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    Sunday, November 29, 2020

    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing

    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing


    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.

    Posted: 29 Nov 2020 04:11 AM PST

    If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions. If you are going to ask how to invest you should include relevant information, such as the following:

    • How old are you?
    • Are you employed/making income? How much?
    • What are your objectives with this money? (buy a house? Retirement savings?)
    • What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
    • What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors?)
    • Any other assets? House paid off? Cars? Expensive significant other?
    • What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
    • Any big debts?
    • Any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer.

    Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq

    Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    The top 5 books on Investing (recommended by investors)

    Posted: 28 Nov 2020 09:59 PM PST

    I've collected the books recommended by 400+ of the world's most successful people. I then filtered the list by "books on investing only" and looked at the ones recommended by investors.

    Here are the top 5:

    1. Principles - Ray Dalio (18 recommenders)

    Howard Marks (net worth $2.1 billion) said about this book: "I think the guiding quote of the book is [one] from Mark Twain, 'History does not repeat, but it does rhyme.'"

    2. Thinking, Fast and Slow - Daniel Kahneman (12 recommenders)

    Marc Andreessen (net worth $1.5 billion) said about this book: "Captivating dive into human decision making, marred by inclusion of several/many? psychology studies that fail to replicate. Will stand as a cautionary tale?"

    3. The Intelligent Investor - Benjamin Graham (4 recommenders)

    Warren Buffett (net worth $87.4 billion) said about this book: "I obviously recommend, first and foremost, [this book]. Considered to be the 'Bible of Value Investing.'"

    4. Common Sense on Mutual Funds - John Bogle (3 recommenders)

    Warren Buffett (again) said about this book: "Cogent, honest, and hard-hitting. A must read for every investor."

    5. The Little Book of Common Sense Investing - John Bogle (3 recommenders)

    Charlie Munger (net worth $1.9 billion) said about this book: "A useful contribution to [the author's] fellow citizens."

    Again, these are the top 5 investing books recommended by investors.

    There are 8 others investing books in the list, but most of them have 2< recommendations (or were recommended by non-investors) so I didn't include it here. But if you're curious, head over to the list.

    submitted by /u/RCostaReis
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    With Tesla at >$500B and SpaceX last valued this summer at <$50B, do you think there will be 'slingshot' effect for SpaceX valuation based on funds that feel they missed the Elon train?

    Posted: 28 Nov 2020 07:45 AM PST

    I know they are different companies with vastly different business plans, but they are both inextricably linked with Musk. Do you think we will see SpaceX shoot up to > $100B in next funding round based not on its merits exactly, but just based on 'comp' pricing of Tesla?

    One hole in this argument is that Musk is also associated with other fringe companies like Neuralink and Boring Company, and I don't expect those valuations to be correlated with Tesla.

    I should say this is discussion is all just for the entertainment of watching the investment space since none of us can (easily) invest in SpaceX anyway.

    submitted by /u/1e6throw
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    How U.S. Money is created (Monetary & Quantitative Easing)

    Posted: 28 Nov 2020 09:04 PM PST

    I was trying to find a good diagram to show how money is created in the USA (and in fact similarly in Europe and other countries), however despite some time and effort I couldnt find a single diagram that shows the complete cycle from congress, to the feds, to the general public, let alone one that could explain the difference between Monetary Easing & Quantitative Easing. Since I have expertise on the topic, I created one! Enjoy.

    https://jeffreyfreeman.me/how-money-is-created-monetary-and-quantitative-easing/

    submitted by /u/JeffreyFreeman
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    House Will Vote on Bill Restricting Chinese Firms Listed in U.S.

    Posted: 29 Nov 2020 12:53 AM PST

    The House is set to vote on bipartisan legislation that would impose restrictions on Chinese companies listed on U.S. exchanges, including requiring certification that they're not under control of a foreign government.

    The bill's sponsors say the aim is to ensure foreign companies traded in America are subject to the same independent audit requirements that apply to U.S. firms. In doing so, the measure threatens to boot Chinese companies, including behemoths like Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Baidu Inc., out of American stock markets.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-28/house-will-vote-on-bill-restricting-chinese-firms-listed-in-u-s

    submitted by /u/Qohannor
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    // THCB & Microvast Inc - Legit Analysis

    Posted: 28 Nov 2020 09:34 AM PST

    The EV craze is seeing another ops, the reverse merger of Microvast. On Nov 13 a letter of intent (LoI) has been signed related to a business combination with Microvast Inc., a market leading provider of next-generation battery technologies for commercial and specialty use electric vehicles

    This name already came up on WSB gents, so the below it's more of an in-depth DD before the next bell. Good to credit other DD as well for a sort of empirical work in calling the Company's Texas HQ (LoL)

    // What the heck is Microvast?

