Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing |
- Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.
- Historically it's way better to invest at market close than at market open, most gains occur overnight
- Castor Maritime ($CTRM) to buy two LR2 tankers for $27MM. Market Cap jumps $250MM.
- "The worst stocks are doing the best"
- Surge by Disney+ to nearly 95 million subscriptions leads to surprise profit
- APXT - The Dark Horse SPAC
- $FSR - 60% potential gain $27 PT Morgan Stanley - DD
- Why Intel Will Reap Huge Benefits From Biden Administration Policy - $INTC
- First North American Publicly traded Bitcoin ETF Approved by Canadian Securities Regulator
- BNY Mellon to offer bitcoin services, a validation of crypto from a key bank in the financial system
- Temporary Passive Income: HYSA vs REIT vs ETF vs VTSAX
- Still Bullish on BP short term and here's why:
- NAT DD, Why I'm Invested long term
- Playboy is going public, and CEO says potential ‘is endless’
- Stock holding during a merger
- [Yahoo Finance] Uber's Plan for a Profitable 2021 Requires Questionable Accounting
- Taking a covered call premium, reinvesting, back into underlying, and repeating
- Potential American firms that can produce semiconductor chips desperately needed to produce EV's
- DD on Momentus (SRAC) - A Space Infrastructure Company
- Perion Network (PERI) Earnings Update
- RIGL Pharmaceutical sand a critique on my DD/FA
- Financial bubble and how to make money from it
- Why i’m uncertain about Bitcoin
- Phase I pharmaceutical and biotechnology bubble
| Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Posted: 12 Feb 2021 02:00 AM PST If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our side bar also has useful resources. Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||
| Posted: 11 Feb 2021 12:19 PM PST Found this 2018 article, interesting/fun fact: The Stock Market Works by Day, but It Loves the Night
Chart: https://i.imgur.com/YPTjg3v.jpg Disclaimer - I'm not posting this to endorse the above strategy, I prefer to buy and hold. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||
| Castor Maritime ($CTRM) to buy two LR2 tankers for $27MM. Market Cap jumps $250MM. Posted: 11 Feb 2021 09:48 PM PST That title is worse than it sounds. We need to talk about shipping: For anyone who hasn't looked at a maritime shipping/bulker/tanker company: A) Good choice! B) The value of these companies is almost all assets. This is one of the few places you'll still see companies trade at/below book value. Star Bulker Carriers, for example, has $2.9 billion in ships, $1.5 billion in net equity, and a $1.2 Billion market cap. Frontline has $1.5 Billion in equity, $1.3 billion market cap. That doesn't mean you should go out and buy $SBLK or $FRO. The business is an asset heavy, miserably unprofitable commodity service. Everyone in the shipping industry waits around cutting their teeth until a shipping supercycle hits and they can actually profit. They have extreme sensitivity to interest rates, and extreme sensitivity to economic downturns. You aren't getting $1 for $.90 buying these stocks. You're getting the expected future cashflows from $1 of net merchant ship, which the market ascribes an NPV of >$1. I digress. Castor, as of 9/30, has $30 million in ships. Six 75,000 DWT bulkers, to be exact. A tiny fleet. They've now bought a Capesize and 2 LR2 tankers. Lets call that an extra $80 million. $110MM in ships. Their market cap, as of close, is $880MM. 8x price/assets for merchant ships! WHAT? It's not uncommon for this company's peers to trade at .3x price/assets! That's... a bad investment. Quite possibly the worst investment opportunity I've ever seen. At least most bubbles have some "moonshot" potential; these guys buy boats. Sell. Run. This is the dumbest bubble I've ever seen. TLDR: This is the top, lads. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||
| "The worst stocks are doing the best" Posted: 11 Feb 2021 05:22 AM PST Any thoughts on this? The article states what I'm feeling for quite a while now. As an example, AstraZeneca published a doubling of their 2020 profit, meanwhile the stock's average declines and it hardly moves on the news, as if real profit doesn't matter any more. (I have no stake in AstraZeneca) [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||
| Surge by Disney+ to nearly 95 million subscriptions leads to surprise profit Posted: 11 Feb 2021 02:20 PM PST "Disney+ has exceeded even our highest expectations," Chapek said in a conference call with analysts later, noting it stood at 26.5 million subscribers in the same-quarter a year ago. He also noted spikes in usage for ESPN+ (up 83% to 12.1 million) and Hulu (up 30% to 35.4 million). Disney's Media and Entertainment Distribution, which includes Disney+, brought in $12.66 billion for the quarter, a decline of 5% from the same quarter a year ago before the pandemic swept across the country. The Disney Parks, Experiences and Products unit took in $3.6 billion, down 53% year-over-year as many Disney parks and its cruise line remain closed. The flagship Disneyland Park in Anaheim, Calif., and Disneyland Paris will stay closed in the current quarter, Disney Chief Financial Officer Christine McCarthy said during the analyst call. The sustained strength of Disney+ has impressed Wall Street analysts despite stiffening competition from Apple Inc.'s AAPL Apple TV+, Netflix Inc. NFLX, AT&T Inc.'s T HBO Max, Comcast Corp.'s CMCSA Peacock, Amazon.com Inc.'s AMZN Prime Video, and others. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||
