Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing |
- Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.
- Propane is the new toilet paper and you can trade it with $SPH
- Why is APPL stock falling after a blowout quarter?
- A rough analysis on Sony's
- Did many 1980's stock brokers eventually go broke?
- In your opinion, what kind of information/data cannot be missing from a Stock Portfolio Spreadsheet?
- An explanation of why @RobinhoodApp non-nefariously restricted trading
- Tons of COVID vaccine supply coming by summer - Michael Yee
- Do you think J&J will see a mass exodus from positions today? Vaccine is less effective in trials - 66-72%
- The market is booming because we are spending better
- Anyone investing ADI (analog devices) here?
- A long case for Regeneron (REGN )
- Why is AFL so undervalued?
- Why is IPOE trading at such a discount considering the SoFi merger?
- Energy Transfer. Am I missing something?
- Razor worth investing?
| Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Posted: 30 Jan 2021 02:00 AM PST If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our side bar also has useful resources. Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  |
| Propane is the new toilet paper and you can trade it with $SPH Posted: 29 Jan 2021 08:41 AM PST Hey everyone. Everyone's got their eyes on meme stocks, but I have been working on this long thesis for a while and I wanted to share it as this company's earnings are on Feb 4. With that being said: Tl;dr: Propane demand is at a multi-year high due to outdoor dining and hoarding. Suburban Propane Partners ($SPH) represents a massive opportunity as the stock price has stayed flat among the rapid hike in demand. This is a sleepy company and Wall Street has overlooked these developments. The company reports earnings on Feb 4 before market open. I believe call options represent the best risk/reward for this overlooked stock. Disclosure: I am bullish on SPH and hold a large position in call options. This trade thesis is for entertainment purposes only! I am not an investment advisor. Please do your own research and seek professional investment advice for your portfolio. None of the following statements should be interpreted as financial advice or investment recommendations. In August of 2020, I released a document outlining a propane consumption trend, following the outbreak of COVID-19 in the U.S as well as the record natural disasters in 2020. I highlighted Suburban Propane Partners as the most effective trade in the space. I bought call options and sold several months later for 16x my original investment, moving on to new trading opportunities. Last time I released research on this trade, a lot of people requested more detailed information on what specific trades I made. I hold no shares, however, I've included the six options contracts that I am purchasing. I am playing the February and May earnings reports. Please do not follow my trades. Again, do your own research. I am not a financial advisor and this is not financial advice! Last Quarter's Earnings $17.50 Calls for Feb. 19th $20 Calls for Feb. 19th* This Quarter's Earnings $17.5 Calls for May 21st $20 Calls for May 21st $22.5 Calls for May 21st $25 Calls for May 21st This stock has a low float and low daily volumes which influenced my decision to play this with calls. Due to COVID, outdoor dining has caused an explosive demand for propane patio heaters and fire pits, which are still backordered with many retailers for the next month and have been extremely difficult to get since September. This has created a panic in the propane market and has many businesses and home owners desperately attempting to buy and store as much propane as they can. After experiencing shortages of toilet paper, hand sanitizer, masks, meat, and other goods last year, it appears that consumers are afraid of going without heat this winter. This is adding to the panic and creating a self-fulfilling prophecy, as a normal supply of propane meets an abnormally high demand. Here we can see that propane prices ramped up this winter, but Suburban's share price has stayed put around $15.00. Residential consumers in a number of areas have been experiencing a propane shortage, even when their tanks are on an auto-refill schedule with their distributor. As a result, complaints are skyrocketing and in some states legislators have even been forced to get involved. However, this crisis is only being reported on by local and regional news outlets. The mainstream media is ignoring this crisis in the propane market. They are most likely trying to avoid another hoarding situation, like the toilet paper, hand sanitizer, and mask crises last year, by keeping the shortage as quiet as possible. As a result, this crisis is currently flying under Wall Street's radar. I believe that will change when SPH reports earnings on Feb 4th. Let's take a quick look at the facts. Wall Street projects earnings for SPH will be 14% lower than the same quarter last year and the stock price is 33% lower than the same time in January 2020. However, Suburban Propane has beat analyst projections