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    Sunday, August 2, 2020

    Stocks - How many “I’m a teenager” posts do we think are actual teenagers??

    Stocks - How many “I’m a teenager” posts do we think are actual teenagers??


    How many “I’m a teenager” posts do we think are actual teenagers??

    Posted: 02 Aug 2020 06:24 AM PDT

    Rather than full grown humans who think they'll get more beginner investing advice if they say they're kids? I'm starting to wonder what the percentage is...

    submitted by /u/2old4
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    The sector that returned 20x, 50x, 100x and even 1,000x between 2002 and 2007 and now looks set to do so again

    Posted: 02 Aug 2020 05:40 AM PDT

    For those of you that have not seen my previous posts about the case for a big uranium bull market, check out this one for an explanation of the sector with recommendations and this one for a recent market update.

    Since these posts we have a had a big run up, but also a big drop this past week. I got several messages from people that wanted to know what happened to make these stocks drop so much after it looked like the bull market finally got started. Well don't worry because the bull marker has already begun and we are still very early into it, with many uranium stocks still severely underpriced to what they can offer.

    So what happend? Well Cameco had a conference call and the market did not like what they had to show in terms of their earnings report, but why have they taken down most of the other uranium companies as well then? Because they announced they were bringing Cigar Lake, seen as the single best uranium mine in the world, back into production starting September. The market was clearly afraid that this would disrupt the supply deficit so many people are counting on to propel this bull market foreward, but what happened was a severe overreaction.

    The fact Cameco put their mine back online means one thing in the eyes of the industry insiders, which is that they cannot fulfill their contracts by buying from the spot market like they have done so many times in the past few years. This tells me the spot marker is tighter than ever and with Kazatomprom also looking to buy supply from the spot market and sell from their own reserves, the total amount of mobile global supply is dwindling. It is projected that this year alone, 40 million pounds of uranium will not be able to reach the market, a gap that is only going to get bigger as years go by and demand increases.

    Well it seems like more and more people, even some very cautious and conservative ones, are predicting the market to reach highs even beyond those seen in 2007. This is because 2007 was caused by the flooding of Cigar Lake and a percieved supply deficit for nuclear power plants. Now we have: 1. a real supply deficit that literally won't even be solved if all mines in the world start producing at full capacity right now, because by 2030 we will need several more Cigar Lake grade mines

    1. way fewer viable companies in the sector that can claim a part of the capital flowing in (from 500 to 40 roughly)

    2. a lot more power plants under construction and being proposed around the world

    3. generally a better sentiment and more support for nuclear power than in 2007, even the Democrats and Republicans agree for once that we need nuclear power and for that we need constant uranium supply

    4. the possibility of way more capital flowing in by: the people that made tons of money off of the previous bull market and will undoubtably do so again if given half a chance, retail investors who jumped on the rocket with similar investments on online trading platforms and hedge funds that now see the possible profits that can be had and are adding uranium to their portfolios

    Personally I am more bullish than I have ever been about any other possible investment idea and I have made uranium stocks take up a very significant part of my total portfolio for that reason. Coming monday will be an announcement from Kazatomprom where they will likely state that, in accordance with Kazakhstan's 2 week extension of their lockdown, the uranium production will not be resumed for at least the coming weeks. If the market reacts how everyone thinks it is going to react, next week will be the last chance to get into these companies before the market rises another big chunk and I have thus added to Cameco, Energy Fuels and Denison Mines.

    TLDR: This is more than likely the last sell-off to end the first part of this bull run and there are another 9 parts to this. After Kazakhstan announced another 2 weeks added to their lockdown, the bullish sentiment got even greater and to add to it Cameco and Kazatomprom are buying reserves from the spot marker, further depleting mobile supply. The bull case has only gotten better and these prices are just about as on sale as they will get until the bull goes parabolic

    submitted by /u/3STmotivation
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    15 yrs old, no bills so i’m putting every check that i get into the market

    Posted: 01 Aug 2020 08:02 PM PDT

    I told my dad to buy ADBE back in 2017 and he doubled his money. I told my dad to buy TCEHY back in april of 2020 and it's up 40% now. So for my 16th birthday tomorrow he opened up a custodial account for me and gave me all 10 shares of TCEHY that he bought joking about how i have a "good track record" and telling me that there's no point in putting my money in the bank if i don't have any financial responsibilities. I just put in an additional $400 of my own money from my last two mcdonalds checks. What should i buy with that? I'm thinking AMD. also i know that $400 is not a lot of money, i just want to see what other people think.

    submitted by /u/Headline123
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    Primer on Stock Splits

    Posted: 02 Aug 2020 07:56 AM PDT

    Apple has announced a 4-for-1 stock split in the last week of July 2020. Many amateur investors onboarded with excitement and have started preparing to buy now "cheap" AAPL.