| Posted: 11 Feb 2021 07:23 PM PST To anyone looking for a great play that's been quietly flying under the radar, let me introduce you to one of the best SPACs this year that's barely being talked about. Apex Technologies / AvePoint Inc. In November of 2020 AvePoint, the largest Microsoft 365 Data Management Solutions Provider announced a $2B merger with Apex Technologies. The deal is expected to close this quarter and AvePoint will begin trading under the new ticker AVPT. Why is this one of the most undervalued SPACs right now? 1.) All Star Leadership Both Apex and AvePoint boast great leadership teams. At Apex, Jeff Epstein (lol), serves as the co-CEO and CFO. Jeff has held board/executive positions at companies such as Oracle, Twilio, Nielsen, Booking Holdings among others. The other co-CEO, Brad Koenig has served as the Global Head of Technology Investment Banking at Goldman Sachs for 15+ years and has served clients such as Dell, eBay, Microsoft, SAP, Veritas, Oracle in advisory capacities. Both Jeff and Brad will join the board of AvePoint once the merger goes through. The current CEO of AvePoint Tianyi Jang, who's 23 years in the industry include positions at Deutsche, Lehman Brothers, and Citadel will remain as the CEO. The rest of the executive team boast past positions at companies such as Deloitte, Johnson & Johnson, Verizon, Merril Lynch and many others. 2.) Total Addressable Market We all know how huge cloud computing is and will continue to be through the future. This is no new news. AvePoint estimates their TAM to grow to over $33B by 2022. As a strategic cloud partner of Microsoft and a 5x Global Partner of the Year Recipient, they're very well positioned to grow along side Microsoft and the cloud computing space as a whole. This growth is only being accelerated by the pandemic. https://www.pwc.com/us/en/industries/tmt/library/covid19-cloud-infrastructure.html This partnership also allows a large competitive advantage as AvePoint offers the only full suite of SaaS solutions to migrate, manage, and secure data in Microsoft 365. Within the 7mm cloud users, previously mentioned there's some blockbuster Fortune 500 companies relying on AvePoint's technology everyday. 3.) Financials and Growth Full Year Total Revenue for 2020 closed somewhere between $148M and $151M, up 29% year over Year. Cash, Cash Equivalents, and Short Term Investments total approximately $70M as of December 30, 2020 with a ~14% EBIT margin. The company also remains completely debt-free. With an additional $252mm in cash on its balance sheet from the transaction, there will be plenty of room to grow. Some of the avenues AvePoint plans attacking include; selling more to existing customers, increasing SMB footprint, capturing a larger share of the Microsoft Cloud Customer Base (currently only 3% with no meaningful competition in the space), and expanding target industry focus and international targets. Been holding 200 shares since late November and am shocked this merger isn't getting more attention. In the year of the SPAC, this one stands out as one of the best. I see at as a great simultaneous growth and value play and wanted to share. Cheers. Additional Financials: Main Sources: https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?CIK=1777921&owner=exclude [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||
| $FSR - 60% potential gain $27 PT Morgan Stanley - DD Posted: 11 Feb 2021 07:33 PM PST $FSR is an EV company that engages in researching, developing, and producing next-generation electrically powered vehicles. 5 hours ago, Morgan Stanley set a PT of $27 for $FSR: Since the report, it has risen 8.74% in the after-hours, putting it at $16.79. That's a 60% potential gain at a PT of $27. This stock ran to $23 in November off a $26 pt from Credit Suisse. A couple $15-16 targets sent this into a long accumulation range that its finally ready to break out of. Fisker has failed previously with car companies specifically, so why is it different this time? Henrik Fisker owns patents on solid-state battery tech and teased class-leading range in a call at the Goldman Sachs conference today Magna is their manufacturing partner and owns a 6% stake as part of the deal Besides Morgan Stanley, other analysts and research groups have almost unanimously put $FSK as a "buy" and a price target well above its current price. Other equities research analysts also recently issued research reports about the stock. Citigroup Inc. 3% Minimum Coupon Principal Protected Based Upon Russell initiated coverage on shares of Fisker in a research note on Wednesday, November 25th. They set a "buy" rating and a $26.00 price target on the stock. Smith Barney Citigroup began coverage on shares of Fisker in a research note on Wednesday, November 25th. They issued a "buy" rating and a $26.00 target price on the stock. Wolfe Research began coverage on shares of Fisker in a research note on Wednesday, December 9th. They issued an "underperform" rating and a $16.00 target price on the stock. Vertical Research began coverage on shares of Fisker in a research note on Monday, January 4th. They issued a "buy" rating on the stock. Finally, Raymond James began coverage on shares of Fisker in a research report on Thursday, January 21st. They set a "market perform" rating on the stock. One research analyst has rated the stock with a sell rating, two have assigned a hold rating and five have assigned a buy rating to the company. The company presently has a consensus rating of "Buy" and a consensus price target of $21.00. Do I think it's a great long term hold? No. But the Morgan Stanley valuation alone is a big enough hype to raise the price well above $20 in the short term according to my research. Positions: $FSR 3 contracts $18.5c 3/5 [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||
