• Breaking News

    Monday, October 5, 2020

    Value Investing Cloud gaming and the convenience of streaming media

    Value Investing Cloud gaming and the convenience of streaming media


    Cloud gaming and the convenience of streaming media

    Posted: 05 Oct 2020 01:21 AM PDT

    Huntington Ingalls Industries: A discounted defense stock in uncertain times

    Posted: 04 Oct 2020 05:09 PM PDT

    Overview

    • HII is a mid-cap defense contractor that builds destroyers, aircraft carriers, and nuclear submarines for the U.S Navy, U.S Coast Guard, and allies.
    • Over the last few months, the stock has taken a huge hit (-28.22% YTD) due to COVID and a worse than expected earnings miss (-68%) in the most recent quarter.
    • Valuation, healthy fundamentals, and competitive moat suggest ~27% upside to current price.

    Currently America's biggest military shipbuilder, Huntington was spun off Northrop Grumman's shipbuilding segment in 2011 and has steadily grown ever since then. The business comprises of three segments: Ingalls, which produces assault ships, surface combatants, and cutters; Newport, which produces nuclear submarines and aircraft carriers; and Technical Solutions, which is their newest segment, offers consulting services to the DoD and private sector companies.

    Fundamentals

    • Median revenue growth is 5.3%, which is expected considering that 87% of their revenues come from the DoD.
    • Consistent ROIC growth from 11% to 19% over 10 years, compared to industry average of 5.9%.
    • As a mature company, HII has focused on delivering better bottom line growth, with an operating income CAGR of 13.6%.
    • Healthy backlog of $46.5 billion, cash flows should be safe over the next few years.

    Valuation

    • Discount rate: 4.62% given exposure to mostly U.S based customers, low cost of debt.
    • Revenues: Negative growth next year due to the pandemic, adjusted to 3% as defense spending increases. Management has been focusing on expanding the Technical Solutions segment which should increase growth over the long term.
    • Operating margins: Even though product demand was relatively unaffected, Huntington was heavily impacted by the pandemic due to the shipyards only being allowed to operate at 65% capacity, which lowered margins. As they implement safety protocols, operation capacity should be expected to revert to normal levels in a few years.
    • ROIC and reinvestment are maintained at current levels.
    • Value of equity per share is $197.20, while the stock was trading at $144.13.

    HII Valuation

    Risks

    • Election: Defense stocks are almost always volatile during election years, although neither Pres. Trump nor Biden are planning any defense spending cuts, volatility should be expected in the near term.
    • COVID-19: Future lockdowns and outbreaks could affect production and impact margins.

    Thank you for reading.

    Disclaimer: This write up is for informational purposes only and not investment advice.

    submitted by /u/nwatane
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