in both of the last two quarters. The next two earnings reports are usually the best two quarters because of the cold weather. However, I believe the outdoor dining trend has created an unusually large demand for commercial propane this year, which is fueling the panic causing a shortage, so these two winter quarters could do exceptionally well. Wall Street analysts place the fair value of the stock at $19.33, which is 21% above the current stock price of $15.00. All the social data I have collected indicates consumers are buying propane at record levels. Earnings for the months of October-December will be released on Feb 4th. Based on my research, I am expecting earnings to outperform Wall Street's projections for the 3rd time in the last year. If earnings merely equal last year's results for this same quarter, they will beat projections by 14%! But, all signs are pointing to a much stronger propane market than last year (just look at the price of propane), so I am expecting earnings to beat projections by much more than 14%. Furthermore, I see no signs of these trends changing any time soon. I am predicting the price will return to the 2020 price levels in the mid $20's range, by or before May 2021. I am ALL IN on call options for February and May! Suburban Propane is rapidly becoming the market leader in clean propane. While propane is the cleanest fossil fuel, it does still produce some emissions. However, a chemical called rDME can reduce propane emissions to almost nothing because rDME actually has a net negative carbon footprint! Last fall, Suburban Propane purchased a 39% stake in Oberon Fuels, which is a large producer of rDME. In light of the clean energy agenda of the new administration, I believe this is a hugely significant development for SPH that will position it as perhaps the only fossil fuel company with a clean energy focus. In addition, on January 26th, Suburban Propane registered a new logo with the US Patent Office, using a green leaf instead of their former red logo. Along with the slogan "Go green with Suburban Propane." Clearly, this is one fossil fuel company that takes the clean energy agenda very seriously. I believe this bodes well for SPH over the next few years. As you will see from the samples below, I have surfaced quite a bit of chatter from various social sites, proving there is a very real nationwide shortage of propane. Over the past five years, google searches for propane have been in a steady uptrend, but COVID has rapidly accelerated this trend and certain propane related search terms are showing extremely high search volume. Google Trends "propane near me" Google Trends "suburban propane" Google Trends "propane supply" Tweets referencing propane shortages and more (see the notion document for more) I could go on and on (seriously), but if you are interested please check out the full trade thesis below which includes all of the sources and more evidence related to the propane shortage happening today. Please ask questions and let me know what you all think, it helps everyone build a better thesis. The full thesis and sources: https://www.notion.so/Propane-Is-The-New-Toilet-Paper-caf185ada9fe4199a08f610a1be68238 [link] [comments]  |
| Why is APPL stock falling after a blowout quarter? Posted: 29 Jan 2021 10:23 AM PST
So basically, they killed it and yet the stock is going down....can someone explain this to me? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 29 Jan 2021 12:43 PM PST *Disclaimer I am not smart and my opinion is trash Sony is the most undervalued company on this planet. Sony is an 800lb gorilla sitting on multiple industries. Sony Music, Sony Studios, Sony Pictures, Playstation, Sony Electronics etc. It is impossible to enter any Entertainment industry without finding Sony staring back. In the Age of Media Sony is destined to reign supreme. THE FUTURE IS BRIGHT. - Sony has essentially won the console wars, demand for the playstation 5 is rabid and unstoppable, held back by only supply issues. Once that gets resolved $SNE will have essentially a monopoly on home consoles. Microsoft doesn't even come close to amount of sales in the home space. - There is no Sony Car, that would be stupid. The future of cars is entertainment vehicles filled with screens. Sony will be one of the most essential car suppliers in the future. They have decades in the electronics space, cameras, sensors, displays, media modules, speakers. If $BB is the bread of the auto space, $SNE will be the butter. -In the worst case scenario, $SNE has a working EV platform that looks damn sexy that any small car company can license/purchase/use/share. Sony has begun testing them on roads. - SNE won't enter the streaming space as another shitty streaming app. That is smart, SNE can focus on licensing and production their core strength. Why waste time and money on something saturated with competitors and users are unwilling to switch. - The gold rush may have been filled with miners looking for gold, but the winners were the suppliers and merchants. This is the $SNE way. Let the fools look for gold, *In millions of yen
Tl;dr Key points:
