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    Friday, October 30, 2020

    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing

    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing


    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.

    Posted: 29 Oct 2020 05:09 AM PDT

    If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions. If you are going to ask how to invest you should include relevant information, such as the following:

    • How old are you?
    • Are you employed/making income? How much?
    • What are your objectives with this money? (buy a house? Retirement savings?)
    • What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
    • What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors?)
    • Any other assets? House paid off? Cars? Expensive significant other?
    • What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
    • Any big debts?
    • Any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer.

    Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq

    Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Amazon beats, Earnings: $12.37 vs $7.41 expected, Revenue: $96.15b vs $92.7b expected

    Posted: 29 Oct 2020 01:16 PM PDT

    (CNBC) Amazon reported better-than-expected third-quarter results after the bell on Thursday, including soaring profits and 37% revenue growth.

    The stock bounced around in extended trading after Amazon provided a wide guidance range for the fourth quarter.

    • Earnings: $12.37 vs $7.41 per share expected, according to analysts surveyed by Refinitiv
    • Revenue: $96.15 billion vs $92.7 billion expected, according to analysts surveyed by Refinitiv

    Amazon said sales in the fourth quarter will be between $112 billion and $121 billion, which comes out to growth of 28% to 38% from a year earlier. Analysts were expecting revenue of $112.3 billion.

    The company forecast operating income of $1 billion to $4.5 billion, assuming about $4.0 billion of costs tied to COVID-19. That's a step up from the second quarter, when Amazon said it would spend more than $2 billion on coronavirus-related measures, including procuring personal protective equipment, enhanced cleaning of its facilities and wage increases.

    Amazon continues to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the pandemic, as consumers flocked to the site for essential goods, groceries and household items. Amazon is expected to face even greater demand heading into the holiday season, with shoppers likely to do the bulk of their gift buying online instead of making trips to the store.

    "We're seeing more customers than ever shopping early for their holiday gifts, which is just one of the signs that this is going to be an unprecedented holiday season," Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos said in a statement.

    Bezos also touted Amazon's recent job creation and treatment of warehouse workers, which has been a subject of scrutiny in recent months. The Amazon CEO pointed to Amazon's $15 minimum wage and challenged other large employers to "make the jump to $15."

    Amazon is one of few companies that has continued to grow its headcount amid a broader economic downturn due to the coronavirus crisis. The company now counts more than 1.12 million full-time employees across the globe, an increase of 50% year over year. That figure doesn't include Amazon's network of contractors and temporary workers.

    Amazon's cloud-computing unit, Amazon Web Services, generated sales of $11.6 billion for the quarter, up 29% year over year and in line with analysts' estimates, according to FactSet. Operating income in the segment of $3.54 billion topped estimates of $3.45 billion. The segment was helped by millions of people working from home.

    The company's "other" category, which is primarily comprised of its advertising business, saw revenue of $5.4 billion, up 51% year over year. Subscription services, which includes revenue from Prime memberships, climbed 33% year over year to $6.58 billion.

    Once again, third-party sales grew more than Amazon's first-party business. Third-party sales increased 55% year-over-year, while first-party sales grew 38% year-over-year. Sales fell 10% in Amazon's physical store unit, which includes Whole Foods Market.

    Amazon shares are up 74% this year, the best performance among the five most valuable U.S. tech companies.

    Three of those companies — Apple, Alphabet and Facebook — also reported quarterly results after the bell on Thursday and all exceeded analysts' estimates.

    Amazon will hold a call with investors to discuss its third-quarter results starting at 5:30 p.m. ET.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/29/amazon-amzn-earnings-q3-2020.html

    submitted by /u/esiebelb
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    GDP data for third quarter in: 33.1% increase

    Posted: 29 Oct 2020 05:36 AM PDT

    This comes after a contraction of 31.4% in the second quarter.

    Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 33.1 percent in the third quarter of 2020 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 31.4 percent.

    Press release here: https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-2020-advance-estimate

    submitted by /u/legitqu
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    Amazon reports sales growth of 37%, topping estimates. Is there any end to this mammoth growth ? The company already valued at $1.61 Trillion and still growing as it's a start-up, fucking Insane.

