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    Monday, December 28, 2020

    Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion Monday - Dec 28, 2020

    Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion Monday - Dec 28, 2020


    r/Stocks Daily Discussion Monday - Dec 28, 2020

    Posted: 28 Dec 2020 12:08 AM PST

    These daily discussions run from Monday to Friday including during our themed posts.

    Some helpful links:

    If you have a basic question, for example "what is EPS," then google "investopedia EPS" and click the investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned.

    Please discuss your portfolios in the Rate My Portfolio sticky..

    See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.

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    Tesla to start operations in India next year - report

    Posted: 28 Dec 2020 06:58 AM PST

    https://www.reuters.com/article/tesla-india/tesla-to-start-operations-in-india-next-year-report-idUSL4N2J81FH

    (Reuters) -Tesla Inc will come to India early next year, country's transport minister Nitin Gadkari told national daily the Indian Express on Monday.

    The electric-car maker will start with sales and then might look at assembly and manufacturing based on the response, the minister told here the newspaper.

    Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk on Sunday confirmed India foray in 2021 in a reply on Twitter, but said it would not happen in January.

    submitted by /u/coolcomfort123
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    Breaking: ANT group ordered by China to “return to its roots”. BABA down in Hong Kong.

    Posted: 28 Dec 2020 02:21 AM PST

    https://www.barrons.com/news/china-orders-ant-group-to-return-to-online-payment-roots-01609145405

    Ant group looks like it will Be forced to return to basic money transfers and concede any realm which may interfere with Chinese banking giants (Crony communism ehh?)

    Ali Baba Has also implemented a 10B stock buyback, but it wasn't enough to keep BABA from trading lower in Hong Kong in the early hours.

    Just when we thought the worst was behind us last week ...

    submitted by /u/debussyxx
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    What's up with $NET and $SHOP today

    Posted: 28 Dec 2020 12:39 PM PST

    Cloudflare is down currently over 8% today. Shopify is down over 5%. Meanwhile Amazon is up 3.5%. Did I miss any important news? Or is it just market randomness.

    Should I buy the dip, if so which one?

    submitted by /u/ictp42
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    Nio, Li and Xpeng, time to buy after the dip. They are the top 3 EVs in China. The industry is expected to double its sales or more next year. After a big dip I think it’s set for another rally.

    Posted: 28 Dec 2020 08:28 AM PST

    There doesn't seem to be any negative news except for KNDI but overall that is expected in China. I mean just look at NKLA in the US. Those are outliers trying to get a piece of the pie. Nio, LI and Xpeng are building momentum in the high end vehicle market where the highest demand is. Delisting might not even take place 3 years from now. They have all gotten price target for around 57-60$. What are your guys thoughts on them?

    submitted by /u/rasta7383
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    Stock picks 2021

    Posted: 28 Dec 2020 06:53 AM PST

    I know this post has been made a couple of times and I have read most of them. I was thinking of buying NET, AAPLE, maybe AMZN, AMD. Rate my picks, and I am open to new suggestions and will do some DD. Thank you for advice.

    submitted by /u/LouisZept
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    Tesla entering India

    Posted: 28 Dec 2020 08:44 AM PST

    ... Tesla's plans in India are beginning to take shape. Tesla will begin operations in India early next year, the Indian Express reported.

    The country's transport minister, Nitin Gadkari, said Tesla will start with sales and then may consider assembly and manufacturing based on the response.

    Source: https://www.investors.com/news/tesla-stock-elon-musk-calls-out-haters-ambitious-goal-in-reach-india-entry-eyed/

    BOOM!!!

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    NNDM set for major acquisition

    Posted: 28 Dec 2020 08:36 AM PST

    Nano Dimension announced, as with its previous capital raising rounds, that the new funds are required for working capital and general business need that could include 'strategic opportunities,' including acquisition of companies.

    Source: https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-israeli-3d-printing-co-nano-dimension-set-for-major-acquisition-1001355061

    submitted by /u/newbie_3297
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    XPEV - Is now a good time to buy?

