• Breaking News

    Saturday, October 17, 2020

    Stocks - AMD and future growth

    Stocks - AMD and future growth


    AMD and future growth

    Posted: 17 Oct 2020 04:14 AM PDT

    (If this is a recent topic in some other post, please lmk and I'll delete this)

    I took a small position in AMD a couple of weeks ago, and at the top of my head I think it's an OK mid to long-term investment. I know a fair bit must already be priced in, but won't they sell a good portion in the coming years and make solid money? Is there any news, developments or other factors I need to take into account?

    What are your thoughts, and what's your horizon on the investment if you hold any? Just sold Sunrun with good returns after I thought I could have it mid-long in my portfolio (thought I'll wait out a couple of months and see where it stabilizes).

    submitted by /u/maggalee
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    I am trying to understand options trading. And I was wondering if buying a put and selling a call isn't a very safe strategy?

    Posted: 17 Oct 2020 08:50 AM PDT

    I am trying to understand options trading. And I was wondering:

    If I buy 1000 shares in, let's say NIO at 28.48, and then 1) buy 10 OTM puts at 26 for 1,6, and simultaneously 2) sell 10 OTM calls (same expiration date) at 31 for 4,5... then I have downside protection and lock in the potential sale price.

    In other words, the premium on the sold call more than covers the price of the bought put so worst case scenario is selling at 26 everything going into 0. No profit. No loss. Best case scenario is profit.

    So, what's to lose with this strategy other than foregoing some profits if the stock goes up?

    submitted by /u/RadicalSuperfly
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    AMC Entertainment (NYSE: AMC) vs. Cinemark (NYSE: CNK) - An upside comparison and the future for traditional Movie Theaters

    Posted: 17 Oct 2020 08:44 AM PDT

    Introduction:

    AMC Entertainment and Cinemark are the two largest U.S. theater companies.

    • AMC is the largest theater chain in the U.S. and the world.

      • AMC has acquired Carmike Cinemas along with the European Odeon and Nordic shortly thereafter.
      • AMC operates 630+ theaters in the U.S. and 365 theaters in Europe.
      • There are even plans for AMC to open theaters in Saudi Arabia.
    • Cinemark is the second largest in the U.S.

      • It operates 342 US theaters
      • Operates 205 theaters across Latin America.
      • In an interesting twist Cinemark has a 25% stake in National Cinemedia (NASDAQ: NCMI) (The focus for NCMI is advertising)

    52 Week Highs/Lows:

    • AMC High: $10.95 / Low 1.95$ - Currently trading at $3.04 (17 October)
    • CNK High $37.83 / Low $5.71 - Currently trading at $7.86 (17 October)

    Comparing the balance sheets (At a glance):

    Before this comparison just some quick notes: Movie attendance has decreased gradually over the last 20 years. Both Cinemark and AMC have released rewards programs which has actually increased attendance in 2019 (And then a wild COVID appeared). Additionally both companies have increased their prices to bump up their revenues over the years.

    AMC has spend the last several years buying up Cinema chains (Lots of acquisitions in 2016-17), this has loaded them up on debt. So, naturally, COVID-19 has put the company in a very difficult spot.

    • Last year the company had $340 million in interest payments.
    • It's debt totals over $5 billion. (As of last year)
    • AMC is holding just $198.5 million in cash
    • AMC has more theaters in high-rent locations compared to Cinemark - This lowers their revenue.
    • Their current debt is 5x their current EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization)

    AMC is currently in fund-raising mode, they have stated they have enough funds through the year and possibly a bit longer. Recently though AMC has made a deal with Universal. A step into the streaming market, especially during these lockdowns, could move the company in a brighter direction if they can weather their current conditions.

    Cinemark, unlike AMC, has committed to more conservative growth, a move that puts Cinemark in an excellent position to weather the current COVID downturns.

    • CNK has over $571.76 million in cash
    • Additonally they have access to over $100 million in additional credit
    • Their expenses total to ~$520 million if we lump their interest and lease payments. (Plus some other obligations I'm sure)
    • Their current debt is ~2x their current EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization)

    Cinemark has states they have enough money to last through 2021 comfortably. One important note, unlike AMC, Cinemark does not appear to have made move towards streaming services. This could impact their future revenues if theater attendance continues to decline more in favor for streaming.

    The Takeaway:

    This choice definitely comes down to personal risk tolerance, and depends on your view of the resiliency of the movie industry. Theaters have been on the decline for years, the reward programs have decreased this flow a bit, but how much will it continue to do so especially if people have unsubscribed from these to pinch pennies during COVID?

    AMC is definitely the riskier of the two, they have tons of debt and Europe has seen less theater attendance than Latin America has for CNK. However if AMC survives (by its own means or government money), there is potential for stronger upside, especially since they are getting their foot in the door with universal.