    Posted: 29 Oct 2020 02:28 PM PDT

    India has a GDP of $3 Trillion which makes her the 5th largest economy and it's growing 5-6% per annum. But here we have the Amazon.com valued at $1.61 Trillion and growing above 30% each quarter. I know, I know it's foolish to compare a company with a country but the serious question is, how long it can continue to grow with the same pace ? Somewhere in 2018-19, Jeff Bezos said, one day will come when Amazon will go bankrupt as a retail company doesn't last longer more than 30 years. By his judgement only 10 years are left for the company but I don't see it go anywhere in next 30 years. But anyway, I guess, he is the man who created this empire and only he knows what can go wrong. Also, I wonder, the company's large revenue comes from United States and thus which businesses are getting affected due to this exponential growth of Amazon ? If any of my fellow American reddit user could share some insights on this, it would be helpful.

    submitted by /u/PirateInvestor
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    To the redditor who put his life savings in $NIO a year ago

    Posted: 29 Oct 2020 02:45 PM PDT

    I was googling $NIO out of curiosity to see if they're using Tesla's patents for their EVs and saw a post on this sub from "u/ProbablyDoesntLikeU", who put their life savings in NIO last year and asked "is this a bad idea?"

    If you see this, are you rich rich now?

    submitted by /u/Flippytopboomtown
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    Alphabet up 8% after ER

    Posted: 29 Oct 2020 02:15 PM PDT

    Alphabet is higher after hours (GOOG +8.4%, GOOGL +7.6%) following Q3 earnings where it easily surpassed Street estimates thanks to broad revenue growth and (notably) increased ad spend in Search and YouTube, signs the ad recovery has taken hold.

    Revenues rose 14% to $46.17B; they were up 15% in constant currency.

    Operating income rose 24% to $11.21B, and net income jumped to $11.25B from a year-ago $7.07B.

    Revenue by segment: Google Search & other, $26.34B (up 6.5%); YouTube ads, $5.04B (up 32.4%); Google Network Members properties, $5.72B (up 8.9%); Google Cloud, $3.44B (up 44.5%); Google other, $5.48B (up 35.3%); Other Bets, $178M (up 14.8%).

    Cash and equivalents were $20.1B at quarter-end, vs. $18.5B as of Dec. 31.

    https://seekingalpha.com/news/3628566-alphabet-jumps-on-easy-q3-beat-ad-spend-surging-recovery

    submitted by /u/Omg_Keynes
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    How do billionaires sell a lot of stock without crashing the price?

    Posted: 29 Oct 2020 12:06 PM PDT

    I assume when Jeff Bezos sells $1 billion in Amazon stock to fund Blue Origin, he doesn't put a market sell order for 500k shares on Robinhood (can you even have a $1 billion account on Robinhood?).

    Do they hire full time traders to sell their shares over time to not affect the price? Do they sell all the shares at once to an investment bank which then figures out how to liquidate it? Can HFT firms frontrun the sale by selling their shares first and buying them back after the price goes down?

    submitted by /u/SFTechFIRE
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    Royal Caribbean Cruises Revenues down 101% YoY

    Posted: 29 Oct 2020 05:20 AM PDT

    Royal Caribbean Cruises (NYSE:RCL): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of -$5.62 misses by $0.67; GAAP EPS of -$6.29 misses by $1.27.

    Revenue of -$33.67M (-101.1% Y/Y) misses by $42.38M.

    The company expects capital expenditures of $0.5B for Q4 and $2.1B for FY2020.

    The company expects to incur a net loss on both a US GAAP and adjusted basis for Q4 and FY2020.

    submitted by /u/Omg_Keynes
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    Apple down 4% after ER

    Posted: 29 Oct 2020 02:16 PM PDT

    Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) shares are down 3.7% AH following fiscal Q4 beats on the top and bottom lines, offset by the downside iPhone revenue, which was widely expected due to the pause in consumer buying ahead of the delayed iPhone 12 launch.

    Q4 revenue was up 1% Y/Y to $64.69B, $1.35B above consensus, and EPS of $0.73 topped estimates by $0.03.

    Revenue breakdown: iPhone, $26.4B (consensus: $27.73B); iPad, $6.8B (consensus: $6.14B); Mac, all-time high of $9.03B (consensus: $7.93B);Wearables, Home and Accessories, $7.9B (consensus: $7.23B); Services, all-time high of $14.5B (consensus: $14.12B).

    Overall gross margin was 38% (consensus: 38.1%). Services margin was 67.2% (consensus: 66.5%) and Products came in at 29.7% (consensus: 30%).

