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    Tuesday, December 1, 2020

    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing

    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing


    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.

    Posted: 01 Dec 2020 04:13 AM PST

    If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions. If you are going to ask how to invest you should include relevant information, such as the following:

    • How old are you?
    • Are you employed/making income? How much?
    • What are your objectives with this money? (buy a house? Retirement savings?)
    • What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
    • What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors?)
    • Any other assets? House paid off? Cars? Expensive significant other?
    • What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
    • Any big debts?
    • Any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer.

    Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq

    Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    GM has dropped its plan to build the Nikola (NKLA) Badger electric/fuel cell pickup truck and take a stake in the company.

    Posted: 30 Nov 2020 06:12 AM PST

    https://electrek.co/2020/11/30/gm-cancels-deal-build-nikola-nkla-electric-hydrogen-pickup-truck-controversies/

    GM has dropped its plan to build the Nikola (NKLA) Badger electric/fuel cell pickup truck and take a stake in the controversial company.

    However, GM will still supply Nikola with fuel cell hydrogen technology for its semi trucks.

    As we have been reporting over the last few months, Nikola is currently in hot water after a report from Hindenburg Research made several allegations exposing deception by Nikola and its founder Trevor Milton, including several claims corroborated in previous reports.

    submitted by /u/SuperMcG
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    Ex-Tesla Factory Worker Settles Trade Secrets Lawsuit With EV Maker For $400k

    Posted: 30 Nov 2020 10:33 PM PST

    News

    Former Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) factory worker, Martin Tripp, has agreed to pay the company $400,000 to settle a lawsuit, Bloomberg reports.

    What Happened: Tripp's payment is part of the $167 million lawsuit filed by Tesla in 2018 that accused him of illegally divulging trade secrets related to Model 3 production.

    Tripp, who worked at the Nevada factory from 2017 to 2018, was fired after Tesla found out he was the source leaking information about Model 3 production delays to reporters.

    Telsa filed a lawsuit against Tripp a day after firing him. Tripp and Tesla CEO Elon Musk have engaged in a public feud since, trading insults.

    Tripp claimed that he was a whistleblower and wanted to bring to light Tesla's factory inefficiencies and scrap wastage, which cost the company $150 million, and he countersued Musk for defamation.

    Why It Matters: As part of the settlement, Tripp admitted violating trade secret laws and confidentiality agreements and promised to pay Tesla $25,000 for continuing to reveal information about the company despite being ordered to stop by a judge.

    The federal judge also threw out Tripp's case for failing to show that Musk acted with actual malice.

    submitted by /u/OfficerTruth
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    I made a live Google Doc with 61 stocks connected to Electric Vehicles (EV makers, Battery makers, Charging networks, Mining companies, new SPACs). What am I missing?

    Posted: 30 Nov 2020 12:06 PM PST

    What stocks would you add that is connected to electric vehicles (and focus on EVs mainly, not traditional automakers that are now thinking of EVs).

    My goal is to have one spreadsheet to overview every stock connected to EVs in one place.

    Here's the link:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sKMfBZNkHdvaVKmweuv3sD--CzfvImALJxGj2Xj7Ozw/edit?usp=sharing

    Feedback is appreciated. Thanks!

    submitted by /u/JaanatEVuniverse
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    Exxon cuts capex and will write off up to $20bn in assets

    Posted: 30 Nov 2020 05:13 PM PST

    https://reuters.com/article/exxon-mobil-outlook/update-3-exxon-tries-to-put-the-worst-behind-it-with-20-bln-writedown-idINL4N2IG4LY

    Exxon Mobil Corp on Monday said it would write down the value of natural gas properties by $17 billion to $20 billion, its biggest ever impairment, and slash project spending next year to its lowest level in 15 years.

    New cost cuts aim to protect a $15 billion a year shareholder payout that many analysts believe is unsustainable without higher prices.

    The writedown lays bare the size of the miscalculation that the company made in 2010 when it paid $30 billion for U.S. shale producer XTO Energy as natural gas prices went into a decade-long decline. The writedown also includes properties in Argentina and western Canada.

    submitted by /u/sierratrading
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    Canadian electric truck and bus manufacturer to "IPO" on NYSE via a merger with $NGA

    Posted: 01 Dec 2020 03:35 AM PST

    https://tcrn.ch/33yjZxh

    Canadian electric truck and bus manufacturer The Lion Electric Company said Monday it plans to become a publicly traded company via a merger with special purpose acquisition company Northern Genesis Acquisition Corp.

    The combined company, which will be listed on the New York Stock Exchange, will have a valuation of $1.9 billion. The companies raised $200 million in private investment in public equity, or PIPE, and hold about $320 million in cash proceeds.

    The deal is the latest example of an electric automaker opting to go public via a special purpose acquisition company merger in an aim to access the level of capital needed to become a high-volume vehicle manufacturer. Arrival, Canoo, Fisker, Lordstown Motors and Nikola Corp. have all announced special purpose acquisition company mergers in 2020.

