Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing |
- Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.
- Salesforce Signs Definitive Agreement to Acquire Slack
- December market meltdown?
- UK authorises Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine
- How is Airbnb going public for $25b considering...?
- Blackberry announces agreement with Amazon
- Why did you fire your investment advisor? (Or conversely, why did you keep yours?)
- CEO of World’s Largest Asset Manager Says Bitcoin Can Possibly ‘Evolve’ Into Global Asset
- Why do hedge funds still exist if it's generally accepted that they cannot beat index funds?
- Lululemon Analysis (NASDAQ: LULU)
- How some analysts are trying to screw you, a short analysis of J.P. Morgan's NKLA analyst
- day traders opening Investment funds?
- Robert Shiller explaining how currently high stock prices actually make sense.
- What's going on with Moderna?
- Current undervalued sectors?
- Why do some companies make 2+ different stocks for the same company?
- Argus Research boosts Moderna (MRNA) price target to $200
- Thoughts on GE?
- Shares of NBA Players To Be Available On Jock MKT Starting Dec.22
- $TLS - Telos Corporation (my take)
- Free Dividend Tracker
- Do you think future vaccine approvals are priced into current stock prices?
- SBE to Chargepoint Acquisition
- Signify is going to fire people... but couldn't find any external news
- Telos Corporation (TLS) has now awakened since its stagnant IPO, up over 15%.
| Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Posted: 02 Dec 2020 04:12 AM PST If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions. If you are going to ask how to invest you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  |
| Salesforce Signs Definitive Agreement to Acquire Slack Posted: 01 Dec 2020 01:20 PM PST
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| Posted: 01 Dec 2020 10:29 PM PST Hello all, I want to highlight a few points that I have observed in the markets in the past couple of weeks. 1) $908B stimulus bill 2) Corporate spreads 3) Market volatility in December I will try to keep it in broad terms and as always, please feel free to ask questions in the comments. 1) Legislators proposed a bipartisan stimulus bill of roughly $908B. At this point, it's not that surprising that the amount is lower than the initial ranges of $1.5tn - $3tn since there was a large divide in the Congress with regards to the size and allocation of capital. The news drove stock indices higher and also the Treasury yields higher, specifically 30-year treasury. Processing img 7p9v60zvmp261... I think this is one of a series of fiscal spending that will be coming in the next year or two. The 30-year yield has declined in recent weeks significantly. I have initiated a short position on 30-year futures this week. I think the upcoming vaccine news along with economic recovery in 2021 will serve as catalysts for a steady steepening in the yield curve. 2) Corporate spreads show that we are in an abnormally tight market. If you remember from the latest Market Commentary on 11/23/2020 (link below), I mentioned that we are entering the solvency phase of the corona crisis. I was worried that a slow economic recovery may push more companies to go bankrupt due to a protracted recovery. The reason was that if a restaurant had large amounts of interest payment coming due, it'll miss the payment and default. However, the total number of bankruptcies and loan default rates have been relatively subdued due to programs like Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), lower borrowing rates, and favorable economic outlook. Processing img ymulu82hip261... I have seen more and more companies are now able to reorganize their balance sheets to extend maturities, increase leverage at lower rates compared to March highs, and reduce their debt service payments. A restaurant that was expected to miss its December 2020 interest payment would have already refinanced its existing debt, lowered the near-term interest payments and extended out the maturity. This is all possible due to the highly stabilized capital markets. Processing img avaw2i9xnp261... Processing img ktmbvlwvnp261... A below-investment-grade company can now refinance their debt at 430 bps (basis points) spread to Treasury compared to more than 10% we have seen back in March. In effect, the pandemic wiped out those companies whose balance sheets were extremely-levered, but many companies got lifelines from the government and those who stayed alive were able to reorganize their balance sheets to be in a healthier position. Throw a vaccine on top of that and you will be out of the whole solvency crisis sooner than later. So far, it's all nice and rosy. But what's important to note is that this crisis is different than your usual ones. Normally, we would expect to see a deleveraging in a recession, companies reducing debt. This time, however, the total corporate debt outstanding has actually increased by wide margin. Processing img n73wgcwwpp261... What I'm trying to get at is that we've got two key trends happening: rising corporate debt levels but tightening corporate spreads. Generally, you would expect those two to happen at a market top, so this crisis is different and we should keep that in mind as we piece together the whole picture (remember the Mosaic Theory, from this link https://www.reddit.com/r/Midasinvestors/comments/ju7zbi/investing_philosophy_plz_read_this/ ). 