    "Our outstanding September quarter performance concludes a remarkable fiscal year, where we established new all-time records for revenue, earnings per share, and free cash flow, in spite of an extremely volatile and challenging macro environment. Our sales results and the unmatched loyalty of our customers drove our active installed base of devices to an all-time high in all of our major product categories. We also returned nearly $22 billion to shareholders during the quarter, as we maintain our target of reaching a net cash neutral position over time," says CFO Luca Maestri.

    https://seekingalpha.com/news/3628714-weak-iphone-sales-drive-apple-shares-lower-after-fq4-beats-services-macs-hit-new-records

    submitted by /u/Omg_Keynes
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    How is no one on here discussing the IMFs “New Bretton Woods” or the WEFs The Great Reset

    Posted: 29 Oct 2020 11:14 PM PDT

    These are the largest macro economic changes going on right now that mark an end of neoliberalism and deregulated 'free' markets that will be happening regardless of the election outcome, and we should be discussing what that means for our financial safety.

    submitted by /u/a1Drummer07
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    ELI5: How are stocks valued with fundamentals?

    Posted: 30 Oct 2020 01:22 AM PDT

    Hi all,

    With lots of talk about overvalued tech, I've come to find myself unable to find any easy to understand guides to valuing share prices.

    I've seen people using past earning reports, and expected growth, p/e etc. But no one shows what exactly they are doing to find the real value, and how they come to conclusions.

    I know people do it differently but could someone give some simple steps to valuation.

    submitted by /u/Lknight0
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    [FSLY] Ark Investment continues to buy in Fastly shares. What Am I missing here?

    Posted: 29 Oct 2020 10:28 PM PDT

    Ark Investmennt have been continuously buying in Fastly despite it being ~21% below its 1 month average. Although I have Fastly shares I am apprehensive of buying more into it. After tiktok debacle I am not sure how much can fastly emerge. Why is Ark so bullish on it?

    submitted by /u/anotherRedditor2020
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    Is this a good first time rental investment?

    Posted: 29 Oct 2020 11:12 PM PDT

    I am 31 years old and live in Reno, Nevada which is growing like crazy because all the big tech companies and Californians moving in. I recently purchased a new build home with a price of $342,000 (The price for the next same home went up to $352k the day after I signed. The builder gave me a good interest rate of 2.75% and 5k off closing cost, so my down payment is about $73,000 after closing. The current rental for the same home is at $1850-1900. My monthly cost will be about $1350 which includes mortgage, taxes, HOA, etc.

    So that means my cash flow is about $500 dollars a month. The cash rate of return from my monthly rental income/down payment is a little over 8%. Was this a good deal for a first time rental investment noob?

    Another question...I have no debt and I can pay it off if I throw all my cash on it, but I decided to put it in the stock market (mostly SP 500) because I figured the world will be better place in a few years. Would you guys pay it off or just keep it invested to diversify since the interest is so low?

    Thanks Reddit Fam!

    submitted by /u/S2DanielC
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    How will Lemonade grow? LMND

    Posted: 30 Oct 2020 04:01 AM PDT

    So I'm invested in Lemonade and the stock has been dropping significantly recently. While i believe in the company and their genius business model, i cant help but wonder how will it possibly grow while they are giving away their profits to charity? Revenues will increase but will profits dictate their stock value?

    submitted by /u/ramyaz
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    Favorite non-tech stock

    Posted: 29 Oct 2020 11:42 PM PDT

    Hi guys,

    There has been an thread on this subreddit a while ago, where people wrote their favorite non-tech stock (with explanation why), so I would like to repeat that, to help each other.

    So, do tell about your favorite non-tech stock and why you picked it.

    submitted by /u/SloVit79
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    The board of directors as the enemy

    Posted: 30 Oct 2020 12:18 AM PDT

    This (from some company's 10-k) reads as if the board of directors is the enemy of a Common Stock holder:

    Our board of directors is authorized, without action of the shareholders, to issue (i) additional shares of Common Stock, subject to certain limitations under the New York Stock Exchange listing standards and the Louisiana Business Corporation Act, and (ii) additional shares of preferred stock with rights and preferences designated by the board of directors, which could include terms adversely affecting the rights of holders of the Common Stock.

    From another:

    limit or eliminate any payments that the holders of our common stock could expect to receive upon our liquidation; or

    Why would anyone give a dollar to such a company? Or is there any other legal protection for a Common Stock holder typically present?

