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    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing

    February 03, 2021

    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing

    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.

    Posted: 03 Feb 2021 02:00 AM PST

    If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:

    • How old are you? What country do you live in?
    • Are you employed/making income? How much?
    • What are your objectives with this money? (Buy a house? Retirement savings?)
    • What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
    • What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
    • What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors? Any other assets?)
    • Any big debts (include interest rate) or expenses?
    • And any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer.

    Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our side bar also has useful resources.

    Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Bezos to step down as Amazon CEO - Blow out Q4

    Posted: 02 Feb 2021 01:14 PM PST

    Well, that was unexpected. They did have a blow out quarter though:

    Q4 sales topped $100 billion for the first time: $125.56 billion vs. $119.70 billion expected and $87.44 billion year-over-year

    EPS: $14.09 vs. $7.34 expected - which is insane as well.

    I'm gonna need a day to grasp this. What the hell Jeff.

    Edit: Bezos will transition to Executive Chair, and Andy Jassy will take over as CEO. Jassy is currently AWS CEO.

    "Amazon is what it is because of invention. We do crazy things together and then make them normal. We pioneered customer reviews, 1-Click, personalized recommendations, Prime's insanely-fast shipping, Just Walk Out shopping, the Climate Pledge, Kindle, Alexa, marketplace, infrastructure cloud computing, Career Choice, and much more," said Jeff Bezos, Amazon founder and CEO. "If you do it right, a few years after a surprising invention, the new thing has become normal. People yawn. That yawn is the greatest compliment an inventor can receive. When you look at our financial results, what you're actually seeing are the long-run cumulative results of invention. Right now I see Amazon at its most inventive ever, making it an optimal time for this transition."

    Source

    submitted by /u/Avaronah
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    Uber agrees to buy alcohol delivery service Drizly for $1.1 billion

    Posted: 02 Feb 2021 08:20 AM PST

    Uber announced Tuesday it is acquiring alcohol-delivery service Drizly for $1.1 billion in stock and cash.

    Following the completion of the transaction, Drizly's marketplace will be integrated with the Uber Eats app. The company will keep the standalone Drizly app as well, it said.

    Founded in 2012, Drizly has become the leading on-demand alcohol delivery service in the U.S. and is available in 1,400 cities. The purchase could help drive people to use Uber's app more often.

    Uber Eats has been a key segment to Uber's business amid the Covid-19 pandemic, which has dramatically reduced the number of people leaving their homes.

    "During this time our delivery business as been growing at extraordinary rates," Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi told CNBC on Tuesday. Drizly said it had more than 300% growth in the past year.

    The deal is expected to close within the first half of 2021. Uber said that it anticipates that more than 90% of the consideration to be paid to Drizly shareholders will consist of shares of Uber common stock, and the balance will be paid in cash.

    Uber stock was up more than 7% in the morning.

    Uber has focused its acquisition efforts on its Eats segment during the coronavirus pandemic. After talks failed to acquire food delivery service GrubHub, Uber acquired Postmates last July.

    At the same time, Uber has offloaded some of its more cost-eating transportation segments. The company last May transferred its electric bike and scooter business, Jump, to Lime. Uber also sold its self-driving unit, Advanced Technologies Group, to its start-up competitor Aurora Innovation on December 7, valuing ATG at approximately $4 billion at the time. Just a day later, it announced it was selling its flying taxi business, called Uber Elevate.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/02/uber-agrees-to-buy-alcohol-delivery-service-drizly-for-1point1-billion.html

    submitted by /u/illestMFKAalive
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    Lost $1500 investing in meme stocks in a 6 days

    Posted: 02 Feb 2021 02:10 PM PST

    I feel so relieved I sold all my shares this afternoon, even if it was at a big loss.

    Last week, I invested about 6k into various meme stocks. I started becoming nervous a few days later so I liquidated a lot of stocks. However, I bought back a lot of GME yesterday after a dip and finally gave up today seeing that the bubble had already burst and it wasn't a dip.

    Can I live without $1500. Yes (In fact I even forgot to cash in a $1500 check for over a year). I'm only 23 and in grad school, so I like to look at each dollar very carefully. I'm also anguished at all the things $1500 could've bought me (a 75'' flat screen TV, a plane ticket to anywhere in the world, etc. But 1500 is only about 3% of my assets so I'm trying to sweat this off and move on as quick as possible. But I learned not to jump on stocks based on emotion. At one point, I was even up $1000 but I got too greedy and look where I'm now.

    On the bright side, my overall portfolio is only down $600 since New Years Day and I'm still up 20% since last february (compared to the S&P gain on 18%)

    submitted by /u/Ukrainepolandborder
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    Why I believe AMD sees an All Time High in the coming months

    Posted: 02 Feb 2021 11:51 AM PST

    AMD was another stock targeted in Robinhood's restricted stock list late last week. This is absurd as AMD is a major player amongst the chip-makers recently seeming to have surpassed Intel in marketshare. It's chips are used in both the PS5 and Xbox Series S/X, showing that it is a major player on both sides of the gaming community.

    Robinhood has created artificial selling pressure on AMD, while AMD's short interest has increased to 5.9% Not a ton of short interest, but this number has only recently grown in correlation with the limitations put into place by Robinhood. Coincidence? I think not! Corruption? Maybe a little bit.

