Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread Investing |
- Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread
- Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.
- Best dividend value stocks to buy and go long.
- Here's my GoogleFinance Market Monitor and ETF Comparison Tools made in Google Sheets
- Rocket Companies ($RKT), who owns Rocket Mortgage, is a slam dunk
- Domino's Pizza announces new $1B share repurchase program (and reviewing earnings)
- The Shroom Boom —> A Play on Psychedelics - MindMed ($MMEDF)
- Fed Views Rising Yields as Bullish Sign Reflecting 2021 Optimism
- Coinbase Could Go Public as Soon as This March
- Overflow sticky thread for GME, etc.
- Bond sell-off - fund allocation
- US Weekly Jobless Claims Fall More Than Expected to 730,000
- Futures were made for days like these
- What happened to gold as equity market hedge
- I am looking to diversify my portfolio into ETFs but don’t know where to start
- I believe KWG Resources Inc (CNSX:KWG) and Noront Resources Inc (CVE:NOT) are a great long-term investment opportunity. But what do I know. I’m just an unemployed banquet server.
- Airbnb Q4 earnings report
- Vistra Energy - DD for earnings tomorrow. $5.19 Billion dollar surprise from Texas Snowpocalypse?
- Your take on Chamath Palihapitiya
- Do you model before investing?
- Let's talk about liquidity premiums
- Covers call premiums and cost basis
| Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread Posted: 26 Feb 2021 02:01 AM PST Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here! This thread is for:
Keep in mind that this subreddit, and this thread, is not an appropriate venue for questions that should be directed towards your broker's customer support or google. If you would like to ask a question about your personal situation or if you are asking for advice please keep these posts in the daily advice thread as that thread is more well suited for those questions. Any posts that should be comments in this thread will likely be removed. [link] [comments]  |
| Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Posted: 26 Feb 2021 02:00 AM PST If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our side bar also has useful resources. Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  |
| Best dividend value stocks to buy and go long. Posted: 25 Feb 2021 08:56 PM PST I have my eyes on a few stocks and have already bought a few. It's been hard recently finding good companies at the markets overall valuation. To me dividends are important. So this is a must considering I'm building a cash generation machine. I'm trying to find stocks at bargain/cheap prices. Not exactly solid companies that are trading fairly. Not you're usual dividend aristocrats like ABBV, T, MMM, KO, etc. The ones that are being over looked and hopefully trading at historical lows. Lately I personally have been looking at or have bought: REYN: Reynolds Consumer Products. Pretty new publicly, but have been around for sometime. They make more notably Reynolds wrap. Pretty decent brand for its category. Boring company but can easily pay out dividends for the foreseeable future presumably. Modest dividend of about 2%. TDS: Telephone and Data Systems. The own the majority of US cellular. And have standard land line style phone business. Not one of the big boys in the sector. But I'm sure they'll get a piece of the pie. Pretty nice dividend a bit under 4%. I'm bullish especially with 5G emerging. ED: Consolidated Edison. Typical boring utility stock. But the sector is arguably one of the 'safest.' Most of the sector is still pretty fairly priced. But ED has gotten beat up lately and they seem much too cheap. And they have a solid 4.5% or so dividend. PBI: Pitney Bowes. I'm getting really close to buying into this company. I'm just waiting for a bit of a price cool off. (Hopefully.) pretty small company but they deal with shipping/packaging services and general e-commerce stuff. Considering shipping needs seem to be increasing they seem to be a good pick. Plus they seem to have a descent relationship with the USPS as a supplier. And have roughly a 2.3% dividend These are a few I'm looking at or have bought. I'm interested in what you guys think and which buried, tucked away value dividend stocks you're looking at that are trading at juicy prices. [link] [comments]  |
| Here's my GoogleFinance Market Monitor and ETF Comparison Tools made in Google Sheets Posted: 25 Feb 2021 11:23 PM PST Hello All, I'd like to share a few spreadsheets that I made in Google Sheets that you might find useful. To use, follow the links and create a copy of the sheet on your own Drive. Otherwise you won't be able to change the tickers or sort. Each tab has more information on how to use it. In general, change the ticker or add a new row and autofill from the previous row to pull data. Since GoogleFinance can get bogged down with too many formulas at once, keep the cells that aren't necessary right now empty and then autofill as needed. These tools are NOT the typical portfolio trackers to keep track of gains or dividends. Instead, the objective was to make two pain points easier to manage: comparing price returns of every segment of the market in a consolidated format that is easy to sort, and comparing ETF characteristics to differentiate funds quickly and avoid switching between URLs / copy-pasting gymnastics. The Market Monitor Tool is the main spreadsheet in this tool kit: * I use the Overview tab to get up to date returns over all time periods for every part of the equity markets to know what's happening in terms of market rotation, sector strength, short term trading momentum, mid term tactical positioning, and long term portfolio rebalancing. Sorting the columns lets me see immediately, for example, which sector did the best today, how much small caps outperformed large caps over the past quarter, the performance of tech vs discretionary over 365 days 2 years ago, how well defensive stocks held up 4 quarters ago, current drawdown percentage for every sector from the past year's high, how much QQQ has outperformed SPY over the past 3 5 10 years, are cyclical sectors outperforming sensitive sectors over the past 6 mo, etc. & etc. Every time period is conditionally formatted so colors indicate outperformance and underperformance.
