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    Value Investing valuation how to estimate a decent discount rate for dcf?

    Value Investing valuation how to estimate a decent discount rate for dcf?


    valuation how to estimate a decent discount rate for dcf?

    Posted: 06 Aug 2020 03:12 PM PDT

    Hello friends,

    my question is how do you guys estimate a discount rate for discounted cash flow? I am a beginner at valuation and was learning about the capm model, the thing is that i have read many criticism about it, it seems all of the biggest successful investors completely disregard betas as a measure of risk, so how you guys do?

    submitted by /u/STV19
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    Question about commodity swaps - is this company misleading me?

    Posted: 06 Aug 2020 07:00 PM PDT

    I know this isn't the perfect subreddit for this, but I'm hoping someone can give me their thoughts. Relates to hedging in oil & gas.

    I work for a firm that provides a niche type of credit. We're unsecured and don't specialize in any specific industry. I had a conference call with the CFO of a natural gas production company in April who stated that the mark to market value of his company's CIG swaps position was roughly $15-20mm. I took that to mean that the company could liquidate the swaps position for that amount (and thus included it in my analysis of liquidity). I found out later that the company did indeed liquidate the position in early May but received only $3.75mm in total proceeds. I asked him why they received so little and he said that 1. the price of CIG went up between April and May and the swaps became less valuable and 2. the market is illiquid.

    I feel like I'm being misled here. First of all, I checked out the dates and for Henry Hub, the price was actually LOWER when they liquidated in May than in April (I couldn't find a CIG chart). And why would you liquidate rapidly in an illiquid market if you're not going to receive the full value? Why not just do it slowly over multiple days? I'm wondering if the CFO was telling me incorrect information in April to keep me placated/comfortable. Is there any way I could be wrong on this?

    I appreciate any help.

    submitted by /u/nickE
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