    There are also clear indicators that AMD will continue to gain market share in the GPU/Chip industry. As recently they had to diverge some production to Samsung as Taiwan Semiconductors could not produce enough fast enough. (Source: https://www.techradar.com/news/amd-might-solve-gpu-stock-woes-by-outsourcing-some-production-to-samsung)

    Along with these basic facts reflecting on AMD's product portfolio, something essential to do; one can see they are boasting their strongest product portfolio line in years including their new 7 Ryzen 5000 chip that is for both mobile processors and desktops. Sales of the Ryzen chip grew 18% YoY, this had assisted in amazing earnings growth.

    AMD's Earnings Summary 2019 vs. 2020 showed Record revenue of 9.76 Billion up 45% from 2019. Their gross margin of 45% increased for the 5th straight year. Along with this Net Income and EPS doubled from the prior year. Finally operating cash flow was up to 1.07 billion a 117% increase YoY, and they had record free cash flow of $777 Million a 182% increase YoY. All together this makes for an extremely strong balance sheet with 2.29 Billion in cash, cash equivilants and short term investments.

    The one major risk I see in AMD is that Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple all want to begin to create their own in-house chips. Along with this while AMD has surpassed Intel and is competing with Nividia, it could lose market share and fall behind. This company faced bankruptcy twice once in 2000 when the tech bubble popped, and again in 2012. However, I believe that this company will continue there exponential growth and have major gains in it's stock over the course of 2021 and see $100 by the end of February.

    Hope this is all helpful!

    Disclosure: I own 30 shares of AMD and will continue to hold for the years to come.

    submitted by /u/PeanutInvestor
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    ZERO CARBON LITHIUM - Rich through lithium - without environmental damage!

    Posted: 03 Feb 2021 01:33 AM PST

    Hello,

    I want to make it clear from the start that I am not a professional financial advisor. Everything I am about to write has come from my own research. You should cross check everything and make your own decision on what you will do with this information.

    DISCLAIMER: This is not going to be a PUMP & DUMP. I don't want to achieve that either. I report here because I am convinced of the idea and the company!

    What is it about?

    I've been watching an interesting company since December 2020 that advertises with the following slogan: "We exist to decarbonize the currently high carbon production footprint of lithiumion batteries used in electric vehicles." The company is called Vulcan Energy Resources[1].

    ISIN: AU0000066086

    WKN: A2PV3A

    How did you find the company?

    I became aware of the company because I see that there is a trend towards sustainable investing[2]. So I started looking for a company that appealed to me. At some point I came across an article that a project was underway to extract lithium without damaging the environment[3]. Gripped by the topic, I spent several days trying to find out what was going on and what it was all about.

    What about sustainability?

    ZERO CARBON LITHIUM: The project is called Zero Carbon Lithium[4] and is being driven by Vulcan Energy Resources as mentioned above. The current main way to extract and refine lithium, from hard rock mines, will emit about 1.05 billion tons of CO2 to produce the amount of lithium needed to electrify all the world's passenger cars. Unlike current lithium extraction methods, Zero Carbon Lithium will have virtually no impact on the public or the environment. That means no large open pit mines, no large, unsightly, water-guzzling evaporation ponds, or process plants that run on fossil fuels.

    After reading that, I was hooked for now. But not yet ready to invest. Moreover, the share was still a penny stock at the time. That was too risky for me. So I looked weekly to see if something is about to happen.

    The Decision:

    Investing based on an idea is never a good idea, so I took a close look at the company and the idea:

    1. Since I already had a bad experience once, with such a young idea, I first looked how often and how well information is published[5]. Surprisingly, it is published diligently and everything fits so far. ✔
    2. Publishing is one thing, the other is whether there is something behind it. Since listed companies have a disclosure obligation, it is easy to see whether the figures from the Investor Centre correspond to those on the stock exchange[6]. ✔
    3. Financially, you can't do an analysis á la Warren Buffet here. The company is still young, and has a lot to invest. Nevertheless, I took a look at what is going on. Quick Analysis: More assets than liabilities ✔. Equity consistently increased ✔. Cash flow and net income: naturally in the red due to the investments ✖. More does not make sense here, as said value investing does not work here.
    4. Vulcan operates a lot of geothermal plants and is familiar with the matter. So there is internal and independent expertise in geothermal and lithium on site for project execution[7]. ✔
    5. Location - the right market, compelling supply-demand dynamics: being at the center of the European lithium ion battery industry is a major advantage for a semi-bulk product. Europe will be the world's fastest-growing lithium ion battery production center in the 2020s, with no local supply of lithium hydroxide.[7] ✔
    6. Positive framework study: world-leading industry experts in lithium extraction and geothermal energy are behind the first study of its kind, which provides a solid foundation for the start of feasibility studies planned soon.[7] ✔
    7. I understood how the process works and read the feasibility study.Not only lithium is extracted but also other rare metals[9]. ✔

    If you go through my sources with interest, you will see that there is a very solid basis behind the project. But what was the deciding point for me to invest was the fact that Vulcan intentionally requested a trading halt while they were conducting the study to prevent wild speculation. This happened once in January2021[9] and once now around February 2021[10]. I got in in January because that was a sign to me that Vulcan was serious.

    In addition, Vulcan gave a presentation to the EU Commission, with positive feedback. Vulcan has signed a binding agreement with the EU-funded EIT InnoEnergy as part of the Business Investment Platform (BIP) of the European Battery Alliance (EBA) initiative of the European Commission. This agreement is expected to significantly accelerate the momentum of Vulcan's Zero Carbon Lithium project. The project is located in Germany, at the center of the fastest growing lithium market in the world: the European battery industry for electric vehicles [11].