| Why Intel Will Reap Huge Benefits From Biden Administration Policy - $INTC Posted: 11 Feb 2021 01:32 PM PST The American semiconductor manufacturing industry has been decimated by production moving to Taiwan. Intel has lost market share in the past few years but has made a public commitment to continue manufacturing excellence. Recently they hired a new CEO who starts next week, Pat Gelsinger. The stock surged 7% on the news of his hire. The United States is committed to not bending over and letting foreign companies and government control US chip supply forever. It has already been acknowledged as a mistake and they are trying to reverse the course. Chip shortages in the auto industry have started and are already shutting down production lines in the US. The Biden administration is incentivized to move quickly here. Biden's team is desperately trying to take a tough stance on China since it's a popular policy that has clear benefits to American business. Even Fox news is acknowledging that Biden is trying to prevent unfair trade practices. What better way than to publicly commit to supporting American semiconductor manufacturing? That's where lobbying comes in. Bloomberg reported today that Intel, AMD (bless Lisa Su), and Qualcomm signed a letter to the Biden administration urging policy to bring back manufacturing. An announcement of support and stimulus to the American semiconductor industry would get bipartisan support and boost chip stocks. Intel is the most beaten down of the names and has the manufacturing business that will see a surge when this policy is released. Intel is the great risk-reward play here. ---- SOURCES: See the hyperlinks in the text above to learn more about the need for semiconductor manufacturing within the US and how seriously the government is taking it. TLDR: Intel will be the biggest beneficiary of the Biden administration's protectionist policies to revive domestic chip production and prevent shortages throughout the auto sector. Buy shares or calls to get sufficient exposure. I am long shares. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||
| First North American Publicly traded Bitcoin ETF Approved by Canadian Securities Regulator Posted: 11 Feb 2021 04:49 PM PST The first bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in North America has been given the go-ahead by Canada's financial regulator. According to a decision document on Thursday, the receipt of approval from the Ontario Securities Commission was filed under a Multilateral Instrument passport system in multiple Canadian jurisdictions. Those territories include British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Quebec, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, Newfoundland and Labrador, Northwest Territories, Yukon and Nunavut. This story is developing and will be added to accordingly. Update : WILL TRADE ON TSX TRUSTEE & PM: PurposeInvest CUSTODIAN: CIDEL TRUST, Gemini (SUB-C) BTC INDEX: TRADEBLOCK XBX AUDITOR: EYnews MGT FEES: 1% AVG DAILY NAV Ticket symbol : BTCC [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||
| BNY Mellon to offer bitcoin services, a validation of crypto from a key bank in the financial system Posted: 11 Feb 2021 07:08 AM PST Bank of New York Mellon, the nation's oldest bank, said Thursday that it will begin financing bitcoin and other digital currencies. The custody bank will eventually allow digital currencies to pass through the same financial network it currently uses for more traditional holdings like U.S. Treasury bonds and equities after months of analysis of its prototype digital asset framework. "BNY Mellon is proud to be the first global bank to announce plans to provide an integrated service for digital assets," Roman Regelman, CEO of asset servicing and head of digital at BNY Mellon, said in a press release. "Growing client demand for digital assets, maturity of advanced solutions, and improving regulatory clarity present a tremendous opportunity for us to extend our current service offerings to this emerging field," he added. The BNY Mellon executive added that, pending product analysis and approvals, the bank should begin offering the services to its customers later this year. The Wall Street Journal first reported the bank's cryptocurrency announcement. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||
| Temporary Passive Income: HYSA vs REIT vs ETF vs VTSAX Posted: 11 Feb 2021 07:37 PM PST I am currently starting a new career as a self-employed woodworker. I am struggling to pay the bills, and one of the options I am considering to help cushion the blow is to put the $10,000 in my savings to work so that it could generate enough revenue a month to at least help pay for a small utility bill like my trash bill. First and foremost, I am fully aware that the answer to proper investment will always be to hold the investment for years and allow the gains to compound. However, in my economic situation where for the next year I will temporarily will need to withdraw the gains on a monthly basis to help pay for bills, which investment do you believe would best suit this purpose? HYSA, REIT, ETF, VTSAX, or something else? I understand the risks involved in not just locking it in a savings account. I am willing to take risks to help get ahead financially for the next year, and if I lose money, that's on me. e.g. I would be willing to invest in the slightly riskier option of VTSAX if a HYSA has relatively small yields. As long as I can withdraw the yields without a huge headache, I would consider that. What would you suggest? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||