The ETFdb Tool has information scraped from ETFdb.com:
Finally, the Import Tool is a cheatsheet for the IMPORTHTML function used to scrape info from websites.
That's it! Let me know if you have any comments, suggestions, questions - - especially if a formula isn't correct. Sorry for wall of text! ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ tldr: make a copy of spreadsheets and profit [link] [comments]  |
| Rocket Companies ($RKT), who owns Rocket Mortgage, is a slam dunk Posted: 25 Feb 2021 03:15 PM PST Rocket Companies (ticker RKT) is Rocket Mortgage, the online mortgage broker launched by Quicken Loans in 2015. RKT had their Q4 earnings released today, and as of market close were trading at $19.90, and $20.90 as of this post during AH. First, let me briefly mention that RKT has been shorted like CRAZY and as of the last Short Interest report on Feb 9th, RKT has AT LEAST 31.32% shares short. That makes it a great target for a (probably small) short squeeze, even if temporarily. Before you get too excited and start treating this like a Meme stock, read on about why this is a fantastic investment even without considering Short Interest. Rocket's Q4 results COMPLETELY knocked it out of the park with $4.8 billion Adjusted Revenue (up 162% YOY) and $2.3 billion Adjusted Income (up 350% YOY). See Yahoo article here Last month, Rocket also announced their new online National Mortgage Broker Directory that allows/assists people to find an in-person mortgage agent to help them purchase their home. It's an alternative to fill the need of the people who prefer in-person contact over filling out overwhelming checkboxes and blanks online. They're also now adding a Special dividend of $1.11/share, announced today with their earnings. RKT has been trading way under an average PT of $24.68 ($18-$35) by 14 analysts on Yahoo! Finance way before these new earnings results, so it was already trading at a discount. For the better part of the last 6 months it has traded consistently between $19-$24. It's primed for a jump even without any of this news. TL;DR- buy RKT. It's cheap, is massively shorted and has GREAT financials. And a Special dividend. Plus, their name is Rocket *Edited for formatting [link] [comments]  |
| Domino's Pizza announces new $1B share repurchase program (and reviewing earnings) Posted: 25 Feb 2021 06:48 AM PST *On February 24, the company's Board of Directors authorized a new share repurchase program to repurchase up to $1B of the company's common stock. This repurchase program replaces the remaining availability of approximately $76.6M under the company's previously approved $1B share repurchase program. This is after earnings that missed estimates. Earnings per share: $3.46 adjusted vs. $3.89 expected Revenue: $1.36 billion vs. $1.39 billion expected U.S. same-store sales increased by 11.2%, down from third quarter's 17.5% growth. International same-store sales climbed by 7.3%. Domino's also said it made a $40 million investment in Dash Brands, the privately held company that serves as the pizza chain's franchisee in China. Domino's first invested in Dash in the second quarter of 2020, acquiring a noncontrolling stake for $40 million. The company's new two- to three-year outlook projects net unit growth of 6% to 8% and global retail sales growth of 6% to 10%, excluding foreign currency. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/25/dominos-pizza-dpz-q4-2020-earnings-miss.html [link] [comments]  |