    What's in store for the future?

    I can't see into the future, of course, but I am sure that with this project electric vehicles will gain significant momentum. Also, the EU would be more independent and I personally like that a lot. In addition, there is no need to dry salt lakes or make bad environmental cuts like in other countries. I also see it critically that we consume here, and in mines at the other end of the world people have to work life-threatening for our luxury.

    Is $VUL the next $GME?

    Please, this is not a comparison. This is about the environment and the future of next generations. I am against PUMP&DUMP! If you are convinced of a company you invest and don't gamble!

    Is now the right time?

    I do not know. You have to decide that for yourself. I am invested myself in the meantime, because I am convinced of the idea therefore I will hold the share also with fluctuations. I got in at ~4.00 - 5.00€.

    Sources:

    [1] Vulcan Energy Resources: https://v-er.com/

    [2] Sustainable Investing Trend: https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/sustainability-investing-institutional-asset-owners

    [3] Lithium Geothermal energy: https://www.electrive.net/2020/06/15/lithium-gewinnung-aus-geothermie-anlagen-in-deutschland/

    [4] Zero Carbon Lithium: https://v-er.com/zero-carbon-lithium/

    [5] Vulcan Investor Centre: https://v-er.com/investor-centre/

    [6] Yahoo Finance VUL: https://de.finance.yahoo.com/quote/6KO.F/financials?p=6KO.F

    [7] Vulcan Facts: https://www.geothermie.de/bibliothek/lexikon-der-geothermie/v/vulkan-energy-firma.html

    [8] Vulcan Positive Pre Feasibility Study: https://vul.live.irmau.com/site/PDF/6a9c79d2-5c99-40d7-ba32-72cd6ea3a6f6/PositivePreFeasibilityStudy

    [9] Trading Halt January2021: https://vul.live.irmau.com/site/PDF/e5371199-d0f8-4d91-82b1-f7e1ed7ebae6/TradingHalt

    [10] Trading Halt February 2021: https://vul.live.irmau.com/site/PDF/492bcfbd-6157-4aec-8542-f6641341578f/TradingHalt

    [11] Vulcan signs with EU: https://finfeed.com/small-caps/juniors/vul-signs-agreement-with-eu-backed-body-to-drive-the-vulcan-zero-carbon-lithium-project/

    submitted by /u/Megajin_
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    Why I think Lemonade is overvalued

    Posted: 02 Feb 2021 09:58 PM PST

    Hi all,

    I'd like to explain why I believe LMND is currently overvalued, and encourage you to please poke holes in my arguments. Tell me what I'm missing please, particularly re. the path to profitability and the reinsurance topic.

    Basics

    • Lemonade says it's an insurance company that leverages AI to price risk better.
    • Lemonade claims to "disrupt" the insurance industry by using AI, implying all others don't.
    • Lemonade has a do-good attitude, borderline arrogant, to all of its marketing. This appeals to quite some folks primarily in the U.S., as their growing client numbers show.
    • The company was recently discussed by a bearish outlet called "the friendly bear", and by Citron. The Friendly Bear article is worth a reading imo, the Citron video was absolutely weak and didn't attack the company meaningfully.
    • From what I can tell, customers are either extremely happy or extremely disappointed with the company. The former are mainly - not only! - the ones that never submitted a claim and only experienced the sign-up process. My research is limited to reading reviews on the app store.

    ​

    Bull case

    • Lemonade's AI capability: If LMND does manage to use AI to price risk better than its competitors, this could result in lower loss ratios. However, note that AI typically needs a lot of data points; data points LMND has just started collecting. Heavy reliance on AI also reduces salary spending and should lead to low costs of adding incremental customers.
    • Target demographic: Below 40 year olds, due to hipster-oriented marketing and your phone being the only distribution channel. The idea is to grow alongside those customers.
    • Doing good: Parts of earnings go to the lemonade foundation and from there to charities pre-selected by policyholders.
    • Founder: Founders have founded and grown firms previously (Fiverr).
    • Growth potential: LMND is rapidly expanding its insurance offerings, having most recently started to offer pet insurance, life insurance.

