U.S. companies issue shares at fastest rate ever, selling the rally Investing |
- U.S. companies issue shares at fastest rate ever, selling the rally
- [The Guardians] Coronavirus will haunt US economy for a decade and wipe out $8tn, says CBO
- How many here likes to buy nice round numbers when they buy stocks?
- People seem to have forgotten the saying "To correctly time the market, you have to be right twice."
- WSJ: Gun Stocks Surge Past Broader Market
- Rural real estate seems like a strong buy right now....
- Where do you see bitcoin in 10 years?
- Home Depot's Liabilities are 106% of Assets
- What are causes/reasons for a Stock Split to happen, and when is it a good/bad thing?
- S&P 500 >3,000 - did the Bears miss a buying opportunity of a life time?
- The current obsession around FOREX for amateurs?
- The Worst Deal Ever: The Inside Story Of The Decision By StubHub's Cofounder To Buy His Company Back
- Animation of S&P 500 Returns by Sector in 2020
- What happens if we see a surge of corporate defaults?
- Your opinion on GLD now
- DD: Berkshire is trading at 450B valuation but has intrinsic value of at least 570B
- What is your interval for dollar-cost averaging?
- Schwab Stock slices now live on iphone/ipad
- Safe place to make a little interest for short term (1-3 years)
- Who buys ZM at P/E 2,280?
- Rally leaves Jeremy Grantham’s GMO nervous
- Oil prices hold ground ahead of OPEC+ meeting on extended output cuts
- Algorithm for Minimizing Leftover Cash
- Pay down mortgage or IRA?
- Website to find reliable pre-market news?
| U.S. companies issue shares at fastest rate ever, selling the rally Posted: 01 Jun 2020 07:24 PM PDT | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| [The Guardians] Coronavirus will haunt US economy for a decade and wipe out $8tn, says CBO Posted: 01 Jun 2020 07:55 PM PDT | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| How many here likes to buy nice round numbers when they buy stocks? Posted: 01 Jun 2020 07:50 AM PDT I always tend to buy round numbers when investing. So if say that I've settled on a dollar amount to invest in a stock and that turns out to only buy 98 shares then I tend to go over "budget" and buy a round 100 instead. Same in the other direction too. Is this a common thing, because I always see essentially only round numbers being bought and sold in the transaction list. Edit: This is a weird post to attract so much interest [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| People seem to have forgotten the saying "To correctly time the market, you have to be right twice." Posted: 01 Jun 2020 11:55 AM PDT If you sell your holdings to buy back in at a lower level, you have to be right twice. You have to be right about that decision to sell and your future decision to buy back in. People will say "you just need to buy back in at a lower cost." But it's really not that simple. Unless the market plays out to your plan perfectly, you will always be at the mercy of human psychology and will likely lose money in the long run. Take a look at threads when SPY was at 290. People were proudly saying left and right that they have liquidated their portfolio and will buy back in when the market seems less irrational.. And that they are ok with missing out future gains. What do you think those people are doing right now? I bet you that 50% of them have already bought back in at the higher price because their mind was yelling "if you dont get in now, you will never get back in." The other 50% are watching the market very closely and banging their desk every time SPY ticks upwards.. And let's say... They were right! SPY will dip back to 250. The remaiming 50% of people I talked about were technically right about their decision to sell. But the drop won't happen overnight. It will be a multiple days or weeks process. 15% of people will actually buy back in when SPY retreats to 290 and lingers there for a few days... They will be mentally scarred after seeing SPY shoot above 300 and their only wish is to get back into the market and get rid of this stress. So at any opportunity they see, they will jump back in despite their original cost being 270. The remaining 35% people will now breathe a sigh of relief as they watch SPY dip below their original selling price of 270.. When SPY hits 260, another 10% of people will buy back in.. All that stress and risk of forever being out of the market all for a 4% gain.. When SPY hits 250, another 10% of people will buy back in. Ok good job your timing paid off. But how about the remaining 15%? They were waiting for SPY to hit 240... But lets say 250 was the new bottom and SPY sloely climbs back up. Half of those people (7.5%) will watch the market go back up to 280 and buy back in after giving up. The other half will never buy back in because psychology wont allow them. These are the scenarios that are likely to happen when you try to time the market. I say this as someone who has experienced all of the aboove during my attempt at timing the market. If your time period is 10+ years, then the risk of selling to buy back in at a lower price is far greater than the 10% gain you might achieve by doing so... Even if the market crashes 30% again, the average investor is better off just ignoring the noise and staying in the game to guarantee that they can leap the long-term benefit of investing... Because thats where the magic really happens. 