Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing |
- Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.
- NKLA finishes the day down 26%, down 73% from its peak in June
- $TSLA - summary of analyst thoughts following Battery Day
- Banks tightening lending is deflation
- NKLA Founder Deletes Twitter Account
- 'Active' fund managers beaten by benchmarks during COVID volatility
- Intel received permission to supply Huawei
- Which green energy companies do you have the biggest positions in, and why?
- Investing in Random Stocks: My Random "Portfolio" Nearly Doubled Today Because of SPI
- Ark's long term Tesla forecast is going up..
- Psychedelic medical stocks are way up this past week (50-100%)
- Thoughts on a possible second bailout for the US airline sector?
- Laird Superfood ($LSF) IPO up 85% first day - why does a coffee creamer company need access to the capital markets?
- Election “proofing”
- Halp & Thoughts on a Medical Refrigeration Vaccine Play
- Investing in US market from Europe
- How do you value proprietary software?
- Need some perspective
- Can investing in the stock market disrupt your life?
- Why is FLEX trading at such a low market cap? Shouldn’t it be valued higher?
- VIX going into November
- Is buying bonds now betting that bonds go negative?
- Investing with Revolut
- Scanning for volume increases
| Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Posted: 23 Sep 2020 05:12 AM PDT If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions. If you are going to ask how to invest you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  |
| NKLA finishes the day down 26%, down 73% from its peak in June Posted: 23 Sep 2020 01:01 PM PDT No new news about it that I can find and it's been a steady drop since this morning. It's down to its May levels which was shortly after it became public via SPAC. The drop itself shouldn't be surprising at all, it's that it took so long after all the allegations came out, its founder leaving the company immediately, and the fact that it has nothing to show for itself. [link] [comments]  |
| $TSLA - summary of analyst thoughts following Battery Day Posted: 23 Sep 2020 07:17 AM PDT BULLS: Oppenheimer: "Doing More With Less. TSLA outlined a robust reimagining of battery design, manufacturing, and performance including targeting a $25K vehicle in three years and 20x capacity increase by 2030. It is ramping a pilot line featuring a comprehensive redesign of product architecture, basic materials, and process technology and expects to yield ~56% cost declines, 54% range improvement, and 69% capex reduction, with initial benefits seen over 12–18 months, achieviing run-rate at ~three years. TSLA reiterated 30–40% delivery growth in 2020 (implied 478–515K) ahead of consensus estimates. We are impressed with the ambition of the endeavor and believe this roadmap charts ongoing technology and cost leadership for TSLA enabling sales into the entire LDV market. While limited details may weigh on shares, we would be buyers on any near-tearm weakness." ON THE FENCE: Morgan Stanley: "A Call to Arms. Tesla's battery day largely lived up to the hype, but didn't clearly exceed it. We think the main narrative is that Tesla's battery tech is outpacing current growth in supply… and it's time to spend significantly." Credit Suisse: "Battery Day plan shows elevated growth narrative ahead, but consider challenges in manufacturing ramp. Tesla's much anticipated Battery Day brought several key positives: 1. Battery plans to support aggressive growth over next decade; 2. Growth unlocked via cost reductions on multiple fronts, highlighted by ambitious vertical integration plans; 3. Yet another reminder Tesla is well ahead of other automakers in the push to EV. However, the biggest driver of Tesla's success in its strategy will be its ability to successfully ramp manufacturing, and we expect challenges along the way. Amid lofty expectations into the event, we see a 'sell the news' reaction on the stock given Tesla is still 3 years away from its planned $25,000 vehicle and full benefits from its battery strategy. That said, we ultimately expect weakness to be bought as the event highlighted Tesla's robust growth narrative." Canaccord Genuity: "Battery Day hits on manufacturing strategies, but may disappoint for those that see a tech juggernaut. As expected, Tesla's Battery Day and shareholder meeting provided a trove of clues as to the direction of the company. For Bulls, the operational and systems approach to reduce manufacturing costs for autos and energy might be enough to warrant momentum. Bears, however, are likely to point the shift towards what looks increasingly like a modern day auto OEM than a tech