    Bear case

    • Use of reinsurance: LMND cedes 75% of risks, and 75% of premiums received, to reinsurers. I think this is the main red flag here. Superior AI should allow them to underwrite only good risks, meaning they need less reinsurance - not more - than other insurance companies. The 25% ceding commission they gain is a small drop, it means they cede "only" 56% of premium, not the full 75%. Note that in addition to ceding 75%, they use even more reinsurance to manage the remaining 25% - meaning they probably retain about 20% of risk - and premium - themselves.
    • Use of reinsurance 2: The S1 (July 1, 2020) announces the plan to start ceding 75% starting in Q3. So one quarter after going public, the company dramatically changes it's business model for it's core business which is providing insurance. This is suspect to say the least.
    • Slight risk of misstating the truth: (Disclaimer: I can't judge as to whether this is illegal, nor do I want to enter that discussion). However, I believe that a) They might not actually pass the litmus test for being an insurance company. They are, at the moment, not more than a broker for reinsurers, that earns about 20 cents for every 1 dollar in premium.
    • Political risk: The charities one can select do not resonate with less liberal folks, according to app store reviews.
    • No path to profit visible: GWP in 3Q20 was 71.2, but ceded written premium was 118.6, resulting in NWP of -47.4. Losses and loss adjustment expenses decreased. Both is a result of the heavy reinsurance use. The gross earned premium figure in the 3Q20 can't be reconciled with prior quarters and the company presents gross earned premium of positive 42.9, but then another 32.4 are ceded to reinsurers, leading to revenue of only 17.8.
    • Use of AI most likely overstated: a) The firm has no significant R&D spending - "technology development" is an own line item (5m in Q3) but it's four times less than sales and marketing, and half that of G&A. This is clearly not an indicator LMND invests massively into its AI capabilities. Rather they seek to push top line. b) If AI is so good there would be less need for reinsurance because the AI would be capable to weed out bad risks. Instead, LMND uses a shitload of reinsurance.
    • Planned share issuance at 165$ - then at the all-time high, they announced the offering. A smart move that will bring in cash they need to grow (think advertising). And an indicator that mgmt thinks the stock is currently overvalued.
    • Abroad growth is slow: In Germany, LMND is a very tiny (think <1% of market) player according to news by competitor wefox and by other articles. In France they won some lawsuit about the use of the color pink, but I haven't yet found any data on their market share there, I assume it's negligible.
    • The company's stock price started jumping once the stock was a suggested buy by motley fool. Motley fool regularly issues bullish articles on the stock. In addition, the firm seems - to me - to be actively marketing its shares through social media like tiktok. This sheds in my view a very dubious light on the firm.
    • Lack of insurance experience by chief executives. While they have succeeded founding companies and taking them public in the past, they have no insurance industry experience. I see this as a major red flag in such a complex industry.

    My main issue / stuff that prevents me from going all-in on my bearish bet:

    • No obvious catalyst visible that could trigger a big drop in share price - I'm afraid that if they keep growing customers, as top line grows, so will the stock price. I'm afraid investors see this as one of the only few "hot new stocks" in the insurance segment, leaving little alternative to investing if one wants to be part of innovation in insurance.
    • Side note: Timing-wise, one problem might arise in 3 years when they will have to renegotiate the 75% reinsurance agreements. If their AI sucks, then their risks are not above market average, and if that's the case, reinsurers might raise premium / reduce ceding commission. I see this as one potential catalyst, but it's far in the future.

    Positions currently held, albeit with medium conviction only, and planning to hold at least after Q4 release:

    • 2x LMND Feb 21 (Feb 12 expiration) 120P, currently worth 232$
    • 1x LMND Jan22 (Jan 21 expiration) 100P, currently worth 2900$
    • Side note: all options seem thinly traded and bid-ask is huge
    submitted by /u/biglyhonorpacioli
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    Google Earnings 4q 2020 Alphabet beats

    Posted: 02 Feb 2021 02:14 PM PST

    From CNBC

    • Earnings: $22.30 per share, adjusted, vs., $15.90 per share as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.
    • Revenue: $56.90 billion, vs. $53.13 billion as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.
    • Google Cloud: $3.83 billion, vs. $3.81 billion as expected by analysts, according to StreetAccount.
    • YouTube ads: $6.89 billion, vs. $6.11 billion as expected by analysts, according to StreetAccount.
    • Traffic acquisition costs (TAC): $10.47 billion, vs. $9.32 billion as expected by analysts, according to StreetAccount.

    The company's advertising units pulled in $46.2 billion, up nearly 22% from a year earlier.

    I've been buying google the past few months. Figured Ill start a thread because Im not seeing anyone else do it.

    How do people feel about GOOGLE moonshot investments? I don't follow it but as far as I know, they close down gaming sector (Stadia), wifi air balloons?, they still have life sciences going I think. Boston dynamics didn't pan out. If they tightened up their finances they could increase operating margin. Waymo is very compelling though.

    submitted by /u/smokeyjay
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    risk mitigation: how can I soften the blow

    Posted: 02 Feb 2021 09:19 AM PST

    So, I bought GameStop towards the beginning of this whole debacle with 44 shares an average share price of about $250. I'll admit I let the greed get the best of me even though there were many times last week I simply wanted to just walk away with the money i didn't. Oh well..

    All said and done, I'm currently down about 7k on this stock. I probably should just cut my losses but I feel like if the big boys have some tricks up their sleeves maybe so do some of you.

    In the long term I was thinking about potentially averaging down my cost per share to try and sell at a break even if possible. This would obviously expose me to even more risk BUT... for example, say the price were to drop to around 20 dollars per share if I bought 500 shares this would bring my average cost to about $38.6. However, I've never done something like this so I'm not entirely sure how the math would work out in the end.

    Obviously we don't know how to future of Gamestop will pan out, maybe it's worth around $100 in a few years like Chewy or it goes the route of KB toys and ceases to exist. What I do know is I played myself and took home a very expensive lesson lol.

    submitted by /u/41351865132435
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    $ABML is a strong play and has great technology

    Posted: 02 Feb 2021 05:56 PM PST

    I've been watching this stock for a while and they have a good management team with ex-Tesla people on board. The technology is solid and there is a need for that they are doing. Redwood Materials, also ex-Tesla is also one to watch for when they go public but $ABML has a lot of upside and a cheap entry point.

    Recycling batteries will be critical as there is only a finite amount of lithium and likely not enough lithium to fully electrify the world. Not to mention recycling heavy metals such as cobalt because let's face it NMC cathodes aren't going to be replaced for a long time.

    submitted by /u/stonksandbling
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    $UWMC BIG EARNINGS TOMORROW

    Posted: 02 Feb 2021 07:51 PM PST

    United Wholesale Mortgages is the #1 wholesale mortgage lender and #2 mortgage lender in the US and expected to beat earnings tomorrow with astronomical numbers! UWM recently went public with a valuation of 16B calculated at 9.5x using the companies estimated adjusted net income of the first nine months ended September 2020 which was 1.7B x 9.5 this is BEFORE their record breaking earnings in Q3 and Q4 numbers were considered.