    For example, what stops the board from issuing a single preferential share that can be exchanged for a trillion common stock shares under the condition that the sun comes up the next day (which is a very important event /s )?

    submitted by /u/audion00ba
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    Best financial data sources

    Posted: 29 Oct 2020 09:49 PM PDT

    I'm looking for suggestions on the best places to find data on all financial instruments (stocks, bonds, mutual funds, etc.) that is free or very very cheap. The biggest issue with popular free ones like yahoo finance is that it's doesn't have historic data. I'm really looking for 10 plus years of earnings, revenue, etc. Any suggestions?

    submitted by /u/tyuygun
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    Nokia misses Q3 earnings. Stock at -20%. Buy opportunity?

    Posted: 29 Oct 2020 09:17 AM PDT

    Nokia misses Q3 earnings. Stock is already at -20%, you think this is a good time to step in? Roadmap in terms of 5g looks promising in the next 3-5 years.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nokia-nok-q3-earnings-miss-134101384.html

    submitted by /u/kauabanga
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    Free API for stocks intraday prices and indexes

    Posted: 30 Oct 2020 02:50 AM PDT

    Hi there,

    I am trying to build a custom dashboards for myself to track trends and plot nice graphs with indexes and so on. Mostly for fun. I am trying to find some API to get stock intraday prices and indexes. Most of the solutions (API) I have found online offer only historical prices for free but not "live" intraday quotes. I would like to plot down to the minute more or less, I am using Python and will work with bokeh.

    Would you have any suggestions on what to use ?

    Thanks,

    submitted by /u/8rax
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    Boeing Borrowing $4.9 Billion on Heels of Cut to Cusp of Junk

    Posted: 29 Oct 2020 11:43 AM PDT

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-29/boeing-brings-bond-sale-on-heels-of-downgrade-to-cusp-of-junk

    Boeing Co. is selling new bonds to help repay nearly $3 billion of debt, announcing the sale just minutes after a downgrade to the company's credit rating.

    The planemaker is issuing $4.9 billion of unsecured notes in four parts, according to a person with knowledge of the matter. The debt sale was announced in a filing earlier Thursday, just minutes after Fitch Ratings put out a report cutting Boeing one notch to BBB-, the lowest investment-grade rating, with a negative outlook.

    The proceeds of the sale will help repay $2.8 billion of debt, which is either in the form of commercial paper or term bonds due next year. The longest portion of the offering, a 10-year security, will yield 280 basis points over Treasuries, after initially discussing around 300 basis points, said the person, who asked not to be identified as the details are private.

    Boeing abandoned a forecast that it would stop burning cash next year and said it would eliminate an additional 7,000 jobs, almost doubling its planned cuts, in reporting third-quarter earnings this week. The company has burned through about $22 billion in free cash since March 2019, when regulators grounded the company's best-selling jet after two fatal accidents.

    It'll likely be another two years until Boeing's financial metrics are more in line with that of a credit rating one level higher, Fitch said in the report. The company is also rated BBB- with a negative outlook at S&P Global Ratings, while Moody's Investors Service has it one step higher.

    BNP Paribas SA, Deutsche Bank AG, Mizuho Financial Group Inc., Royal Bank of Canada, SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. are among managers on the bond sale, per the filing.

    submitted by /u/FieryPanther
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    What do you guys think about buying franchises? Are they a good move?

    Posted: 29 Oct 2020 02:08 PM PDT

    I was looking at some of the numbers for these franchises. Apparently to franchise a dunkin donuts it costs anywhere between $110,000 - $1.6M. Does anyone know if these figures are what you have to pay upfront, or is that the total purchase price? What do you guys think are the best franchises to invest in? Thank you.

    submitted by /u/KnowledgeFirm
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    Twitter down 13%

    Posted: 29 Oct 2020 02:12 PM PDT

    Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) shares plunge 12.4% AH as Q3 results crush estimates on the top and bottom line but were outweighed by the downside monetizable users.

    Revenue was up 14% Y/Y to $936M, driven by the ad recovery. EPS was $0.19, topping consensus by $0.14.

    Advertising revenue increased 15% Y/Y to $808M (consensus: $646.4M). Data Licensing was up 5% to $128M (consensus: $127.4M).

    Total ad engagements were up 27% and cost per engagement decreased 9% .

    Monetizable DAU grew 29% to 187M (consensus: 194.9M) with 36M from the U.S. (consensus: 37.6M) and 137M from International (consensus: 158M).

    Costs and expenses increased 13% to $880M, leading to a 6% operating margin.

