Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing |
- Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.
- Short sellers are GOOD for the Market
- The cloud market is projected to grow to 2 trillion in 2030 with a CAGR of 18%. Does this mean Cloud ETFs should perform similarly?
- $AMZN - media business now estimated to be worth nearly $600bn with launch of Luna
- Should I ditch the idea of retirement accounts?
- Interactive Brokers bugged / hacked / server issues ?
- VTI for IRA and/or Roth IRA okay?
- Anyone else seriously considering jumping on the Ant Group/Alipay IPO train? Anything that might make me reconsider?
- The Stock Market Is Less Disconnected From the “Real Economy” Than You Think
- So, in my own head, I’ve complained to myself about the ratio of decent discussions to be on here and other subs.
- SPY vs S&P 500
- Programmatic advertising Primers - anything out there?
- Beginner question on margin.
- In Europe and Japan stocks stagnated for a long time when interest rates stayed near 0. Will the same happen in US?
- Can you set up logic within an investment account?
- [Survey] Motivations for micro-investing
- Did Unity’s stock peak today?
- Quarterly Tax
- "Invest in what you know" is bad advice and wrong.
- Please find holes in my theory
- Fantasy Investing
- Bought using unsettled cash on thinkorswim
- Which company is the “Next Big Thing?”
- DXY Rallying Along with Equities?
| Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Posted: 25 Sep 2020 05:12 AM PDT If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions. If you are going to ask how to invest you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  |
| Short sellers are GOOD for the Market Posted: 25 Sep 2020 06:00 PM PDT Shortsellers are going after our favorite stocks to profit therefore we should despise them right? But are they all really bad? Don't just read articles and blog posts that confirm your view about a company. Right now a lot of $TSLA & $NKLA shareholders are mad about shortsellers going after their stock but in fact you should embrace it. Shortsellers do research that you could never do on your own. In fact I would love it if someone would give me a 50 page report on everything thats wrong with any of my holdings. I know whats right about all the companies I own. What I want to know are the flaws, the accounting issues ( if there are any ) etc. With Luckin Coffee Muddy Waters Research bought thousands of cups of coffee from different branches and kept an eye on the customers. Thats invaluable research and in the end they were right that the numbers don't match up. They probably saved a lot of Luckin Coffee Shareholders from bigger losses ( those who read the report). And of course short sellers should get compensated for this work. There have to be incentives to do this kind of work. Else nobody would do it. Don't count on auditors which are incentivized to look the other way and keep a paying client.When you're an analyst you can just say you think revenue will go up but you don't need to back it up. Thats it. But when you accuse someone of fraud then you better have a lot of evidence to support this view. Short sellers face potential losses & lawsuit. If they are wrong they lose a lot. Thats why they work hard and only release reports when they have enough to back up their claim. Also what do Companies like Nikola have to worry about ? If everything is fine then the Hindenburg report will turn out false and they continue to enjoy a rising share price. But what if the report is right? If you are a Nikola shareholder then you should pay attention to it. Read it and work this into your thesis for owning the stock. Is it worth the risk? Maybe limit your exposure.But don't ridicule the people that release those reports. There is a lot of hard work & money behind it. Short sellers don't do this for the fun of it. And if they are right they should be compensated for their work. I would actually say that many short sellers work much harder on research than a long analyst. After all they have to be right to make money. If they're wrong they won't be able to enjoy market returns. They would literally get wiped out. source: https://welovevalue.com/short-sellers-are-good-for-the-market/ [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 25 Sep 2020 07:23 PM PDT Topic. Basically I've looked at some ETFs like SKYY, and it has had a return rate of 20% since inception in 2011. I am curious do ETFs usually follow the same return rate as the sector its tracking? So for example the total cloud market is currently at 300 bn, and is projected to grow to 2 trillion with a average growth rate of ~18% per year. Would that mean that cloud ETFs like SKYY should also give similar return rate of around ~18%? [link] [comments]  |