| Still Bullish on BP short term and here's why: Posted: 11 Feb 2021 07:02 PM PST I posted here a week ago that BP had bottomed out at 3 month resistance levels again and I saw an opportunity to swing trade the stock. Since I entered my trade it hasn't gone down, but since I've been in, I've been seeing clear manipulation holding it down to these levels. Options expire tomorrow too. BP has a bad rep among oil company investors because of their transitioning to green energy by 2030. So many point to Exxon Mobil as being the clear pick for a long term hold if oil is your thing, which is probably true especially with oil being at pre-pandemic highs at the moment, however I'm not long term anything, swing trading is my thing. Oil prices did spike my interest with BP regardless, I also saw BP as the most undervalued major despite recording its first annual loss in a decade, the reporting of which didn't drop it below resistance levels. I started doubting my entry of BP as the stock drifted sideways for most of the week. I had a brief moment of hope on Monday that I'd get a quick flip and an early exit when the stock spiked 6% on news of BP securing offshore wind deals, but I wanted more and since then it was pushed back down and consolidated. Exxon Mobil had an ex dividend on the 8th of feb and up to ex dividend, starting on the 29th of Jan it had a massive run up. BP ex dividend is on the 18th of Feb and I'm expecting a similar run up. Expecting the price to rise next week as the shorts close for Ex Divi day. If they don't then they'll have to foot the Divi bill to shareholders. I also expect some retail dividend flippers to hop onboard during the run up pushing prices up further. I'll be closing my position on the 18th and looking for a new opportunity. None of this is financial advice obviously. Let me know what you guys think [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||
| NAT DD, Why I'm Invested long term Posted: 11 Feb 2021 03:04 PM PST Hey everyone. This is my bullish stance on NAT, do your own DD of course if you actually like the stock. At current price it is possible to see a 100% return within the next year. Holding is 1,900 shares at $3.32 while picking up more when I am able. What do they do you ask? Well they ship crude oil across the globe. They have one of the largest fleets out there with 23 Suezmax crude oil tankers and they are building two more to bring it to 25. The ships will be built by Samsung Heavy Industries and are set for delivery in 2022 While oil itself is slowly getting replaced by greener energies, this will not happen any time soon. Countries around the world, both developed and developing rely heavily on oil for the obvious gasoline as well as the millions of other goods made from oil. Even when electric cars become more mainstream it will take a while before the majority of people can afford them They were able to weather the economic downturn very well and strengthened their capital structure by reducing their net debt by 22.40% from $350m to $272m during the first nine months of 2020. Even during some of the toughest times they were able to bring their debt down and still post strong revenue. They have also attracted the attention of larger institutions as well. And yeah I do see this as great news.
Hopefully it was a decent read. As I said I am pretty bullish on this and will accept my gains/losses as they come. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||
| Playboy is going public, and CEO says potential ‘is endless’ Posted: 11 Feb 2021 01:13 PM PST Playboy is returning to the stock market Thursday after 10 years as a privately held company, but the iconic brand looks far different than it did when it left in 2011. Founder Hugh Hefner died in 2017, the company stopped printing its famous men's magazine last year and current CEO Ben Kohn has repositioned the firm as a consumer-products company rather than a publishing business. "We're not trying to be a magazine company. That doesn't make sense to me," Kohn, who will be one of the firm's largest shareholders, told Seeking Alpha in an exclusive interview. "What makes sense to me is being the lifestyle platform that this business originally was." Playboy recently agreed to merge with special purpose acquisition company Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp. (MCAC) in a SPAC deal that values the company at about $381 million. The stock will begin trading Thursday on the Nasdaq under the ticker "PLBY." MCAC raised some $50M through an initial public offering in June, and its shares rose more than 30% since the IPO to close Wednesday at $13.34 (see chart below). As for Playboy, the firm still offers articles, adult pictorials and videos via Playboy.com, but Kohn said consumers also buy $3 billion a year of Playboy-branded products that the firm sells on its own or through licensees. He said that even in Playboy's heyday as a men's magazine, the company owned or licensed consumer businesses that ran the gamut from casinos to cufflinks that featured its iconic rabbit logo. Kohn, who helped that Playboy private in 2011, said that when he first met the company's legendary founder, "Hef said to me: 'I might not be the best editor or the best publisher, but I am goddamn the best marketer.' I think that's what we've brought back to the company, which is really [to be] an aspirational lifestyle business." Despite the print magazine's demise, 68-year-old Playboy remains one of the world's best-known brands, with 97% of people around the globe recognizing the rabbit logo. Some 90% of customers are under 40, and women make up more than 40% of e-commerce sales. Playboy-branded products sold online range from underwear to calendars to sex toys. Offline, a Chinese company operates more than 2,500 brick-and-mortar Playboy clothing stores in the Asian nation, while a partnership with Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ:CZR) runs the Playboy Club London casino. The revamped Playboy operates in four verticals: Sexual Wellness. This includes products like Playboy condoms and sex aids. The company also recently signed a $25M deal to buy Lovers, a chain of 41 U.S. brick-and-mortar "sexual-wellness" shops. Style and