    Cinemark's conservative growth is definitely paying off during this time. However, if AMC does survive then what will Cinemark's moves be in the future to ensure their continues relevance as theaters continue to decline?

    Final Thoughts:

    Do I think these (AMC & CNK) are super long term holds? I am hesitant to say. Looking at a 1-2 year window I do believe they both have strong potential for profit. Beyond that it is difficult to say. AMC's moves with universal could put the company on a new future path away from traditional theaters. It'll be interesting to see where that goes and what Cinemark will do to move itself from a potentially dying market. If you buy definitely set stop-losses just incase, and/or plan an exit price.

    Thankyou to all that have read this far. This is not all inclusive so please please do your own research to supplement the quick comparison here. Additionally thankyou to everyone who provided constructive comments on the AT&T post. That was definitely more of a controversial stock, it was interesting to hear everyone's different takes.

    EDIT: Clarity

    submitted by /u/036Gooddaysir036
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    AT&T (NYSE: T) - An excellent opportunity for Dividend Investors, or those looking to start.

    Posted: 16 Oct 2020 06:59 PM PDT

    AT&T is a company that I'm sure doesn't need explaining. It is familiar to all of us as a telecom company that has branched out to providing internet, entertainment (HBO Max being one of their more recent ventures), and more.

    Why this is being posted now & the potential:

    • Q3 reporting is set for 22 October.
    • At its current price AT&T is in a position to provide significant growth prospects alongside a safe, high-paying dividend.

    Looking at it current chart (16 October for reference) we can clearly see here that the stock is trading at its lowest levels since Q1. This provides a great opportunity to buy quality company at much higher yields to lock in superior long-term returns. It is unlikely they will drop much lower than this point due to the effect downward pressure has on dividend paying companies. If we look at the older charts, when AT&T has reached these lows the stock has a strong tendency to rally from this 27-28$ support area. Additionally AT&T has a lot going for it, let's quickly take a look.

    What AT&T has going for it:

    • It has increased its dividend payout for the last 36 years and has the means to continue to do so.
    • Consistent revenue growth.
    • Lots and lots of cash on hand.
    • They are a leader in the US for 5G.
    • They are working to replace old top management (This is particularly important).
    • Warner Media and HBO Max

    Warner Media and HBO Max may be points of controversy here. Let's look at it from this perspective. These get AT&T into new markets, HBO in particular into the saturated streaming market. Netflix has dominated this particular sector, however Disney and AT&T are cracking Netflix's business model by pulling back their streaming to their own platforms. This is the reason Netflix is creating so many of its own shows/movies and increasing it's subscription price. This pressure is allowing AT&T to slowly claw its way in. (Very slowly though, obv HBO Max is no Disney Plus). Additionally this will be the first full quarter of HBO Max on the books for AT&T, with 36 million new subscribers reported it is likely to have a positive effect on the report.

    The safe dividend is a strong factor to remain bullish on AT&T. Even with the disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic, AT&T's balance sheets show recurring profitability and consistent cash flow generation can easily cover the quarterly payouts.

    Two big issues:

    • A lot of long-term debt (At extremely low rates, so fortunately it doesn't impact their cash flow too much)
    • Terrible acquisitions over the last 10 years (Direct TV, which they are looking to sell)

    It could be a good sign that AT&T is finally looking to sell the underperforming Direct TV. Sure they bought it for $67 Billion and would likely sell for $20 Billion but off loading legacy segments can allow them to focus on growth and expand into markets that are actually relevant for today and tomorrow while being less of a drag on their current debt.

    Final Comments:

    Please extend this by doing your own research on top of everything else you have read here, there were many points only briefly touched on.

    Thank you for taking the time to read!

    EDIT: Thanks to all that posted constructive comments! As several have pointed out, yes, AT&T has underperformed the S&P, it should be avoided if you aren't seeking out a high paying dividend stock.

    submitted by /u/036Gooddaysir036
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    Cloudflare "One more thing" event! Buckle up boys!

    Posted: 17 Oct 2020 02:54 AM PDT

    https://twitter.com/eastdakota/status/1317163007579889664

    Cloudflare CEO just tweeted that they are gonna reveal one more product along with their recent announcement. I certainly think that NET has a long runway ahead and they are just getting started here.
    1. World-class engineering team.
    2. A good chunk of packets flow through their infrastructure!
    3. Ever demanding apps who is hungry for bandwidth
    4. More and more companies are asking for in-country CDN.
    5. Plenty of DDOS attacks and cybersecurity is even more important now with WFH is becoming the new normal.

    submitted by /u/thereisnospooongeek
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    iPhone price wars are back as carriers compete for 5G customers

    Posted: 17 Oct 2020 12:18 PM PDT

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/17/iphone-price-wars-are-back-as-carriers-compete-for-5g-customers-.html

    U.S. carriers are actively competing for subscribers by discounting the new iPhone, hoping to lock customers in for years on their wireless service.

