Stock Market - Am I losing my mind for thinking this market is completely disconnected from reality? |
- Am I losing my mind for thinking this market is completely disconnected from reality?
- Dividend-rich bank stocks are late to the rally, but their bounce may be a good sign for market
- My 10 Top Shorts (which I implemented today) and Why I am Shorting.What do you all think?
- Biopharma products in development for COVID-19 (Complete List From BioWorld)
- Stock watch List May 18, 2020
- Criticize my plan
- With all the volatility in the stock market, and the fed printing infinite money, I’m looking for a place to park money and collect residual income. Bonds are trash at these tiny rates, and growth stocks are just too unpredictable with no income streams.
- PRICED IN. So damn tired of hearing this with what we know will be poor results going into 2nd and 3rd Q. So what exactly is priced in like this never impacted anybody
- Mark Cuban: stock market is overvalued during pandemic
- Michael Pettis: “I would argue that there's two very important fiscal roles. One is to invest in productive infrastructure, which God knows the US needs, so does Europe. And the other is to redistribute income downwards so that more spending can generate more private sector investment.”
- I purchased “a beginners guide to day trading online” by Toni Turner, have any of you read this? Is it a good tool to learn?
- Is there any way to have more than 1 IRA and max out more than one?
- Anyone else finding this market stressful
- Trading SPY and other US (e.g. infrastructure) ETFs
- Favorite EU Stock Screener
- Macrogenics (MGNX) stock put?
- DAL to resume flying several major routes in June. Would now be the best time to buy and hold long in your opinion?
- The only shock catalyst that nobody ever priced in...
- Market Open Gap Ups
- 5/18 The Fed & The Vaccine
- TD Ameritrade
- Where do I start, as a beginner, to learn about the stock market?
- Has Air travel started its recovery?
| Am I losing my mind for thinking this market is completely disconnected from reality? Posted: 18 May 2020 05:56 AM PDT It seems like the bad news outweighs the good news 10 to 1 yet any slightly positive news gets traded like it's the oracles of a God and any bad news no matter how dire gets traded like it's already priced in. Will the markets ever reconnect with reality and would that be a 1929 event? I'm on the bearish side of things mainly because I can't find a logical argument to support the narrative we are going back to 30k on the Dow in the second half of this year. Every fiber in my body is saying things are ridiculously overpriced at the moment given the reality unfolding. I do believe absolutely that we will recover, but I don't see a realistic scenario for that until next year. It's like conspiracy theories and rampant speculation have become the new truth. Maybe I have lost my mind, but nothing about any of this makes any sense. But that is the saying that markets can remain illogical longer than you can remain solvent so I would say tread with some caution in either direction you are betting on. Edit: thanks for all the feedback. I am open to being totally wrong so I don't want to say I am 100% certain of my thinking, but it makes the most sense to me at this time. That may change with time obviously. I guess what is fueling my pessimism is that I work in the service industry which saw and unprecedented 85% drop in business in my area during the shutdown. We furloughed and laid off about half our staff. Our state has reopened, but yet we aren't seeing any huge surge in business not even this week. We have picked up, but only enough to support the skeleton crew we are working with. There isn't any strong signs yet we we be able to bring back all our workers in the near future. I fear that many of our furloughed workers will turn into permanent lay-offs. I guess that's what I'm seeing for the service industry; us operating at 60-70% our normal levels for the rest of the year. And if it's doing that to us then what is it going to do to other industries like retail, restaurants, and entertainment which are in much more vulnerable positions? But extrapolating what I am seeing on the ground into a macro-picture could be mis-leading, but it has me spooked enough that I'm not going to bet heavily on this rally. There are deals to be had though, but just use some caution and probably avoid meme stocks. Edit 2: My state reopened May 1st so it's been about 3 weeks and we have yet to see this "return to normal" even though our state is fairing quite well with the virus and our case count is consistently dropping even with the reopen. I do agree that states that stay closed too long are doing unnecessary damage to their economies at this point. Unless you are New York or New Jersey then it's probably time to start doing a phased reopening. But what I am seeing on the ground is not anywhere close to a "return to normal" and we are 3 weeks into our reopening. That is what is spooking me. I do believe we will return to normal, but I anticipate it being much further away that the markets are currently pricing it in to being. But again I could totally have this read wrong. [link] [comments]  |
