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    Stocks - Microsoft: The Story behind the Rise and Fall then Rise

    August 22, 2020

    Stocks - Microsoft: The Story behind the Rise and Fall then Rise

    Microsoft: The Story behind the Rise and Fall then Rise

    Posted: 22 Aug 2020 09:11 AM PDT

    Is Microsoft the best stock of all-time? Back in the 90s, it used to be known as the millionaire stock with how many Microsoft investors and employees saw their wealth rise on the back of the company's fortunes. The shares have split 9 times. And the company is currently the second most valuable in the world. If you invested $1,000 in the Microsoft IPO in 1986, today it'd be worth $2,130,200 – that's a total return of 212,920%, or 25% annualized returns every year for the past 34 years. By comparison, $1,000 invested in the Apple IPO would be worth $1,262,380 today.

    Microsoft's dominance in PC software was so absolute by the late 1990s that the US Government opened antitrust proceedings in 2001 and tried to break up the company. Yet only a decade later, Microsoft had largely been surpassed by Apple and Google. No longer did tech executives and business schools point to IBM as the poster child for corporate stagnation and loss of commanding market share. It was now Microsoft.

    7 years ago, Microsoft was such an afterthought that the now-famous FAANG moniker conspicuously excludes the Redmond giant despite Microsoft outperforming both Google and Facebook in the time since (and until Apple's near-30% rise the past month, Apple as well). So how did we get here?

    The journey – summarized below – revisits the mania surrounding the launch of Windows 95, an investment that saved Apple from bankruptcy, a series of failed acquisitions and product launches, and the rebirth of Microsoft under current CEO Satya Nadella.

    BASIC beginnings to PC Powerhouse (1980s to 2001)

    • In 1980, IBM – the world's largest computer manufacturer at the time – approached Microsoft with an offer to license an operating system for their soon-to-be-released IBM PC. When Microsoft received the contract, they hadn't yet built the operating system. They actually had to purchase a Seattle-based company called QDOS to help build the original MS-DOS system that Microsoft eventually licensed to IBM.
    • As part of the deal, Microsoft insisted that MS-DOS be non-exclusive to IBM. IBM thought the future of the PC was hardware. Not anticipating companies like Compaq would be able to legally reverse-engineer their PC, Big Blue agreed to the terms. And it was the ability of Microsoft to bundle MS-DOS with the various competing PCs that transformed the company into the go-to operating system provider for nearly every PC on the market. By the close of the decade, Microsoft's stock had already risen over 500% since its IPO.
    • MS-DOS was only a text-based system though, and Microsoft soon began to work on a fully graphical interface, including desktop navigation and icons, as part of a new operating system that would come to be known as Windows. Windows completely changed the game for the PC, making it much more user friendly and accessible for everyday consumers. By 1995, Windows was so synonymous with the PC that customers lined up around the block at midnight to try and get their hands on the Windows 95 release. The Empire State Building was even lit up in Microsoft colors to mark the occasion.
    • In 1997, Windows 95 and the Microsoft family of operating systems held a commanding 86.3% PC market share. In contrast to Microsoft, Apple was on the verge of bankruptcy that year. Following an emergency investment of $150mn from Microsoft, Bill Gates appeared live-on screen at an Apple event with Steven Jobs to announce the agreement. He was promptly booed.

    Complacency, Stagnation, and Decline (2001-2014)