company." Goldman: "Capacity, Battery Tech and Cost in focus. Tesla believes that it will see the initial impact of these changes within 12-18 months, and the full impact in about 3 years. In addition, Tesla stated that it could release a $25,000 car in about 3 years as a result of the reduction in pack cost. We believe that a vehicle at this price point (coupled with Tesla's other products) would help Tesla to address a wide range of the light vehicle market (and furthermore EVs offer savings for the typical US driver in the form of lower maintenance and fuel costs that we have previously estimated are about $800 per year vs. an ICE vehicle). We expect the ability and timing for Tesla to fully achieve these targets to be one investor debate post the event, as Tesla has not always met its past targets. While we are incrementally positive on long-term EV adoption, we believe that the company's premium multiple (Exhibit 4 and Exhibit 5) currently reflects this." BEARS: **Barclays: "**while it had the usual set of aggressive forward-looking targets, the key question of the stock is whether a more subdued Musk – who uncharacteristically cautioned that the battery innovations were 'close to working' – is enough to sustain the valuation. We can see a few days of 'sell the news,' especially as Musk did not forecast either the 1 million mile battery (which many Tesla fans expected) or using Tesla cars for vehicle to gird (which we expected), and the 'one more thing' was delayed Model S Plaid performance variant. Moreover, the Plaid variant was delayed. After that, however, attention will shift to delivery forecasts for 3Q20, where Musk was silent other than forecasting 30-40% unit growth for 2020." Needham: "Will Vertical Integration Make or Break Tesla? We Have 3 Years to Find Out. At its well-hyped Battery Day yesterday, TSLA announced its transformational plans to more than halve the cost per $/KWH of its batteries through the strategy of vertical integration. The ultimate goal is to increase range by 54%, while cutting cost/KWh by 56% and investment per GWh by 69% in five steps: cell design, cell factory, anode materials, cathode materials and cell vehicle integration (outlined below). This plan will take three years to be fully implemented. While we applaud the company's ambitious plans, we believe it is an inherently risky move with steep execution and operational challenges." [link] [comments]  |
| Banks tightening lending is deflation Posted: 24 Sep 2020 12:39 AM PDT Banks tightening lending is deflation. Fed can give all the bonds to bank it wants but the banks choose when to take risk and give loans (inflation). Chase just tightened lending on real estate to 20% down and 700 fico for any loan. All banks also imposed a "forbearance" fee aka we don't want your real estate bags when the market tanks fee. Trump even stepped in and delayed it. Bank reserves in cash are at 2011 levels. The banks have seen this play before and are getting ready, that is my thesis. Obviously every market is different and there are 100s only markets in the us. Some will be hit less than others but all will be hit to some extent. [link] [comments]  |
| NKLA Founder Deletes Twitter Account Posted: 24 Sep 2020 02:26 AM PDT The now famous dumpster fire of NKLA gets a bit more spicy as it shoots out the butthole of the market. The founder and chairman that has been forced out of the company, first went silent on twitter which he use to love to hype, then set it to private, and today has deleted it Lol The melt down at the NKLA sub has been wild for the last week with them banning literally everyone hah I wonder if the company and execs that are not family and friends will try to avoid jail themselves by trying to force out Trevors brother and other friends that have no business being in their roles and try with what remaining market capital they have to do some actual R&D and study to avoid potentially getting caught up in this whirlwind and getting in shit themselves. My honest next guess is that we see NKLA force out the brother that poured concrete and now somehow is running the Hydrogen Development Team over there Lol What are your next guesses on the timeline before the obvious delisting and criminal proceedings? [link] [comments]  |
| 'Active' fund managers beaten by benchmarks during COVID volatility Posted: 23 Sep 2020 07:35 AM PDT Note: The article did not mention what portion of the underperformance over the last 15 years was due to fees charged by the funds to their clients. [link] [comments]  |
