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    Friday, October 16, 2020

    Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Fundamentals Friday Oct 16, 2020

    Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Fundamentals Friday Oct 16, 2020


    r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Fundamentals Friday Oct 16, 2020

    Posted: 16 Oct 2020 01:06 AM PDT

    This is the daily discussion, so anything stocks related is fine, but the theme for today is on fundamentals, but if fundamentals aren't your thing then just ignore the theme and/or post your arguments against fundamentals here and not in the current post.

    Some helpful day to day links, including news:


    Most fundamentals are updated every 3 months due to the fact that corporations release earnings reports every quarter, so traders are always speculating at what those earnings will say, and investors may change the size of their holdings based on those reports. Expect a lot of volatility around earnings, but it usually doesn't matter if you're holding long term, but keep in mind the importance of earnings reports because a trend of declining earnings or a decline in some other fundamental will drive the stock down over the long term as well.

    See the following word cloud and click through for the wiki:

    Market Cap - Shares Outstanding - Volume - Dividend - EPS - P/E Ratio - EPS Q/Q - PEG - Sales Q/Q - Return on Assets (ROA) - Return on Equity (ROE) - BETA - SMA - quarterly earnings

    If you have a basic question, for example "what is EBITDA," then google "investopedia EBITDA" and click the Investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned.

    Useful links:

    See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Remdesivir 'has little or no effect' on survival, says WHO

    Posted: 16 Oct 2020 05:11 AM PDT

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-54566730

    Anti-viral drug remdesivir has little to no effect on Covid patients' chances of survival, a study from the World Health Organization (WHO) has found.

    Whilst it's manufacturer Gilead ($GILD) have rejected the findings of this study it's likely that it will have a massive impact on the demand for the drug worldwide.

    $GILD is down around 1% in premarket and I imagine will have a solid red day.

    submitted by /u/georgewatso
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    Chinese electric-car bellwether marque Nio narrows gap with Tesla, in sign domestic rivals are gaining ground on US giant

    Posted: 16 Oct 2020 05:11 AM PDT

    https://sg.news.yahoo.com/chinese-electric-car-bellwether-marque-041812262.html

    The company, started by William Li Bin in 2014, delivered 3,226 of its ES6 sport-utility vehicles (SUVs) in September, a year-on-year increase of 87 per cent, according to the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). In August, its sales rose 58 per cent, with the company selling 2,840 ES6s.

    Tesla, on the other hand, led the sector by quite a distance last month, by a margin of 8,103, having delivered 11,329 of the Model 3 cars built at its Shanghai-based Gigafactory 3. In June, however, the gap between Tesla and Nio was wider, at 12,478, with 14,954 Model 3s sold and 2,476 ES6s delivered.

    "Strong sales over the past three months have cemented a belief among China's home-grown new energy vehicle companies that Tesla is not unbeatable," said Gao Shen, a Shanghai-based independent analyst covering the manufacturing sector. "Chinese carmakers, although still lagging behind their US rival, can eventually catch up if they churn out proper and affordable products for domestic drivers."

    submitted by /u/coolcomfort123
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    What’s your biggest regret stock trading?

    Posted: 16 Oct 2020 10:49 AM PDT

    Apologies in advance for a potentially triggering post, but I'm curious. I'd like to know what your biggest regret is while trading stocks. This could be anything, potential gains, losses, options, etc. I'm not talking about just missing out on a certain stock that eventually skyrocketed, more so you had your finger on the trigger to buy or sell a stock and decided not to for whatever reason.

    In my case, I was looking at a company called Afterpay. I was one click away from buying 500 shares around 9.50 back in April, valued at $4,750. I ended up reading an article that put me on the fence, and I lacked the sack to go through with it. Those 500 shares would be valued at $34,375 right now. I still think about from time to time. I'm sure some of you guys have had way worse. I'd like to hear about it!

    submitted by /u/SaveThemTurdles
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    Psycho Market Recap - Friday, October 16, 2020

    Posted: 16 Oct 2020 01:15 PM PDT

    Summary

    Stocks traded mostly sideways today to end the day slightly negative as investors weighed disappointing news on the stimulus front, a challenging reopening with some places being forced to go back on partial quarantine measures, and a US election which is now less than 3 weeks away.

    For the day the SPY was down 0.07%, the QQQ down 0.57%, and the DIA incredibly up 0.37%. This price action, hints to a rotation out of the high flying names and into the reopening of the economy and more industrial names.

    On the COVID front, this week was difficult as cases in the US have topped 8 Million. Furthermore, two of the vaccine frontrunners, Johnson and Johnson and Eli Lilly halted their trials due to safety and quality concerns. Also the CEO of Pfizer today stated that the company would not apply for emergency use authorization of its vaccine any earlier than the third week of November.

    The United States Budget Deficit has increased to a record $3.1Trillion in fiscal year 2020. In comparison to last year's, it has tripled in size, mostly due to the measures put in place in response to the COVID pandemic. As a share of GDP this represents 16%, the largest since WWII, to put this into context in the 2009 crisis it reached almost 10% at its peak. The biggest chunk of spending came as federal spending jumped 47% due to increased unemployment compensation needs. Still Fed Chair Jerome Powell as soon as last week kept warning that recovery will be fragile and more so without additional aid from Congress and added that providing too much stimulus shouldn't be a problem, according to a report by Bloomberg.