15 years from now it wont matter much if you made your initial purchase of SPY at 300 vs. 270. But what will matter is if you somehow got burned at trying to time the market and never got back in... [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| WSJ: Gun Stocks Surge Past Broader Market Posted: 02 Jun 2020 04:04 AM PDT Gun stocks have skyrocketed as protests and riots continue throughout the United States following the death of George Floyd. The soaring stocks came while rioters set cars ablaze, smashed property and looted businesses across the country as activists protested the death of Floyd, a black man who died after a Minneapolis police officer knelt on his neck for several minutes, video of the incident showed. Derek Chauvin, the officer, has been fired and arrested on third-degree murder and second-degree manslaughter charges. A number of ammunition and gun makers were trading sharply higher after the weekend of nationwide riots, including Sturm, Ruger & Co., ammunition maker Vista Outdoor, Gunmakers American Outdoor Brands and the taser stun gun maker Axon Enterprise, Fox Business reported. (RELATED: Kansas City Police Say Bricks Staged Near Protests Were 'To Be Used During A Riot') Sturm, Ruger & Co. increased 9.5% to $68.24, while Smith & Wesson Brands Inc. increased 16% to $13.66, according to The Wall Street Journal. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rural real estate seems like a strong buy right now.... Posted: 01 Jun 2020 04:28 PM PDT After decades of urban home prices rising could that trend be ready for a reversal? We have many factors at play here. Cities getting hit hard by Covid, cities being looted and burned by rioters, more people working remotely, etc... I am thinking it might be time to look for land out in the country. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Where do you see bitcoin in 10 years? Posted: 01 Jun 2020 04:54 AM PDT Bitcoin is 11 years old now, and has had weathered the coronavirus crash with a v-shape recovery. Bitcoin consumes more electricity per year than the whole country of Switzerland. The number of hardcore fans is growing year by year, but the price has been very volatile and bearish for the last 3 years. Bitcoin hasn't really caught on as a payment system, as it's rare to find an online retailer to accept bitcoin. Most bitcoin users use it as a store of value, much like a savings account that might increase in value. It is, however, increasingly becoming more accepted as an investment class by the financial elite. So I guess I ask, where do you see bitcoin going in the next 10 years? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Home Depot's Liabilities are 106% of Assets Posted: 01 Jun 2020 09:47 AM PDT Their revenue has grown consistently since 2010, along with their income, and Cash from Operations, and I realize they have high inventory turnover. They seem to have paid a low interest rate (~3%) but their debt-to-asset ratio has climbed a lot in the last few years. What are the implications? Shouldn't this be cause for concern? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| What are causes/reasons for a Stock Split to happen, and when is it a good/bad thing? Posted: 01 Jun 2020 04:54 PM PDT Over time for a growing company, I can see a single stock potentially becoming "too big" for a company, if that's the right way to say it. For the people that make that decision, under what conditions would they consider splitting their stocks, and does the chosen fraction hold much meaning (i.e. halving a stock value and doubling everyone's holdings vs. 1/3 of previous stock value and tripling vs. 1/4 value and 4x holdings, etc.)? For the biggest companies like Amazon or Google whose stock values are in the 4-digits, what would make them not want to split their stocks? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| S&P 500 >3,000 - did the Bears miss a buying opportunity of a life time? Posted: 01 Jun 2020 09:35 AM PDT To the passive Bear investors still hands full of cash. Which levels are you waiting for before buying? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The current obsession around FOREX for amateurs? Posted: 01 Jun 2020 05:21 PM PDT I am a proponent of jack bogles investing strategy. So don't really buy into active trading etc. Especially for the newbie. But recently there seems to be so many forex instagram accounts, MLM schemes and Courses that are everywhere? Can anyone explain where this hype came from? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The Worst Deal Ever: The Inside Story Of The Decision By StubHub's Cofounder To Buy His Company Back Posted: 02 Jun 2020 03:52 AM PDT | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Animation of S&P 500 Returns by Sector in 2020 Posted: 01 Jun 2020 11:37 AM PDT Animated visualization of how the S&P 500 companies have been moving in 2020: [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| What happens if we see a surge of corporate defaults? Posted: 01 Jun 2020 05:47 PM PDT I think we can all say this time is unprecedented with the Fed buying corporate bonds through open market and ETFs. This was a plan to keep the bond world chugging along, but what happens when if we see defaults happen? If the fed is holding the bag on these bonds, what happens when these corporations can't service their bonds? It's not like the Fed will let them slide when it's time for debt servicing. Please let me know what I'm missing. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 02 Jun 2020 12:56 AM PDT Hi. What do you think of entering GLD now? I must admit I am not very knowledgeable about what drives gold prices, but it seems like a relatively safe place to put some saving into considering unemployment, economy and recent riots. What is the main factor driving gold prices? What do you think of such investment right now? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| DD: Berkshire is trading at 450B valuation but has intrinsic value of at least 570B Posted: 01 Jun 2020 11:21 AM PDT This is just a back of the envelope calculation. Not all Berkshire companies are included so this should really be a lower bound of the intrinsic value of Berkshire