    Verizon and AT&T are advertising "free" iPhone 12s for customers who sign up for unlimited plans and multiple-year commitments.

    For Apple, the wave of carrier promotions could boost iPhone sales in the United States by reducing the cost of a new phone.

    submitted by /u/coolcomfort123
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    All ETF Portfolio

    Posted: 17 Oct 2020 10:37 AM PDT

    Hey guys!

    I was wondering, what are the hypothetical risks of holding a pure ETF Portfolio? (Eg. 15% ARKK, 15% ARKG, 30% VOO, 30% QQQ and 10% ICLN)?

    In my portfolio, the only ETFs I hold are ARKK, ICLN and QCLN but they represent about 27% of my overall portfolio. (Not looking to change that but wondered what the risks would be for traders who don't wanna bother too much with stocks like my brother).

    Thanks 😊

    submitted by /u/evenc13
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    CVS, Vaccine, and Trump

    Posted: 17 Oct 2020 10:59 AM PDT

    Announced just before ending market, there was a finalized partnership of CVSHealth with the White House deliver the Coronavirus vaccine directly to nursing homes with no cost to seniors.

    There seems to be a lot of stock volume, just before the announcement, up 13%.

    Given that everything went down last week, do you think they're undervalued? They are trading under their cash value right now and with the second wave, I think they'll rally a bit more. How are you going to play them?

    submitted by /u/UsedButtPlugsForSale
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    Hertz

    Posted: 17 Oct 2020 08:16 AM PDT

    Hertz just announced it will received 1.65 billion in financing, actual process won't finalized until oct 29. Whats the next move?? Should we be going all in buying as much stock as possible or staying as far away as possible coming nowhere near it?? All advice appreciated

    submitted by /u/ethanarmando
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    I had a failed startup and almost went broke until I started trading.

    Posted: 17 Oct 2020 11:10 AM PDT

    I am 28, married and own a travel related startup. We had some good growth and were making good profit. But ever since, the Covid pandemic, our business has slowed down alot.We lost a lot of money and laid off many employees.

    Due to this,I decided to get into trading about 5 months ago to cover up for the lost income. I had to start from 0 as I didn't a darn thing about the stock market. I invested plenty of time in researching and collecting information. I found some great sources online that explained things very well.

    So,I started with a small capital. I won't lie, It was going terrible at first lol. It was hit and miss, I would gain some, lose some. I wasn't really getting anywhere.

    Then, I started carefully analysing stocks, seeing the annual report etc. I have started buying and selling in shorter periods of time. Doing this, I have made over $15k in the last month alone.

    I buy the stocks when I feel they are at an upward trend and sell when I hit my target. if they drop , I try to atleast break even and minimize losses as much as possible. It's important to be wise and opportunistic. Don't get too greedy. If the stock is at a high, Don't wait too long or it will backfire.

    Moreover, Pick your battles. Don't just buy and sell on a whim. Have a plan and a target in mind. What is your reason of buying? What do you expect to happen? What is your escape if it fails?

    Whether you are a veteran trader or a newbie, it really doesn't matter. You will be successful if you play cards right. Keep Trading.

    Edit- Since I am getting a lot dm's for sources, i will just link some that i liked here.

    Link 1

    Link 2

    Link 3

    submitted by /u/d3m0nb3ast3
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    Too stupid to invest now?

    Posted: 17 Oct 2020 05:49 AM PDT

    I was supposed to start investing about a year ago (didn't know anything and had to do research etc), but I procrastinated because of mental health issues. Then the corona crash happened, and I thought that it was my chance to enter the market but I missed it again due to procrastination. This summer I decided to do something about it and I gradually started to learn more about the stock market and how to invest, but I kept procrastinating until September when I invested a small amount just to try it out. Since then I have been learning and researching a lot, but now that I've found my strategy I feel like the prices are too high to get in now. I know that my procrastination has been the issue from the very beginning, but I don't know if I should keep waiting (holding a significant amount of cash right now) and I find myself beating myself up over not investing during the crash. My plan is long-term investing for at least 10-15 years, so does it matter if I enter the market when the prices are really high? Can't let go of all the gains I would've made if I invested in March or even April/May/June when I was too caught up in other things. What should I do?

    submitted by /u/spacecow8876
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    Picking the right place to put my 401k in Schwab

    Posted: 17 Oct 2020 01:29 PM PDT

    So Schwab is giving me several options to contribute 100% of my contributions to what ever they have available to pick and I'm not sure where to put all or break it up into different selections they have. I'll get a 6% match from the company I think that's the max. Just want it in the right place to make the most out of what I select any advice?

    submitted by /u/unknownRealitys
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    Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning October 19th, 2020

    Posted: 17 Oct 2020 05:55 AM PDT

    Good Saturday morning to all of you here on r/stocks. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.

    Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning October 19th, 2020.

    More volatility is likely ahead as rising cases, lack of stimulus overshadow strong earnings - (Source)


    Another volatile week may be in store for traders as coronavirus cases rise in the U.S. and Europe while Democrats and Republicans remain at an impasse over new fiscal aid.


    The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 fell for three straight days this week. That slide was the longest losing streak for the averages since mid-September. The two market benchmarks eked out slight gains on Friday to snap their losing streak.


    Investors and traders expect this choppy trading action to continue, especially as the worsening coronavirus data and a lack of U.S. coronavirus stimulus draw attention away from a strong earnings season thus far.


    "The combination of no stimulus, fading economic momentum, and the threat of rising coronavirus cases, creates a rather negative dynamic for risk assets right now," said Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report, in a note to clients.


    The seven-day average of new daily coronavirus infections has risen in 39 states, including New York, New Jersey and Wisconsin, according to a CNBC analysis of data from Johns Hopkins University and the U.S. Census Bureau. At the nationwide level, the rate of new daily cases is at its highest level since August.


    In Europe, the seven-day average of new Covid-19 cases has surpassed that of the U.S., leading several countries in the region to reinstate tougher social distancing rules and roll back previous reopening measures.


    "What this means is economic activity may slow down a bit, and we've already started to see some of that in the data," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities, noting the weekly jobless claims numbers released Thursday show they've reached a point where "they're not going to get better; they're going to get worse."


    The Labor Department said initial U.S. jobless claims hit their highest level since August, reaching 898,000 in the week ending Oct. 10.


    Investors will also keep their eyes on Washington during the week ahead as lawmakers continue to struggle over new U.S. fiscal stimulus.


    Political posturing on stimulus 'hurting' those in need

    This week, President Donald Trump said he would raise his offer for a coronavirus aid above the current level of $1.8 trillion. The White House's current offer is smaller than a $2.2 trillion package passed by the House. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., has said the administration's proposal "falls significantly short" of what is needed.


    This back and forth between the two parties has dwindled expectations among market participants of a compromise being reached before the Nov. 3 election. It has also added to the concerns surrounding the U.S. economic recovery.


    "This political posturing is hurting that cohort of the economy that needs help the most," said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial. "To the small and mid-size business owner, the airlines, this is not just about politics; this is every day life. There going to be an impact in the real economy if we don't see something now."


    Earnings season ignored?

    Those talks over further stimulus are also expected to divert attention away from the corporate earnings season, which began this week but had next to no impact on the broader market.


    Procter & Gamble, Netflix, Travelers, American Airlines and American Express are among the companies slated to report next week.


    JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and VF Corp. are among the 49 S&P 500 companies that posted their latest quarterly results this week. Of those 49 companies, 86% reported better-than-expected earnings, according to data from The Earnings Scout.


    "I wish I could say that next week we're going to put aside the politics and the Covid concerns behind us, but we won't trade this earnings season," said Hogan of National Securities. "While it will likely be a record-breaking season for companies beating estimates, it's also going to be one that is largely ignored because there're so many other macro factors that are more important."


    There is also some important housing data in the week ahead, including home builders' sentiment Monday, housing starts Tuesday, and existing home sales Thursday.


    "The housing market is still off to the races," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. "The mortgage applications were strong, suggesting very strong activity in the month of September."


    Zandi said the market will eventually cool when interest rates begin to rise. But for now, "certainly the economy could use the juice."


    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

    Major Indices for this past week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

    Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

    Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

    Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!)

    5 Charts We Are Watching

    There are many charts that caught our attention this week, and today we share the top 5 charts we're watching.

    The S&P 500 Index recently had a four-week losing streak and fell nearly 10% along the way, while the Nasdaq and many large cap tech stocks fell even more. Then in a big move higher over the past two weeks, many stocks moved from oversold to overbought in a very quick timeframe.