| Intel received permission to supply Huawei Posted: 23 Sep 2020 08:27 PM PDT The US-China trade tension doesn't seem to go away anytime soon. With recent Trump's executive order prohibiting US companies from suppling Huawei, Huawei is certainly in dire need of US IC chips. So the permission to continue suppling Huawei will be a huge win for Intel's bottom line. With the uncertainty of US election and future US trade policy, I can see Huawei will take this opportunity to stockpile Intel chips, especially Intel 11th Gen CPU like Tiger Lake. And this could have a positive impact in Intel's next earning report. https://venturebeat.com/2020/09/22/intel-given-greenlight-to-supply-some-products-to-huawei/ [link] [comments]  |
| Which green energy companies do you have the biggest positions in, and why? Posted: 23 Sep 2020 12:26 PM PDT Running up to a post COVID world and shifting expectations in energy, I want to get ahead and take advantage of September's falling numbers to buy into energy companies with great outlook, considering more and more money is starting to flow out of Big Oil into the green energy sector. Most of what I've looked into so far are solar companies, but are there any alternatives beyond solar? Companies I've been eyeing for some time:- ENPH- SEDG- FSLR- SPWR- JKS (chinese company tho, given current US/China relations, a bit more on the risky side) Outlier:- BP (with their recent announcement with MSFT and other commitments with green energy) Beyond that, it appears most places have these rated as overvalued, but I'm assuming they're undervalued for the future or did I miss my opportunity to buy in? [link] [comments]  |
| Investing in Random Stocks: My Random "Portfolio" Nearly Doubled Today Because of SPI Posted: 23 Sep 2020 02:30 PM PDT I have begun to buy up some lesser known stocks, mainly small caps, that I have found through research. Because I want to show my partner that the time I spending researching stocks and making well thought out, informed decisions (and not being the stereotypical obsessed day trader) I created a phantom portfolio of 10 random stocks. I was feeling good and beating my random portfolio made on 8/26/2020, which itself had fallen 10%. Today was a bad day all around, except for my random portfolio, which had SPI, which increased by 1260% today and at one point was up by 3100% on the news that this company, SPI Energy, announced an electric vehicle subsidiary today. WOW! What are the chances? I wonder how often retail investors beat a random portfolio of mostly small and micro caps. Do they usually lose? I am sure some gambling investors have actually tried this, probably with dreadful results. Though with volatility of microcaps like SPI, is it a risky strategy to buy 10 random microcaps, or maybe 100, to get a potentially big return? Or maybe we should all stick to index funds? Also, anyone on here have SPI in their portfolios for real? Would love to hear. [link] [comments]  |
| Ark's long term Tesla forecast is going up.. Posted: 24 Sep 2020 02:30 AM PDT A couple of Ark's people did interviews yesterday and were obviously more impressed by battery day than some. They are in the process of updating their long term forecast but basically said that Tesla's lead on the competition will be greater than even Ark envisaged. They bought a load more on the the dip yesterday. [link] [comments]  |
| Psychedelic medical stocks are way up this past week (50-100%) Posted: 23 Sep 2020 05:38 AM PDT Successful nasdaq ipo for compass, mind med announcing nasdaq listing, city decriminalization, positive study results etc. $mmedf +50% $cmps +150% Personally, I like the diversified nature of mind med since they have several drug trials. There have been plenty of shitty near scammy stocks like NUMI or red light holland that do not seem viable to me. I think the end game is for one or many of the trials to pass phase 3 for a larger pharma company to buy them out. Another attractive thing is the market cap versus total market size. A successful anxiety or opiate addiction drug could generate billions compared to the current 100mln market cap, leading to huge gains for investors. The nasdaq listing alone could be the key black swan event for mindmed, seeing as robinhooders will be able to pile on to the already rapid gains. I think now is the best time to get in while it is still OTC and the more available exchanges haven't let more common investors jump in. There are warrants but I do not see how I can buy those, maybe they are for canadians only? Overall this investment seems like one thats all or nothing. Years from now it could be worth 0 or a lot, and I am betting big on the latter. I'm very excited about this company's future so I started a sub that just focuses on it if anyone is interested. There already is one for "shroom stocks" but it lacks focus on what some people like me consider the best of the bunch. [link] [comments]  |
