• Breaking News

    Saturday, May 2, 2020

    Stock Market - Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning May 4th, 2020

    Stock Market - Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning May 4th, 2020


    Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning May 4th, 2020

    Posted: 02 May 2020 06:36 AM PDT

    Good Saturday morning to all of you here on r/StockMarket. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.

    Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning May 4th, 2020.

    April's jobs report showing millions out of work looms large in the week ahead - (Source)


    Investors will focus on the slow reopening of the economy in the coming week, as Friday's dismal April employment report is expect to paint a frightening picture of the most rapid job losses in history.


    The unemployment rate is expected to jump from 4.4% to over 16.1% in April, the highest level since 1939, according to Dow Jones. Job losses are estimated to total 22 million, slightly below the entire number of jobs that were recovered since the Great Recession.


    Strategists said the market will likely be able to look past the terrible jobs number as it has done with most bad data, showing the results of a sudden and unprecedented shutdown of the economy.


    "I think people are too gloomy about the unemployment situation. I think they think the unemployment rate is going to rise through the summer," said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont. "I think the unemployment rate probably peaks in May."


    Earnings season continues with dozens more companies reporting first-quarter results and talking about the impact of the virus and shutdowns on their businesses. So far, earnings appear to be down 12.7% in the first quarter, based on actual reports and estimates, according to Refinitiv. A diverse group of companies report, including Walt Disney, General Motors, CVS Health and Bristol-Myers Squibb.


    But investors are watching the restarting of the economy, now underway at some level in many states. "If they go well that's a good thing, but if in a week or two, you start to see some bad virus numbers, that'll be a blow to confidence," said Michael Schumacher, head of rate strategy at Wells Fargo.


    Best April in years

    Stocks started May with a sharp decline Friday, after a 12.7% gain in the S&P 500 in April, its best month since 1987.


    Sam Stovall, CFRA chief investment strategist, said the market had been looking forward to the latest extension of fiscal stimulus, approved by Congress, and comments from the Fed, which reaffirmed after its meeting Wednesday that it will do whatever is needed to help the economy. "Now there's not that much to look forward to," he said, adding the market would react negatively to any resurgence in the coronavirus outbreak.


    "We had a very nice April, the best April since 1938. May is sort of a ho-hum month," said Stovall. "It's in the bottom half in terms of average price change, slightly below average in terms of frequency of an advance. … Just looking at last year, May tends to digest April's gains." The S&P 500′s April gain was its best for the month in 82 years.


    Virus economy

    Economists and market strategists have been tracking the progress of the virus state by state, watching hospitalization rates, new cases and recoveries for clues on how quickly the economy might be able to restart. The economy is expected to have plunged into a deep recession in the second quarter, contracting by 35% or more, after a 4.8% decline in the first quarter.


    Stanley said he expects the unemployment rate to be a better-than-consensus 11.6% in April before it rises again in May. "This is all a stab in the dark," he said.


    "I think it's not going to come down as quickly as it went up," said Stanley. "But I do think you're going to see steady improvement. I think you're going to see millions of people brought back into the payrolls for several months in succession. I think we can get out of the double digits [unemployment] by the end of the summer."


    Some workers are expected to return to their company payrolls as a result of the small business-focused Paycheck Protection Program, which encourages companies to keep workers on their payroll and bring back those who were cut. But that may not show up until May or June as a factor in the jobs data, Stanley said.


    Millions more are expected to have filed for unemployment claims in the week ending May 2, on top of the 30 million who filed in the previous six weeks. Economists say with such big unprecedented numbers, it is difficult to predict the unemployment rate since some people may have been temporarily unemployed and expect to return to work.


    But regardless, the number could be a shocker even though the market has shrugged off the big numbers of jobless claims and focused instead on the virus curve flattening.


    "I think it could spook people," said Schumacher. "In the markets, we've been watching the weekly claims, but everybody knows what unemployment is."


    Stanley said he is also watching Tuesday's ISM nonmanufacturing data, a look at the services sector during April. A cross section of March data shows it was the services sector that took the biggest hit in the shutdowns, and it's unclear how quickly it can recover.


    "There are people who will go and do things as soon as they're allowed to, and there are people who are going to stay home for a month or two longer," he said. "I do think expecting we're going to pack 100,000 people into a football stadium in September is way too optimistic."