| $AMZN - media business now estimated to be worth nearly $600bn with launch of Luna Posted: 25 Sep 2020 07:31 AM PDT Needham: "Yesterday, at AMZN's devices and services event, AMZN announced Luna+, a $6/month (intro price) cloud gaming subscription competitor to Google's Stadia ($10/month), Microsoft xCloud($15/month), and EA's Origin Access ($15/month). Although AMZN's content is inferior to competitors today, we expect its Customer Acquisition Costs (CAC) to be below competitors, thanks to its Twitch and AWS integrations." "We believe additional value from Luna+ comes from: a) building brand trust with the next generation (16-26 year olds); b) upside from sub revs, which are valued at 9x Rev vs AMZN's avg of 4x; and, c) a new rev stream using AWS & Twitch that raises AMZN's barriers to entry." "We calculate that AMZN's media revenue streams are worth nearly $600B, or about 40% of AMZN's total EV, suggesting these businesses are the most undervalued piece of AMZN." "Advertising's Hidden Value. The "hidden" value of AMZN's advertising's expected 50% y/y growth in FY21E is important because many public companies with comparable ad rev growth rates trade above 7x and up to 22x revs. We use an average of 14.5x EV/Rev." "Subscription Revs Hidden Value. Similarly, subscription revenue streams typically trade at much higher EV/Rev multiples than AMZN's core business, so anything that adds revenue in subscription silos grows AMZN's value faster, we believe. Consumer-facing subscription revenue is generally predictable, sticky, has upside optionality to add more rev/month over time, and has high switching costs and barriers to entry. As a consequence, many subscription business models trade at 7x-12x EV/Rev, well above AMZN's avg." "Luna. By implication, successful growth of subscriber revenue streams suggests faster upside valuation revisions for AMZN. A gating factor to this potential upside value driver is introducing new subscription services, like Luna." "Twitch and AWS Integrations Lower AMZN's Risks. AMZN's economic risks of Luna failing is lower than its competitors because it already owns the cloud servers required through AWS, and it also owns the dominant video game viewing platform in Twitch, which it is integrating into Luna. Both AWS and Twitch should lower Luna's CAC. Therefore, even if Luna fails, it should cost far less than other companies that don't already own cloud servers and a huge number of video gamers already spending hours per day on a sister-platform." [link] [comments]  |
| Should I ditch the idea of retirement accounts? Posted: 26 Sep 2020 03:34 AM PDT I'm in a rather unique situation. First, I plan to be financially independent before the age of 50. Second, I want to use my time building rental houses mostly with my own labor instead of working at a job I don't like in order to pay contractors to do the entire job. In this scenario, should I ignore IRAs and ROTH IRAs and instead invest each pay period's savings in the stock market without a retirement vehicle in order to save up as much as possible as quickly as possible for the house? Just a couple pother considerations: 1. I'm anti-debt. I don't sleep well owing someone something so this is out of the question. I'll retire just fine without leverage. 2. I want all my rental property in one place and built to last which is why I'm not looking to buy scattered houses all over the county. 3. Using my time to build my retirement rental house portfolio sounds like something that would work well. The government can't tax time invested. Only money. So by building a house in a year my income is low (tax savings) even though my net worth goes up significantly. Plus I enjoy building instead of clocking in at my job. Thoughts? [link] [comments]  |
| Interactive Brokers bugged / hacked / server issues ? Posted: 25 Sep 2020 09:09 PM PDT I happened to log into my Interactive Brokers account on a Saturday morning, went to "Portfolio", and found that I suddenly have no open positions. The entire page is blank. I'm supposed to have ~USD50k invested in various stocks. [link] [comments]  |
| VTI for IRA and/or Roth IRA okay? Posted: 25 Sep 2020 09:33 PM PDT Just as the subject says. Is this an okay equity investment strategy? I understand needing to have bonds or safer investments as a portion of your investments. I'm strictly referring to the equity part of the portfolio. Is VTI a reasonable/easy choice that financially makes sense? Yes I've googled this and I can't get the answers/feedback I was hoping for. Thank you all for your time and feedback! [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 26 Sep 2020 01:06 AM PDT Just bought a few more shares of BABA to capitalise on the hype. I have set up an account with an international broker and am thinking of buying Ant Group day one. My strategy would be to sell some shares in the short term to cash in on the first day pop, and hold some for the long term. To me all the signs are pointing up. I am only worried that with all the news and anticipation surrounding this IPO, it may be over-hyped and drop after making only mediocre gains on the first day, which would then be a better entry point. I am a relatively amateur investor when it comes to stocks, so anything that may give me pause or may make me reconsider this would be very much appreciated. It just feels almost like too good an opportunity to be true. [link] [comments]  |
| The Stock Market Is Less Disconnected From the “Real Economy” Than You Think Posted: 25 Sep 2020 05:17 AM PDT https://nathantankus.substack.com/p/the-stock-market-is-less-disconnected If you're not following Nathan Tankus by now, you're missing out on key, relevant economic commentary.
This wasn't a surprise for me.
This was a surprise, and the graphs on the link explain it succinctly.