updated [link] [comments]  |
| Did many 1980's stock brokers eventually go broke? Posted: 29 Jan 2021 02:37 PM PST 30-40 years later where are they now? Management, retired, rehab? I recall reading book Liars Poker where author claimed many were glorified gambling addicts. Oddly, or accurately I'm listening to Billboard Top 100 of 1985 which stemmed the 80's-esque question. Surface level corporate rock. [link] [comments]  |
| In your opinion, what kind of information/data cannot be missing from a Stock Portfolio Spreadsheet? Posted: 29 Jan 2021 08:29 PM PST Also, which ones would you say are not essential, but are interesting to have easily available? I personally think that some of the most important information are: Current Price of a position/portfolio - While price might not be important to some long term investors, especially when they use DCA strategies, I think it's nice to have a readied picture of how much you have available, if for any reason you were forced to liquidate your positions immediately. It could help in choosing which assets to liquidate and/or not liquidate more than you really need. Acquisition Price (and Average Cost in case of partial sales) - I think this one is very important for Tax Returns. For investors who only make total sales, when they do, it might be simple, but when you do partial sales you need to keep a close eye on the change in your supply, and how it affecs the weight of the next purchase in the Average Cost. At least where I live, that is how Average Price for Taxes is calculated. Portfolio Composition - I believe proper diversification requires you to keep track of your Portfolio composition as the prices change. It also helps to keep the weight of any risky investments in control; without this control you could end up pouring more in an asset, in relation to your total equity, than you think you are; i.e thinking that you are putting 2.5% of your Stock Money into a risky investment when it's actually 10%, because you did't keep track of how much you have invested (and that ties into current price of the portfolio) A tab with details for all purchases and sales (profit, prices, fees, dates, etc..) so you won't have to search through your papers for them later on if/when you have to. Some stuff i find interesting to have: Yearly Results for the companies you have stocks in, so you can easily check them when the next results come and compare them. Then, have their tickers colored differently so you remember which companies are doing great/well, which ones should be watched more closely/frequently, and which ones you are considering leaving. [link] [comments]  |
| An explanation of why @RobinhoodApp non-nefariously restricted trading Posted: 29 Jan 2021 05:57 AM PST [update: here's another way to start to understand this situation if what's written below is too dense This explanation is from Silent Cal @KralcTrebor https://twitter.com/KralcTrebor/status/1354952686165225478 Ok - here's my best explanation of why @RobinhoodApp restricted trading in the short-squeeze stocks. Spoiler: the story isn't the Ken Griffen called Janet Yellen who instructed DTCC to raise margin on Robinhood to force them to shut down the speculative buying. Here goes ... Robinhood (RH) is a broker. They don't execute stock orders themselves. They sign up customers, route their orders to executing brokers, and keep track of who owns what. RH is also its own clearing broker, so they directly settle and custody their clients' securities. Yes, RH is paid by Citadel to handle executing some of its order flow. This isn't as nefarious as it sounds - Citadel Equity Securities is paying to execute retail orders because they aren't pernicious (like having 500x the size behind them). RH customers buy and sell stocks. Those trades don't settle (settle = closing, the exchange of cash for security) until T+2, two days later. Depending on the net of buys/sells, RH is on the hook to pay or recieve that net cash. That's credit risk. NSCC is the entity that takes that credit risk. It matches up the net buyers and sellers, post-trade, and handles the exchange of cash for security. To mitigate the credit risk that one of the clearing brokers fails, they demand the brokers post a clearing deposit with them. The NSCC is required to do this by SEC rule, tracing to Dodd-Frank. Here's the details: https://sec.gov/rules/sro/nscc-an/2018/34-82631.pdf Everyone posts, and if a broker fails, then NSCC takes any losses out of that broker's deposit, then some from NSCC, then from everyone else (the other brokers). This is a post-crisis idea encoded in Dodd-Frank that making everyone post collateral reduces the credit risk and systemic risk and such. So how does the NSCC clearing deposit get calculated? It's basically Deposit = min( 99% 2d VaR + Gap Risk Measure, Deposit Floor Calc) + Mark-to-Market ... math and jargon! Let's use an example. Say Fidelity has clients who bought 2bn of stock and sold 1.5bn of stocks. First, net down buy/sell between customers in the same stock. Say that leaves 1bn buy and 0.5bn sell. Run some math to answer "that won't move more than X