    In Lion's case, the combined net cash will be used to fund the company's growth, notably the planned construction of a U.S.-based factory and to further develop its advanced battery systems. Lion is evaluating more than 10 potential brownfield plant sites in nine states, including California, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington and Wisconsin. The company told TechCrunch it plans to pick a site and complete its industrialization plan by the end of the year. Production at this yet-to-be named factory is expected to start in the beginning of 2023.

    Lion is already producing all-electric medium and heavy-duty urban trucks and buses at a 2,500-vehicle-per-year manufacturing facility. Some 300 vehicles are on the road today and the company has plans to deliver 650 trucks and buses in 2021. It even landed a contract with Amazon to supply the e-commerce giant with 10 electric trucks for its "middle mile" operations.

    Completion of the proposed transaction is expected to occur in the first quarter of 2021. Lion is expected to be listed on the NYSE under the new ticker symbol "LEV." Lion's CEO and founder Marc Bedard will continue in his role. The combined company will have a board of directors consisting of nine directors, including Bedard, Pierre Larochelle from Power Sustainable as chairman, and five other existing Lion board members, as well as Ian Robertson and Chris Jarratt, who are co-founders of Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp.

    submitted by /u/aLifel0ngLearner
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    Worth investing small sums?

    Posted: 01 Dec 2020 02:16 AM PST

    Hi,

    I'm from a small European country and I don't make a lot of money monthly, but I was wondering if it's worth to invest something like 50 dollars monthly. So basically 600 annually.

    Could I make some profit in the following years by investing this sum?

    Thanks

    submitted by /u/FilmGuy528491
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    AbCellera's (ABCL) $200mn IPO: Everything You Need to Know about the Peter Thiel-backed, AI-powered, COVID-treatment approved, Biotech Company

    Posted: 30 Nov 2020 04:43 PM PST

    Hi all,

    We're excited about AbCellera's IPO and noticed nobody is really paying attention or interested. We've put together an analysis on their IPO below, with diagrams available at our seekingalpha blog post below. Appreciate any feedback and discussion!

    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/covid-19-treatment-developer-abcellera-biologics-files-for-ipo-1.1525743

    Summary

    • AbCellera has filed its preliminary prospectus for its IPO; shares have yet to be priced but the company is looking to raise a proposed ~$200mn.
    • AbCellera is a Vancouver-based AI-powered drug discovery platform with backing from Peter Thiel, known for its leading platform and COVID-19 treatment in partnership with Eli Lilly.
    • Its most successful antibody (LY-Cov555)/bamlanivimab has recently been granted emergency approval by Health Canada and the FDA - expected to receive >$100mn in royalties.
    • Its unique, proprietary business model and experienced management & board positions AbCellera for long-term success.
    • We see AbCellera as a play on LY-Cov555 success and the near-term delivery of other antibody candidates, with the downside of potential headline risk.
    • The Vancouver-based AI drug discovery platform that has caught the eye of investors including Peter Thiel for its leading platform and the development of its COVID-19 treatment with Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY), AbCellera Biologics Inc. (the "Company" or "AbCellera") is set to IPO (NASDAQ: ABCL) with Credit Suisse as lead left underwriter (prospectus filed November 20, 2020).

    Here's all you need to know about AbCellera and its proposed IPO.

    As part of our multi-part series detailing all you need to know about AbCellera and its IPO, part I of our analysis will focus on providing an overview of AbCellera's business model, competitive landscape, key financial metrics, IPO details, and our investment thesis. These are summarized in the outline below. Part II will dive deeper into the valuation, existing contracts, pro-forma financials, capital structure, and go-forward expectations for the business.

    Outline

    1. Business Model
    2. Recent Developments / Company Timeline
    3. Management Team & Board Overview
    4. Financial Analysis
    5. Competitive Landscape
    6. IPO Details
    7. The Bottom Line

    AbCellera Business Model

    AbCellera provides drug developers with a platform to find antibody candidates for drug research. Its AI-powered full-stack platform searches and analyzes real-world immune system databases to find leads that are subsequently used for clinical R&D. Unlike its competitors, AbCellera operates along the entire value chain from sourcing to the delivery of antibody candidates; this solves the existing problem of either inadequate/outdated discovery approaches or using multiple fragmented solutions (costly and inefficient).

    AbCellera's revenue is split into three streams - these streams include:

    1. Licensing / Research Fees (68% of revenue, 9 months ended September 30, 2020): payments for technology access and performing research
    2. Milestone Payments (32% of revenue): downstream payments for clinical/commercial milestones. Note: Only one program, LY-CoV555 with Eli Lilly, to date has resulted in milestone payments
    3. Royalties: royalties on net sales of any approved therapeutics. Note: As of September 30, 2020, AbCellera has yet to receive any royalties. Royalties generally will range from low-single digit for non-COVID targets to mid-teens to mid-twenties for COVID targets

    As of September 30, 2020, AbCellera had 94 discovery programs either completed, in-progress, or under contract, with a few public key partnerships below. Some of AbCellera's recent, public partnerships are as follows:

    Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) - On March 12, 2020, AbCellera and Lilly announced to co-develop antibody therapies for the treatment of COVID-19, the potential treatment LY-CoV555 accelerated due to Coronavirus Treatment Acceleration Program. As part of the agreement, AbCellera received an upfront payment of $25mn and is entitled to receive an aggregate of up to $29mn of milestone payments. As of September 30, 2020, AbCellera has received $8mn related to LY-CoV555 and is eligible to receive royalties on aggregate sales (including Lilly's $375mn and $312.5mn contracts with the US government and US Army Contracting Command respectively).