    The figures for retail sales for the month of September have been reported today and they show that US retail sales have grown for the 5th month in a row driven by strong spending in clothing, cars and sporting goods, according to a report published by MarketBeat. Sales jumped 1.9% which is more than double of the consensus estimate. "Americans raced to the stores in September," said BMO Capital Markets analyst Sal Guatieri, in a note to investors, adding that they were "buying just about everything in sight, especially clothing."

    In Europe things have been shaky as the U.K. faces resurgence in COVID cases, and a bumpy BREXIT negotiation. Partial quarantine measures have been put back in place, and negotiations between the U.K. and European Union will continue next week. Boris Johnson has told Bloomberg that he believes a deal is unlikely.

    Highlights

    • A new plan was unveiled today to get COVID shots to nursing homes, even though such a vaccine does not yet exist. This led to skepticism from experts. Under the program, trained staff from CVS (CVS) and Walgreens (WBA) would deliver the vaccines and administer the shots.
    • Volkswagen nearing a deal with Carl Icahn to buy Navistar (NAV)
    • Accolade (ACCD) had a price target increase from Morgan Stanley from $37 to $48 at OVERWEIGHT. Very bullish call…
    • Autoliv (ALV) had price target increased by Mizuho from $72 to $95 at BUY
    • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) had a price target increase by the Royal Bank of Canada from $84 to $92 at OUTPERFORM.
    • Blueprint Medicines (BPMC) had a price target increase by Raymond James from $106 to $122 at STRONG BUY.
    • Caterpillar (CAT) had a price target raise from Credit Suisse Group from $159 to $179 at OUTPERFORM. It also had a big upgrade on $WFC Wells Fargo $160 to $220 from EQUAL WEIGHT to OVERWEIGHT
    • Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) had price target raised by KeyCorp and by Credit Suisse Group from $1,300 to $1,4575 at OVERWEIGHT, and $1,250 to $1,500 at BUY, respectively.
    • Cummins (CMI) had target raise by Citigroup $C from $215 to $250 at BUY
    • CrowdStrike (CRWD) had price target raised by Mizuho from $150 to $170 at BUY
    • Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) had price target raised by Piper Sandler, Morgan Stanley (MS) and Wells Fargo (WFC) from $595 to $680 NEUTRAL, $735 to $785 OVERWEIGHT, and $727 to $815 OVERWEIGHT, respectively.
    • Netflix (NFLX) had a price target raise by UBS Group and Morgan Stanley from $575 to $670 at BUY, and $600 to $630 at OVERWEIGHT.
    • NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) with another price target raise, this time by Mizuho from $127 to $152 at BUY. We like this one.
    • ON Semiconductors (ON) had a price target raise by Mizuho from $25 to $30at BUY. We like this one.
    • Pinterest (PINS) had a price target raise by Wells Fargo from $40 to $52 at OVERWEIGHT
    • Starbucks (SBUX) had price target raise by Wells Fargo $WFC from $93 to $98 at OVERWEIGHT
    • Chewy (CHWY) had a huge upgrade from Jefferies Financial from $59 to $100! Its Jeffries so not very influential, but BIG increase!

    "Do, or do not, there is no try" -Yoda

    submitted by /u/psychotrader00
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    ZOOM TO THE DOOM. Why long $ZM has become a pandemic of the investing world.

    Posted: 16 Oct 2020 10:22 AM PDT

    This week, two things happened. Fastly down 30%+ after a revenue warning. And Zoom rose to a record after its Zoomtopia analyst event. The year of 2020 has once again amazed me. I guess I 'm getting old.

    Fastly reports preliminary Q3 revenue 70-71 mil, which is 5.6% lower than estimated 74.7 mil (Bloomberg number). This 5.6% drop in revenue triggered a 31% selloff, but I was not surprised by that. I knew this would happen one day. As I quote a Bloomberg article "Fastly's slowdown highlights the precariousness of lofty software valuations. Massive share plunges are the price paid when these businesses fall short of perfection." Exactly, a perfect dream is destined to end in our imperfect world.

    Even though the FSLY lesson has come out, investors are not learning anything at all.

    Zoomtopia

    ZM's meteoric rise surprised me. Ahead of the Zoomtopia event, on Monday, ZM's price was 491.54. Today it traded at a high of 563, a 14%+ rise. So what happened on the Zoomtopia event that has caused such a ZM euphoria?

    ZM announced a couple of new features. One is the "OnZoom" , which allow users to sell tickets for their Zoom calls, so they can teach classes, hold concerts etc. for a profit. Basically, ZM is moving into the paid live streaming business. The other new thing is "Zapps", apps that run inside Zoom. For example Slack, now you no longer need to open Slack in parallel to Zoom, you can simply use Slack inside Zoom (with reduced functionality). So basically, this saves you just a couple mouse clicks when conferencing. These announcements are certainly positive. The company would do better with them than without. But just how much better? Just a reminder, no matter how fancy the new features are, if they don't help make money, they would not matter at all. So let's think about how much money will these new features help Zoom make.