with 99% odds in the next 2 days." Let's say that's 3% of the net, so 3% * (1bn-0.5bn) = 0.15bn = 15m. That the 99% 2d VaR. Next, we ask "is any one stock net more than 30% of the net buy/sell" ... and if it is, then we take 10% of that amount and add it as the Gap Risk Measure. So if Fidelity customers bought 200m IBM, then add 20m to that 15m. That's Gap Risk Measure. Deposit Floor Calc is some thing that looks at the 1bn buy and the 0.5bn sell and does a small calc and adds them, so that if the first calc (99% 2d VaR + Gap Risk Measure) is small, then this floor will keep the overall from being tiny. Then, last, you add Mark-to-Market. Basically if your customers bought IBM at 140/shr and it goes to 110/shr before it settles for cash at 140/shr, the NSCC has 30/shr of credit exposure to the clearing broker and that amount gets added to the required collateral posted to NSCC. There are some other items, but that's the basic idea - full details are here: https://dtcc.com/-/media/Files/Downloads/legal/policy-and-compliance/NSCC_Disclosure_Framework.pdf The NSCC sets the framework, but it is spelled out in Dodd-Frank that they have to do so by law. These deposits are held in the Clearing Fund at the NSCC. Financials are here: https://dtcc.com/legal/financial-statements They had 10.5bn in the Clearing Fund as of Sep 30, 2020. This is the regime post-Dodd-Frank. NSCC updated it's rules in 2018 to improve the VaR calc and to add the Gap Risk Measure. How did this impact Robinhood? Well, let's say Robinhood had $20bn of client assets starting 2021. Those customers used to trade $1bn/d say. What is the context for Clearing Deposit? Say 2 days it's a little unbalanced and it's 1.2bn buy and 0.8bn sell. Ok, that's probably around 12m, maybe 20m deposit. If they take in $600m of new deposits and say $400m wants to buy GME. Plus of their $20bn existing, say there is $400m of GME buys over the past 2d. Then the picture could look like 2.0bn buys and 1.0bn sells, which might normally be 30m deposit. But volatility went up. A bit. Now 99% 2d VaR is much higher. It should be 20x higher for their net portfolio, but the formula will smooth it out some. Maybe it's ~4x bigger. So just on VaR, they have to post 120m now. That they should have. The Gap Risk Measure is what kills them. If GME is over 30% of their net unsettled portfolio, then they are required to post 10% of all the GME buys. So if that's 800m, they have to post another 80m. And there is no limit to it. As long as their clients are up P&L, the mark-to-market covers it. But if RH takes in 500m of new money and 300m buys GME, then at minimum they are looking at posting 30m+ from just that exposure at NSCC. They cannot use client money - RH has to use their own resources to post. And if GME stock drops, RH has to post the loss pre-settlement. This would also explain why RH drew its credit lines and said vague things about clearing requirements. Robinhood Is Said to Draw on Bank Credit Lines Amid Tumult https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-28/robinhood-is-said-to-draw-on-credit-lines-from-banks-amid-tumult (alternative URL: https://archive.is/sLhsm) The policy goal here is to avoid the central plumbing entities from taking credit risk. In reality, such regulations raise costs and create barriers to entry. It raises profits for entities like DTCC (which owns NSCC and is itself owned by Wall St) RH offered to open up stock market investing more broadly. They succeeded, clearly. But the regulations didn't change - there are still pro-Wall St, pro-incumbent rules and capital requirements. It's one of the most highly regulated industries in our nation. So @aoc is right to ask how it can be that Robinhood stopped its clients from buying certain securities. And what she'll find is that the reason is that Dodd-Frank requires brokers like RH to post collateral to cover their clients' trading risk pre-settlement. And it isn't the Fed or SEC who sets the rules. It's the Wall St owned central clearing entity itself, DTCC, that makes its own rules. So when the retail masses decided to squeeze the short-sellers, in the middle of crushing them, it was govt regulations which tripped them up. [link] [comments]  |
| Tons of COVID vaccine supply coming by summer - Michael Yee Posted: 29 Jan 2021 03:16 PM PST Micheal Yee is a Jefferies biotech analyst. In the interview he calls for $PFE and $MRNA to have a boom by Q3, and are expected to deliver 500-600 million vaccine doses. He also thinks that by then, the states will have smoothed out the logistics of deploying the vaccine to the population. My analysis is to pay attention to these companies. $PFE, $MRNA, $AZN, $TMO, $UPS, and $FDX. Thermo-Fisher is a science equipment company, that produces deep freezers, which are needed for the Pfizer vaccine. Moderna, Pfizer, and Astrozeneca, seem to be solid choices while we are in this COVID economy. UPS and FedEx also seem like the correct stocks for the logistics portion of the vaccine rollout. Disclaimer: Not financial advice. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 29 Jan 2021 06:15 AM PST Honestly, I wondered if this would happen and optimistically dismissed my concerns. The timing of Biden announcing the purchase of additional doses of the existing vaccine had less of an impact than I expected, so I stayed in. Premarket - as of approx 9:10am $162.49 -6.67 -3.94% Ouch [link] [comments]  |
