Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion Wednesday - Feb 03, 2021 |
- r/Stocks Daily Discussion Wednesday - Feb 03, 2021
- GME short squeeze what comes next part 2
- Let's Get Back to Boring Stuff Like Commenting on People's Portfolios.
- Old fart advice for young investors
- Why is the media still reporting on “Reddit Investors” and not hedge fund stock market manipulation?
- An In-Depth Look Into Aphria (APHA.TO) And Why This Stock Should Be A 4x Bagger At Least
- I honestly think Jim Cramer was right when he said "You've already won. Just take your profits and leave. Don't try to go for the homerun."
- GME POV: someone who already exited position
- I went from being super proud of me to being disgusted of myself in just 2 months
- It's amazing how many people jumped in headfirst that have no business investing. Some basic tips for those new to this world.
- It's scary how addicting day trading volatile stocks can feel
- Decisions are always easier in hindsight. The meme stock ride of Jan 2021.
- Tesla using AMD chips
- Just know, anyone buying new gme are the bag holders. Everyone left still needs someone to sell to
- Blackberry DD
- Reminder - Whether you own GME or not - CHANGE YOUR GODDAMN BROKER
- Will AMC recover again?
- Anyone else getting in on the IPO for Roblox this year?
- I am one of what I imagine to be millions of new investors after last week. I am wondering how this may affect the market in the short and long term?
- Stocks to keep an eye on today and buy
- Your stock picks for 2021 feat. my portfolio.
- GME taught me the importance of being independent
- Recent Volatility and the Unlikely Winners
| r/Stocks Daily Discussion Wednesday - Feb 03, 2021 Posted: 03 Feb 2021 12:00 AM PST These daily discussions run from Monday to Friday including during our themed posts. Some helpful links:
If you have a basic question, for example "what is EPS," then google "investopedia EPS" and click the investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned. Please discuss your portfolios in the Rate My Portfolio sticky.. See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday. [link] [comments]  |
| GME short squeeze what comes next part 2 Posted: 03 Feb 2021 10:32 AM PST Hello all, I wanted to post last night as many of you commenters have asked for however my building lost power and it was absolutely awful. I am currently a refuge and my ladies house and wanted to get this out to the world. Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but more importantly this is all simply speculation. If anyone wants to make counter claims they are more than welcome but word of advice to all readers. If anyone is claiming that they know exactly what is going to happen...they are lying. There simply isn't enough current data to push this either direction. I am a bull, big time and I would like to explain why. First let's talk about yesterday There are a lot of claims of short ladder attacks and the counter-claim is that it was MM's moving the price down. One thing appears certain, there is some sort of manipulation happening in an attempt to drive the price down. Whether this is MM's, HF's, or simply retail shorts and bears; there are a strange number of exchanges happening in a clear effort to lower the price. You can check out the real time quotes here. Another large thought about why the price should have gone up yesterday was because of the options thats expired Friday 1/29 ITM. The rule is T+2 meaning these individuals have two business days to cover. Well, we expected a surge of these individuals covering and it simply never came. Everyone was glued to the screen Friday ATH waiting to see the spike of covering...but it never happened. Monday again...never happened. Tuesday...oh boy this is their last day they have to cover! Yet...they didn't. So what does this mean? Well, I see two possibilities.
I'm in the camp of number 2 hence why I am a bull. If they didn't cover that results in a Failure to Deliver which you can learn about here. So what does this mean for us? Well, that would explain the tremendous price drop as FTD's create "phantom shares" a problem GME is already facing. This will dilute the price tremendously and the amount of FTD's that probably occurred would greatly dilute the price. "With forward contracts, a party with a short position's failure to deliver can cause significant problems for the party with the long position. This difficulty happens because these contracts often involve substantial volumes of assets that are pertinent to the long position's business operations." From the earlier mentioned website regarding FTD's. Now this is truly fascinating. The 2008 crisis was largely in part due to a mass number of FTD's. In fact, FTD's sometime intentionally happen...just to drive the price down for FUD so they can then cover at a better price. So if this is correct, what happens next? Well, either you can read about it here. Simply put, the individual has to close out the positions after 13 consecutive settlement days of FTD. So all this logic about T+2 was actually just the logic to begin the FTD countdown, if it hasn't already started at the beginning of this. Now, I'm not saying "nobody sold" of course people did. But volume is key and the interest in buying outweighed the interest in selling 3-1 Monday and Tuesday. Of course trades are 1-1 but interest was on the buyer side. Obviously, I don't even need to mention it but restricted trading really is what screwed this thing to begin with. My opinion? It wasn't to prevent a massive short squeeze, it was to buy them time. Today So why the hell did it spike this morning? Two reasons.