    As the LPL Chart of the Day shows, more than 90% of the components in the S&P 500 were beneath their 10-day moving average on September 24 and within two weeks saw more than 90% above this short-term trend line. This type of buying thrust is consistent with future strong returns, suggests quick reversals from oversold to overbought are a good thing, and could bode well for stocks to outperform bonds well into 2021.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Parts of the economy are opening back up, while employment continues to disappoint. One specific area that continues to improve is how many people are flying, as the seven-day average number of travelers going through Transportation Security Administration (TSA) checkpoints hit a new recovery high. We discuss other high-frequency data points in our COVID Surge Stalling Europe's Recovery blog.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    We've noted before that stock market gains ahead of the election historically support the incumbent party, while if stocks are lower it tends to support new leadership in the White House. Taking this further, the US dollar also tends to send signals for who might win. In fact, when stocks are up and the US dollar is lower ahead of the election, or if stocks are lower and the US dollar is higher before an election, the results have accurately predicted the last seven times those scenarios took place. Given stocks are up and the US dollar is slightly lower, this could be one clue the upcoming election will be much closer than many are expecting.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Sticking with the election, many investors are worried about higher taxes and more deregulation if former Vice President Joe Biden wins. "Higher taxes may be one part of it, but Biden is also looking at huge spending initiatives," explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. "Stock markets like spending, and this could more than help offset potentially higher taxes." Lower tariffs could potentially provide another offset as well.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Last, Friday's retail sales report came in better than expected, marking five consecutive months of year-over-year gains. It is worth noting the economy has never been in a recession after 4 or more consecutive monthly gains. Still, in the face of one of the most severe recessions ever, it took only a few months for sales to get back to new highs, as shown below. Historically, new highs in retail sales happen in expansions—and this is yet another clue the recession is likely over.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Record Surge In Business Formations As Economy Recovers From COVID

    Yesterday the Census updated business formation stats for Q3, and as indicated by high-frequency data from the Atlanta Fed, business formation exploded in Q3. As shown in the first chart below, total business applications rocketed upwards by 1.57 million, a record increase. Stripping out businesses that are unlikely to result in hiring, the numbers are much smaller in absolute terms but still rose 79% to a record pace. Finally, applications for businesses with planned wages surged 70% from a record low in Q2, to the highest levels since 2008.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    In all three instances, the recent behavior is a complete reversal of the post-Financial Crisis period, when the prolonged recession led to a huge decline in business starts. That's a good sign for the breadth of the economic rebound, as business formation tends to lead to higher productivity thanks to more innovation and investment. Below we show changes in total business applications by state; Michigan, Illinois, and Georgia are the biggest winners, with applications more than doubling. This analysis was originally published in our evening report -- The Closer -- on 10/14/20.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    B.I.G. Tips - Retail Sales Rebound

    After a disappointment last month, Retail Sales saw a nice rebound in September as consumers seem undeterred from spending despite the expiration of extended UI benefits and the lack of an additional stimulus bill. For the month of September, headline Retail Sales rose 1.9% m/m versus expectations for a more modest increase of 0.8%. Ex Autos and Gas, growth was even better relative to expectations, although August's already slower than expected growth was revised modestly lower.

    Breadth in this month's report was strong. Of the thirteen sectors that comprise the total pie, all but one of them (Electronics and Appliances) showed growth. Normally, when a sector shows m/m growth of a percent or two, it's impressive. This month, though, the volatility of the pandemic remains in place as two sectors showed growth of over 5%, including Clothing which saw double-digit growth relative to August!

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    While the monthly pace of retail sales is back at all-time highs, the characteristics behind the total level of sales have changed markedly in the post COVID world. In our just-released B.I.G. Tips report, we looked at these changing dynamics to highlight the groups that have been the biggest winners and losers from the shifts.


    University of Michigan Mixed Again

    The University of Michigan reported preliminary consumer sentiment numbers for October. University of Michigan data has shown a much smaller bounce than other sentiment surveys, but the preliminary numbers for October did increase versus September. The strongest part of the survey was expectations, which has risen three months in a row to the highest levels since March. Consumers' current assessment of the economy fell sequentially and is sitting at about the same place it was back in early 2012.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    One feature of the University of Michigan poll with incomplete data prior to 2016 but more complete data since is a breakout of economic sentiment by political party affiliation. As shown below, their data shows Republicans getting a massive sentiment boost in the wake of the 2016 election. The key here though, is that the boost to the sentiment of Republicans and the decline for Democrats came after the election as this data is definitely lagging to political outcomes rather than leading.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Small Business Smiles

    Sentiment among small businesses continued to improve in the month of September according to the NFIB's monthly Small Business Optimism Index. As shown below, the index rose 3.8 points to 104 which is now just half of a point below the levels prior to the pandemic in February. That was also better than expectations of a smaller improvement to 101.2. Small business sentiment has now risen in four of the past five months.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    In the table below, we break down this month's report by each of the ten components of the headline number as well as the many other indices included in the report such as those not used as inputs to the headline number and what small businesses are reporting to be their biggest problems.

