Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing |
- Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.
- [WSJ] Fed Stress Test Finds U.S. Banks Healthy Enough to Withstand the Coronavirus Crisis
- Nike posts surprise loss as COVID-19 hits wholesale business
- Initial Jobless Claims For the week ending on June 20, 2020: 1,480,000
- White House Considers Broad Federal Intervention to Secure 5G Future
- Machine learning in trading?
- IMF warns investors that global stock market rally is a gamble
- UK regulator (FCA) tells Wirecard to stop all transactions and to freeze customer's accounts
- While Hertz Stock Surged, CDS Auction Valued Bonds at 26 Cents
- Beginner's guide to dividend analysis
- Bloomberg - Banks Get Easier Volcker Rule and $40 Billion Break on Swaps
- What do you guys thing of $SPR
- Cannabis (Long-Term) Discussion
- While California was the first to pass to laws to address Uber drivers misclassification, New York, New Jersey, Washington, and Oregon are considering taking similar action.
- 'Make no mistake...the pandemic morphed into a Depression-like crisis,' says UCLA economist, who predicts U.S. economy won't recover from coronavirus until 2023
- Unusual Option Activity for June 25th, 2020 FLIR
- Question About Dual Momentum Portfolio Strategy
- What happens to shorts when trading is halted?
- US Department of Labor proposes rule banning ESG from funds from pensions
- How to calculate the Annualized Rate of Return of your portfolio and compare it to any benchmark (Includes an example in excel and explanations)
- What do you think about investing in gold-backed ETFs?
- Redefining Fixed Income
- Prof. Damodaran's S&P 500 COVID Valuation Model Visualized
- Are financial ETFs something I should be avoiding? FAS ETF
| Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Posted: 25 Jun 2020 05:10 AM PDT If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions. If you are going to ask how to invest you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  |
| [WSJ] Fed Stress Test Finds U.S. Banks Healthy Enough to Withstand the Coronavirus Crisis Posted: 25 Jun 2020 01:57 PM PDT For now banks seem to be healthy enough but if this stretches out for another year, the article said banks could see a 700 billion dollar loss. The fed is also preventing banks from buybacks to preserve capital. Thoughts? [link] [comments]  |
| Nike posts surprise loss as COVID-19 hits wholesale business Posted: 25 Jun 2020 09:52 PM PDT (Reuters) - Nike Inc (NKE.N) on Thursday reported an unexpected quarterly loss - its first in more than two years - hurt by closures of department and retail stores due to lockdowns spurred by the COVID-19 pandemic. FILE PHOTO: A silhouette of a woman wearing a protective face shield and a protective face mask is seen near a Nike logo at a shopping mall on the first day after the government eased restrictions amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Jakarta, Indonesia, June 15, 2020. REUTERS/Ajeng Dinar Ulfiana The footwear maker's shares fell about 4% in after-hours trading. The wholesale business, through which Nike sells merchandise to other retailers, came to a halt amid the health crisis. That led to a 50% fall in shipments, increased inventory and higher costs due to order cancellations. As a result, gross margin fell 820 basis points in the fourth quarter, when company-owned stores and other retailers were closed for nearly eight weeks. However, Nike's investments in its digital platform over the years helped it record a 75% rise in online sales, as many consumers shopped for activewear and sneakers from the comfort of their homes. Chief Executive Officer John Donahoe told analysts the company is now accelerating focus on its online presence, and expects its overall business to reach 50% digital penetration. Online sales accounted for 30% of total revenue in the quarter. "COVID-19 has shown that our strategy is sound," Donahoe said. In China, where the virus was first detected, all of Nike's stores are now open. Revenue fell 3% in the Greater China region, while they plunged nearly 47% in North America. Forrester Research retail analyst Sucharita Kodali said the Nike brand is still strong and China sales number is an indicator of what to expect in western markets and the United States as things normalize. "It's not financially distressed ... It does not have the problems of other companies in retail." Nike's net loss came in at 51 cents per share and revenue fell 38% to $6.31 billion. Wall Street was expecting a profit of 7 cents per share and revenue of $7.32 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv. [link] [comments]  |