3) Market may be volatile in December due to a few reasons. First, investors try to lower their tax returns for 2020 by selling their losing positions in December, which creates market volatility. But I wouldn't expect a market meltdown like the one we've seen in December 2018. Processing img 89yvvhjxqp261... That was primarily driven by Fed monetary tightening, reducing the balance sheet and raising interest rates. Processing img kvgod2d3rp261... Processing img imdq1g17rp261... However, I am more worried now than I have been in recent weeks. Second, as I said before, we are priced for an optimal outcome: vaccine, fast economic recovery, fiscal stimulus, lack of trade-war, and so on. If you had to bet on the next market move, you would probably guess that a negative news headline will tank the market more than a positive news headline will shoot up the market. But again, I wouldn't expect to see a meltdown like the one in December 2018. Lastly, I have noticed that the VIX index (volatility index) has moved in a positive correlation with the S&P 500. Processing img by9dun0zrp261... We have seen this a couple of times back in February just before the March crisis and in August just before the September drop. While this is not a perfect indicator, it is one of the pieces of information that we have to make our decisions. So keep this in mind. The bottom line is that as we are entering the year-end, I would be more cautious than optimistic. For those bond investors especially, I would suggest to be more concerned about the markets right now. HY spread of 430 bps right now is not attractive at all and you are not being compensated for the credit risks. For stock investors, I would also suggest to be careful but do not panic when the market drops. A good idea is to implement hedging strategies in the short term by buying SPY puts. Trading plan 1) Bullish on tech stocks. I'm still leaning bullish on broader digital consumer and enterprise spending. Favorite risk/reward plays at the moment are PDD, STNE, FVRR, FUTU, BABA, W, and SEDG. 2) Bearish on long-end yield curve. I continue to think yield curve steepening will play out in the medium to long-term (6 months - 2 years). I have initiated a short position on 30-year Treasury futures (ZB). 3) Bullish on gold. As dollar gets weaker, gold will likely gain a steam upwards and inflation gauges will not only put upward pressure on the 10-yr treasury yield but also on gold as well. I have initiated a call option on GLD. Given the recent drop in gold, I believe we are in a better risk/reward position to enter into the trade. R/Midasinvestors [link] [comments]  |
| UK authorises Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine Posted: 02 Dec 2020 01:47 AM PST UK authorises Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson said: The government has today accepted the recommendation from the independent Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) to approve Pfizer/BioNTech's COVID-19 vaccine for use. This follows months of rigorous clinical trials and a thorough analysis of the data by experts at the MHRA who have concluded that the vaccine has met its strict standards of safety, quality and effectiveness. The Joint Committee on Vaccinations and Immunisations (JCVI) will shortly publish its final advice for the priority groups to receive the vaccine, including care home residents, health and care staff, the elderly and the clinically extremely vulnerable. The vaccine will be made available across the UK from next week. The NHS has decades of experience in delivering large-scale vaccination programmes and will begin putting their extensive preparations into action to provide care and support to all those eligible for vaccination. To aid the success of the vaccination programme it is vital everyone continues to play their part and abide by the necessary restrictions in their area so we can further suppress the virus and allow the NHS to do its work without being overwhelmed. Further details will be set out shortly. [link] [comments]  |
| How is Airbnb going public for $25b considering...? Posted: 02 Dec 2020 01:19 AM PST ...it's revenues are only ~$4b and its YoY revenue growth is basically 30% (not including 2020, which is worse)? Is this based purely on comps? What's the usual valuation methodology? Is this what they mean by the tech bubble? These valuations make no sense. And what about the operating costs? How is this company still in the red when they barely even have any of the associated assets and operating costs commonly found in the hospitality industry? And the mountain of debt—what's its origin? Especially considering the historically low interest rates and the frothy markets. There really is no place for interest rates to go, except for up. Seems reckless to consider this anything but a maximally inflated valuation. Some of the rational I keep reading about—"The CEO is so charismatic! Millennials like him!"—it seems a bit emotional. Not a bad thing when you're sure of the Fed's strategy going forward. But in the case, monetary policy might change very soon. I understand why they'd want to rush this IPO, considering the macro trends and associated potential for lower valuations, but this seems way too risky for retail investors to consider as anything but a financial prospect with sketchy fundamentals, especially with the lockdowns basically guaranteed through Q2 of 2021 and possibly even longer. If the real estate bubble pops, people won't want to travel, and they won't have homes to use for Airbnb, either. [link] [comments]  |