    Stock splits were invented to make shares of a company (stocks) more affordable for individual investors. During a 4-for-1 stock split, one share of a stock is converted into four shares, with respective price adjustments. For every share of AAPL they own, investors receive 4 new shares at 1/4 original price each.

    A stock split does not imply a good investment opportunity, nor any notion of the stock becoming "cheap".

    To obtain hands-on experience with stock splits, I encourage the reader to visit a grocery store down the street and exchange a $20 bill for four $5 dollar ones. The hope of building wealth this way is a mistake.

    submitted by /u/vitddnv-fu12y
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    AAPL Tomorrow

    Posted: 02 Aug 2020 08:43 AM PDT

    Planning on dropping $6500 into AAPL tomorrow. To do that, I will be cutting my V and MSFT by a bit, the rest is cash already on hand.

    That would make it about 6% of my overall holdings, matching V, DIS and GOOG.

    My financial manager is in the midst of talking me out of it as he believes AAPL isnt a good investment at the moment, being at its ATH and now the most valuable company on earth.

    Could use some thoughts on this.

    submitted by /u/MajinJuuu
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    PTON - The most bullish i've ever been on a stock

    Posted: 02 Aug 2020 08:44 AM PDT

    I wrote this up earlier for why PTON is positioned for exponential growth over the next 5 years. I'd love to hear any counterpoints that I may not have considered.

    1. They have been selling every bike they have, the wait times are between 5-10 weeks to actually get your bike. The people delivering the bikes have talked about how crazy busy they've been. They are going to sell every bike they can make this year.
    2. For gyms that have been allowed to open up, people are not flocking back to gyms. Imagine many people touching the same equipment, breathing heavily near each other (increased minute ventilation due to exercise = increased probability to spread). Especially other cycling places like soulcycle or orange theory fitness - they have very small gyms and have had to cut down their capacity to less than 50% and are making people wear masks (most people are hating having to work out in masks, and many are hating not being able to get a spot in a class they've paid a ton of money for). Go to the orange theory subreddit and search peloton, many people bought a peloton and aren't going back to orange theory. (https://www.reddit.com/r/orangetheory/comments/gsl1hy/peloton/)
    3. The brand "Peloton" has become a status symbol, similar to apple and lulu. It is now a $BECKY stock. No brand has ever become positioned like this to take hold of the fitness sphere before (no not even bowflex, it did not have the same brand appeal, and continued consumer engagement with live classes/subscriber model).
    4. The live classes are amazing and the many hosts they have are each now celebrities on their own, Peloton has a cult following
    5. They were spending insane amounts of money on marketing, since COVID started and demand outgrew supply, they stopped most of their marketing (saving them tons of money)
    6. The connected fitness model with live classes is not just a covid play, it was going to happen regardless and COVID just sped it up
    7. Peloton is not just a workout equipment maker, each of their cycles has a $40 per month subscription for their live classes. During COVID, the number of people attending these classes has exponentially increased
    8. They also have a $13 per month app for live workout classes that has become very popular during COVID.
    9. They are expanding to other countries, most aggressively in Europe
    10. They have an impressively low churn rate (loss of subscribers), they are consistently beating their subscriber goals quarter by quarter
    11. They have new products that they will be announcing, including likely a cheaper bike and an a mostly confirmed cheaper treadmill
    12. Their most recent earnings were great, and this only captured about 1-2 weeks of the COVID surge, this next earnings report will show just how well positioned they were for this surge.
    13. Using google trends, Peloton seems to have a dominant hold on the market when compared to nordictrack and echelon https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=peloton,nordictrack,echelon
    14. Peloton's are also being placed in many hotel gyms and are becoming increasingly common in high end apartment gyms

    - What could limit this stock: If they are not able to adequately ramp up manufacturing, but they have said that they were greatly adding manufacturing capacity for the past 4 months.

    Common thought "I would never buy a $2200 exercise bike with a $40 subscription fee, so I don't believe in PTON." Me either, it's not the right product for me and how I work out, but I can't ignore that there are millions of people that it is right for.