| Initial Jobless Claims For the week ending on June 20, 2020: 1,480,000 Posted: 25 Jun 2020 05:30 AM PDT Source: https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OPA/newsreleases/ui-claims/20201302.pdf Initial Jobless Claims: Survey: 1,320,000 Actual: 1,480,000 Prior Week: 1,508,000 Prior Week Revised: 1,540,000 Continuing Jobless Claims: Survey: 20,000,000 Actual: 19,522,000 Prior Week: 20,544,000 Prior Week Revised: 20,289,000 Total Jobless claims in the last 14 weeks: 45,086,000 For comparison sake, the worst weekly jobless claims during the Global Financial Crisis was 665,000, for the week ending on March 27, 2009. This is the 14th consecutive week of new weekly jobless claims being over 1 million. [link] [comments]  |
| White House Considers Broad Federal Intervention to Secure 5G Future Posted: 25 Jun 2020 12:44 PM PDT Non-paywall Google AMP link: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/white-house-federal-intervention-5g-huawei-china-nokia-trump-cisco-11593099054 Key Takeaways:
What are your thoughts on this? I have a few options for Ericsson and Nokia, but I'm thinking that for 2 years down the road, Ericsson may be worth it to pick up some shares / exercise the calls. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 26 Jun 2020 12:54 AM PDT So there's a company that claims to use machine learning to train AI to make (generally) successful investments. Now to me, this sounds too good to be true. According to a friend of mine, his dad has had success with this company for a few months. But I'm skeptical. Even if their AI is really good, it won't be right 100% of the time. Also the AI uses Bitcoin for it's trading. Which means that any returns I get will be tied to the value of Bitcoin relative to my currency, and that value seems fairly volotile. It may be obvious at this point, but I've never invested money before. So to those with experience, what do you think? Does this seem like a scam? If it turns out not to be a scam, should I be cautious regardless? [link] [comments]  |
| IMF warns investors that global stock market rally is a gamble Posted: 25 Jun 2020 04:30 PM PDT Global stock market rally is a gamble: IMF warns investors https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/25/global-stock-market-rally-is-a-gamble-imf-warns-investors?CMP=oth_b-aplnews_d-1 Fed Caps Bank Dividends, Bans Buybacks Through September https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-25/fed-caps-bank-dividends-bans-share-buybacks-through-september? UCLA economist predicts U.S. economy won't recover from coronavirus until 2023 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/make-no-mistakethe-pandemic-morphed-into-a-depression-like-crisis-says-ucla-economist-who-predicts-us-economy-wont-recover-from-coronavirus-until-2023-2020-06-25 Nike reported decline in sales and profits https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/25/nike-nke-reports-q4-2020-earnings.html Time to take profit off stocks because 90% of the companies would announce decline in revenues and profits as businesses were shut for 2/3 (April and May) of the quarter. What are your thoughts? [link] [comments]  |
| UK regulator (FCA) tells Wirecard to stop all transactions and to freeze customer's accounts Posted: 26 Jun 2020 02:25 AM PDT https://www.fca.org.uk/news/news-stories/requirements-imposed-wirecard-authorisation Customers money on pre-paid cards have been frozen with immediate effect. Wirecard has to contact it's customers to let them know now. Next will be an investigation into returning customers money (could take months) and if wirecard have been doing anything suspicious with client money, customers are at risk at losing everything. If a firm mixes their money and client money (against the rules) if they have to pay debts then the debtors can access client money because there is no way of knowing who owns the money anymore. If this happens then FSCS kicks in to protect people (up to 100k Euros or 80k Pounds) but Wirecard is not covered by FSCS. This will likely impact any EU countries where Wirecard "passported" their permissions from the UK as it will impact them all. We can expect the other regulators to do the same. [link] [comments]  |