    Long $ZM has become a new pandemic

    On Wednesday, I was watching the analyst's call, via the Zoom link they provided. There were quite several ass-kissing questions, like what is Zoom's culture, philosophy, futures of our world blah blah. One practical question finally appears, when an analyst asked about how Zoom plans to monetize on the new OnZoom and Zapps feature. And the CFO's answer was, "This is new. We are not sure. We are looking at it. We will probably find out in next several quarters." FYI, Zoom is not taking a cut from the ticket sales. (https://support.zoom.us/hc/en-us/articles/360050178332#h_01EMH8B5ND84F6XSSTPVKY75E7) There is no evidence Zoom will take a cut in the future. There is no evidence Zoom will charge third-parties to develop Zapps either.

    Hmm, Ms. CFO, you are not telling us much, How much money on earth are your new features worth?

    When the profitability is an uncertainty to the company's own insider CFO, it has not been an uncertainty to the financial analysts. A slew of analysts upgraded their target prices. RBC upgraded from 450 to 600. D.A Davidson upgraded from 457 to 600. And Berstein, they upgraded from 228 to 612, a stunning 384$ per share increase, or a 75 billion dollar increase in valuation (ZM has about 200mil shares outstanding). Ok folks WOW. In a professional analyst's opinion, An online ticketing feature, plus an app feature that pretty much only saves you a couple of mouse clicks, are worth 75 billion USD. Hey, remember how much money Oracle offered to buy TikTok? 20 billion. This values TikTok at about $50b (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bytedance-tiktok-exclusive-idUSKCN24U1M9) One Zoomtopia event, just pumped ZM's valuation by 1.5x TikTok.

    If Ms. CFO does not tell us how much more money ZM expect to make. Let's make some comparisons with existing, well-established companies doing similar business. Paid online courses website Udemy, one of the biggest, is valued at 2 billion. (https://techcrunch.com/2020/02/19/online-learning-marketplace-udemy-raises-50m-at-a-2b-valuation-from-japanese-publisher-benesse/) Popular streaming services like Twitch, is worth 15 billion. (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/16/amazon-media-assets-worth-500-billion-almost-as-much-as-aws-needham.html#:~:text=To%20get%20to%20%24500%20billion,says%2C%20is%20worth%20%24127%20billion). How can a feature in its infancy, increase ZM's valuation by more than the total worth of huge established companies? Zoom's uncertainty has become better than other company's reality.

    If you say these companies are not comparable to Zoom's new ticketing feature, I've got another example. Facebook added ticketed live streaming feature on Aug 14 (https://www.hypebot.com/hypebot/2020/08/facebook-adds-ticketed-live-streams-waives-all-fees.html), pretty much exactly what ZM is offering, And last time I checked, FB has more users than ZM? FB stock dropped on Aug 14 and 15. So why should ZM rise 14%?

    There are also more rational and skeptical analysts apart from the Bernstein dude. Credit Suisse's new target stands at 315$ and Morgan Stanley at 350$. (tbh, I have not even heard of Bernstein or DA Davidson before. Morgan and Credit Suisse of course everybody knows). But nobody is mentioning these. People only believe in what they want to believe (confirmation bias). Zoom has become their religion. From twitter to stocktwits. the story of "Zoom to the moon" is getting infectious. Long Zoom has become a new pandemic.

    Tesla is saving the earth. Is Zoom too?

    My story is not over. The massive increase in ZM's valuation is not the only absurd thing here, its valuation before Zoomtopia, was already insanity. Zoom's FORWARD P/E ratio is at 211.9 (Bloomberg EEO next 4 qtrs est), and trailing P/E ratio is 518.47. In case you do not know what forward P/E ratio means, it is the P/E ratio for the next 4 quarters based on earnings projections, so it has accounted for the benefit ZM received from the pandemic. Wait a sec. Tesla's FORWARD P/E is only 160.58. ZM's forward P/E is higher than Tesla? Our world is warming, is on fire, and EV is saving the earth by reducing fossile fuel consumption. Is Zoom, a video conferencing company, going to save our planet too? Plus, Tesla's P/E is high because its growth is yet to be realized. EV sales are expected to explode over next few years. Most of ZM's potential has already been realized from the pandemic. How will ZM's growth continue to explode after the pandemic is over?

    Or do you really believe in a permanent WFH world? Do you really believe in a world where everybody is at home, downtown area is empty, offices are all vacant? There are success stories in battling Covid, like China or Singapore, where most people are back in office already. Also today Pfizer just announced its vaccine may be put in use as early as late November (https://www.wsj.com/articles/pfizer-could-apply-for-emergency-use-of-covid-19-vaccine-by-late-november-11602842906) But apparently, market thinks this has no impact on Zoom at all. It's true that some big tech firms can afford to have employees work permanently from home. But many of them do not use Zoom. Microsoft and Google both use inhouse tools (Team and Duo) and ban Zoom. Even if they WFH forever, does it benefit ZM? Moreover, customers with fewer than 10 employees represent 36% of ZM's Q2 revenue (Goldman Sachs research). Even if tech WFH forever, do you think teams smaller than 10 will too? How does ZM retain this 36% of earnings?

    ZM, the next FSLY?

    One last note on the numbers. Before FSLY's 30% tumble, its price to sales ratio was 35. Nasdaq index's average P/S ratio is 5.1. ZM today is at 54.59 (Bloomberg BEST_PX_SALES_RATIO). ZM is going to report Q3 earnings on Dec 6. It's estimated EPS is 0.753, a 736.32% YOY growth. If similar to FSLY, its revenue misses by 5.6%, do we expect a 31% drop too?

