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    Home Unlabelled Stock Market - Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning October 26th, 2020

    Stock Market - Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning October 26th, 2020

    October 23, 2020

    Stock Market - Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning October 26th, 2020

    Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning October 26th, 2020

    Posted: 23 Oct 2020 01:51 PM PDT

    Good Friday evening to all of you here on r/StockMarket. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.

    Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning October 26th, 2020.

    There's a big week ahead for the market with an earnings deluge, GDP data and stimulus negotiations - (Source)

    About a third of the S&P 500 companies report earnings, including Apple and Microsoft, but uncertainty around stimulus and the presidential election could loom larger for markets in the week ahead.

    There is also important economic data on the calendar, with a first look at third-quarter gross domestic product Thursday. After the second quarter's shocking 31.4% decline following coronavirus shutdowns, the economy bounced back with growth of 32.5% expected in the third quarter, according to Refinitiv.

    Nearly 170 companies report earnings in the coming week, with a diverse group of blue chips among them, including Boeing, Caterpillar, Honeywell, and Merck. There is also a big showing from large tech names. Microsoft reports Tuesday, and Apple, Amazon, Alphabet and Facebook all report in a small window just after the market close on Thursday.

    "For some of these stocks that have run a long way, the bar for those stock to respond to good earnings is higher," said Julian Emanuel, head of equities and derivative strategy at BTIG.

    So far about 85% of S&P companies that have reported earnings beat estimates, about 20 percentage points more than the long term average. Companies have been reporting earnings more than 16% above estimates, and the expectation is that earnings overall will be down about 18%, based on actual results and forecasts, according to I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv.

    The Dow Jones Industrial average is down 1.2% for the week, breaking a 3-week win streak as coronavirus fiscal negotiations dragged on and tech shares declined.

    "We've offered compromises, the speaker on a number of issues is still dug in," said Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Friday. "If she wants to compromise, there will be a deal. But we've made lots of progress in lots of areas, but there's still some significant areas that we're working through."

    His comments knocked stocks down a bit midday Friday.

    "It's been a muted reaction to earnings overall," said Leo Grohowski, chief investment officer at BNY Mellon Wealth Management. "So I'm disappointed, in a way, as a fundamentally focused chief investment officer, that the stimulus saga seems to be what it's all about day in and day out, hour by hour. It's the stimulus saga, the election looming and the Covid resurgence. Those three things have sort of made earnings a page four story."

    With a week to go before the Nov. 3 election, the market could be a bit more volatile, especially if the outcome looks increasingly less certain.

    "The market is going to focus on the state of stimulus. It's going to focus on whether the polls are tightening or widening with regard to the probability of having an unclear outcome, contested outcome or both," said Emanuel.

    Former vice president Joe Biden's lead has narrowed slightly but he is still ahead in swing state polls.

    "We are experiencing a little bit of the calm before the storm here. I do think we are going to get some 1%, 2% daily moves depending on the news...I think you could see a 3% to 5% down opening the following day [after the election] pretty easily," said Grohowski. "I think the market has grown increasingly comfortable with a cleaner result, even if the cleaner result is an all blue result, which potentially would result in a higher tax regime."

    Strategists say the market began to focus more on the possibility of a Democratic sweep, where Democrats take the White House and Congress. That could mean a bigger stimulus package, and some strategists believe tax hikes would be delayed until the economy is on more solid ground.

    "As we get closer to the election, we're likely to see more volatility no matter what the outcome," said Grohowski.

    Emanuel said investors are not adequately hedged for an uncertain outcome. "Active managers have the most net long positions they've had in a number of years because they're fearful of missing a year-end rally," said Emanuel. "The options market in no way, shape or form is telling you people are hedged right here. The market is discounting a slight volatility, not expected to be persistent into year end."

    Emanuel said the options market indicates investors do expect some volatility but not through year end, as some investors began hedging for several months ago.

    "What we see by and large is again the bump in volatility. It's really only anticipating a 2% or 3% move in the market either way, after the election, and then the expectation is to likely moderate after that," Emanuel said.

    The final trading day of October is on Friday, so there could also be some added volatility as fund managers readjust their portfolios between bonds and stocks. In the past week, Treasury yields broke out of a four-month range. The 10-year yield rose above 0.80% for the first time since June, and while it could move higher, strategists expect its move to be contained.

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

    Major Indices for this past week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

    Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

    Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

    Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

    ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!]())

    (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!)

    Nasdaq vs. Dow Outperformance

    You may not realize it, but while the Tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite is up a ridiculous 28% so far in 2020, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is still in the red on the year.

    Below is a table showing the Dow and Nasdaq's annual percentage change since 1972 when the Nasdaq came into existence. Were the year to end now, the Nasdaq would be outperforming the Dow by 28.65 percentage points. This would be the third strongest outperformance for the Nasdaq on record and the strongest since 1999 when the spread was 60 percentage points!

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Below are all years since 1972 in which the Nasdaq outperformed the Dow by at least ten percentage points. The Nasdaq has posted an annual gain of 20%+ in seventeen different years, but never in a year when the Dow was in the red. Probably the year that most resembles 2020 in terms of the performance spread is 1979 when the Nasdaq rose 28.11% and the Dow rose just 4.19%. Following that year in 1980, both the Dow and Nasdaq surged again and the Nasdaq outperformed by another 18.9 percentage points.

    Interestingly, of the twelve years where the Nasdaq outperformed the Dow by more than ten percentage points, the Nasdaq went on to beat the Dow again in the next year eleven out of twelve times. The only time we've seen the Nasdaq crumble versus the Dow in the following year was in 2000 after 1999's outperformance. In 1999, the Nasdaq beat the Dow by a humongous 60 percentage points. After that large gap, though, the Nasdaq ran out of gas in 2000 and underperformed the Dow by 33 percentage points when the Dot Com Bubble finally burst.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Leading Indicators Show Slowing Pace of Economic Recovery

    The Federal Reserve's (Fed) Beige Book presented qualitative data that suggested the pace of the economic recovery had been tapering, as we discussed in the LPL Research blog, Beige Book Shows Pace of Recovery is Moderating, but now we have quantitative data that is confirming the survey data. The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI) increased 0.7% month over month in September to beat Bloomberg consensus expectations of 0.6%, but slowed after rising 1.4% in August and 2% in July.

    As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the leading indicators are still growing, but at a slower rate than the blistering pace seen in the initial months after emerging from lockdowns.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Growth in the LEI in September was primarily driven by the improvement in jobless claims, as well as continued strength in building permits for new private housing—a trend that matches the behavioral shifts to accommodate work from home conditions during the pandemic. The pullback in stock prices last month and manufacturers' new orders were the lone detractors from the LEI in September.