| While Hertz Stock Surged, CDS Auction Valued Bonds at 26 Cents Posted: 25 Jun 2020 12:33 PM PDT https://finance.yahoo.com/news/while-hertz-stock-surged-cds-203334162.html Key Take Aways: Hertz Global Holdings Inc.'s bonds were valued at 26.375 cents on the dollar in a credit derivatives auction Wednesday, casting doubt on the possibility that shares will have any value when the company emerges from bankruptcy. The relatively low bond recovery level suggests Hertz shareholders are likely to see their holdings go to zero as the company reorganizes in bankruptcy court. Hertz shares at one point doubled early Wednesday after analysts at Jefferies wrote that firms like CarMax Inc. and AutoNation Inc. could be interested in purchasing Hertz's roughly 150,000-car inventory. The stock closed at $1.61, up 30% from a day earlier. [link] [comments]  |
| Beginner's guide to dividend analysis Posted: 26 Jun 2020 03:14 AM PDT Hi guys, thought I would share some information especially for the new ones that are here about analyzing a company for a dividend investment prospect. I will show you how I do it, what I look at. Disclaimer: I am not saying this is the best way, it just my way. Will do this analysis for Coca-Cola ticker: KO. Famous company, easy to show some empirical data for it. Here we go:
Based on this Coca-Cola numbers I have the following conclusions:
[link] [comments]  |
| Bloomberg - Banks Get Easier Volcker Rule and $40 Billion Break on Swaps Posted: 25 Jun 2020 01:01 PM PDT Could this add to the speculative bubble that is the being created in the market already? [link] [comments]  |
| What do you guys thing of $SPR Posted: 26 Jun 2020 02:17 AM PDT Hi everyone, I won't bore you with the valuations - they check out. However, I'm curious if anyone had any insight into Spirit Aerosystem holdings? They seem to have good management and some promising deals in the pipeline, for example their new contract with virgin. Obviously they are trading at quite the discount because a lot of their business is from commercial planes. I personally see an attractive buying opportunity to hold for the next 2-5 years. Does anyone see why this wouldn't be a good investment? Thank you [link] [comments]  |
| Cannabis (Long-Term) Discussion Posted: 25 Jun 2020 04:22 PM PDT While many of us acknowledge that cannabis positions tend to be pretty risky, I have had some luck with Aurora Cannabis (ACB), but held onto some shares along with some MJ. I'm wondering what some people have speculated about the future of cannabis stocks, especially since I could see a Biden administration decriminalizing cannabis even though he personally opposes it. I could see Mexico following, opening up all of North America to legal markets. Currently, most (all?) are Canadian companies, but we know that Big Alcohol and Tobacco would probably make a move if the US had a significant policy change. I'm curious what everyone is thinking though:
Also, could be big boost to bank stocks too. Where do you think cannabis would keep their cash, or do you think a sector credit union would emerge? Just curious about people's long-term thoughts here. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 25 Jun 2020 07:44 PM PDT https://gritdaily.com/uber-lyft-drivers-may-soon-be-classified-as-employees-under-californias-ab-5/
[link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 25 Jun 2020 05:11 PM PDT
-Mark DeCambre; -Mark DeCambre is MarketWatch's markets editor [link] [comments]  |
| Unusual Option Activity for June 25th, 2020 FLIR Posted: 25 Jun 2020 02:28 PM PDT Welcome to another daily Unusual Options Activity post. Why do DD when you can see what stocks people are heavily investing in? Context – The S&P 500 closed +1.1% higher today. The financial sector performed especially strong +2.7%. This gain is a rebound from yesterday's more substantial losses. The market initially was lower due to a new daily record for CoVID-19 cases. The rebound, led by the financial sector, occurred after regulators eased restrictions on the Volcker Rule for banking institutions. Today, Texas and Florida announced a pause on their reopening plans. CDC officials mentioned that CoVID-19 cases might be up to ten times higher than what has been reported. The weekly jobless claim report decreased 60,000 to 1.480 million for the week ending June 20. Recap – The picks from yesterday did well considering the market increased by 1.1% with FSLY as the notable outlier. CNX (bearish play) 8.86 -.10 (-1.12%), FISV 97.43 +.82, (+0.85%), FSLY 81.41 +5.34, (+6.98%), AMD 51.91 -0.48 (-0.92%). FTCH, a pick from 06/08/20 had an increase of (+19.64%) ending at 17.79. The price at that time of the post was 15.58. Today's Option Activity Fast Facts (Stocks >$6) Sentiment – CBOE Put/Call Ratio - 0.99, VIX: (33.54, -0.30, -0.9%) Highest Multiple over Daily Avg (with ADV >1k) – CRBP with 12x it's ADV of 2,714. There were 24,222 Calls and 10,361 Puts traded. Ticker with Most Contracts Traded – INO with 282,139 contracts traded. 