    Posted: 28 Dec 2020 04:19 AM PST

    XPEV hashad quite a large correction and is now trading at 41. To me, it appears to be the most attractive of NIO, XPEV and LI. This is mainly due to them having the superior business model.

    My question though is do you think now would be a good time to start a position in XPEV? I already invest in TSLA, so it's slightly repetitive, but I feel like XPEV can return to its former levels?

    submitted by /u/fitchaber10
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    A must-read article to understand today's stock valuations

    Posted: 28 Dec 2020 09:06 AM PST

    This is by far the best explanation of Robert Shiller's excess CAPE yield, which kinda attempts to justify today's stock valuations. A must, must read:

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/danrunkevicius/2021/12/28/the-stock-market-is-the-cheapest-since-1980

    submitted by /u/TopAnalyst
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    Quick Stock Market News for Today | SP500 / NASDAQ / DOW JONES / ALIBABA [BABA] | [12-28]

    Posted: 28 Dec 2020 05:06 AM PST

    Do you want to know what happened in the stock market on Thursday? Let's talk quickly about that and what were the latest news over the weekend

    ~Long Post~

    Hello everyone and Good Morning! I'll try to keep this as short as possible this time so that everyone can enjoy the holiday period as much as possible. So, let's start with the recap of Thursday, as we saw all 3 big indexes closing in the green with the SP500 leading the way up .35%, but still lost ground for the week, down .14%, the Nasdaq Composite gaining .26% and finishing .38% up for the week and the Dow Jones rising by .23% to close the short week of trading with a small gain of .1%.

    We also saw the VIX dropping by more than 7% again to bring the volatility index down to the previous levels before the 30% spike we saw on Monday, as it has dropped almost 7 points after that spike.

    We had a pretty much even market with just over 100 new highs as most companies traded below average volume on the short day, with 10 of the 11 sectors of the SP closing in the green, with Real Estate, Utilities & Technology leading the way while the Energy sector was the only one which lost ground Thursday, as Large-Cap growth companies were the biggest gainers, with small-caps finally underperforming after a great run in the past weeks.

    Here is the HEAT MAP from Thursday, with most big tech Names gaining slightly, except Alibaba which plunged after China started the probe into the monopolistic practices of the company, while for the week we can see a pretty mixed stock market with big gains being made in the tech sector mostly, while big healthcare names, utilities and most of the Energy companies lost ground this week.

    We also got a couple of economic numbers in the past few days, as holiday retail sales are estimated to be up 3% with online sales up almost 50% between the 11th of October and the 24th of December as e-commerce accounted for almost 20% of overall retail sales, up more than 6% since last year with big winners like Amazon, Wayfair an Etsy as well as big gains in the home improvement and home furniture sectors.

    The other big number we received is more worrying, as investors have made a new high in margin debt, with over $700B in margin through November, I personally don't use margin even when buying leveraged products to avoid too much volatility in my portfolio.

    And one last report that we got from Reuters, is that they expect China to overtake the US and become the biggest economy by the end of the decade.

    We only have a fed survey coming in today, and this week will be most of the same, with only some sprinkled numbers in the middle of the week, and not anything interesting to be reported as earnings go, before a closed day on New Year's Day.

    And in some other stock market news, we saw Alibaba increasing the stock buyback plan to $10B but this wasn't enough to stop the bleeding for the company as this news came alongside the demands made by the regulators for Ant Group to fix problems in some segments of their business before they can move on with the company going public.

    Let's hope for a good day in the market as the FUTURES US / FUTURES INTL seem to be pointing at a good open, with all 3 big indexes in the green as the Nasdaq is leading the way, after President Trump finally signed the stimulus deal last night, finally ending this long messy situation.

    Thank you everyone for reading! Hope you enjoyed the content! Be sure to leave a comment down below with your opinion on the stock market!

    Have a great day and see you next time!

    submitted by /u/0toHeroInvesting
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    Strategy for 2021

    Posted: 28 Dec 2020 11:34 AM PST

    Starting to think about how I plan to approach investing in 2021 and a few things are swirling around in my head at this point:

    1) Risk of an early January pullback. Why? Investors made more money in the markets in 2020 than ever before, which means huge tax bills, which is an incentive to wait until January to take profits in order to push those tax bills back a full year. This means we might get a chance to buy some stocks at discounts in the New Year.