Now, before I get into the rest I want to address something: the fundamentals. There is a disturbing echo chamber around the idea that GameStop is a dying brick and mortar retailer and there is no chance at survival. That is simply not the case. I don't want to do a full GME DD here because this is about the second incoming squeeze. However, let me put it to you this way: If you were told that a new company was IPO'ing and it was coming to the market with an infrastructure, new talented team, 50 million customers and their plan was to become an e-commerce company to compete with Amazon; their plans for the physical locations was to be game-centric, a place for e-sports to compete, desktop building kiosks, and the newest systems and physical copies of games for those who still love having a physical copy. Not just that, but this company already has revenue share deals with Microsoft and other bigwig companies. Knowing all that information would you be interested in this company? My answer is an easy yes. The thing with digital transformation and companies changing direction is people get so lost in what the company used to be they can't see what the company is planning on becoming. If this was a brand new company that Ryan Cohen was leading with the same exact model people would be all over the concept. Enough of that. Let's talking about what is still going on today which is truly fascinating. So the good news created a large uptick follow by a combination of people escaping with whatever gains they could salvage and some more clear manipulation regardless of the source. But then what? Well, after the bounce down a lot of people saw this as a fantastic buying opportunity which made it recover quickly...but then something interesting started happening. It started uptrending. Slowly. Steadily. Uptrending. Lower lows, higher highs; no sight more beautiful. My interpretation? We found the bottom of the bears attack. The news has been consistently saying the squeeze is over but one and at time they are saying their might be a second surge and their reasoning is if retailors see this price drop as a buying opportunity instead of red flags, it will surely send the price up. The logic there is simple: if people are buying stock it goes up, if people are selling, it goes down. So today is pure magic. It doesn't need to be a wild swing up to be promising. What it needs to be is slow, consistent buying pressure even during restricted trading. But all the shorts covered! Simply not true. That is a fact. All we know is what people are telling us. Melvin says they covered. It will be the third time they have claimed that. Do I think they covered? Yes, I do. Does that matter? No. Now even if Melvin and others covered and the S3 figures are right that means the guess right now is that this stock is still 57% short. Based on their Twitter this isn't including newly opened positions which anyone in their right mind would certainly open a short position when it was 3-400. They thought this bubble would pop and they would make a quick buck. They saw it get down to $85 and started celebrating...but it starting climbing...uh oh. Truth is, no one will know the real numbers until the 9th. I think it's a little too much tin foil hat to says those numbers will be misconstrued but what we have witnessed over the past few days...it's possible. So let's talk about who is currently holding GameStop. Well, a shit ton of degenerates that have lost millions of dollars and seemingly don't give a shit. They are here out of principle, truth be told, so am I. I absolutely refuse to give any shares to the shorts after the crap they pulled last week. So we have a ton of bag holders refusing to sell and a ton of people wondering if now is the time to get in for a potential epic second short squeeze. No one is going to sell at these levels. Some people here and there but it simply isn't worth it, not with so much potential for a second squeeze. So when will this second squeeze happen? If the newest shorts are smart, it already begun. If I took up a short position and saw this start climbing again after everything it has been through, you better believe I would be covering now while I have profits. Not all of them are going to do this, which is why as the price gradually rises the potential for a larger and larger squeeze is exponential. There is no telling when it will happen. It could be a slow climb for the next couple of weeks before it pops. The 9th will be a huge indicator of what is to come, if that has anywhere above 50% short interest you better believe everyone is going to hop right back into it. It could happen as early as this week. It could be post earnings when Papa Cohen tells us his majestic plans during ER. It could be that ER will actually be fantastic on 03/05 because it will have the console cycle numbers. Look at GME charts in the past, the console cycle always makes the stock pop and with all this attention that very well could be the catalyst. In summary I wanted to do deeper analysis for you all but I knew some of you were really looking forward to the next post and my thoughts regarding the situation so I wanted to get something out there. In my opinion, a second surge, a second squeeze is bound to happen. This is a buying opportunity for those who missed the first one and I think the market and stock price is reflecting that sentiment. Positions: 1100 GME @ $16 closed 500 GME @ $20 closed 50 GME @ $120 open 236 GME @ $250 open TL;DR: I have yet to see any indication or good thesis to explain why the short squeeze would be over. Even if Melvin covered and even if S3 numbers are correct at a 57% short, these are indicators of another squeeze, potentially even more epic. The bleeding days of red on Monday and Tuesday I personally think was a combination of panic selling when premarket and ATH didn't blow up due to the ITM calls and phantom shares being created due to consistent FTD's diluting the share price. I do think these FTD's were intentional and what many are perceiving as a short ladder attack is in fact the creation and purchasing of phantom shares driving the price down. If you are a bagholder, I think it wise to hold, if you have already closed your position I would consider what we are witnessing as another buying opportunity. Final disclaimer. I have already made a significant sum of money on this GME play. This post is not a hope that you will come rescue me from my bagholding status. The money I put back in was money I was willing to lose and I came back in out of principle to stick it to the man. Good luck everyone and be grateful to be alive during this time, this will go down in financial history quite possibly forever. Retail investors have more power than we think. [link] [comments]  |
| Let's Get Back to Boring Stuff Like Commenting on People's Portfolios. Posted: 03 Feb 2021 09:14 AM PST Now that the craze is winding down and im not waking up at 6am everyday again, I decided to put my money into more "long-term" investments. Comments on possible diversification paths and such would be appreciated. Blackberry (BB) - As many people on here have said, the company has some good potential, perhaps 1 or 2 years from now. I bought this at around $12 before the craze and didn't sell it at its peak. If it drops or stabilize, ill probably average down and just hold out for the long run. Plug Power (PLUG) - This used to be the darling of reddit and saw extordinary growths last month. As the biggest of the upcoming hydrogen power company (and one with actual tech and contracts); i believe it still has room to grow. I believe its building a gigafactory in Rochester which will allow them to scale nicely with increasing demand on the international stage. Also, Biden is set to announce his plans for infrastructure (including climate change) this month so maybe we can see some short term boost from that. Palantir (PLTR) - Cybersecurity and data analytics is becoming increasingly more important. But, the real reason why I have this is because I got this when I just started out investing and now I'm working at a place that has a confidential relationship with them so I can't sell in the foreseeable future. Canoo (GOEV) - Probably the most speculative of the bunch. Canoo is an up and coming EV company in an arguably already bloated space. I like that they have already working technology than their other early stage EV counterparts. And I think they could disrupt the market with their design and tech. The cons is that they won't make it to the market until 2022, which they will face some pretty stiff competition. ICLN - Green energy may already be a slightly bloated sector but its a sector that will continue to grow because the world NEEDS to pivot. Plus, with the "rise of retail traders", I honestly believe we should put our money in social impact and into industries we believe in on a moral level. Any possible cuts, swaps, or additions? Any sectors I should look into to diversify? [link] [comments]  |
| Old fart advice for young investors Posted: 03 Feb 2021 12:05 PM PST There seems to be a lot of interest in stocks from young investors. I imagine that many will make their way from WSB to this sub because WSB is a bunch of monkeys flinging poo. You may have lost some money and now you want to explore stocks from less of a Meme and emotional perspective. There is nothing wrong with Meme stocks. Meme stocks can be fun. I have had fun with it. I am also a 42-year-old man with rental properties, commercial properties, and a few small businesses. BB, NOK, AMC, and even GME are all fine. The DD is fine behind all of them. The issue is that if I lose $1,000 then I can write myself a check from one of my businesses for $10,000 to make myself feel better. That is not a brag...it is simply sharing that people come from different places in life. You are just starting off life and probably have far fewer resources and every dollar matters more. I challenge anyone to CMV but I am not a big proponent of stocks as a core investment strategy. Here are my reasons why.
I like stocks as a small part of an overall investment strategy for young people for the following reasons.