    "It comes as no surprise that growth began to level off after the surge over the summer, and the softer LEI print is suggesting the economy could be losing momentum heading into the fourth quarter," said LPL Chief Investment Officer Burt White. "However, despite the slowing momentum, we still expect solid economic growth in Q4, just not quite at the same rate in Q3."

    The decline in manufacturers' new orders is likely in relation to election uncertainty, which should prove transitory. However, the recent rise in COVID-19 cases in both Europe and the United States may cause business activity to slow, even if no additional lockdowns are mandated. As we head into the fourth quarter, we will continue to monitor real-time data for any additional clues about the pace of the economic recovery.

    Halloween Trading Strategy: S&P 500 Up 85% of the Time

    Next week provides a special short-term seasonal opportunity, one of the most consistent of the year. The last 4 trading days of October and the first 3 trading days of November have a stellar record the last 26 years. From the tables above & below:

    • Dow up 77% of the time, 20 of last 26 years, average gain 2.05%.
    • S&P up 85% of the time, 22 of last 26 years, average gain 2.11%.
    • NASDAQ up 85% of the time, 22 of last 26 years, average gain 2.67%.
    • Russell 2000 up 77% of the time, 20 of last 26 years, average gain 2.31%.

    Many refer to our Best Six Months Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy as the Halloween Indicator or Halloween Strategy and of course "Sell in May". These catch phrases highlight our discovery that was first published in 1986 in the 1987 Stock Trader's Almanac that most of the market's gains have been made from October 31 to April 30, while the market tends to go sideways to down from May through October.

    Recent market weakness has held off our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal so far, but it could trigger anytime now. Uncertainty abounds with surging covid-19 cases, a heated presidential election and persistently elevated unemployment. However, each day that passes is one day closer to a covid-19 vaccine. Interest rates are low and ample liquidity is available to support the market and the economy. Additional fiscal stimulus also appears to be coming soon. Debate continues on the amount, but both parties do appear to agree it is needed in one form or another.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    "Quitters"

    Like an old pair of "quitters" that keep falling down because their elasticity is shot, the market has had its own trouble staying up over the last few trading days. Today isn't over yet, but if the S&P 500 finishes around current levels it will mark the fourth straight day of finishing down at least half of one percent from its intraday high. Compared to the three days before, today's pullback from an intraday high has actually been pretty mild up to this point. Following Monday's 2%+ decline from the intraday high shortly after the open, yesterday, the S&P 500 traded down close to 1% from its afternoon high. These two reversals followed Friday's late-day sell-off when the S&P 500 finished the day down 0.75% from its intraday high.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    While it's disheartening to see the market erasing early gains as the day goes on, it's helpful to put the last four trading days into perspective. Over the last 25 years, it hasn't been uncommon for the S&P 500 to finish the day down at least 0.5% from an intraday high for four days in a row. The current streak, if it holds, would be the 158th such streak of four or more days. That works out to more than six a year. There have also been a number of streaks that were much longer than the current one. In fact, it was only a month ago that the S&P 500 went 11 straight days of finishing the day down at least 0.5% from its intraday high, and besides that streak, there have been five other streaks that spanned ten or more trading days.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    October Optimism For Homebuilders

    Given housing inventories remain historically low thanks to still strong demand, homebuilders have plenty to be optimistic about. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) has continued to show this strength as its monthly sentiment survey set a record high for the month of October. Back in August, the index tied the previous record level of 78 from December of 1998. Over the past two months, it has only raised that bar, coming in at 85 this month; 2 points above forecasts and last month's reading of 83.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    The rise in the index comes on broad strength across each of the sub-indices. Present Sales, Future Sales, and Traffic all matched or made record highs in October. The only sub-index that was not higher was for Traffic, though, it was unchanged at a record high.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    As for the look across each of the four US regions, the West and Northeast both saw sizeable upticks to new records, but sentiment in the Midwest and South were actually slightly lower. For the Northeast, this is the third record in a row. Meanwhile, the West's record high in October finally surpassed the prior high of 91 from October of 2005. Finally, even though sentiment fell in the Midwest and South, both remain at higher levels now than any month other than September's record highs.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending October 23rd, 2020

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

    STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 10.25.20

    ([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())

    (VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

    Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-

    • (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
    ([CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())

    (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

    (CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)

    Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

    Monday 10.26.20 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Monday 10.26.20 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Tuesday 10.27.20 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Tuesday 10.27.20 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)

    Wednesday 10.28.20 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)

    Wednesday 10.28.20 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #3!)

    Thursday 10.29.20 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #3!)

    Thursday 10.29.20 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)

    Friday 10.30.20 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Friday 10.30.20 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

    (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    DISCUSS!

    What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

    I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead r/StockMarket.

    submitted by /u/bigbear0083
    [link] [comments]

    Here is a Market Recap for today Friday, October 23, 2020. Please enjoy

    Posted: 23 Oct 2020 01:14 PM PDT

    PsychoMarket - Friday, October 23, 2020

    Stocks once again traded very choppily, with the market pulling back before reversing intraday to finish mixed. Market participants continue to closely monitor developments around stimulus talks, rising coronavirus infections, and the final presidential debate last night.

    The S&P 500 (SPY) performed the best today, finishing the day 0.29% up. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (QQQ) rose 0.2%, and the Dow Industrial Average (DIA) fell a modest 0.11%.

    It appears almost certain that there will not be additional stimulus before the November election, a mere eleven days away. House Speaker Pelosi still thinks it's possible for a bill to pass before the election, but says it's up to President Trump. She said, "We put pen to paper… we are writing the bill, and hopefully we will be able to resolve it… we could do that before the election if the president wants to." Any additional stimulus will likely include a new round of checks and more money for unemployment benefits, schools, state, and local governments.

    This morning, White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow told Bloomberg TV that "the ball's not really moving much right now" in discussions, and that he "doesn't want to make any predictions about the timing of an agreement."

    Unfortunately, in the US, around 71,600 new cases were recorded yesterday, according to data from John Hopkins. According to CBS News that is the fourth-highest number of new infections reported in the country since the pandemic began and the highest number reported since July. During the debate candidate Joe Biden warned of a "dark winter coming" and once again urged the public to wear masks and follow federal social distancing guidelines. President Trump, on the other hand, incorrectly claimed that the virus was "going away" and that the US is "rounding the corner." These statements were meant with severe criticism from health officials and are simply not true from a number's perspective, the country is averaging more than 50,000 new infections a day and it appears to be climbing.

