Dow notches best quarter since 1987, a rebound helped by low interest rates and government stimulus amid COVID-19 Investing |
- Dow notches best quarter since 1987, a rebound helped by low interest rates and government stimulus amid COVID-19
- Did anyone actually read the Dodd stress test on the banks?
- This high market values situation isn't going to change until & unless the US gov stimulus stops and it begins to unwind/extricate itself from the financial markets. So, my question is, how will it happen and what will it look like when The Great Unwinding begins?
- Polar Capital soft closes £4.5bn Global Technology fund
- Unusual Option Activity for June 30th, 2020 - MT
- Any good Stock investment performance trackers?
- How were Lehman and Merrill Lynch able to leverage themselves to such a huge degree?
- Morgan Stanley says ad boycott is a buy opportunity for $FB, but less bullish on $TWTR
- What is the Future of Mortgage REITs?
- Insight on Landcadia ll (LCA) (merging with Golden Nugget Online Gambling)
- j2 Global report
- Some very basic macro facts (chart book resource)
- [MarketWatch] An Uber deal for Postmates has 'sound industrial logic' but might not help pricing dynamics, analyst says
- Why is the year 2030's S&P 500 dividend futures less than 3% higher than this years?
- Stocks, brokers, and entry in the Central Securities Depository (CSD)
- Advice understanding the bigger picture
- What do you think of my portfolio?
- Cel Sci Corp ($CVM) - Phase III Multikine results to treat cancer: Potentially Promising Data To Be Released Soon
- Whiting Petroleum
- Limelight Network (LLNW)
- 1 - Wednesday Morning Thoughts - Short, Medium, and Long-Term Focus Points
- What are my next steps to value a company?
- Leftover money. Where should I put it?
- Took a wild wild gamble.
Posted: 30 Jun 2020 02:54 PM PDT Dow Jones industrial average posted its strongest quarter since 1987 after surging 17.8% in the past three months. S&P 500 soared nearly 20% in the second quarter, its best quarterly gain since 1998 and finally, Nasdaq Composite rallied 30.6% in the second quarter, its best such period since 1999. https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/06/30/dow-stocks-track-best-quarter-decades/3284359001/ [link] [comments] |
Did anyone actually read the Dodd stress test on the banks? Posted: 30 Jun 2020 03:44 PM PDT Table 4.A. Capital ratios actual vs projected https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/2020-dfast-results-20200625.pdf Am i the only one thats noticing just how fucked GS and HSBC are under severe conditions in supplementary leverage ratio? Supplementary leverage ratio = regulatory capital / average assets+off balance sheet exposures. Isnt this even more whack now, vs 7 days ago, with the latest changes in HK? And they are going to both continue paying dividends??? [link] [comments] |
Posted: 30 Jun 2020 06:36 AM PDT What the title says. This high-market-valuation situation isn't going to change despite all the warning cries of value investors, until and unless the US gov stimulus stops and it begins to unwind/extricate itself from the financial markets & banks. So, my question is, how will that happen and what will The Great Unwinding look like when it does? • what is the effect on markets when bond/corporate bond-buying by the Fed ceases, and who loses and who benefits (this may involve tracking individual companies to short/buy based on their debt and credit facilities utilization)? I don't know about anyone else but being on top of these questions seem more relevant to my investment decisions for the rest of the summer & early Fall than the things that value investors typically look at. As far as coronavirus infection factors, I think every investor is looking at those, so I think analyzing the stimulus and how The Great Unwinding might go down is the only thing I feel I haven't gotten a handle on. I think it would be cool if reddit get good at analyzing this aspect of our current market situation. Any suggestions? [link] [comments] |
Polar Capital soft closes £4.5bn Global Technology fund Posted: 01 Jul 2020 01:27 AM PDT The fund, which has been co-run by Ben Rogoff and Nick Evans since 2006 and 2008 respectively, has increased in size by 256.4% over the last three years and by 51% over the last 12 months, according to data from FE fundinfo. Residing in the IA Technology & Communications sector, the Global Technology fund has returned 26.9% over the past six months alone, outperforming its average peer by 9.9 percentage points and putting it in third place in the 15-strong sector. Iain Evans, global head of distribution at Polar Capital, said: "Following a period of strong performance and steady net inflows, the Polar Capital Global Technology Fund is approaching £4.5bn in AUM. The demand for technology stocks has rocketed this year as investors see them as winners of the chaos caused by Covid-19, with wider social and business trends being accelerated. "The fund has become a leader in the specialist technology space and delivered some impressive performance. A soft close is pragmatic and sensible, while giving the fund the option reopen at a later date if suitable." [link] [comments] |