191,292 Calls and 90,847 puts. Largest Put to Call Ratio (w/ Option volume over 10k) – CNX with a P/C ratio of 27.89. There were 17,684 Puts and 634 calls traded. Largest Call to Put Ratio (w/ Option volume over 10k) – CCXI with a C/P ratio of 143.9. There were 19,572 calls and 136 puts traded. MOMENTUM UNSUAL OPTION ACTIVITY - Ticker: FLIR Spot Price : 39.88 +0.94 (+2.41%) Special Considerations : None Sector: Technology Industry : Scientific & Technical Instruments Company Summary (from Yahoo Finance): FLIR Systems, Inc. designs, develops, markets, and distributes thermal imaging systems, visible-light imaging systems, locater systems, measurement and diagnostic systems, and threat-detection solutions worldwide. The company operates in three segments: Industrial Business Unit, Government and Defense Business Unit, and Commercial Business Unit. The Industrial Business Unit segment offers thermal and visible-spectrum imaging camera cores and components for parties that create thermal, industrial, and other types of imaging systems; and products, such as thermal imaging cameras, gas detection cameras, firefighting cameras, process automation cameras, and environmental test and measurement devices. The Government and Defense Business Unit segment offers airborne, land, maritime, man-portable multi-spectrum imaging systems, radars, lasers, imaging components, integrated multi-sensor system platforms, CBRNE detectors, and nano-class UAS solutions, as well as services related to these systems. The Commercial Business Unit segment provides thermal and visible-spectrum security cameras, digital and networked video recorders, and related software and accessories; networked marine electronic systems that include multi-function helm displays, navigational instruments, autopilots, radars, sonar systems, thermal and visible imaging systems; communications equipment for boats, traffic cameras, sensors and associated traffic management software; and handheld thermal imagers. FLIR Systems, Inc. was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Wilsonville, Oregon. Next Earnings Date: 08/06/2020 Option Information : Today's Option Volume: 34852.0 ***Option OI:***48203.0 ADV: 4063.0 Multiple of ADV: 9.0 Total Calls: 34010.0 Total Puts: 842.0 C/P Ratio: 40.39 Calls at Ask: 41% Calls at Bid: 27% Puts at Ask: 26% Puts at Bid: 29% Notable Strikes : JUL 17 '20 45C had 22.8k VLM with 6.88k OI. JUL 17 '20 40C had 21.78k VLM with 3.13k OI. OCT 16 '20 45C had 5.06k VLM with 5.10k OI. News : None on briefing or IB. Last print was June 09, 2020 where FLIR announced that the US Army and Navy had placed orders for their products. My Impression : This stock gained considerable momentum when the pandemic first started. There was focus on possible deals with the military as well as increased need for thermal imaging systems. On May 8th the stock was $50 and has trended down since then. This seems like a solid bet given the current CoVID-19 environment and previously having traced down from it's high without any negative news that I can find. DISCLAIMER – These are my observations that I have made at the end of each day and trades that I am considering placing or watching. I am not responsible for your financial losses if you follow any of these trades. As always, do your due diligence. [link] [comments]  |
| Question About Dual Momentum Portfolio Strategy Posted: 25 Jun 2020 07:48 PM PDT I'm still pretty new to investing and was intrigued by this Vanguard sector ETF dual momentum strategy I read on seeking alpha ( https://seekingalpha.com/article/4355636-vanguard-sector-etfs-portfolio-enhanced-momentum-strategies ). Hopefully there is a "no stupid questions" policy but I apologize if this is very basic/obvious to most. Anyways, I was thinking about putting it into play but I had a couple questions I was hoping someone could help with just to make sure I fully understand: 1) Where can I find RSI? I could only really find it on stockta.com but on there I couldn't seem to set the period to have it look at. 2) When it says to pick the ones with the top relative strength, would that mean a high RSI or low RSI? I would have thought low RSI is better because it's an "undervalued" security, but I think I may have it backwards? Because the picks the guy makes at the bottom seem to be the higher RSI options? 3) For the Risk-on and risk-off calculations, I compare the 3 month T-bill to the returns on VBMFX over 3 months. So if I look at VBMFX on March 25 it was 11.19 and today it's 11.59 so the gain is 3.57%. The 3 month t-bill is 0.15% so it's clearly "risk-on," correct? Thank you! [link] [comments]  |