Apparel. The Playboy name is one of China's top men's fashion brands, sold through brick-and-mortar stores and more than 1,000 e-commerce sites. Gaming/Lifestyle. Beyond its London casino, Playboy has partnerships with online-gambling software companies Microgaming and Scientific Games Corp. (NASDAQ:SGMS). The company is also working on online sports gambling, while in the lifestyles arena, Playboy sells furniture via Wayfair (NYSE:W). Beauty and Grooming. Kohn said Playboy "has been an arbiter of beauty for 68 years," and currently sells or is developing perfumes, skincare products and cosmetics. The CEO said that simply by tapping into the growing direct-to-consumer trend, the company can get a bigger share of the existing $3B revenue pie for Playboy-branded products while growing sales organically. "We can drive the lifetime value of our consumers up because we can offer them multiple different products, whereas a licensee can only offer them one product," he said. Playboy recently released earnings for 2020's third quarter and first nine months that showed big year-over-year gains. For instance, the company reported that net revenues rose 86% year on year in the third quarter to $35M, allowing the Playboy to turn a $1.3M profit vs. a $3.4M loss during the same 2019 period. And for 2021, the company is guiding to more than $160M in revenues and $40M of EBITDA. Kohn said that when you add in more than $100M in working capital from the SPAC transaction and $180M of prior years' carried-forward losses that will cut taxes, he sees big opportunities for growth ahead. "The runway that's in front of us is really endless," he said. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||
| Posted: 11 Feb 2021 01:52 PM PST I am interested in hearing about what the process of holding stocks in companies going through a merger looks like. Acquiring Company Holdings: What happens to the stocks you own in the acquiring company when the merger goes through? How does the price of the targeted company's stock at the time of merging affect the movement of the acquiring company's stock post-merger? Targeted Company Holdings: What happens to the shares held in the target company? Do you have the choice of converting your stock to the acquiring company stock, or is that dictated in the merger process? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||
| [Yahoo Finance] Uber's Plan for a Profitable 2021 Requires Questionable Accounting Posted: 11 Feb 2021 07:54 PM PST https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ubers-plan-profitable-2021-requires-210146426.html Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE:UBER) reported earnings for the fourth quarter on Feb. 10. Despite posting another big loss, as the market expected, the ridesharing leader promised investors that profitability is at last on the horizon. Indeed, Uber claims to still be on track to achieve profitability in 2021 on an adjusted basis. Adjusting to losses When public companies report earnings, they are required to use an accounting standard known as generally accepted accounting principles, or GAAP. GAAP accounting allows analysts and investors to evaluate corporate performance across a range of businesses and industries with a common set of assumptions and definitions. On a GAAP basis, Uber lost $968 million in the fourth quarter, which is largely in keeping with its performance in recent quarters. Uber, however, does not confine itself to merely reporting GAAP earnings. Like many other companies, Uber also likes to include a number of non-GAAP metrics, such as adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. Such adjustments can, according to writer and analyst Will Kenton, make it more accurate measure of financial performance than ordinary Ebitda: "The adjusted Ebitda measurement removes non-recurring, irregular and one-time items that may distort Ebitda...Standardizing Ebitda by removing anomalies means the resulting adjusted or normalized Ebitda is more accurately and easily comparable to the Ebitda of other companies, and to the Ebitda of a company's industry as a whole." With an adjusted Ebitda loss of $454 million in the fourth quarter, less than half the loss it booked on a GAAP basis, it is easy to see why Uber has been a fan of the metric since before it went public. Promised profits encourage analysts Even on an adjusted basis, Uber has continued to post steep losses, but that may soon change. Company management has repeatedly promised that positive earnings are near at hand. This prospect has been met with an enthusiastic response from Wall Street, garnering a number of analyst upgrades ahead of its latest earnings print. Despite the challenges presented by the economic and social disruptions of 2020, Uber is still on track to achieve positive adjusted Ebitda in 2021, according to Chief Financial Officer Nelson Chai. In the company's Feb. 10 earnings press release, Chai reiterated the goal of turning the corner on profitability this year, if only on an adjusted basis: "In Q4 we continued to deliver improving Adjusted Ebitda performance, up $171 million quarter-over-quarter, and remain well on track to achieving our profitability goals in 2021." Uber's continued confidence appears to have kept most analysts onboard in spite of a somewhat lacklustre overall result in the fourth quarter. Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) analyst Brian Nowak, for example, declared in his post-earnings update that Uber's "mixed" financial results failed to undermine his confidence in the company's ability to scale its operations profitably. When a profit is not a profit While creative Ebitda adjustments are far from uncommon in corporate finance these days, Uber's approach has raised several eyebrows. The ridesharing company has actually become somewhat notorious among finance sleuths for its aggressive accounting practices. Indeed, as Jordan S. Terry of Stone Street Advisors observed on Feb.11, Uber has a track record of rather "breathtaking levels of audacity" on that front. Of key importance is Uber's exclusion of stock-based compensation from its adjusted Ebitda calculation. While SBC is technically a non-recurring expense in a corporate accounting sense, it has been standard practice at Uber and shows no sign of stopping. On Feb. 11, stock market analyst Keubiko delivered a particularly withering assessment of Uber's ignoring key expenses: "UBER is going for the gold in the Adjusted Ebitda Olympics. Highly profitable if you ignore the expenses." Uber is effectively "adjusting" a significant portion of its expenses out of existence with, at best, a tenuous justification. As legendary short seller Jim Chanos (Trades, Portfolio) pointed out on Feb. 11, negating the adjustment turns Uber's promised profitability into still more losses: "When UBER says it will be 'profitable' in 2021, that means they will lose $300-400 million in the 4Q." My verdict At its most basic, profitability is a fairly black and white affair. A company either makes a profit or it does not. While the prospect of Uber's near-term profitability may encourage some analysts and investors at first glance, a closer look at how the company intends to calculate that profitability probably ought to give them pause. In my assessment, Uber's reliance on questionable adjusted Ebitda metrics to define its profit trajectory could prove problematic over time. While improving adjusted Ebitda can point the way to eventual profitability, the company will only truly be profitable when it can deliver positive earnings on a GAAP basis. There is little prospect of that happening anytime soon. Disclosure: No positions. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||
| Taking a covered call premium, reinvesting, back into underlying, and repeating Posted: 11 Feb 2021 06:32 PM PST Hypothetical: I buy 10,000 shares of a company's common stock. I then write 100 covered calls, using those shares. I make the strike high, so it's not likely they'll be ITM at expiration. I take the premium I make from selling the calls and I buy more shares. I then sell more calls on the new shares, and I repeat until I run out of money. There are diminishing returns with each iteration, but in one calculation, I found you could do it for about 3 or 4 rounds. Is there a specific name for this? I tried to Google it, but couldn't find much. Is this allowed, or legal? Are there any downsides to this? It seems like all the shares are still covered. I've done the math and in one instance, using some numbers at market close, it could increase the number of shares one could buy by about 30% for the same initial investment. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||
| Potential American firms that can produce semiconductor chips desperately needed to produce EV's Posted: 11 Feb 2021 11:01 AM PST GM, Ford, solar companies, everyone is complaining about a chip shortage. I'm not entirely sure if they are just semiconductors in general or if they are specific to one component like the inverters needed to convert DC to AC. The govt announced it is looking into giving incentives to american companies that can manufacture these components. Anyone aware of US firms worth investing in that could potentially do this? There's also a shortage of semiconductors used to make high end video cards, although im not sure if this is the same thing affecting the EV industry. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||
| DD on Momentus (SRAC) - A Space Infrastructure Company Posted: 11 Feb 2021 06:49 PM PST *Please note this is not financial advice. I am simply sharing my thoughts.
Space Industrialization
I want to start by noting that I think the industrialization and commercialization of space is a sector that is going to see tremendous growth in our lifetime. The current size of the global space economy is expected to grow from an estimated $415 billion to $1.4 trillion by 2030, driving demand for transportation and infrastructure services in space. It is clear to me why Cathie Wood is introducing an ARK Space Exploration ETF, since this will be another booming industry. I'll share a quote from Elon Musk:
"You want to wake up in the morning and think the future is going to be great - and that's what being a spacefaring civilization is all about. It's about believing in the future and thinking that the future will be better than the past. And I can't think of anything more exciting than going out there and being among the stars."
The colonization of Mars is going to be one of mankind's greatest challenges and an objective that I strongly believe is achievable in a few decades. But it's not just Mars, it's the entirety of space that has virtually endless opportunities for growth. NASA, SpaceX, Starlink, Virgin Galactic, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Astra, and many more companies are at the forefront of making this possible. But there is one that really intrigues me: Momentus.
What is Momentus?
"As we continue to develop new technologies and improve the capabilities of our rides, we will continually introduce more services, each contributing to the further industrialization of space. To realize a future where humanity is equipped with all it needs to flourish throughout the solar system, we need to be able to mine, manufacture, build, and generate power in space. Momentus will make this possible." - Momentus
Momentus, founded in 2017, provides infrastructure services necessary to facilitate the inevitable need for space industrialization. Their core service is in-space transportation. What are some of their services?