    Guidance: "Given improving business conditions, we also intend to continue investing in our most important work and expect total GAAP costs and expenses to grow closer to 20% year over year in Q4. Remember, that was our intention for the full year before the pandemic. We expect SBC expense to be relatively flat sequentially and we expect capex to remain over $250 million in Q4 as a result of our ongoing data center build-out."

    https://seekingalpha.com/news/3628635-twitter-plunges-user-weakness-offsets-strong-q3-beats

    submitted by /u/Omg_Keynes
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    Shopify rallies after crushing revenue, profit estimates

    Posted: 29 Oct 2020 05:47 AM PDT

    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/shopify-rallies-after-crushing-revenue-profit-estimates-1.1514761

    Shopify rallies after crushing revenue, profit estimates

    Shopify Inc. defied market expectations once again in the third quarter, posting stronger-than-expected results as the global pandemic continued to push shoppers out of bricks-and-mortar stores and onto online platforms.

    Revenue at Canada's largest company by stock market value nearly doubled to US$767.4 million while adjusted earnings were US$1.13 per share, more than twice analysts' estimates of 52 cents.

    "The accelerated shift to digital commerce triggered by COVID-19 is continuing, as more consumers shop online and entrepreneurs step up to meet demand," Shopify President Harley Finkelstein said in the earnings statement.

    Key Insights

    -Gross merchandise volume -- a measure of product sales flowing through its platform -- was US$30.9 billion, an increase of 109 per cent over the third quarter of last year, reflecting strong e-commerce spending by consumers.

    -The company continued to gain traction in new services it offers to customers. Shopify said 51 per cent of eligible merchants in the U.S. and Canada used Shopify Shipping in the third quarter of 2020, versus 45 per cent in the third quarter of 2019.

    -Its lending business is growing as well. Merchants in the U.S., Canada and the U.K. received $252.1 million in merchant cash advances and loans from Shopify Capital in the quarter, an increase of 79 per cent from the amount received by U.S. merchants in the same quarter last ye

    -The company expects its model to remain popular with buyers and sellers in the pandemic but cited macro risks in its decision not to provide fourth quarter or full-year guidance.

    "These include unemployment, fiscal stimulus, and the magnitude and duration of the COVID-19 pandemic, all of which may impact new shop creation on our platform and consumer spending": Shopify

    Shopify shares were up 2.9 per cent in pre-market trading at 7:52 a.m. in New York. The stock is up more than 680% in the past two years and had nearly tripled since the March low, as of Wednesday's close, as the pandemic accelerated the push by retailers and small businesses to move sales online.

    Founded in 2004, the Ottawa-based firm's core business is helping retailers get online quickly and cheaply. But it has expanded to offer an ever-widening suite of services, including lending, payments and shipping solutions. With a market capitalization of almost $125 billion, the company is now Canada's largest publicly traded company.

    submitted by /u/cannainform2
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    Bullish on Callaway (ELY)

    Posted: 29 Oct 2020 12:44 PM PDT

    Following the acquisition of Topgolf, Callaway shares tumbled 22% as many investors felt it overpaid for the sports entertainment company at ~42x 2019 EV/EBITDA. Following the completion of the deal, Callaway plans to issue 90mm shares to existing Topgolf holders which will bring the total shares outstanding to roughly 184mm.

    From a technical standpoint, the combined annualized EBITDA based on Q3 financials would be $416mm ($348mm Callaway, $68mm Topgolf). The new enterprise value will be around $3.9bn implying it currently trades around 9x its NTM EBITDA. Compare that with its top publicly traded competitor Acushnet (GOLF) trading at 18x. Not bad.

    From a fundamental standpoint, I think Callaway/Topgolf is going to struggle the remainder of the year due to Covid (they are currently operating at 85-90% capacity) however long term I see a great opportunity for growth. For those that have never been, Topgolf is fun as hell and although expensive, I personally believe it's going to continue attracting an audience that would never consider "golfing". There are many new projects and LOI's in the works and are expecting to do $3.2bn in revenue by 2022.

    To me, there's no other company like it now which can make it challenging to value, especially with uncertainty around the ongoing pandemic.

    My plan to enter a position sometime in Q4.

    What do you guys think?

    submitted by /u/jejakqmqm
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    Nokia shares immobile even though they score several 5G contracts?

    Posted: 29 Oct 2020 09:52 AM PDT

    Does anyone have input on what's currently going on with Nokia for the past year and a half?

    Repeatedly they keep scoring 5G development contracts in multiple countries but their shares are bumming along, not for the better but also not much for the worse?

    https://www.rcrwireless.com/20201026/5g/nokia-scores-5g-contract-with-finnish-shared-network

    submitted by /u/Mesapholis
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