    Invetx - On February 23, 2020, AbCellera originally entered a multi-year, multi-target partnership agreement with Invetx. Based on the successful delivery of research programs under the original agreement, the scope of the collaboration has been expanded to include multiple new targets over several years on November 19, 2020.

    Kodiak Sciences (NASDAQ: KOD) - After a successful collaboration in 2016, AbCellera and Kodiak Sciences announced a new partnership on October 29. 2020 to generate therapeutic antibody candidates in ophthalmology.

    IGM Biosciences (NASDAQ: IGMS) - AbCellera and IGM Biosciences announced on September 24, 2020, that they have entered into a multi-year, multi-target strategic research collaboration and license agreement to facilitate the discovery and development of novel IgM antibodies.

    AbCellera's business strategy (per prospectus) is focused on (i) using the drug discovery platform to unlock new opportunities for therapeutic antibody development; and (ii) partners access the platform to eliminate the extended delays and costs associated with setting up drug discovery capabilities.

    Recent Developments / Company Timeline

    1. In March 2020, AbCellera entered into a discovery partnership with Eli Lilly and Company, to perform discovery research for a number of targets for Lilly that will result in antibodies for Lilly to develop and potentially commercialize.
    2. In April 2020, AbCellera entered into a multi-year agreement with the Canadian government's Strategic Innovation Fund, and CAD $175.6mn ($125.6mn) was committed by the Government of Canada, of which >$110mn remains and is intended to be used to build a GMP facility.
    3. In June 2020, LY-Cov555 moved to first in-inhuman testing and progressed to Phase 3 clinical trials.
    4. In November 2020, LY-CoV555 was granted emergency-use authorization by the FDA and Health Canada. For the nine months ended September 30, 2020, AbCellera received an aggregate of $8.0mn upon the satisfaction of clinical milestones by Lilly.
    5. In November 2020, AbCellera acquired Trianni for $90.0mn. Trianni develops transgenic mice that provide a source of fully-human antibodies for therapeutic antibody candidates. Trianni mouse technology will allow AbCellera to generate more high-quality antibodies against difficult targets and improve the speed of the discovery programs. In addition to strategic value, Trianni also generates revenues through mouse sales, platform licensing fees and associated downstream milestone payments.

    📷

    Company Timeline: AbCellera has demonstrated consistent growth and has generated positive operating cash flow cumulatively since its inception in 2012.

    Management Team & BOD Overview

    AbCellera's management team is highly experienced with significant experience in related industries. AbCellera has also continued to bolster its board of directors with high-profile names including Peter Thiel (Palantir, Paypal, Facebook) and John Montalbano (CPPIB) ahead of its IPO.

    With its recent additions, we view AbCellera's management team and board as a strength.

    📷

    Shareholders are detailed below:

    📷

    Financial Analysis

    In Part II of this analysis, we will take a deeper dive into the valuation, pro forma financials, capital structure, and go-forward expectations for the business. The below provides a brief overview of the financials. We view the company to be financially healthy, given the low capitalization and limited contractual obligations, supported by continued licensing/research revenue and royalties from LY-CoV555 and other contracts.

    Revenue has grown at a 109% CAGR since 2014, primarily driven by increased research fees (driven by the number and quality of programs under contract) and milestone fees (AbCellera received its first milestone fee in 2020 from Lilly of $8mn). September 2020 YTD revenue was ~$25mn (~$30mn pro forma for Trianni acquisition).

    Key Revenue Drivers in the near term will include milestone payments on existing contracts and royalty payments from Lilly for LY-CoV555. The company is eligible for royalties in low- to mid-teens for aggregate sales below $125mn and mid-teens to mid-twenties on aggregate sales above $125mn. Assuming a 20% royalty on existing US contracts (~$690mn), this would drive an incremental $137mn of revenue (excluding an additional $21mn available through milestone payments).

    Liquidity will be bolstered by the equity raise, with the use of proceeds used to continue making investments in R&D, building its business development team and other general corporate purposes. AbCellera has more than $8mn of total future contractual obligations and commitments (as of September 30, 2020), which can be financed through cash on hand or other debt (AbCellera has demonstrated access to bank and private placement debt).

    Capital Structure will look significantly different post-IPO; pro forma for the conversion of ~$80mn of convertible preferred shares and $90mn of convertible notes, AbCellera will have limited leverage on the balance sheet.

    Competitive Environment

    AbCellera's current market position as a full-stack service provider provides meaningful barriers to entry, with its primary competitors providing services at some point along its value chain. The integrated nature of AbCellera's services (provides integrated services from start to end), in addition to the nature of its AI-platform (interconnection and scale enable AI to continuously become more efficient) is a competitive advantage.

    That being said, the life sciences and biotech platform technology market is highly competitive; technical competitors at different stages of AbCellera's platform in the following fields are detailed below:

    Single-cell screening: Berkeley Lights Inc. (NASDAQ: BLI), HiFiBio Inc., Ligand Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: LGND), and Sphere Fluidics Ltd.