    In Q3 they closed 54.2B in closed loan volume with 3.18% margin which equals to 1.45B in net income. This is a money printing machine especially with low interest rates and a booming housing market. Pays a dividend at .40c/share, current yield is 3.6% at $10.88 you will be buying in at the floor after consolidating for weeks.

    Q4 net is expected to be 1.8~2B tomorrow afterhours. Conference call on Thursday 10am with financial analysts to review the results and upgraded PT comes after. Confirmed Super Bowl commercial on Sunday as well.

    submitted by /u/karlmoneywu
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    Why the VW squeeze was different from GME's

    Posted: 02 Feb 2021 01:26 PM PST

    While there are a lot of similarities between the VW and GME short squeezes, the VW squeeze was mediated through the use of cash settled options (Porsche AG was the buyer)

    In fact, Porsche had no obligation to buy shares (and they did not), and yes, P-AG made a lot more money in this trade (than in selling cars), at a time when their cars were not selling too well

    Here is an NYT article. It might be behind a pay wall for some, though

    https://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/30/business/worldbusiness/30iht-norris31.1.17372644.html

    submitted by /u/bapcha
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    Timber - New NYSE listing - West Fraser Timber (WFG) - Commodities are hot Lumber prices about 2.5- 3 times a year ago and longer term price history

    Posted: 02 Feb 2021 11:07 PM PST

    This new listing after the merger of West Fraser Timber (WFT.to) with Norbord (OSB)

    West Fraser started trading on NYSE Feb 2. The merger completed after the close Feb 2nd, and Feb 3 will be the first day of trading for the merged company.

    This combination of the world's largest lumber producer, with the largest OSB producer, brings synergies to two very efficient, very profitable companies, at a moment in time when lumber and OSB/plywood are near all time $ highs and demand is high and looks to be prolonged - perhaps several years (go read the transcripts from DHI or TOL or WY)

    West Fraser / Norbord are headquartered in Canada but have the majority of their production in the US and by for most of their sales in the US. Being formerly traded on the TMX in Toronto - the move to NY will soon bring into investors horizon that the combined company looks very attractive vs it's US based peers. Over time, (days, weeks, months) the gap will close. The US based lumber producers appear attractive right now as their valuations are increasing. Check out the expected earnings for WFG this quarter (in TWO WEEKS). I am confident earnings will be strong - we'll have to see how the stock reacts - but there is a room for the price to appreciate in my view, especially when earnings are released (FEB 18th)

    Check it out and give me feedback if you agree or disagree. search my profile to read more of my views on this

    And for a preview look at the earnings of Interfor IFP.to or IFP.ca being released FEB4

    Both companies are headquartered in Canada but do most of their lumber production and sales in the US. They tend to trade in tandem.

    submitted by /u/KwantumKid
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    New investor lost 1k for da memes

    Posted: 03 Feb 2021 01:40 AM PST

    21 y/o in the military here.

    Recently jumped late on the hype train w/ 1k (5shares @ 200) that's been sitting in my bank account since HS and lost it. I am gonna hold however because that money is literally gambling money that I knew I was tossing into a garbage fire.

    Now I'm going to start an actual portfolio w/ Charles Schwab. I learned more about money and the stock market the past 4 days then I did in my entire life time. My next go to is going to be a long haul including QQQ and SPY w/ around 3k in savings. Going to solely focus on long term index funds and see where I turn out in a couple years.

    For those who lost money in the meme stocks please make sure to write it off on your taxes... it seems like majority of people just threw in money at the peak and is now doing no research after they inevitably lost all that money.

    Please do your research. The market isn't for a quick cash grab. It has multiple strategies and all different kinda of interesting theories. I have never had more fun than I had in the past 5 days, and I think I've learned more valuable information in the past couple days than I did my entire time in HS.

    submitted by /u/hurwan
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    Vaxart (NASDAQ:VXRT) stock is heading higher on Tuesday and there are a couple of things investors will want to keep in mind about the biotechnology company. VXRT stock gaining has to do with clinical trial results. Vaxart is expected to announce results from a Phase 1 trial sometime this week.

    Posted: 02 Feb 2021 01:11 PM PST

    The company is working on a vaccine for the novel coronavirus that works via tablets instead of injection.

    If Vaxart reports positive results from this clinical trial, investors will likely see shares of VXRT stock soar higher.

    The stock is up 48% and climbing. The stock price is Still in the low $20s but has a huge upside as the article suggests. Be first to capitalize on, in my opinion the best alternative for Covid 19, a oral pill solution that is easily adminstered and transported. This will undoubtedly be the ultimate Coronavirus solution going forward as the different strains continue.

    submitted by /u/Guru899
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    The future of manufacturing: Desktop Metal - short term and long term play

    Posted: 02 Feb 2021 09:37 PM PST

    Hello fellow investors, I am here to present a smart play, short and long term.

    Desktop Metal (DM)

    DM is a pure play manufacturing company that develops metal 3d printers. They are looking to replace metal casting and metal injection molding in the next 5 - 10 years. I believe that it could become a major player in the advanced manufacturing revolution and have 10x valuation.