    Founded by Yang Wu in 2006, Microvast is focused on driving mass adoption EVs and its battery technology boasts best-in-class charging speed, battery life, energy density and safety performance. Key takeaway:

    • In a nutshell: headquartered in Houston (TX, USA), 6 locations worldwide and +2,500 employees. Over 700+ R&D staff (30+ PhDs, and 100+ master degree). Over 426 patents and patent applications which covers the whole Li-ion battery chain, including battery material (cathode, anode, separator, and electrolyte), cell, pack, BMS, powertrain, and related equipment
    • 10 mins, faster than you: the Company has been an innovative industry leader for over a decade and has clear visibility to future growth from its existing pipeline across commercial markets including e- buses, vans, trucks, passenger vehicles, automated guided vehicles, forklifts and mining trucks. They have a battery system that enables 10 minute charging times with limited degradation based on lithium-titanate technology (game-changer, Toshiba apparently the only very-close competitor)
    • Vertical Integration: its strategy extends from core battery chemistry, including cathode and anode materials, electrolyte, and membrane separators, to application technologies including battery management systems (BMS) and other power electronics. Higher quality, lower costs as by integrating the process from raw material to system assembly, Microvast is able to provide customized solutions with reduced project development time and controllable cost
    • Strategic growth: as of October 2020, the Company had more than 40,000 electric vehicles powered by Microvast battery systems operating in 170+ cities within 19 countries, which have accumulated over 4 billion kilometers driving distance without any operation accidents caused by batteries. Plus, an impressive, growing list of global OEM customers, and a strategic partnership with Fiat Power Train Industrial. Bottom line is: real products with real-world adoptions (E-buses in China, London, Germany Singapore), and strong focus on R&D and diversification in terms of regional coverage which makes it less prone to regulatory risks or investigations (e.g. Chinese Probes). Notably, electric buses during the 2018 Olympic Games in South Korea featured Microvast batteries
    • No real financial available (🚩). Nonetheless, take or leave it, Mr Wu (founder and CEO) stated "Microvast expects to generate over $100 million of revenue this financial year. Our potential transition into a public company will help continue to fuel our design and development of market-leading ultra-fast charging, long-life battery power systems"
    • Real production sites and product dev (🟢): Microvast started its Li-ion battery production in Huzhou, China since 2009, automatic cell production line (Phase II) and automatic module production with semi-automatic pack production line (Phase II) in place. Phase I and II in operation since 2009, Phase III started its construction since Mar 2017
    • Clean City Transit project with an ultra-fast charging network: the CCT plan put forward by Microvast is based on fast charging, long life and safe battery technology, and aims to facilitate the electrification of urban transport systems by progressively introducing battery systems while minimizing disruption to urban infrastructure, first to city buses, then to taxis and finally to passenger cars

    // Ok so what should I buy? THCB

    • THCB is a blank-check company initially aiming to bring a cannabis company public. Then, they decided to switch to the EV space following the trends we all know. The Chairman and CEO stated "Microvast has a compelling financial profile, with significant historical revenues as well as projected growth and profitability". Total valuation exceeds $2Bn
    • 75 institutional owners and shareholders that have filed 13D/G or 13F forms with the Securities Exchange Commission. These institutions hold a total of 39,345,200 shares. Largest shareholders include BlueCrest Capital Management Ltd, Mizuho Securities Usa Llc, Bank Of Montreal /can/, Hudson Bay Capital Management LP, K2 Principal Fund, L.p., Cnh Partners Llc, Polar Asset Management Partners Inc., Alberta Investment Management Corp, Sage Rock Capital Management LP, and Periscope Capital Inc
    • In March 2019, the Company consummated its IPO from which it derived gross proceeds of $276,000,000 (including $36,000,000 from the exercise of the underwriters' over-allotment option). Like most blank check companies, the charter provides for the return of the IPO proceeds held in the trust account to the holders of public shares if there is no qualifying business combination(s) consummated on or before a certain date (in this case, December 7, 2020 or above, see below)
    • On December 3, THCB will vote a proposal to extend the date by which it has to consummate a business combination from December 7, 2020 to April 30, 2021
    • EarlyBirdCapital has been the sole book-running manager and underwriter. The previous merger consumed by EarlyBirdCapital are significant. The latest include TTCF (+59%), VLDR (+55%), BWMX (+204%), AVCT (-42%) and (-16%)

    // Don't fuck with me, what are the risks?

    The completion of the transaction is subject to, among other things, the execution of a definitive agreement (which has already taken place for //AvePoint instead, see my other post) approval by the two companies' boards, satisfaction of customary closing conditions and approval of the transaction by each company's shareholders. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that a definitive agreement will be entered into or that the proposed transaction will be consummated on the terms currently contemplated or at all. If a legally binding definitive agreement is entered into, a full description of the terms of the transaction will be provided in a registration statement and/or a proxy statement of SPAC to be filled with the SEC