| Blackberry announces agreement with Amazon Posted: 01 Dec 2020 12:12 PM PST Been following BB for a while since they had some projects going with both Amazon and Microsoft. The stock is having quite a big day so far, up 25% as of this moment. Today, they announced the following:
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| Why did you fire your investment advisor? (Or conversely, why did you keep yours?) Posted: 01 Dec 2020 07:28 PM PST I've talked to a few advisors recently. They charge anywhere from .5 to 2% of assets managed. Which doesn't seem too bad, actually, if they know what they're doing. Cathy Woods charge .75% to manage ARK, and her funds have suddenly done very well. How many of you still has an investment advisor who does the stock buying for you? What makes you trust them? What gives you the impression that they earn their percentage? Conversely, if you fired your advisor to do it yourself, why lead you to the decision? [link] [comments]  |
| CEO of World’s Largest Asset Manager Says Bitcoin Can Possibly ‘Evolve’ Into Global Asset Posted: 01 Dec 2020 11:56 PM PST According to a report by CNBC on Tuesday, CEO of BlackRock Larry Fink said bitcoin has "caught the attention" of many people and that the cryptocurrency market was still relatively small compared to others. Speaking to the former Bank of England Governor Mark Carney at the Council on Foreign Relations on Tuesday, Fink said the nascent cryptocurrency asset class can possibly "evolve" into a global market asset, CNBC said. According to the report, Fink also said having a digital currency has a real impact on the U.S. dollar, making it less relevant on a global scale for international holders of dollar-based assets. He also raised the question: "Does it change the need for the dollar as a reserve currency?" [link] [comments]  |
| Why do hedge funds still exist if it's generally accepted that they cannot beat index funds? Posted: 02 Dec 2020 04:15 AM PST Do they just exist to take advantage of the ignorant investor or is there something more that they offer that makes them more attractive than a regular index fund? relatedly, seems weird to me that a hedge fund manager can make a 6 figure salary and still underperform a high school kid who read one article on investing. [link] [comments]  |
| Lululemon Analysis (NASDAQ: LULU) Posted: 01 Dec 2020 06:29 PM PST Business Overview Lululemon is a popular clothing brand that designs and distributes apparel. The company relies on suppliers and manufacturers to make their apparel. Lululemon also sells fitness-related accessories (headbands, yoga mats, etc). In the company's 10-k, the word "sweat" is quoted, referencing the company's goal to build a community of people through living the "sweatlife." Historically, Lululemon's typical customers are women or people with a connection to fitness. Fitness is often referred to in the company's 10-k. Lululemon is extremely popular among women and there are companies trying to copy them. Lululemon references Nike, Under Armour, Adidas, Gap (Athleta), and Victoria Secret's Sport Collection. Lululemon operates 491 stores in 17 countries. This is an increase of 128 stores since 2016. The company added 51 stores in 2019 through 2020 alone. Lululemon also recently acquired Mirror, an at-home fitness startup. This is an interesting acquisition and it'll be interesting to see how Mirror is implemented alongside Lululemon's mission and what it means for the rest of the business. Competitive Advantages
Tailwinds
Financials
Lululemon had total revenue of roughly $4bn with total operating income close to $900 million. Total revenue is growing ~21%. Future Questions If I were to invest in Lululemon, here are some questions I'd want to answer before investing my own capital.
Conclusion Lululemon is an attractive company and is actually a 100-bagger since December 2008. Lululemon most likely won't be a 100-bagger or even a 10-bagger since the company has a market cap of ~$48bn. I know many people (both men and women) who are big fans of Lululemon and oftentimes the best investments have the most dedicated and loyal consumers. Lululemon might fit this bill. If you want more updates visit Weekly10K.substack.com. If you made it this far, I appreciate you! [link] [comments]  |
| How some analysts are trying to screw you, a short analysis of J.P. Morgan's NKLA analyst Posted: 01 Dec 2020 08:35 AM PST So, the GM MoU with NKLA gets published yesterday and the stock tanks. This is the last coffin in the nail for NKLA, they are completely done for. Yet, we hear our lord and savior Paul Coster(J.P. Morgan analyst) say this, {On Wall Street, two analysts who cover Nikola disagreed on what the scaled-down GM agreement means. J.P. Morgan analyst Paul Coster maintains an overweight rating on the stock. "We think this is a positive outcome for Nikola over the medium to longer term, since the company can now focus on the core Class 8 truck initiative and avoid the distraction and [capital expenditures] associated with the Badger," Coster said in an investor note.}-link. In October he said this, {J.P. Morgan analyst Paul Coster calls it "a compelling strategy."However, Coster also points out Nikola's near-term success hinges on GM signing on the dotted line."We think the GM partnership deal is the most important near-term catalyst," Coster said. "Failure to consummate the GM deal would be a fatal blow for the Badger initiative, but a serious blow to the more important Truck initiative too, in our view. The fuel station partnership announcement is less important, in our view, though a potential validation of the company that could resonate with investors. Pending completion of the five Nikola Tre trucks could be a boost to credibility, obviously… For now, the GM partnership is a stress-test for the company."Coster remains positive on Nikola and keeps an Overweight (i.e. Buy) rating along with a bullish $41 price target.