    In Europe, governments and health officials are scrambling to deal with a surge of infections across the continent, with many fearing a second wave. Millions across Europe are now facing tougher coronavirus restrictions. Italy, France, Spain, Germany and elsewhere are introducing curfews in large regions of the country in a bid to stem the recent spike in cases. In England, the government has imposed restrictions in the capital of London and in cities in the Northern parts of the country.

    Highlights

    • Intel (INTC) sold off more than 10% after the company unexpectedly posted a quarterly decline in data center chip sales, driven by a near-halving of revenue from enterprise and government clients during the pandemic.
    • Today, remdesivir, Gilead's (GILD) antiviral treatment, became the first drug to receive formal approval by the FDA to treat Covid-19. The drug was used as part of President Trump's treatment after his diagnosis earlier this month.
    • Tesla (TSLA) plans to recall more than 29,000 of its Model S and Model X vehicles from China after problems with the cars' front and rear suspension were discovered.
    • Wells Fargo (WFC) is reportedly planning to sell its asset management business for around $3 billion.
    • AstraZeneca (AZN) reported that its COVID-19 vaccine trial will resume in the U.S. The Phase 3 clinical trial for the vaccine candidate that the company is developing with the University of Oxford was placed on hold in multiple countries over concern about an unexplained illness. The trial has already been restarted in the U.K.
    • Remark Holdings (MARK) jumped 39% in late-afternoon trading on Friday after the company tweeted that for the first time, the company is selling its technologies in partnership with Intel (INTC)
    • Joe Biden's remarks Thursday that he would seek to phase out oil stoked concerns among some oil and gas executives that a Democratic administration would further weigh down an industry hard hit by the coronavirus pandemic.
    • Salesforce.com (CRM) had a price target raised by Barclays from $264 to $315 at OVERWEIGHT. The stock is at $250 so implies a 25% upside! Very bullish call
    • Datadog (DDOG) had a price target raised by Barclays from $126 to $136 at OVERWEIGHT. Stock is at $102 so a 33% upside implied.
    • Discover Financial Services (DFS) had a price target raised by Deutsche Bank from $55 to $74 at HOLD, by Royal Bank of Canada from $61 to $75 at OUTPERFORM, and by BMO Capital from $76 to $80 at OUTPERFORM.
    • Danaher (DHR) had a price target raisraisede by Royal Bank of Canada from $250 to $273 at OUTPERFORM, and by Robert W. Baird from $205 to $252 at OUTPERFORM
    • Southwest Airlines (LUV) received some love today from analysts. The following raised price targets: Raymond James from $45 to $49 at STRONG BUY, Credit Suisse from $46 to $51 at OUTPERFORM, Cowen from $43 to $46 at OUTPERFORM, UBS Group from $48 to $52, and Morgan Stanley the most bullish from $56 to $59 at OVERWEIGHT. This chart looks so good! Believe there's an opportunity here.
    • Service Now (NOW) received a price target raised from $465 to $560 and from POSITIVE to OUTPERFORM. We really like this one, and its chart currently!
    • Microsoft (MSFT) received a price target raise from Barclays from $234 to $249 at OVERWEIGHT. We like this one.
    • The Boston Beer (SAM) has been nothing short of spectacular this year! Had a price target raised by Deutsche Bank from $835 to $996 at HOLD, and Smith Barney Citigroup raised target from $1,015 to $1,150. This is a crazy one as analysts can't seem to keep up with the stock!
    • Slack Technologies (WORK) received a price target raise from Barclays from $31 to $36 at OVERWEIGHT. The stock is at $28 so implies a 25% upside.

    "There are some things you learn best in calm, and some you learn best in a storm" -Willa Cather

    submitted by /u/psychotrader00
    [link] [comments]

    iPhone 12 launches in China to strong demand despite stiff competition for Apple in 5G smartphones

    Posted: 23 Oct 2020 06:28 AM PDT

    https://sg.news.yahoo.com/iphone-12-launches-china-strong-073637889.html

    Compared with last year's iPhone 11 line of phones, the iPhone 12 line is showing strong demand in China. The country is estimated to account for 35 to 45 per cent of global demand for the iPhone 12 Pro, according to a recent report from TF Securities International analyst Kuo Ming-Chi, who is known for his Apple analysis. There were between 7 million and 9 million pre-orders of the iPhone 12 and iPhone 12 Pro globally during the first weekend of sales, according to Kuo.

    The new iPhones have also proven to be a hot commodity on Chinese e-commerce sites. The available stock on JD.com sold out within 30 seconds after pre-orders started on October 16. And Alibaba, the parent company of the South China Morning Post, said that about 30 million users have searched for the new iPhones over the last 30 days on its Tmall marketplace. That is twice the search volume for the iPhone 11 in the same period last year.

    Sales of the iPhone 12 could be aided by the fact that it is the first iPhone to support 5G after Apple skipped the feature last year. Sales of the iPhone 12 and 12 Pro reached an estimated 1.7 to 2 million units globally in the first 24 hours of pre-orders. The three iPhone 11 models only saw 500,000 to 800,000 units sold in the same period after pre-orders opened in September last year, according to the report from Kuo.

    iphone demand in China is still strong, initial preorder data indicate that Apple will be gaining back more share in China. People are spending money in China to buy iphone because China is more 5g coverage available. These are bullish trend for apple stock.

    Thanks for the award.

    submitted by /u/coolcomfort123
    [link] [comments]

    TSLA price alert

    Posted: 23 Oct 2020 09:14 AM PDT

    Tesla currently trading a little below its 50 SMA. Based on previous price patterns this is the stock's support level. Rn might be a good time to think about entering/adding to your position and that's exactly what I did earlier today. Happy trading u all!

    submitted by /u/Muted-Acadia-2826
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    Day Trading: Why is American Airlines not following the same trend of Delta, Spirit, and Alaskan Airlines?

    Posted: 23 Oct 2020 12:43 PM PDT

    We had a pretty good assumption that airline stocks would fall this morning, after having a good day yesterday, and then rise throughout the day. Delta, Spirit and Alaskan Airlines all followed this trend, except for American Airlines. Why is that? I understand that all the companies are different, but as far as seeing a trend in the sector, American Airlines just didn't seem to follow that trend.

    submitted by /u/MyDogHasToes
    [link] [comments]

    Trading for others legally

    Posted: 23 Oct 2020 02:47 PM PDT

    I have been offered $50,000 to trade in the stock market on someone else's behalf, but know it's illegal to blatantly do so

    Why can't he pay me $50000, have him pay my taxes on it, then trade in the stock market for 3 years, and then give him the proceeds?

    submitted by /u/johngroger
    [link] [comments]

    Interactive Brokers, but with a better interface?