Unusual Option Activity for June 30th, 2020 - MT Posted: 30 Jun 2020 04:18 PM PDT Welcome to another Unusual Options Activity post. Why do DD when you can see what stocks people are heavily investing in? I post these daily. Context - The S&P 500 gained 1.5% today, while the NASDAQ gained 1.9%, which had a particularly strong performance by mega-cap and semiconductor stocks. All eleven sectors in the S&P 500 ended in positive territory. TSLA shares rose in anticipation of the companies Q2 delivery results this week. WFC said it expects to reduce its dividend in Q3. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Mnunchin testified before the House Financial Services Committee about the measures taken to support the economy. There wasn't much of a reaction in the market. Today's Option Activity Fast Facts - Sentiment – CBOE Put/Call Ratio - 0.90 VIX: (31.14, -0.64, -2.1%) Highest Multiple Over Daily Average - MT with 28x the ADV of 3260. There were 87511 calls and 3049 puts. Ticker with Most Contracts - WKHS with 222812 contracts traded today with an AVD of 28390. There were 166364 calls and 56448 puts. Largest Put / Call Ratio - FXB with a 143.9 P/C ratio. There were 4317 puts and 30 calls. Largest Call / Put Ratio - INVH with a 173.89 C/P ratio. There were 12172 calls and 70 puts. \Stocks must be >$6, Highest Multiple must have >1k ADV, Largest ratios must have an option volume >10k* MOMENTUM UNUSUAL OPTION ACTIVITY - First Momentum Stock Pick - Ticker : MT 10.73 0.16 ,( 1.51 %) Earnings : 2020-07-30 Name : ArcelorMittal SA Sector : Non-Energy Minerals Special Considerations :None Industry : Steel Option Information - Today's Option Volume: 90560 OptionOI: 134832 ADV: 3260 Multiple of ADV: 28 Total Calls: 87511 Total Puts: 3049 Calls at Ask: 56.8 % Calls at Bid: 32.3 % C/P Ratio: 28.7 Puts at Ask: 6.3 % Puts at Bid: 21.4 % P/C Ratio: 0.0 Notable Strikes : JUL 17 '20 had 74K VLM with 541 OI. DarkPool Prints : None News : There isn't any significant news I can find briefing or IB. The VLE industry report for Steel-producers came out at 12AM today. Unfortunately, the link on IB is a dead end. I did find a report from yesterday that Trump was considering enacting tariffs, specifically mentioning aluminum, but steel could also be included. My Impression : Between 9:30 AM and 11:00 AM, there was a lot of UOA on MT. There was not one unusually large trade, mostly ranging between 20-30k with two ~70k outliers. The Calls at the % and C/P ratio is pretty bullish. The multiple of ADV also gives hope the call buying may continue. Perhaps someone knows something about new tariffs about to be passed by the Trump Administration. I'll be watching the change in OI tomorrow morning to decide if I would like to participate in this trade. If it remains high, I will enter. [link] [comments] |
Any good Stock investment performance trackers? Posted: 30 Jun 2020 07:50 PM PDT Looking to log all my trades on a Excel template. I found a pretty good one but it only has a buy price and a current price to calculate overall gains. I'm looking for one that includes a section for if you sell off a number of shares but not all of them. Any suggestions? Thanks! [link] [comments] |
How were Lehman and Merrill Lynch able to leverage themselves to such a huge degree? Posted: 30 Jun 2020 06:32 PM PDT Before the GFC, Lehman was leveraged over 30 to 1 and Merrill was close behind at over 20 to 1. Were they thus not bound by risk or rule based margin requirements? I would assume not due to the fact that they were not investing in publicly traded securities for the most part. How did these banks get so much leverage? Was it mainly from issuing bonds/commercial paper/borrowing from other banks? Would these banks be subject to something akin to margin calls if the value of their holdings went down? [link] [comments] |
Morgan Stanley says ad boycott is a buy opportunity for $FB, but less bullish on $TWTR Posted: 30 Jun 2020 08:27 AM PDT Over the past week, big advertisers like Unilever and Starbucks said they will join an advertising boycott of select social media platforms including Facebook and Twitter in response to what they say is a failure of these platforms to stop the spread of hate. The boycotts vary in length from just the month of July to year end 2020. Morgan Stanley (MS) estimates ~250 advertisers have joined the boycott to date, but only 13 of the largest 100 advertisers in the US. MS says this is a good buying opportunity for FB because:
MS sees more risk at TWTR from the boycott vs. FB because: A) TWTR has a much lower total advertiser account (<1m advertisers vs. 8m at FB) which means more concentrated ad dollar base and more vulnerable if/when the largest advertisers pull back on ad spend. B) TWTR does not have the same scaled direct response offering that FB has, which means there would be fewer "always on" e-commerce and transaction-based ad dollars available to step in to bid around any weakness in the auction market. [link] [comments] |