    2) This year was highly, highly unusual and won't be repeated in 2021. I think there is an increased likelihood we see a real rotation out of the high multiple growth stocks that led 2020 and into undervalued stocks. The market leaders of 2020 will not necessarily be the leaders of 2021. This is especially true of the FOMO/meme stocks.

    3) Notwithstanding (2), there were certain themes that emerged strongly in 2020 that will carry through because they are dominant themes for the near future. I think the top 3 are e-commerce, fintech, and genomics. Some of the leaders in these areas have done very well in 2020 and might pull back or base early in 2021 so the valuations become more reasonable. This is where we might get some good opportunities if (1) does in fact occur.

    4) 2021 will be the year the world gets vaccinated for COVID, so it should be the year of the reopening stocks. Travel/tourism, restaurants, brick-and-mortar retail, casinos have all come off their bottoms but have a long way to go. As the world gets vaccinated and starts to get back to normal, people will be desperate to enjoy these things again. Given (2), this is where we could find many of the market leaders in 2021.

    5) Longer term risk to the markets when the Fed starts closing the spigot. The markets will continue to climb as long as the Fed keeps propping it up, which is why we've had the longest bull market in history and are seeing crazy valuations. So despite the risk of a pullback early in January, there is no reason the market won't continue up from there - until Fed liquidity starts to dry up. That's when we could see the start of a real bear market.

    Thoughts?

    submitted by /u/SirGasleak
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    Is Digital Turbine (APPS) posed to grow with AAPL? Would it be a good long term holding, and is it overvalued?

    Posted: 28 Dec 2020 08:44 AM PST

    Hello, I have a good amount of my portfolio (20 percent) in Apple. Recently, a stock called Digital turbine caught my eye. It was in a collection of stocks I had small investments in, but when it skyrocketed from 40 to 60 (now about 56) after news of Apple profits (correct me if I'm wrong), It got my attention, and I think I am ready to buy it. Before I do so, I have a few questions on what you think about this stock:

    As AAPL grows, do you think APPS will grow?

    Would APPS be a good long term holding?

    And does APPS seem overvalued to you.

    Thanks!

    submitted by /u/AbjectiveDiamond123
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    Don’t sell on a loss and BABA?

    Posted: 28 Dec 2020 12:23 PM PST

    I know you shouldn't sell on losses because you don't lose til you sell. However with the Chinese gov crackdowns on big businesses, does anyone have any knowledge of what could happen with that situation? Would they be broken up or what and then what would happen with that stock?

    submitted by /u/goobsmacked
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    tell us what you bought today....ill go first.

    Posted: 28 Dec 2020 01:06 PM PST

    2 AMD

    1 SQ

    2 SE

    2 NET

    5 BETZ

    10 AQB

    1 CLNE

    50 TSCRF

    keep waiting for square to drop, but wasnt happening. not sure how i feel about my purchases. first 4 i think are safe long term....the others i threw a little money at each, higher risk/reward part of portfolio

    submitted by /u/rammerman123
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    How do you guys deal with taxes?

    Posted: 28 Dec 2020 01:59 PM PST

    New to investing here.

    I'm thinking of selling my shares but I'm wondering how do I go about taking care the tax business.

    I understand we will get all the necessary tax forms from our financial institution and realized gains and losses would be there.

    But my understanding with IRS, they need to be paid quarterly any owed tax.

    Do you guys just send 25% of the gains in check to IRS and whatever the state income tax is? or do you guys just do everything when you file your taxes and pay the penalty?

    submitted by /u/Tazess
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    Cyber Security Stocks

    Posted: 28 Dec 2020 01:58 AM PST

    Hello Everybody,

    I want to add cybersecurity to my portfolio but I'm unsure which ones to add. I've been looking at CRWD and NET to be my two picks or would it be best to go for the CIBR ETF? Do you usually pick a few stocks for this field rather than just one?