    Across all indices of the September report, breadth was solid with only a couple of indices falling month over month—Expected Credit Conditions and Credit Conditions Availability. Some of those that were higher saw record or near-record month-over-month increases.

    Some of the most notable indices this month included those regarding inventories. The Current Inventories index which gauges the net percent of owners viewing current inventory levels as too low rose 2 points to a record high reading of 5. Given this, the index for Plans to Increase Inventories is tied with the reading from November of 2004 for a record high of 11. Indicating low inventory levels, the report is consistent with some other recent data like the regional Fed manufacturing surveys. Those low inventories are resulting in higher prices as that index's 12-point increase in September marked the biggest one month gain on record. While the Higher Prices index is not at any sort of an extreme, September's move indicates that a rising number of businesses are raising prices.

    Additionally, those higher prices and lower inventory numbers appear to be a result of demand that continues to rapidly improve. The indices for Actual Sales and Actual Earnings Changes remain negative for a sixth and tenth month in a row, respectively, meaning a net number of businesses continue to see lower rather than higher top and bottom-line numbers. But these indices are seeing big moves higher. For the index of Actual Earnings Changes, the 13-point climb in September was the largest on record and the 9-point increase for Actual Sales Changes followed a 13-point increase in August; both being some of the largest one-month moves on record. In order to meet the needs of this demand, a higher number of businesses plan to increase employment with that index rising to 28; the highest level since December of 2018. Even though businesses seek to hire more, they also report it is hard to fill positions as the index of Job Openings Hard to Fill rose to the top 5% of all readings. Cost and quality of labor also were reported as two of the most pressing problems for businesses.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Small Businesses Cautiously Optimistic

    In an earlier post, we highlighted the details of the September NFIB Small Business Optimism report. The report showed overall sentiment among small businesses has continued to improve as demand has bounced back (though it has not yet fully recovered as still more businesses report lower sales and earnings on a net basis) leading to low inventory levels, higher prices, and a need for more employment. While generally improved conditions have lifted optimism, that is not to say small businesses have given an all-clear. The Uncertainty Index from NFIB has risen each of the past three months with September's 2-point increase bringing it back to the same level as March of this year. In other words, it is perhaps best to say that small businesses are cautiously optimistic.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    From the pandemic to the Election, there are plenty of reasons for businesses to be uncertain. As for what they are reporting to be the biggest problems, labor remains at the top. 30% of businesses have reported that either cost (9%) or more predominately quality (21%) of labor are their biggest issues. While off the highs from the past few years, the current readings are still historically elevated.

    Behind labor, government related problems also are largely on the minds of business owners. Government red tape and taxes combine to account for 29% of businesses' biggest problems. While that is a large share, neither of those indices are at any sort of extreme.

    Poor sales, on the other hand, remains as the third major concern for businesses. 12% of businesses reported poor sales as the single most important issue in September, down from 15% in August and 7-percentage points lower than the April peak. While improved, the number of businesses seeing demand as a major issue is still at some of the highest levels of the past several years.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Sentiment By State

    Below is a look at the year-to-date reading for the high-frequency Morning Consult daily consumer sentiment indicator. While still well off highs seen prior to the COVID Crash in late February and early March, sentiment has generally been ticking higher off the lows. You'll notice in the chart below, however, that while the "Future Expectations" reading is still bouncing back nicely, the "Current Conditions" reading has been going more sideways over the last couple of months.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    We can also look closer into state level readings from the daily Morning Consult sentiment numbers. In the heat map below, we show the changes in the levels of consumer sentiment for each state since mid-February. As shown, the lower 48 have seen much larger improvements than Alaska or Hawaii with the largest improvements coming in the Northeast and parts of the Midwest. On the other hand, in addition to Hawaii and Alaska, some of the key swing states like Maine, New Hampshire, and Nevada have improved the least. Of all 50 states, Vermont's current reading on sentiment is the closest to its February levels, but even Vermont is still down 17.9 points.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    (CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)

    Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:


    Monday 10.19.20 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Monday 10.19.20 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Tuesday 10.20.20 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Tuesday 10.20.20 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Wednesday 10.21.20 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Wednesday 10.21.20 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Thursday 10.22.20 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Thursday 10.22.20 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Friday 10.23.20 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Friday 10.23.20 After Market Close:

    ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

    (NONE.)