    // I don't want to read, bottom line? TL;DR

    • Microvast considers itself a leader in developing ultra-fast and long-lasting battery power systems for electric vehicles, around since 2006. Unlike other companies involved in SPAC deals, Microvast has developed an existing product (electric buses during the 2018 Olympic Games in South Korea, Shanghai, London, Germany, China and Auckland)
    • After hours trading on Wednesday 25/11 saw a +12%, while the trading day closed slightly positive with no significant spike. Business combination hasn't been approved, we have just an LoI, which amplifies the risk of a no deal as the two haven't entered a definite agreement
    • +7.40% on Friday 27/11, still very manageable price. I would buy at retracement S1 or R1 for the true autists, monitor the proxy statement vote on Dec 3, forget about it all the way until other rumors about the business combination. Looking at the EV space, after a news I would TP 60% capital invested TP @ +20%. Look at the overall market conditions in Dec/Jan (depending on the business combination) and TP the remaining @ +40% upside

    Disclaimer: all images should be credited to Microvast Inc. or other sources. This does not constitute and has not to be intended as a financial advice or solicitation of any kind. I hold a long position in THCB.

    submitted by /u/Ostoni
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    Are companies like BABA screwed with new U.S. bill to pass?

    Posted: 28 Nov 2020 10:23 PM PST

    Assuming this bill gets passed, are companies like BABA screwed?

    Back in May 22, BABA stated that they would likely be able to comply with U.S. Securities Rules: https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/alibaba-anticipates-comply-u-securities-144449873.html

    The issue that I am seeing is that companies like BABA, NIO, etc. are audited by PwC LLP/PwC China and the PCAOB here in the US are unable to verify their work/procedures. In fact, this is explicitly stated in BABA's annual reports:

    PricewaterhouseCoopers, our auditor, is required under U.S. law to undergo regular inspections by the PCAOB. However, without approval from the Chinese government authorities, the PCAOB is currently unable to conduct inspections of the audit work and practices of PCAOB-registered audit firms within the PRC on a basis comparable to other non-U.S. jurisdictions. Since we have substantial operations in the PRC, our auditor and its audit work are currently not fully inspected by the PCAOB.

    This looks like an issue out of BABA's control -- is this not an issue between PwC China and U.S./PCAOB, not BABA? Thus, I ask again -- are companies like BABA screwed?

    Thoughts/opinions appreciated.

    submitted by /u/Damnifying
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    APXT // AvePoint - Legit Analysis

    Posted: 28 Nov 2020 09:41 AM PST

    Read first, thank me later. AvePoint, the Largest Microsoft 365 Data Management Solutions Provider, Announced a $2bn Merger in a definite business combination with Apex Technology Acquisition Corporation (NASDAQ: APXT). The post-closing entity will be listed on NASDAQ under new ticker AVPT and maintain the AvePoint name. The transaction has been approved by the Board of Directors of Apex, as well as the Board of Directors of AvePoint and it is expected to finalise in Q1 2021

    // About AvePoint

    AvePoint is the largest data management solutions provider for the Microsoft cloud, with over 1,300 employees in 29 global offices. Key takeaway:

    • AvePoint was founded in 2001 as a company to help ease the complexity of SharePoint installations, which at the time were all on-premise. Today, it has adapted to the shift to the cloud as a SaaS tool and primarily acts as a policy layer enabling companies to make sure employees are using these tools in a compliant way
    • Huge diversified blue-chip client base, ~7 million members (as of Sep 30, 2020) with 16k accounts and 25% of Fortune 500 using the company's services. 7M users represent 3% or 250M Microsoft 365 client base with an estimated addressable market of $33 billion by 2022 (according to IDC). The Company sells directly to large and mid-market enterprises, and its solutions are also available to managed services providers on more than 100 cloud marketplaces globally. Regarding Microsoft, the company "Bridges the Gap Between What Microsoft Cloud Offers and What the Enterprise Requires"
    • Compared to other recent SPAC deals and business combinations we just saw, AvePoint has indeed a great track record. Expected 2020 revenues @ USD 148M, a + 26% YoY increase (78% recurring revenues). There are 212 public software companies and AvePoint is one of 5 that is growing at a rate of more than 25% revenue while maintaining a 14% EBIT margin and 30% ARR growth. The company is projecting significant growth for the next two years with revenue estimates of $257 million and ARR of $220 million by the end of 2022
    • Great market trends. Explosive data growth, increasing data regulations, shifts to the cloud, hyper growth of Microsoft Teams were all trends that fuelled the growth prior to the pandemic. The impacts of COVID-19 have greatly accelerated these trends
    • The company raised $200 million in January this year led by Sixth Street Partners (formerly TPG Sixth Street Partners), with additional participation from prior investor Goldman Sachs. The company has raised a total of $294 million in capital before the reverse merger announcement

    // About APXT

    • Outstanding management: led by Oracle CFO Jeff Epstein (*cough* didn't kill himself *cough*) and former Goldman Sachs Head of Technology Investment Banking Brad Koenig. Their combined experience includes more than 100 technology IPOs, Served on 20 boards and advisory boards and saw mergers involving companies such as Microsoft, Oracle, Ebay,, Dell, Yahoo! and Twilio
    • Apex's balance of $352 million plus a $140 million additional private investment will be handed over to AvePoint. Once transaction fees and other considerations are paid for, AvePoint is expected to have $252 million on its balance sheet. Existing AvePoint shareholders will own approximately 72% of the combined entity, with the balance held by the Apex SPAC and the private investment owners. Implied enterprise value of 9.0x 2021E revenue with very attractive valuation multiples compared to peers