    Here's my question to my dear r/stocks friends. When people finally realize the future is not that rosy for ZM. How much is it going to tumble?

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    Workhorse Closes $200M from Lenders

    Posted: 16 Oct 2020 06:53 AM PDT

    Workhorse WKHS

    https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/workhorse-closes-200-million-financing-from-institutional-lenders-301153780.html

    I take this as really good news. Does taking out $200M financing and hiring spree signal anything for the USPS deal? they wouldn't make an risky move like that to acquire LT debt unless the deal was a sure thing, no?

    submitted by /u/offcoloroncolor
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    Here is a Market Recap for today Thurs, Oct 15, 2020. Please enjoy!

    Posted: 15 Oct 2020 02:45 PM PDT

    PsychoMarket Recap - Thursday, October 15, 2020

    Stocks fell once again today for the third straight day of losses, as market participants consider a disappointing unemployment report, new virus-related restrictions in Europe, and dimming prospects for additional stimulus before the november election

    The Nasdaq finished 0.67% down. The S&P 500 (SPY) fell a modest 0.11% and the Dow finished the day 0.04% down. Stocks were able to mostly recover from the deeply red open.

    The Labor Department released their weekly unemployment, which showed that an additional 898,000 new claims were submitted last week, way above the consensus estimate of 830,000. This is the highest number since Aug. 22 and another clear sign that the labor market continues to struggle to recover in this pandemic-riddled economy as cases rise and worries increase over a renewed wave in the fall and winter. The number represented a gain of 53,000 from the previous week's. The economy has recaptured some 11.4 million positions, or about half those who were sidelined. The unemployment rate has come down to 7.9% but is still more than double its pre-pandemic level.

    After Europe seemed to somewhat tame the virus that ravaged the countryside early in the year, the number of newly confirmed infections are skyrocketing, prompting fears of a second-wave and host of new restrictions. Socialising indoors will be banned in London, and a curfew will be imposed in nine French cities. Poland designated red zones where schools and gyms will close, including in the capital Warsaw, and the Czech Republic said it was building its first field hospital for coronavirus patients. Schools in Italy's southern Campania region, including the city of Naples, are to close for two weeks, as the country recorded its highest daily rise of cases since mass testing began. Coronavirus is the fifth-leading cause of death in Europe, where a threshold of 1,000 deaths daily has been passed, the WHO's European director, Dr Hans Kluge, told a news conference today. In the United States, new cases per day are on the rise in 44 states, with the biggest surges in the Midwest and Great Plains, where resistance to wearing masks and observing other social distancing practices has been running high. Deaths per day are climbing in 30 states, according to data collected from John Hopkins University.

    Market participants continue to be fixated on whether more stimulus, which lawmakers and economists say is necessary, will be passed before the November election. Messaging from top officials regarding stimulus has been inconsistent, with Pres. Trump first said he was directing his representatives to halt negotiations before doing a 180 degree turn. Yesterday, Mnuchin conceded that "getting something done before the election and executing on that would be difficult, just given where we are in the level of details". Today, in response to being asked if he supported stimulus, Pres. Trump told Fox Business, "I would. Absolutely I would. I would say more. I would go higher. Go big or go home, I said it yesterday." Needless to say the inconsistent messaging heightened volatility in the market as investors have a heightened sense of risk. Additional relief is viewed by many (including Jerome Powell) as a necessary propellant to maintain and speed up economic recovery.

    Highlights

    • US regulators (FDA) approved yesterday afternoon the first treatment for Ebola Virus from Regeneron (REGN). This is the same company that made the treatment that President Trump received while being treated for COVID-19 about two weeks ago.
    • US jobless claims reached 898,000 which was higher than the estimates of 830,000.
    • Pacific Gas & Electric (PCG) has cut power to around 33,000 customers to mitigate risk of starting a wildfire citing dry and windy conditions renew threat of fires.
    • Boyd Gaming (BYD) had a price increase by Deutsche Bank from $27 to $38 at BUY. Big increase in analyst sentiment, the stock trended upward today.
    • Datadog (DDOG) had a price target raise from Mizuho from $116 to $125 at BUY. It opened low, but recovered throughout the day. Stock has been a monster lately.
    • Dell (DELL) had a price target raised by JPMorgan Chase (JPM) from $70 to $80 at OVERWEIGHT.
    • Goldman Sachs (GS) had price targets raised by Citigroup (C), and Barclays from $285 to $300 at BUY, and $253 to $270 at EQUAL WEIGHT, respectively. Stock faded towards the end of the day, nevertheless bullish analyst actions.
    • Microsoft (MSFT) had a price target raised by Mizuho from $240 to $255 at BUY. (looking at this one for a possible bounce tomorrow)
    • Netflix (NFLX) had a price target raise by KeyCorp from $590 to $634 at OVERWEIGHT
    • Service Now (NOW) had a price target raised by Mizuho from $500 to $560 at BUY. This is the third price boost this week, this stock is a monster!
    • Peloton (PTON) had a price target raised by BofA Securities (BAC) from $116 to $150 at BUY. stock is at All Time Highs today... insane, an absolute monster!
    • Replimune Group (REPL) had price target increase by BMO Capital, SVB Leerink, and Barclays from $40 to $51 at OUTPERFORM, $27 to $44 at OUTPERFORM, and $29 to $50 OVERWEIGHT, respectively. This thing is squeezing, up 60% in the last two days!
    • Take-Two (TTWO) had a price Target raise by Morgan Stanley from $176 to $185 at OVERWEIGHT
    • United Health (UNH) had a price target raise from Piper Sandler, Raymond James, SVB Leerink, Oppenheimer and Royal Bank of Canada. On average its a $380 price target at OUTPERFORM, this has been a monster stock!
    • Zoom Video Communications (ZM) had myriad of price target increases, including from Wells Fargo (WFC), Royal Bank of Canada, Piper Sandler, $375 to $465 EQUAL WEIGHT, $450 to $600 OUTPERFORM, and $411 to $501 NEUTRAL. Very bullish analyst action.
    • Morgan Stanley (MS) reported better-than-expected results in Q3 earnings. Stock was 1.26% up at the time of writing
      • EPS of $1.59 vs $1.28 estimate
      • Revenue of $11.6 billion vs $10.61 estimate
    • Charles Schwab (SCHW) reported slightly better-than-expected earnings. Stock outperformed the market, up 3.96% at the time of writing.
      • EPS of $0.51 vs $0.47 estimate
      • Revenue of $2.45 billion v $2.43 billion estimate
    • Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) reported much better-than-expected earnings, especially in EPS. Stock was 0.9% down at the time of writing.
      • EPS of $0.98 vs $0.92 estimate (wow!!!)
      • Revenue of $12.4 billion vs $11 billion Edit: figures on TSM are now correct