    The share price right now is around $25. I am expecting it to go to at least $30 in the very near future and this can easily go to $100 in 2-3 years.

    Pros :

    1. Stellar team: The team consist of professors from MIT, engineers from google, Stratasys and the likes.

    2. Clients: All major automotive OEMs such as General Motors, Ford, Nissan as well as Electronics manufacturers such as SBD are their client.

    3. They just launched a new manufacturing system today. The new printer eliminated the solvent debind process which will decrease the cost and time of manufacturing.

    4. Earnings are coming up on 11th Feb.

    5. The average price target is around $26. The high is $30. The buy rating is around 70% with 0% sell rating.

    6. It has a 25% short interest. There are around 15000 $25 calls expiring on 19th Feb. The short sellers are trying to keep the price of the stock below $25. Notice that today the price jumped on the news of the new printer but fell immediately afterwards.

    7. Chamath did a PIPE investment in this.

    8. It's 10th on the PRNT etf by Cathie Woods.

    9. They just bought a dental 3d printing company which is a leader in their field. They have enough cash reserve to buy competitors and increase their revenue streams.

    Cons :

    1. The company is still pre revenue. Earliest revenue would be by 2022 probably.

    2. Huge competition from players such as 3ds, Stratasys, Formlabs etc

    (More cons are welcome)

    My positions:

    100 shares at $21.35

    7 calls for $40 05/21 9 calls for $35 05/21 1 call for $20 05/21

    Due to all the positive sentiment around, this should easily run upto atleast $30 before the earnings. It has already touched $28 last week. Also, for the technical analysis geeks, this has formed a nice cup and handle shape and should be ready to rocket!

    Buying May or further call should make 75-100% profit in the short term. Should hold shares for the long term.

    PS: This is not an investment advice. I am a Mechanical Engineer and I love 3d printing and hence I have invested in this stock. Please do your personal DD.

    submitted by /u/mechdaddy10
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    Heads up: Vanguard has excruciatingly long waiting times for bank details verification.

    Posted: 03 Feb 2021 03:34 AM PST

    Edit: Everywhere where I mention "days", I am talking about business days.

    I recently decided to liquidate and withdraw all my holdings from Vanguard as part of a move that I'm doing to a different brokerage that will allow me to manage my investments a bit more actively. As part of the whole ordeal, I decided that I want to switch the bank account that is connected to my Vanguard account to a different one into which I would like to withdraw the funds.**Oh boy, oh boy, did I play myself.**After inputting the details of my bank account I received a message saying that since they could not automatically verify the bank account I would have to upload proof that the account was mine (a bank statement) and that it would take roughly 12 days after receiving the proof that they would allow me to make withdrawals again. I thought "OK fine, security and whatnot, I can play along". I sent them the document and eagerly awaited the day when they would verify my account. 12 days later (on the day I expect my account to get verified) I receive the following message:

    Dear Investor,Thank you for uploading the relevant documentation for verification, I can confirm we have successfully received this.Our verification team are now reviewing your documents, which is currently taking up to 12 business days.Once completed or if anything further is required, we will send you a secure message via your Vanguard account.

    What ?! Another 12 days starting from now!

    Fine, whatever, nothing I can really do about it. So the wait continues. It's day 24 today and I am once again excited and ready to get my account verified so I can finally move my funds to my new broker. This morning I receive another message from the Vanguard personal investor team asking me to upload an additional piece of proof. I am furious! I, unfortunately, estimate that this will take another 24 days to review. What are they doing? It is a 1-page document! How does it take them 24 days to review 1 page. What kind of advanced CSI forensics are they running on my PDF file that will prompt such ridiculous wait times. Also unrelated to bank information verification, it takes about 6 days to liquidate a fund (not ETF) and settle the cash and about 3 days for a withdrawal to go through. All in all, I estimate the whole process will take me about 58 days.

    This is just a heads up to anyone thinking of investing with Vanguard. They like to take their time with everything so plan ahead if you're thinking of changing bank details. Also never lock up money in investments that you think you might need urgently in the near future.

    Thanks for reading. Now, I'm just gonna go back to the nice charts of my new broker and daydream of how I could be putting my money to work rather than watching the market rally without me.

    submitted by /u/gecaka
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    DoorDash, or how venture capital has subsidized cheap tendie delivery

    Posted: 02 Feb 2021 03:36 PM PST

    Much has already been written about the valuation of DoorDash following its IPO last December, including Citron calling it 'the most ridiculous IPO of 2020'. I have compiled my thoughts here for some DueDash on DoorDiligence.

    I should also note that both GrubHub and Uber report earnings this week (Feb 3, and 10th, respectively), so that should provide some insight on whether my near-term predictions hold. As of this afternoon's earnings report, Chipotle's digital orders decreased 7% from the previous quarter.

    TL/DR: DoorDash is a nonprofit organization that teaches math and financial literacy to delivery drivers. This is a company that is overvalued by a factor of 2-6x, yet can't make money during a pandemic where people are locked in their homes and in-person restaurant visits are banned.