    // Advisors

    Evercore Group L.L.C., Citigroup Global Markets Inc., Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, Evercore and Cowen In

    // TL;DR - Bottom line

    • AvePoint is a Market leading SaaS company, with powerful tailwinds for Microsoft Cloud, a high quality and diversified customer base and compelling historical & expected financial results, business model and valuation
    • APEX after hours trading on Wednesday 25/11 saw a +19.20%, while the trading day closed slightly positive with no significant spike. Business combination already approved means less risk on that side (if compared to Tuscan for instance) but very huge upside potential
    • Pre-market stands @ +10%. I would buy R1, forget about it all the way to 80% capital invested TP @ ~+30%. Look at the overall market conditions in Dec and TP the remaining funds @ +60% upside. But I'm less degenerate than you guys are

    Disclaimer: all images should be credited to AvePoint or the above-mentioned sources. This does not constitute and has not to be intended as a financial advice or solicitation of any kind. I hold a long position in APXT (doubled the position @ 14)

    submitted by /u/Ostoni
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    Other than the large cap techs, what are the US companies that are best setting up to grow their business in the developing world?

    Posted: 28 Nov 2020 07:28 PM PST

    Particularly interested in small caps, mid caps, and non-tech large caps. I think it's obvious that the big tech players will be doing plenty of business all around the world.

    It seems that china will be building out a ton of the infrastructure in these economies. But will any American firms be getting in on that action?

    submitted by /u/uwjames
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    Finland’s Solidium quietly raising large stake in Nokia by $30M in past two months, now exceeding 5.2%.

    Posted: 28 Nov 2020 11:14 AM PST

    Solidium is more and more bullish on $NOK for unclear reasons. The latest update on November 25, 2020 shows Solidium holds 292M shares (5.2%) at an average of 3,42 euros for a total of 997M euros. It held 283M shares (5.01%) on September 3, 2020. Prior to that, it held only 3.7% in January 2020.

    The story made multiple outlets when Solidium crossed the 5% threshold to 5.01% in September, sparking speculation of Finland trying to defend against US interest. At that time, Finland said they were done buying, "From a European perspective, it's important that Europe has 5G technology. But Europe isn't an entity who could buy shares," Makinen said. "For the Finnish state, it boils down to this: it's one of the most -- if not the most -- important company in Finland and keeping it Finnish has value to us."

    Solidium won't disclose plans of further purchases, and Makinen said the 5% it now has "feels like a suitable amount."

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-08/finland-is-building-its-nokia-stake-in-response-to-u-s-interest-ketqcpo7 Solidium holdings

    submitted by /u/Mr_Doghouse
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    Question regarding institutional ownership

    Posted: 29 Nov 2020 03:25 AM PST

    Hi folks

    I own a (relatively, for me) large chunk of RKT shares. Over the past month, this share has fallen flat and has seen relatively little price action. However, since this stock has IPO'd in august, institutional ownership has risen to 86% of the float. While this has the delay of 45-90 business days that 13-F filings allow, I have no sign that these institutions have sold so far.

    My question is the following: with only a couple of million shares remaining for retailers, what does this mean for price action? Obviously "smart money" is confident for the years to come and the shares are becoming increasingly scarce meaning supply and demand will drive the price up, but without the volume and retail buyers driving the price up will this happen?

    I thank you in advance for your insights!

    Kind regards.

    submitted by /u/Zealousideal_Site770
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    One of my mates recently asked me: Who should I follow to learn how to invest in stocks? - I had no clue what to say...

    Posted: 28 Nov 2020 01:50 PM PST

    There's so many online courses, youtube gurus, wall street big shots and the list goes on... Combined with the fact that there are fundamentally different approaches to investing and to the general concept of market efficiency.. So how the heck is someone new really supposed to sift through all that different and often conflicting information? The research you need to do in order to find the best learning source is almost as comprehensive as the learning itself at this point..

    Another question is: Does fundamental valid strategies and investment approaches erode (partly) over time due to market/society changes? Take Warren Buffet as an example, he is without a doubt one of the greatest investors to ever live, but is his approach to value investing partly outdated in 2020? I don't know, but one thing is for sure, the market and the companies are very different in 2020 than they were in the majority of "buffets time"

    Anyway just some thoughts, would be interested to hear ppls opinions on this

    submitted by /u/dzambatron
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    Downside to investing mainly in high dividend?