| Thoughts on a possible second bailout for the US airline sector? Posted: 23 Sep 2020 06:27 PM PDT What are the chances Congress passes an emergency bailout for the airlines? I know the White House has said if congress doesn't act they'll issue an executive order to help the airlines. The CEOs of JetBlue, American Airlines and United Airlines were in Washington DC yesterday asking for assistance saying they need funding before they start laying off workers starting October1st [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 23 Sep 2020 02:39 PM PDT Always wondered what the viable of random-ass companies with a limited scope of product going public is? Why does a mattress company like Casper need to raise money? Why are people saying a glasses company like Warby Parker will go public? Laird according to their S-1, , the company recorded a net loss of $5.0 million on revenue of $11.1 million, after a loss of $4.0 million on revenue of $5.4 million in the same period a year ago. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 23 Sep 2020 10:51 PM PDT Hi All! I've been thinking about the upcoming elections and wanted to know if anyone could refute the idea i have to mitigate election uncertainty. So it's still relatively uncertain on who will win the 2020 election and even then its uncertain if the outcome "accepted" by President Trump. In a recent press briefing, when asked if he would commit to honoring the results and ensuring a peaceful transfer of power he responded "we'll have to see". Is there a way to invest in equities that are not tied in any way to the United States? My original thought was Chinese equities listed on the nyse but those inherently are connected to the US and also Chinese equities will be volatile due to trade war. My next thought was investing in other emerging markets like India, Vietnam- the like. Is there any way for me to invest in either etfs or equities which are based on fundamentals that are unlikely to be perturbed by election volatility or the result of the election itself? What's your plan on dealing with election caused volatility? [link] [comments]  |
| Halp & Thoughts on a Medical Refrigeration Vaccine Play Posted: 24 Sep 2020 03:48 AM PDT So once we get a vaccine apparently it needs to be kept at stupid low temps which requires a special medical grade freezer. Im trying to find a good play here? Can anyone find a ticker that is pure medical refrigeration? I was looking at TMO - Thermo Fisher Scientific. They have already been crushing during the pandemic but they seem too diversified for this portion of their business to really effect the stock price. [link] [comments]  |
| Investing in US market from Europe Posted: 24 Sep 2020 03:30 AM PDT Hi All I'm trying to invest in US ETFs but I live in Europe and can only see EU and UK ETFs. Maybe there are trade regulations? The main ones I'm looking at for Dividends are VYM and VIG but they don't exist on platforms like DEGIRO. Is there anywhere in europe or UK I can invest in US markets? [link] [comments]  |
| How do you value proprietary software? Posted: 23 Sep 2020 07:40 PM PDT Are there some guidelines for how software/SaaS assets should be valued? This may be easier if the software has a direct revenue component (e.g. a licensing fee) but what if the software is used in a way that simply facilitates a sale (e.g. Amazon's software makes it easier for them to sell stuff, but lacking that software wouldn't necessarily make it impossible for them to sell things) or is used for a non-revenue generating purpose? How would an analyst covering a SaaS business value its proprietary software? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 24 Sep 2020 02:18 AM PDT For those purchasing hoping stocks will go up... i just cant wrap my mind around it. Theres a global pandemic and economic stability... how do you justify? I genuinely cannot figure it out. Especially how high prices are right now relative to pe and gdp. I've tried to maybe think about inflation... Inflation doesnt cause rapid double digit returns. I just don't get it. [link] [comments]  |