Sources are https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_assets_owned_by_Berkshire_Hathaway and https://www.cnbc.com/berkshire-hathaway-portfolio/ This is a conservative estimate of the value. There are some big companies that are left out. There is also some small debt that is left out but in truth the company could take on an additional 100B loan if it really wanted - that would only be 50% leverage on their stock portfolio not even counting their other assets that they can lend against. Even if you discount the value of the cash position with 25% (because it is just sitting there doing nothing) then Berkshire is very much undervalued. If you discount the entire 130B cash position then Berkshire is trading at fair value. Some people might note that over the last 1,5,10 or whatever many years Berkshire has (slightly) lagged the S&P500. Well no shit if it is only trading at less than 80% of the intrinsic value then yes it has lagged. But if it were trading for its true value it would have clearly beat the S&P500. The fact that it has not beat the S&P500 because it is trading below what it is worth is what makes this an opportunity because this gap will close. I know that many here will say that the stock is going to tank once Warren dies but really I think that would be good for Berkshire. It is trading at a discount in part because Warren has been very busy doing nothing for many years now. Once he dies that cash is more likely to be used than it is now, either for buybacks or for acquisitions, or even for buying SPY. So many people have said they are waiting for Berkshire to go down once he dies and that will be when they buy in. I think there won't be that opportunity. This thing is so much undervalued already and lots of investors are ready to go once he passes away. Sure it could be another decade before he gives up control over Berkshire but there will be something done with the cash pile before then. Either they buy back stock, buy that elephant, or they buy SPY. Until then it is a well diversified company. The only thing wrong with Berkshire is they are underleveraged. Not the worst mistake to make. Some people on here already know some or all of this, like u/100_PERCENT_BRKB, but for the rest I think this is a great opportunity to outperform the S&P500 over the next 1 to 5 years. If you still don't think so please explain. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| What is your interval for dollar-cost averaging? Posted: 01 Jun 2020 06:58 PM PDT Currently investing 1k every month on the first of the month. Is this suitable, or should I switch to a 2-week interval? Wondering what you guys are currently doing, and if anyone has an opinion on if there's a best method. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Schwab Stock slices now live on iphone/ipad Posted: 01 Jun 2020 07:04 PM PDT | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Safe place to make a little interest for short term (1-3 years) Posted: 02 Jun 2020 02:13 AM PDT Hi, I've got some cash (>$10k) that just came in that I need to park for my kids' college needs, which will start in 1 year from now and continue on for 5-6 years. I don't have access to money market / CDs with my current banks (complicated expat situation) and but can transfer it to a brokerage. I would just like to get a little bit of gain to keep up with inflation. I was thinking about short term bond funds like SLQD. My main concern is I am bearish on the USA market for 2020 and believe there will be another big drop after the impact on COVID-19 is seen in Q2 results. So I'm concerned about how the bond funds could drop and if they would recover in time. I see SLQD took a big hit in March but recovered and is even higher now.. Any thoughts about finding a safe home in a brokerage account for a couple years that is better than cash? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 01 Jun 2020 10:07 AM PDT Earnings are tomorrow, and there's hype about it. It might or might not beat the estimate, but even if it does - so what? What does it change if the earnings are 0.09 or 0.12$? - It's already highly overvalued. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rally leaves Jeremy Grantham’s GMO nervous Posted: 01 Jun 2020 07:14 PM PDT The firm founded by famous bear Jeremy Grantham is worried equities are looking expensive as investors underestimate the coming hit to earnings. If there's one number that Ben Inker is finding particularly hard to wrap his head around amid the COVID crisis, it's this one – 6 per cent. That is the amount by which analysts expect Wall Street's earnings per share to fall in the fourth quarter of 2020 from a year earlier. Just 6 per cent. That's it. That's how mild the market expects the impact of the biggest global economic hit in a generation to actually be. "The fourth quarter in 2019 was one of the best quarters ever for large companies," Inker tells Chanticleer from his home in Massachusetts, sounding more than a little incredulous. "I don't know