    Antibody RepSeq: 10X Genomics Inc. (NASDAQ: TXG), Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp. (NASDAQ: ADPT), Atreca Inc (NASDAQ: BCEL). and Distributed Bio Inc.

    Bispecific antibody engineering: Abbvie Inc. (NYSE:ABBV), Genmab A/S, Merus N.V. and Zymeworks Inc. (NYSE:ZYME)

    Discovery using genetically engineered rodents: Ablexis LLC, Crescendo Biologics Ltd., Harbour Antibodies BV, Kymab Ltd., Ligand Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: LGND). and RenBio Inc.

    In addition, AbCellera competes with a variety of fee-for-service contract research organizations, in most cases using legacy technologies that would compete with one or more steps in AbCellera's technology stack. Organizations may also elect to develop their workflows on legacy systems rather than rely on AbCellera's platform.

    IPO Details

    The IPO will be jointly underwritten by Credit Suisse (left lead), Stifel, Berenberg, SVB (healthcare specialist) and BMO Capital Markets. While the IPO has yet to be priced, we expect the IPO to price wide of the latest $12.46 funding round precedents, driven by continued positive news (FDA and Health Canada approval for Bamlanivimab, Trianni acquisition, new contracts, and more). We note the following pricing precedents:

    • March 2020: Series A2 preferred shares issued at $12.46/sh
    • April 2020: Existing shareholder purchased ~$600k of shares at $11.21/sh
    • June 2020: Existing shareholder purchased ~$3mn of shares at $11.21/sh
    • October 2020: Granted options to employees, consultants and directors to purchase ~3.6mn shares at a weighted average of $10.51

    Assuming a $25/share IPO price (refinements to valuation to come), we expect the fully-diluted share count to be ~39.8mn (~15.4mn shares outstanding as of September 30 plus ~$8.0mn shares issued as part of IPO plus ~8.1mn of convertible preferreds plus ~4.2mn of convertible notes plus ~4.0mn of options in the money), putting the pro forma market capitalization at ~$1.0bn.

    The Bottom Line

    Our Investment Thesis: we think that AbCellera is well-positioned to grow as a leader in an attractive, lucrative, and fragmented industry, supported by a strong management team and board. As the Company continues to find success, AbCellera will transition from its position today as a company heavily dependent on near-term binary outcomes (reliance on a few partnerships with milestone payments for revenue) to a more stable (royalty cash flows) company with significant upside for growth.

    The Positives:

    • World-class management & shareholder support
      • Experienced executive team with deep experience (STEMCELL, Precision NanoSystems)
      • Strong and supportive long-term minority shareholders and experience board
    • Leading industry platform with barriers to entry
      • Full-stack solution is a unique value proposition vs. its competitors.
      • Data generated through discovery partnerships provide the basis for training AI modules that yield new insights into antibody responses; with each research program, the platform becomes more effective and efficient
      • Benefits from natural antibody optimization vs "genetically made" antibodies from legacy systems
    • Scalable business with a large addressable market
      • AI platform and partnership strategy enables organic growth with minimal funding requirements
      • In 2019, antibody-based therapeutics accounted for over $140 billion in sales worldwide and represented five of the top 10 selling therapeutics.
    • The business model enables diversified revenue long-term stream
      • Three pronged revenue stream: research, milestone payments, royalties.
      • Revenue to stabilize as therapeutics are approved and come to market (e.g. LY-CoV555)
    • COVID upside
      • Bamlanivimab (Eli Lilly collaboration, LY-CoV555) approved for treatment by Health Canada and the FDA
      • Royalties and future milestone payments to drive near-term revenue growth

    The Risks:

    • Headline Risk: milestone payments and earnings are dependent on unknown, binary outcomes (excluding royalties).
      • Timing and quantum of LY-Cov555 royalties are unknown, delays or other negative developments would limit near-term upside
      • Lack of transparency - disclosure of partnerships is at the mercy of AbCellera's customers, with little to no control over public disclosure from partners.
    • Customer Risk: AbCellera's revenue stream relies on its partnerships as if it cannot maintain and expand current partnerships or failure to address the needs of customers could impact the market acceptance of the platform.
      • As of September 30, 2020, AbCellera had 94 discovery programs that were either completed, in progress or under contract, including 71 with the potential for milestone and royalty payments.

    Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

    https://seeking alpha.com/instablog/52796529-breakwater-research/5525083-pre-ipo-everything-you-need-to-know-abcellera-part-i

    submitted by /u/BreakwaterResearch
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    I made a DD on APXT at $10.75. My next big DD: GigCapital2 (GIX)

    Posted: 30 Nov 2020 10:46 AM PST

    So I did a big DD on APXT the day before it blew up and it was only trading at $10.75. It's now at $15.82 with room to continue growing. That's 47% in a week.

    My next play: GigCapital2 (GIX), which is merging with BOTH UpHealth and Cloudbreak Health. It will become UpHealth and trade under the ticker UPH. Currently only $10.30.

    UpHealth themselves say that this will create 'the only integrated profitable global digital health company'.

    What is UpHealth?