    Posted: 28 Nov 2020 08:19 PM PST

    I've been looking around all over and I can't seem to get a solid answer on this and my friends and I have even discussed this. Let's say you find a well performing mutual fund/ETF or individual stock with a high yield, anywhere from 4-6% or more a quarter. Given you invest $500k (or any other amount scaled), is the math as simple as you realize the yield of $80k-120k pretax without adding to your investment, or are there more things to consider when realizing yield? I don't see any reasons as to why this would not be a suitable replacement to a source of income.

    submitted by /u/aquaninety9
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    Can foreigners with SSN (working in US on visa) buy series-I bonds?

    Posted: 28 Nov 2020 10:02 PM PST

    The treasury direct website (https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibonds_ibuy.htm) mentions that you need to be either a citizen, resident or civilian employee. Does resident here mean tax resident or permanent resident (like a GC holder)?

    submitted by /u/pranavk
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    NBAC vs NBACR

    Posted: 29 Nov 2020 02:28 AM PST

    Okay hear me out, I have a stupid question.

    I want to invest in NBAC which is trading at $17+ a share but their NBACR ticker is trading at $1.2-$1.4 a share. I know there is also a NBACW one for warrants but I don't want to get into this.

    I read that the NBACR is a discounted ticker for shareholders and it's a 10:1 ratio, I don't know if this is correct?

    Meaning if I bought 10 shares of NBACR it's basically buying the stock for $12-$14 instead of NBAC stock at $17

    Can someone clarify and tell me what this NBACR ticker is, I read the "investopedia" on it but I'm too confused to fully understand what it means for the NBAC/NBACR tickers and how I should invest in this company.

    submitted by /u/Earth_Lonely
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    Walmart (NYSE: WMT) - A stock quick review/guide - 2nd Place Winner in the Poll

    Posted: 28 Nov 2020 10:50 AM PST

    Introduction:

    Good morning/evening everyone. The poll closed out (on r/dividends) with Walmart placing 2nd and Honeywell placing last, so these two will get stock reviews, starting today with Wal-Mart.

    Walmart | Save Money - Live Better:

    Sector: Consumer Defensive

    Walmart is America's largest retailer by sales, selling a variety of general merchandise and grocery items. It operates 11,300 stores in the US, which account for approx 76% of sales in fiscal 2019, with Mexico and Central America ~6%, the UK ~6%, and Canada ~4% beings its largest external markets.

    The company operates several e-commerce properties apart from its site, including Flipkart, Jet.com, and shoes.com (it also owns a roughly 10% stake in Chinese online retailer JD.com). As of 2019, e-commerce accounted for only ~5% of fiscal 2019 sales. However the e-sales growth during the pandemic has greatly increased this.

    Walmart has been smart with its acquisitions and partnerships. Walmart has partnerships with Instacard, ThredUp, Shopify, and even Google. The Instacart partnership, together accounts for nearly half of all online grocery sales in 2020. The partnership with Thredup allows Walmart to sell cheaper clothes on its online marketplace, and Shopify allows 3rd party sellers to sell their goods on Walmart's marketplace as well. Lastly, the Google partnership provides customers voice-enabled grocery shopping and likely much more in the future. Walmart's partnerships and acquisitions are taken to further complete with and provide a market alternative to Amazon.

    Strengths:

    - Walmart is the largest retailer in the world providing it unequaled power to leverage their vendor's, suppliers, and manufacturers, keeping prices low with national and private brands.

    - Walmart's cost advantage provides significant barrier to entry and is consistently used to disrupt their competitors.

    - The company is aggressively investing in its e-commerce segment and focused on strategic acquisitions to complete with Amazon. (Mentioned in the last paragraph above)

    - The partnership with Google is has the potential to be particularly strong due to Walmart lacking strong tech exposure.

    - Walmart PLUS memberships, 2 hour delivery, and expansion into drone delivery services.

    Risks:

    - Walmart employs millions people and is facing intense pressure to raise wages. This will have an effect on their profit margins.

    - Amazon. Amazon is much much more than just e-commerce.

    - Walmart's profit margins aren't as wide as they could be due to keeping prices lower, this does bring them more sales revenue, but they have to be very wary of any competitors lowering their prices further to undermine Walmart's position and margins.

    Amazon's threat to many of the traditional brick and mortar industries cannot be understated. Amazon's model is nearly the example of a monopsony, the opposite of a monopoly. They aren't interested in dominating one sector, but ingraining themselves into literally everything. This is why Amazon's model is so disruptive.

    In addition to this, Amazon is often the company that raises the conversation of wage increases to undermine it's competitors. The wage increase to 15$ was much more than them "listening to their critics", it was a move to further pressure any of their competitors whose margins cannot effectively absorb this cost burden. This tactic, along with Walmarts cheap pricing tactics, is what allows Amazon to nab up companies very cheap. (See the whole diapers deal).

    Financial History:

    For Walmart we will be looking at the 5 year financials rather than the 10 year due to their push more recently to get into the ecommerce markets.