    Tesla, Inc. $439.67

    Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:25 PM ET on Wednesday, October 21, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.56 per share on revenue of $8.20 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.82 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 70% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 68.36% with revenue increasing by 30.10%. Short interest has increased by 309.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 73.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 93.2% above its 200 day moving average of $227.62. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, October 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 24,439 contracts of the $500.00 call expiring on Friday, October 23, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 10.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.9% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    Netflix, Inc. $530.79

    Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, October 20, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.12 per share on revenue of $6.38 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.19 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of approximately $2.09 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 44.22% with revenue increasing by 21.64%. Short interest has decreased by 14.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 7.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 23.1% above its 200 day moving average of $431.11. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, October 16, 2020 there was some notable buying of 5,864 contracts of the $550.00 call expiring on Friday, October 23, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 10.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.5% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    Procter & Gamble Co. $144.39

    Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, October 20, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.43 per share on revenue of $18.21 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.49 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 68% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 4.38% with revenue increasing by 2.31%. Short interest has decreased by 17.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 10.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.7% above its 200 day moving average of $123.73. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, September 25, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,880 contracts of the $140.00 call expiring on Friday, December 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 3.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.5% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    Intel Corp. $54.16

    Intel Corp. (INTC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, October 22, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.10 per share on revenue of $18.21 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.19 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 64% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of approximately $1.10 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 22.54% with revenue decreasing by 5.11%. Short interest has increased by 251.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.2% below its 200 day moving average of $56.53. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, October 13, 2020 there was some notable buying of 10,216 contracts of the $60.00 call expiring on Friday, November 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.2% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    Lockheed Martin Corp. $386.50

    Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Tuesday, October 20, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $6.07 per share on revenue of $16.24 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $6.30 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 66% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 7.24% with revenue increasing by 7.05%. Short interest has increased by 4.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.1% above its 200 day moving average of $382.22. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, October 16, 2020 there was some notable buying of 924 contracts of the $140.00 put expiring on Friday, January 21, 2022. Option traders are pricing in a 4.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.0% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    Abbott $109.67

    Abbott (ABT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Wednesday, October 21, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.90 per share on revenue of $8.43 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.01 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 68% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 7.14% with revenue increasing by 4.38%. Short interest has decreased by 13.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 12.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 18.6% above its 200 day moving average of $92.46. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, October 13, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,200 contracts of the $55.00 call expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 4.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.7% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    Coca-Cola Company $50.03

    Coca-Cola Company (KO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:55 AM ET on Thursday, October 22, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.45 per share on revenue of $8.35 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.48 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 55% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 19.64% with revenue decreasing by 12.17%. Short interest has decreased by 19.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.5% above its 200 day moving average of $49.31. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, October 2, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,479 contracts of the $50.50 call expiring on Friday, November 6, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 3.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.0% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    AT&T Corp. $27.33

    AT&T Corp. (T) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:05 AM ET on Thursday, October 22, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.77 per share on revenue of $41.63 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.79 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 48% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 18.09% with revenue decreasing by 6.63%. The stock has drifted lower by 9.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.3% below its 200 day moving average of $31.52. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, October 7, 2020 there was some notable buying of 40,305 contracts of the $25.00 call expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 3.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.0% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    Halliburton Company $12.25

    Halliburton Company (HAL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Monday, October 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.08 per share on revenue of $3.09 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.12 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 43% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 76.47% with revenue decreasing by 44.32%. Short interest has decreased by 8.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 10.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.2% below its 200 day moving average of $14.11. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, October 6, 2020 there was some notable buying of 5,493 contracts of the $11.00 call expiring on Friday, November 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.3% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    Snap Inc. $27.83

    Snap Inc. (SNAP) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Tuesday, October 20, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.05 per share on revenue of $547.24 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.04) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 63% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 66.67% with revenue increasing by 22.64%. Short interest has decreased by 34.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 18.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 39.5% above its 200 day moving average of $19.95. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, October 6, 2020 there was some notable buying of 20,380 contracts of the $24.00 put expiring on Friday, November 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 12.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 14.7% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    DISCUSS!

    What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?


    I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead r/stocks.

    submitted by /u/bigbear0083
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    Best Stock Market Movies

    Posted: 17 Oct 2020 01:03 PM PDT

    Let's go through the list of all of the movies out there related to the stock market or having to do something with the stock market or Wall Street.

    Wolf of Wall Street

    Margin Call

    Boiler Room

    Wall Street (1987)

    Wall Street - Money Never Sleeps

    Inside Job

    Equity

    Too Big To Fail

    Arbitrage

    The Big Short - one of the best and I left it out

    These are this is the best stock market movies! Good time to start watching a few of these if you have not yet. I've been through the entire list myself. Share the list with everyone please!