    • While it's hard to point to a single factor that caused Microsoft to lose its way, the company became obsessed with propping up Windows as it was the company's major cash cow. New products were only deemed viable if they augmented Windows or were backward-compatible. Ultimately, this narrow focus on Windows left Microsoft over-exposed to the PC market at a time when new trends were starting to emerge in computing and digital services.
    • On December 29, 1999, Microsoft hit a split-adjusted all-time high of nearly $120 per share. A little over two weeks later, Bill Gates stepped down as CEO and Steven Ballmer ascended to lead the company. Under Ballmer, Microsoft employees repeatedly identified promising technologies, like e-readers and mobile software, only to see those projects pushed aside because they didn't revolve around Windows. Microsoft had an e-reader prototype as early as 1998, developed a mobile operating system called Windows CE, and worked on a smartphone-type device all the way back in 2000. Despite a multi-year head start in these areas, Microsoft never found success.
    • Apple released the first iPod in 2001, but it took until 2006 for Microsoft to release the rival Zune. And in a sign of how far ahead Apple now was at that point, only two months later Steve Jobs revealed an integrated music player and internet-capable phone called the iPhone. The Zune was a complete disaster, and in 2009, Apple had a 71% share of the MP3 player market.
    • Microsoft also completely missed the mark on search. In 2004, an upstart Google had been poaching talented developers – as well as some senior executives – from Microsoft for a couple years. In response, Ballmer ordered the company to start prioritizing search. Although Microsoft had several previous iterations of a search platform, the company didn't launch Bing until May 2009. Over the next 3 years Bing lost $6bn, and a failed acquisition of advertising company aQuantive in an attempt to jump-start search led to a $6.2bn write-down and the company's first-ever quarterly loss in 2012.
    • After the introduction of the iPhone, Ballmer famously said: "No chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share." Yet as PC sales plateaued then declined and the mobile market was quickly becoming the future, Microsoft's inability to develop a mobile strategy or a competing product became the embodiment of the company's failure to perceive market trends and remain relevant beyond the PC. Although Ballmer tried to get Microsoft into the game by purchasing Nokia's mobile phone division in 2013, the company never got above 3.6% market share. And in 2015, Microsoft wrote off the whole acquisition for $7.5bn.

    Nadella and the Rise of Azure (2014-Present)

    • One of Nadella's first and most important moves after taking the helm was to finally recognize that Windows could no longer drive the future of Microsoft. Instead, he made it a corporate priority to go all-in on the cloud at the exact time when enterprise IT spend was starting to show a real demand for cloud computing capabilities.
    • He also greatly changed the culture. Under Gates and Ballmer, Microsoft was the epitome of anti-competitive. Rather than work with other companies in the PC and software businesses, they used Microsoft's dominant position in both operating system and web browsing to squeeze rivals or eliminate them altogether. Nadella forced Microsoft to open, to seek out partnerships, and to even prioritize its iOS or Android mobile software offerings to the detriment of the now defunct Windows phone.
    • Today, Linux is about as widely used on Azure as Windows is. And this corporate strategy has led companies to seek out Microsoft's cloud offerings as Amazon increasingly expands into more and more industries to disrupt. Microsoft also repackaged its enterprise and productivity tools into subscription-based products rather than costly one-time downloads or annual license fees.
    • The new Microsoft strategy has empowered developers and engineers to pursue innovation in the exact opposite way that occurred under Ballmer. And the company has developed a more customer-centric approach to developing software that has resulted in a suite of bundled enterprise resource products, such as Dynamics 365, that have made the entire Office 365 SaaS offering that much more compelling for large corporations.
    • The most crucial driver in the Microsoft turnaround has been the hyper-growth of the company's Iaas and PaaS platform Azure. As much credit as Azure receives now, back in 2015 and 2016, Amazon AWS was largely considered the undisputed king of the cloud. Articles would frequently cite how AWS was bigger than Microsoft, IBM, Oracle, and Google combined. Following years of 75-100% growth rates, however, Azure is now firmly in peer status alongside AWS. This is no better evidenced than by Microsoft's $10bn contract win over Amazon for the DoD JEDI contract last year.
    • Although Azure growth is slowing, as of July 2020 AWS has 31% market share versus 20% for Azure – an amazing turnaround. And despite the disproportionate attention given to the AWS/Azure as the "cloud", Microsoft's place as the leader of enterprise SaaS means that the company actually generates more quarterly revenues ($14.3bn) from the cloud relative to Amazon ($10.8bn).

    When Nadella first took over, Microsoft's market cap sat around $300bn. Today, it's $1.6tn.

    You can find me on Twitter @BlackjacketCo where I write about emerging technologies and long-term market trends. Thanks for reading!

    submitted by /u/bumblebear3012
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    Stock-market wizard William O'Neil famously turned $5,000 into $200,000 in just a few years. Here's the 7-part model he uses to sniff out winning stocks.

    Posted: 21 Aug 2020 07:56 PM PDT

    "I went through the same process that most people do. I subscribed to a few investment letters and most of them didn't do too well."

    That's what William O'Neil, the legendary trader and author of "How to Make Money in Stocks," told Jack Schwager in a 1989 interview for his classic "Market Wizards" series.

    Out of frustration, O'Neil took the matter into his own hands. He knew a better way to trade was out there — all he had to do was uncover it. After all, he was seeing an array of fund managers crush the competition.

    "Back in 1959, I did a study of the people that were doing very well in the market," he said. "At that time, the Dreyfus fund was a very small fund, managing only about $15 million. Jack Dreyfus, who managed the fund, was doubling the results of all his competitors."