    Bull thesis for DoorDash:

    • COVID-19 pandemic continues longer than expected, or US doesn't vaccinate 60%+ of populace by EOY 2021
    • Strong revenue growth over the past 2 years. "Contribution profit" (non-GAAP) is slowly increasing
    • Rapidly increased market share, and may continue to do so
    • Subscription model, strong sales/total users compared to GrubHub (despite lower sales/transaction)
    • Ghost kitchen model?
    • Last-mile delivery logistics focus

    Bear thesis for DoorDash

    • Doordash is vastly overpriced compared to its competition, and that competition will likely further drive down margins/take-rates and commoditize food-delivery.
      • DoorDash has the lowest take-rate (revenues/gross order value [GOV])
      • Uber has a somewhat profitable/EBITDA positive ride-share segment, that will likely recover post-COVID. Uber also just expanded it's delivery business with the purchase of Drizzly (alcohol)
      • GrubHub has actually been profitable in previous years
    Company Market cap TTM GOV TTM Revenues Take rate P/GOV P/S EPS (9mo) Sales/User ($)
    DoorDash 58,380 19,007 2,214 11.65% 3.1 26.4 -3.34 123
    GrubHub 6,910 7,860 1,657 21.08% 0.9 4.2 -0.96 55
    Uber 95,490 57,905 10,631 18.36% 1.6 9.0 -3.33 136
    UberRides (65%) 61,930 33,337 7,669 23.00% 1.9 8.1 n/a n/a
    UberEats (35%) 33,560 24,568 2,962 12.06% 1.4 11.3 n/a n/a

    NB: I split up Uber market cap 65/35 to get a better idea of how to potentially value UberEats on its own

    • Lack of a moat and no brand loyalty: a large percentage of customers use multiple apps, and there is significant geographic competition across the food-delivery companies.
    • Significant future legislative/regulatory risks around employee classification
    • Lock up period ends in mid March, after the first earnings release (Feb 25) – and then 113M shares, purchased at an average price of $8.73, will be available to trade on the market. Average daily volume for DASH is 4.4M shares/day. Stock price has rapidly reached $185-200 level, but has hit 140s before.
    • Increasing revenues are due to the pandemic, and will likely decrease in the future - DoorDash has not been proftable, even during COVID-19.
      • Personal disposable income, and increased off-premise food purchases are likely the primary drivers of DASH's revenue growth quarter/quarter
      • Lifting of COVID-related restrictions, and abatement of stimulus funds will likely bring personal disposable income and off-premise food purchases back to 2019 trends
    • Long-term, these apps will likely turn into last-mile delivery/logistics companies. Yet, FDX and UPS also trade at low P/S ratios (0.86, and 1.69 respectively, with 60 and 135B market caps)

    DoorDash is priced as if it has both 100% of the market share for food delivery, and that food deliveries will not decrease once the pandemic has ended. As you can see in the chart below, both personal disposable income, and off-premise food and beverage purchase ("OPFP"). Due to the COVID-19 pandemic stimulus, both measures drastically increased in Q1 and Q2 of 2019, before starting to level off and decline. I suspect that we will see a decline back towards 2019 levels - if we eventually get a significant portion of the populace vaccinated and withstanding additional stimulus checks. Once we're out of this mess, everyone and their mom will be wanting to eat out at restaurants, not order food to eat the one place they've been trapped for the last year.

    Here is a chart I put together overlaying data from food-delivery companies, and economic data that I hope illustrates this point.

    Let's run some projections based on off-premise food purchases (data from Bureau of Economic Analysis). We will look at positive, neutral, and negative projections for DoorDash, in terms of what share of total OPFP they procure, and whether they can increase their take-rate. 'Bear case' here is a longer-term projection if things return towards 2019 levels

    Bull case Current (Q4) Bear case
    Off-premise food (billions) 1150 1138 1025
    Share of OPFP (bps) 75 63 (*) 30
    Projected Q4 orders (millions) 8625 7169 3075
    Take rate 13% 11.7% 11%
    Projected Q4 revenues (millions) 1121 839 338

    (*) Consensus revenue estimates by analyst's project $938M in revenue, which would be a 0.70% share of OPFP. Q3 2020 share of OPFP was 0.63% for DoorDash

    If we valued DoorDash like we did its competitors, its market cap would be: (using projections from previous table)

    ...if we valued DoorDash like we did (millions of $): Bull Current (Q4) Bear
    Currently (26 P/S) 80,088 72,641 59,441
    UberEats (12 P/S) 36,447 33,058 27,051
    GrubHub (5 P/S) 15,186 13,774 11,271

    I believe a strong, bull-case valuation is realistically somewhere around $29B - this puts us at $90/share

    • Let's assume total food delivery gross sales stays at 2020 levels of $60B/year, and DoorDash captures 100% of the market. This gives us 6.6B revenue, and a 28B valuation at ~4x P/S
    • Let's assume total food delivery gross sales gradually decline (~8% q/q) over 2021, and DoorDash maintains its current market share. This provides $3.5B in revenue over 2021 (still, a significant bump over Q3 2020 TTM revenues), so even an 8x P/S valuation puts us back at 28B
    • $29B is also close to the current and bearish projections for food orders in the above table, given an UberEats-like valuation

    A more realistic, long-term valuation is probably about 50% lower - around $60/share

    Additional links

    submitted by /u/lazyear
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    Discussion on the lasting impacts of market volatility.

    Posted: 02 Feb 2021 10:04 PM PST

    I've had a lot of concern over the last couple of weeks over the lasting impacts of this market volatility.

    I've been investing since March 2020 so I'm new blood and I haven't see anything like this before

    Articles like: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/janet-yellen-to-meet-with-regulators-on-gamestop-market-volatility-11612318927

    Where they say: " Analysts expect the trading mania could potentially lead to tougher SEC rules on brokerage firms to ensure they have sufficient capital during periods of market volatility. Some lawmakers on Capitol Hill have also proposed legislative changes, such as restrictions on short selling and financial transactions taxes, that could address the situation."