What is the Future of Mortgage REITs? Posted: 30 Jun 2020 11:31 AM PDT I recently read an article regarding the plummeting of value of Mortgage REITs and am quite intruiged as to what there futures are. Please spark a conversation about the future of these and any possible alternatives. Thanks! [link] [comments] |
Insight on Landcadia ll (LCA) (merging with Golden Nugget Online Gambling) Posted: 01 Jul 2020 03:25 AM PDT Hi all, What are your opinions on this online gambling market and my take on it? My take, POSITIVE: LCA to reverse merge with Golden Nugget by the end of Q3. (Symbol to convert to GNOG after Q3) Already entered Purchase Agreement but needs approval of a majority of the outstanding shares of Landcadia ll. This was announced 29th June. Today is 1st July. Price already shot up to $16.33 from around $10. Will become the only 2nd pure publicly traded online casino company in US by end of Q3. Became profitable in 3 years in 2016. CEO Tilman Fertitta. Established Billionaire. Experienced. Emerging online market, still has a lot of room to grow in US and be legalised in many state Covid is actually helping this due to stay at home factor. Customers are more mature and have higher disposable income Comparing DKNG and GAN the valuation of LCA should be around $25. NEGATIVE: Competitiors. Mainly DraftKing. Law and regulation on gambling online may affect this long term. Social perception on online gambling is not seen as a positive view in today's society. Merger hasn't gone through, if it doesn't it will go back to $10. LCA did have debt. To be paid off once the merger goes through. There will be pump and dump. Tilman other blanc check company went down before (a food delivery company) due competiton like ubereats. This is purely a speculative stock. In a hot, volatile market and will gain a lot of traction no matter how investable it is. I may only put a small percentage of my portfolio in to this due to my individual risk factor. Has a good long term potential. Good for swing trade. Your thoughts?? [link] [comments] |
Posted: 30 Jun 2020 12:23 PM PDT Has anyone seen this report? Hindenburg put out this report on a company called j2 Global and some of this stuff is crazy. You can read the full report here : https://hindenburgresearch.com/j2-global/ Here is some of the stuff highlighted in the report 1) The CEO made $45M in 2018 more than the CEO of Microsoft or JP Morgan. But he isn't the only exec that got rich. Hindenburg also mentions how through a bunch of related party transactions, other executives got enriched too 2) Hindenburg says how they bought a company from the VP Corporate Development which was based out of resident for $20M. One month after this purchase, the VP bought a new mansion in Cali 3) The report also mentions a bunch of financial connections between the executives and so called "independent board members" I'm not really an expert in this stuff but if what's mentioned in the report is true, it's unbelievable to me that j2 can get away with these things [link] [comments] |
Some very basic macro facts (chart book resource) Posted: 30 Jun 2020 11:16 AM PDT Recently we've seen a lot more people being interested in what's going on with the economy and markets. Reading various articles (hopefully from good newspapers like the FT, WSJ, Economist, and even the Nytimes and not the likes of BusinessInsider or CNBC) is helpful but to really understand what's going on you need to look at the underlying data over time and put things into perspective. Now most non-professionals don't have Bloomberg or Haver or whatever and can't be bothered to go over to the Fed's excellent FRED database. One very good resource is Chart Book put out by CBPP. You can argue or disagree with their policy positions (they are generally regarded as being somewhat liberal), but their charts summarizing key data series, especially output and employment, are excellent. https://www.cbpp.org/research/economy/chart-book-tracking-the-post-great-recession-economy Just wanted to put this out there so that people can be more informed (and perhaps to keep the mods here, or at least /u/mastercookswag, from having an aneurysm from being perpetually outraged by the low level of econ 101 knowledge displayed here). [link] [comments] |
Posted: 30 Jun 2020 01:03 PM PDT Following a report that Uber Technologies Inc. UBER, +4.92% is considering acquiring food-delivery company Postmates for about $2.6 billion, Evercore ISI analyst Benjamin Black took a mixed view of the potential deal. "If the deal were to be approved by regulators, we think the Street would see it as value accretive given the sound industrial logic," he wrote in a note to clients, "though with three scaled players left in the market, it is debatable as to how impactful this transaction will be in expediting the timeline to rational pricing." Black sees opportunities for Uber Eats to recognize cost synergies if it follows through with a deal and said that the company could wind up with "a few fortress cities" in a narrower market for food-delivery operators. At the same time, he said that increased scale "could come at a cost" as Uber faces the possibility of "modest regulatory hurdles," a rival bid from a fellow industry player that could drive up the purchase price, or a rival bid from an outsider that could contribute to an even more competitive landscape. He has an outperform rating and $45 price target on Uber shares, which are up 4.6% in Tuesday trading. They've gained 31% over the past three months as the S&P 500 SPX, 1.54% has gained 18%. [link] [comments] |