    "Life is not about finding yourself. Life is about creating yourself" -George Bernard Shaw

    submitted by /u/psychotrader00
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    GameStop to profit for every digital sale from "their" Xbox consoles

    Posted: 16 Oct 2020 09:14 AM PDT

    According to GameReactor in the UK:

    As video games spending transit from physical to digital, more and more videogame shops are closing around the world. The likes of GameStop, EB Games and Game not only face the competence of online distribution but also from online shops that do not have to pay for the rent of a fancy store in a mall or at street level.

    On the opposite side, platform owners are profiting more than ever from a model that reduce publishing costs and increase their revenue share. It's in their hands to flip the coin, and Microsoft just showed the way.

    Microsoft and GameStop closed a historic deal that let the retailer participate in the digital market from every Xbox console sold at GameStop stores. This is part of a multi year deal agreement by both companies signed a few days ago, but it wasn't until Wednesday when people realised the implications.

    Domo Capital Management, a small stockowner of GameStop, put some light about it in a tweet:

    Today $GME confirmed with u/DOMOCAPITAL that the agreement with $MSFT includes revenue sharing on all downstream revenue (i.e. digital downloads and digital content) from any device that GameStop brings into the u/Xbox ecosystem. GameStop now meaningfully participates in digital.

    submitted by /u/immasebe
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    What is the truth behind the statement that very few people are able to beat the market?

    Posted: 16 Oct 2020 12:46 PM PDT

    Because Reddit seems to be good at picking out winners not only in the short term, but in 4-5 year time spans as well… I've seen a lot of topics from 2016-2017 where people were bullish on companies like AMD (40x), MSFT (4x), NVDA (20x), TSLA (9x). Some were bullish on failures like GE, and Intel but even if you picked those as well, you still would've been up tremendously over the market.

    The stocks that Reddit were hyping 4-5 months ago and are still hyping up today, NET (1.8x), DKNG (2.5x), SQ (3x), ARKK (2x) have also done very well… And it's not like these are short term stocks either. They all have huge growth opportunities 5-10 years down the line.

    In contrast on average it takes 7 years for an S&P 500 ETF to 2x. Statistically, it would take 7+ years for my investment in VTI to reach the same % gains as the investment I made in DKNG 5 months ago. Furthermore you'd have to wait 20+ years just for VOO and VTI to reach 8x valuations. Most of us would be in our late 40s, or early 50s by then.

    As a young person I'd rather take a medium risk, high reward opportunity, than a very-low risk low-reward opportunity.

    And yet over and over again, we're told that very few people are able to beat the market, and you're better off just dumping everything into an S&P 500 index fund and holding. But the more I lurk on this subreddit and various other investing communities, the more I question that statement.

    I'm thinking many people underperform the market because they make emotional decisions. They try to time the market, sell innovative companies for a measly 1.5x gain only to buy back again at a higher price due to fomo, liquidate everything on the slightest hint of bad news and so forth. Just like the statistic that got posted, where the Magellan Fund averaged 20% / year over 10 years, but the people who bought into the fund actually had a net negative. And overall there are far more investors like that in general rather than people who know to just buy and hold onto a stock with long term prospects.

    submitted by /u/Okmanl
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    CCL’s German Brand AIDA to resume cruises in Italy starting Saturday.

    Posted: 16 Oct 2020 11:23 AM PDT

    Big news for $CCL Carnival Cruise Lines!

    "After the return of Carnival's (CCL -0.1%) Italy-based Costa Cruises in early September, Germany-based AIDA Cruises from the company will resume operations this Saturday, Oct. 17.

    These resumption sailings are part of a gradual, phased-in approach by Carnival to restart operations regionally with limited itineraries, adjusted passenger capacity and enhanced health protocols.

    The first cruise for the brand is set to begin Oct. 17, with voyages offered weekly until Nov. 28."

    submitted by /u/XIST-R-2-S
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    Midday Market Synopsis - Friday, Oct. 16, 2020

    Posted: 16 Oct 2020 10:17 AM PDT

    Little late today, my bad, it's Friday..