    Year Revenue EBITDA Debt Debt / Earning
    2016 $478,615 $33,559 $49,994 ~1.5
    2017 $481,371 $32,884 $45,930 ~1.4
    2018 $495,761 $30,966 $46,470 ~1.5
    2019 $514,405 $32,635 $58,033 ~1.8
    2020 $523,964 $31,555 $72,400 ~2.3

    The revenue is honestly just insane and shows how large Walmart is, plus it is something like 80-90% of the US population lives within 15 miles of a Walmart or something? Anyways, $478 Billion to $523 Billion, about an average increase of 2.2% YoY. Not bad, they are continuing to grow, but just ahead of currently inflation rates. When we look at EBITDA though, their margins are shrinking/lumpy. This, based on the company movement, and from what they say in their 10K, this decrease is largely attributed to them moving into e-commerce. These numbers may be significantly different next year since their ecommerce has been growing pretty significantly during the pandemic, they are estimated at 97% annual growth there. However note that ecommerce, despite this increase is still a very small piece of the company right now, it is going to take awhile for it to have a more significant impact, but the growth is absolutely there.

    The debt is increasing due to acquisitions as well as investment into the ecommerce segment as well. The 2.3x debt/earnings is a bit higher than their historic levels, but again, they are investing right now, and it is still lower than a 3x where it starts to be a bit more concerning.

    Year Cash Flow from Operations Capital Expenditures FCF/E Ratio
    2018 $28,337 $10,051 $16,840
    2019 $27,753 $10,344 $29,444
    2020 $25,255 $10,705 $13,479

    Cash flow from operations is definitely in line with the decreasing EBITDA so that makes sense. Their CAPEX been consistent the last few years, nothing to really note there since the e-market stuff has already been mentioned. Now for the Free Cash Flow, in 2019 there is a significant jump, this is because in 2019 they took on ~$12 Billion in debt load, this was added to the FCF/E for whatever reason, we can subtract it and say that is was more likely ~$15/16/17 Billion, which is in line with the decline. In 2018 and 2020 they were making debt payments, appears to be about 1.5 Billion for each of those years, hence the lower FCF/E there.

    Over the years, in addition to the dividend, they do appear to be using some of their capital to buy back shares, those have decreased from approx 3,200 - 2,850 outstanding over the last 5 years or so. Some would say this is the better way to give back to the shareholders rather than dividends, but others say that it is a way for companies to create synthetic earnings. Take what you will from that. Typically healthy (large) companies will do both dividends and share buybacks, so take what you will from that.

    Let's Take a Look at the Dividend and Price/Value, and Growth:

    Walmart (WMT) is a Dividend Aristocrat that has paid and increased its dividend for 46 consecutive years.

    NOTE: Current for November 2020 and very likely to change.

    Stock Price $151.60
    P/E Ratio 21.89
    Current Annual Payout / Share $2.16
    Yield 1.42% (Based on $151.60 Price Nov 2020)
    10 Yr Div Growth Rate 7.2%
    3 Yr Div Growth Rate 2%
    1 Yr Div Growth Rate 1.9%
    Current EPS Payout Ratio 34.45%

    Strictly from a Dividend Growth perspective, the payout is a bit low and the dividend growth has sharply decreased as the company continues to focus on e-market expansion. In addition to this, the yield on cost is of lower value right now, had the stock been purchased earlier when it's price was closer to 100$, it would have been an excellent buy, at the current price and yield though, there are better prospects.

    From a value perspective... well Walmart over the years has traded closer to an 8x multiple, it is currently over 20x. Based on this alone it would be considered overvalued based on its financials, however one also needs to consider that higher multiples are typically paid for companies with stronger growth prospects...which leads us to growth.

    From a growth perspective, Walmart is a market titan, the growth will be gradual over longer periods of time, but there are many factors that need to be considered from this perspective (as well as the others):

    - Will their e-market investments pay off or will they lose market share due to more competitors in the business and pressure from Amazon?

    - Will the decline of brick and mortar stores offset the earnings from the e-market?

    - How much could they expand their margins by automating warehouses amoung other segments?

    - Do their traditional brick and mortar stores provide Walmart a significant distribution advantage over Amazon? (80-90% of Americans within 15 miles of a Walmart mentioned above)

    - How will Wamart continue to nurture their relationships with Google and Microsoft and will it continue to make smart and strategic acquisitions?

    - How will future government policies and labor unions affect both Amazon and Walmart?

    There are so many different unknowns that need to be considered.

    Closing Thoughts:

    Walmart is an absolute titan of a company that is transitioning to have a significant e-market presence. Compared to Amazon, Walmart is currently the underdog that still needs to be very cognizant of it's other competitors, like Target. However, their recent partnerships and acquisitions have enabled the company to expand significantly online during the pandemic, and unlike Amazon, they have a wider physicals presence, stores that can act as distribution centers amoung other things.

    Ultimately, Amazon is very likely to continue to dominate, however, Walmart does have the potential to start edging their way into the different market segments and start taking pieces of the pie for itself. Amazon is certainly aware of this, hence the reason it pushes timely wage-increases and other policies to undermine its competitors. Government policy is a significant factor to both due to their sheer size and presence.