    Posted: 23 Oct 2020 05:39 PM PDT

    I love IBKR's tools, margin rates, offerings, and API access, but their interface and support are an absolute clusterfuck. They just need to make everything a bit more "Soigné"

    Do any other brokers match them in features, but have a better interface?

    submitted by /u/MarketMan123
    [link] [comments]

    Watchlist: 10/23 The Stimulus Carrot

    Posted: 23 Oct 2020 05:14 AM PDT

    Market Notes:

    We are in the home stretch of the election cycle. One full week of campaigning to go and the weekends on either side.

    New jobless claims are still high.

    The market was fairly choppy yesterday but end the day higher. The trend is still down.

    We continue to have elected leaders dangle the carrot of a stimulus package. But talks keep breaking down too. I'm not convinced we will get a stimulus. If we do it could be a buy the rumor sell the news situation.

    Futures are up. I'll give it 15-mins after the open to see what way the market decides to more.

    Watchlist:

    KBSF is a low float, watching for a setup above $4

    NVFY is a low float on watch

    CLPS is a low float, support at $4.75

    ZDGE is a low float, support at $1.75

    TC is a low float, on watch

    GME watching for a setup above $15

    CBAY has support at $8.70

    VLRS has support at $9

    EVRI has support at $9.50

    MGNI key level is at $9.60

    PBI key level at $7.40

    CNX has resistance at $12

    RRC has support at $9.30

    CLF has support at $8.20

    F has support at $8

    submitted by /u/tradingforkeeps
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    Significant Insider Trading Activity (Last 7 Days)

    Posted: 23 Oct 2020 11:28 AM PDT

    This is a list of the top 20 companies that experienced the largest change in insider shares in the last seven (7) days. The SEC defines an insider as any officer, director or 10% shareholder. It is not illegal for these people to buy or sell their own shares. In fact, since most of them get paid in stock options, it is expected. However, it is illegal for them to trade on inside information that has not been made public. So for example if there are drug trial results that are bad and not public, insiders cannot dump shares. That said, many people have observed that insiders - in general - seem to have a good track record at timing their purchases. All trades that are marked as part of a 10b5 plan are excluded from this report.

    Largest Insider Buying (Last 7 Days)

    Company Count Shares Changed Avg. Price Value Change
    BTWNU / Bridgetown Holdings Limited Units 1 5,000,000 10 50,000,000
    EAR / Eargo, Inc. 5 1,027,777 18 18,499,986
    ALGS / Aligos Therapeutics, Inc. 4 950,000 15 14,250,000
    TARS / Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 5 750,000 16 12,000,000
    EFT / Eaton Vance Floating-Rate Income Trust 4 549,472 13 7,018,789
    VTA / Invesco Dynamic Credit Opportunities Fund 2 602,072 9 5,631,032
    TMTS / TERWIN MORTGAGE TRUST TMTS 2003 6HE A3 3 560,000 10 5,599,700
    HLXA / Helix Acquisition Corp. Class A 1 430,000 10 4,300,000
    SELB / Selecta Biosciences, Inc. 2 1,669,500 2 3,808,195
    RADI / Radius Global Infrastructure, Inc. Class A 1 250,000 8 2,000,000
    ARYB / ARYA Sciences Acquisition Corp II Class A 2 157,295 10 1,576,838
    GBDC / Golub Capital BDC, Inc. 8 40,000 13 530,513
    TACO / Del Taco Restaurants, Inc. 3 67,400 7 504,518
    HIE / Miller/Howard High Income Equity Fund 2 59,023 6 369,484
    KTEL / KonaTel, Inc. 2 2,050,000 0 205,000
    FAF / First American Financial Corp. (The) 1 4,000 48 191,125
    TBK / Triumph Bancorp, Inc. 1 7,000 26 182,000
    HQL / Tekla Life Sciences Investors 1 5,950 18 105,606
    HQH / Tekla Healthcare Investors 1 5,050 21 104,427
    FAST / Fastenal Co. 2 1,550 44 68,865
    NDP / Tortoise Energy Independence Fund, Inc. 4 5,466 11 57,135
    NJMC / New Jersey Mining Company 1 250,000 0 50,000
    CADE / Cadence Bancorporation 1 4,000 12 48,440
    OPP / RiverNorth/DoubleLine Strategic Opportunity Fund, Inc. 3 3,100 15 46,172
    BIVI / BioVie, Inc. 1 5,000 9 45,950
    DTRC / Dakota Territory Resource Corp 2 92,000 0 37,526
    CAS / A.M. Castle & Co. 1 138,962 0 36,130
    ADMQ / ADM Endeavors Inc 15 533,684 0 29,846
    NTRP / Neurotrope, Inc. 2 25,000 1 27,500
    TPL / Texas Pacific Land Trust 4 56 471 26,379
    DCF / Dreyfus Alcentra Glb Cr Inc 2024 1 2,700 8 21,141
    VRUS / Verus International 1 25,109,375 0 20,088
    CCEL / CRYO-CELL International, Inc. 1 2,000 7 13,880
    TCON / TRACON Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 1 2,000 4 8,769
    SAFT / Safety Insurance Group, Inc. 1 100 68 6,800
    RCG / RENN Fund, Inc. 12 2,700 1 3,769
    KSF / KINGSWAY FINANCIAL SERVICES INC 3 1,120 3 3,529
    OVLY / Oak Valley Bancorp 1 125 16 2,000

    Largest Insider Selling (Last 7 Days)