    Stanley said some of the steep drop in consumer spending in March was the result of consumers stopping spending on health care, including elective surgery. That actually is an area that can bounce back quickly once the health care system is up and running for non virus related treatments.


    A new 20-year bond

    The Treasury could announce its new 20-year bond on Wednesday, when it discloses its quarterly refunding requirements, Schumacher said. He expects about $21 billion of the new 20-year to be issued in the second quarter.


    The amount of Treasury debt is expected to grow in the second quarter to help fund the growing deficit, made bigger by the trillions the government is spending to combat the virus.


    "The supply announcement we think is significant because you're going to see large auction increases, not just for one month but set in motion for many months to come," said Schumacher. He expects Treasury to announce $330 billion in notes and bonds in the refunding for the second quarter, up from $240 billion in the first quarter.


    Treasury bill issuance is expected at $1.9 trillion in the second quarter but Schumacher expects that to fall to $260 billion in the third quarter. The bills were used to give the Treasury cash to pay for emergency programs and more of that debt will move to long term debt.


    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

    Major Indices for this past week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

    Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

    Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:

    (CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PERFORMANCE!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE WEEK-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE MONTH-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE 3-MONTH PERFORMANCE!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE 52-WEEK PERFORMANCE!)

    Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

    Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!)

    US Manufacturing Sector Has Entered a Deep Recession

    It is a foregone conclusion that the US economy has entered recession, led by the consumer, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the US economy based on gross domestic product (GDP). The collapse of consumer spending was evident in March personal consumption expenditures data released on Wednesday that showed a record 7.5% month-over-month drop in consumer outlays. It would have been worse if we weren't stocking our refrigerators and pantries.

    The manufacturing sector is also contracting sharply, not surprisingly given the business shutdowns that began in March. Investors had a glimpse of the extent of the hit to manufacturing in the business investment component of first quarter GDP, which revealed a sharp 8.6% annualized decline, durable goods orders for March, which fell 14.4%, and Markit's preliminary Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing in April that came in at 36.9, a level consistent with a severe recession.

    Today's Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI for manufacturing—the so-called official PMI—provided more evidence of the depth of the manufacturing downturn. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the headline index fell 7.6 points to 41.5, better than Bloomberg's consensus forecast of 36, but a level consistent with prior recessions.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    But that's the good news. Peeling back the onion in this report reveals that the headline number was inflated by the supplier deliveries component. Normally, lengthening supplier delivery times reflect strong demand, which prevents suppliers from keeping up. However, in this environment, it reflects supply chain disruptions from lockdowns around the world related to COVID-19.

    The new orders and employment components of the report, which both fell more than 15 points to around 27, are better indicators of where manufacturing activity in the US is right now. The new orders number just missed the December 2008 level of 25.9, while the employment component hit its lowest level since 1949, putting the slump into proper perspective.

    "The more forward-looking components of the ISM report clearly indicate the manufacturing sector is in the midst of one of the sharpest contractions ever," said LPL Financial Equity Strategist Jeffrey Buchbinder. "Given the close relationship between manufacturing activity and corporate profits, the 25% cut to S&P 500 earnings estimates for 2020 that we've seen since March 1 is probably not enough."

    The ISM report points to a sharp upcoming drop in capital investment and a huge hit to earnings in the second quarter—potentially down 40% year over year (FactSet consensus is calling for a 38% year-over-year decline in S&P 500 earnings).

    Looking ahead, while the economic impact of the global lockdowns has been severe, we continue to be reassured by developing plans to reopen the economy, progress toward treatments and vaccines, and the resolve of Americans to get through this. We continue to expect a very strong rebound in manufacturing and the broad economy later this year.


    Global Central Banks All In

    The Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) all met in the last week and while the show of power was minimal compared to recent weeks, they collectively reasserted their resolve to do whatever is necessary to support the global economy through the COVID-19 economic crisis. Rates are being held about as low as they can go, significant new programs to enhance market liquidity and support lending are in place, and, as shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, asset purchases have accelerated. In fact, with April not yet completed, central bank assets have risen over $3 trillion, the biggest two-month jump on record.