| Can investing in the stock market disrupt your life? Posted: 24 Sep 2020 01:58 AM PDT When I started investing a couple of years ago, I stuck to investing in index funds and ETFs on Vanguard, automated my payments, and lived my life as normal. I would only check my account once a week or so, sometimes even longer. As boring as that sounds, at least it didn't interfere with my daily routines and any other activities I do for fun. About a year ago I dipped my toes into picking individual stocks, and recently I completely got out of passive investing and I now only invest in my individual picks. As challenging (in a good way) and somewhat exciting this is, I fear it is slowly turning into obsession, to the point where I can't focus on my regular job anymore and it's affecting my interest level, my performance, and my ability to concentrate on anything else in general. I constantly check how the markets are doing every few minutes because I'm afraid of missing out on 'buying opportunities', constantly check my portfolio's performance, and constantly check the price movements on the dozens of stocks I have on my watchlist. In general, the stock market seems to be what's at the centre of my thought process at all times, and it's stopping me from functioning as a regular human being who should also be focusing on other important things in life Did anybody have a similar experience? how has it affected your life, and how did you manage this habit? [link] [comments]  |
| Why is FLEX trading at such a low market cap? Shouldn’t it be valued higher? Posted: 23 Sep 2020 10:08 PM PDT Seems strange that it's trading at one quarter worth of revenue. Isn't it a key electronic components manufacturer? Or is it not hipster enough for Wall Street to see the potential in it? It's got growth that's about on par with TSLA. Maybe the ceo needs to wear skinny jeans and talk about disruption? Some of these mismatch valuations boggle my mind. Sure it has debt that's a little high but I'm not seeing any real issue. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 23 Sep 2020 06:25 AM PDT I feel that it is a safe bet the election will not be a normal election and will cause a lot of turmoil with the market. Would this be a good time to speculate by buying a short term VIX etf? Looking at what it did in March, it really spiked with covid. I would think its possible this happens to a lesser degree with the election. Please shoot holes in this or comment otherwise. Admittedly, i havent invested in this before and appreciate feedback from thise more knowledgeable. Thanks [link] [comments]  |
| Is buying bonds now betting that bonds go negative? Posted: 23 Sep 2020 08:55 AM PDT Correction to Title: Is buying bonds now betting that interest rates* go negative?Original Post: I have a 401k that is 70% invested in the SP500 and 30% in a small/mid cap index. I was thinking about adding bonds for more diversification. However, with interest rates already at zero (until 2023), would that be wise? I know bonds go up as interest rates go down and vice versa. So I feel that if I invest in bonds now, I am betting that interest rates go negative. And I just don't see that happening. What do you think? 29 year old investor here. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 24 Sep 2020 12:35 AM PDT Hello everyone! I've never bought stock before and I want to start now :D. Specifically I want to buy some NKLA stock. I'm located in eastern Europe(Romania) and was looking at brokers that are available to me and sell this. I was thinking TradeStation Global as they seem to be available in my region and also do not have an activity fee like Interactive Brokers do and so they seem to be, in my opinion fit for the buy and hold type of thing I want to do :D. I wanted to start an account but then I noticed that this stock can be bought on Revolut. I did some online research and saw that people with experience do not have a high opinion on using Revolut instead of a broker(however I did not see a reason for this they were just saying it's not as good). In my opinion it seems way more convenient to buy some stock on Revolut rather than on a broker as you don't have to go through creating an account with the broker etc(provided you have an account with Revolut ofc). So what exactly is the downside of buying and holding stock with Revolut as opposed to a broker like say TradeStation Global? Please help me understand this. Also an extra stupid question: When I google TradeStation Global the name which people I get google results with TradeStation International...I'm guessing it's the same thing or was it a name change recently that I'm not aware about? Thank you for reading my beginner questions guys :D [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 24 Sep 2020 12:03 AM PDT I currently use finviz to scan for increases of volume the day ending but I'm missing other stocks that has volume a day or 2 ago is there any other better way ? My strategy consists of stocks with periods of solid volume(green) which are close to support or have a clear stop /support in place but by just seeing the daily high volumes it doesn't really do the trick so how would I go about this any suggestions [link] [comments]  |
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