    At the end of it all, you need to ask yourself, do you think Walmart can continue compete, and continue to work its current business model? Or perhaps you'd take more the side of why not both?

    I hope everyone found this post interesting, please supplement this with your own research. There are always more risks that need to be considered, read opposing views, read up on Target and Amazon. Don't just read whatever will validate a preformed opinion.

    As always, thanks for reading, and have a good day/night!

    submitted by /u/036Gooddaysir036
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    Rookie looking for a help

    Posted: 29 Nov 2020 04:20 AM PST

    Hello, so I want to start trading but I am from EU so therefore I can't use Robinhood or any other big trading company. Is there any legit EU company? If so could you share? I see Capital.com Is it any good? Can't find anything bad about them on internet Anyone had any experience with them?

    submitted by /u/Professional_Fig_435
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    Equinor - A future green giant ?

    Posted: 29 Nov 2020 03:40 AM PST

    Guys. How do you see the future of https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EQNR.OL?p=EQNR.OL (Equinor) ? The Danish company https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ORSTED.CO?p=ORSTED.CO&.tsrc=fin-srch (Orsted) have transformed from a black oil company to a green giant. Back in 2016 it when it IPO on 235 DKK pr share, today its 1126 dkk pr share, it can now also calls it self the most green company in the world https://www.corporateknights.com/reports/2020-global-100/2020-global-100-ranking-15795648/

    So my question is. Can Equinor (former Statoil) perform a similar transformation? Equinor have double up the amount of money than Orsted. Approx. 214,4 billion vs 96,5 billion at the last quarter finances. Recently Equinor said they gonna built the world biggest offshore wind farm. Its also worth taking note, that 67% is owned by the Norwegian state and remember Norwegian is very green it self. I see this as a major plus. Within 9 years, they have pumped everything up in their existing fields and they have recently launched a new climate ambition, where they wanna be C02 neutral in 2050.

    Let me know what you guys think..

    Equinor is currently trading of 146.85 on the Norwegian stock exchange.

    submitted by /u/TightYoghurt
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    Earth2.io

    Posted: 29 Nov 2020 03:34 AM PST

    Afternoon ladies and gents, lately ive been investing a fair chunk of coin into this website called earth2.io which is still in a very premature growth stage at the moment. It seems very promising and ill give you a very quick run down of what it is. Basically earth2.io have digitalised the whole earth into 10m2 tiles. You can buy any tile you want in the world whether it be the Eiffel tower or your local brothel, and when more and more people buy in the same country, the value of your tiles go up.

    So its a simple supply and demand equation although they have also added additional ways you can bring in revenue which you can DYOR, they will be increasing the amount of revenue streams the more its developed. Im checking it every day and the land tax im earning from the tiles ive bought, is constantly going up, and there is more and more people buying up places on earth.

    10 years ago im sure there were many doubters about bitcoin, so imo its worth a cheeky stab cause you just never know.

    Also if you use my referral code you can save 5% on all your purchases for those that are interested. I haven't posted my code to this post to abide by the community rules but you need only ask :)

    submitted by /u/DirtyHazza97
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    Have the rules of the "game" already changed?

    Posted: 29 Nov 2020 03:30 AM PST

    Okay, I am aware that I might get a looot of downvotes on this one. But even if this happens, the idea of this post is to sparkle a good discussion and conversations. And I am just sharing my thoughts. You might also notice that I'm not someone, who has been investing for 20+ years, but rather than 2+.

    Recently I finished reading "The Intelligent Investor". It was the newer version with comments after every chapter, which are referring to "modern day" examples (very helpful). Amazing book, without a doubt. I'd recommend it to everyone. I would even read it one more time at some point.

    In a very very short summary, the book teaches the following things:

    1. Always check the fundamentals: read the yearly reports of a company for at least the last past 5 years. Always read the reports back to forth, because in the back usually they put the information nobody wants to see (debt, losses etc.).
    2. Don't buy a stock only, because it's overhyped.
    3. Don't assume that stocks only go up.
    4. It's much safer to invest in index funds and ETFs than in individual stocks.
    5. It's much safer to invest long-term than short or mid-term.
    6. 6% to 10% returns per year is the key. If you are getting more, you are doing something wrong (because it would be an indication that it's too risky and could crash any moment).

    Etc. etc. you get it.

    While and after reading the book, one question couldn't get out of my mind:

    Is everything in this book still relevant today?

    Doing your own DD and learning the fundamentals of a company is here to stay forever. This is for sure and everybody should learn it.

    But I have to admit, I didn't know anything about the stocks I bought so far. I didn't even check their websites. And I made around 25k since June 2020 (the first time in my life buying a single stock): financial gain which is crucial for my current situation in life. I was always following the "herd-behavior" in the sub-reddits and bought what everyone else bought: NIO, TSLA, PLTR, WKHS, KODAK, KNDI, MODERNA, GME etc. And yes, I paid a few more dollars in fees by selling and rebuying again short-time, in order to secure profits.

    How is this different from the time-period when "The Intelligent Investor" was written?