    "The central bank response to COVID-19 has been fast, effective, and built to impress," said LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. "And the market is seeing it. It's no coincidence that the market bottomed the day after the Fed rolled out a wide range of new programs addressing key areas of market and economic disruption."

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Overview of Recent Central Bank Activity

    The Fed concluded its most recent two-day meeting on Wednesday, April 29. Prior to the meeting the Fed had expanded its program supporting municipalities by lowering the minimum size of the city or county to qualify. The Fed left its target rate unchanged at 0 – 0.25%. Through its policy statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments, the Fed signaled that it is unlikely to remove its extraordinary policy support anytime soon, and we believe the Fed may hold its policy rate near zero into 2022. Asset purchases are currently open-ended and have expanded to include investment-grade and high-yield corporate exchange-traded funds.

    The BOJ met on Monday, April 27 and announced that it would lift its cap on buying government bonds, making purchases open ended, and triple the size of its corporate bond commercial debt purchases.

    The ECB met on Thursday, April 30 and announced new refinancing operations and that it would ease conditions on long-term loans to banks, encouraging banks to increase lending.

    With interest rates near zero, all major central banks have been expanding their economic support through new programs and increased asset purchases. Central bank are showing that in a time of crisis, their policy response is not limited to setting policy rates or even bond purchases. The expanded activity has all but eliminated the idea that the central banks are out of ammunition, both now and looking forward. There will come a time when these programs will end, balance sheets will unwind, and rates will rise. But until that time, central banks have shown that even prudent support in a time of economic distress is only limited by their imagination, keeping the old investing maxim "Don't fight the Fed" alive even in an age of zero rates.


    Typical May Trading: A Month of Transition with Negative Predisposition

    Once again it is that time of the year where we increasingly see and hear "Sell in May." But when exactly in May is the "best" time to sell? Based upon the last 21 years of data, the best time could be early in May. The month has opened well, on average, recently with strength on the first trading day and on the second trading day for the most part. Afterwards, DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 all tend to drift sideways to lower until around May's sixteenth trading day or so. It is on this day the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 begin to rally to finish the month. Beware though, this late-May rally typically fizzles before it can exceed the highs reached earlier in the month.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    This is Still an Election Year

    We have all been rather preoccupied with the coronavirus pandemic, market volatility and our individual situation. Meanwhile there is still a U.S. Presidential Election taking place this year. And folks are beginning to wonder what the next political alignment might be and the ramifications that alignment has had on the market historically.

    Six possible political alignments exist in Washington: Republican President with a Republican congress, Democratic congress or split Congress; and a Democratic President with a Democratic Congress, Republican Congress or split Congress. Data presented in the chart below begin in 1949 with the first full presidential term following WWII.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    Election years are traditionally up years. Incumbent administrations shamelessly attempt to massage the economy so voters will keep them in power. But sometimes overpowering events occur and the market crumbles, usually resulting in a change of political control.

    Republicans won in 1920 (DJIA -32.9%) as the post-war economy contracted and President Wilson ailed. The Democrats came back during the 1932 (-23.1%) Depression when the Dow hit its lowest level of the 20th century. A world at war and the fall of France jolted the market in 1940 (-12.7%), but Roosevelt won an unprecedented third term. Cold War confrontations and Truman's historic upset of Dewey held markets down through the end of 1948 (-2.1%). Recently the Great Recession and bear market of 2008 (-33.8%) helped put Obama and the Democrats back in the White House.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    10-Day Advance/Decline Lines Running Hot

    The gains in the first half of the week lifted every sector but two—Utilities and Financials—above their 50-DMAs. Meanwhile, Health Care had even touched overbought territory (over 1 standard deviation above its 50-day) earlier in the week, making it the first sector to be overbought since late February.

    When it comes to another measure we monitor, the 10-day advance/decline line, conditions are more broadly appearing overbought. The 10-day advance/decline line measures the average number of daily advancers minus decliners in an index or sector over the last 10 trading days. Very high readings suggest that things have gotten extended in the very near term and downside mean reversion can be expected. Very low reading suggest the opposite.