Building wealth through stocks is like trying to build a house one brick at a time...just you, and you are gathering the straw, digging the mud, and pressing each brick by hand. When it rains many of your bricks will wash away. If the sun shines for enough days then you will make good progress. The problem is that all markets cycle. The housing market cycles. Petroleum and natural gas cycles. The stock market cycles. I believe that a full market cycle is around 18 years with around 7-12 years in an up cycle and 6-11 in a down cycle. In the stock market, they call these bull and bear markets. We are currently in one of the longest bull markets on record due to interest rates and the feds printing money. No one has a crystal ball but sooner or later the market will peak. When this happens Boomers will be the first to pull money out and put it into bonds or CDs. Boomers are as big of a whale as retail can get. Anyone and I mean anyone could have made money in the current market. If ten years ago you had asked a five-year-old to pick five of their favorite things and invested in their choices you would have made money. That could be Barbies, YouTube, Pizza, Sprite, and their Dog. They would have made money on any stocks you picked around those five things. There will come a day sooner or later when Boomers and GenX will see trends in the market that they don't like. Boomers own multiple houses and are deep into retirement. GenX is a small but powerful generation that is now on the back Nine Holes of life. Gen X will largely inherit the wealth of the Boomers. There will come a shift towards mitigating losses and that shift is not far away. When they move their money from markets so goes the market. Is it fair to say that one of the longest bull cycles on record could transition to one of the longest bear cycles? Let's look at Millenials...a generation that is struggling to just buy a home. Boomers own a few. GenX may own a couple and Millenials that are now entering into their forties struggle with one. Millenials are a massively sized generation that I believe is now bigger than both GenX and Boomers combined because Boomers are dying at a rapid pace. Millenials are the generation that were adults starting life and careers in 2008 and full-blown families with Covid-19. Maybe one of the unluckiest generations. GenZ is this very talented and intelligent generation. Y'all are creating disruptions in culture, in politics, and in Wall Street. You are savvy and demanding. Giving billionaires the finger while pissing on the front door of their mansions. But you need to be careful. Stocks are not the key to your success. They are just a single tool in your toolbox. A better tool may be early homeownership or owning a small business. Life is about options...and I am not talking about the gambling options of Wall Street. I am talking about the options of having equity in a home to adapt to economic swings. I am, talking about the options of owning a small business where your day to day decisions make you smarter and more valuable. Where you own assets that make you money. Most importantly you have control over your own destiny. I am not telling you not to invest in stocks. I am just telling you that it should be a limited part of your overall strategy in life. Unless someone has been through two complete cycles of the stock markets then I would take their advice with a grain of salt. General advice:
Number seven is important. For example, I like Robotics, AI, and Automation. I like these is two specific areas....transportation and mining. I operate in the Transportation industry. I know that very soon human drivers will be eliminated and self-driving trucks will take over. Trucks will be loaded, driven, and unloaded without a single human being doing any of that work. With that will come an entire supporting industry. Tow trucks will need to be automatically dispatched when trucks break down or in accidents. AI will need to be involved in decision making. I will see these changes before I am dead and I am 42. I like underwater mining. Our oceans are the next frontier and the next gold rush. We have areas of sea bottom that has very little life but is rich in gasses, minerals, and thermal energy. Automation, AI, and robotics will play a huge role in underwater mining. I will see this transition start in my lifetime and I am 42. Beyond that, once we have machines that are capable of underwater mining then we have the basics for machines that can mine inner-system planetary objects. From nearby asteroids to the moon, to thermal energy collection closer to the sun, to Mars and beyond. The wealthiest person in existence will be the person that is able to start the first off-planet mining operation. Where there is no EPA, no taxes on land, where we are not building sub-divisions next to mines. Where we don't have to worry about the ecosystem. Where gasses and pollutants are not pollutants because there is nothing of consequence to pollute. The largest land-owners in existence will be the owner of off-world mining operations. That may not happen in my lifetime...but it may in yours. I like investing in Meme stocks because they are fun. But I also invest in Robotics, AI, and automation with one-single question....is this company taking humanity one-step close to automated transportation or underwater mining? I invest with a purpose. Sure I will grab up some value stocks every now and then. People are going to be flying more than ever in a few years. People are going to be more social than ever in a few years. Shoot Condom manufacturers are a buy right now because people will be..........you get the idea. The whole reason that I wrote this excessively long post is to maybe get you into thinking about your strategy....what is it? And to caution you on being "all-in" on stocks. Stonks don't always go up. [link] [comments]  |
| Why is the media still reporting on “Reddit Investors” and not hedge fund stock market manipulation? Posted: 02 Feb 2021 04:04 PM PST Posting here because I got banned from a different sub for a day for this post from auto-mod for some weird reason. Want to bring the discussion around certain stocks right now to a media perspective. ~~~~~~~~~ Why is the media still reporting on "Reddit investors" and not hedge fund stock market manipulation ? Highly illegal shit is going on and no one is reporting the story. Short ladder attacks, stock market manipulation, clearing houses, Certain brokerage apps restricting free trade, SEC not taking action... Who's going to report the big bust of the century? Come on news. [link] [comments]  |
| An In-Depth Look Into Aphria (APHA.TO) And Why This Stock Should Be A 4x Bagger At Least Posted: 03 Feb 2021 08:04 AM PST The play: Long stocks and ATM leap calls Summary: Aphria is trading at a hefty discount when comparing price multiples to its largest viable competitor Canopy Growth Corp (WEED.TO). As of the release of the company's recent Q2 2021 financial statement, Aphria now has more revenue and a much lower net loss than Canopy Growth; however, despite all that, Canopy still has a market cap that is 4 times larger than Aphria. This I believe is a major pricing inefficiency created by the market because both companies are showing significant growth in their revenue while capturing additional market share in a growing industry while only Aphria has shown investors that is the only dominant marijuana company that can cut down costs and increases profit margins. Because of this, the premium in Canopy's market cap is not justifiable and Aphria should be valued at least as much or even more than Canopy Growth. Industry Background Info Ever since the Canadian government legalized the recreational use of marijuana in 2018, Canadian weed companies have risen to become the dominant players on the global stage. As of right now, the four largest weed companies by market cap are Canopy Growth (WEED.TO), Cronos (CRON.TO), Aphria (APHA.TO), and Aurora (ACB.TO). Of this grouping, only Aphria has consistently shown investors that it can grow its business from both the top and bottom lines all the while making mergers and acquisitions that will allow it to capitalize on the growing recreational market in the U.S. Here let me show you why Aphria has the strongest fundamentals. 