| The Shroom Boom —> A Play on Psychedelics - MindMed ($MMEDF) Posted: 25 Feb 2021 11:32 PM PST The Mush Rush - A Play on Psychedelics 8 days ago, MindMed Reached Agreement to Acquire HealthMode, a Leading Machine Learning Digital Medicine Company Acquisition will help build a full stack digital mental health platform for psychedelic medicines MindMed ($MMEDF) is a biotech psychedelic medicine company focused on the clinical development of LSD, Ibogaine, MDMA, DMT, and psilocybin for: - anxiety - depression - addiction - ADHD - and more On March 3rd, 2020, MindMed listed on NEO to Become World's First Psychedelic Pharmaceutical Company to Go Public "Psychedelics have been under-researched and stigmatized by society," said Kevin O'Leary(Shark Tank), an early MindMed investor and advisor. "As an investor, I am attracted to MindMed because they are solving health problems through federally authorized *clinical trials*, and have no interest in recreational use." MindMed develops medicines derived from psychedelics to address significant unmet medical needs. It is initially targeting a solution to address the opioid crisis and other forms of addiction. In addition, the company has established a psychedelics microdosing division, which leverages rigorous science and clinical trials performed under government regulatory supervision, to evaluate the efficacy of microdosing. Going public will allow MindMed to continue developing clinical trials and to access additional institutional capital to further build its pipeline of clinical trials for psychedelic-inspired medicines. MindMed will acquire HealthMode through the issuance of 82,508 multiple voting shares of MindMed (equivalent to 8,250,836 subordinate voting shares which, at yesterday's closing price of CAD $5.13, puts the value of HealthMode at approximately CAD $41,254,180) and the payment of approximately CAD $300,000 in cash.
COVID-19 Research Audio Data Collection for Identification and Classification of Coughing The idea behind it is that "coughs aren't all the same," says Dr. Daniel Karlin
Users who install the app — whose website urges users to "Donate your cough to science!" — can start it when they begin to cough and upload the sound to HealthMode, which will analyze it for characteristics such as volume, duration and frequency. Their health will then be monitored with weekly questionnaires.
On November 25th, 2020, they announced $25 Million Bought Deal Public Offering
Microdosing MindMed is collaborating with Maastricht University in the Netherlands to undertake a Phase 2a clinical trial for microdosing LSD for adult ADHD. The proof-of-concept study is planned to take place at two trial sites, including Maastricht University. The principal investigator of the study is Kim Kuypers, one of the world's top psychedelics microdosing clinical researchers. They're creating a new paradigm for mental health care that incorporates both psychedelic-assisted therapy and non-hallucinogenic take-home medicines to help patients overcome and break through. LSD/MDMA Combo - With this innovative treatment paradigm, they are looking to bring the participants outside the bounds of their everyday perceptions, facilitating new states of consciousness and flexibility. Combining MDMA and LSD may enhance the positive effects of LSD by inducing a positive psychological state with MDMA which is an empathogen to help counteract some known negative or less positive aspects of LSD Legalization of Psychedelics
In 2019, Denver decriminalized magic mushrooms.
In November 2020, following elections, becomes first state to legalize magic mushrooms as more states ease drug laws in 'psychedelic renaissance'
Also, in Novmber, a two-track effort to Allow Psychedelic Mushrooms In Washington State launches amid broader Drug Decrim push.
In late January, Hawaii announces push to legalize Psychedelic Mushroom Therapy under new Senat Bill.