    Company Count Shares Change Avg. Price Value Change
    BKR / Michael Baker Corp 1 -27,988,183 15 -417,303,809
    MA / MasterCard Incorporated 4 -120,400 334 -40,244,118
    PG / Procter & Gamble Co. (The) 6 -99,243 144 -14,271,377
    PSNL / Personalis, Inc. 2 -326,909 28 -9,081,588
    GSHD / Goosehead Insurance, Inc. 15 -75,267 111 -8,333,756
    MX / MagnaChip Semiconductor Corp 1 -425,000 14 -5,992,500
    K / Kellogg Co. 1 -83,334 67 -5,543,928
    VRSK / Verisk Analytics, Inc. 4 -27,433 190 -5,227,370
    SIBN / SI-BONE, Inc. 2 -198,327 24 -4,392,891
    PAYX / Paychex, Inc. 2 -51,606 84 -4,334,904
    STT / State Street Corp. 2 -62,183 66 -4,112,434
    PLAN / Anaplan, Inc. 1 -50,743 60 -3,044,555
    GRSH / Gores Holdings, Inc. 2 -214,090 13 -2,856,874
    FDX / FedEx Corp. 2 -8,795 290 -2,547,125
    APPF / AppFolio, Inc. 1 -12,413 159 -1,978,918
    LEVI / LEVI STRAUSS & CO 2 -119,401 16 -1,936,610
    AGM / Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corp. 3 -25,808 69 -1,785,533
    ARWR / Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 1 -29,166 54 -1,576,131
    FUL / Fuller (H.B.) Co. 2 -27,839 49 -1,366,697
    ISIG / Insignia Systems, Inc. 2 -997,799 1 -1,223,746
    MDLA / Medallia, Inc. 1 -32,391 31 -1,003,169
    MS / Morgan Stanley 5 -1,020,122 42 -986,884
    UMBF / UMB Financial Corp. 74 -17,600 56 -986,804
    PGR / Progressive Corp. (The) 1 -10,245 95 -971,933
    SNBR / Sleep Number Corporation 3 -14,374 64 -922,066
    PRTS / U.S. Auto Parts Network, Inc. 3 -70,000 13 -913,100
    LOVE / Lovesac Co 3 -24,151 35 -841,240
    SWAV / ShockWave Medical, Inc. 1 -9,500 79 -752,590
    GIS / General Mills, Inc. 1 -9,062 62 -558,129
    FLW / 1 800 FLOWERS COM INC 1 -17,850 29 -514,973
    ALLY / Ally Financial Inc. 2 -17,300 29 -502,090
    NEOG / Neogen Corp. 1 -6,666 71 -470,770
    TTEK / Tetra Tech, Inc. 1 -15,000 29 -431,378
    SIVB / SVB Financial Group 1 -1,495 280 -418,600
    KBH / KB Home 1 -9,248 41 -376,671
    ATSG / Air Transport Services Group, Inc. 1 -10,000 29 -293,900
    AMCI / AMCI Acquisition Corp. 1 -25,000 10 -258,750
    PURE / PURE Bioscience 1 -748,880 0 -217,175

    Count column is number of transactions.

    Source: Fintel.io/insiders

    submitted by /u/badpauly
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    Question about Options Trading (Robinhood).

    Posted: 23 Oct 2020 02:40 PM PDT

    Hey guys and gals!

    So I have a little $cha-ching$ to spend. I've spent on long-term stocks (YOLO Tesla) and looking to spend on CALL options, sometime next year.

    I had a couple of questions that I was hoping the best community in the world could help me with:

    1. If I exercise a CALL option contract (say 100 shares) because I've accrued a big profit, do I need funds in my robinhood account to purchase the 100 shares or does Robinhood directly give me the profits.
    2. Same question but with exercising a PUT.
    submitted by /u/ExclusivelyHuman
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    Is Snowflake Stock Overvalued?

    Posted: 23 Oct 2020 01:44 PM PDT

    Cloud data-warehousing company has been one of most-followed IPOs of 2020, started trading at an opening price of $245 the largest public-debut of this year

    Snowflake's revenue for Q2 FY21 was $133 million. A year ago, the number had been $60 million, and for the six months ended July 31 and 2020, revenue was $104.0 million and $242.0 million, respectively. It meant a YoY growth of 133%.

    More: http://focusinvesting.biz

    submitted by /u/DaVibes
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    Advice on portfolio

    Posted: 23 Oct 2020 09:29 AM PDT

    Canadian investor withba tfsa, currently own the following

    2 sharss MSFT 4 shares AAPL 4 shares AMD 5 shares ARKW 5 shares SPWR 4 shares ARKK 4 shares NET 2 shares BCE 3 shares BLX 2 shares CNR 2 shares ICLN 10 shares WELL 13 shares XBC 2 shares CRSR

    my portfolio is around tech/clean energy/future innovation.

    I was heavily thinking of just selling everything else and putting it into long term etfs liks VTI and then putting into individual sectors like arkk, arkw, icln etc

    should i just keep the things i have right now?, all look promising, will gradually buy every month or two a few more shares of etfs or blue chips like msft

    Im still relatively new to this, started late september and im 18. Put some money that was laying around doing nothing to maybe benefit me during the later years.

    If i wanted long term just sell everything and buy etfs??? Or dump more into etfs while still attiaing current stocks

    submitted by /u/indigo501
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    New Study Proves Beyond Any Shadow of a Doubt That Day-Trading For a Living Is IMPOSSIBLE!

    Posted: 23 Oct 2020 01:12 PM PDT

    Have you been dreaming of quitting your day job to trade stocks? If you have, it looks like you might have to put those early retirement plans to rest, because according to a new Brazilian study conducted on thousands of individuals over a period of two years, you simply can't day trade long term anymore. It is literally impossible.

    Why?

    Today, you're playing against thousands of artificially intelligent supercomputers! The study concluded that you have a 3% chance of success, which translates into a 97% rate of failure.

    Full report

    EDIT: Just to get an idea of what your up against when you day trade, check out this video of Google's new artificially intelligent chess program, Deep Mind. You don't even need to play chess to understand the brilliance. It's skynet...(used to be an avid chess player online, so trust me when I say this: it is literally.. skynet)

    submitted by /u/interestingstuff6
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    What is Bearish Rounding Top?

    Posted: 23 Oct 2020 12:42 PM PDT

    Rounding top is also known as "reversed saucer", it has a U-shaped peak. The peak is round like in a "U" , with a flat bottom. ⠀
    ⠀
    The rounding top may signal both bullish or bearish continuation pattern. ⠀
    ⠀
    The price objective is calculated in accordance with the pendulum rule – a trader must measure the depth of the U and then plot that on the neck line.⠀
    ⠀
    Follow 👉@asktraderscom⠀

    submitted by /u/AskTradersTeam
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    SNAP price alert

    Posted: 23 Oct 2020 12:37 PM PDT

    Snapchat is currently trading at a daily RSI of 92. Going off that, this is a good time to start entering a short position on SNAP for a quick swing trade. If you are currently holding SNAP, right now is a good time to lock in some profits. The ROI should be at least 10% based on trading patterns of similar stocks that made such huge jumps in a short period of time. A good exit point would be when the daily RSI drops to around 65. For the traders out there with higher risk tolerance you can start buying some short period put options. Just remember to take a position with which you are comfortable and have good risk management. Happy trading!

    submitted by /u/Muted-Acadia-2826
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    [SAM] Beats Estimates Will sector Follow?