📷 If you pull up Canopy's recent quarterly report and look at their income statement, you will find that even though cost of goods sold (COGS) has a slightly decreased ratio to revenue from 76% for the first 3 quarters in 2019 (145,162 / 189,012) to 78% in 2020 (213,107 / 269,916), its total operating expenses excluding COGS, is still LARGER than its revenue (operating expenses are 489,216 for 2021). What's more is that over half of this comes from SGA (Selling, General, and Admin). What this shows is that even though the company is growing, it is not becoming more efficient, rather it is becoming more inefficient. https://www.canopygrowth.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/CGC-Q2-FY21-FS.pdf As for the other two companies Cronos and Aurora, their fundamentals are even more atrocious than Canopy's. Cronos has revenue roughly 29million for first three quarters of 2020 which is peanuts compared to Aphria and Canopy. What's more is that the company is showing earnings that are HIGHER than their total revenue. I suspect this is a result of their revaluation of their marijuana inventory which is complete bullshit because it assumes company can sell it all at the current fair market price and no auditor can accurately assess the true value of a living and growing agricultural product (trust me my background is in accounting). Why this company is worth over 5bil is beyond me. Aurora is similar with tiny amounts of revenue while operating at massive losses. The company didn't even sell anything in 20q2 so I'm not going to go into great depth with either of them. Tl;Dr: The only viable competitor with Aphria is Canopy and right now Canopy is making less money than Aphria both in the top and bottom lines. The other two companies are essentially the weird kid in the class sitting in a corner eating chalk. Bless their hearts. Aphria Fundamentals Alright let's get to the good stuff. Here is a pic of part of their income statement for you to follow: 📷 Right now, COGS ratio for Aphria is comparable with Canopy. By Nov 2020, ratio is 71% (219,136 / 306,221) and 74% (188,670 / 246,712) in 2019. But if you go down the statement you will find out that in the breakdown of their operating expenses, the company actually manages to keep expenses relatively stable as revenue grows. The only line that really stands out for me is the transaction cost expense of 25.6m which relates to business acquisitions. I think most of the 25.6m is related to their Tilray acquisition that I will discuss later on. Other than that, the company manages to stabilize its expenses and its total operating cost is far less than their revenue, which is something Canopy cannot say. Tl;dr: Aphria is a lean machine while Canopy is like a toddler that took one too many steroids and suddenly grew to the size of a NFL linebacker all the while having an IQ of 4. What this means is that Canopy's growth is by no means sustainable and the only way for the company to continue operations is if it manages to grow revenue fast enough it outpaces expenses, but right now that is not the case. Tilray Merger Implications Recently in 2020 Aphria announced an all-stock merger (meaning Aphria will exchange a certain amount of their shares for Tilray shares). This is something I feel like retail investors need to look at more closely. The reason why is that the merger will give Aphria a strategic advantage of breaking into the US and EU markets. The advantage comes from the fact that even though Tilray is headquartered in Canada, it is registered as a US firm. What's more is that Tilray also has agreements with EU countries that allow it to expand its position in the EU cannabis market. Tilray has announced it has been selected by the French national Agency for the Safety of medicines and Health Products to supply Good Manufacturing Processes certified medical cannabis products in France. In addition, the company also has agreements with other EU nations like Portugal that you can examine at your own free time. Tl;Dr: Aphria buy Tilray. Tilray in U.S and deal with E.U. This let Aphria go to U.S and E.U. This let Aphria bring in big mooneee. U.S Marijuana Legalization The Democrats taking control of the White House, Senate, and Congress is the equivalent of the second coming of Christ for the marijuana industry, and no this is not an understatement. Right now, marijuana is legal for either medical or recreational uses in 15 states but is still illegal on the federal level. What this means is that companies need to wait for states to legalize individually and even when they do so, there are still significant red tapes abound that will greatly hinder industry growth. One of the most prevalent examples of red tape is the fact that marijuana dispensaries do not have access to proper banking so they operate exclusively as a cash-based business. This is because if a bank provides services to a weed dispensary, it can be charged on the federal level for money laundering. That is all about to change because the Dems in the Senate announced that one of their main goals with their majority is to end the federal criminalization of marijuana use. In addition, Chuck Schumer already announced that a draft of the bill will be introduced in the first half of 2021. What's more is that when weed is legalized on the federal level, it is actually legalized on the state level as well. This is because of something called the Supremacy Clause in the constitution that established that federal law controls when state and federal law are in conflict. "but u/gushingranny1, if that's the case, how come I can smoke pot in California huuuuh?" Well listen here you little shit, granny going to explain to ya. You see the constitution, though the Tenth Amendment delegates police powers to the states. This means that even though states cannot prevent federal prosecution of their citizens, they can still eliminate state prosecutions. Tl;Dr: Once weed is legalized on federal level, floodgates will open. You think marijuana stocks got crazy in 2017? Just wait for this one. *** For some reason I can't post pictures of the financial statements. Not sure if this is something related to r/stocks since I usually post on WSB. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 02 Feb 2021 10:00 PM PST I remember when this news article came out, people accused Cramer of siding with his hedge fund buddies, and that he was a "piece of crap" for doing so. But when I look back at the previous videos of Cramer, it seems like he was rooting for WSB the whole time, and even defended them and started the whole "we like the stock" meme. Now that I think about it I think he might've been right. Wall Street isn't some conglomerate. There are probably other hedge funds who haven't shorted gamestop. Who instantly saw blood in the water, with access to tons of data and more sophisticated tools to get a clearer picture of sentiment. Knowing that a horde of emotional retail investors, were mass buying and holding GME. So they decided to ride the wave, and now it's possible that they're pulling out, leaving the retail investor as the one holding the bag. The money wasn't transferred from the hedge funds to the people. It was just transferred to other hedge funds. [link] [comments]  |