| What happens to shorts when trading is halted? Posted: 25 Jun 2020 10:46 PM PDT Just like the title says, if I have short positions open before market curbs kick in and halts trading, what happens to my active trade? Is it cancelled and I lost my position or does it continue on when trading resumes? I am wondering about companies like bear stearns when they went belly up, or the more recent halting when the nasdaq dropped more than 13% a couple of months ago. Anyone experience this? [link] [comments]  |
| US Department of Labor proposes rule banning ESG from funds from pensions Posted: 25 Jun 2020 10:52 AM PDT Source: https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/releases/ebsa/ebsa20200623-0 "Private employer-sponsored retirement plans are not vehicles for furthering social goals or policy objectives that are not in the financial interest of the plan," said Secretary of Labor Eugene Scalia. "Rather, ERISA plans should be managed with unwavering focus on a single, very important social goal: providing for the retirement security of American workers." [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 25 Jun 2020 08:38 AM PDT I want to share with everyone how to calculate the rate of return on your portfolio and how to compare it to any other benchmark. Please refer to the following google sheets that we will use as an example https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15M5fb5egk6aU_8t3h1QhuXAoslnSKhheCrz0x4mSMHg/edit#gid=0 How to calculate your portfolio's rate of return: The sheet includes an example of a VTSAX index fund with the following information:
The deposits must be entered as a negative and the ending value of the portfolio as a positive. Deposits should only include the amount of money you put in out of your pocket. It should not include dividends reinvested. The ending value will include the total value of your portfolio which includes any dividends reinvested so it would be captured in the rate of return. Next, refer to cell D1 where we calculate the rate of return. For that we use the XIRR function. The XIRR helps yous you measure the rate of return when multiple investments at different points in time are made. If you want to read more about the XIRR to better understand what it's doing please refer to the following article. If you're already familiar with Internal Rate of Return (IRR) the XIRR is the same concept but allows sporadic dates. As you can see, based on the dates of deposits, the deposit amounts and ending value, the annualized rate of return for this portfolio is 7.5%. But how do you interpret this result? How to interpret the rate of return: The following explanation is how I personally like to interpret the rate of return.
So how to think about this? Let's look at row 3 as an example. Imagine that on 1/23/2019 you deposited $3100 in a special bank and that bank credited you a total interest of 10.28% after 495 days. The value of your money as of 6/1/2020 is 3,419. Similarity, imagine you deposited $821 on 2/18/2020 (row 17) and in 104 days the bank credited you a total interest of 2.08% so you ended up with 838. Think of each row as a separate deposit in a special bank that credited you the interest you see in column F for depositing the money the number of days seen on column E. The sum of the amounts in column G adds up to the total value of your portfolio as of 6/1/2020. So basically, if you had deposited each of those amounts at those dates in a special bank, you would have earned the total return you see in column F as of 6/1/2020. On an annualized basis, each of those returns are 7.5%. How to compare your portfolio to another benchmark? Said differently, what would you have earned if you deposited the same amount of money on the exact dates in an entirely different portfolio? For this example, let's compare our performance to VGT index fund.
