Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing |
- Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.
- Outcome: Anti-trust hearing
- Kodak Stock Surge Attracts 43,000 Robinhood Traders in 24 Hours
- "Strike it big stocks for the next decade", year 1 retrospective
- German Preliminary GDP shrinks 10.1% in Q2 vs. -9.0% expected
- How do the 'analysts' and 'market watchers' know exactly why the stock market is reacting the way are ?
- QCOM gives strong forecast and stock price jumps 12% aftermarket
- Tweets and Articles Sent Kodak Shares Surging Before Official Announcement - Kodak sent a news advisory to media outlets without indicating the information wasn’t intended to be released publicly
- What stocks should I buy if I value the right to attend shareholder meetings?
- Forex / binary trading scam?
- $AMZN - analysts expect Thursday's Q2 to beat on revenue, but less optimistic about margins
- $LMT
- What are you eyeing for your next move?
- The Strong Swiss Franc May Last Through the End of the Year
- Index ETF Stock Prices
- Is there a site that composes an index from provided asset weights?
- What would it take to cause a QQQ Collapse?
- is it a good time to invest into ETFs?
- What is Shopify’s most?
- Is it strange for a company to advertise its upcoming earnings call? What does that mean?
- What's you take on the JEDI contract?
- Read this before you invest into $KODK
- Is Interactive Investor a good Stocks and Shares ISA for a first time Investor?
- Pros and cons of investing in biotech companies
- Boeing ($BA) is making the EXACT same moves it did in May before running to $230 in June
| Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Posted: 29 Jul 2020 05:12 AM PDT If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions. If you are going to ask how to invest you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 29 Jul 2020 03:53 PM PDT Here is the final world incase if you haven't watched the whole three hours. Cicilline : Today we had the opportunity to hear from the decision-makers at four of the most powerful companies in the world. This hearing has made one fact clear to me: these companies as they exist today have monopoly power. Some need to be broken up, all need to be properly regulated and held accountable. This subcommittee will next publish a report on the findings of our investigation. We will propose solutions for the problems before us. This begs the question of whats next in Tech. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Kodak Stock Surge Attracts 43,000 Robinhood Traders in 24 Hours Posted: 29 Jul 2020 10:20 AM PDT Robinhood day traders swarmed to Eastman Kodak Co. shares as the stock rallied 1,600% this week. As of 11 a.m. in New York on Wednesday, 43,000 users of the investing app had added Kodak to their accounts in some form over the past 24 hours, according to website Robintrack.net, which aggregates data from the brokerage but isn't affiliated with it. The activity was 20 times more than the next most-popular stock, Actinium Pharmaceuticals Inc. Roughly 27,000 of the additions came over a four-hour span earlier Wednesday. The growing presence of retail investors has become a popular markets narrative this year with zero commission fees and the potential for entertainment in a world largely without sports or gambling luring a new crop of traders. The impact they have on prices is unclear, but similar buying sprees have erupted in pockets of the equity market, including electric-vehicle firms, shares of companies in bankruptcy protection and increasingly pharmaceutical stocks. Earlier this month, Tesla Inc. attracted Robinhood traders at a pace of 10,000 an hour. Kodak -- famous for its pioneering work in film photography -- surged 331% to $34.24 as of 11:34 a.m in New York. The rally began after it won a government loan to assist in the production of a coronavirus treatment. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| "Strike it big stocks for the next decade", year 1 retrospective Posted: 30 Jul 2020 12:25 AM PDT A year ago I wrote a list of 20 stocks I believed were high-risk/high-reward investments into new technology for the future. I figured it would be interesting to actually track their development, so here's where we stand now:
Average return: 55% My comments: On the other hand the "new tech" stocks moved largerly side-ways with two outliers - HXL running into Covid19 trouble as an aerospace supplier and VRTX posting impressive earnings and continuing to execute well on their plan. All in all the valuations of these companies remained sensible in contrast to the "efficient stocks". While these should be the higher risk stocks, they seem now like a more reasonable investment. Let's see what happens in one year! [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| German Preliminary GDP shrinks 10.1% in Q2 vs. -9.0% expected Posted: 30 Jul 2020 01:20 AM PDT High level info:
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| Posted: 29 Jul 2020 07:25 AM PDT whenever there's a surge or plunge in the stock market, they seem to know the exact reason why that happened. If Stocks are rising I bet there's going to be a headline 'in hopes of vaccine' or something like that. the very next day if the stock plunges, the headlines will read 'plunges because of virus spread and uncertainty in outlook'. What is this 'market' that seems to react to every freaking thing every minute ? Do they come up with a reason after a surge/plunge just to make a news article out of it? Do they interview traders every day to know what their 'sentiment' is that particular day? Do any of these traders actually care about anything other than making money? This stock market universe is ridiculous and complex , I just don't get it. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| QCOM gives strong forecast and stock price jumps 12% aftermarket Posted: 29 Jul 2020 01:34 PM PDT