| The market is booming because we are spending better Posted: 29 Jan 2021 01:46 PM PST Many people are claiming that the current market is crazy or overvalued. But historically the stock market is a leading indicator, and our first assumption should be that that is what's happening right now. Our first thought should be that the market is predicting years of high economic growth just around the corner. I'm hear to discuss possible reasons for upcoming high economic growth, despite the pandemic and high unemployment. Of course maybe there will just be a ton of inflation from all the stimulus and bailouts last year. Maybe the massive death count will result in inheritances that are quickly spent by the younger generation. Or maybe this other idea has merit: Maybe much of America's spending created little future value, and that spending was most impacted by the lockdown. Instead of traveling, going to concerts, and eating out, people are doing things like remodeling their home offices and creating durable long term wealth. Unemployed are re-educating and gaining skills that will better grow the future economy. Maybe the fun and rewarding things we lost were not the best way to create growth, and where the spending has moved is much better long term. Thoughts? [link] [comments]  |
| Anyone investing ADI (analog devices) here? Posted: 29 Jan 2021 08:15 PM PST Recently come across their presentation on silicon based DNA synthesis at CES 2021 and got interested. They have good financial and IMO they have huge growth potential. They do all sorts of signal processing, turning analog world into digital data, 5G, integrated circuits, automation. I can find so little information about the company and interest in forums like this. Anyone invested or know more about the company? I am seriously considering about investing and want to hear about the street sentiments. Any thoughts? [link] [comments]  |
| A long case for Regeneron (REGN ) Posted: 29 Jan 2021 02:56 PM PST I feel like REGN is currently undervalued with good upside potential. Reasons:
Earnings for REGN out Friday Feb 5th. Rumors of FDA clinical trial decisions on 2 drugs by March. I welcome any feedback/perspectives. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 29 Jan 2021 09:18 AM PST I stumbled upon AFL while looking for an undervalued dividend payer that has some potential growth. I get insurance companies don't have explosive growth but AFL is trading at a 7-8 PE. I personally thing that's insane especially when the 5 year average for the company is a 15 PE. They only payout about 23-25% of earnings and their yield at the moment is in the high 2%. Furthermore, they have beaten earnings constantly and keep a modest revenue increase while their EPS grew 58% when compared to the last TTM. When it comes to growth they are steadily increasing clientele in places like Japan to compensate for the competition in the states. Therefore I ask again, am I brain dead and missed something or is this a genuinely undervalued play? [link] [comments]  |
| Why is IPOE trading at such a discount considering the SoFi merger? Posted: 29 Jan 2021 07:12 AM PST With the merger of SoFi planned for sometime in Q1, why hasn't the valuation of IPOE neared anywhere close to the $8B~ valuation? Are investors simply anticipating that it's not actually going to happen? I've read approx $2B will be used to pay down debt, but even if we look at IPOE at a $6B valuation it's quite a ways off still. [link] [comments]  |
| Energy Transfer. Am I missing something? Posted: 29 Jan 2021 01:07 PM PST Yielding nearly 10% in dividends with a PE ratio of 6.5. I get that they have high debt, and the share price was punished due to historic empire building, but it seems they are now paying down debt, and not expanding for the sake of expanding. Unless I'm missing something, owners equity will increase as debt reduces, interest payments will reduce thereby increasing earnings, and the share price could double from here. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 29 Jan 2021 05:04 AM PST Hello all, I wanted to get some opinions on Razer stock as a medium/long term investment. I'm still relatively new to the stock investment topic, but nonetheless I quickly gained interest in Razer stock. Obviously a bit of personal connection plays into this interest, but also given the plans and projections for the coming years, I would imagine there is potential here. With the gaming industry continuing to grow and ever greater recognition of e-sports itself, Razer is already in this space as a huge player in gaming. In addition to that, they are trying to become a fin tech in their territory and provide people with offerings in the payment sector as well. What are ur thoughts on that? [link] [comments]  |
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