    UpHealth is a group of MedTech companies, including Thrasys and MedQuest Pharmacy, and is one of the largest providers of digital health services in the world.

    'With its combinations, UpHealth is positioned to reshape healthcare across the continuum of care by providing a single, integrated platform of best-in-class technologies and tech-enabled services essential to personalized, affordable, and effective care.' - BusinessWire.

    UpHealth, after the merger, will have 4 main service lines:

    • Integrated care management - 'population health solutions for patients with complex medical, behavioral health, and social needs'
    • Global telehealth - 'digitally enabling the continuum of care with award-winning digital primary care and specialty consultations globally'
    • Digital pharmacy - 'full service ePharmacy delivering compounded and manufactured medications'
    • Behavioural health - 'tech-enabled services rapidly digitizing mental health and substance abuse'

    UpHealth is already generating $115 million revenue in 2020, with EBITDA of $13 million.

    In 2021, UpHealth is expected to generate over $190M in revenue and $24M in EBITDA; 69% of the 2021 incremental revenue growth is already contracted. This is 65% revenue growth and 85% EBITDA growth. They're predicting 74% revenue CAGR from 2020 - 2022.

    UpHealth already has contracts with healthcare providers, insurers, and payers in all 50 states and also 9 other countries, with 1800+ US healthcare venues enlisted.

    The need for MedTech related services has really become apparent via Covid. The ability to have consultations and other related services without coming into direct contact is very desirable.

    What is Cloudbreak?

    BusinessWire: Cloudbreak Health revolutionized patient and provider communication with the introduction of video remote interpreting (VRI), establishing Cloudbreak as a pioneer in telehealth technology. Cloudbreak Health continues to innovate with Cloudbreak Telehealth Solutions, including telepsychiatry, telestroke, tele-quarantine, remote patient monitoring and other specialties. Committed to overcoming healthcare disparities and bringing language access to the point of care, Cloudbreak Health seamlessly integrates their language access solution, Martti, into a host of platforms, including Epic, Zoom, and Caregility. Performing more than 1.5 million minutes of telemedicine consultation each month on over 14,000 video endpoints at 1,800+ healthcare locations nationwide, Cloudbreak Telehealth simplifies how providers care for patients, putting a full care continuum at their fingertips 24/7.

    "Combining with UpHealth and its complementary suite of solutions will further our ability to power healthcare's digital transformation and resolve disparities on a massive scale. We are proud to be part of this mission together." – Jamey Edwards – CEO & Co-Founder of Cloudbreak Health

    Basically, Cloudbreak will give UpHealth another string to its bow but UpHealth was already an enticing enough prospect.

    UpHealth management team:

    Dr. Chirinjeev Kathuria - Co-Chairman and Co-Founder. Has an MBA from Stanford, also MD from Brown. Previously co-founded NightHawk, which eventually went public.

    Al Gatmaitan - Co-CEO. Served as COO of IU Health, which is a top 25 health system.

    Martin Beck - CFO. Ex JP Morgan Healthcare Banker.

    Other information:

    Enterprise value of merged company: $1.35 billion. At this valuation UpHealth only has a 6.9x revenue multiple. Compare that to other MedTech companies such as GoodRx (20x), Teladoc (19.1x), or Hims (8.9x), UpHealth is looking relatively cheap.

    Expected closing date: 1st quarter 2021.

    Currently trading at: $10.30. Make sure you buy GIX not GIK!

    Only thing left to do is for the GIX stockholders to vote on the proposal (which will go through). That's why it hasn't popped yet. The time to jump in is now, before the vote.

    Next GigCapital2 shareholder meeting: 8th December. This is likely when the vote will be, and so is the catalyst for all future price movement. Get in before then.

    Why I believe this is a good play:

    • It's targeting a rapidly growing industry which is boosted my megatrends like increasing elderly population
    • UpHealth is already profitable, making it less speculative than other SPAC plays.
    • High revenue visibility
    • Currently trading near NAV.
    • Vote upcoming = catalyst
    • It's a merger of 3 companies, which is cool.

    Positions: Shares in GIX. I think this could hit $20 over the next month 🚀🚀This does not constitute financial advice.

    Sources:

    https://uphealthinc.com/news-investors/

    https://www.cloudbreak.us/solutions/

    https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201123005682/en/GigCapital2-Has-Entered-Into-Business-Combination-Agreements-With-UpHealth-and-Cloudbreak-to-Form-Combined-Company-to-List-on-the-NYSE-Creating-a-Unified-and-Profitable-Global-Digital-Health-Company

    https://www.fiercehealthcare.com/tech/uphealth-cloudbreak-merge-blank-check-company-1-35b-deal

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gigcapital2-entered-business-combination-agreements-140000389.html

    submitted by /u/Laughingboy14
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    Bitcoin Jumps to Record High as Bulls Say This Time is Different

    Posted: 30 Nov 2020 07:24 AM PST

    • Largest cryptocurrency surpasses high set in December 2017
    • Digital asset was launched in October 2008 by unknown creator

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-30/bitcoin-jumps-to-record-as-advocates-say-this-time-is-different?srnd=cryptocurrencies

    submitted by /u/bubblesmcnutty
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    Why did Ark Invest sell Slack today?