I hope this was helpful. Please let me know if you see any issue with this approach or with anything I mentioned. [link] [comments]  |
| What do you think about investing in gold-backed ETFs? Posted: 26 Jun 2020 04:33 AM PDT Hi, everyone. Lately, I've been getting more and more concerned about keeping all my money in USD and for the first time in my life, I decided to invest in gold. However, due to the Coronavirus-related lockdowns, I'm stuck in a small town (I live in Eastern Europe). So, purchasing gold coins would cost me a big premium that I'm not very happy to pay considering that I'm not planning to invest in them long-term. Naturally, I started digging into gold ETFs (I like "IAU" and "SGOL", in particular). The liquidity and small fees make them very tempting but I have a few concerns about the safety of my potential investment. I will be really grateful to anyone who takes time to answer any of my following questions (I'm only asking the questions that I didn't find answers to after internet research): 1) I saw articles that stated that when it comes to gold ETFs you are investing in gold that's not even yours. You buy shares of a trust but those shares somehow are not legally attached to actual gold and those ETFs are just a ticking time bomb like junk mortgage bonds that caused the 2008 financial crisis. And then I saw articles that stated that investing in gold ETFs is exactly the same as investing in gold, except you don't physically have access to gold. But as long as gold is worth something, your shares are worth something. Summary of my question: What do shares of gold ETFs actually represent? I know that there are different types of gold ETFs, but I'm talking about non-leveraged basic gold-backed ETFs like GLD, IAU, SGOL. 2) How would these ETFs react to an "upcoming" market crash (of course, if it actually happens)? Would their prices rise/drop with gold since they are backed by real gold? Or since they are ETFs for some magical financial reason they might go down with the rest of the market? Summary of my question: Are gold ETFs a safe investment like physical gold in case the market crashes or there is some bank f**kery that can happen to my shares? 3) I buy those shares in USD. What if USD collapses/goes through hyperinflation, while I'm holding gold ETF shares. Then the price, due to supply/demand, should adjust according to that inflation, right? Or there is something I'm missing? P.S. I might sound unjustifiably paranoid but my family has lost everything during the 1998 collapse of the Russian Ruble. I don't want that to happen again to my family. Thanks a lot for your help! Have a great day! [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 25 Jun 2020 07:16 AM PDT https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2020/06/25/redefining-fixed-income/#__prclt=H8N11Aea "The golden age of fixed income is over. The days when investors could rely on traditional bonds as safe, income-producing securities that hedge equity risk and deliver returns that keep pace with inflation are finished." It's a good read. In short, high stock prices and terrible bonds yields are going to pose significant risk to future returns and achieving the long term returns of the past is unlikely. [link] [comments]  |
| Prof. Damodaran's S&P 500 COVID Valuation Model Visualized Posted: 25 Jun 2020 03:47 PM PDT I just created a Tactyc dashboard based on Prof. Damodaran's S&P 500 valuation model that values the index and enables one to evaluate the COVID effect on corporate earnings, intrinsic values and PE ratios. Tactyc Link: https://tactyc.io/published/363/s&p-500-valuation Users can easily change input assumptions such as expected earnings growth trajectory, absolute earnings expected over the next 2 years or recovery ratios to run their own scenarios. Link to his original blog post and Excel model here: http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2020/06/a-viral-market-update-ix-do-it-yourself.html Note: The Tactyc is optimized for Chrome or Safari on a desktop browser. [link] [comments]  |
| Are financial ETFs something I should be avoiding? FAS ETF Posted: 25 Jun 2020 05:47 PM PDT FAS is trading at about $30 a share. It was at about $100 pre crash and hasn't really recovered much at all. I wanted to sell puts on it. I could credit about $150 at a strike price of $25 or so on a monthly contract. Worst case scenario I own 100 shares of FAS at $25 if my contact expires in the money. Best case I pocket $150 . My question is, is FAS a terrible buy? My portfolio doesn't contain much financial sector stocks at the moment. [link] [comments]  |
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