A few weeks ago, a Florida lawmaker aims to Legalize Psychedelic Mushrooms by 2022
Conclusion The stigma around psychedelics/mushrooms continue to change dramatically. Imo, Mindmed is first in line to benefit as legislation continues to changes in this regard. The yearly chart presents a potential C&H w/ strong support forming ~3.30usd. (>70% oversold on the monthly) RSI curling ..Imo, anything under 3.5usd is a STRONG buy. Initial PT —> ~4.20usd Stay safe & GLTA! I am not a Financial Advisor, so please do your own DD [link] [comments]  |
| Fed Views Rising Yields as Bullish Sign Reflecting 2021 Optimism Posted: 25 Feb 2021 01:47 PM PST Bloomberg article: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-25/fed-views-rising-yields-as-bullish-sign-reflecting-2021-optimism
[link] [comments]  |
| Coinbase Could Go Public as Soon as This March Posted: 25 Feb 2021 08:43 AM PST Coinbase Global made public on Thursday the prospectus for its much-anticipated initial public offering, setting up the company to possibly launch its IPO in March. Coinbase, whose mission is to create an open financial system for everyone, plans to use a direct listing to tap the public equities markets. Coinbase won't receive any proceeds from shareholders selling their stock during the offering, the prospectus said. Goldman Sachs , J.P. Morgan Securities, Allen & Co., and Citigroup Global Markets are acting as financial advisors on the deal. Coinbase plans to trade on the Nasdaq under the symbol "COIN." Companies typically have to wait 15 days to commence a roadshow for their IPOs after making the prospectus public. This means Coinbase could launch the direct listing as soon as next month. Coinbase isn't conducting a typical roadshow, but may host one or more investor days, the prospectus said. https://www.barrons.com/articles/coinbase-could-go-public-as-soon-as-march-51614270033 [link] [comments]  |
| Overflow sticky thread for GME, etc. Posted: 25 Feb 2021 06:28 AM PST Please keep all the comments and opinions about current GME, AMC, etc. here. Thanks. [link] [comments]  |
| Bond sell-off - fund allocation Posted: 25 Feb 2021 08:14 PM PST Hi everyone - As we all know, there's been a massive bond sell-off in the past few days. Some qs:
Thanks! [link] [comments]  |
| US Weekly Jobless Claims Fall More Than Expected to 730,000 Posted: 25 Feb 2021 07:37 AM PST Some notes from the article: 'Initial claims for state unemployment benefits totaled a seasonally adjusted 730,000 for the week ended Feb. 20, compared to 841,000 in the prior week, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 838,000 applications in the latest week.' 'Gross domestic product increased at a 4.1% annualized rate, the Commerce Department said in its second estimate of fourth-quarter GDP growth. That was a slight upward revision from the 4.0% pace reported last month. The economy grew at a record 33.4% rate in third quarter.' 'The economy's struggles in the final three months of 2020 are mostly in the rear view mirror. The sharp rebound retail sales and President Joe Biden's massive $1.9 trillion recovery package, which is gaining traction in the U.S. Congress, have prompted economists to boost their first-quarter growth estimates to as high as a 6% rate from as low as a 2.3% pace.' [link] [comments]  |
| Futures were made for days like these Posted: 25 Feb 2021 11:46 AM PST When you think of futures, what comes to your mind? Is it the 10x leverage, the margin trading and subsequent margin calls? Rubbish. It's the hedging. When I talked about futures with a value investor he was borderline scolding me for being a reckless gambler. Do you think I care? Hell, no. I manage a million dollar portfolio of growth stocks and I feel a strong sense of responsibility for protecting it. It's days like these when my beloved NQ comes to the rescue. Futures contracts were precisely made for days like these. Airlines use futures contracts to reduce exposure to volatile fuel prices (it's called fuel hedging). Farmers do the same with commodities futures. You don't bastardize them by day trading those tiny ticks. You're just growing white hair from doing that! My goodness. I wrote here a few days back and the post went completely ballistic. I proposed to invest with conviction and to understand the companies you're buying, otherwise to dump them. Know what you buy, and hold with conviction. I sincerely hope that the post helped many of you clean up your portfolios — just on time for this massive 3% drop today. I'm not throwing my careful DD out of the window and fire sale all my holdings. I'm hanging in there with you guys and I'm here with another piece of advice. Learn the art of hedging. I hedged with the NQ on Feb 22 and am only down a fraction of a % today. Index futures were made for precisely this purpose because of their low margin. It would be near impossible to hedge an entire portfolio if you had to come up with an equal amount of cash. That's why hedging with ETFs (while possible) is highly inefficient. Once a trend is established, it will remain intact for an extended period of time. If a trend reverses down like on Feb 22, you go short the entire portfolio value. You keep the hedge until the fog clears. Smaller portfolios (say 20k+) can be hedged with the new micro futures. They're 1/10th of the size of mini futures like the NQ. Here's another advantage: as the trend resumes down, futures contracts settle in cash daily which means short positions will pile up fresh cash as the trend goes down. This cash is now at your disposal. You can pile into the stocks you believe in at near lows and you remove the hedge. [link] [comments]  |