    Posted: 30 Nov 2020 06:02 PM PST

    Ark Invest emails out its daily trades, and for 2020-11-30, there is an entry that is quite surprising to me:

    28 ARKW 11/30/2020 Sell WORK 83088V102 SLACK TECHNOLOGIES INC 1,424,300

    Now, ARKW has 2,575,137 shares of WORK remaining.

    However, according to 3 major media outlets -- Forbes, CNBC, and Business Insider -- today, Salesforce is expected to price Slack at a premium above its current market cap.

    (I would very much like to link the articles, but this subreddit bans Forbes and possibly CNBC for reasons that I do not understand. In any case, this is the same information that 3 major media outlet reported today. If you have a better source, please post it!)

    Why would ARKW sell 36% of its position in WORK a day before the acquisition announcement, when Salesforce is expected to pay more for the shares than the current market price?

    Does Ark Invest expect that the deal might not go through?

    submitted by /u/davidhenrysmith
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    Your #1 Stock for the Next 5 Years

    Posted: 30 Nov 2020 08:24 PM PST

    I know.... another one of these, but with do many new IPOs and new about existing awesome public companies, I think it is a worthy discussion.

    In the spirit of fun, if you had to pick 1, which one would it be?

    It is a very tough choice, but I would have to choose TDOC, cos the chronic condition side of their business (previously Livongo), is just so fast growing.

    submitted by /u/throwawayyourdukkha
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    How can a company(oil) keep losing year after year and still have a valuation of over 1b/pay dividends?

    Posted: 30 Nov 2020 03:57 PM PST

    Talking about kosmos energy. Have looked at it's income statemets and basically in the past 5 years(maybe longer) it has not produced any profits only consistent losses.

    Somehow they paid dividends in 2019/20 even though they lost money, how?

    You can argue if it would be a growth stock/tech stock but how come an oil company makes losses year after year and still has not a share price of 0

    Correction: Since inception they have had one year where they made profits, every other year are losses. That's 17 years. But even in the past their valuation was even higher at like 6/7b...

    Why and how?

    submitted by /u/Newtimeboyo
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    $DMYD : Own the Big Data Provider that Powers DraftKings and Fanduel WSB Crosspost

    Posted: 30 Nov 2020 12:45 PM PST

    UK's Genius Sports bets on NY-listed SPAC to go public in $1.5 billion deal

    https://www.geniussports.com/

    Investor Presentation

    TL;DR at bottom

    We've seen a huge shift in momentum for SPACs lately with pretty much every SPAC from fraudulent to zero revenue mooning to a pretty high entry point. Do you know what genuine company has been under the radar and stayed relatively unknown? Genius Sports.

    Genius Sports (Ticker: DMYD) basically captures and provides sports stats, data and technology that powers sports betting platforms, such as DraftKings, Fanduel, etc. on behalf of professional leagues

    • Some things to note:

      • With the advent of in-sports real-time betting, the market is exploding at over 25% annually
      • More states are legalizing sports betting, serving as a major growth catalyst: Genius customers are seeing 2-3x revenue growth in 2020
      • Sports leagues are coming back in fully in 2021 with COVID vaccination just on the horizon
      • This is a duopoly market with high barriers of entry, the other main rival being Sportsradar (remember the FEAC hype?)
    • Genius has a clear economic moat built around:

      • Proprietary technology to track and record in-game statistics on behalf of major sports leagues, in exchange for data rights
      • 7,000+ statisticians and agents on the ground, managing 240K+ events per year
      • Highly customizable software that manages every aspect of a sportsbook's data and trading offering, including advertising and streaming services
      • Significant opportunity for inorganic growth via M&A
      • Highly fragmented market for technology, content and media within sports ripe for consolidation to boost growth outside of plan

    Partnerships

    Their technology has proved to be incredibly well made with long term contracts with some big dogs you'll recognize:

    Basketball: NBA, NCAA, March Madness

    Soccer: FIFA, Premier League, Serie A, Bundesliga

    Golf: PGA, LPGA, European Tour

    Racing: NASCAR

    Online Sportsbooks: DraftKings & Fanduel

    Traditional Sportsbooks: MGM, Caesars, SkyBet, William Hill

    Financials

    • Already makes $140M+ in revenue AND is profitable, with $14M in 2020 EBITDA
    • Growing at 30% CAGR, with $230M revenue and $68M EBITDA by 2022
    • $500M+ EBITDA potential in the horizon
    • Customer contracts have guaranteed minimums with upside on usage. The majority of 2020 revenue is locked in for 3-4 years on average
    • Only ever lost one customer in the past three years

    Trading dynamics

    • Deal was overlooked because it was announced just before the election (10/27/20), one of the worst trading weeks for the entire market
    • Reddit following has been limited and Stocktwits nonexistent
    • Average volume of 259.78K with a LOI signed.

    If Genius Sports were to trade at similar 2022E revenue multiple of 19x as Draftkings, it would imply a stock price of $24-25

    TLDR: Long DMYD because it's a huge sleeper pick. These guys run the sports betting industry behind the scenes & make a ton of money in a fast-growing market. Basically they're the guys who sold shovels and jeans to the miners during the Gold Rush.

    submitted by /u/herpes384
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    I want to be wrong: The Golden Age of Investing seems to be over

    Posted: 30 Nov 2020 01:10 PM PST

    Disclaimer: I am a pessimist by nature.