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/qualcomm-gives-strong-forecast-announces-200940666.html
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| Posted: 29 Jul 2020 02:38 PM PDT
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| What stocks should I buy if I value the right to attend shareholder meetings? Posted: 30 Jul 2020 01:19 AM PDT What stocks should I buy if I value the right to attend shareholder meetings? For example, I've heard that Google shareholder meetings had become somewhat well known for having free food and otherwise being cool and interesting. I have heard that Berkshire Hathaway has pretty epic shareholder meetings, but that's unfortunately a bit beyond my budget. It would also be cool to own stocks with shareholder meetings in a variety of cities. Is there a map of meeting locations? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 29 Jul 2020 10:29 PM PDT Hello all. I am the father of a 17 yo son and he has gotten sucked into the world of forex and binary trading. Now as someone who primarily invests in mutual finds and occasional stocks this did not sit well with me based on the research I have done on this. It seems like a classic scam. But he considers me a boomer I guess and proceeded ahead without me with an initial $500. The web site he went to is tradem-experts.com and the site has only been around for 4 months. It looks slick but it does not feel right to me. Since he is 17 he had to fund this with Apple iTunes cards from what I found out and get a bit coin wallet, etc. Now he throws in my face how his $500 is now worth $1500 in a week investing in BTC. But now he received an email (in relatively broken English) that his trading signal is low and they need another $900 to get his trading up to optional levels. This seems like a classic scam to me. I am will to let me learn a lesson here and get scammed. He does not listen to me. What does everyone else think here? I know this type of trading is gambling but I want to show him other stories of people getting scammed. Has anyone heard of tradem-experts.com.? They some CEO on the website named Harrison jack. I find nothing on him. Thanks [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| $AMZN - analysts expect Thursday's Q2 to beat on revenue, but less optimistic about margins Posted: 29 Jul 2020 07:19 AM PDT Goldman: "We expect Amazon to report results well above consensus expectations on revenue and profitability (Exhibit 1), given stronger than expected performance across all businesses, particularly NA Retail. We expect 3Q guidance to fall above consensus on a revenue basis and inline/below on operating income as the company accelerates infrastructure investments to accommodate sustained growth in customer demand and avoid showing outsized profitability during the current crisis. The net increase in demand across all segments of Amazon's business and Amazon's ability to meet the challenges of this demand is, we believe, serving to steepen the curve of its long term growth rate, drive incremental profitability, and further deepen its competitive moats. While the stock has outperformed the majority of Internet significantly YTD, we believe the market continues to underestimate the long-term value of the Amazon platform as the leader in both the movement of retail online and compute into the cloud, the realization of which is being accelerated by the current crisis. Therefore, we continue to believe Amazon represents the best risk/reward in the Internet sector and remain Buy-rated (CL) with a $3,800 12-month price target." Jefferies: "Expectations are high heading into Q2 results on Thursday, w/ AMZN up 65% YTD and 34% since Q1. We expect AMZN to deliver, but prefer to focus on how recent changes in consumer behavior provide attractive long-term opportunities given most of the nearterm acceleration is priced in. We would also point to attractive valuation despite the YTD move, w/ current 28x NTM EV/EBITDA standing roughly in-line w/ 2017-18 despite a larger mix of high margin businesses." Barclays: "Buyside expectations for Retail revenue growth ex-FX are likely in the range of +40% Y/Y (vs. consensus +29%) and AWS "low 30%'s" Y/Y (vs. consensus +32%), and we expect largely in-line results. We also expect guidance to reflect some normalization in growth in late 3Q, similar to what the company guided 90 days ago, but also factoring in the shift in Prime Day to 4Q. There are few companies better positioned for the current environment than Amazon. Prime members rely on Amazon more than ever for essential and discretionary purchases, and few retailers have earned the trust and reliability that Amazon enjoys. Disruption with global supply chains, store closures, and Covid-fear among consumers has created a perfect storm whereby there seem to be few places other than Amazon where one can receive goods reliably and on time across 100m+ SKUs. The question we ask ourselves constantly is: how much longer can this dynamic play out, and what happens when growth trends normalize? June came and went without much deceleration for Amazon or ecommerce as a whole, despite economies re-opening (behavior appears to have changed semi-permanently in terms of the shift away from brick-and-mortar). At 20x 2021 EBITDA, the same level we were at before Covid, the risk/reward remains attractive." Telsey: " We are raising our sales forecast for 