. A single big loss can wipe out months of little gains. If you are willing to take a loss that equals last week's gain then that's fine to sell there. You may miss out if that was a temporary correction, but you could have saved weeks of gains you've accumulated if it was not.

    The fact that you are putting money in the market (index ETFs are recommended by people smarter than I am) means you already on a winning track. It takes a significant amount of hard work, dedication, and ass-kissing to get an extra 2%-3% raise in your salary (compared to the average salary raise). It takes an extraordinary amount of effort to get 5%-10% on top of the average raise.

    The market is the same way. It takes no work to get a 3-5% gain in the market a year. It takes little work to match the SPY/VOO – just buy it. It takes much more work to beat the SPY/VOO. There's no easy way out. Either way, money in the market goes up quicker than your salary and that is the winning position.

    I day trade mostly and here is where I am at:

    Date / YTD realized gain

    2-19 / 129,556 (last Friday)

    2-22 / 133,738 (Monday)

    2-23 / 145,436 (Tuesday)

    2-24 / 145,591 (Wednesday)

    2-25 / 149,100 (Thursday – last night)

    After a while, you will develop your own way of making money on red days/weeks/months. I've learned more during the dot-com crash, the housing crash than the bull market following that.

    I bought Nvidia, TSLA yesterday just before closing. I bought PLTR, HD, AAPL early this morning pre-market. We'll l see how that works out for me but so far I like the direction TSLA, Nvidia, PLTR, and HD moving up until 9:10 which is now.

    Keep in mind; I am not shooting for the stars. I'll get out of Nvidia the moment it goes above 560, for example, and will do the same with HD @ 260, etc. If Nvidia doesn't get there quick enough and hover around 550, I'll take that too. What if HD stays at 257 for a while? I'll cash out too. There's no fixed rule, no fixed target - that's how I roll.

    submitted by /u/paq12x
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    Cold calling from Fidelity due to market volatility. Have GME in my portfolio.

    Posted: 26 Feb 2021 02:05 PM PST

    Just got a cold call from a Fidelity rep who started off the bat with " calling you due to market volatility and uncertainty and help me diversify.." I was kind of perplexed on why he called me specifically, he just repeated same thing and that he could provide me with free advice. I told him to beat the dust, as I am not near the amount of $$$ in my account where I would need his "free advice". Only after I hanged up I realized that the only volatile stocks I have are GME and SPCE.

    That makes me wonder if they are calling GME owners or is it something standard?

    Been with Fidelity for about 15 years now.

    submitted by /u/UserNotTakenYet
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    How to analyze dividend stocks the right way

    Posted: 26 Feb 2021 06:57 AM PST

    Hello,

    So I don't know where to find this, I've seen different people focus on different stats.

    When you are looking for a dividend growth stock, what do you look for?

    If you can just give the stats and why. All I know is that it is recommended to buy blue-chip stocks since they are safer and have a history of paying dividends each year plus stock appreciation(not much).

    Thanks in advance, if this isn't the right sub let me know, ill take it down.

    submitted by /u/DiegoRo08
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    Treasury Rates Are Still Lower Than 2020

    Posted: 26 Feb 2021 05:04 AM PST

    ZOOM OUT and you'll see rates that low were impossible to sustain forever. Rates still haven't mean reverted and risen to the levels they were in 2020. (Starting at 1.88%).

    I get the whole rate of change argument but these levels are still at all time lows and we've seen similar jumps throughout the decade. (2009 and 2013 had 70% jumps).

    Everybody is really looking forward to that attractive 0.75% savings account and is gonna sell AAPL to invest in such a lucrative, life-altering investment.

    This isn't the 1970s with guaranteed raises pegged to the inflation rate.

    But markets gonna market.

    submitted by /u/thetagodfather
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    Average Down

    Posted: 26 Feb 2021 08:24 AM PST

    My portfolio has really taken a hit the last few weeks and I am down almost 35 percent. I have averaged down about as much as I can at this point without dipping into margin or not getting bills paid. Neither one of the last two will happen. LOL 😆 I am a long term investor and hold for years but concerned with the new administration and fear that there is major manipulation in the markets. As for now I am riding it out and praying it does not get worse. Anyone else in my position? Any long term advice?

    submitted by /u/sunshine6ft6
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    Is WMT at a good buying price right now?

    Posted: 26 Feb 2021 11:00 AM PST

    I've been eyeing Walmart for a while now? Is it a good long term investment? I'm currently 21 and want to pick holdings to hold for at least 5-10 years, I'm just afraid if there's a potential decline in this company in that time span.

    It's been getting knocked down for a while, anyone bullish? Bearish? Buying up?

    submitted by /u/JustCantGoTitsUp
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