There is a lot more really cool stuff they are envisioning to do, like equipping vehicles with robotic arms capable of performing proximity maneuvers, docking, and refueling. They also expect that extending the lives of larger spacecrafts, relocating or deorbiting satellites, conducting salvage missions, robotic repairs, etc. will be done in a day's work for their service fleet. Momentus stands apart from other companies because their whole business strategy revolves around space infrastructure services, which is only going to become more and more necessary as the space economy becomes further and further developed. They have a key partnership with a few companies, most notably SpaceX, and many customers such as NASA and Lockheed Martin.
I urge you to take a look at their investor presentation, as there is some seriously cool things they are working on that will make Momentus one of the leading space industrialization companies in the world. The last page includes their financial forecasts, which I am not taking too seriously right now given this is an up and coming sector with massive potential.
What are your thoughts on investing for the future of space industrialization?
Bought into my position today - 115 @ 26.37 [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||
| Perion Network (PERI) Earnings Update Posted: 11 Feb 2021 06:34 PM PST I was in last month, even after this run up it's still grossly undervalued I think. (PERI P/S 2.5x, MGNI 30x, TTD 40x, PUBM 20x) In my opinion the lack of broad coverage by analysts and very conservative management have kept the true value of the company hidden. Here's a reason why management is conservative: • They only expect 10% growth for 2021 (+$32m) • Note that Microsoft deal alone would add +$28m (8%) based on the earnings call. I think this deal is a solid proof of the company's performance, not only Microsoft extended the period (from 3 years to 4 years), they also expanded Perion's service from 6 countries to 30+ countries. • CTV is having $6m revenue last quarter, growing 130% from previous quarter. I wouldn't be surprised if this segment alone would print $12-15m by Q4 2021 (pretty conservative estimate of the 100-150% growth YoY, note from 130% QoQ), or additional $20m for the whole year (+6%) • Display and social advertising revenue increased by 159% YoY ($26m to $68m per quarter). I think the overall advertisement budget would continue to shift to social medias from traditional venues. Even a 10% YoY growth seems very conservative (additional $24m for the whole year, or 7% from total). • Now even with the above conservative assumptions, we're looking at 20% revenue growth. I think it would be easy for the company to achieve higher growth. Keep a lookout on management's forecast, Perion likes to announce before earnings. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||
| RIGL Pharmaceutical sand a critique on my DD/FA Posted: 11 Feb 2021 01:42 PM PST Hey everyone! Thanks in advance for taking the time to read this; I've been eyeing Rigel Pharmaceuticals (ticker: RIGL ) and wondering why Yahoo Finance has it set as a strong buy (1.7 on the recommedation rating). I decided that this would be a good first time time to try some FA and exercise some financial DD. I also have some positions for RIGL that I bought just for shits and gigs (8 shares @ $3.45). Intro:Rigel Pharmaceuticals is a biotechnology company dedicated to discovering, developing and providing novel small molecule drugs that significantly improve the lives of patients with hematologic disorders, cancer and rare immune diseases. They are headquarter in South San Francisco, CA. Products and its uses:Based on their website (https://www.rigel.com/pipeline/) they have 6 products in the pipeline, but they seem to be putting all their efforts on TAVALISSE® (fostamatinib disodium hexahydrate) tablets, which has been designated by the FDA as first-in-class medication. This is important since this drug will have the market cornered for its specific use until 2032 (per their investor relations January 2021 presentation: https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_bef6964e32b3f4ed8a2db9acc82022c3/rigel/db/708/6000/pdf/Rigel+Corporate+Presentation-January+2021.pdf) Fostaminib is the first drug of its kind to manage ITP ( chronic immune thrombocytopenia), but has other uses too (I'm only naming 2 because these are the only ones I could fully understand from their presentation).