    Any advice or stock recommendations is welcomed.

    submitted by /u/NextGMZ
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    Tax season is coming up, ive got a few questions

    Posted: 28 Dec 2020 01:27 PM PST

    So, as a new investor i have some questions about taxes, as tax season is near

    Lets say i buy a share of apple at a hundred dollars. I then sell that share three months later for a hundred and twenty dollars. This all occurs within the same calendar year.

    I understand that since i held apple for less than a year, i would pay short term capital gains, which is just taxed at my current tax bracket.

    Here is my question. Since i profited twenty dollars from the sale, do i pay short term capital gains on JUST the profit of twenty dollars? Or do i pay taxes on the entire 120 dollar transaction? Thanks in advance!

    submitted by /u/janitorguyeyy
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    High dividend yield stock advice

    Posted: 28 Dec 2020 01:18 PM PST

    So while doing some penny stock and high dividend yield stock searching I came across 3 main stocks. NLY (Annaly Capital Management), HEP (Holly Energy Partners) and PNNT (Pennantpark Investment). All of their dividends is about 10%+ and I was wondering if it is worth investing into. The stock price is about $10. What do you think is the long term value of a stock like this. Thank you appreciate the help.

    submitted by /u/Stickbot04
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    The Greeks: What You Should Know Part 2

    Posted: 27 Dec 2020 09:43 PM PST

    A lot of us know what the Greeks do individually but aren't as certain on how they behave in relation to each other and the underlying asset. This write up will be done with the assumption you have read the previous post here:

    Quick Example

    Say John buys XYZ 100 1/15/21 Call (Buy-to-Open) for 1.00 and this contract has the following values:

    Delta: 0.50 Gamma: 0.05 Theta: -0.02 Vega: 0.01

    and the Current price of XYZ stock is $95.00.

    This tells a lot but we will start with how Delta and Gamma work together:

    (1) The Delta says that for every $1 move either up or down in price, will either decrease or increase the value of the option contract by 0.50 (e.g. $50). You will notice most option contracts are bought and measured for statistical purposes in the ranges of 0-0.20, .21-.40, .41-.60, .61-80, and .81-1.00.

    (2) Then because Gamma is 0.05, for every change in Delta relative to a $1 movement in the underlying asset, The value of the option contract will increase by an additional 0.05 ($5) for every additional $1dollar change in the underlying assets price which would there create a correlated change in delta which is measured by gamma. So if the option contract for XYZ is 1.00 when the price of the underlying asset is $95 and then price moves up $1 dollar then the value of the contract becomes 1.50. (1.00 + 0.50) THEN, if the price moves an additional $1, Then the equation becomes, (1.50 + 0.50 + 0.05) = 2.05.

    We add Delta and Gamma together whenever we have additional 1$ movements or quantifiably similar changes in delta.

    (3) Theta, which is the amount of daily time decay that decreases the value of your options contract. So here we know that even if delta and gamma increase, With Theta being -0.02 we can expect to lose 0.02 every day we hold this contract. INCLUDING WEEKENDS. So now the Equation becomes 2.05 (current value of delta + gamma after a $2 movement) – 0.02 = 2.03.

    (4) Vega tells us that if Implied Volatility has a 1% change, then Vega will correlate the price increase or decrease related to the premium paid to buy/sell an option contract. If Vega is 0.01 then we add that to the value of the option contract. With 2.03 (Delta + Gamma – Theta) + 0.01 ($1) = 2.04.

    We do not use RHO in this calculation.

    Please note that these are not Static numbers and they will change drastically in relation to volume.

    You will notice Greek Combinations that have very high Delta and Gamma and Vega translates to an option most likely having a Higher Implied volatility because of how much of a range the option can move in and out of the money from delta and gamma while understanding from Vega that there is also a lot of dynamic price movement to either side. You will find these combinations in ETF's like SLV, GOLD, XLK, things like that. Because they have high In-the-money probabilities and because their price doesn't move much, GAMMA is very high which in turn means that smaller changes in delta will add to your contract value quicker.

    The most important thing here is understanding the formula and making sure there is liquidity (Volume and open interest) in your contract position.

    I did want to touch on straddles and covered calls which many believe is a better way to trade options in terms of risk vs. reward.