    Hey.

    So I have a problem. I made easy gains on stocks this past year, without knowing how to pick stocks or do proper due diligence, without picking meme stocks.

    I basically threw darts at the S&P 500 board, after highlighting certain sectors I felt were going to bounce back. And I made what I perceive to be a shitload of money.

    My thinking is this: if the stock market is the only game left in town, I want to find other games. Because if people are thinking that this is the only game, the game is getting riskier and riskier (i.e. more expensive and more unlikely to produce future gains).

    In the past, investors had options for their money. They could invest in bonds that yielded relatively healthy, risk free returns. Real estate was much cheaper. Education (invest in yourself) was cheaper.

    I believe the options enabled healthier valuations for each class of asset. Now... bonds seem expensive. Real estate seems expensive. Gold seems expensive. Bitcoin seems expensive. Education... really super fucking expensive. And stocks?

    Stocks look like they have priced in 10 years' worth of intrinsic economic growth.

    My question is this... what do we do to secure our futures? If previous generations had access to healthy markets with opportunities for growth, what does the current generation have? Where do we look? Foreign markets?

    What are you guys doing, broadly, to invest in your futures? Are there any other investing 'games' we can play? Bonds, stocks, gold, real estate, formal education all seem to be overpriced. Should we use the easy money policies to start up our own businesses? What is the play here?

    submitted by /u/jcette
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    $WORK

    Posted: 01 Dec 2020 12:56 AM PST

    Rumour has it that the news of $crm buying over $work will be announced on Tuesday after market.

    1) As of now, $crm price has been dropping and $work price increasing. What is the reason behind this?

    2) after the merger news is announced, what are the chances of $work price increasing further?

    submitted by /u/machoguy0
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    long term bonds

    Posted: 01 Dec 2020 04:21 AM PST

    sorry if this is posted somewhere else not too sure how to check. but basically looking to diversify a little bit and my old man has some long terms bonds he bough many years ago and and making out pretty good on them now and was wondering if anyone had any advice on them.

    submitted by /u/prndan123
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    What is the easiest way to compare actual returns on funds like T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth Fund vs $S&P500

    Posted: 01 Dec 2020 04:20 AM PST

    Just based on % change in price T.Rowe does about twice as well as compared to the S&P500. However, the dividends are lower and there is a higher expense ratio. I'm assuming reinvestment of dividends btw.

    I have both in my 401k portfolio, but I am wondering if I should change my allocations.

    submitted by /u/spclsnwflk6
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    Mega backdoor Roth New Hire

    Posted: 01 Dec 2020 04:17 AM PST

    I have recently started my first job and I'm trying to get investment strategies in order.

    I live with my parents so I should be able to save a great deal.

    My company offers in plan same day roll-over and allows for after tax contributions to 401k.

    1. Does this mean I can get $37,500 + $6,000 into my roth IRA or do I need to ask more questions to HR?
    2. If I can contribute to Roth IRA with after tax deferrals, do I have any incentive to do more than my 5% match on traditional/roth 401k when I could just put that money into my roth IRA?
    3. Is the $37,500 roll over considered contributions, so I could withdraw them if needed tax and penalty free from Roth IRA?

    All help is welcome so feel free to chime in.

    submitted by /u/agpoison
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    Can someone explain Pfizer?!

    Posted: 30 Nov 2020 04:07 PM PST

    Scenario 1

    Pfizer announces a 90% effective vaccine..a huge collective sigh of relief ensues and it jumped ~8% the day and then proceeds to go down to an even lower valuation over the subsequent days and more or less stayed there.

    I don't know how much biontech went up but it went high, crashed hard then started rising again.

    Scenario 2

    Pfizer applies for emergency FDA usage and stock jumps about 3% while biontech jumps like 9% (don't quote me) and only the latter keeps going up

    Take away: partner company goes wild but not pfizer??

    Scenario 3

    Moderna says it's 95% effective, stock explodes. Moderna applies for emergency usage...Another explosion. Now it has more than 100% since before before it's first anouncement...

    So question...why???!

    I know moderna vaccine doesn't require the ridiculously low temps pfizer one does but it doesn't account for that disparity

    submitted by /u/knockedownupagain
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    Best trading platform/s in Europe?

    Posted: 01 Dec 2020 02:51 AM PST

    Lately I have been using Trading 212, which isn't bad at all, but in many stocks it doesn't let me buy shares, and I can't buy TSLA shares. I would like to ask here, if there's anyone from Europe who recommends me a reliable platform and brokers. I have searched a lot through internet but I can't seem to decide, since I can trust no more Google searches or YouTube videos, so that's why I am asking here.

    submitted by /u/kvalness
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    What are some dominant safe companies with a lot of room to grow next 3 years?

    Posted: 30 Nov 2020 11:02 PM PST

    Let me define:

    • Dominant: Either on top, in a duopoly, or an extremely strong up-and-comer that is likely to take the crown.