    Think about it this way, orange theory fitness (with over 1 million members)and soul cycle gyms are very expensive to go cycle in yet they are packed - orange theory is 160 per month and soulcycle is about $30-40 per class. Someone can get a Peloton with 2 year 0% financing and it comes out to $90 per month. People already spend a decent bit on gyms. So a married couple that both goes to orange theory pays $360 per month (and even if they chose the lower 8 classes per month each at $100 per month it's $200), they save a decent bit of money with PTON. And at the end of those 2 years they own the bike and are only paying $40 per month. People that work out are trying their best to stay fit during covid, perfect timing for PTON.

    Watching their CEO discuss their growth and boom in sales was very encouraging on NPR's How I Built This recently was also great, highly recommend watching this.

    Currently awaiting an earnings date, likely 3+ weeks away despite the estimated dates floating around.

    submitted by /u/PacerFan
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    August - Market Outlook

    Posted: 02 Aug 2020 12:19 PM PDT

    Last week the market shrugged off pandemic setbacks, received comforting remarks from the Fed, great earnings from the big tech stocks and GDP with a record decline. With the U.S. presidential election only a few months away, August will likely be a stimulating month for the markets.

    Fundamental: Q2 GDP advance estimate showed a decrease of 32.9%, which was significantly better than the original projections of a 40-50% decrease. This was the worst quarterly decline on record. For reference the worst quarter during the financial crisis of 2008-2009 was a decline off 6.3% in March of 2009. Based on the markets recent reaction, it seems that people are confident that the worst has passed and that further economic shutdowns will not take place. Weekly jobless claims are also well off their peak of 6.6M, although they have picked up slightly and have remained well above 1 million as many areas of the economy remain closed or are taking steps backwards. Earning reports have been well above the overly pessimistic expectations as well.

    Technical: NASDAQ within 1% of all-time highs. S&P 500 positive year-to-date, DJIA is trailing both and Russell 2000 is down over 10% on the year. This divide is also in the overall economy and is likely to persist until the pandemic diminishes. The NASDAQ, S&P and DIJA are bullishly above their respective 50- and 200-day moving averages. NASDAQ and S&P 500 are strongest with their 50-day moving averages above their 200-day moving averages. Previous highs are likely to prove formidable resistance for DJIA and S&P 500. NASDAQ's Apple, Google, Facebook and Amazon all with better than expected earnings.

    Monetary: 0 – 0.25%. At the Fed meeting earlier this week, the tone was overall cautiously optimistic. Chair of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, stated that activity has picked up since the lows but remains below pre-pandemic levels. They also pointed out a fair amount of uncertainty present and that the "path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus." Nothing truly shocking. To alleviate some of this uncertainty, the Fed further committed to do everything in its power to support the recovery.

    Seasonal: Neutral. August has been the worst DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ month of the year since 1988. This election year could be different since the pandemic has changed the date and structure of the conventions which have historically taken place in July.

    Psychological: Overall sentiment is hovering right around levels seen near recent highs going back to late 2018. Sentiment has often lingered at elevated bullish levels for varying lengths of time before any meaningful retreat occurs. As long as the major indexes hold up, sentiment is likely to remain bullish.

    Link from source: www.vhinny.com/education/monthly-market-outlook/august-outlook

    This is a quick summery of the market I wrote up. Let me know if you think this is useful and if there is anything that should be added.

    submitted by /u/landstein
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    TSLA 5-10%+ Swing Monday

    Posted: 02 Aug 2020 10:28 AM PDT

    Here's a great trade whether you're using options, margin, etc.

    TSLA has hugee elevating factors:

    1. recent gap down with momentum reversing into a upward trend
    2. consistent gap up history on Monday's
    3. incoming S and P 500 incorporation
    4. successful splashdown of SpaceX today
    5. Increased institutional/insider ownership, leading to increased price movements-stacking on top of the gap up on Monday history
    6. Possible stimulus confirmation

    Safe PT would be ~1485 and could run to 1600's. Hope this helps!

    submitted by /u/dlongstrong
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    $RDHL - Undervalued?

    Posted: 02 Aug 2020 12:40 PM PDT

    Covid-19 Potential: First, they've been developing a cancer treatment Opaganib. The drug has been in the pipeline and they've found it to be an effective treatment for covid-19 in limited studies/compassionate use cases in Israel. The drug is starting phase 2 studies in the US this month, and phase 2/3 studies internationally are underway. The drug has an anti-viral effect and reduces inflammation in the lungs. ARK's IZRL ETF has added shares recently and RDHL is now the ETF's largest holding.

    Even if a vaccine is approved before Opaganib, if vaccine production doesn't meet demand or people are apprehensive to get a fast-tracked vaccine this treatment option may still see widespread use.

