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    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing

    October 15, 2020

    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing

    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.

    Posted: 14 Oct 2020 05:11 AM PDT

    If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions. If you are going to ask how to invest you should include relevant information, such as the following:

    • How old are you?
    • Are you employed/making income? How much?
    • What are your objectives with this money? (buy a house? Retirement savings?)
    • What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
    • What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors?)
    • Any other assets? House paid off? Cars? Expensive significant other?
    • What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
    • Any big debts?
    • Any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer.

    Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq

    Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    If you aren't making money, don't feel bad... look at how the top hedge funds are doing this year...

    Posted: 14 Oct 2020 11:11 AM PDT

    So you can see the top hedge funds here: HedgeFundTracker.com

    My checking account is doing better than some these "smart" hedge funds lol...

    Bridgewater, AQR, Man Group, even Renaissance.... All down so much.

    Also, these guys charge 2 and 20... Anyone have any thoughts on what is going with their performance this year? Why so bad?

    submitted by /u/MrLittleHands
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    Fastly (FSLY) drops almost 30% after hours on preliminary 3rd quarter results

    Posted: 14 Oct 2020 01:17 PM PDT

    https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201014005947/en/

    Fastly, Inc. (NYSE: FSLY), in fulfillment of its obligations to promptly file a resale registration statement on Form S-3 in connection with its successful acquisition of Signal Sciences on October 1, today announced preliminary revenue results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2020. On October 28, Fastly will release full third quarter 2020 financial results, along with fourth quarter and full-year 2020 guidance, which will include revenue from Signal Sciences.

    Fastly now expects third quarter 2020 total revenue of $70.0 to $71.0 million, compared to its previous guidance of $73.5 to $75.5 million. All previously issued third quarter and full-year guidance that Fastly disclosed in its second quarter shareholder letter and related call on August 5 should not be relied upon. These preliminary results and the withdrawal of the previously-issued third quarter and full-year guidance reflect the following customer-specific factors:

    • Due to the impacts of the uncertain geopolitical environment, usage of Fastly's platform by its previously disclosed largest customer did not meet expectations, resulting in a corresponding significant reduction in revenue from this customer.
    • During the latter part of the third quarter, a few customers had lower usage than Fastly had estimated.
    submitted by /u/pikindaguy
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    New Invesco QQQ Funds

    Posted: 14 Oct 2020 10:54 PM PDT

    https://www.invesco.com/us-etf/en/innovation-suite.html?gclid=CjwKCAjww5r8BRB6EiwArcckCx3fnDmN1GhVl3MBuE6fmmr247071ed3399TocVbA6COSmBFno9z_RoC0csQAvD_BwE

    QQQM - mirrors QQQ but with lower expense ratio

    QQQJ - mid cap emerging companies

    These look great and you can go to the link to read more and view their holdings.

    submitted by /u/stevebostonian
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    Virgin Galactic (ticker SPCE)will be in space for there test flight for FAA certification in MERE WEEKS!

    Posted: 14 Oct 2020 06:55 PM PDT

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/14/virgin-galactics-spaceflight-test-on-track-to-launch-this-fall.html

    Anyone following Virgin Galactic knows how important the upcoming test flight is scheduled for October 22nd (start of testing window).

    This test is a set of 2 that if successful will certify the company for a FAA licence to fly passengers. Following the success they will Fly founders and entrepreneur Richard Branson in Q1 2021 that will mark the commercialization of suborbital space for tourism!

    What is everyone's thoughts?

    submitted by /u/DoIAnnoyYouBadly
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    Advice on portfolio

    Posted: 15 Oct 2020 04:46 AM PDT

    I decided to go a bit wild and invest money without really knowing what I was doing. Now trying to figure out how much I may have screwed it up!

    Aim is to get some medium term value growth and create some passive income over the next few years.

    Still have emergency savings and pension is separate.

    Any thoughts, advice, criticisms welcome!

    Trading 212 account: Tate & lyle 13% Diageo 11% Britvic 8.5% Dominos 7% Homeserve 6% Bank of America 6% National grid 6% Pearson 6% Vanguard s&p 500 5.5% Fevertree 5% Pinterest 5% The renewable infrastructure group 5% Vanguard ftse 100 5% Apple 5% Burberry 5%

    Vanguard account: Global balanced fund 33% Life strategy 100% equity 33% Life strategy 60% equity 20% UK goverment bond 9%

    Thanks

    Edited for % held in each account

    submitted by /u/KetoClaire
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    What are the most important questions in macro investing at the moment? I can ask a hedgefund manager his thoughts.