[link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 25 Sep 2020 06:44 PM PDT I read on here a sub about short sellers, which included why people shouldn't be all upset with them. To summarize a long process of thoughts, I decided to try to post something on here to begin to contribute. Hate on me if u want, I'm not exactly expecting a terricific reception in this sub on my thought: Day trading with a twist: I like some stock, etfs, and indices, yet I seriously distrust overnight and over-month movements. Too much can change in 24 hours. Also, for me, day trading after years of experience is where I make my best AND most consistent profit believe it or not, especially since feb/March of 2020 Why I think this pertains to this particular sub: I aim to day trade things I think are also valuable mid term (0.5-5years) and I don't believe I have enough knowledge to predict or truly project the future past 1-2 years on a globalized economy basis. So I invest, in equities I foresee as a valuable investment, but I take my profit (or loss) before the day ends because worldwide unknowns. I magnify my gains with options. What's r/investing think? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 26 Sep 2020 04:14 AM PDT Fellow investors can you help me out? What is the difference between spy and S&P 500 As I understand it they are two identical things with the only difference being, that SPY reinvests your money and is cheaper ( more useful) for smaller investors. Is that true? I would like to hear your opinions or facts rather. [link] [comments]  |
| Programmatic advertising Primers - anything out there? Posted: 26 Sep 2020 03:29 AM PDT Looking at BIDS, ANZU (not public but same tech) those types of firms. Can't see any recent research on this area though. Thinking more of gaming industry, smart ads being put into games in a more sophisticated way. Seeing the demise of lootboxes due to gambling regulations. (especially in Asia and EU) and programmatic ads becoming a replacement. Anything anywhere? Anyone know where to look? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 26 Sep 2020 03:27 AM PDT My question is simple. Let's say I purchase a stock on margin because I see an opportunity and I know I will be able to fund my account in the upcoming days. At the time of funding y account, does the margin disappear or I would have to sell that specific security and re purchase it with cash to close the margin loan? How does it really work? Appreciate your responses! [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 25 Sep 2020 04:05 AM PDT I do understand that there are other factors, like populating getting older and some other then interest rates policy decisions, but it seems like interest rates is a main factor. Look at the graphs of STOXX Europe 600 and Nikkei 225. I marked periods when interest rates were constantly falling and when they stay near 0. The pattern is clear, long period on near 0 interest rates and stagnation of stock prices happened at the same time in 2 different economies already. What do you think? Is US going to repeat the same pattern? [link] [comments]  |
| Can you set up logic within an investment account? Posted: 25 Sep 2020 03:23 PM PDT Let's say I have $10,000 of stock ABC currently trading at $100/share. And let's say I'm currently eyeing stock XYC trading at $200/share but I currently don't own any shares of it Now if XYZ drops below $190/share and ABC is still trading at >$95/share, I want to move ~$2,000 from stock ABC to stock XYZ. Of course I can manually track both stocks and manually buy/sell accordingly. But is there a way to automate this? I currently use Etrade as my broker, but willing to look at other brokers if they offer this functionality. [link] [comments]  |
| [Survey] Motivations for micro-investing Posted: 25 Sep 2020 11:38 PM PDT Hey guys, I'm doing this as part of a research paper regarding some differences in micro-investing vs conventional investing. The questions are addressed to micro-investors. I'm aware Reddit seems like an odd place to do scientific research, so I hope this is the right place to post :D If you don't mind, please also briefly explain the reason. The 'why' is the most important thing. 1) Do you use micro-investing platforms to get started in the investing world, to maintain a healthy money habit or to gain an extra source of income? If more than one purpose is in your answer, which one motivates you to invest the most? 2) If you acquire sufficient fund and financial literacy to invest conventionally, will you still maintain your micro-investing account? Which "micro-investing" am I talking about? - Platforms that allow you to buy fractional shares of stocks, ETFs, mutual funds, etc. with no or minimal commission rates/transaction fees. - Very low to none minimum investment required to start. - Featuring robo-advisory, in other word, recommending you a portfolio (or several) following a questionnaire. May also automatically allocate your capital. - (Optional) Round up your spare change to put into your account. Example: Acorns (US), Stash (US), Moneybox (UK) As a 'micro-investor', you're not planning to put a huge amount of capital into your account. This is based on your intention and what "huge" means to you, the exact amount is irrelevant for now. --------- If something is unclear, I'll elaborate. Thank you for contributing, really means a lot to my team. Good luck on your investment :) [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 25 Sep 2020 02:18 PM PDT After more or less powering through bloody Wednesday, it seems like Unity is doing well, but curious if the initial hype has died down or if there is still a lot of room for their stock to grow within the next year? Their profit margins seem to tell a different story than what I've heard early investors say(it could be the next trillion dollar idea), so I'm just curious if someone that's more closely connected to the field than me could help me understand if further investing would be a good thing or if Unity will probably stagnate as a competitor in the gaming engine market? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 25 Sep 2020 10:58 PM PDT Hello, I have made all of my income on options and stock gains this year, starting in February. It has been revealed to me that I need to pay quarterly estimates, how do I go about doing this and what will the penalty look like and can it be waived if this is my first experience with taxes? Anybody else with a similar experience? Thanks [link] [comments]  |
| "Invest in what you know" is bad advice and wrong. Posted: 26 Sep 2020 04:02 AM PDT The famous quote from Peter Lynch said to invest in what you know but that's just bad advice.