| What happened to gold as equity market hedge Posted: 25 Feb 2021 07:51 AM PST Historically gold has always functioned as a hedge when equity markets went down or inflation went up however I noticed in recent year(s) this is no longer the case. Again today there is a stock market sell-off but gold is also down more than 1%. Also with the big correction in feb 2020 gold also went down quite alot. Anybody can explain why this happens? And no, this has nothing to do with money flowing from gold into bitcoin. The gold market is still x times bigger than bitcoin and when monday and tuesday the stock market and gold went down, so did bitcoin so that's not the reason. One thing I read somewhere is that it might have to do with (leveraged) hedge funds getting more margin calls when equity markets go down and in order to post cash collateral they have to sell other assets like gold. Not sure if that makes sense or is even the main reason so why is gold selling off, which is even more surpring since gold has also always functioned as inflation hedge. With investors worrying about inflation lately you would think gold would benifit but even that doesn't seem to be the case. [link] [comments]  |
| I am looking to diversify my portfolio into ETFs but don’t know where to start Posted: 26 Feb 2021 04:22 AM PST Hi all, I am looking to grow my personal portfolio and looking to invest in ETFs. I have invested in tech stocks and some mutual funds that are actively managed (eg FEMKX) but I'm looking to diversify further into some ETFs as I've been reading about them being passively managed and being a good way to grow wealth with steady returns. I am not really sure where to start but I am looking for strong returns at a medium risk level. Any advice? What would be a good way to scan possible options based on my risk tolerance and ROI goals? I have put around $15k aside so looking to make the most of it. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 26 Feb 2021 03:28 AM PST Normally I would be very skeptical investing in penny stocks but I have stumbled upon these two companies trading at pennies and can't figure out why this isn't the investment opportunity of a lifetime. "Noront holds eight mineral deposits of chromite, nickel, copper, zinc, platinum, palladium, along with 100 documented mineral occurrences with showings of gold, titanium, vanadium, diamonds and cobalt." I bought a little bit of NOT in 2014 at 62 cents after news broke out that Cliffs Natural Resources announced they would abandon its $550-million investment in the Ring of Fire and sell it to Noront Resources at an eventual 95% discount. Noront had a 90% claim to the Ring of Fire with a "plan to mine just under one million tonnes of chromite annually, producing enough semi-finished ferrochrome to supply half of the U.S. stainless steel industry." At the time of my investment it seemed like relationships with First Nation people was hindering any progress of the mine. "The reason nothing was happening in the Ring of Fire has nothing to do with the value of the deposits. It is entirely due to the inability of governments on all levels, including First Nations, provincial, and federal, to reach consensus on land tenure and development plans." Fast forward to 2021 and I've lost over half of my money as Noront is now trading at 30 cents. Since I bought NOT, the Canadian government has promised to fund the roads needed to start the project. "The planning and construction is being overseen by a combination of Martin Falls and Webequie First Nations and the Ontario government. Progress on getting the roads built has been slower than Noront would like, but the company anticipates all the environmental assessments wrapping up by 2023, followed by permitting and two years of road construction leading toward a 2025 completion. Also, holding a 10 percent stake in the Ring of Fire, KWG Resources, is now forging ahead with a $2 billion railway that would run 330 kilometres, expanding the rail infrastructure in the region for the first time in decades. I did not buy any shares of (CNSX:KWG) and at the time of writing this KWG is trading at 3 cents. How is this possible when there seems to be so much in the pipeline for these two companies? "Copper, aluminium, chromium, manganese, molybdenum, and nickel are required for a range of low-carbon technologies, making them crucial elements for realizing a low-carbon future," according to the World Bank Report: Minerals for Climate Action: The Mineral Intensity of the Clean Energy Transition. Three of these minerals, chromium, nickel and copper can be found in the Ring of Fire. Both Noront and KWG would seem to benefit from a move towards low carbon technologies and could reap the benefits with an increased need for these minerals. One of these technologies can be seen in the emergence of electric vehicles. Bloomberg New Energy Finance sees improved batteries, more readily available charging infrastructure, new markets, and price parity with internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles as major drivers. The study finds that EV's hit 10% of