    O'Neil scoured Dreyfus' quarterly reports, searching tirelessly for any commonalities he could apply to his own methodology. After mapping out more than 100 of Dreyfus' stock purchase points, O'Neil hit pay dirt.

    "There were over 100 of these securities and when I laid them out on a table, I made my first real discovery: Not some, not most, but every single stock had been bought when it went to a new high price," he said.

    That unearthing opened the flood gates. O'Neil knew there were more secrets waiting to be uncovered.

    The search continued.

    O'Neil shifted his focus to the market's biggest winners, trying to connect the dots between the characteristics of certain stocks and their superior performance. Eventually, his research culminated in a simple seven-part model: CANSLIM.

    Allow O'Neil to explain:

    "Each letter of this name represents one of the seven chief characteristics of the all-time great winning stocks during their early developing stages, just before they made huge advances," he said.

    O'Neil's discovery translated to massive profits.

    "During 1962-63, by pyramiding the profits in three exceptional back-to-back trades — short Korvette, long Chrysler, and long Syntex — he managed to parlay an initial $5,000 investment into $200,000," Schwager said.

    Let's take a closer look at O'Neil's famed CANSLIM principles. All quotes below are from O'Neil.

    C: 'Current earnings per share'

    "The 'C' stands for current earnings per share," he said. "So, our first basic rule in stock selection is that quarterly earnings per share should be up by at least 20 to 50 percent year to year."

    A: 'Annual earnings per share'

    "In our studies, the prior five-year average annual compounded earnings growth rate of outstanding performing stocks at their early emerging stage was 24%," he said. "Ideally, each year's earnings per share should show an increase over the prior year's earnings."

    N - 'Something New'

    "The 'new' can be a new product or service, a change in the industry, or new management," he said. "In our research we found that 95 percent of the greatest winners had something new that fell within these categories."

    S - 'Shares outstanding'

    "Ninety-five percent of the stocks that performed best in our studies had less than twenty-five million shares of capitalization during the period when they had their best performance," he said. "Many institutional investors handicap themselves by restricting their purchases to only large-capitalization companies."

    L - 'Leader or laggard'

    "So, another basic rule in stock selection is to pick the leading stocks — the ones with the high relative strength values — and avoid the laggard stocks," he said. "I tend to restrict purchases to companies with relative strength ranks above 80."

    I - 'Institutional sponsorship'

    "Leading stocks usually have institutional backing," he said. "However, although some institutional sponsorship is desired, excessive sponsorship is not, because it would be a source of large selling if anything went wrong with the company or the market in general."

    M - 'Market'

    "Three out of four stocks will go in the same direction as a significant move in the market averages," he said. "That is why you need to learn how to interpret price and volume on a daily basis for signs that the market has topped."

    submitted by /u/iggy555
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    Tesla just surpassed Walmart in market value. Here are the 8 remaining S&P 500 companies worth more than Tesla.

    Posted: 22 Aug 2020 12:12 PM PDT

    Some interesting news in the stock market this week

    Posted: 22 Aug 2020 04:00 AM PDT

    Barrick Gold $GOLD jumped 10% on Monday after Berkshire Hathaway filings showed Mr Buffett's firm had purchased around $540 million of stock. Depending on what news you follow you could take this as;

    • a u-turn by Warren Buffett on his previously held skepticism on gold, or
    • a negative outlook for the US economy (from the man who said never bet against America) or
    • (perhaps more likely) a relatively small position in a strong company trading on a cheap valuation.

    Barrick Gold is one of the largest mining companies in the world that has seen its stock price rise 50% this year as the gold price has risen 33% from $1,500 per oz to close to $2,000. However, Barrick Gold has a break even gold price of just $950 per oz meaning that its profit per oz has just doubled from $500 to $1,000. That should boost profits significantly. Barrick already looked very reasonably priced on a trailing PE of 11.71 with close to zero net debt. If the gold price stays close to recent levels, even for a few quarters, it will look like a bargain.

    On Tuesday the S&P finally managed to close above its previous all time high as Home Depot reported an impressive top and bottom line beat with comp sales and earnings rising 23.4% and 27% respectively. General Motors also got a boost from Morgan Stanley who followed other firms in valuing $GM's electric vehicle business at around $20bn compared to the firm's current total market valuation of $40bn. That makes a spin off a potentially lucrative option and follows GM's CEO comment last month that "nothing was off the table". Deutsche Bank went further to say spinning off the EV business could release a "massive amount of value" that could be potentially be worth up to $100bn.