    US equities higher: Dow +0.72%, S&P 500 +0.35%, Nasdaq +0.11%, Russell 2000 +0.07%

    • US equities higher in Friday midday trading, though off best levels. Major indices on track to post third consecutive week of gains. Healthcare, industrials, materials among the outperformers. Tech, consumer discretionary lagging. Energy trailing. Treasuries unchanged to a bit weaker. Dollar slightly lower vs euro but little changed on yen cross. Gold down 0.2%. WTI crude down 0.6%, but well above worst levels.
    • Fairly quiet from a headline perspective. On politics, the dueling town hall events featuring Trump and Biden received a lot of attention but seem unlikely to have any impact on the race. Fiscal stimulus hopes hanging on by just a thread at this point after McConnell highlighted Senate Republican resistance (though Mnuchin told Pelosi Trump would lean on McConnell if they reach a deal). Press has also remained focused on uptick in coronavirus cases. Big beat from September retail sales on headline, sales ex autos, and control group. October Michigan consumer sentiment in line though September industrial production missed. Flow data highlighted continued exodus from money market funds.
    • PFE-US said EUA for its vaccine could come in mid-November. Bloomberg said BA-US 737 MAX declared safe to fly by Europe's aviation regulator. ISRG-US beat and saw a procedure recovery though also highlighted lingering uncertainty surrounding the pandemic. WHO study yesterday said GILD-US 's remdesivir had little effect on coronavirus mortality. BK-US investment management results were strong YNDX-US and terminated takeover talks with Tinkoff Group. DFS-US CEO warned on white-collar job losses. JBHT-US report failed to meet elevated expectations. HPE-US guided FY21 EPS above the Street at its analyst day.

    Notable Gainers:

    • +28.2% CIT-US (CIT Group): To combine in all-stock merger with FCNCA-US ; CIT holders will receive 0.062 shares of FCNCA per share of CIT, representing an ~11% premium to Thursday's close; deal expected to close in Q1'21 and combined company to trade as FCNCA.
    • +22.8% NAV-US (Navistar): Traton agreed to acquire the portion of the company it doesn't own for $44.50/sh; Traton said this week it would offer $43/sh in best and final offer; new offer nearly matches Tuesday closing price before Traton's Wednesday offer.
    • +14.2% BMI-US (Badger Meter): Q3 earnings, revenue beat; noted resiliency in municipal water market with solid y/y growth, growth in operating margin, solid backlog as Covid has not caused cancellations, particular interest in remote-read offerings.
    • +3.5% ALLY-US (Ally Financial, Inc.): Big Q3 EPS beat on lower provisions, better NII and NIM and fee income upside; expenses missed; company highlighted highest quarterly volume in auto finance in five years and lowest retail auto net charge-off rate since 2014; Street takeaways positive with focus on better credit and revenue trends.
    • +3.5% CHWY-US (Chewy, Inc.): Upgraded to buy from hold with price target raised after coverage assumption at Jefferies; sees better than average growth rates in next five years due to higher quality pet care preferred by millennial and GenZ households; pet care market resilient with solid growth and supported by growing pet ownership.
    • +3.0% TDC-US (Teradata): Said it expects Q3 recurring revenue to exceed its previous guidance; update comes ahead of earnings on 5-Nov; also announced departure of Chief Revenue Officer.
    • +2.8% BA-US (Boeing): The EU Aviation Safety Agency's executive director told Bloomberg he is satisfied changes made to the 737 MAX have made it safe enough to return to operation; final directive to be issued next month followed by public comment period.
    • +2.5% PFE-US (Pfizer): CEO released open letter saying company may know whether its Covid vaccine candidate is effective by end of October; added it could apply for FDA emergency use authorization by third week in November.
    • +1.7% COST-US (Costco): Assumed buy vs prior hold at Jefferies; highlighted widening leadership moat; also noted upside optionality surrounding digital underdevelopment; sees extended period of elevated MSD+ comp and new customer acquisition potential.

    Notable Decliners:

    • -19.1% TACO-US (Del Taco Restaurants): Q3 EPS beat on margin upside; company had preannounced a better-than-expected 4.1% comp increase; some disappointment with QTD comps running +LSD%; some focus on strength in franchisees vs softer performance at company stores (where menu pricing has seen a step down); stock a big outperformer into the print.
    • -8.2% JBHT-US (JB Hunt Transport): Q3 earnings missed; OR higher than consensus; Intermodal segment volumes negatively impacted by rail congestion and service issues; higher intermodal load growth more than offset by decline in revenue per load.
    • -7.7% SLB-US (Schlumberger): Q3 earnings and revenue beat on Production strength but Reservoir Characterization, Drilling segments weaker; positive on NA well completion but sees overall flattening in NT activity outlook.
    • -6.4% MRTN-US (Marten Transport): Q3 earnings and revenue beat; OR better than consensus; highlighted improvement in truckload miles per tractor; analysts noted elevated expectations and suggested driver constraints may restrict growth opportunities.
    • -4.2% CFG-US (Citizens Financial Group): Q3 earnings missed; NII/NIM light though fee income helped by record strength in mortgage banking; provision, NCOs higher than consensus (cited a mall REIT and a metal/mining one); sees Q4 NII stable and NIM down LSD/MSD.
    • -2.8% CMC-US (Commercial Metals): Downgraded to neutral from buy at BofA Securities; cited valuation after strong run; cautious on softer non-residential outlook (amid CMC's new rebar capacity), mixed guidance comments, and limited catalysts ahead.
    • -2.5% KSU-US (Kansas City Southern): Q3 EPS beat, revenue slightly missed; operating ratio beat; raised FY20 EPS guidance, though operating ratio guide at low end of 60-61%, up from Q3 58.8%; analysts positive especially given headwinds through quarter, including hurricanes,, though some note of high expectations into print.