    The 10-day A/D lines for sectors have been pretty strong recently indicating broad participation in the rally, but this has led these readings to become elevated indicating conditions may be running a bit too hot in the near term. Outside of the defensive sectors like Consumer Staples, Utilities, and Real Estate, every sector's 10-day A/D line has been in overbought territory at some point over the past week. The same can also be said for the 10-day A/D line for the S&P 500. We'd note, though, that while A/D lines are extended, they're not at extreme levels seen at other points over the past year.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

    STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending May 1st, 2020

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

    STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 5.3.20

    ([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())

    (VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)


    Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-


    • $SHOP
    • $ROKU
    • $DIS
    • $TSN
    • $CVS
    • $BYND
    • $PYPL
    • $SQ
    • $ATVI
    • $W
    • $UBER
    • $SRC
    • $PINS
    • $MRNA
    • $REGN
    • $L
    • $JBLU
    • $GOLD
    • $ENPH
    • $SWKS
    • $SPCE
    • $RACE
    • $TTD
    • $WAB
    • $GM
    • $PTON
    • $ALK
    • $ZNGA
    • $TEVA
    • $SYY
    • $OXY
    • $WYNN
    • $NEM
    • $PLUG
    • $TWLO
    • $TREE
    • $LYFT
    • $TMUS
    • $WING
    • $INSG
    • $CHGG

    (CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES BEFORE MONDAY'S OPEN!)

    Monday 5.4.20 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Monday 5.4.20 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)

    Tuesday 5.5.20 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)

    Tuesday 5.5.20 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #3!)

    Wednesday 5.6.20 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)

    Wednesday 5.6.20 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #3!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #4!)

    Thursday 5.7.20 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #3!)

    Thursday 5.7.20 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #3!)
    (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #4!)

    Friday 5.8.20 Before Market Open:

    (CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    Friday 5.8.20 After Market Close:

    (CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

    NONE.


    Shopify Inc. $613.64

    Shopify Inc. (SHOP) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, May 6, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.19 per share on revenue of $443.65 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.06) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $440.00 million to $446.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 371.43% with revenue increasing by 38.43%. Short interest has increased by 48.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 7.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 55.6% above its 200 day moving average of $394.27. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,144 contracts of the $500.00 put and 1,268 contracts of the $820.00 call expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 12.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.7% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    Roku Inc $114.02

    Roku Inc (ROKU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, May 7, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.45 per share on revenue of $296.58 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.41) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $300.00 million to $310.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 400.00% with revenue increasing by 43.51%. The stock has drifted lower by 23.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.8% below its 200 day moving average of $124.96. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 17, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,743 contracts of the $125.00 call and 4,228 contracts of the $125.00 put expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 14.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 19.8% move in recent quarters. Walt Disney Co $105.50

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    Walt Disney Co $105.50

    Walt Disney Co (DIS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, May 5, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.83 per share on revenue of $18.03 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.79 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 6% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 48.45% with revenue increasing by 20.83%. Short interest has increased by 34.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 28.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 19.1% below its 200 day moving average of $130.39. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, April 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 9,916 contracts of the $125.00 call expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.5% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    Tyson Foods Inc. $60.01

    Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Monday, May 4, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.21 per share on revenue of $11.64 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.23 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 37% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 0.83% with revenue increasing by 11.46%. Short interest has increased by 3.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 25.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 24.5% below its 200 day moving average of $79.45. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, April 27, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,444 contracts of the $47.50 put expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.5% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    CVS Health $59.70

    CVS Health (CVS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Wednesday, May 6, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.63 per share on revenue of $63.07 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.67 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 0.62% with revenue increasing by 2.31%. Short interest has decreased by 19.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 20.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.8% below its 200 day moving average of $65.46. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, May 1, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,882 contracts of the $62.00 call and 3,579 contracts of the $59.00 put expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.4% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    Beyond Meat, Inc. $91.53

    Beyond Meat, Inc. (BYND) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, May 5, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.06 per share on revenue of $86.88 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.05) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 55% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 57.14% with revenue increasing by 116.09%. Short interest has increased by 18.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 4.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 17.7% below its 200 day moving average of $111.22. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 22.4% move on earnings in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    PayPal $120.61

    PayPal (PYPL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Wednesday, May 6, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.76 per share on revenue of $4.72 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.79 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.76 to $0.78 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 2.56% with revenue increasing by 14.34%. Short interest has decreased by 28.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 6.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.5% above its 200 day moving average of $107.22. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, April 16, 2020 there was some notable buying of 8,192 contracts of the $110.00 call expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.0% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    Square, Inc. $63.00