| Dividend-rich bank stocks are late to the rally, but their bounce may be a good sign for market Posted: 18 May 2020 02:42 PM PDT Bank stocks were a big winner Monday, as the Dow surged 900 points, and it could be a good sign for the broader market if the rally continues. Banks and financials are the "canary in the coal mine" for the health of the economy, and they have lagged every sector but consumer staple since the market low in March. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway sold its stake in Goldman Sachs but kept most other bank holdings and added some shares, viewed as a positive for the sector. "The evidence is overwhelming that when financials outperform the broad market rises," said one analyst. [link] [comments]  |
| My 10 Top Shorts (which I implemented today) and Why I am Shorting.What do you all think? Posted: 18 May 2020 03:27 PM PDT I believe the market is overvalued, and a crash significant is yet to come. I can't time the market and have no idea exactly when it will come, but believe many stocks are grossly overvalued given the situation. I also believe once it crashes it will take years to get back to current levels. These are my reasons:
Below are my short stock picks and brief rationale why. I'd love to get feedback if anyone agrees or disagrees. Name P/E Debt/Capitalization Air Lease Corp 4.39 72% Credit Acceptance Corp 9.08 66% Hilton Grand Vacations 9.14 79% Best Buy 13.61 27% Genuine Parts CO 17.9 51.50% Callaway 21 51% IAA Auto Auctions 26.24 108% Restaurant Brand International 28 78% Five Below 29 0 Penn National Gaming 51 85.00% Zillow Negative 37% Credit Acceptance Corp: This is my #1 Short. I think this company is going to get hammered (fuck this company too as they are predatory lenders). These guys provide auto financing to the worst of the worst (think 25% interest rates and no verification of income). In good times about 30% of their loans go bad. Even if their loans get paid (I don't think they will), futures sales will be driven down along with auto sales (which will decrease with the weak economy as well as people not needing cars because they are not commuting). Penn: They own racetracks, casinos and slot machines. They have considerable and a 2019 P/E of 51 (negative TTM P/E for 3/31/2020), and will lose money for 2020 and beyond. I don't see how anyone thinks this is a good time to invest in a growth, leveraged casino company. Restaurant Brands International: These guys own Burger King, Tim Hortons and Popeyes. I like Popeyes but that only represents a small fraction of income (under 10% I believe). I like Tim Hortons, but they have no room to grow and will lose with COVID-19 with less people commuting and no need for their morning coffee. I view Burger King as one of the weaker fast food brands. Zillow: Company is not profitable as it is (negative earnings). Less people will be moving with COVID-19. Recession will also result in less advertising. Will take much longer for this company to become profitable. Price will go down. Five Below: I think the loss in retail sales are really gonna hurt these guys. There is no reason to go to this store if you can get the same stuff delivered to you from Amazon for cheaper. Air Lease Corp: This company will get hurt with the loss of air travel. They lease aircrafts to major airlines. Some of their customers may not even be able to continue paying their lease. IAA Auto Auctions: This company facilitates auto auctions. They have a lot of debt and P/E is up there a bit. This companies holds auto auctions. I think there will be less demand for autos which will affect their revenues. They do get some revenues from auto sellers but most is from the buyer (66% is from the buyer). Genuine Parts Co: This company Genuine Parts Company distributes automotive replacement parts, industrial replacement parts, office products and electrical/electronic materials. With the decline in industry and miles driven, I think they will be negatively affected. Hilton Grand Vacations: This is a spin off of Hilton that sells time shares. I don't think now is a time people want to commit to buying a timeshares. Some existing customers may stop paying if they are unable to use their timeshare or unable to afford it. They also have a lot of debt. Best Buy: These guys may do okay (competitors were closed), but if they report bad earnings this week I think they are screwed. Why do we need BestBuy anymore? People can buy lab-tops online and can buy TVs at Target and/or Walmart. I think long-term this is a bad investment and COVID-19 may speed that up. Callaway: I love this company and brand (I use to own this stock), but this is a competitive industry and less discretionary income results in less sales. P/E has been increasing and I think price will adjust. Is this the year people want to upgrade their golf equipment? You cannot even talk about your new clubs in the clubhouse in most states. [link] [comments]  |