2Q20 (up ~1% to ~29% to $81.6B) and 2020 (up ~1% to ~25% to $349.5B), given our view that Amazon has been seeing strong demand of both essentials and discretionary products. The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the shift to online, which combined with US Government stimulus checks, temporary retail store closures, and ongoing retail consolidation, should generate solid results. In addition, the usage of advertising, music, movies, and gaming subscriptions is on the rise. Amazon Web Services (AWS) also should see sales accelerate, given the shift to cloud computing and remote offices/classrooms. That said, we are lowering our 2Q20 and 2020 profit forecasts due to incremental costs (including over $4B in 2020) related to COVID-19—unfavorable product mix, productivity headwinds from social distancing, investment in personal protective equipment, and higher wages and logistic costs, including faster delivery." Canaccord Genuity: " We forecast ~27% y/y total revenue growth for Amazon in Q2 as the company likely saw accelerating growth for its online stores as a result of heightened eCommerce demand during the pandemic. We expect operating margin to be around breakeven, as management plans to reinvest virtually all of its Q2 operating profit into COVID-19-related safety initiatives and to ensure fulfillment efficiency. Amazon will also likely provide an update on recent trends for AWS." [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 29 Jul 2020 12:05 PM PDT I performed a DCF on LMT and I can't seem to find what I am missing that the market is discounting the price so much. My revenue estimates were beyond conservative, with a -10% growth rate from 2023-2028 (2 terms) just in case the democratic party steps in and gradually decreases defense spending ( I chose 2023 as LMT has 150.3 B in backlogs currently and would go through that backlog at the current rate in 2023). Even then the model shows an intrinsic value of $469.25 per share. Other factors contributing to my model
Would appreciate any input if I am missing any qualitative factors, also would appreciate any input on my model linked below. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QNfHfYfo4noLkdEW7ivypf06y9tOeIZp60Sl6GoXHWg/edit?usp=sharing *Edit: thank you guys for your responses, I'm working on a lot of problems pointed out in the comments so ignore this post for now, will be back with updates [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| What are you eyeing for your next move? Posted: 30 Jul 2020 03:54 AM PDT I got into: NIO at 1.77 (now 12.70; 617%), DNKN at 65.20 (now 71.68; 10%), OSTK at 4.25 (now 60.74; 1,329%), and DOCU at 37.51 (now 209.15; 458%). Ref: https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/a0xddl/call_me_crazy/ I am now looking for a new set of spec stocks. What are you guys currently following? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The Strong Swiss Franc May Last Through the End of the Year Posted: 30 Jul 2020 12:18 AM PDT With a glance at July, it is found that some currencies of major industrial countries, which plummeted in the first half of 2020, have rallied in different degrees. Among them, both EUR and AUD have turned their six-month negative inflation into positive one. The main reason is the boom in global stock markets arising from unprecedented quantitative easing implemented by central banks worldwide since March. This forces USD, a currency tending opposite against U.S. stocks, to constantly decline, providing chances for weak currencies to rebound at different levels. From this January till now, only CHF and JPY crowned winners for the whole journey. As of July 27, SEK has become the best performer, with an increase of 5.9%; followed by CHF, rising by 5.1%; while JPY has ranked sixth, with a gain of 2.3%. Under the premise that USD will stay weak in the short term, I will expect a strong CHF with constant buoyancy in the future forex market. CHF is the most stable one for me because there are latent risks in EUR, GBP and the commodity currencies of AUD, NZD and CAD . USD and JPY can play the role of safe haven only when stock markets suffer from sharp loss. Currently, stock markets stay uptrend despite of the global tension. Thus, investments may flow from U.S. to Switzerland for safe haven, encouraging more CHF purchases. In view of this, CHF is possible to achieve the 2015 high of 0.9071 before adjustment. But even it is adjusted, I hold that CHF will keep climbing to another high of 0.8700 in the second half of the year. Finally, we should pay attention to DXY as well. On the one hand, it has been in highly oversold territory; on the other hand, it may see a retaliatory rebound if the risk hedging of USD takes effect again due to the slump in global stock markets arising from tension. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 29 Jul 2020 11:44 PM PDT Hi r/investing, Just started my investing journey and have a question on how stock prices of ETFs tracking indexes work. Take SPY for example, which is tracking the S&P 500, which was at $325.12 at yesterday's close:
What I'm confused about is the following scenario: say the S&P 500 remains flat for the day, but millions of people suddenly buy SPY in volumes never before seen. Market dynamics dictate that SPY would then rise in price drastically, but how would this work if it's tied to the S&P 500 and that index did not budge in value on the same day? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Is there a site that composes an index from provided asset weights? Posted: 30 Jul 2020 01:45 AM PDT Hello, I want to graph stock price returns from certain sub-sectors to see their performance. However, there are no indices that replicate my selected stocks. I could do this by hand, but I think that it would save me some time (now and in the future) if there was an automatic site that would graph returns after I provide the ticker and weight that I would like to give to that certain stock. Thank you in advance! [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| What would it take to cause a QQQ Collapse? Posted: 29 Jul 2020 10:59 AM PDT Just what the question says. I think we have moved past issues that caused the dotcom bubble (perhaps tech is overvalued overall but not to the same extent) so I am genuinely curious about what you think could happen where investors en mass abandon the sector, and where they would move their money to? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| is it a good time to invest into ETFs? Posted: 29 Jul 2020 10:46 PM PDT Hello, I'm completely new to the investing world but I'm quite excited to learn more. I'm a young college student and I'd like to invest into ETFs but I'm nervous to commit because I have no experience with investing. I would like to invest roughly $3000 - $5000 into a safe ETF and hold it long-term (10+ years). Any recommendations into what ETFs I should invest in and where to start? Thanks. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 29 Jul 2020 06:57 AM PDT Edit: title should be "moat" Anyone own shop? I don't get how this stock trades at 70x sales. It just blew away earnings (100% rev yoy) and is again up huge. Stock has run from 300+ to 1100+ since March. But this platform is just a website builder with a shopping cart. Small merchants sign up for a monthly sub fee and use their website template to build their online store. How is this different from wix or any other website builder? If Wordpress adds a shopping cart, it would compete against shop. An engineer could literally develop a competing platform in a week. So where's the moat? What's to stop Amzn from offering a similar service for free? FB has already launched a shop feature. Head scratcher on this stock. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Is it strange for a company to advertise its upcoming earnings call? What does that mean? Posted: 29 Jul 2020 06:31 PM PDT I came across a company called Mohawk Group (MWK) that seems to me to be in bad shape. I was thinking hard about shorting it before tomorrow's earnings came out (which I suspect to be lackluster.) But then this advertisement inviting me to listen in on their earnings call popped up on my Facebook feed and totally threw me for a loop. I've never seen this before, and I can't figure out why they would do this. Is this an indication that they are going to report good earnings? Is this just part of an ongoing marketing campaign to pump up their own stock? What's going on here? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| What's you take on the JEDI contract? Posted: 30 Jul 2020 04:05 AM PDT As we might know there was a belief that the DoD had tailor made the contract for Amazon, then it was awarded to Microsoft in what Amazon claims was a direct result of Donald Trump considering Jef Bezos his political enemy. Now the decision went to court and the DoD is expanding it's definitions. What do you think is going to be the result? I thought Amazon would get it in August and now I don't see a good resolution either way. Thoughts? With the current rallies, and general volatility, the markets are going to go into overdrive when the ruling comes out. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Read this before you invest into $KODK Posted: 29 Jul 2020 07:16 PM PDT $KODK's: Dilution Anyone? Quoted from the source below: "On an as-converted basis, the Convertible Notes will represent approximately 31,497,850 shares of Common Stock, or 42.28% of the shares of Common Stock outstanding after giving effect to the issuance and conversion." [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Is Interactive Investor a good Stocks and Shares ISA for a first time Investor? Posted: 30 Jul 2020 03:55 AM PDT Hi everyone. It's my first time looking to invest and I'm looking at a stocks and shares ISA for my platform. I also want to be able to choose the stocks I invest in rather than have them chosen for me as I already have some ideas. Is this Isa worth it for me in my position? Is the flat £10 per month fee a good deal? Seems a bit annoying to pay a monthly fee when the whole point is to grow my money but hopefully the gains will be worth it. Any other ideas for options given my situation? Thanks a lot for any advice! [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Pros and cons of investing in biotech companies Posted: 29 Jul 2020 08:21 PM PDT So, I am sure that there are pros and cons to investing in any business sectors, but what are some of the main ones you'd say apply for biotech companies that produce drugs? One obvious con I can think of is that a lot of their assets are intangibles such as patents and may even become useless when the patent expires. What are some other dangers that could affect the price of the stock negatively, that are solely based on the intrinsic behavior of the company/ biotech company's business model (not due to outside forces)? Theoretically if I found a company with great fundamentals (meaning it's earnings are stable and growing, margins look good, low debt, etc.), what else should I look out for, in the biotech industry company valuation. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Boeing ($BA) is making the EXACT same moves it did in May before running to $230 in June Posted: 29 Jul 2020 01:54 PM PDT As most of you probably know, Boeing reported abysmal Q2 earnings today. The market was expecting -$2.9 per share, and BA reported -$4.9 per share. They delayed their 777 dreamliner a year, and they said they don't expect to make 737 Max deliveries until Q4. They also said they don't expect to have positive cash flow till early 2021. Time to jump ship right?? The vaccine won't come until late fall, which is when the Max is also supposed to start being delivered. Maybe you could make more money by playing different stocks for the time being, and reinvest later if BA is going to drop or trade sideways. Well, maybe not. The consensus target is still $220. This may change in the coming weeks as Analysts weigh in on the earnings, the only one to weigh in so far is Credit Suisse (Robert Spingarn) , who maintained their previous grade and target. So with Boeing breaking the supports around $170 and $168 today, is there any technical basis for the stock being able to still reach $220 relatively soon? The answer is yes, and it has everything to do with the previous move in May. You'd have to be blind to not be able to see the similarities between the consolidation this summer, and what happened in the Spring. Traders have been talking about this consolidation pattern and its similarities to what happened to BA in May, before the June spike, for the past month. Many people were betting on Q2 Earnings to be the catalyst that began the next run. However as I said, the earnings were abysmal, and the stock dropped to $162.25 today, breaking the established supports. So there is no question that it's probably on its way to $150 or lower right? Well, of course this is possible, but it isn't yet guaranteed. Why? Because this EXACT scenario happened in May before the run up to the $230 spike. Let's re-examine what happened with the last consolidation pattern stemming from the March bounce. In short the peak of the March bounce occurred on the 26th, it fell to a low on April 2nd, and then consolidated until May 15th (Friday) before starting the run-up to the June spike the following Monday:
So the stock consolidated and formed a pretty strong support around $120, which would later be broken.... on May 14th (aside from a very small and brief dip to $119.33 on the 13th). On May 14th it took a nosedive to $113.89 breaking all the supports created during the consolidation. It initially looked like the stock had taken a turn for the worst and it might head back to $90. However it recovered from the low that same day and traded sideways until the weekend. The next Monday, it began its run up to $135, then $150, then $230 by June 8th. Why does this matter? Let's see what happened to BA over the summer:
It ran up through the end of May, and then spiked the first week of June, peaking at $234.20. It then began it's initial fall, closing at 170.01 on June 26th before beginning the same triangular consolidation pattern until the stock fell to $162.25 today, again breaking the supports formed during consolidation. But then... it began recovering today, Just like it did on May 14th. The only difference is that it rebounded too much into close on the 14th and had a correction on May 15th to bring it closer to the support level. On a day where earnings are Apocalypic, you would not expect Boeing to recover so strongly in areas where no previous support had formed. It's acting very much like it did in mid May. Lets compare percentages with the consolidation pattern. Specifically, I'll be comparing the lows of the consolidation, and how much the stock can break those supports and still recover. Consolidation 1
*Using May 15th since that is the last red day before the run up Consolidation 2
So this drop is less severe so far than the drop that occurred May 14th. And by all expectations, the news is much, much worse. What happened May 14th to cause the drop? Delta announced that it would retire all 777's by the end of 2020 and there was fear that they would be replaced by Airbus instead. What happened today? One of the worst earnings in Boeing history and an expected continuation of cash burn until early 2021. By all accounts, we should have dropped below $162 today. And if you just judge price action based on news alone, we probably should have fallen closer to $150. So why didn't the stock fall further? I believe that these terrible earnings were mostly expected. We have been expecting that Boeing will not deliver many Max's till Q4 for while now. We also have not expected positive cash flow until 2021 or even 2022. Boeing coming out and confirming that they will deliver Max's in Q4 and that they expect to be reporting positive earnings in early 2021 was actually positive news, and confirmed what most people have been expecting for a while now. ConclusionI am definitely not trying to say that boeing will shoot up to $230 in a couple weeks. What I am saying is that, as of today, the setup looks identical so there should be a technical basis for the stock recovering into the Summer's end. I would recommend keep an eye on the stock the next couple days and see how it closes out the week. If it doesn't continue to fall, I'd expect that we start a slow recover next week (especially with so many options expiring this week) And due to the recent negative outlook, options looking forward (out of the money) are near they're bottom. So if you believe in BA and the vaccines, and that we will begin global recovery this fall. Now would be a good time to hop into the stock TL;DRWatch Boeing closely, the next few days could signify that BA is at its bottom [link] [comments]  |
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