My personal insight into this business and investing in pharma: Per Investopedia (https://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/051316/industry-handbook-pharma-industry.asp), any sort of analysis on any pharmaceutical company needs to rely heavily on any readily available info regarding the drugs they have in their design pipeline. And despite Tavalisse being designated as a first-in-class, you also need to be wary of up and coming innovator companies who are looking at blockbuster drugs and their manufacturers, and ultimately letting them pave the way so that said innovator can just follow in their footsteps and bring a better drug to market. This includes
Looking at some hard financial numbers (pulled from Yahoo finance) Sales/Revenue TTM $102,425,000.00 12/31/2020 $61,700,000.00 12/31/2019 $59,288,000.00 12/31/2018 $44,509,000.00 12/31/2017 $4,484,000.00 Operating income TTM $(29,686,000.00) 12/31/2019 $(69,091,000.00) 12/31/2018 $(72,683,000.00) 12/31/2017 $(79,616,000.00) Operating Margin TTM -29% 12/31/2019 -117% 12/31/2018 -163% 12/31/2017 -1776% Net income TTM $(28,053,000.00) 12/31/2019 $(66,894,000.00) 12/31/2018 $(70,480,000.00) 12/31/2017 $(77,992,000.00) Free cash flow TTM $(45,719,000.00) 12/31/2019 $(42,965,000.00) 12/31/2018 $(59,932,000.00) 12/31/2017 $(77,721,000.00) So in other words, they're getting better at what they do and soon, they won't have to operate at a loss, assuming all goes well with Tavalisse/Fostaminib. They did recently get granted some money by the DoD to fast track the phase 3 clinical trials for Covid19 treatments. (so this is wear my FA gets funky). Based on some FA articles I read, this is where we can get into the meat and potatoes of evaluating the price of a company. First, I determine how much net cash the company has based on the difference between the current amount of cash/cash equivalents/ST investments they have and their total debt. September 2020 cash/cash equivalents/ST investments: $72.8 millionSeptember 2020 debt: $41.1 million Net cash = $31.70 million Next up: assume the amount of money the company will make given a determined (or maybe even arbitrary) rate of return that would make you feel comfortable investing in them. For me, I used the discounted cash flow model and weighted average cost of capital rate to quantify this assumption. I also assumed that their net cash would increase by 2 million every year. So, I modeled out the cash flow by using the discounted cash flow function on excel; I used 10.53% as the hurdle rate (or WACC) via gurufocus.com (https://www.gurufocus.com/term/ROIC/NAS:RIGL/ROIC/Rigel%2BPharmaceuticals%2BInc) and made an assumption that a competitor would be coming in by 2026 with their own product (Note - I also know about the terminal value concept, but I didn't have the stomach to go through the formula derviation at this point in my FA, so I assumed that 2026 would be the end of Rigel's exclusivity on this treatment).
So the sum of the cash flows, inlcuding the net cash, is around $241.3 million. Again, based on my quantified assumptions on how much money this company will make, I will now determine how much I should be willing to pay via a share price. As of February 2021, there are 168,980,000 outstanding shares of this company. So dividing the sum of cash flows by the # of outstanding shares landed me on $1.43 per share, which is vastly underpriced compared to what it's trading at. SO! Despite my the errors known (application of the DCF model) and unknown (I didn't look at any potential sources of competition), this share price still makes sense to me because this company only has 1 major product in the pipeline that may (or may not) even work out, despite the DoD covid19 grant. Additionally - a drug getting the first-in-class designation isn't necessarily a good sign if you consider cases where blockbuster drugs were eventually overtaken by a better alternative (Viagra to Cialis, for example). So if there are any investors at this point that want to point out where I'm lacking in this FA and what I'm missing, I welcome any and all feedback!! TLDR: I decided that RIGL is currently overvalued and is not even worth the long hold. Disclaimer: I am not a qualified financial advisor and I won't be held responsible for any errors in this post, for which I'm sure there are plenty of!! I just want to see where I can improve my FA. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||
| Financial bubble and how to make money from it Posted: 12 Feb 2021 03:37 AM PST I am making money using Warren Buffett's lesson of how bubble forms, I used to buy stocks that were fundamentally good at rock bottom price and wait for the speculation forces to join, and that strategy really works however I often sold it too soon, I should have made more money 😁. I think this strategy can be applied to different asset classes , because bubbles can be formed in many markets like the financial market, housing market , commodities market even with crypto markets and so on... You have to watch the clip to understand how bubbles form and take advantage of that process. Hope you make some serious money with it. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||
| Why i’m uncertain about Bitcoin Posted: 11 Feb 2021 03:19 PM PST As Bitcoin continues to surge and more big money is thrown at it, the more questions I have sitting on the sidelines. The main question centres around this idea of crypto being a commodity - an asset described as digital gold. Yet while Gold is a material object which has been a store of value/currency for millennia, crypto is an idea hinged on being "the next currency". So my question is this: how is Bitcoin likely to replace FIAT currency when the underlying asset IS FIAT currency? In other words, if one day the dollar - for example - collapses, then so will Bitcoin..right? In times of hyperinflation, surely the more worthless Bitcoin becomes? Am I missing something here.. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||
| Phase I pharmaceutical and biotechnology bubble Posted: 11 Feb 2021 11:52 AM PST I am one of those who think that a very important bubble is coming in the pharmaceutical and biotech companies. This so-called bubble has already been started by the oracle Warren Buffet investing for the first time in his history in companies in these sectors. As happened in the year 2000 (coinciding with my first years in the market) the expectation promises prices never seen before. In those years it was normal to see all technology stocks above $100 a share. It was what was called the technology bubble. Now the first phase of the biotech and pharmaceutical bubble is complete. Why? Because you can no longer find any stock in that sector below $1 a share. What is the next phase? The next phase you will see that there is no longer any stock in that sector below $5 per share with a high inflow of institutional investors. We will talk about this in my next post about this. [link] [comments]  |
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