    92

    submitted by /u/KumarIsMyName
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    Canada Nickel cream of the crop. $CNIKF $CNC.V

    Posted: 17 Oct 2020 12:25 PM PDT

    Nickel supercycle beginning with nickel prices rising to $7 a pound yesterday. Clean nickel is going to be the major focus for EV market where the majors will step in to buyout. My money is on Canada Nickel. Just got upgraded to the OTCQB this past week.

    https://twitter.com/peedeeheenee/status/1317485996506718210

    https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/canada-nickel-company-begins-trading-on-otcqb-market-under-ticker-cnikf-856288624.html

    submitted by /u/Kooj44
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    5 Year etf investment

    Posted: 17 Oct 2020 12:42 AM PDT

    Hi, im looking to invest into some ETF's for the next 5 years and would like an opinion on what i have picked and if theres some better options that im unaware of.

    Its a one time lump sum investment with no monthly contributions (going to be a student so i prefer focusing only on that)

    QQQ/VOO 50%

    ICLN 25%, ARKK 25%

    submitted by /u/potato45078
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    Is GBP to USD rate about to tank (thus making it smart for UK traders to invest in US stocks)?

    Posted: 17 Oct 2020 03:53 AM PDT

    I am referring to the following bbc article:

    Brexit: Trade talks with the EU are over, says No 10

    If trade talks are over that means no deal Brexit and ~10% drop in the pound.

    No 10 argued there was "no point" in discussions continuing next week unless the EU was prepared to discuss the detailed legal text of a partnership.

    UK chief negotiator Lord Frost said he had told EU counterpart Michel Barnier there was now no "basis" for planned talks on Monday.

    Number 10 said the two sides had agreed to talk again next week - by phone.

    Earlier, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen tweeted that the Brussels negotiating team would go to London after the weekend to "intensify" discussions.

    France's Europe minister Clément Beaune told BBC Newsnight that, while the EU would not pursue a deal at any cost, "we will listen to what the UK side wants to say to us".

    Meanwhile, ratings agency Moody's has downgraded the UK's credit status, citing falling economic strength due to the coronavirus pandemic and uncertainty over Brexit.

    The prime minister had set this week's EU summit as the deadline for the two sides to agree a deal.

    The problem is, the wording used and the fact that EU negotiators are coming to London leaves some room for a deal to still go through.

    The question is - on Monday when markets open, is the pound likely to see a sudden drop? If so, I can transfer my savings to USD over the weekend with Transferwise - thus avoiding my money losing value.

    submitted by /u/abaggins
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    Sold all my SPOT and NFLX shares. Loading up on NIO

    Posted: 16 Oct 2020 05:32 PM PDT

    I actually sold SPOT at a 2% loss which was my first loss ever. But I'm highly confident that NIO will make it back for me. I've been on the NIO ride already since 13 bucks. Let's go boys. NIO to 50 EOY

    submitted by /u/JoThePro10
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    Teen Investing Discussion

    Posted: 17 Oct 2020 06:31 AM PDT

    I'm 17 years old with a job making just above minimum wage. I started doing research on value investing so obviously I went straight to buffet. I've been studying for around a month now but I haven't made any actions. I have $2000 saved up and am looking for advice on what you guys would do from my situation. I'm still learning so detailed explanations would be great. Who do I open my account with? What company's should I research? I've learned the basics on how to value a company. Any help would be greatly appreciated!

    submitted by /u/Hustle-mans
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    universa spitznagel and nassim taleb

    Posted: 17 Oct 2020 07:42 AM PDT

    i see alot of people talk about investing here but not that much about hedging which im sure alot of you do. What do you guys think of universa investments & nassim talebs advice on allocating a tiny bit of your portfolio to losing a tiny bit constantly on tail hedges that pay off big time if something crashes, i dont really understand specifically what they do besides just "tail hedging" but universa made 4000% gains (might be a slightly different number im just reading articles) during q1 2020 as the market tanked. Not a topic i see here alot so id just like to hear your thoughts on these types of hedges and mark spitznagel & nassim talebs investing strategys in general

    submitted by /u/Artistic-Chemical-74
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    Selling $MTCH before earnings

    Posted: 17 Oct 2020 05:53 AM PDT

    Heavily considering selling $MTCH on Monday to pick up more shares of $JD and $BABA and maybe even a couple shares of $ICLN

    I'm not envisioning a ton of upside for $MTCH considering rising COVID cases, new CEO, future Bumble IPO, and challenges in further monetizing Tinder

    submitted by /u/rb1754
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    Curious to understand ZM (Zoom)

    Posted: 17 Oct 2020 12:01 AM PDT

    Not to beat a dead horse here but zoom is massively overvalued. When it comes down to it, video conferencing as a whole is relatively old but zoom still had the slight first mover advantage here.

    I guess what im saying is that their business and product is so "easy" to replicate considering how long the implementation has been around. They could be a memory if they cant compete with the other major players who practically pushed out their own works in progress overnight. Im watching this stock to study how people react, but do they really believe that zoom is a disruptor in any sense? People are still buying in on this like its only going to go up.

    submitted by /u/aske999
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