    Straddles
    When an Investor is not sure which direction the market will move but has a strong opinion that there will be dynamic movement, a strategy that might be employed is the purchase of a straddle. This is the combining of a put and a call on the same stock with the same exercise price and expiration date. If the stock moves up, a profit is made on the call; if down, a profit is made on the put. Those who buy a straddle will profit from volatility while those who sell a straddle will profit if the market is stable because the options will expire unexercised.

    Writing Calls

    A Neutral or Bearish investor can write (sell) a call and collect the premium. An investor who believes a stock's price will stay the same or decline can write a call to:
    (1) Generate income from the option premium
    (2) partially protect (hedge) a long stock position by offsetting any loss on the sale of the stock by the premium amount
    (3) If the stock price increases, the call may be exercised. In addition to the premium received when the option was sold, the writer will be paid the strike price for the stock.
    If the option writer is the owns the stock on which the call is being written, is it known as a covered call and the risk is limited because no matter how high the stock price rises (meaning the call will certainly be exercised) , the writer merely uses the stock already owned (which has been deposited with the broker-dealer) to make delivery. However, if the writer does not own the stock, the option is uncovered (usually referred to as "naked" in the industry). That's when the risk is unlimited, because the writer must pay the going market price (and there is theoretically no limit as to how high a stock's price can go) to acquire the stock needed to fulfill the obligation to deliver. That is why Naked Call writing is the most risky option strategy.

    There much more to learn

    Hope this helps!

    Edit: Added content related to straddles and covered calls

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    Trump Signs Covid-19 Aid Bill

    Posted: 27 Dec 2020 05:33 PM PST

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-signs-covid-19-aid-bill-averting-government-shutdown-11609117841?mod=mhp

    President Trump signed a sweeping pandemic-aid bill on Sunday night, ending a standoff with Congress and paving the way for millions of Americans to get economic relief as the coronavirus pandemic surges across the country.

    submitted by /u/Treesawyer5
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    When and how to use stop loss orders?

    Posted: 28 Dec 2020 02:15 PM PST

    Basically the title. It's going quite well for me, with my portfolio 27% up this year, that is with a lot already cashed in and just recently bought, but as well all know things can only go south when they are going well in the first place.

    So I wanted to set up stop loss orders to protect myself from losing too much money in case of another crash, as it's widely anticipated among experts. But I love to invest in small caps and pennystocks wich are volatile by nature, so I'm having a hard time to decide on whether to use them at all and if I do, to what amount I should set them. Do you have any tips or trustworthy sources for me?

    submitted by /u/Loquaxus
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    Quantumscape ($QS) SEC filing

    Posted: 28 Dec 2020 04:59 AM PST

    Got this notification this morning in relation to a new QS filing: QS sec filing

    I'm a complete noob at stocks and investing, and trying to understand what this means (or rather find out what's been amended) - guessing you'd have to do a direct comparison of the original S-1 form?

    Would be very grateful if anyone could please help me understand this (and if there's anywhere to help understand SEC filings).

    Thanks!

    Edit: This is a great post

    submitted by /u/lokusai
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    Time to buy SBE?

    Posted: 28 Dec 2020 09:45 AM PST

    SBE is down by 8% as of today. Last week it did really well, and sold it before it dropped. Deciding if it's worth buying again while it's still dipping and holding it long term. Is anyone else doing the same?

    submitted by /u/DavidNguyen2354
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    "In December, ARK Investments took in nearly $6.8 billion new assets, the third most only behind ETF giants Vanguard and BlackRock’s iShares"

    Posted: 27 Dec 2020 04:49 PM PST

    The company's flagship product, the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), alone attracted $2.9 billion in December, representing about 15% of the fund's total assets as of Thursday. ARK Genomic Revolution has seen an even sharper uptick: Its $2.2 billion asset inflows this month represent nearly 30% of the fund's total size.

    Source

    Is this concerning for any of you ARK holders? I am a big fan but the funds are transforming into a different beast which could mean different strategies (and returns!).

    submitted by /u/EveryoneIsGoldeen
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