}-link. Did you just read that? He has a price target of $41. Again, what he said yesterday kinda completely contradicts with what he said in October. 2 years ago he have had such a low rating(screenshot of a screenshot) that I find it surprising that he has almost come to 3 stars. Of course, he probably has inherent interest to see NKLA go above its current price. For this he doesn't give a f**k if people buy into his arguments and jump on board on this stock. I guess he wants just a dead cat bounce so that he could save his ass and make sure that retail investors become the ultimate bagholders of this company. There are many other analysts like that in the Street and I don't know how they remain in business for so long. But my main point is that be careful before you jump into a stock. Some of you probably just see an average analyst price target, see a stock is undervalued or overvalued and jump to trade it. I mean according to analyst estimates NKLA would be a kind of a good deal in this overvalued market(see PLTR price targets, it's hilarious). But we all know that this company's stock is ultimately going to $0(probably within next year). Disclaimer: I have NKLA Dec 11 $20 puts, long PLTR shares(so I have my bias too). [link] [comments]  |
| day traders opening Investment funds? Posted: 02 Dec 2020 04:29 AM PST Hello, I see a lot of these day trading gurus offering to invest your funds in the USA. I'm a finance student and not an attorney, but if these people haven't based any series 65 at minimum for a non-40acct fund. And if they aren't a registered investment advisors aren't they opening themselves up to be sued? How exactly is this legal or is it just all BS? Don't you also have to file the opening of your LLP with the SEC not to mention the hundreds of thousands you need to just be able to higher a good attorney to write up paper work, and the licenses needed to actually invest for people? [link] [comments]  |
| Robert Shiller explaining how currently high stock prices actually make sense. Posted: 01 Dec 2020 09:33 AM PST We often hear simplistic arguments citing "record high <price to earnings metric>" as their single definite proof that equities are overpriced. So here is an article from the guy who developed CAPE - among the P/E metrics most widely used in such arguments: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sky-high-stock-prices-make-sense-robert-shiller-says-11606838599 TL;DR: high P/E metrics don't automatically mean stocks are overpriced and you should sit in cash. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 01 Dec 2020 12:41 PM PST Things were looking very good the past week. This morning's opening rally was nuts, but I didn't foresee value plummeting to below yesterday's close, especially with so much positive news about the vaccine results and almost certain FDA emergency use authorization. Is this just people panicking about volatility and trying to extract what profit that can while they can, or is there some news I'm missing? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 01 Dec 2020 07:27 PM PST I started actively managing my Roth IRA last year. Invested heavily into Tech and small-cap growth stocks early in the year and those have done well. I want to start de-risking my portfolio into more undervalued sectors but I haven't really been following sectors trends throughout most year and I'm not sure what has been underperforming that may rebound in the future. Value stocks have underperformed growth over the past 10 years but I want greater exposure to value stocks as a way to limit risk. And since my 401K is invested into index funds that are mostly large-cap companies I prefer small-cap stocks in my Roth. So the ask is stocks that are:
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| Why do some companies make 2+ different stocks for the same company? Posted: 01 Dec 2020 01:21 PM PST I'm new to investing and I've noticed some companies have two stocks. For example Berkshire Hathaway has two tickers, BRK-A and BRK-B, and I was wondering why A costs over $300k a share B costs around $220 a share. I know Berkshire has a pretty obvious reason which is that most people dont have $300k laying around to invest but I was wondering about other companies too. Why do other companies make two separate stocks at different prices? Does it make a difference on returns/losses if you choose one over the other? [link] [comments]  |
| Argus Research boosts Moderna (MRNA) price target to $200 Posted: 01 Dec 2020 01:15 PM PST https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/MRNA/price-target/ Title. Probably based on news that Moderna is seeking emergency approval for the vaccine. I am long shares after the big drop today. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 01 Dec 2020 07:27 PM PST Hey Reddit! I've been investing for a little over a year now, and I feel like I'm getting the hang of it. General Electric (NYSE:GE) has been on a tear recently. I bought shares at $9 in September 2019, and have been gradually decreasing my cost basis. However, I want to know if it's a good buy as a "long" term (1y+) stock. I really like it's forward P/E of ~26, and I think it's price/sales is among the lowest in the market. They're trimming down their debt, and I think it could have a good 2021. However, it's volatile, and there are a lot of uncertainties ahead. I just want someone to condense this all into one answer. NOTE: I'm willing to take a lot of risk, but as the biggest position in my relatively small portfolio, I just want to know if I'm buying into the right thing. [link] [comments]  |