Why is the year 2030's S&P 500 dividend futures less than 3% higher than this years? Posted: 30 Jun 2020 06:22 AM PDT Is there something I'm missing? If we assume a consistent dividend payout percent, this implies the market expects <3% total earnings growth (55.4 vs 56.95) for 10 years (< .3% annualized). Part of the reason the American stock market has higher P/E ratios and lower dividend payouts is due to more growth (in the past few years or so, dividends have increased > 10% year), and the market is factoring in this rate. If the market truly expects basically 0 earnings growth for ten years, shouldn't the S&P be trading at a much lower multiple, like the european markets (which have seen much lower earnings growth)? [link] [comments] |
Stocks, brokers, and entry in the Central Securities Depository (CSD) Posted: 01 Jul 2020 12:46 AM PDT I'm buying shares through a broker and I'm long term individual investor. Since I hold the shares I would like the applicable benefits - attend shareholders' meetings, shareholders' discounts, exclusive membership in loyalty programmes, etc. To be eligible my personal data have to be entered in the Central Securities Depository (CSD). Most brokers hold the securities in street name ie. in the CSD there is data of the broker or custodian, not the personal data of an individual buying the shares through the broker account. Not sure how to approach this efficiently... Should I request at the broker that they enter my personal data to the local CSD, do brokers usually offer such service? Should I register an account by the local CSD, claim shares, and make them verify everything with the broker? How do I verify that my personal data is entered in the CSD? Does it even make sense or is there a different way to achieve what I'm describing in the first paragraph? The questions apply to companies listed on stock exchanges in EU countries, UK, and Switzerland. [link] [comments] |
Advice understanding the bigger picture Posted: 01 Jul 2020 12:44 AM PDT hi everyone , i know this is a bit off topic but... I'm a 21 year old and my Passion is Business, i have been studying business for a around a year now ( stock market , drop shipping , a bit of economy , real estate, a bit of marketing ...) and my goal for the future is to become a entrepreneur. But i feel like i need to nail the basics in order to understand the bigger picture of this world ( economy , how everything works...) . Any advice what concepts i should learn first ? or wich books should i read? my guess is i should start with the economy? any good books for that? Thank you [link] [comments] |
What do you think of my portfolio? Posted: 01 Jul 2020 12:37 AM PDT 32 year old first time investor. I intend to Dollar Cost Average my savings each month. All investments are long-term. Please let me know your thoughts! 35% - VTI US Stocks 26% - IEFA Developed Markets Stocks 13% - BNDX Global Bonds 13% - BND US Bonds 8% - IEMG Emerging Markets Stocks 5% - VNQ US Real Estate [link] [comments] |
Posted: 30 Jun 2020 04:37 PM PDT Here are some links. Wanted to get some opinions on this one. My dad has been all in on this since $10. Hovering around $15. What does the Reddit community think? Would love to hear fact-based responses instead of opinions! [link] [comments] |
Posted: 30 Jun 2020 11:59 PM PDT Hey guys, I'm pretty new to stocks so I don't know a whole lot about them, that's why I bought $30 worth of Whiting Petroleum stocks. I've just read that the company is going to vote on handing over ownership to creditors and slashing their debt. Is this a sign that I should sell what I have invested right now? [link] [comments] |
Posted: 30 Jun 2020 11:56 PM PDT Hello everyone. If you pay attention to tech stocks recently, you probably notice the crazy surge of Fastly over the last 3-4 weeks. Fastly is a CDN tech company with market cap at $8 billion. Whether it is overpriced or not, CDN stocks gets lots of traction as people stay at home during this covid-19 season because people are basically staying at home watching tv shows, playing videos and what not. I recently discover another CDN company that have potential for growth. Yes, you guess it right! It's Limelight Network. The market cap is just shy at $800 million. I haven't seen any tech companies with this low in market cap, let alone the tech industry. I believe the price could be at least $15 with the traction from investors that love stay-at-home tech stock. I have created a spreadsheet to compare Fastly and Limelight Network in terms of products, customer base, financial and earning. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GhP7kJ4d5dM5m3j81_wfWbOYSX9ooBEeElClwQk4tqY/edit?usp=sharing Disclaimer: I hold shares of both LLNW and Fastly. [link] [comments] |