    Square, Inc. (SQ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, May 6, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.13 per share on revenue of $1.30 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.10 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 42% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.16 to $0.18 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 8.33% with revenue increasing by 35.51%. Short interest has increased by 1.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 22.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.3% below its 200 day moving average of $65.16. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 17, 2020 there was some notable buying of 7,655 contracts of the $60.00 put and 7,447 contracts of the $60.00 call expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 10.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.0% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    Activision Blizzard, Inc. $64.72

    Activision Blizzard, Inc. (ATVI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, May 5, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.33 per share on revenue of $1.31 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.41 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 80% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of approximately $0.66 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 3.13% with revenue decreasing by 28.22%. Short interest has decreased by 37.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 15.4% above its 200 day moving average of $56.10. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 17, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,850 contracts of the $72.50 call expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.9% move in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    Uber Technologies, Inc. $28.39

    Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, May 7, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.89 per share on revenue of $3.34 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.89) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 30% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 60.62% with revenue increasing by 7.78%. Short interest has increased by 10.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 28.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 11.5% below its 200 day moving average of $32.08. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 6.9% move on earnings in recent quarters.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


    DISCUSS!

    What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?


    I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead r/StockMarket.

    submitted by /u/bigbear0083
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    CONGRATULATIONS, /r/StockMarket, ON 400,000 SUBSCRIBERS!

    Posted: 02 May 2020 09:57 AM PDT

    Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the trading week beginning May 4th, 2020

    Posted: 02 May 2020 03:35 AM PDT

    Airline Stocks Crash Monday?

    Posted: 02 May 2020 04:55 PM PDT

    Buffett gave a pretty grim outlook for all of the airlines at his stakeholder meeting today, and stated that he sold everything. I think we retest the lows for all airlines and could see Boeing head well under 100/share next week as Buffett's forecast triggers a huge selloff.

    submitted by /u/INMF88
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    How to Create Stock Alert System using Python and Windows Task Scheduler

    Posted: 02 May 2020 02:49 PM PDT

    I always wanted to create my own EOD stock alert. I finally managed to do that in Python. If any of you guys are interested to know how I did it you can read it on my blog. It is very simple. Cheers!

    Link: https://medium.com/@a.nejad_99199/how-to-create-stock-alert-system-using-python-and-windows-task-scheduler-5e909c24af27?sk=be166a36e07c1aec924ff5970017d146

    submitted by /u/dr_amir7
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    Warren Buffett's Berkshire posts record net loss of nearly $50 billion on coronavirus

    Posted: 02 May 2020 05:42 AM PDT

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/02/warren-buffetts-berkshire-posts-record-net-loss-of-nearly-50-billion-on-coronavirus.html

    Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway posted a higher operating profit on Saturday, but the coronavirus pandemic pummeled its common stock investments and led to a record net loss.

    Berkshire's first-quarter net loss totaled $49.75 billion, or $30,653 per Class A share, reflecting $54.52 billion of losses from investments, mainly common stocks. A year earlier, net earnings totaled $21.66 billion, or $13,209 per share.

    submitted by /u/coolcomfort123
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    Will the US Government allow ford to fail?

    Posted: 02 May 2020 02:23 PM PDT

    Ford has raised $8 billion in high-interest debt (9%) to help it survive the coronavirus crisis. At this time Ford has more than $30 billion in total debt, that is 11 billion more than their market cap!

    The company's recent credit downgrade has become a self-fulfilling prophecy. The high interest rates make it harder for Ford to meet its obligations.

    With cash flow deteriorating in every automotive segment, Ford is one step closer to bankruptcy.