    On Wednesday, Intel CEO Bob Swan said the shares were well below their intrinsic value and announced a $10bn accelerated stock repurchase program. The stock is down 20% since the company announced delays to its 7 nanometer production technology. That drop does look overdone as the medium term impact of the delays should only hit around 5%-10% of revenues while IoT, online security, automated driving and numerous other businesses should continue to grow rapidly. Investors appear worried that Intel's glory days are behind it and that the stock is about to go the same way as IBM. However, even if that were the case, Intel still looks cheap with a trailing PE of 9.0 compared to IBM's 14.0.

    On Thursday, numerous analysts jumped to TJX's support saying that the long term story had not changed. Disappointing results on Wednesday saw the stock drop close to 20% on the week to close at $51.68. However, Wells Fargo rates TJX stock overweight with a $70 price target and said the "squishy" near-term will give way "over the long-term as a flood of inventory enters the off-price marketplace in the wake of 2020, ultimately pushing margins to all-time highs,". Guggenheim's Robert Drbul reiterated a Buy rating and $65 price target on Thursday and said that investors should use "share price weakness as an incremental buying opportunity."

    Finally on Friday Hindenburg Research published an alarming report that alleged GrowGeneration's management team had "extensive ties to alleged pump & dump schemes, organized crime and various acts of fraud." GrowGeneration has responded saying it intends to take action against Hindenburg. It said the statements were false and defamatory and "designed to provide a false impression to investors and to manipulate the market to benefit short sellers". I don't know which version is correct but I did notice this disclaimer;

    "Hindenburg Research makes no representation, express or implied, as to the accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of any such information"

    I know these disclaimers are pretty widespread but what is the point of reading research by a firm that refuses to stand over it.

    On that note here is my own disclaimer;

    This is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Stocks are not suitable for everyone. Some of the stocks mentioned are risky small cap and/or highly speculative. Please do your own research.

    submitted by /u/InterestingNews1
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    Since the stock split announcement, every minute you spend asking reddit if you should buy TSLA, you lose $0.17.

    Posted: 21 Aug 2020 09:43 PM PDT

    On average TSLA has gone up $67.1/day since the announcement of the stock split. Market hours are open 6.5 hours each day. Each hour is about $10.32 so for every minute you spend asking reddit if you should buy, you've lost $0.17/share. Don't question the meme stock. It actually has a product that is in high demand and the stock went nowhere in the previous 10 years (floated around $100-400) and at the time, it was undervalued because 99% of people didn't understand it.

    Edit: this post is NOT suggesting to buy now. But it's also not suggesting to sell or wait for the dip to buy either. Make your own decisions. The risk is very high. If you invest now, it could go up another 5-10% to only drop 30%. No one knows at this point. There's a lot of catalysts coming up in September like battery day and Q3 earnings. Don't be surprised if we see a sell off before or immediately after. There's very high expectations for the million mile battery.

    As always, do your own research and invest based on your own risk tolerance. If you lose money during this ride, use this experience as a learning lesson. No regrets.

    submitted by /u/DisastrousBluebirb
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    Can old(er) investors tell me what is going on?

    Posted: 22 Aug 2020 08:23 AM PDT

    Hello stock investors. I've been investing in the stock market for a while now but never have I seen these types of gains in history. I've read countless books on investing and all points to getting the hell out as soon as possible but the past few months have not been the case. I've also been checking online forums and there has seem to be a new wave of overly optimistic investors. It seems like the market should've crashed for a second time already (1st in March). Can older investors share their thoughts? Or are we simply entering a new age? The way it has been going since March is something that has not been seen before throughout history. They say what comes up, must come down. So when and will we experience the biggest crash in history/ and soon?

    Please keep clean. Thank you.

    submitted by /u/raindr8p
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    Which stocks will jump post Covid?

    Posted: 22 Aug 2020 01:23 PM PDT

    Hello all, I will be putting a down payment on a house 2-3 years from now. I know as a general rule you should not place money in the markets that you know you will need within 5 years. I am going against that as more money on a down payment will help a lot in the long run.

    I am hoping within 3 years this COVID crisis will recede, and companies who were hit the hardest will begin to flourish. I am hoping to place money on these companies now In hopes they will grow, which I can then use the money against my house.