    Everything Else: They've been bleeding money on R&D the last few years, but are expected to turn it around this year. Revenues will be up this year primarily due to licensing Movantik. Movantik did $96M in sales last year, and the first revenue's for RDHL with the drug are $7.3M in April. Preliminary estimates for Q2 revenue are ~$21M (July form 6-K).

    In Q2 they should start to see revenues from three drugs: Talicia, Aemcolo, and Movantik which should increase dramatically going forward, and a strong pipeline of drugs in studies.

    Revenues for '17/'18/'19 were $4M, $8.3M, and $6.2M respectively. Revenues for '20/'21/'22 are estimated at $73.3M, $146M, and $186.5M.

    The stock price is currently at $7.93, and I've seen analyst price targets between $14 and $18, which doesn't take into account the potential covid treatment.

    I think RDHL looks pretty attractive, and has tons of room to run if their covid treatment is actually successful in trials. Has anyone else been looking at RDHL, any input on why this is or isn't a good investment?

    *I do not own any RDHL positions, but may as of tomorrow.

    submitted by /u/bentleycntlgt
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    LLC to manage portfolio? Pros and cons

    Posted: 02 Aug 2020 11:00 AM PDT

    Are there advantages of setting up an LLC (USA) to actively manage your investments and trading?

    Tax benefits? Possible door to IRA as self employed? Other?

    Any cons?

    submitted by /u/airetupal
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    Cybersecurity stocks

    Posted: 02 Aug 2020 07:52 AM PDT

    Happy Sunday! Been doing a lot of research lately on the importance of cybersecurity and 3 stocks stood out the most. Fortinet, Palo Alto Networks and CrowdStrike. My goal s to invest long term in one of these companies. Which stock is the best positioned to outperform it's competitors and dominate the industry?

    submitted by /u/MaxandmillionB89
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    What is one thing you wish you knew when you started investing?

    Posted: 02 Aug 2020 08:57 AM PDT

    I'm very new to the stock market, at 16 years old I received a $500 gift to invest. I have spent a couple hours researching the stock market, so any tips or tricks would be appreciated. Recommendations for which stocks I should buy into would also be greatly appreciated. Thank you!

    submitted by /u/IsaacFultzGod
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    best investment app?

    Posted: 02 Aug 2020 12:35 PM PDT

    i currently use Stash but i'm becoming disenchanted with them. their fees really cut into my returns. i've also been reading a lot of shady stories about money disappearing or ppl not being able to get their funds back into their bank account. i don't want to keep putting money into an app that might rip me off.

    are there any comparable apps that allow buying fractional shares & ETFs that are better?

    submitted by /u/ratshow
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    Was given a portfolio as a gift, should I reallocate?

    Posted: 01 Aug 2020 05:51 PM PDT

    I have received a portfolio invested almost completely in conservative mutual funds. Looks to be about 65% fixed income mutual funds(AFTEX) and 35% equities(LBSCX). It is a brokerage account with an attached advisor that has hefty transaction fees. Annual returns don't look amazing but it is partially tax free and somewhat safe. I'm 25 years old and am wondering if it would be better to switch this over to a more aggressive approach.

    submitted by /u/OG_vaporeon
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    Amd

    Posted: 02 Aug 2020 03:41 AM PDT

    What do you think of AMD?I know it already went up a lot but still thinking it might go up even more, because right now it's dominating the CPU market. Should I buy or hold. Not investing a large sum, just 160$.

    submitted by /u/Lucawien
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    Cut my losses with airlines?

    Posted: 02 Aug 2020 09:04 AM PDT

    Relatively new to investing here just to provide some context. I have a decent stake in Air Canada (AC) and Delta Airlines (DAL). I've suffered a decent loss on them overall and I know they were supposed to be long term (very long term) but things are looking pretty bad. Many analysts are saying some of these airlines won't be able to recover since normal flying won't be back for years now. Even with these airlines being relatively liquid and having the cushion of a government bailout it's going to be tough for the to survive. I've been so back and forth on whether to hold or to just cut my losses and start looking for something else. Any suggestions?

    submitted by /u/vandalxvisuals
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    What is your favourite technique to hedge against stock market crashes?

    Posted: 02 Aug 2020 07:06 AM PDT

    Hedging against a drop in your portfolio isn't always for anyone, but it is often we hear about fund managers hedging their portfolios. Most notable case of this was Ray Dalio in 2019 Q3/Q/4 having put options for March 2020.