    I was written in 1949. Back then people didn't have access to relevant information like now. Not even back then, but up until the mid-end of the 90s. Even through the beginning of the 2000s access internet was still being rolled out.

    Using the investment advice from the book "buy once and never sell for the next 40 years" is absolutely relevant for the 40s, 50s, 60s etc. You literally didn't have any other choice, because of the extremely high broker fees and no access to real-time information.

    What about today?

    I have the feeling that the situation today is a bit different. Almost every broker on the internet has little to no fees. You can get real-time alerts by a simple setting in "google alerts". And of course, there is RobinHood, where every kid nowadays can buy and sell as much as he wants. And you have a little device in your pocket, where you can monitor and control your portfolio 24/7.

    I have 2 ETF positions (S&P 500 and MSCI World) and I put monthly 200$ in them. It's been 2 years since I have them and I haven't touched them since. However, the gains are not so impressive compared to the stocks, which are being discussed here.

    I'm not going to sell my ETFs. However, I just have the feeling that I made good money exactly by NOT following the advices from the bible of investing "The Intelligent Investor". And of course, there is no guarantee that this will continue to happen in the future. I am just saying that holding ETFs for 2+ years and doing nothing haven't worked out for me so far, compared to concentrating on single stocks for short- and mid-term.

    Disclaimer: this is not the result of a scientific study and is based solely on my own experiences with investing so far.

    • What are your experiences regarding long vs. short/mid-term?

    • Is there someone here, who is actually still holding an ETF or index fund since 10/20+ years and can share some thoughts on the feeling of having it?

    • Is there someone here, making money "stocks only"?

    • What's your goal when you invest: saving for your retirement or enjoying life now?

    Thank you for the input.

    submitted by /u/Sweet-Zookeepergame
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    How can I invest $500k at the age of 30 to live off of for the rest of my life?

    Posted: 29 Nov 2020 03:24 AM PST

    I own a house insurances and a car and have an emergency fund of liquid cash monthly. I'm trying to figure outhow to take $500k as an example and be able to retire/live off of it till I die. I'm disabled and do not have to work but have utilities insurance housing and food covered.. not sure if this is the rigjt place either..but buy a apartment complex or? I have no idea.. I just wanna take that and turn it into millions... obviously but not sure if that's even possible..thank you if you have any ideas or suggestions ill read them all and look into them all. I truly appreciate any help. Thank you.

    submitted by /u/SSTX9
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    BA or AIR - which is a better buy?

    Posted: 29 Nov 2020 03:10 AM PST

    Usually have a preference for buying US companies rather than a European company, especially one that has to appease different governments.

    But... I think Airbus will beat Boeing over the next few years. What your opinion?

    BA seems to have lost its way, everytime one reads an article online, every program is not going well and delayed. Let alone the embarrassing short comings of the 737. Granted it a big government backed company, but not sure if they will fix themselves in next few years. I think Airbus would be a better buy.

    Don't hold any stock in either company.

    submitted by /u/one8e4
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    The '08 crash

    Posted: 29 Nov 2020 02:06 AM PST

    We have all seen The Big Short, Margin Call, Inside Job, that new documentary with Bush, Bernanke and Greenspan etc. that gives a pretty good picture on what led to the '08-09 crash. But I've always thought that's only half of the picture, and a bit washed out and simplified story of a complex situation in a very complex world.

    One theory I've heard from a trader years ago is something that has always stuck with me and I've never seen or heard anyone mentioning it again. He said something along the lines of (can't remember word for word) - the crash actually happened because the banks had the MBS assets as Tier 1 capital on their books and when the assets got downgraded, they couldn't keep the assets as Tier 1 anymore and that froze up their credit. So they had to sell. And that the actual default rate on mortgages at the time was something like 5%.

    I know in the end it's the same thing, but I've never seen or heard anyone mention that aspect of it, and it makes a lot of sense. I've searched for it on the internet but haven't found a good answer. Can someone with some kind of foot in the door kind of knowledge give an angle on this?

    submitted by /u/BridgeOnColours
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    Portfolio Change Up

    Posted: 29 Nov 2020 01:11 AM PST

    Thinking of changing some things up in my IRA and adding some additional stocks to what I currently have and keep it at 10%. I'm a bit all over the place as I don't know if adding stocks/ETFs or sticking with my TDF would be better. A part of me wants to keep things simple and keep what I currently have and add only Brk.B and JnJ. Just invest in a few things and not so many stocks. Another option is adding ETF's such as FTEC, FDIS, FCOM, ARKK to cover all the big names. Is there anything you would change?

    Schwab 2055 Index TDF - 96%

    Stocks 4%:

    Apple

    Microsoft

    Tesla

    Disney

    Coke

    Future Stocks I'm interested in adding:

    Amazon (Add to this by fractional shares)

    Google (Add to this by fractional shares)

    Netflix

    Brk.B

    Lockheed Martin (LMT) or Raytheon (RXT)

    JnJ

    Visa or Amex

    submitted by /u/tankrat03
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