    11:49:54 AM CDT on 16 Oct '20

    submitted by /u/spacej3di
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    Buy Nio Stock, Analysts Keep Saying. Why One Calls It 'a Long Term Winner.'

    Posted: 16 Oct 2020 10:57 AM PDT

    Stock in Chinese electric-vehicle maker NIO continued its epic run on Thursday, after another analyst recommended buying the shares.

    NIO shares (ticker: NIO) were up 5.9% in afternoon trading. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average, for comparison, were near the break-even line.

    Hong Kong based Citigroup analyst Jeff Chung upgraded shares to the equivalent of Buy from Hold. His price target went to $33.20 from $18.10. Chung upgraded shares after his work suggested NIO sales had picked up in recent weeks.

    The stock rose almost 23% on Wednesday following an upgrade from J.P. Morgan analyst Nick Lai, who wrote that he thinks EV penetration in China is set to quadruple between 2020 and 2025. He called NIO "a long term winner in the premium space." His price target is $40 a share.

    Lai and Fang aren't alone in their increasing bullishness. NIO stock has been upgraded to Buy four times since June.

    However, shortly after issuing a Buy recommendation, analyst Fei Fang at Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock to Hold and then to Sell. The reason he turned bearish was stock-price appreciation. Shares rose almost 90% while he rated them Buy.

    Fang was being disciplined about price targets and valuation. Still, NIO stock kept rising after the downgrade to Sell. Shares are up 150% since then and hit a 52-week intraday high on Thursday, trading at $29.30 before settling back down to around $28.

    The stock run has been something to behold. Shares are up almost 600% year to date. But the gains are attracting more Buy recommendations. Roughly 65% of analysts covering the stock rate shares Buy. At the start of the year that number was closer to 15% -- when the stock traded for $4.02.

    All EV stocks have done well in 2020. Stock in Tesla (TSLA), the EV behemoth, for instance, is up 435% year to date, making Elon Musk's company the most valuable auto maker in the world.

    Analysts are having a hard time keeping up with EV stocks such as NIO. Even though a majority recommend the stock, only a couple of price targets are still above where the stock trades now.

    Source: Barron's Article

    submitted by /u/Brothanogood
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    The reason for Fastly reduced usage.

    Posted: 16 Oct 2020 10:22 AM PDT

    This is what Fastly said:

    "Due to the impacts of the uncertain geopolitical environment, usage of Fastly's platform by its previously disclosed largest customer did not meet expectations, resulting in a corresponding significant reduction in revenue from this customer,"

    I have read numerous articles but no article clearly understands what is that geopolitical issue is. Yes some articles predicted correctly that the largest customer is TikTok. The geopolitical issue is India banning TikTok. TikTok usage reduced significantly because India's user base was huge which in turn caused the reduced usage of Fastly.

    This is a permanent thing as India won't allow TikTok back. Fastly needs to find more new businesses.

    submitted by /u/TacticalWolves
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    DD focused subreddit

    Posted: 16 Oct 2020 12:55 PM PDT

    Is there, or would there be interest in a DD focused subreddit?

    As much as I like the current subreddits I am a part of I don't like sitting through beginner questions and speculation with no DD. I think a subreddit for simple stuff is important but I also feel it could be beneficial for a more technical focused subreddit which removes speculation. I would like to guage interest in both the subreddit itself and mods to help me out if it has enough interest.

    submitted by /u/Japanda23
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    Peix earnings Nov 5. What are your thoughts?

    Posted: 16 Oct 2020 12:40 PM PDT

    • Peix went from 30 cents to 10$ in 4 months.
    • Earnings coming out soon (Nov 5). Price target 16$. Current price is 10$
    • Peix is a ethanol/renewable energy stock.
    • Ethanol is essential for hand sanitizers.
    • I've been told at 3$/5$/8$ that this wouldn't go up - but here we are (10$).
    • destroyed their q2 earnings
    • 7.7% insider holding
    • 650 million market cap
    • 63.5 M outstanding shares

    What are your thoughts?

    submitted by /u/sicklynsaucy
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    What is your take on VLO long and short term?

    Posted: 16 Oct 2020 09:49 AM PDT

    I've been watching it for a while now and I really like the price that it's at. The dividend is nice and also I like where the PE ratio is at. I know the oil sector is a bit whacky right now with XOM tanking and news surrounding it's future but I feel like VLO would be one to weather out the storm

    My short term play with this would be to buy in at around the current price but not reinvest the dividends just in case it encounters trouble. Basically I would swing trade it

    Also it's 5Y performance has me weary about it

    Thoughts?

    submitted by /u/JustCantGoTitsUp
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    HEADS UP: Eargo ($EAR) launches their IPO today.