| GME POV: someone who already exited position Posted: 03 Feb 2021 10:56 AM PST Constant lurker in r/stocks r/investing r/wallstreetbets and occasionally r/ValueInvesting (weird combo I know). Wanted to share a quick point of view of someone who got in relatively low (39) and got out in the middle (200, stop loss triggered), that I can feel a lot of people with common sense did the same. Now I dont want to blame anyone on wsb, im a big fan of some DD there and made some small risky plays with the money I was ready to lose. Originally I got into the GME on the short interest DD, when the stock had some impressive jump but it was clear that there is more room to grow considering original thesis. I was happy with every uptick day considering my total portfolio before this play was 9k CAD (ended up @ 22k CAD after exit). But at some point, as many who's been lurking on WSB I started noticing a lot of new things. First of all enormous growth of the sub, but only in quantity. I've noticed that people will be spamming to the moon, diamond hands and than turn around and start asking questions such as "Why my stocks dont move on Saturday", "How do I sell a stock" etc. Clearly people got into something they had no idea about, jumping on the hype train, which is extremely risky when you are trying to play in the environment you dont understand. Second red flag was the famous VW squeeze comparison. Every single down day people will be referring to that down slide of VW right before the squeeze. Now when you see it for the first time it makes sense, but when every single dip is referred to that one moment - it just gets super dumb even for WSB. Even scrolling to yesterday you can find some DDs referring to the dip as a last day to jump on the ship. One of the most important things that forced me to put a $200 stop loss was the entry of new players. When it was just retail vs hedge funds field, it was decently position in favor of regular investments. Even after media joined it was still a favored fight, with Chamath and Elon and Cuban being pretty vocal in supporting GME holders. Unfortunately when brokerages realized that they can't handle the trades asset requirements (especially RH, where majority of old WSB users and new retails investors are holding their positions) and SEC joined the party with rumors of investigations/suspension of trading I promptly setup my stop loss, guessing the game is over. Crucial thing to realize in both investing and speculation (like this one) is that uncertainty is bad, especially when its a negative uncertainty, especially wen majority of the retail players involved are newbies. If it was just WSB - they could hold the line no problem, I believe in the guys who can leverage their life savings on 0DTE FDs on some shaky company. But when its moms and grandmas who are investing, any negative news on TV will shake their positions. At the end of the day, their way of thinking (its either lose small now or lose EVERYTHING later). Last nail in the coffin was the whole religious approach that started over GME. When it was an original play on short interest, with actual DD and projections - everything was civil. As soon as it transformed into "stick it to the hedges", "revenge for '08" it was over, because emotions is your worst enemy in investing. As soon as you are under emotions, you cant make decisions rationally and you just lose control over your position. You start dreaming about 10k price target, driving your new lambo etc. End thoughts: I sincerely hope that squeeze happens and other people make money, but imo it got too hot and too public too early for it. Regardless if you invest or speculate - make sure you do your own DD, dont jump on a hype train (especially if you are new) and good luck in the future! [link] [comments]  |
| I went from being super proud of me to being disgusted of myself in just 2 months Posted: 02 Feb 2021 09:54 PM PST Just by reading the title you know what this is about. I lost money to AMC, GME. Not anywhere near people I see in WSB, but right now, I am down $1500. I know this is loose change for a lot of you and honestly, it's not an amount that's going to put me on the street or anything, but it was my summer earnings that I saved for a trip to New York and cities around (I am from Canada). I am a business student, currently in University and investment finance always seemed very interesting and fascinating to me. So, since Canada banned non-essential travels between US/Canada borders, I was left with vacation money which was around 3000 USD. Instead of putting it in a savings account, I decided to finally start investing. I was using subs like r/stocks, r/personalfinance, r/personalfinancecanada for forums and was doing my own market research (the best somebody can do with little knowledge), learning, and was super excited to finally find a sector I wanted to invest in. Renewable Energy. I invested all of my $3000 in $PLUG, $FCELL and the rest in companies that are safe like $AAPL, $WELL. It was fantastic. In just around 2 months, I made over 40% on my 3000$ capital and I was really proud of myself. I was motivated to do more research, learn more, and I felt good about myself (University grades were great, potential internships coming soon hopefully), it was just perfect. And then the GME, AMC thing started. So much contents, memes, to the moon post, that at one point, I completely lost my common sense, my rational part of the brain stopped working, I went from speaking like a normal person to... You know what I am talking about. My emoji recommendation changed to the rocket, diamonds, it's like I completely lost myself into a wild cocaine party full of booze and tequila marijuana smoothie with mushroom garnitures and I drank them all and decided to become a R... (As they say). My senses came back today morning once I finally noticed what I had actually done, and realized how much I went against all the single concepts and fundamentals I used to start trading. I am still holding, because well, market's closed but I seriously don't know what to do. Good companies go back up. Gamestop has nothing backing itself up except rumours of a potential short saueeze and faith of millions who went all in. It's not the $3000 (net) that's bothering me, it's just that, I started out like a normal person who was doing amazing and got turned into a cult member. I am not hating into anybody of WSB, I don't even blame them. I blame my own judgement. I learnt my lesson but then again, it's not like I didn't know what I was getting into. It was mostly stupidity and greed I think. Any advice, any suggestion, any smack in the head, reality check would be appreciated. Sorry for the rant. This is the only sane community that deals with stocks currently. Edit: I would like to thank you all for all these amazing advices, for your support and for sharing your perspectives. They are interesting and motivating. I would love to reply to all of your comments but it's getting tougher and tougher with so many responses. I just want you to know, I really appreciate it and I am grateful for all these rational explanations. Edit 2: To all of you WallStreetBets people, who are directly attacking me personally in comments or inbox, I get your sentiment and I just want you all to know I don't hold anything against any of you. I hope it hits the moon so that I regret giving up, and you all make up your loss. I feel better even if it makes me 'weak' and 'paper handed'. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 03 Feb 2021 12:55 AM PST (I am not a financial adviser. This is not direct financial advice...but still advice for dealing with investing.) I am completely floored by the amount of people who have NO BUSINESS independently jumping into the stock market, diving into the deep end and not knowing how to swim.