    My question is, what is your favourite way to hedge from downturns? Derivatives, bonds, or what else?

    submitted by /u/VisionsDB
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    Roboadvisor is linked with my portfolio and I don’t know why

    Posted: 02 Aug 2020 10:51 AM PDT

    Has anyone had this happen? SigFig, a roboadvisor with a free portfolio tracker, sent me an email with a detailed update about my performance.

    To provide this information, they need to be synced with my eTrade account. But I don't have an account with SigFig.

    Just in case I signed up and forgot, I used my email to retrieve the account password for SigFig. I never got an email in return.

    Apparently, SigFig is synced with my eTrade account and knows my main email address even though I don't have an account with them.

    I changed the password on my eTrade account, but I'm still pretty disturbed.

    UPDATE: My broker is opening a fraud investigation and placed a hold so no money can be moved from my accounts. I also changed my username and password.

    submitted by /u/CatHatJess
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    Your thoughts on these stocks

    Posted: 02 Aug 2020 08:33 AM PDT

    Hey folks, i have invested in couple stocks. Couple of gold and mining companies. Do you think i should hold them longterm or should i claim my profits now. I mean, is it okay to hold mining companies longterm?

    Ticker/ profit

    QEP +100$ Amx +189$ Cpg +30$
    EDR +200$ Oil +10$ Peix +500$

    So, what are your thoughts?

    submitted by /u/hthaya
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    Fractional Shares Investing with Extended Time Limit Order

    Posted: 02 Aug 2020 02:07 PM PDT

    Now that brokerages are allowing purchases of fractional shares is anyone aware of a brokerage that has the ability to set fractional shares with limit order that are good for several months (the longer the better) currently using fidelity and allows for limit order upto 6 months and limit order on fractional shares but time is good for day only. Figure it's only a matter of time before feature gets added. Would like to get limit order for $1 then when reaches price target set limit orders in sequence. Example track $100 every 1% down etc.

    submitted by /u/Tomobongo
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    How much money to invest for my dividend stocks to buy new stocks?

    Posted: 02 Aug 2020 02:04 PM PDT

    I've been investing for a year, but my dividends still aren't enough to buy a stock on their own. How much money do I need to invest to make that happen? Or is it better to stop drip and direct all dividends to a particular stock? The pandemic has helped me buy more stocks at a discount, but the stocks I've bought have their dividend stocks. Once the travel and luxury industries return to normal, I feel like I'll have enough dividends to have my dividends buy stocks on their own. Still, how much money typically needs to be invested until that happens? Would it be better to invest heavily in a specific stock until the dividends reach the price number?

    submitted by /u/SuperDogBoo
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    Wash sale question

    Posted: 02 Aug 2020 07:56 AM PDT

    I ended up with a wash sale that I wasn't planning on. I bought some shares of CMG. Then on 2 different days within the week I bought some more as it dropped down some to bring down my cost basis per share. About a week later I sold all shares for a small profit over my new cost basis. The price I sold at was above most of my shares, but was below some of the first ones I bought. The loss on those first shares show up on Fidelity as a wash sale so I can't count those losses against my gains for tax purposes. I thought that to create a wash sale I would have had to buy CMG again within 30 days after I sold. But I never bought CMG again after I sold all my shares so why did I end up with a wash sale on those first shares?

    submitted by /u/investortrade
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    $TA - ripe for a turnaround story

    Posted: 02 Aug 2020 09:47 AM PDT

    Background: TravelCenters of America (TA) operates 263 gas stations across the country geared mainly towards trucks/RVs, in addition to cars. The gas stations are mainly located along the highway outside of inner cities, serving mostly travelers (hence the name).

    I think there are several tailwinds for the company/industry:

    1. Trucking volumes have been recovering since the U.S. supply chain has remained robust and because there has been a huge increase in e-commerce shipments (see AMZN, SHOP, and UPS earnings).
    2. Increase in domestic vacation travel by vehicle (cars & RVs). Americans aren't even allowed to travel to Canada now, much less the rest of the world. More and more people are opting for domestic vacations, especially to national parks, and are driving to their destinations (see herefor air traveler throughput leveling off in the 700k range). This can also be seen in the RV sales numbers which jumped 10% in June YoY.
    3. Fuel margins have exploded recently. See $MUSA earnings (the closest pure play comp as a gas station operator) detailing how their margins have expanded during this time and how that is here to stay for a while.

    The company has also shaken up its organization (replacing the CEO and CFO over the last half year or so) and has eliminated a lot of headcount (equaling $13 million in annual savings). The new leadership comes from impressive backgrounds operating other turnaround stories; I hope they can do the same with TA.

    Disclaimer: I have a long position in the stock.

    submitted by /u/jk_tilt
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