    Posted: 14 Oct 2020 10:24 AM PDT

    I have this crazy opportunity to spend an hour a week learning from a hedgefund manager, for a few months. I got the opportunity through supporting his son who has a mental health condition.

    I've been learning from him for a few weeks, and he suggested I come to him with questions each week. So I'd like to pick his brain / ask him questions perhaps that all the best investors are trying to answer at the moment. Partly because I'd like to demonstrate some strong intellect and interest aside from the self study I do on markets. But also for my own and the communities knowledge. Happy to make another post on here to share answers.

    Thanks in advance for any help :)

    submitted by /u/bubblebubbler5797
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    DDoS Attacks to drive earning at NET and AKAM?

    Posted: 14 Oct 2020 06:29 PM PDT

    NET and AKAM dropping on the FSLY revenue news is crazy in my view and a buying opportunity. The huge spike of fake fancy bear DDoS extortion attacks is going to be a revenue and earnings driver for both companies. The levels of DDoS attacks happening around the world right now is simply unprecedented and driving companies to adopt DDoS mitigation services at rates never seen before. In the security industry we are calling this DDoS extortion campaign the 3rd pandemic along with COVID and Ransomware.

    The FBI is saying THOUSANDS of organizations have been hit since mid August. These companies are being driven into the arms of AKAM and NET to avoid extortion demands of 20-30 BTC. Depending on the provider and the customer characteristics, these contracts will have a $50-$200K one time emergency set up fee and monthly recurring charges between $5K-$50K based on the bandwidth the website or the network consumes. It's also worth mentioning that OFAC warned on October 1st that companies who pay ransoms to sanctioned entities may face civil liabilities making it SUPER risky for a company to pay an extortion demand.

    AKAM is the gold standard for critical firms like Financial Services and was engaged when NZX Stock Exchange was hit in August. Their prices are high, but top tier firms are willing to pay. AKAM should be able to take a significant amount of the high end of the market. They have maintained market share and grown despite new entrants to the CDN market. Their Kona platform is hugely capable at wrapping security and DDoS mitigation services around CDN. Their Prolexic Scrubbing Centers offer some of the industry's best network layer DDoS mitigation (Prolexic was best in class at this in 2014 when they were acquired by AKAM and only got better with scale).

    NET stands to massively benefit from this spike in DDoS attacks as well. Their "freemium" business model is designed for events like this. In a recent investor presentation they discuss how they invert the typical marketing approach and rely on customers to "pull" them into new services and markets. This is the type of storm them have been waiting for. Their CDN and "Spectrum" application layer DDoS mitigation services give AKAM a run for their money and their network/BGP layer "Magic Transit" services are innovative and disruptive. The current "fake fancy bear" attacks will likely drive significant Magic Transit revenue because these attacks are aimed at the network layer. The beautiful thing here is the cost of this revenue is almost nothing because of their demand/pull business model and the fact that Magic Transit capacity is only utilized during an active attack. In other words, NET can put massive numbers of customers on the Magic Transit platform and not consume additional resources. NET is also small enough that doubling or tripling security services revenue will have a big impact on the overall P&L.

    To put the scale of these attacks in perspective, I've talked to engineers at one of the largest and most respected domain registrars. In many cases if you want to enable DDoS mitigation services you must modify your domain registration record to point to a new set of DNS servers. This change is usually a quick phone call and takes 5-10 minutes. This domain registrar said they have been making DNS server changes for companies that needed DDoS mitigation services 24x7.... for 5 weeks straight!!! They said it's been unlike anything they have ever seen. While this is an indirect indicator, I believe it's a pretty good proxy of demand happening over at AKAM and NET and is the reason I went long on both recently.