    This comes at a time when the automaker expects to see revenue and cash flow drop dramatically due to global lockdowns and impending recession. The new junk loans will damage Ford's balance sheet and further strain the company's cash flow with high interest rates. Paradoxically, these loans could end up taking the company closer to bankruptcy over the long-term

    submitted by /u/ZamanMahmoudi
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    Future unemployment costs

    Posted: 02 May 2020 02:02 PM PDT

    May 2020 20 Billion/week
    June - July 2020 25 Billion/week (easily)

    This is a BIG deal (5 charts):

    https://medium.com/@brandonburdette/putting-the-numbers-to-work-unemployed-at-large-b018848e752b

    submitted by /u/PracticalChicken1
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    Trading Penny Stocks vs. Blue Chip Stocks

    Posted: 02 May 2020 08:19 AM PDT

    Penny stocks get a bad reputation in the stock market, rightfully so, but that doesn't necessarily make them bad to trade. Most people actually start of trading penny stocks as opposed to what are known as "blue chip stocks." Like anything else, there are pros and cons to each. I wanted to share this post to talk about some of the misconceptions of penny stocks, and explain why I personally focus on them with my own day trading.

    First, what even is a penny stock? No... penny stocks are not just stocks worth a single penny and no they're not just stocks worth less than $1.00. By definition, any stock priced below $5.00 per share is considered a penny stock.

    Penny stocks are priced low for a reason. They're usually the stock of a lesser-know company with not-so-reliable reputation to their shareholders. That's why they have such a bad reputation in general, and is why a lot of people think trading penny stocks is pure gambling. At the end of the day, penny stocks offer day traders a lot more than most blue chip stocks offer.

    A blue chip stock is the stock of a huge company with a great reputation. These are stocks like Apple ($AAPL), Amazon ($AMZN), Google ($GOOG), Facebook ($FB), etc... basically "household name" companies. Although these seem like the better investment options, they're not necessarily going to be the better option for an average trader.

    Penny Stock Pros:

    Higher Volatility: Penny stocks generally have much higher volatility than blue chip stocks, making them more high risk, high reward. A certain amount of volatility is needed for day trading! Without it there is not enough price movement to be able to get in and out of positions within the day like day traders do. The high volatility in the penny stock market is the reason traders are able to make 10%, 20%, even 50% or more in a single day... a very rare occurrence in the blue chip market.

    Less Money Needed: With penny stocks you may be able to buy 1,000s of shares at a time with a small account when you'd only be able to buy a few shares of a blue chip stock. Because of the extra volatility in the penny stock market, your 1,000 share penny stock investment has potential for a greater return than your 1,000 share blue chip investment... even though you'd be investing far more capital into the blue chip stock. With that being said, penny stocks are usually looked at as the much better option for new traders with limited capital to start trading. In fact, that why most new traders do end up starting with penny stocks, which leads me to the third "pro."

    Less "Competition": Your competition in the stock market is every single other buyer and seller. Everyone is competing against each other to get the best prices and to buy low and sell high for a profit. When one person loses money, another gains! So... would you rather be competing against multi-billion dollar funds and investment firms in the blue chip market, or a herd on new traders with little-to-no experience in the penny stock market? Now that's not to say there aren't still investment firms and algorithmic trading taking place in the penny stock market, but it is less common than it is in the blue chip market.

    Penny Stock Cons:

    Higher Volatility: A double-edged sword. As I already mentioned above, the higher volatility of the penny stock market can definitely be a big benefit, but if you're not careful it can also cause larger losses than you would experience with less volatility. This is why risk management and proper position sizing is crucial, especially when trading stocks with high volatility.

    Less Volume: This is one of the concerns that most traders bring up when they talk about why they don't trade penny stocks. In my opinion, this doesn't make much sense as a "con" just for penny stocks, because there are plenty blue chip stocks with low liquidity and volume as well. As day traders, we have to adapt to the market on a daily basis. This means finding the stocks making larger-than-average moves with high relative volume and, usually, news or a press release to go along. Volume is only an issue with day trading penny stocks if you're choosing the wrong penny stocks to day trade.

    Low-Quality Companies: Again, penny stocks are priced low for a reason. If they were multi-billion dollar companies with years of growing profitability, their stock price would reflect that. It's important to trade the stock, don't fall in love with it! You don't want to invest in a penny stock long-term, because the odds of you picking the next Amazon of Apple are slim to none. Instead, take advantage of the increase volatility brought by the penny stock market for day trading and look to the more reliable blue chip market for your swing trades longer-term investments.