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| It's scary how addicting day trading volatile stocks can feel Posted: 03 Feb 2021 12:46 PM PST Sorry, yet another post relating to GME. I have always been a "boring" (aka average) investor. Broad market ETFs, mutual funds, an REIT here and there. Enter this whole GME craziness. I don't know what possessed me, but I was throwing $50k at the stock at various entry and exit points, and it scares me now to recall how addictive it was, largely because I was getting lucky and making money on it. "Oh I'll grab 200 shares at $150....wow the price just went up $50 in the last 30 minutes, let me sell real quick and I just made $10k in a half-hour. That's a solid 3 months worth of take-home pay I just made...." Rinse and repeat. Buy, sell, buy, sell, losing money on one position? Rebuy again and hope for a spike. Thank god for afterhours magic and premarket price climbs. Buy more, sell more. Fidelity restricted me for 90 days of trading without settled cash due to all of the good faith violations I racked up. It was absolutely pure gambling and it was firing off the dopamine like you wouldn't believe. I had my stock price app open all day long, watching every little price movement to get in, get out, buy here, sell there. It consumed my entire life for the last week. I ultimately got out with a profit, but shed $7k of that profit in one final stupid move which ended up being me trying to catch a falling knife. I'm going back to "boring" investing, that's for sure. I hate that I already miss that excitement. I don't miss losing $7k in 24 hours though, lol. [link] [comments]  |
| Decisions are always easier in hindsight. The meme stock ride of Jan 2021. Posted: 02 Feb 2021 11:05 PM PST I posted this in the daily, but I think given the magnitude of this, I'd make a post. I know everyone is upset that they didn't sell Thursday close to $500. But lets he honest, unless you had a clear exit strategy, why would you have? This was riding to $500 with so much momentum, it was about to once again hit every strike in the chain as ITM probably initiating another crazy Gamma Squeeze which really could have set off the MOASS. Then we know how the rest played out. Buying restrictions really destroyed all volume and momentum. But then there was the hype and Friday was back up. Truth be told, noone knew what would happen at week end. This was such a dynamic and unique situation. Unique. As in - in no way related or could be extrapolated from VW. A friend told me over the weekend that he tried to short them at open Thursday. I straight told him that was dumb. Just because in hindsight it was right, at the time it wasn't. No one knew what would happen midmorning that effectively destroyed all buy side momentum and left the sell side wide open. Not to mention the hype then built on Thursday going into Friday by politicians, activists, billionaires... Then going into the weekend, news was splattered all over on every spectrum. I know /Investing and /Stocks are generally not into this mentality. But I'm just saying, this was nothing like a normal trading situation for the majority of people. Everyone risked what they could risk to 'go to the moon'. Can't beat yourself up for treating a gamble like a gamble. People jumping late were buying lotto tickets for a MOASS. Sad to say, it happened and got cut short with Thursday's actions, at least that's what I think. In the end, we all have to open our eyes to our own DD. By mid Monday I figured what was happening but held on just to see if there's any new momentum. There wasn't. I started really looking at the volume and stock movements, and you see how it dipped and rode back up daily - that could have indeed be covering. Trust your own gut when you need to. Don't take everything they say to heart - (such as the SSR and the incorrect way they were posting it. Same as the T+2, noone knows if and when they covered). Always remember - Other people's DD whether good or not, have personal biases, and this includes media outlets and analysts. And just remember, a lot of the early adopters are holding because they believe in GME, not necessary just the squeeze. And made money along the way. There is nothing wrong with joining the ride or allocating an X% of your portfolio for risky plays. But understand what comes with that risk. There is also nothing wrong with taking profits or cutting loose when suits you and your own financial situation. And I do think this was a great lesson for all of us, novice to experienced on how to handle FOMO, Risk, Greed, Emotion, Wall Street and the slew of everything else. Decisions are always easier in Hindsight. Doesn't mean they were the right decision at the time. Remember that. And don't beat yourself up on it. Take it and learn from it. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 03 Feb 2021 12:56 PM PST Tesla May Be Using AMD GPU In New Model S, X For Gaming Mentioned: TSLA Tesla Inc's (NASDAQ: TSLA) newly refreshed Model S and X bring many enhancements, with some of the most obvious being the 17-inch landscape touchscreen up front, with an 8-inch secondary display for passengers in the back. Tesla's new gaming compuer will have 10 teraflops of gaming power, which is on par with the new PlayStation 5. Now in a story covered by Tesmanian, it seems Tesla could possibly be going forward with a Navi 23 GPU from AMD. Someone posted a diagram on Twitter showing an AMD Navi GPU interfacing with other Tesla parts. This would lead to a powerful gaming experience that could be compared to the new Microsoft and Sony gaming consoles released last year. pic.twitter.com/Q7A1zJGtm0 â?? Patrick Schur (@patrickschur_) January 28, 2021 CEO Elon Musk mentioned the new S and X would be able to play "Cyberpunk 2077." This game was released last year, and has advanced graphics that need a powerful system to run. Teaser images of the new S and X show "The Witcher" on screen, a game by the same makers as "Cyberpunk 2077" that was also made into a show Musk has referenced in the past. It can play Cyberpunk â?? Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 28, 2021 Click here to check out Benzinga's EV Hub for the latest electric vehicle news [link] [comments]  |
| Just know, anyone buying new gme are the bag holders. Everyone left still needs someone to sell to Posted: 03 Feb 2021 01:21 PM PST I don't have gme, never did and never will. I don't hate on anyone who made money. God bless if you got in at $20 or less and have sold. But if you see someone encouraging you to buy this stock at ~$100 or to hold at this point, be skeptical. New buyers are the bag holders. I have soon posts with people having sold hundreds or thousands of shares and now defending and encouraging others to buy or to hold. Please just be ware. If you buy in now you are likely to be left holding the bag and if someone is encouraging you to do so after having locked in their profit, you should be extremely skeptical. Good luck out there [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 02 Feb 2021 02:55 PM PST Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor and this is all my own opinion. I hold ~4k shares of bb and started buying at ~4$ with an overall average cost of ~12$. One thing that really annoyed me during this whole GME saga is somehow BB became a meme stock and the target of a "short squeeze" (SI is like 8%) with people piling on OTM calls and weeklys saying it's going to triple in a month. BB is a solid long term hold that's misvalued by the broad market. Valuation BB is currently valued at about 6.5B market cap as of closing Feb 2 2021. For a software company valued at 6.5B in today's market you would think it does like 100M a year in sales. Nope, BB is actually about a billion with 475M in annual recurring revenue with 26% y/y growth. Similar