    Do you think they regulate us in the near/distant future?

    Think they touch our options or institute a transaction tax?

    submitted by /u/Resident-Comfort-108
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    RIDE long haul. Lordstown backed by gm and has a LG contract

    Posted: 02 Feb 2021 03:31 PM PST

    I was looking at EV stocks one really stuck out to be a good long play.

    RIDE went public a few months ago its traded at $24usd right now. Their backed by gm and have contracts with LG along with owning the old gm warehouse in Ohio.

    Lordstown (Ride) also already has 100k preorders for their ev trucks that are pushed for commercial companies. They estimate the end user will pay $52k for the truck.

    Their starting beta testing in a few weeks or possibly right now. (did a quick google and one caught fire... GREAT START). However tesla has had this issue before also.

    Now the company hasn't made it to the "make it or break it" stage. They estimate 33k trucks will be made in 2022 and it'll double every year. Gm has also announced they'll be stepping into the ev game and has something like 28 EVs by 2024. Could this mean gm might have interest in the company because they want to rebrand lordtowns truck and sell it?

    submitted by /u/CaptN_Cook_
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    Suncor energy earnings tomorrow

    Posted: 02 Feb 2021 04:24 PM PST

    I am long on Suncor to start off, but I want this discussion to stay unbiased.

    Edit: Prices are Canadian dollars as I initially wrote this in r/Canadianinvestor , but being listed on the NYSE as well, it would be great to get other insights.

    I can't understand how the current share price is still under $22? They are an absolute giant with mountains of cashflow, yet seem detached from the rest of the energy market. With the current price of oil hovering around $55 and likely on it's way to $60 ( http://ca.investing.com/analysis/chart-of-the-day-this-trading-pattern-shows-oil-is-heading-toward-60-200446695 ), does anyone have any insight?

    Suncor has stated openly that oil @ $35 covers costs and dividends. We have been above this price thoughout the quarter. With an average price target around $28-$30 and strong possibility of dividends increasing with tomorrows earnings report, it seems like a no brainier right now at current prices.

    https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/tse:su/forecast

    https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/TSE/SU/

    Analysis in the last few weeks regarding earnings predictions seems positive as well with price targets raising. Interested in all opinions, thanks!

    https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/why-earnings-season-could-be-great-for-suncor-su-2021-02-02

    submitted by /u/Jgam81
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    Postal Service Replacement Vehicles- Discussion

    Posted: 02 Feb 2021 09:37 AM PST

    I came across a video from Donut Media about how outdated current USPS delivery vehicles are. They then went into how they'll be replaced and the ~6 billion dollar contract that comes with them. Currently it's narrowed down to 3 finalists but has been postponed due to COVID-19. The final 3 companies/ partnerships are Workhorse Group ($WKHS), Karsan and Morgan Olson ($KRSOF & no ticker found for Morgan Olson), and Oshkosh and Ford ($OSK & $F respectively.) I wanted to start a discussion on this and get some other peoples views on investment opportunities. Supposedly, a decision is expected to come out soon.

    With the big push towards EV vehicles I feel like workhorse has the best shot. Ford and Oshkosh are going with a regular gas engine while the other 2 manufacturers are going EV/ Hybrid.

    Not sure if someone has brought this up already if not and I'm sorry if I missed it.

    Info:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.trucks.com/2020/12/01/postal-service-delays-mail-truck-replacement-contract-again/amp/

    https://www.hammerlanelegends.com/news/us-postal-service-to-award-63b-contract-for-new-mail-truck-this-year-see-the-finalists

    https://youtu.be/RE5FGyq12ds (Donut Media video)

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/investorplace.com/2021/01/wkhs-stock-no-shoo-in-for-usps-contract/amp/

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.trucks.com/2018/03/05/usps-karsan-hybrid-mail-truck/amp/

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.trucks.com/2018/03/06/oshkosh-ford-usps-mail-truck/amp/

    submitted by /u/jk-phill
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    Vanguard ETFs and Sector Spreads

    Posted: 02 Feb 2021 05:47 PM PST

    I was recently told ( from another Vanguard investor ) that any portfolio index over 10% in each sector through 8-10 Vanguard ETF's is inefficient and not diversified enough to mitigate risk in this current climate. The sector spreads are never that straightforward without carryover.

    Disclaimer - I laughed and whole heartily disagree.

    I'm curious as to what the consensus is from others here who primarily invest in the Vanguard funds. Do you strive for even spreads or do you lean in and over index?

    submitted by /u/IQinvestor
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    Long NOK wondering about 8% drop in price today (especially with earnings to be released this week)

    Posted: 02 Feb 2021 07:32 AM PST

    Hi everyone, been wondering about this for some time now. I know NOK is one of the RH stocks that saw crazy volatility last week (or was that the week before now? I'm getting confused!). I've been long the stock. It's been a pretty flat stock in my portfolio and it shouldn't be 7% of my portfolio, but hey still learning here.

    I am having a hard time understanding this 8% drop today. With earnings coming this Thursday, and all "reports" pointing to a solid earnings report. Does this drop mean that some who "actually knows" what will be reported are starting to cover their positions?

    I guess I'm asking the following: Do drops in stock prices, right before earnings reports, point to the likelihood of bad news?

    submitted by /u/Awkward-Painter-2024
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