    So... yeah. Buy the dip...

    submitted by /u/blueteambluz
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    Any blogs/websites on detailed analysis on healthcare companies. Going long or short (fundamental analysis, thesis, risks, drivers)

    Posted: 15 Oct 2020 05:01 AM PDT

    So as the title suggests is anyone aware of any websites or blogs which do an analysis on healthcare companies and why it should be a long or a short. Analysis here includes a fundamental analysis, value drivers, risks etc. Want to learn the thought process and a framework to be able to do this myself but was hoping for a starting point

    submitted by /u/kumarrba
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    Alibaba’s Ant Financial to be Added to Trade Blacklist

    Posted: 15 Oct 2020 05:00 AM PDT

    Trump administration is considering adding Alibaba's ($BABA) Ant Financial to the trade blacklist. According to two people familiar with the matter, prior to the financial technology firm is set to go public. The move comes as China hardliners in the Trump administration are seeking to send a message in order to deter U.S. investors from taking part in the IPO (initial public offering) for Ant Financial. The company is prepared for a dual listing in Shanghai and Hong Kong. The IPO could potentially Alibaba's ($BABA) Ant Financial to Potentially be Added to Trade Blacklistbe worth up to a record $35 billion.

    submitted by /u/kbgecko
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    Are binary options a type of investment and are they profitable?

    Posted: 15 Oct 2020 04:43 AM PDT

    I already invest in stocks and cryptocurrencies, but lately I have seen many advertisements on the internet of people who have made money from binary options, which according to them is a type of investment that consists of high earnings, but a lot of risk.

    I tried to search the subject on the internet but most of the results are bought by people who defend binary options, so I decided to ask here if you guys know this type of "investment", if it is profitable, if it is better than stocks and if it is worth it. Could anyone help answer these questions?

    submitted by /u/LucasSkudy
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    Tesla has been hovering around pre split price of $2100 the last while, was this sub totally wrong about this stock

    Posted: 14 Oct 2020 11:20 AM PDT

    Its currently around$2300 pre split fyi.

    or the last 3 months there were endless discussion and a analysis suggesting that the tesla bubble was going to pop anytime now. It appears that tesla is going to be permanently viewed as a ~400B company at minimum going forward.

    For bulls and bears, what are your thoughts on the stock.

    submitted by /u/can_wien07
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    Consumers’ Labor Market and Spending Expectations Improve

    Posted: 14 Oct 2020 06:53 PM PDT

    https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce

    NEW YORK—The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Center for Microeconomic Data released the September 2020 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows improvements in labor market and spending expectations, as well as less pessimistic views about households' expected financial situation. Home price growth expectations returned to their pre-COVID-19 levels, and debt delinquency expectations remained low. In contrast, year-ahead household income expectations remain weak compared to the pre-COVID-19 period. Median inflation expectations remained unchanged at the short-term horizon, while it declined at the medium-term horizon. Uncertainty and disagreement about future inflation remain elevated.

    The main findings from the September 2020 Survey are:

    Inflation

    • Median inflation expectations in September remained unchanged at 3.0% at the one-year horizon and decreased 0.3 percentage point returning to its July level of 2.7% at the three-year horizon. The decline was driven by respondents above the age of 40 and those with at least some college education. Our measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) remains substantially above its pre-COVID-19 levels at both horizons.

    • Median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—increased for the third consecutive month at the three-year horizon, while it retreated to its July 2020 level at the one-year horizon. Both series remain elevated relative to their pre-COVID-19 readings.

    • Median home price change expectations continued on its upward trend after reaching a series' low of 0% in April 2020, and increasing from 2.8% in August to 3.1% in September, just above its 2019 average of 3.0%. The increase was broad-based across demographic groups and was strongest for respondents who live in the South Census region.

    • The median one-year ahead expected change in the cost of a college education remained essentially unchanged, while median expectations for the price of gasoline and for food prices both declined by 0.8 and 0.3 percentage points to 4.8% and 5.1%, respectively. Median expectations for the cost of rent and medical care also decreased from 5.5% and 8.3% to 5.4% and 6.8% in September, respectively.

    Labor Market

    • Median one-year ahead expected earnings growth remained unchanged at 2.0% in September, for the second consecutive month. The series is below its 2019 average level of 2.4%.

    • Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—decreased from 39.1% in August, to 36.4% in September, below its 2019 average of 36.9%. The decline was driven by respondents below the age of 60.

    • The mean perceived probability of losing one's job in the next 12 months retreated from 18.0% in August to 16.6% in September, remaining well above its pre-COVID-19 reading of 13.8% in February. This month's decline was more pronounced among respondents above age 60 and those with a household income below $50,000. The mean probability of leaving one's job voluntarily in the next 12 months increased 0.6 percentage point to 20.3% in September. The increase was broad-based across demographic groups.