companies such as Okta and Crwd are currently at ~36B and 49B respectively. Those companies have better growth numbers but neither are profitable and should not justify an 8x price premium. Just taking annual recurring revenue assuming most of it is the software segment which grows at 26% y/y at 20 p/s alone gives ~10b value (50% upside from today's price). Current business and future business BB has not sold a phone in like 5 years. It has completely phased itself out into a pure software company. It's main lines of business are software for cars (QNX) and cybersecurity for enterprises and government (9/10 top automakers, 9/10 largest global banks, 18/20 G20 governments) all of which are relatively recession proof and once integrated hard to replace. QNX has the highest security certification from the international stadard for functional safety of electrical systems for road vehicles (ISO 26262) that not even Tesla has. They also have Canada's largest patent portfolio at over 38k. I feel all of this points to a diverse business that can withstand economic downturns supported by clients with effectively infinite money (printer go brrr). Blackberry and AWS The big news in recent months was the announcement of BB IVY a partnership with AWS. IVY is a cloud based big data platform for cars. People say tesla is not a car company but a data company due to all the data they gather. When all other car companies want to gather their own data IVY comes in. If they're already on QNX i'd imagine the integration will be seamless. The possibilites are endless as cars gather more and more data (engine, transmission, brakes, wind wipers etc). Financials BB is cashflow positive for the last 3 full years with more cash than debt, there is no risk of bankrupcy despite this fear for the last 5 or so years. The company it self targets a healthy gross margin of 80-85% and operating income of 20-25%. Current FCF is 1% but since they're in a growth phase I don't see that as a problem. Leadership CEO John Chen is an experienced leader with a technology background as a design engineer. He turned around Cybase from a 362 million dollar low to a 5.8B dollar in 12 years. He joined BB in 2013 and has received much praise for the turn around. He's currently signed on until atleast 2023 (hopefully until IVY is out and running) and has stock bonuses should the stock hit various levels between 16-30/share. Future and risks BB as a stock seem to have some bad press due being seen as a WSB meme stock. I'm personally hoping it holds support at 11-13 for a few months and trade sideways until WSB moves on to something else so it can grow organically. There's not much news on guidance regarding IVY and it is not scheduled to release until 2023 and development costs may eat into short term numbers. Although institution ownership has increased from 49% to 65% in recent months so there optimism from big money. At BB's own margin goals with revenues of 2b/3b/4b would equate to net profites of 500m/750m/1b. If growth is around 20% a 40 p/e is very reasonable which gives a market cap of 20b-40b. If a revenue growth cycle hits above expectations this could be even higher. I see a price of around 5b market cap as the floor and I don't see any reason it should go lower especially as car sales recover as we move past covid. sources: BB investor presentation and official balance sheets. [link] [comments]  |
| Reminder - Whether you own GME or not - CHANGE YOUR GODDAMN BROKER Posted: 03 Feb 2021 02:00 PM PST Hello everyone, Last weekend I created a thread, in which I documented which brokers stopped people from purchasing specific securities, and which ones didn't. Before it gets forgotten, I want to bring that list back again, and insist that you get a new broker if yours is one of the bad ones. This is a much, MUCH bigger issue than you think, and this can and WILL affect you eventually, if you stay with a broker that decides that you cannot trade a security that he does not want you to trade. Note that the securities affected were not just meme stocks, several large stocks some of you might own or have heard about were restricted and their price was thus manipulated, including:
And many more. When boomer stocks get affected, this means the entire free market is at risk and the next time this happens you might be the one unable to trade your favorite stock if you continue using a bad discount broker. Whether this is the broker's fault or their clearinghouse's fault is irrelevant, the result is your inability to engage in the free market. This behavior needs to be punished to ensure other brokers don't start doing the same thing. Here is my list of brokers which I will continue to update, as per the previous thread: Horrible Brokers - Restricted purchasing of certain tickets and lied/gloated about it
Bad Brokers - Restricted purchasing of certain tickers
Neutral Brokers - Restricted trading, publicly naming their intermediary
Good Brokers - Did not restrict trading
Again, get a new broker. Thanks [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 03 Feb 2021 06:58 AM PST Hi all, This is probably a stupid question and even though I am aware none of you can predict the future, I still want to ask it. I have invested a small amount of my portfolio in AMC (bought 70 shares at 7), but I'm having a hard time deciding when to sell considering this is still a meme stock. In hindsight I should have cashed out on Monday when it hit 17, but at that point I was still sure that it would rise even further. Now with the massive dip of yesterday I am not so sure anymore. When do you guys think would be a wise time to sell? Since I just jumped on the bandwagon, I'm just looking for a quick profit tbh and I'm not in it for the long run (for AMC at least). Thanks! [link] [comments]  |
| Anyone else getting in on the IPO for Roblox this year? Posted: 03 Feb 2021 12:08 PM PST Roblox is going public this year so share holders can offer their shares to the public. Certainly not because Roblox needs cash. This company has fantastic revenue generation year over year, 2019 they brought in $435 million. They are the third highest grossing mobile game in the world and have 35 million users a month. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 03 Feb 2021 09:36 AM PST I've followed r/wsb for awhile for the memes, and as someone in their mid thirties with a blue collar job, seeing the economy ravaged all throughout 2020 and wondering about the future of the industry I work in, my mind has more and more been mindful of investing for the future. Then last week happened. Regular people were making serious money on apps on their phone, it was everywhere in the headlines. and all of America was aware of it. It was the kick in the ass I needed to finally get going on the whole "stocks" thing. This is basically what I imagine is the exact same thought millions of Americans like myself were having. All of the sudden I want to learn everything I can. The most pervasive thought I'm having, is wondering how this massive influx of interest on the "public" level may affect the market. Both in the short term, where it would make sense to see a lot of opportunity to make short gains in a huge cash injection coupled with inexperience and meme stock mania; as well the long term, where a lot of the noobs will lose money and interest eventually, however the playing field will be changed forever with the huge boost in awareness in day trading apps in general. For example, I already put what I'm getting back for my tax return into the market. I'll do the same with whatever stimulus check gets sent out. If 10 million people do the same, it's gotta have quite an effect, right? [link] [comments]  |