    Posted: 23 Oct 2020 07:54 AM PDT

    Per the title, what are the thoughts on the sector. I was/am expecting it to be flat, SAM would just be an outlier. Also expect the current and next quarter to be bad.

    submitted by /u/Haagen76
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    ZM, Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend on Oct 22, 2020.

    Posted: 23 Oct 2020 11:39 AM PDT

    Significant Activist Hedge Fund Activity (Last 7 Days)

    Posted: 23 Oct 2020 11:28 AM PDT

    These are the latest Schedule 13D forms filed by activist investors in the last 7 days. Activist investors are investors that make an investment with the intention of influencing management in some way. There is evidence that following activist investors into investments can generate excess returns. Schedule 13G forms, in contrast, are filed by significant investors with no intention of influencing management (such as Index funds).

    There is always a lot of interest in insider trades, but what a lot of people probably don't realize is that hedge fund activity is probably more predictive of future returns than insider activity. The reason is that hedge funds (a) have large research budgets, and (b) have a choice where to put their money. In contract, insiders have no choice where to put their money, but only when to time their transactions.

    New Filings

    This table lists new 13D filings in the last week. A new filing does not necessarily indicate a new position, as investors frequently accumulate in advance before reaching the filing threshold.

    Date Form Company Investor Shares Ownership Change
    10‑23 13D GTXMQ / GARRETT MOTION INC BAUPOST GROUP LLC/MA 3,575,000 4.73%
    10‑23 13D SPRB / Spruce Biosciences, Inc. RiverVest Venture Fund III, L.P. 2,148,281 9.3%
    10‑22 13D SPI / SPI Energy Co Ltd He Jilun 1,296,370 7.3%
    10‑22 13D HBP / Huttig Building Products, Inc. 22NW, LP 2,133,291 7.9%
    10‑22 13D SAQN / Software Acquisition Group Inc. Class A Hendricks Factual Media LLC 20,989,232 55.3%
    10‑22 13D ALGS / Aligos Therapeutics, Inc. Novo Holdings A/S 2,614,563 7.7%
    10‑22 13D RESI / Altisource Residential Corp Deer Park Road Management Company, LP 8,682,494 14.8% 0.00
    10‑21 13D HLIX / Helix TCS, Inc. Forian Inc. 47,267,887 39.6%
    10‑21 13D ONCR / Oncorus, Inc. MPM BioVentures 2014, L.P. 5,296,279 24.2%
    10‑21 13D VTA / Invesco Dynamic Credit Opportunities Fund Saba Capital Management, L.P. 7,080,122 11.2% 4.67
    10‑19 13D ACIW / ACI Worldwide, Inc. Starboard Value LP 10,475,112 9.0%
    10‑19 13D LEE / Lee Enterprises, Inc. Bonte Ann N. %
    10‑16 13D WETM / Westmountain Alternative Energy, Inc. Badders Jeff 132,773,522 39.0% 73.33
    10‑16 13D SPRB / Spruce Biosciences, Inc. Novo Holdings A/S 4,989,336 21.5%
    10‑16 13D CCCC / Cache Capital Corp. COBRO VENTURES OPPORTUNITY FUND, L.P. 4,341,930 10.1%
    10‑16 13D SPRB / Spruce Biosciences, Inc. Abingworth LLP 1,792,518 7.7%
    10‑16 13D SCHW / Schwab Charles Corp TORONTO DOMINION BANK 177,604,934 9.87%
    10‑16 13D ONCR / Oncorus, Inc. Flynn James E 2,848,970 13.04%

    Amended Filings

    This table lists amended filings in the last week, and is useful for monitoring changes in existing investments or when a fund closes a position. I have eliminated all filings with less than a 5% change in ownership.

    Date Form Company Investor Shares Ownership Change
    10‑23 13D/A LMFA / LM Funding America, Inc. BZ Industrial Ltd 520,833 3.63% -74.60
    10‑23 13D/A KTEL / KonaTel, Inc. McEwen David S 12,100,000 54.4% -32.08
    10‑23 13D/A BKR / Michael Baker Corp GENERAL ELECTRIC CO 349,439,701 33.8% -7.40
    10‑23 13D/A BLU / BELLUS HEALTH INC ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC 3,954,800 5.2% -21.21
    10‑22 13D/A AFI / Armstrong Flooring, Inc. GAMCO INVESTORS, INC. ET AL 2,008,796 9.3% 17.28
    10‑22 13D/A HFFG / HF Foods Group Inc. Ni Zhou Min 5,553,096 10.7% -56.33
    10‑22 13D/A TKC / Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S. TELIA Co AB 0 0.0%
    10‑22 13D/A BCOM / B Communications Ltd INTERNET GOLD GOLDEN LINES LTD 0 0.0% -100.00
    10‑22 13D/A TKC / Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S. Letterone Investment Holdings S.a.r.l. 545,600,000 24.8% -51.37
    10‑21 13D/A FIII / Forum Merger III Corporation Class A Common stock Forum Investors III LLC 6,866,250 21.5%
    10‑21 13D/A PNM / PNM Resources, Inc. GAMCO INVESTORS, INC. ET AL 2,075,210 2.6%
    10‑21 13D/A SGMS / Scientific Games Corp. MacAndrews & Forbes Inc. 3,960,601 4.2% -35.38
    10‑21 13D/A FIZN / First Citizens Bancshares, Inc. HOLDING FRANK B JR 729,922 8.28%
    10‑21 13D/A 640671400 / Nephros Inc PESSIN NORMAN H 489,435 1.8%
    10‑21 13D/A INTZ / Intrusion, Inc. PAXTON MICHAEL L 2,079,956 12.3% -32.42
    10‑21 13D/A CEL / Cellcom Israel, Ltd. DISCOUNT INVESTMENT CORP LTD 78,477,620 48.21% -5.34
    10‑21 13D/A LOVE / Lovesac Co HEYER ANDREW R 2,325,989 15.85% -10.15
    10‑21 13D/A NESR / National Energy Services Reunited Corp. Mubbadrah Investment LLC 13,269,826 15.2% -10.59
    10‑20 13D/A EXP / Eagle Materials, Inc. Sachem Head Capital Management LP 1,942,834 4.65% -16.96
    10‑20 13D/A AHT / Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc. Cygnus Capital, Inc. 1,214,630 9.3% 12.05
    10‑20 13D/A AHCO / AdaptHealth Corp. Class A Assured Investment Management LLC 3,647,353 6.5% -18.75
    10‑20 13D/A RESI / Altisource Residential Corp Altisource Portfolio Solutions S.A. 2,725,069 4.6% -22.03
    10‑19 13D/A GRSHU / Gores Holdings, Inc. Hostess CDM Co-Invest, LLC 5,841,205 4.5% -11.76
    10‑19 13D/A NIU / Niu Technologies GGV Capital V L.P. 10,998,353 8.4% -13.40
    10‑19 13D/A APRN / Blue Apron Holdings Inc Salzberg Barry 1,866,147 11.8% -36.56
    10‑19 13D/A GRIF / Griffin Industrial Realty, Inc. GAMCO INVESTORS, INC. ET AL 631,080 11.16% -10.51
    10‑19 13D/A SLGD / Scott's Liquid Gold, Inc. Maran Partners Fund, LP 1,620,070 13.0% 128.07
    10‑19 13D/A DMB / Dreyfus Municipal Bond Infrastructure Fund, Inc. BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ 0 0.0% -100.00
    10‑16 13D/A LMB / Limbach Holdings, Inc. Pratt Brian 1,044,988 13.25% -12.14
    10‑16 13D/A MCHX / Marchex, Inc. Harbert Discovery Fund, LP 1,882,374 5.4% -6.90
    10‑16 13D/A TLRY / Tilray, Inc. Kennedy Brendan 13,706,097 10.1% -17.21
    10‑16 13D/A SGMS / Scientific Games Corp. MacAndrews & Forbes Inc. 6,192,742 6.5% -30.11
    10‑16 13D/A LCUT / Lifetime Brands, Inc. Mill Road Capital II, L.P. 1,568,203 7.2% -8.86
    10‑16 13D/A CPSI / Computer Programs & Systems, Inc. Gilead Capital LP 12,852 0.0% -100.00
    10‑16 13D/A RGS / Regis Corp. Birch Run Capital Advisors, LP 10,672,706 29.9% 68.93