    Some of these clear companies are Delta, and Royal Caribbean. I wanted to see what others people all bullish on in the next few years?

    Any advice will help! Thank you very much

    submitted by /u/wingwing8
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    Just saw a post that said “500 point drop to 1500 is impossible” and people were backing him up.

    Posted: 21 Aug 2020 03:45 PM PDT

    This is my time to short. When people say "it's impossible for a 25% drop in Tesla" and people back that guy up it's clear that people have no idea.

    Tesla went up nearly 1000% in a year. 350% in a few months. A 25% drop is definitely possible.

    submitted by /u/CrustyMold
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    Trailing stop loss and stop loss during an afterhours crash

    Posted: 22 Aug 2020 11:48 AM PDT

    Hi everyone,

    Most of my portfolio is long hold but right now I'm riding the wave of a popular stock trying to swing trade it and sell it before its possible crash. I want to get out safely and I'm not that greedy. I was thinking of setting up a trailing stop loss that should hit at about ~20% drop of the stock price but I have 2 questions:

    1. is 20% drop the optimal I should be aiming for? 15% seems safer but I'm worried 15% might not indicate a total crash and could be just volatility. Should I go for 15%? Or should I even bump it up to 25% in case it rebounds after crashing?
    2. I'm even more worried about what happens if the stock crashes in the after hours with lets say 50% - is it possible for such a crash to occur in the afterhours market thus triggering my stop loss to execute at a much higher loss than I set it to?

    Thanks!

    submitted by /u/Seddyx
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    Looking for best ETF with highest share of TSLA, AMZN, MSFT, AAPL (available in Europe)

    Posted: 22 Aug 2020 10:27 AM PDT

    Hi! Do you know any ETSs with high share of mentioned companies that I can buy in Europe?
    I only can get ETFs on DEU-XETRA or GBR-LSE.

    TSLA
    AMZN
    AAPL
    MSFT

    Edit. The list of etfs that my broker offers List of all ETFs

    Edit2. This is the best I found so far
    iShares NASDAQ-100 UCITS ETF

    submitted by /u/Adi_PL
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    What could Biden/Trump winning the 2020 election mean for the stock market?

    Posted: 22 Aug 2020 08:01 AM PDT

    I read that since Biden was pro-green his victory could cause stocks such as OXY (Occidental Petroleum) to fall, so I was wondering what else could change.

    submitted by /u/salamunka
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    What about Green, Sustainable Stocks?

    Posted: 22 Aug 2020 09:40 AM PDT

    Hi! I'm new to investing (still in college), and wanted to ask this group about sustainable company stocks. More specifically, I was looking at stocks like GCTAY (Siemens Gamesa) and VWDRY (Vestas). I buy through Vanguard as well. Personally, I think that these types of stocks have loads of potential in the future, especially because they largely operate in Europe and in Northern Europe. They have high potential to come to the US as well, and in a couple of decades, may be the leaders of the renewable energy era. What are your thoughts? Thanks!

    TLDR: I'm new to stocks, and was wondering about your thoughts on sustainability stocks, like wind energy companies?

    submitted by /u/daddyshark_
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    ARKs and Roth

    Posted: 22 Aug 2020 10:05 AM PDT

    So currently in my Roth I have $FZROX $FTBFX $FZILX $REET. FZILX and FZROX make up over 90% of portfolio. I'm considering adding $ARKK and maybe ARKF. However I'm also considering having Ark investments in a brokerage account only so I was going to do ARKW + ARKG and possibly ARKF.

    With my current holdings in the Roth would you still add ARKK? Or just have them in brokerage. If the latter, how does the pairing look? I'm 24 so I can/don't mind long playing.

    submitted by /u/Olyone
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    MSFT wins cloud contract with Defence Dept. Aims to push for more contracts with foreign govts - up 1.2% after hours.

    Posted: 21 Aug 2020 09:36 PM PDT

    Good news for Microsoft. Once you've landed the big fish the others should be no problem. I expect if they continue with these contracts can only spell good things for revenue. Thoughts?

    submitted by /u/Bob_Deck
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    Square(SQ) discussion

    Posted: 22 Aug 2020 12:16 PM PDT

    What is your bear/bull scenario for Square in 3/5/10 years?

    I understand that square is trying to disrupt the banking industry and that they are trying to get into e-commerce as well. But how big of a opportunity is this?

    I've been doing some research on it but I don't understand square like I understand tesla atm. I need more insight into it.