| Biopharma products in development for COVID-19 (Complete List From BioWorld) Posted: 18 May 2020 07:48 PM PDT https://www.bioworld.com/COVID19products#the The most complete list I saw online, updated every day, very professional source, such a data trove. As a community let's do some DD together, enjoy guys. Therapeutics in development: 295 Vaccines in development: 109 [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 18 May 2020 05:46 AM PDT Good morning, here's my watch list Gap Ups: ACB, BIDU, BNTX, DDOG, DKNG, ERI, FLGT, FSLY, JNUG, MRNA, NVAX, NVDA, PYPL, RCL, SE, VIR Gap Down: FSCT Possible day 2 play: SRNE (day 2 means it moved last session and could be in play today) SPY gapping up after testing the 272 support, nearing the 200 Daily moving average at 300, will have to see if price can break through or gets rejected. Possibly we go sideways here for a while longer before we get a break in either direction. Last week we saw low volume at open on most stocks but trades still had follow through. Not many stocks gapping on individual catalyst today and the market and since SPY is gapping around 2% pre market so things could get choppy as large gap days in the market often make for difficult trading. Be patient, good luck today. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 18 May 2020 08:36 PM PDT Hear me out, then feel free to rip my plan apart. I have a HYSA. Earns like $500/year in interest. So I took 10% and put it into a brokerage account. I buy $100-$200 in stocks (bought TSLA once) at a time. So if DIS is a $100/share, I buy 1 or 2. My goal is to beat my interest in earnings. So far I have earned $732 in realized. I'm down $180 in unrealized losses. It's fun. I watch CNBC and make trades off of common sense. Like buying home improvement off the bounce. My strategy has been to sell a stock if it goes higher than 20% gain, no matter what. Big winners for me are TSLA, SPCE, ZM, HD, TDOC, DOCU, PYPL, TEAM, GLD, SHW Losers are hold until 12/31. Right now, I'm holding lots of the cyclical value plays: TRIP, H, UAL, Royal Carib Thoughts? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 18 May 2020 01:19 PM PDT That leaves me with dividends, and right now there are some juicy yields, considering the lockdown, stocks like AT&T should still be up since they provide internet and phone service which people will always pay for no matter what. I plan to invest a majority of my money into this company. I came across several dividend stocks and it looks like AT&T is paying out a fat 7% dividend with a 64% payout ratio. This guy mentions it in his video. Is this really a good deal , because it almost seems too good to be true to lock in a full on 7% dividend yield. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 18 May 2020 06:30 PM PDT If everything is priced in then why are we racing back to ATH? Almost like there is no negative corporate/stock impact to all the losses that have or will happen. ...Q2 is likely going to be far worse. A lot of the upcoming bad news for Q2 is largely priced in to markets, but so is much of the Fed and government-backed stimulus... [link] [comments]  |
| Mark Cuban: stock market is overvalued during pandemic Posted: 18 May 2020 10:18 AM PDT Billionaire investor and noted crypto critic Mark Cuban made some eyebrow-raising comments in an interview with CNBC this week, suggesting that the stock market is currently overvalued due to uncertainty around consumer spending amid the COVID-19 pandemic. "I think the market is overvalued. I think it's almost impossible to predict where consumer and corporate demand is going to come from," said Cuban. "Because of that, it's hard to create a valuation for businesses." Read more: Mark Cuban: stock market is overvalued during pandemic [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 18 May 2020 08:45 AM PDT Demetri Kofinas speaks with professor of finance at Beijing's Peking University, Michael Pettis. Profesor Pettis' research has focused mainly on Chinese financial markets, global trade & capital flows, and central banking. He spent seventeen years on Wall Street running fixed-income trading and capital market desks and has advised governments on privatizations of national banking systems and commercial bank debt restructuring & loan issuance. In their latest book, "Trade Wars are Class Wars," Michael Pettis and his co-author Matthew Klein argue that rising inequality within countries heightens trade conflicts between them. The entire conversation lasts for approximately two hours and we devote the first hour to understanding how balance of payments and capital flows—themselves heavily dependent on the dynamics of wealth and income distribution within a country's borders—can generate imbalances in trade, asset prices, interest rates, debt levels, and currency valuations, often leading to misallocations of capital for the surplus and deficit countries alike. The second hour is devoted to applying this balance of payments framework to specific economies—namely, the United States, the Eurozone, and China. Demetri and Michael discuss how the financial instability generated from the sorts of imbalances discussed in this episode are now seeping into our systems of government, turning a financial crisis into a political one. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 18 May 2020 08:09 PM PDT Title. I'm looking at getting into trading as a little side hobby to try and make some money. I'm also trying to become an Actuary as my career so I feel having some knowledge in the stock market could be helpful. I've downloaded a few apps in attempt to learn about stocks as well. Any guidance or resources you could direct me to is appreciated. [link] [comments]  |
| Is there any way to have more than 1 IRA and max out more than one? Posted: 18 May 2020 06:22 PM PDT Sorry if this is a stupid question, but is there any way to have more than 1 IRA and be able to contribure the maximum ($6,000) to both? I know you can have a 401k and IRA and make contirbutions but how about a roth and a traditional? Thanks . [link] [comments]  |