| Shares of NBA Players To Be Available On Jock MKT Starting Dec.22 Posted: 02 Dec 2020 05:09 AM PST Jock MKT ( Jock Market ), the platform that is turning sports into a stock exchange, announced they are adding the National Basketball Association's 72-game regular season starting Dec. 22 to allow fans to invest in shares of NBA players across all 30 teams. The announcement marks the third league within Jock MKT's proprietary algorithm that allows investors to buy and sell shares of NFL, NBA and PGA Tour athletes in real time for real money. [link] [comments]  |
| $TLS - Telos Corporation (my take) Posted: 02 Dec 2020 05:06 AM PST Telos Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides information technology (IT) solutions and services worldwide It provides Xacta, a premier solution for continuous assessment and authorization, which is used by the department of defense (DoD), intelligence communities, and civilian government, as well as by commercial businesses (Citigroup, Amazon, Salesforce); Enterprise cloud services, including engineering, migration, security, and managed services; and Telos Ghost, a cybersecurity solution that gives organizations an anonymous way to do business, connect with global resources, and conduct research online for intelligence gathering, cyber threat protection, securing critical infrastructure, and protecting communications and applications. Telos Automated Message Handling System, which protects and enhances the communications; real-time data collection on personnel movement and location information for operating forces, government civil servants, and government contractors; and nationwide identity verification, fingerprinting, and photo services. The company is not yet profitable but continues to increase sales from year to year and seems to be on the right track to move to profitability in the future. Due to the fact that the company has contracts with the government, they are by nature long-term contracts (5-10 years) and there seems to be a recurring revenue of about 85% of the existing revenue. At $ 2.3B valuation, it seems to be significantly smaller than its competitors and if it proves itself it has room to grow but in the same breath I will note that it reflects a high sales multiplier. (Not like SNOW / PLTR but still) The cyber market is huge and the company is targeting itself with interesting solutions for a growing market of hundreds of billions of dollars more info from SEC filing https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320121/000114036120025591/nt10015254x6_s1a.htm [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 02 Dec 2020 05:06 AM PST Hi guys I'm just wondering is there any good dividend tracking website or apps that are free? I keep using ones that require a subscription after only inputting 3-5 stocks you have shares in. I'm sure this a regularly asked questions here but im a newbie. Thanks! [link] [comments]  |
| Do you think future vaccine approvals are priced into current stock prices? Posted: 01 Dec 2020 04:40 PM PST With all the hype of vaccines going into emergency approval within the next few weeks and a lot of talk on who will be taking the vaccines first... it seems as if they already know vaccines will be approved. Do you think current stock prices reflect an approved vaccine? [link] [comments]  |
| SBE to Chargepoint Acquisition Posted: 01 Dec 2020 11:06 AM PST So SBE will be converted to Chargepoint shares. I want to know how the logistics will work. Right now it shows that SBE is at a market cap of a little over 1B. So is that the evaluation for Chargepoint. If not then how will the shares be transferred. Will the only thing that will change be the name or will there be an increase in the number of shares, different market cap, share price, etc. All of this is very confusing to me. Thanks in advance. [link] [comments]  |
| Signify is going to fire people... but couldn't find any external news Posted: 02 Dec 2020 03:21 AM PST Apparently yesterday Signify has published a video to their internal company's portal in which the CEO talks about "adapting Signify to the new economic situation". The CEO also admitted that they are already in contact with the local employees representatives. This smells like "firing employees", especially since the company already had money problem when Corona hit in March (and employees where asked to buy holidays, etc.). My question is: why isn't this news public? [link] [comments]  |
| Telos Corporation (TLS) has now awakened since its stagnant IPO, up over 15%. Posted: 01 Dec 2020 11:19 AM PST TLS hasn't had much traction since it IPO'd 2 weeks ago, hovering around the $20 range. For a reason I haven't figured out yet, it's peaked nearly $25 today and holding steady at over $23. Are people finally catching onto this stock? TLS is a cyber, enterprise, and cloud security company that has both government and commercial contracts. I believe they are attempting to expand into the commercial field. Perhaps there's some good news forthcoming given the boom. I believe this is a strong stock to hold onto for the future given the increasing demand for the services TLS can provide. Thoughts? Edit: Maybe the jump today was because of the recent AWS news? TLS and AWS have a partnership. [link] [comments]  |
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