    • The mean perceived probability of finding a job (if one's current job was lost) declined from 50.7% in August to 49.9% in September. The series remains well below its 2019 average of 59.9%.

    Household Finance

    • Median expected household income growth increased by 0.1 percentage point to 2.3% in September, remaining well below its 2019 average of 2.8%. The increase was driven mostly by respondents below the age of 40 and those with at least some college education.

    • Median household spending growth expectations increased from 3.0% in August to 3.4% in September, its highest reading since May 2019.

    • Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago and expectations for year-ahead credit availability both improved somewhat in September, with fewer respondents reporting or expecting difficulties in obtaining credit.

    • The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increased from 9.7% in August to 10.7% in September. This reading remains below its 2019 average of 11.5%.

    • The median expectation regarding a year-ahead change in taxes (at current income level) rebounded from 2.7% in August to 3.0% in September.

    • The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher 12 months from now slightly declined to 27.6% in September, from 28.0% in August.

    • Perceptions about households' current financial situations compared to a year ago deteriorated slightly, with slightly more respondents reporting being worse off. In contrast, one-year ahead expectations about households' financial situations improved with more respondents expecting their financial situation to improve and fewer respondents expecting their financial situation to worsen.

    • The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now decreased 0.8 percentage points to 44.1% in September.

    About the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE)

    The SCE contains information about how consumers expect overall inflation and prices for food, gas, housing, and education to behave. It also provides insight into Americans' views about job prospects and earnings growth and their expectations about future spending and access to credit. The SCE also provides measures of uncertainty regarding consumers' outlooks. Expectations are also available by age, geography, income, education, and numeracy.

    The SCE is a nationally representative, internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to 12 months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month. Unlike comparable surveys based on repeated cross-sections with a different set of respondents in each wave, our panel allows us to observe the changes in expectations and behavior of the same individuals over time.

    submitted by /u/MasterCookSwag
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    Buying a long futures contract and unlevering using a put option/short futures contract

    Posted: 14 Oct 2020 08:07 PM PDT

    Hi everyone, I'm learning about futures contracts. I was wondering (because I don't have too much capital and don't want to lever up 20x) if I could purchase a futures contract (MGC) and then unlever it by purchasing a put option or short futures contract to offset the inherent leverage. Also how would the math on such a strategy work?

    submitted by /u/jayc0924
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    What the least volatile market sectors able to best ride out a crash?

    Posted: 15 Oct 2020 01:53 AM PDT

    Are there certain industries that are less likely to crash as hard if/ when a market pull back happens?

    I'd assume some would be industries like consumer staples health care?

    What about financial industries? Would they be ok?

    Would tech companies be able to survive too since a lot of their value is in their software which has little overhead costs to maintain?

    Are there any you'd strongly advise against investing in if there is a crash?

    Thank you in advance 🙏🏼

    submitted by /u/Lovedubai37
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    Is Astrazeneca a safe bet

    Posted: 15 Oct 2020 01:48 AM PDT

    As you all know the race for covid vaccines is on between a lot of pharma companies. As of the ones now in the final stage imo astrazeneca seems to have the best chances of really developing a cure & being able to produce enough of it.

    As of now their stock is about 10% above their february high, which doesn't seem like a lot. For example moderna is at about 4x their valuation in february although they in my opinion don't have a chance on rolling out a succesful vaccine.

    Besides that astrazeneca just received a half billion from the US to develop the vaccine.

    Are there any reasons not to buy this? I know there is some risk that their test won't be succesful but in that case they would propably go down to their february valuation. On the other side if it works out and they are the first ones to supply the vaccine they will surely make loads of money from that.

    Let me know your opinions 🙂

    submitted by /u/king_yumanji
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    $100m UK cannabis investment fund launches this week with a football team-size of advisors including Canopy founder Bruce Linton and one-time GW Pharma R&D lead Colin Stott

    Posted: 15 Oct 2020 01:24 AM PDT

    ONE of the UK's first cannabis investment funds is being backed by two of the industry's global leaders as it closes in on its first $75m investment.

    https://businesscann.com/new-uk-cannabis-fund-closes-in-on-its-first-75m-investment/

    submitted by /u/wwwBusinessCann
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    Best Cannabis play ETF?

    Posted: 14 Oct 2020 01:11 PM PDT

    I'm interested in potentially dipping my toes into the cannabis industry. I don't know enough about specific companies per se, so I'm looking to start off with an ETF.