1 - Wednesday Morning Thoughts - Short, Medium, and Long-Term Focus Points Posted: 01 Jul 2020 03:08 AM PDT Below is a brief synopsis of the things I will be watching in the coming months and years to drive my investment decisions. I am not suggesting that these are the most important things to consider nor am I saying they are the only things that matter; this is just a list of things I believe will be significant market drivers going forward, and it will change over time. If this is well-received and helpful to the community, I may do this on a recurring basis. Short Term (3 months) 1) S&P 500 2) VIX 3) Economic Indicators 4) US Gov't policy response to COVID resurgence S&P 500 appears to be trading in a horizontal channel right now, with support at 3,000 and resistance at 3140. Trading volume remains at elevated relative to pre-COVID levels, but risk-off days have seen greater-than-average trading volumes during June and since this channel formed. Average trading volume during 2Q20 rally has been rather weak compared to the activity which took place during the sell-off; this is important because volume confirms the trend, and if volume is weak (relatively speaking), the rally might be weaker than anticipated or a reversal may be on the horizon. SPY P/C ratio sits at 1.407 as of this writing (2:55 AM, 7/1/2020), suggesting that investors are protecting themselves against potential downward swings in the future or that there is speculation of another sell-off. VIX sits at 30.43 as of this writing. This is an extremely elevated level relative to what is otherwise considered "normal" levels of volatility. Technicals suggest a range between 24 and 48 on VIX. These are quite critical technical indicators to watch: if VIX drops beneath 24, that would be a strong bullish indicator for risk-on sentiment and a sign that investors think the worst of the COVID crisis is behind us; if VIX breaks out above 48 and stays above that level, we may see a resurgence of aggressive risk-off sentiment. P/C ratio for VIX currently sits at 0.396, suggesting that many investors and traders are using VIX to take out a form of insurance against rising vol. This makes sense given the significant uncertainty regarding COVID, the upcoming elections, and near-term economic conditions that continue to remain murky. While SPY is not at levels registered by RSI as being "overbought" at the moment across any medium/long term timeframe, spiking volatility and poor readings from economic indicators could drive SPY into another risk-off mode. Economic indicators will be the primary gauge for the market for the next several weeks; barring any sweeping gov't intervention or policy responses to COVID or changes in trade policy, it is unlikely that the market will have material reactions to anything else outside of measures of economic recovery. The primary measure I will be watching is continuing unemployment claims – if PPP loans and fiscal policy intervention to protect American workers truly worked as well as intended, we should see an almost complete reversal in unemployment claims over the next 3 months as furloughed employees return to work and small businesses reopen their doors to customers. Such a reversal would likely be a huge driver for risk-on sentiment in markets, even though this should really be priced into the market at this point. While not an economic indicator, in conjunction with measures of manufacturing activity and consumer sentiment, watching raw material commodity prices will be an important measure of just how much activity is actually going on in terms of manufacturing production. Senate republicans have generally come out against further stimulus to Americans in response to COVID until "more data" is available that shows how effective the first stimulus was. Timing here is everything; if data shows more stimulus is needed, some damage to market sentiment might be done before this stimulus reaches people in need. It will also be interesting to see what kind of stimulus actually comes down the pipeline: there is serious concern about an eviction crisis that will ensue once accrued rent over 2Q20 that was deferred comes due, and a policy response may be able to prevent this from happening (even if only kicking the can down the road once again). Without getting political, simply put this is an important thing to watch that will have an immediate near-term market impact once it comes down the pipeline if it comes at all. Medium Term (6 months) 1) US election 2) US policy towards China 3) COVID cases & hospital crowding 4) Small Cap solvency 5) Large Cap technicals Not much really needs to be said about the election in the US in November that people aren't aware of – Biden = likely risk-off, Trump = likely risk-on. Markets like Trump more than the prospect of Biden and democratic involvement in market regulation. VIX has already priced in an increase in volatility during this period, which is why option contracts with October/November expiries have significant premiums. Even though this is