• Breaking News

    Monday, November 30, 2020

    Value Investing Jim Chanos - Casino Capitalism: Fraud, Mania & Euphoria On Wall Street | Hedgeye Investing Summit

    Value Investing Jim Chanos - Casino Capitalism: Fraud, Mania & Euphoria On Wall Street | Hedgeye Investing Summit


    Jim Chanos - Casino Capitalism: Fraud, Mania & Euphoria On Wall Street | Hedgeye Investing Summit

    Posted: 30 Nov 2020 02:22 AM PST

    The stagnation of Big Tech

    Posted: 29 Nov 2020 07:08 PM PST

    Detailed Analysis on Ant Group

    Posted: 29 Nov 2020 02:01 PM PST

    submitted by /u/countty
    [link] [comments]

    Facebook - The Bear Case

    Posted: 30 Nov 2020 06:40 AM PST

    Libsyn (LSYN): Long Thesis

    Posted: 30 Nov 2020 06:32 AM PST

    Happy hour followed by hangover: UK brewery bubble, 1880-1913

    Posted: 29 Nov 2020 08:10 AM PST

    AirBnB IPO Discussion

    Posted: 29 Nov 2020 04:43 PM PST

    I just got through the S-1 for AirBnB and wanted to share my thoughts and also get other opinions.

    It's pretty obvious that Airbnb is one of the best businesses in terms of economics. They do not own the properties they just work as a "broker" to connect hosts and guests. This business is a lot like the other gig economy businesses except, AirBnB can be profitable because they don't have the same issues that Uber/Lyft have of compensating their drivers. AirBnB hosts get to set their own prices for the property and then Airbnb takes a fee for facilitating the transaction.

    AirBnb is the classic example of a network effect business since the increasing number of hosts on the platform increases the number of guests who use the platform. AirBnb does have some competition but with the size of their network, and as pointed out on the S-1 , the phrase "Airbnb" has become a vocabulary word for many people, I don't see VRBO or other sites posing much of a threat.

    Regulations are a concern as with the other gig economy businesses. Municipalities putting regulations on the amount on nights hosts can lend out there properties to others will negatively impact businesses. However, Airbnb properties is so diversified location wise again I don't see much of a threat.

    The rumored valuation for AirBnb is around 30B. In my opinion this is a bargain price. Using Airbnb 2019 numbers due to covid, Revenue in 2019 was around 4.8B, taking an average P/S of similar gig economy businesses like Uber (6.8), Lyft (4.4), and Grubhub (3.9) gets me a valuation of AirBnB of 24B. However I think Airbnb deserves a much higher multiple because they have a much clearer path to profitability and likely have higher growth long term then all of them. I think an 8-10 P/S is not unreasonable in this market making the valuation between 38-48B

    These are just some initial thoughts and I'd love to hear other people's opinions and have a discussion about the IPO.

    submitted by /u/Comprehensive-Tea775
    [link] [comments]

    No comments:

    Post a Comment