whether investors believe the forecasts they are looking at. I don't know how long it's going to take it for the market to wake up to reality. And I don't know exactly what reality is going to look like." But what he does know is that he's nervous. Inker is the head of asset allocation at GMO, the firm founded by legendary British investor Jeremy Grantham, who is credited with warning of Japan's sharemarket bubble in the 1980s, the tech bubble in the early 2000s, and the conditions that led to the global financial crisis (GFC). A bit of the inherent scepticism of the investors they call the Perma Bear naturally flows through the value-oriented GMO and it's no surprise that the sharp rally in US equities – the S&P 500 is now up 36.5 per cent since the market's low on March 23 – has forced Inker's hand. So in the midst of the fastest bull market in history, GMO is retreating from equities. Jeremy Grantham's GMO fund is pulling back on equities. Domino Postiglione For its un-correlated funds (which don't use a benchmark to measure relative returns) Inker has reduced the net equity exposure to 25 per cent from 55 per cent. The equity exposure of benchmarked funds has been cut in a similar, albeit smaller way. Grantham is completely behind the decisions. "This was a big move for us and makes our portfolios look very different to most big portfolios," Inker explains. "Which is a scary thing to do." But he says his team was guided by the simple principle that they wouldn't invest their own money in the market at these levels. "We'd rather take the risk of looking stupid than … be in a position where we lost the clients 30 per cent or 40 per cent because the equity market took another leg down." Inker acknowledges that GMO, which reportedly manages about $80 billion, has had a difficult year, like many investors. Its value orientation meant it underperformed the market as it went down, but Inker says the firm's funds have largely kept up with the rally, which has limited absolute losses. GMO increased its equities position when the market was down 30 per cent in mid March, believing stocks were fairly prices for a downturn that would be about twice the severity of the GFC. Where GDP fell 3.25 per cent during that period and took seven quarters to reach a new high, GMO expected the COVID-19 crisis to wipe between 6 per cent and 6.5 per cent from GDP, which would not be back to the new high until the end of 2021. As such, GMO was banking on steady returns over the course of several years from its equities bet. What it got was what Inker describes as "a monumental rally". "We got the returns we were expecting, we just got them an awful lot faster than we were expecting. And that started to make us nervous." GMO's view is that it is dealing with incredible uncertainty caused by "a virus of which the world has a grand total of five months of experience" and it cannot make post-rally stock valuations, even in the most optimistic of scenarios. Small business key to cashflows Yes, the Federal Reserve has taken incredible, and Inker argues justified, steps to save companies that would have otherwise become bankrupt through no real fault of their own. But he doesn't believe it can stop the hit to earnings that will arrive when the US government's massive but limited stimulus runs out. "As we see it, the Federal Reserve can do a lot to help investor confidence, but it can do little to help corporate cashflow." The big problem is small business. The business models of many retailers and restaurants won't work if they're only allowed to operate at a percentage of their pre-crisis capacity. Those small businesses employ a lot of people, and it will take a long time for laid of workers to get new jobs. That surge in unemployment can't help but hit corporate cashflow. Inker faced another problem in retreating from equities – cash offered now risk, but also no reward. His two bets are on emerging market stocks and particularly value stocks. If GMO is wrong about the economy, and the recovery is V-shaped, then these value stocks should do well. And if the downturn is prolonged and ugly, Inker thinks he can still win. "We think we do have a pretty nice margin of safety here. Value stocks can withstand quite a bad economic outcome and still outperform over the next several years because there just so much cheaper." https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/rally-leaves-jeremy-grantham-s-gmo-nervous-20200602-p54ym8 [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Oil prices hold ground ahead of OPEC+ meeting on extended output cuts Posted: 01 Jun 2020 07:06 PM PDT | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Algorithm for Minimizing Leftover Cash Posted: 02 Jun 2020 04:38 AM PDT Hi - Does anyone have a suggestion (program?) for buying stocks in a way that minimizes leftover cash in a portfolio? Thanks. [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 02 Jun 2020 04:01 AM PDT I came into some money I want to do the right thing with. Am I better off paying down the principal on my mortgage loan or putting it in my individual IRA account or I have a work IRA also? [link] [comments]  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Website to find reliable pre-market news? Posted: 01 Jun 2020 11:54 PM PDT Hey! I'm looking for a website that provides the latest news in stocks pre-market, earnings and press releases. Mainly looking to find possible gap up/down stocks that day. Thanks! [link] [comments]  |
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