    Source: Fintel.io/activists

    submitted by /u/badpauly
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    Sprout Social (SPT) Analysis

    Posted: 23 Oct 2020 07:36 AM PDT

    Hi all,

    Here's my deep-dive on Sprout.

    Happy to discuss and please let me know why you think I'm wrong ;)

    ​

    Investment Thesis

    Sprout is a growing technology company operating in the content management industry. They have seen significant growth in revenues, with an increase of 75.43% and 30.43% in core revenues for 2018 and 2019 respectively.

    We expect their revenues to grow at a slightly slower rate as the market for social media content software matures, and market entrants are able to take market share.

    Sprout has been unable to maintain an effective moat, keeping it unable to reach profitability.

    Thesis: Because of Sprout's inability to differentiate itself through either product or target market, their spend on marketing and advertising will continue to outpace its revenue growth and keep it from profitability.

    For these reasons, we believe Sprout is significantly overvalued.

    Company Overview

    Sprout Social was founded and had its first round of funding for $1 million in 2010. The product, Sprout 2.0, was launched the following year. Since then, Sprout has grown to nearly $103 million in annual sales as of 2019.

    Sprout has come about in a competitive industry and struggled to establish an effective moat. However, the brand is well known by users and potential customers. It is easily identifiable by its leaf logo.

    Sprout operates as a content management system for social media sites. The site offers easy-to-use software and visually appealing dashboards and reports. Also offered is analytics for marketing campaigns on the social sites.

    The software allows for content management across Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Pinterest, LinkedIn, Google, and Youtube. It allows for post scheduling, engagement, and analytics across all platforms.

    Having a centralized location for all of these features for a marketing team allows for stronger review of the effectiveness of social media campaigns and easier collaboration for marketing teams.

    Sprout offers its products on a per-user basis and opens up plenty of opportunity to upsell either additional features, or add on users.

    In addition to subscription revenue, Sprout also generates revenue from professional services fees. These are primarily implementation costs by Sprout's technical teams.

    The company has not done much in the way of finding a niche. However, it does have different offerings for small businesses and larger enterprises on its site.

    Sprout seems to want to appeal to all sizes of companies as it grows. Given the competitive industry, this may not be an effective strategy long-term.

    Industry Overview

    The industry that Sprout operates in – social media content management- is relatively new on the scene. Sprout was one of the earlier contenders in the space and managed to grow to a respectable size.

    Like all those in the social media space, Sprout's dashboards are sleek and their software is easy-to-use. Because of this, it's had high user scores and customer retention.

    These are definitely points for a higher valuation for Sprout, but there is nothing that Sprout has that is unique to them in this sense.

    All the points that Sprout maintains for strong user experience, their competitors do too. It is simply expected of the companies in the industry now, not a standout feature.

    Sprout has many competitors, but their most notable ones would be Hootsuite and Hubspot.

    Of these, Hubspot appears to be best for smaller companies. Their starting price point is much lower than Hootsuite at $50/month compared to Hootsuite's $190/month.

    Despite this, Hootsuite claims to cater to smaller and medium-sized companies.

    Sprout targets both large and small companies, but because they have not identified a niche, they are likely to lose market share to Hootsuite in the small business market with their lower entry price point.

    Also troubling for Sprout is their lack of transparency. Of the three, Sprout is the only one that does not offer a minimum price on their website.

    Again, this could cause a loss in the small business market. But it would be less likely to lose market share in the more sophisticated large business market, where potential users would be more willing to ask for a consultation for pricing and customization.

    Strengths

    Sprout has a strong balance sheet and cash position. This strength, however, points to a hidden weakness. The company is about ten years old, and in that time, it is still funded primarily through rounds of equity funding, not positive operating cash flow.

    This means it has not reached profitability yet, and its cash burn reflects that. Despite the negative operating and investing cash flows, Sprout's 2019 IPO funding should keep its balance sheet and cash position stable for at least a few more years, even if it cannot reach positive cash flows.

    Another strength of Sprout's is its revenue growth rate. High growth is expected for a new technology company, however. Its core revenues grew a staggering 75.43% and 30.43% for years 2018 and 2019, respectively.

    Weaknesses

    For Sprout's weaknesses, we can compare operating results to competing companies to see where they may be underperforming in the broader industry.

    Sprout's gross profit appears strong, with a gross margin hovering around 25% over years 2017-2019. It increases slightly from year to year.

    Cost of revenue consists primarily of hosting costs and providing support to customers on the platform.