| Anyone else finding this market stressful Posted: 18 May 2020 01:50 PM PDT I am constantly moving between bullish and bearish positions. The uncertainty in the market is the highest I can remember. Genuinely considering just selling everything so I don't have to think about it until we have a more predicable market. Anyone else just feel the current market is not worth the hassle? Anyone found a way to deal with the stress of the current market situation? [link] [comments]  |
| Trading SPY and other US (e.g. infrastructure) ETFs Posted: 18 May 2020 01:25 PM PDT Quite new to this, hence the question. I was told by my broker (IBKR) that apparently people from EEA cannot trade majority of the US ETFs as they do not comply with certain EU regulation. If you are an EU investor how do you go about investing in ETFs? How would you get an exposure to a diversified infrastructure portfolio without owning the underlying stocks? Can you still trade options on these ETFs even if you cannot own the underlying? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 18 May 2020 10:42 AM PDT HI I've been trading a lot on Nasdaq through the years but recently I've become quite fond for stocks that aren't public on Nasdaq (Eu and Japanese Stocks). Problem is that it's hard to invest in EU companies without knowing their fundamentals. What's you're favorite EU Stock screener where you can view P/E ratio's and other fundamentals over time? Best regards from your local Bear [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 18 May 2020 10:39 AM PDT This stock jumped from around 7 bucks up to 28 bucks in less than 3 weeks. Below is why the stock jumped over 200%: So whatMargetuximab, an optimized formulation of the top-selling breast cancer drug Herceptin, is the biotech's most advanced drug. Last week, news that a Food and Drug Administration decision on margetuximab could happen by the end of 2020 sparked a one-day rally of over 200%. Today, the company's earlier-stage drug candidates, MGD013 and MGC018, are fueling optimism. source: https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/05/11/why-macrogenics-stock-jumped-29-today.aspx Other than that, I don't see why this stock is staying above 20 bucks and it's way overvalued imo. What do you guys think about a $20 put expires on 10/16? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 18 May 2020 08:59 AM PDT They are looking to resume flying to some of their major routes in June and as of right now their stock rose 11.76% and is priced at approximately 21.50$. Delta being one of the safer airlines to bank on, would now in your opinion be the time to buy and hold long or do you expect another dip to occur? I'm tempted to buy in today but since its been a Green Day for the most part I'm itching to go in when its red. [link] [comments]  |
| The only shock catalyst that nobody ever priced in... Posted: 18 May 2020 07:34 PM PDT ...would be if the Federal Reserve suddenly imploded. With all the violations of the Federal Reserve Act, a lot of arrests could hypothetically be made. Do you think it's a possibility? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 18 May 2020 10:57 AM PDT Hi fellow stock traders! Wondering if anyone does research to identify gap ups during market open. If so, how are you finding stock company's and if you have certain criterias (ex. Average volume, market cap, pre or post earnings, etc.). [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 18 May 2020 05:44 AM PDT Market Notes: Fed Chairman Powell said that the fed had plenty of tools at its disposal to support the overall markets. He offered warnings also but those appear to be largely ignored. There is some optimism about a possible vaccine this morning. Futures are up nearly 3% as we approach critical resistance at last week's highs. Watchlist: DFFN is on the move this morning, watching for support at $1.50 VRML has resistance at $2.70 SRNE is on the move this morning. On watch for a setup GERN is a former runner, support at $1.60, resistance at $1.80 [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 18 May 2020 10:33 AM PDT So im getting rid of robinhood and going to TD. Does anyone know of any promotional shit I can use before I sign up? Also, Any advice on how to start switching my money from RH to TD would be appreciated. TIA [link] [comments]  |
| Where do I start, as a beginner, to learn about the stock market? Posted: 18 May 2020 09:49 AM PDT Hi, I am a seventeen year old who is bored in quarantine. I want to have fun and learn at the same time, so I decided to learn about the stock market. Any suggestions would be gladly appreciated. [link] [comments]  |
| Has Air travel started its recovery? Posted: 18 May 2020 12:58 PM PDT Stocks like BA, UAL, GE it seems like they have hit bottom already and are now recovering with the covid restrictions being loosened. Will this continue up or was today just a good day? [link] [comments]  |
| You are subscribed to email updates from r/StockMarket - Reddit's front page of the stock market, financial news. To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now. | Email delivery powered by Google |
| Google, 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, CA 94043, United States | |
No comments:
Post a Comment