    At the moment I own 0 shares of Square. Is right now the best time to buy considering the recent run-up + high P/E ratio. I plan on holding 5+ years

    submitted by /u/HarjodhKharbar
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    What Happened to CSQ?

    Posted: 22 Aug 2020 10:51 AM PDT

    CSQ fell more than 4% in aftermarket trading on Friday. I'm concerned because it's a decent part of my portfolio and was wondering if anybody knows what happened. I hope it's just a glitch, but does anybody know?

    submitted by /u/WSB_Goof
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    Question over Pfizer and BNTX on Friday just past.

    Posted: 22 Aug 2020 11:23 AM PDT

    I understand that good news not always lead to stock going up. What I don't quite understand is why the good news release of their collaboration vaccine progress only leads to BNTX rocket 13% but Pfizer's price barely moved, if not dropping. Why they behave drastically different over the same news incentive? Is there an financial reason ?

    submitted by /u/ML33M
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    What's going on with Nintendo (NTDOY)?

    Posted: 22 Aug 2020 07:03 AM PDT

    They're up over 7% in the last week. I am glad since I bought them at about $40 in April 2019 (thus having over 50% gains), but as a gamer, I don't remember any major news coming from Nintendo lately. The only things that come to mind are the recent Indie World direct, and the announcement that they're gonna sell the Switch in Brazil. But would that really be enough to cause these gains? I don't recall there being any investor meetings lately, either.

    I totally get that the Switch is the console in these times, though - especially with the success of Animal Crossing: New Horizons. I keep hearing about how popular the Switch is during Covid, and how there's been many shortages.

    Also, not that this matters, but I also don't even own a Switch myself - at least not yet. I'm holding out for a rumored revised version, like some sort of "Switch Pro," but I definitely plan to get one eventually.

    submitted by /u/mie11004
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    For a publicly traded company, is it a certainty that the company management's goal to increase the stock price?

    Posted: 22 Aug 2020 11:11 AM PDT

    E.g. say I invest in company XYZ at $50 a share. Is it certain that the company CEO is actually trying to increase the stock price? What if they don't care at all about the stock price?

    submitted by /u/HorselessHeadlessMan
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    Can orders still go through if funds don’t settle in my account?

    Posted: 22 Aug 2020 10:11 AM PDT

    I bought a total of 25 shares on Thursday. I am about $1k short and started the transfer as of last night. Will my last few shares get cancelled out by Monday? It says it'll transfer in my account by Tuesday. I had Schwab.

    submitted by /u/ineed8letters
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    Softbank Group Corp

    Posted: 22 Aug 2020 12:49 PM PDT

    Opinions on SoftBank Group corporation. Just read an interesting article on Barron's about this company and would like to hear other people's opinion on them.

    submitted by /u/CameronS608
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    Anyone have a performance comparison for SPY CSP/covered calls versus vanguard?

    Posted: 22 Aug 2020 10:50 AM PDT

    The goal of the spy and options would be to generate 1-2% per month in premium, buy using ATM options. annualized is 12-24% ( does not include years of very little premium or huge drops, such as the march 2020, where you wouldnt be able to collect meaningful (1-2%)premium without going 3-6 months out.

    The risk here is you may not be able to collect that premium in a sudden drop, without going further out in time.

    How does vanguard compare with this?

    submitted by /u/badtradesguy
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    Looking to hedge a stock market crash with January UVXY calls. How do I determine a good strike price?

    Posted: 22 Aug 2020 11:37 AM PDT

    Hey guys, been investing in stocks for a long time, but newly into options. I believe a crash is coming and was considering hedging with some Uvxy calls (or Vxx calls). Any idea how to Pick a strike price in this scenario? I've been running all kinds of numbers on this one.

    submitted by /u/Vertigo778
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    ETF advice

    Posted: 22 Aug 2020 11:32 AM PDT

    I have a shortlist of individual stocks in my portfolio, but I'm only looking to add to ETFs moving forward as a way to mitigate risk in case a correction happens in the short to mid term.

    As far as my ETFs go, I have VUG, VOO, VB, and VTI (in order of highest to lowest weight).

    Looking for advice here- if I were to consolidate, do you think getting rid of VOO and VB would be the best ones to lose? I'd look to prioritize reinvesting into VUG (I'm only 24), but I'd also be mindful of adding to VTI as my anchor.

    Hoping for a good discussion! Thank you.

    submitted by /u/hrm015
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