    While this margin would be very admirable for a company offering a tangible product, software companies are generally expected to maintain lower gross profit margins.

    For comparison, Hubspot's gross profit margin is 19.26% for 2019. This leads us to believe Hubspot is more efficient in offering its products and services to its customers than Sprout is.

    Hubspot's average annual growth rate in its core revenues hovers around 30-40%. Although this rate is slightly lower than Sprout posted in 2018 of 75.43%, it controls significantly more market share.

    Hubspot's 2019 revenues were $674 million, compared to Sprout's $103 million.

    Given that Sprout is significantly smaller than Hubspot, we would expect Sprout's revenues to be growing at a faster rate than Hubspot since there is more market share available for Sprout to take.

    This leads us to believe there are inefficiencies in the marketing department for Sprout that are hampering its growth potential. It also appears there are operational inefficiencies reducing its ability to improve its profit margin.

    Opportunities

    The industry is expected to grow at a CAGR of 14.1%, and we forecasted Sprout's revenues at a generous range of growth from 50% to 17% CAGR over a ten year period.

    Sprout's primary opportunities will come from the growth in the industry around it. The other opportunity it should benefit from is its age and the benefits that it affords. This will primarily come from its contacts at larger companies.

    Sprout should see sufficient cross-selling opportunities in the companies it already transacts with. And the fact that it utilizes a per-user pricing model means that as a client of theirs grows, the more users it may need to license.

    Customer build-up and increased user licenses means customer retention will be increasingly important. Luckily for Sprout, this is already one of their strong points. Out of 1,326 reviews, Sprout has maintained a user score of 4.3 / 5 stars.

    Customer retention should over time reduce marketing and sales spending, as this is such a large component of their total expenses. In 2019, marketing and sales spending represented more than 45% of total expenses.

    Keeping this amount in check over time should significantly increase the chance of profitability.

    Threats

    Sprout's primary threat is its inability to gain significant market share. Its marketing spend appears to be less effective than its competitor Hubspot.

    Hubspot expands its selling and marketing expenses by roughly 25-30% per year, whereas Sprout's expands at roughly 50% per year. Despite this, Hubspot is growing at a comparable rate to Sprout even though it controls roughly 6x as much market share.

    If Sprout is unable to gain more market share in a reasonable time period going forward, profitability will be out of reach. Their cash burn rate for 2019 was nearly 33%, and without more rounds of funding they could be facing a liquidity problem within a few years.

    Valuation

    We forecasted Sprout's growth rate at a rate from 50% declining down to 17% CAGR over the next ten years. Because of the information above, marketing and advertising were kept at a high CAGR as well. We then discounted free cash flows back to present at a 15% rate to account for Sprout's volatility as a young and unprofitable company.

    This gave us a NPV of $3.23 per share, significantly lower than its current share price as of 10/22/2020 ($49.46).

    We encourage you to do your own valuation and compare. Thanks for reading!

    submitted by /u/smallcapconnoisseur
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    The Great Merger Movement: 1895–1905

    Posted: 23 Oct 2020 10:57 AM PDT

    (Wikipedia) "The Great Merger Movement was a predominantly U.S. business phenomenon that happened from 1895 to 1905. During this time, small firms with little market share consolidated with similar firms to form large, powerful institutions that dominated their markets, such as the Standard Oil Company, which at its height controlled nearly 90% of the global oil refinery industry. It is estimated that more than 1,800 of these firms disappeared into consolidations, many of which acquired substantial shares of the markets in which they operated". Read more

    submitted by /u/interestingstuff6
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    HUGE GILD STOCK NEWS! | FDA APPROVAL TO TREAT COVID-19

    Posted: 22 Oct 2020 11:46 PM PDT

    Gilead Sciences will rocket after this news, especially with the covid 2nd wave!

    ​

    if ya want here is an analysis, earnings are 28th btw: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_qDtdWzuc_c

    submitted by /u/Petesonhm
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    Intel Shares Tumbled After Reported Weaker Server Cpu Revenue

    Posted: 23 Oct 2020 03:05 AM PDT

    Intel Corp. shares slumped after reported its server CPU unit's enterprise and government sales fell 47%, more than offsetting higher sales to cloud and telco clients.

    On Thursday afternoon, the chip giant reported Q3 revenue of $18.33 billion (down 4% annually) and non-GAAP EPS of $1.11. Revenue slightly topped an $18.24 billion FactSet consensus, while EPS was in-line with consensus, the stock tumble post-earnings for the second quarter in a row

    More http://focusinvesting.biz/

    submitted by /u/DaVibes
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    Investing in emerging market small cap equities

    Posted: 23 Oct 2020 07:54 AM PDT

    Hi guys, i am trying to build up long-term equities based on high-risk/high-reward equities. I trying to invest in areas that i think will be winners in the future (+10 year perspective). Besides investing in ETF's and specific companies in specific sectors, i also want to invest in emerging markets with a mix of amongst other, small cap stocks and ETF's.

    So my question is, what ressources, online communities, websites, news sources, twitter profiles etc would you recommend for, an admittedly new beginner, in the field of the subjects i have raised. I have already found some courses and other material for the basic stuff, so dont recommend reading the intelligent investor or Investopedia.

    submitted by /u/invictax
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    Any Entrepreneurs turned in to Traders ? I am in transition. What do you think of my hypothesis ?

    Posted: 23 Oct 2020 07:21 AM PDT

    So upon launching 3 failed businesses and one successful in the past 7 years, I figured out I am not a good fit in managing people because I am very raw and doesn't like to go around the bushes. People don't like that since it hits their ego. So I created more enemies than friends and my energy has been depleting.

    However, I've also learned that I am very hard worker, ambitious, risk taker (and risk manager), and very patient. I love maths, physics, finance(crypto too), can code well and love to make money. Last but not least, I tend to be very peaceful in most situations.

    So I was experimenting with trading the past 2 years(5hrs/week) and feels like I deal with THE MARKET (which has some sort of patterns) compared to dealing with multiple individuals in business (whose patterns can't be determined). So far thing has been okay since I was just investing little money but now need to make a slow but steady moves to add more to my portfolio.

    Cons
    - Less leverage since I won't be raising money. Yes I can do leverage trading but you are the only risk taker compared to a star-up who has multiple risk takers.

    Pros
    - I only deal with myself, the market, and a few softwares.
    - You can join like minded people to share ideas but you are being responsible for your own.
    Is my hypothesis correct and could lead me a better life balance compared to running my own biz ?

    All I am seeking is peaceful work while making good $$ !!

    submitted by /u/timimax
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