straightforward and easy to understand, it is still critical to monitor if you will be involved in the markets during this period. Regardless of the election results, there is growing bipartisan support in the US for being "tough on China." While there is speculation as to what actions will be taken to reduce US dependency on China and the long-term knock-on effects of such actions, it would be wise to start positioning yourself defensively against any blowback from sanctions, policy shifts or growing tensions between the US and China now before liquidity becomes an enemy (in my opinion, of course). US behavior towards China could also impact the decisions of other world leaders, but I would personally not be surprised if we start seeing more independent decisions being made by the EU as a result of what has been called "weak leadership" in the US. Policies towards China globally are important to watch, and it would be wise to know what companies exist in your portfolio have exposure to China. The resurgence of COVID in the US is worrying, but apparently not too much to shake market optimism. It is possible to argue this is a result of the "Fed put", but regardless of why market optimism is drowning out this negative development, it is. The problem is not exactly the current resurgence, though; it is testing capacity for hospitals that will likely be strained across the country this fall when the flu season and COVID coincide. It only took a few weeks for Houston to reach capacity and need to install contingency overflow, which is a severe reminder that the virus can wreak havoc if left unchecked. Trump and senate republicans have openly come out against closing the economy again to stifle the virus, which could be a contributing factor to the market's unwillingness to allow this to negatively affect current valuation levels. While this will allow businesses to stay open while COVID remains a threat, consumer sentiment will likely be driven by fear more than anything else in the near term; it would be wise to keep consumer sentiment in mind as the COVID crisis continues and evolves. Small cap and small business solvency is a severe concern of economists and the Fed. Jerome Powell himself said that "the Fed can provide liquidity, but we cannot prevent insolvency." Many businesses that are forced to cap capacity at 50% cannot remain solvent over the long term, and we may begin to see the first wave of insolvency for these vulnerable companies prior to the election. I have not done enough research to pinpoint specifically which industries/companies are the most vulnerable (outside of the obvious, like hospitality and restaurants), but once I look into it I will try to provide more insights here. Monitoring daily trading volume, price action, trading channels and other technical indicators for large cap ETFs and indexes will be a fascinating endeavor for the coming months. Keeping the broader picture in mind, we've seen one of the most aggressive sell-offs, one of the most significant monetary/fiscal policy interventions, and one of the most profitable rallies the market has ever seen in a single quarter. This is a personal opinion, so it may be a point of contention for some: this rally from the March bottom has been entirely technically driven. There is noise driven by a spike in retail trader volume and there are some industry developments that affect price action, but it is difficult to argue that current price levels are reflective of fundamental valuations. Trading right now is fruitful because there is ample liquidity in most corners of the equity markets and technical traders have found that strategies they have not been able to successfully use in years are effective again due to hedge funds removing some of their algos and due to the inflow of "dumb money" from retail traders. Long Term (1+ years) 1) Inflation/deflation expectations 2) Infrastructure reorganization in US 3) Global geopolitical relationships 4) EM stability 5) Global policies influencing investment opportunities The current consensus regarding inflation amongst economists is generally as follows: in the near-term, deflation is more likely and a major threat; in the long-term, inflation is likely but not until several years down the road. Deflation and a strengthening dollar will become a real possibility if consumer confidence remains low and spending remains stifled due to COVID, but (in my opinion) the Fed will do whatever it takes to crush deflation. Inflation will be the eventual outcome of current and future policies used to stifle the recession in the near-term and drive growth in the long-term. I could discuss this particular topic for quite a while, but will leave it at this for simplicity purposes. If the US does truly work to gain economic independence of China, investment in infrastructure and production automation will be a key driver towards gaining this independence. Whether or not we see this in the next 12-18 months will likely be determined by how much economic damage is done by COVID-19. It is difficult to predict the scale and magnitude that this kind of change