global passenger vehicle sales by 2025, rising to 28% in 2030 and 58% in 2040. "A quarter of the cost of an EV is the lithium-ion battery, while four-fifths of the cost of the battery itself is the minerals, metals and chemicals going in it." Canada Nickel chief executive, Mark Selby, said "it's become very clear that there's large portions of the periodic table for which the United States has no local source of supply." There seems to be a heightened U.S. government interest in securing supplies of critical minerals used in everything from EV's to advanced weaponry. If the U.S. would like to limit their reliance on China for these commodities it would be beneficial to work with Canada to export these materials. With such a close proximity to the automobile factories in the United States there would also be huge savings in transportation costs. Even Elon Musk is asking for it by tweeting, "I'd just like to re-emphasize, any mining companies out there, please mine more nickel." And in another tweet, "Wherever you are in the world, please mine more nickel and go for efficiency, obviously environmentally-friendly nickel mining at high volume. Tesla will give you a giant contract for a long period of time, if you mine nickel efficiently and in an environmentally sensitive way." As demand for nickel grows the price will continue to rise as the supply gets scarce. In the last year alone nickel prices have gone from 5.01USD/lb to a high of 8.93USD/lb. This increased price for nickel can only bode well for KWG and Noront. Just recently, Noront Resources landed a new strategic partner in Wyloo Metals, the mining division of Tattarang, one of Australia's largest private investment groups. Wyloo was looking to make some strategic investments outside of Western Australia, particularly in nickel. In looking at investments for a 'decarbonized' future, Wyloo is on a global hunt for nickel, lithium and all the metals they think will be important in a low carbon future, particularly in the electric vehicle battery space. This investment reflects the long-term collaborative strategy to support the discovery and development of the next generation of mines required to meet the growing demand of critical materials needed to power the decarbonization of the global economy. Wyloo also has a good reputation in dealing well and honestly with the indigenous populations in Western Australia. They will be a great asset in continued negotiations with First Nations people and help facilitate sustainable mining operations in the Ring of Fire. It's clear to me there is a lot of value in these companies at such a low share price. With KWG building a railroad and Noront building a road, strategic partnerships can be made between both companies. It may be very likely that KWG could be a takeover target by Noront at some point in the future. But for now it may be beneficial for both companies to develop the required infrastructure they will both need to thrive in the Ring of Fire. To me it seems like investing in these companies is a no brainer and sure to payoff in the future. Am I missing something? Why would someone pay $100,000 for a bitcoin when you can have a share of KWG for 3 cents and Noront for 30 cents? References: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/why-the-future-is-bright-for-nickel-exploration-1.1562606\] [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 25 Feb 2021 10:29 PM PST Q4 earnings : Revenue : 859M Loss : (3885M) , mostly due to Share based compensation associated with IPO, Share based compensation stood at 2.89 Billion Adj. EBITDA : (21M) Bookings were down 39% for the quarter. FY20 : Revenue : 3378M Loss : (4585M) Adjusted EBITDA : (251M) Booking were down 41% Outlook : Quoting the shareholder letter here :
As expected Q121 will also be a wash for the company in terms of growth. Revenues will probably be higher than prior quarter but still trending downwards. The company did not provide outlook for the rest of 2021. I think the stock closed 9% down. we will have to wait till Q3 earnings to get a more realistic picture of the business. [link] [comments]  |
| Vistra Energy - DD for earnings tomorrow. $5.19 Billion dollar surprise from Texas Snowpocalypse? Posted: 25 Feb 2021 03:00 PM PST Hey Everyone - my background is in energy and earlier this week I came across two articles about Vistra that piqued my interest. First, one in which it was acknowledged that Vistra Energy has more generation than retail load and second, that Vistra Energy was able to keep 18gws of their 19gw fleet online for the duration of the Texas winter storm. Linked below are my calcs and model inputs/considerations. In a nutshell, analysis suggests that Vista Energy generated approximately $5.19 Billion in revenue from 2/12/21 to 2/21/21 Vistra was well-positioned for the winter freeze given their meticulous winter-storm preparedness and weatherization plans. There's even a paper trail suggesting so (links below). It begins with Vistra bringing units back from maintenance outages early specifically in anticipation of the storm. Note that it typically takes one to two weeks to being a unit back from a maintenance outage. Once the weather forecast worsened and their internal load forecasts deviated from ERCOT's forecast, they sounded the alarm to ERCOT who shrugged them off. This was early enough that I believe, during this