    Posted: 16 Oct 2020 02:10 AM PDT

    It's your boy here that brought you news of the Array IPO yesterday that went up up up!

    Eargo ($EAR) is the first and only virtually invisible, rechargeable, in-canal, FDA regulated hearing aid. They just up-sized the IPO to $18 a few hours ago and there's great support for this to grow. J.P. Morgan and BofA Securities acted as lead book-running managers and as representatives of the underwriters for the offering, Wells Fargo Securities and William Blair acted as co-managers for the offering. The San Jose, CA-based company was founded in 2010 and booked $47 million in sales for the 12 months ended June 30, 2020

    Basically, it's time to make some money off this boomer tech and if you're still not convinced, watch their commercial on YouTube (https://www.youtube(X)com/watch?v=xwSqSITCLCk).

    https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/10/15/2109609/0/en/Eargo-Inc-Announces-Upsized-Pricing-of-Initial-Public-Offering.html

    submitted by /u/TheLastRedditAcct
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    If you had $10,000 to invest which clean energy ETF would you invest in and why?

    Posted: 16 Oct 2020 10:24 AM PDT

    The contenders are ICLN, QCLN, and ACES

    ICLN - Follows the S&P Global Clean Energy Index and is diversified across the whole globe but that also means more international tension. This ETF has an ER of 0.45%.

    QCLN - Follows the NASDAQ Clean Edge Green Energy Index and is also globally diversified but a LOT more US focus. So far, this ETF has the best historical performance. This ETF has an ER of 0.60%

    ACES - Follows the NACEX Index and is diversified across North America. This ETF/Index is unique because it focuses only on Canadian and American Clean Energy Companies. This ETF is the 2nd best performer out of this list. This ETF has an ER of 0.65%.

    submitted by /u/Naitor295
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    What you guys think about NIO?

    Posted: 15 Oct 2020 10:33 PM PDT

    So I have about 1k sitting on my account. I'm thinking about long term and NIO is at $28 right now. Should I put all 1k on it? Where do you guys see NIO 10 years down the road. I have 2 shares of Tesla as well.

    submitted by /u/pablizo03
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    What's your potential tenbagger?

    Posted: 16 Oct 2020 12:22 AM PDT

    I did some research into older posts asking this very question (about a year old).

    https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/eb138y/whats_your_potential_tenbagger_stock/

    https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/a63gs2/next_10_bagger_50_100/

    Stocks that came up and their developments this year: (I only included stocks that had some argumentation behind them and where that argumentation was not crushed by other redditors)

    Tesla +437 %

    Digital Turbine +433 %

    Huya +23 %

    Crispr +64 %

    Edit +9 %

    AMD +81 %

    CGC -15 %

    Xair +16 %

    AVDL -29 %

    ENPH-3b +324 %

    Average: + 134,3 %.

    I would say this is more than a satisfying profit for not even a full year. Because of this, I am asking you, what is your most likely tenbagger at this point? Please give at least one argument for it.

    submitted by /u/WestElephant
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    Strategies when super bullish on a stock?

    Posted: 16 Oct 2020 01:25 PM PDT

    Hello community,

    I'm trying to understand trading strategies when I'm super bullish on a stock long term.

    1. I can buy the actual stock and hold and sit back. But is there anything better I can do?
    2. How about buying long options call? I can buy a long option call at the money but then I understand that if I the stock goes up and I am deep in the money there is only intrinsic value to the option.
    3. Selling put options seems like a good idea too because I'll get the premium and hopefully the option is never exercised and expires worthless for the buyer.

    Still don't understand which one is a better idea. Can you guys give some input please?

    submitted by /u/kartschaps
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    Is Dana Incorporated the darkhourse of the EV takeover - Ticker -DAN

    Posted: 16 Oct 2020 01:23 PM PDT

    So they build several parts for workhorse and hyliion...the make for ev part looking to drop to 20-30 billion dollar industry in 2030. Dana, Inc. engages in the manufacture, distribution, and sale of technology drive and motion products, sealing solutions, thermal-management technologies, and fluid-power products. It operates through the following segments: Light Vehicle, Commercial Vehicle, Off-Highway, and Power Technologies. The Light Vehicle segment includes drivetrain systems and components for passenger cars, crossovers, sport utility vehicles, vans, and light trucks. The Commercial Vehicle segment comprises of drivetrain and tire-pressure management systems, as well as genuine service parts, for medium and heavy-duty commercial vehicles. The Off-Highway segment offers drivetrain systems and individual product solutions under Spicer brand, and motion systems for associated machine working functions and stationary industrial equipment under Brevini brand. The Power Technologies segment consists of sealing solutions and thermal management technologies for reducing fuel consumption and emissions. The company was founded by Clarence W. Spicer on April 1, 1904 and is headquartered in Maumee, OH.

    submitted by /u/mikedale6611
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    Question about PyroGenesis- pyrnf

    Posted: 16 Oct 2020 11:07 AM PDT

    I'm not sure what their latest news means. To me it all sounds like good news, it seems to have nothing but good news since I invested at 0.43. Am I missing something in their news that's bad news or is it just because people are selling taking a profit?

    I'm sorry I'm a noob. And no I'm not gonna sell because it's still a penny stock (hopefully not much longer) because I believe in the company. I'm not going to sell because it's going down, I'm in long term. I'm just curious what I'm missing.

    submitted by /u/jdavis1791
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