    As you can see, there are definitely some pros and cons to consider before diving into the penny stock market to start day trading. If you have the discipline to manage risk properly then they can be a great option to grow a small trading account in a short period of time. Otherwise, you may want to take things a bit more slowly by focussing your trading on less volatile, more stable blue chip stocks.

    submitted by /u/mtmtrader
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    Where do I find info on old IPOs?

    Posted: 02 May 2020 01:18 PM PDT

    Hey, theres several stocks where id like to know about their IPOs and details about it.

    Theyre listed on US stockmarkets. The dates of the IPOs are 2008 and 2002. Where can I find old IPO info?

    I tried googling. No luck. Weird.

    submitted by /u/livinglibary
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    Newbie here: Investing in a stable stock with little volatility

    Posted: 02 May 2020 01:34 AM PDT

    Newbie question. Is there any point in investing long term in a low volatile stock at the ceiling of its growth?

    If you hold it for ten years and it's roughly around the same price what was the point? If you cash out and make the same as you did when investing there wasn't much of a gain. Are there other benefits that I'm not understanding?

    submitted by /u/TheRenaissanceG
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    Why buy into a major blue chip stock? (Very noob question)

    Posted: 02 May 2020 08:07 AM PDT

    I'm extremely new to the premise of stock market trading, and there's many things I don't understand, yet. One of them, was why would I buy into a huge company with lower dividend yields or none such as Berkshire Hathaway or Tesla? So obviously from 2015 those company share prices were much cheaper, now they're more expensive. I guess I don't understand why buy them because in my mind I imagine them peaking right now, because of their expensiveness comparative to 5 years ago, but would the reason for buying now for example, be the expectation of that stock going even higher, maybe even double?

    submitted by /u/illuuminauti
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    Looking for some advice with spy

    Posted: 02 May 2020 06:55 AM PDT

    I was looking to place some puts on DIA and possibly SPY. I get the overall concept that if the market drops is where I profit.

    I was tempted to buy 50 last night with a strike price of 200 (currently 237.28). Expires July. Seems safe to me. Price was ~5.10$ share.

    First question is-5.10$ and 50 is actually 5.10x100x50 correct? 50 sets of 100 right?

    Next thing was when I attempted to run this in a profit calculator it was showing a loss if DIA was at 200$ in July. I'm still fuzzy on how to calculate this. Seen an entire article with a bunch of information but it was beyond my current comprehensive ability. Where am I having a disconnect with not pulling a profit on this?

    Thanks in advance.

    Edit. Alright so I worded the title pretty funky. I was looking for advice on puts. I'm meanly leaning towards DIA.

    submitted by /u/Ropegun2k
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    r/Dividends Cuts and Suspensions - Week of April 26, 2020

    Posted: 02 May 2020 06:34 AM PDT

    5/02 South Korean business news summary

    Posted: 02 May 2020 03:10 AM PDT

    The South Korean government is considering importing Remdesivir, an antiviral medication developed by the American company Gilead Sciences. It has drawn global attention as a potential cure for COVID-19.⁣⁣

    (South Korea recorded fewer than 10 new daily coronavirus infections for the fourth day in a row as of Saturday.)⁣ ⁣ (Source: Yonhap News Agency)⁣ ⁣⁣

    submitted by /u/theasiansbusiness
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    Reminder to everyone, option trades are risky. Now is still a good time to buy heavily discounted stocks. Far less risk, still big potential reward.

    Posted: 01 May 2020 12:20 PM PDT

    Seeing a lot of posts from people losing a ton of money in options trades. My guess is a large portion of those are inexperienced traders who've watched YouTube videos or saw a random person on Reddit post their success.

    I just want to remind everyone, especially newer traders, that option trading is VERY risky and most lose large sums of money. You will have the opportunity to trade options your entire life. However, there aren't going to be many crashes that offer huge stock ownership discounts like the ones we see now. I'd encourage inexperienced options traders to consider buying stock during this recession, since they don't come around often, and trying options when the market stabilizes.

    submitted by /u/UpgradeNotSure
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    Waiting for earning reports

    Posted: 01 May 2020 11:29 PM PDT

    Is it better to wait for earning reports to buy if you think a company is going to have a horrible report? I assume most reports right now would be horrible since they're reporting last Q's earnings. For instance I keep reading Disneys ER is expected to be pretty bad.

    submitted by /u/plant6116
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