How many people really know about Intel, AMD, Nivida, ASML or TSMC beyond a surface level? If you invested in what you know, I wouldn't be investing in Apple or Facebook since I don't use their products or services or understand their appeal. I don't buy things from Amazon or subscribe to their services as well. I have never bought a product recommended to me by advertisements or watched YouTube without adblock off. The only thing I would be investing in would be consumer staples.
― Socrates, Essential Thinkers [link] [comments]  |
| Please find holes in my theory Posted: 25 Sep 2020 05:45 PM PDT Okay so what's wrong with this investment plan:
K so best case scenario is the underlying security goes up, let's say a realistic 10%. You leveraged 300k of the underlying security translating to a profit of 30k. Pay off your 20k loan, maybe 5k interest, you're left with 60k - 25k = $35k Looks like 350% profit. Worst case scenario is the underlying security plummets 2009 style and it goes down like 30%. Cause of your leverage you owe $90k. The Corp is 90k in debt and unable to pay, declares bankruptcy and dissolves. You lose $10k You, the shareholder, are not liable for the debts of the Corp. You've covered your ass by not signing any personal guarantees, not using any personal assets as collateral, etc. Seems like a potential huge return (and more likely) against a not so big loss (and unlikely) Is this legal? Is this fraud? Is this what corporations are there for? Do people do this? Edit Forget the loan part, just the $10k put up by an individual. Still huge potential returns without the risk, isn't it? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 25 Sep 2020 03:25 PM PDT Hey! I'm looking to play fantasy investing with my friends. I would like to set up a league with rules, timeline etc. and was wondering if anyone know if something like this already exists or if it could be created easily? A few criteria we'd like to have: All players have a set amount (e.g $10,000) to invest Buy / Sell trades are time stamped at the stock tickers price (e.g I "bought" $1000 of AMZN on 9/25 at 10:38 am; AMZN is at $3100 (essentially keeping a cost basis) Current value of portfolio Don't know how complex it'd be to add in options Some auditing / integrity check (I suppose Google sheets could do this?) Thanks for the advice, and not trying to reinvent the wheel but a few buddies of mine thing this would be a lot of fun so seeing what's out there already. [link] [comments]  |
| Bought using unsettled cash on thinkorswim Posted: 25 Sep 2020 01:09 PM PDT I'm kind of worried because I just bought an ETF using cash that didn't settle yet. It let me buy it and I don't plan to sell any time soon. Will I still get in trouble? Is there anyway out of it because I didn't know it had to settle first. Thanks for any advice! [link] [comments]  |
| Which company is the “Next Big Thing?” Posted: 25 Sep 2020 11:21 AM PDT Market cap around $5B-50B currently, could be worth $1T by 2030. My vote would have gone to $SQ but no longer under $50B. $PLTR will be interesting to watch next week. EVs/clean tech doesn't count as current multiples are already anticipating sky-high growth. Made mistake of posting similar thread to wsb. Some enthusiasm for $NVTA, "$SPY" (maybe meant $CRWD), and $BIGC. Skeptical of $BIGC as $SPOT much more heavily entrenched AND growing faster. $NVTA is interesting and don't write it off. But some problems I see (1) ask any clinician and you'll learn genomic medicine hasn't lived up to hype, yes we know SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms), linkage etc but everything "polyfactoral," even "epigenetic" and known risk factors (diet, exercise, family history, SES, etc) tend to be much more helpful; (2) insofar as genomics can be monetized would see a as to yet unknown startup with flashier marketing and better tech interface taking spoils; (3) don't really see enough brand loyalty (compared with cult like followings of $AAPL $TSLA even $LULU) to any genomics company but particularly not to $NVTA which has marketed itself mostly to clinicians—will be important in a crowded space with several viable competitors. So only one real candidate worth discussing so far. Any other ideas? EDIT: Based on feedback current market cap can be $5B-100B. Also in event of acquisition, there would still have to be a strong case that company is a "megacap" if valued separately. [link] [comments]  |
| DXY Rallying Along with Equities? Posted: 25 Sep 2020 08:34 AM PDT Recently, these two have moved in opposite directions. A spike in the dollar typically represents risk aversion. Metals and crypto naturally moving opposite to the dollar. However, equities are also rallying hard even as the dollar is rallying harder. Anyone know why the massive disconnect today? [link] [comments]  |
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