    • Safe: The market is likely to be fairly stable without huge downsides.

    • Room to grow: Either in it's core market or it is entering into growing new markets where the company is likely to win.

    My favorite picks are:

    • Walmart: One of the strongest lower-end consumer goods retailer. Will do well in a recession. Room to grow from its online division. With good logistics could take some market share from Amazon.

    • Unity Software: Enjoys a duopoly in video game engines. Video and mobile games are a growing market that's not slowing down anytime soon. Adoption of 5G and VR gives Unity new markets for growth.

    • TSMC: Makes 50% of the world's chips. 5G, artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, and cloud computing will only drive up demand.

    What are your picks? (household name picks are great too, but if you have some names that's not just the common FANNG+T that would be even better)

    submitted by /u/r2002
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    DD The Run of $NRGU, $GUSH, $ERX [Leveraged Oil]

    Posted: 30 Nov 2020 10:28 PM PST

    Current Price | Resistance Price | Post Covid Price (1 Dec 2020)

    $NRGU = $53.45 | $678-402 | $942.96

    ^ Potential recovery percentage growth to $942: 1677%

    ^ Peak 5 Year Price = $1142/Stock

    $GUSH = $34 | $324-835 | $1462

    ^ Potential recovery percentage growth to ~$1462: 4200% (No, I'm not kidding)

    ^ Peak 5 Year Price = $26,220/Stock

    $ERX = $13.56 | $73-131 | $179

    ^ Potential recovery percentage growth to $179: 1220%

    ^ Peak 5 Year Price = $445/stock

    Sample Growth Upon Recovery

    Not peak price but 1 year highs

    Assume $10,000 invested

    NRGU = x16.77 (1677%) = $167,700

    GUSH = x42 (4200%) = $420,000

    ERX = x12.22 (1220%) = $122,200

    Key Points:

    • Price is dependent on $XOP and $XLE since they are tracked by these companies. I am focusing on the oil aspect (not raw crude prices) and supply chains.

    • Mixture of Energy ETFs (leveraged). Energy does include oil, I am focusing on oil.

    • Highest yield growth in terms of recovery stocks/ETFs

    • If you really think oil exploration is going to end during EV, you're very wrong. Boomers are just waiting for a recovery and have doubled up on it.

    • One of the underlying stocks is Chevron (NYSE: CVX) Chevron is engaged in every aspect of the oil, natural gas, including hydrocarbon exploration and production; refining, marketing and transport; chemicals manufacturing and sales; and power generation

    • This includes the aspect of Fractional Distillation which has reduced in demand than normal during covid due to exportation issues.

    • To go deeper, fractional distillation is used for: Bitumen for roads and roofing. | Fuels for ships, factories and central heating. | Lubricating oils, waxes, and polishes. | Diesel fuels (many of the trains around the world still use this). | Jet fuel, paraffin for lighting and heating. (Airlines are starting to pick up in demand and many have started taking in bookings to prepare for flights > more consumption of jet fuels). | Petrol for vehicles (reduction in demand for this due to EVs and hybrids but this is the only aspect). | Chemicals. | Liquefied petroleum gas.

    • Biden supports renewable energy, but he would make sure the old money gets their run, as old money still runs the economy. - Leading to recovery.

    • Roads are still using to use refined crude oil despite the EV market.

    • These companies within these EFTs have invested heavily into solar energy, supporting sustainability, and adapting to changing markets. Which Biden is known for.

    • In terms of Leveraged EFT/Stocks = UCO (leveraged crude oil) used to be the reliable one but they changed their method to investment method because they couldn't survive March 2020, so these are the best alternatives.

    • All companies within the EFT are reducing greenhouse gas emissions

    • It's 3x leverage, what do you expect, high risk high reward.

    • Recovery Stock

    Risk:

    • Leveraged Stocks and ETFs are high risk high reward plays but cannot liquidate such as a leveraged/options contracts

    • Gives common stock buyers and holders a high risk opportunity play.

    • TQQQ recovered higher than it did recover and that's leveraged Nasdaq, this is due to percentage growth

    • Leveraged Stocks and ETFs are high risk high reward plays this will include drawdowns. (Highly volatile).

    • High overhead costs but this gets isn't a issue due to high cash flow of these companies.

    • If you buy leveraged contracts or options you'll have deeper profits but hope you have enough collateral to survive the drawdowns.

    • This is high risk and won't give you overnight returns but will give a decent gain only IF it works out.

    Conflict of Interest, Current Holdings Values

    • NRGU = 6k

    • GUSH = 19k

    • ERX = 13k

    • UCO = 22k

    • TSLA = 113k

    • AAL = 18k

    • CCL = 18k

    • RDSB (Caltex) = 9k

    submitted by /u/DumplingGoddessTe
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    Tesla in NIO/LI out?

    Posted: 30 Nov 2020 07:01 PM PST

    What do you folks think about tesla getting approval to sell in China? I have a bunch of Chinese EV stocks (NIO, LI, etc) which all went down on the news, and I'm wondering if Tesla is going to dominate that space and suppress local EV companies (and stock growth). I know that no one has a magic ball, just interested in opinions.

    submitted by /u/Redditridder
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