| Stocks to keep an eye on today and buy Posted: 03 Feb 2021 05:18 AM PST Hey, I was thinking about buying some stocks today. But im not sure what stock to buy. I see a lot of people hyping NIO, I have looked at it for a while but idk. It feels like im missing out on these stocks that flies up and would love to find them before they take off. How do people find these stocks? What are you looking for to know if a stock is a good buy? If you would/will buy a stock today what would it be and why? Thanks! [link] [comments]  |
| Your stock picks for 2021 feat. my portfolio. Posted: 03 Feb 2021 11:31 AM PST Hi all! I am 24 years old and have been slowly starting to join the investing world starting in September of 2019. My ROTH IRA was sitting around 24k a couple weeks ago, but after selling $cantdiscusswithoutremoval (sorry, paper-hands, but were here to make money right?) I am now around 34k and sitting on cash. My current portfolio is:
I know this portfolio is slightly more on the risky side, however at my age I am 100% on trying to be more risky. I was hoping for a second opinion on what you think I might add. I have 7k cash sitting from said undiscussable stock, plus will be adding my 5k tax return to max my ROTH again for the year. I really love SPCE right now (cost basis $18). However, I think we will have a few 10$ drops before it hits low 100's in a couple years. I definitely will probably toss a couple thousand into both ARK's. Maybe $1000 into SQ/V. But, other then that does anyone have any new ideas? Also, I know a lot of ya'll love VTI and maybe I will fund it more. But, my work sponsored 401K is essentially all in a VTI similar like fund. [link] [comments]  |
| GME taught me the importance of being independent Posted: 02 Feb 2021 01:57 PM PST I started investing right when I turned 18 in the summer of 2020. I'm talking index funds and ETFs, the boring but good stuff. Ended 2020 with a 34% return thanks to the raging bull market which made me pour even more money into it. I bought into the GME hype at $34 dollars but eventually dca'd my way to a solid $64 average cost. I got caught up in the bullish GME echo chamber that r/wallstreetbets now is - I was just lucky to get in and out early compared to others. As WSB's member count went through the roof, more and more users commented price targets and abusing people into not selling. By going to these users' history, a lot - and I mean A LOT - had comments from 2 days ago along the lines of "where to buy stocks?". It just made the echo chamber even clearer. These people, who had no idea, were commenting advice and about the future of GME. I'm a beginner too but I wouldn't even think of pretending like I have a clue. The quote "If shoe shine boys are giving stock tips, then it's time to get out of the market" have always stuck with me, but I never put much credibility into it, until now. I eventually dca'd my way out at an average cost of $206 after reading about the conspiracy theories regarding why the reported 53% short interest was false. Maybe it is false and maybe these hedge have pulled off a great move in suppressing this % without actually covering in order to mislead investors, but I would never bet on that. Took $3.1k profit which was cool, but this whole situation has made me realize the importance of being independent. It has motivated me to actually learn how to read a balance sheet, do my own due diligence and come to my own conclusions - not depend on others. Reddit, Seeking Alpha and Twitter are great resources to take inspiration from, but I'll never invest through someone else's thesis again even though it worked out this time. The only thing that separates me from the guy who bought at $400 is that I picked up on the information earlier. We were both "promised" $1000, which I always saw as ridiculous but hey, "everyone is spamming it so it must be true". No, that echo chamber mentality is dangerous and a lot of people have lost a lot of money as a product of it. You never know who's on the other side spamming their thesis. Might be Warren Buffet or a guy who downloaded *insert controversial broker here* 2 days ago - I won't blindly follow their advice either way. [link] [comments]  |
| Recent Volatility and the Unlikely Winners Posted: 03 Feb 2021 07:51 AM PST First of all, this is somewhat of a long post and I hope you all enjoy it. Tldr: For a short period of time, the 'Reddit Raid' impacted the overall economy in positive ways that we could not have predicted. For some companies, it was the lifeline they needed. Winners: Institutional Investors, Companies, Employees, Real Estate (and local communities). Winners Institutional Investors: Silver Lake Partners – Silver Lake Partners is a private equity group that up until recently, had been a credit investor with AMC. Originally owning $600 Million worth of convertible bonds back in 2018, Silver Lake disclosed on Friday January 29th that they had converted their $600 Million worth of bonds into AMC shares and subsequently sold those shares for a $113 Million profit. This convertible bond event also dramatically benefited AMC through the obvious reduction in debt during a tenuous operating environment (more on that later). GME Shareholders – It may be a surprise to many media outlets but institutional investors have made a sizeable gain when it comes to GME shares. Fidelity, Black Rock, and Vanguard own 13.7%, 12.3%, and 7.6% of shares outstanding respectively. This has led to a gain of $2.9 Billion, $2.6 Billion, and $1.6 Billion respectively for each of these institutional investors. Ontario Teachers Pension Fund – The recent retail action in favour of mall REIT Macerich (MAC) led to the largest shareholder; the Ontario Teachers Pension Fund, cashing out for $500 Million which has helped boost capital available for the pension obligations of the teachers paying into this pension fund. Companies: AMC - Due to the convertible bond action I highlighted earlier with regards to Silver Lake Partners, AMC saw an immediate reduction in the company's debt by $600 Million dollars as the credit investor opted to take common equity instead. This reduced AMC's debt burden and in turn has allowed them to look more favorable in the eyes of the credit market. The reduction in debt also helps AMC navigate the challenging operating environment that has been brought about by the pandemic and the restrictions. Two weeks ago, AMC was also able to raise $917 Million by tapping debt and equity markets which helped stave off concerns of bankruptcy. I suspect that GME will conduct an equity offering in hopes of raising cash to pay down debt. These developments have been extremely beneficial to both AMC and GME and may have prevented bankruptcy of both businesses. At the end of the day I don't want to see either business go under because of the compounding effects it has on the livelihoods of employees, the real estate market, and general blight on communities if in fact their brick and mortar spaces became vacant. Employees: GME has 14,000 full time and 42,000 part time employees (as of 2019). AMC has 4,408 full time and 36,000 part time employees (as of 2018). The survival of these companies mean that these people still have a livelihood and this avoids adding more to the already substantially high unemployment numbers nationally. It seems like the companies will be able to stay afloat so at least some employees will remain. Real Estate: GME has 5,509 brick and mortar locations. AMC has 1,004 brick and mortar locations. The survival of these companies mean that real estate companies avoid large vacancies and communities avoid blighted zones of lost business. I have not invested in any of the recent hype stocks but I do believe that the events of the past few weeks have been the lifeline that was needed and I hope these businesses can be turned around. Godspeed. [link] [comments]  |
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