time, Vistra was able to hedge the rest of their retail book at favorable prices leading into the event, although my model suggests otherwise to provide a more conservative PnL estimate. During the storm, Vistra's market share of total generation increased from 18% to 25-30% of all generation online. They have gone on the record indicating they were successful at consistently keeping their 18gw fleet online and producing electrons during the time period with no - or minimal - disruptions to natural gas supplies. After the storm, they donated $5M to Texas retail customers to help with high electricity bills - somewhat suspicious given others in the industry are losing billions of dollars, collectively. After listening to Vistra's testimony at the Texas Capitol today, I suspect they faired supremely well during this period and are simply trying to 'lay low' and minimize the storms impact on their bottom line so as to not attract unwanted attention from regulators and agitate state officials. Personally, I do not expect Vistra to provide any material financial details into how they faired from the storm during tomorrow's earnings call, but certainly be on the look out for an incredible earnings 'surprise' 3 months from now. Excel spreadsheet with detailed analysis and references/support (please excuse typos): https://1drv.ms/x/s!AnCj_wHbX-wU-HMOvDIWwMqtBXOR?e=ooD7zW Disclaimer: I am long Vistra Energy. I am not a financial advisor and this DD is based on my own personal opinion on Vistra's outlook and is not to be considered financial advice. [link] [comments]  |
| Your take on Chamath Palihapitiya Posted: 25 Feb 2021 05:24 AM PST I posted this on another subreddit but I also want to post here to gather more discussion. I have seen quite a couple of interviews with Chamath and read a bit of his profile and his investment value. It seems to me that he speaks with a lot of sense, very articulate with his words, and pretty much an awesome salesman. And many also see him as an investor for the small guys. But other than being a king of S**C who is pretty good in the sales pitch, I don't see any of his investment came into fruits (other than slack). I currently see him as a figure who speaks the "right things" for retail investors by saying the correct things regarding Tesla, Ark Invest, and even Game****. Whichever the speculation is, or the wave is, he is always there to support the crowd. Making him very popular. But deep down is he really as legit as Warren Buffet or Peter Lynch? Thoughts? [link] [comments]  |
| Do you model before investing? Posted: 25 Feb 2021 08:03 AM PST I've been teaching myself a lot about investing recently and was just curious if you guys are all creating full DCF/LBO/Whatever models for the companies you are researching as prospective investments? And if you're not, what are you doing in place of that to find the true value of these companies to determine whether or not you should invest? [link] [comments]  |
| Let's talk about liquidity premiums Posted: 25 Feb 2021 10:32 AM PST I've been on this sub for quite some time and I've never seen discussions around liquidity and liquidity premiums. Why is that? Let's talk about it now! For those who are unaware, liquidity premiums are relatively straightforward in theory. Basically liquidity premiums refers to additional returns earned above the market premium for holding securities that are illiquid. For an everyday of a liquid vs illiquid investment, consider stocks vs a house. Stocks are liquid because if I want to buy or sell a stock, I can do so rather instantaneous (and practically for free) on my phone or laptop. If I want to buy or sell a house, it is much more complicated, takes much longer, and costs a lot in transaction costs. Other examples of illiquid investments include: venture capital, collectors items and art, small businesses, hedge funds, private funds, vending machines, staking crypto, equipment, etc. I'm curious as to people's thoughts on illiquid investments. Is the liquidity premium worth it? When? Why? [link] [comments]  |
| Covers call premiums and cost basis Posted: 25 Feb 2021 07:36 AM PST I've recently begun dabbling in covered calls. As I sell each one, I factor that premium into my cost basis. If my starting cost basis for a stock is $15 and I sell a cc for a premium of $.11 and it expires OTM, I figure my cost basis is now $14.89. Am I looking at this correctly? Anyone else do the same? A stock like BB, for example, has gone down significantly for me ($17.82). If I'm able to sell cc's that expire OTM each week, in my mind I'm recouping some of the potential loss and/or lowering my cost basis for higher profits when it takes off (which I still believe it will). I'm just hedging my bet that it will recover in the meantime with the cc. I have one expiring next week at 14.5 that I made a $0.13 premium on. If it finishes ITM, I lose money obviously, but if it gets close and still finishes OTM, I can turn it around and sell the next at slightly more money. Rinse and repeat so long as they don't exercise below my cost basis while simultaneously lowering my overall cost basis. Right now, with the cc's I have open, I stand to lose at most $800 and a nearly $5,000 investment. As this isn't my main retirement fund, it's a gamble I'm comfortable in taking. [link] [comments]  |
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