    The three I've focused my research on so far all seem to have very different philosophies:

    POTX - Seems to focus on equity positions in most of the name brand cannabis producers and companies (APHA, ACB, CGC, CRON,TLRY, etc.)

    YOLO - Top holdings include marijuana farmers and land owners like IIPR and VFF and pharmaceutical marijuana companies like GWPH and ARNA. They also appear to have a lot of swaps in their portfolio for companies like GTBIF, CURLF and TCNNF.

    TOKE - This one has a lot of non-cannabis companies (liquor, tobacco) that are expanding into marijuana/CBD products like STZ, PM, MO and BTI, as well as some varied pure cannabis plays like APHA, CGC, GWPH and related support companies like SMG.

    What do you think of these ETFs? Are there other cannabis ETFs that you like and why? Do you like the cannabis space or is it way too overbought?

    Any thoughts welcomed. Thanks!

    submitted by /u/KevSC721
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    Question about short selling / short interest!

    Posted: 15 Oct 2020 12:47 AM PDT

    I am trying to learn how to apply some fundamentals and am confused on the short interest buying scenarios. I hope this makes sense...

    ​

    What are BULLISH indicators for me to BUY stock in regards to short interest / short float / short ratio?

    ​

    --- My understanding is that RISING short interest indicates a potential DROP in stock price, however I am seeing resources say that it is better to buy when the short interest is high (>20%). So, is profit from buying with high short interest dependent on a catalyst causing short sellers to cover their stock? Or should I look for things with LOW short interest because that means the price is expected to rise? Gosh I am lost lol

    ​

    Note: I am using $STAF to understand all of this. It looks like their short float is 1.95% with a ratio of 0.63. Is this a good entry point or bad in terms of those parameters?

    ​

    THANKS IN ADVANCE!

    submitted by /u/hmmmokay9
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    Question on How to Use Market Volume Properly as an Indicator

    Posted: 14 Oct 2020 04:47 PM PDT

    I'm not understanding the aspect of low market volume being used as an indicator. In an investing book I'm reading it says "If market volume is low and market goes UP, that's a negative indicator regarding investor sentiment. If the market volume is low and the market goes DOWN, that's a positive indicator regarding investor sentiment." Can I get some help understanding this statement?

    submitted by /u/CTLifeTravelerAI
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    What's up with JD.com ?

    Posted: 15 Oct 2020 12:02 AM PDT

    https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/JD/jd/income-statement

    Was looking at JD's income statement and looks like they have finally started turning a net profit, starting 2019

    Revenues and operating expenses have both been growing every year and until 2019, expenses have always been greater. In 2019, looks like revenues beat out expenses by a narrow margin (a billion!). Any thoughts if this will continue ? And the one off $2 billion R&D expense in 2019 ?

    ​

    https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/BABA/alibaba/income-statement

    Comparing with Alibaba which has seen a steady increase in EPS for the past 10 years and has also always been positive. Though wondering about the one off $8 billion non operating income in 2016. Any thoughts ?

    ​

    submitted by /u/vrege
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    Question about closing or exercising calls

    Posted: 14 Oct 2020 11:29 PM PDT

    Let's say stock xyz:

    current stock price: $25

    option: $15 Call exp 10/23 price paid for contract: $320 ($3.20 premium) current contract price: $920 ($9.20 premium)

    So if I wanted to own 100 shares of this stock, I would exercise the contract, but what I don't understand is what happens to the $9.20 premium? would it just disappear? or would it be subtracted from the $1500 that was paid? And if that were the case, could I potentially wait until the premium is $15.00 and get the 100 shares for $0 essentially? So sorry if the last question is kinda stupid, I have never encountered the situation of actually buying the shares from the contract, I usually just sell the call option I bought for premium profit. Thanks in advance

    edit: when I said $0 essentially, I did not include the original $320 spent on the contract. Or would that be subtracted from the $920?

    submitted by /u/eagle325
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    UK share dealing account for non UK resident

    Posted: 14 Oct 2020 11:05 PM PDT

    I currently have an account with HSBC, I left the UK three years ago and at the time they told me it was ok to keep the account and I had no problem with it until now.
    A few days ago I've been informed though that I'm not allowed to keep the account anymore, it's been frozen with only selling option available.
    I would like to transfer the shares to a new account if possible, does anyone know of a broker that would allow me to open an account from abroad?

    submitted by /u/yeeeeeeegg
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