would manifest, as well as how fast we would see the changes actually materialize; however, I think it is not a question of if this change will take place, but rather when it finally comes down the pipeline. Even if production is only partially moved onshore and some production and aspects of supply chains remain on other continents, onshoring any aspects of supply chains and production would be a radical shift to the US which had forfeited its manufacturing economy to become an information economy. We are witnessing an odd shift in leadership and power around the world in real-time: the US is rapidly losing standing as a global leader, the EU has lost trust in China, Germany is looked to as a leader but has no defined successor to Angela Merkel after her protégé declined to be considered, tensions are rising in the middle east and between North and South Korea, and several other important things I'm sure are equally if not more important but I cannot recall at the moment. I personally will be watching how the following relationships evolve: US – EU, China – US, China – HK, and US – RU. I believe these relationships in particular could have the broadest impact on US markets and broader market sentiment. The stability of Emerging Markets (EMs) is not broadly covered, but it is where some of the best investment opportunities will arise. In a recent conversation with Jonathan Ferro, Mohammed El-Erian said that opportunities do/will exist in EM, but they are "highly selective." EMs have been broadly driven to a state of fragility due to the COVID crisis, so it would be very easy to make a poor investment decision in this area without proper due diligence. This is another area I intend to research in more depth to understand better myself, so I will not cover it in great detail here. This is something investors should follow, though, if they want to use EMs to diversify their portfolios. Climate change has come to the forefront lately as a critical issue, not just socially but also from an investment perspective. "Green" funds have seen consistent inflows even as actively managed funds have seen broad capital outflows, despite having rather high fees. The writing may very well be on the wall with this particular point: ESG is the way forward, with a particular focus on the "E" and "S", in light of recent events. A lot of this momentum was driven by global leaders banding together to establish goal and targets to reduce adverse impacts on the environment. In the coming months and years, I will be following the initiatives and policies enacted by government bodies closely as they relate to ESG, as I think government policies may become a leading indicator of what to expect from corporations going forward. Personal positions: • GLD • UGLD • NUGT • SPY (short) Thanks a lot for reading, I hope this provides some insight for readers and I welcome all feedback, criticism, and questions. Only way I can improve is if people challenge me so please share your thoughts. [link] [comments] |
What are my next steps to value a company? Posted: 30 Jun 2020 07:11 PM PDT Hi everyone, I'm very new to investing and wanted to get a better understanding of valuing company. I can read a financial statement pretty decently but my question is what are my next steps to actually valuing a company? For example, I see a companies EPS, net income, cash, etc are growing at a consistent rate. Are my next steps to conduct a discounted cash flow to value the company? Also - all I see when I read financial statements are large numbers, lets say sales of 1 billion growing at 5% every year. To me, it looks like a large number but do I have to take these numbers and compare it to other companies? How do I benchmark the net income, earnings that a company reports? Would it based on P/E ratio? Thank you all :) [link] [comments] |
Leftover money. Where should I put it? Posted: 30 Jun 2020 10:44 PM PDT Estimated Financial Position Age 21 Gross Salary: 66k Net salary: 48k Monthly take home: 4000 (not including health plan haven't started the job yet) Monthly expenses: 2100 1900 left over Investments: Roth: 500/mo (maxing) 401k: 6% match 1/1 —> roughly 4000/yr Savings: 200/mo Brokerage: 200/mo Risk: (term + disability) 49/mo 950 left over My advisor wants me to put 500/mo into a variable life insurance. Claims it will be taxed less when I take it out compared to long term cap gains tax in a brokerage. Also claims will be good if I want to take out a loan to buy property (which I want to rent out property in the future). What should I do with the leftover 950? Get closer to maxing 401k? VUL for tax evasion? More into brokerage? [link] [comments] |
Posted: 30 Jun 2020 08:18 PM PDT Took a gamble on ODP Took a gamble today just want to jump into a really different sector. Tomorrow is a new day for ODP should I sell my shares in the morning for a decent gain or hold? Any help or new info would be nice. Thanks as always. Any other stocks that will be dropping? Opinions lmk? This has always been one of the best groups for advice. [link] [comments] |
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