• Breaking News

    Monday, May 18, 2020

    Home Unlabelled Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing

    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing

    May 18, 2020

    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing

    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.

    Posted: 18 May 2020 05:17 AM PDT

    If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions. If you are going to ask how to invest you should include relevant information, such as the following:

    • How old are you?
    • Are you employed/making income? How much?
    • What are your objectives with this money? (buy a house? Retirement savings?)
    • What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
    • What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors?)
    • Any other assets? House paid off? Cars? Expensive significant other?
    • What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
    • Any big debts?
    • Any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer.

    Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq

    Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
    [link] [comments]

    Stock futures tick higher after Fed’s Powell says economy could ‘recover steadily’ later this year

    Posted: 17 May 2020 03:14 PM PDT

    The case that we continue to be in a bull market since the March bottom: part 2.

    Posted: 17 May 2020 06:09 PM PDT

    The bull market will continue. Some data presented below.

    VIRUS FUNDAMENTALS:

    • Percent of tested positive cases continue a downward trend in the US (especially in both Georgia and Texas that opened up weeks ago - where media spreads fear that overall cases have risen but this is due to increased testing. PERCENT POSITIVE is falling https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EYL3LGZX0AEj7Cq?format=png&name=small).
    • MOST CASES are asymptomatic and not detected which is good news for the trend towards herd immunity. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01095-0
    • FORTY PERCENT of deaths have been in ALF and nusring home facilities. NURSING HOME PATIENTS MAKE UP ONLY 0.4% OF THE ENTIRE US POPULATION! 94% of deaths occur in age 50 or above. The working force labor pool remains very well intact.
    • Denmark and Norway cases have not spiked despite reopening schools 3+ weeks ago (despite COVID's incubation period being <14 days). Sweden has done very well staying open (curve has stayed flat/hospital capacity never overwhelmed).
    • Hope for vaccines continue to increase. Of more than 100 vaccines in development globally, at least eight have started testing in humans (lightning fast vs other vaccines in prior epidemics). https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-vaccine-frontrunners-emerge-rollouts-weighed-11589707803?mod=hp_lead_pos1

    CONSUMER DATA

    • Thanks to income equality, the bottom 40% of households comprise 11% of total income in the country. The top 20% hold 52% of total income. Of people working in February, nearly 40% of those with a household income below $40,000 reported a job loss in March.
    • The April jobs report that showed nearly 90% of Americans who had lost a job said they were on temporary layoff.
    • Social distance spending (bars, restaurants, transportation/airfare, cruises, sports, gyms, movies) only comprise $717 billion of the $17 trillion consumer wallet. >90% of spending can remain intact, if no one ever does any of the social distancing activities ever again.
    • Thanks to federal $600/week increase to state unemployment benefits, income for majority of unemployed people is actually higher than when before losing their job.
    • Fiscal policy works, UMich edition: "Confidence inched upward in early May as the CARES relief checks improved consumers' finances and widespread price discounting boosted their buying attitudes." US Univ. Of Michigan Sentiment with surprise rebound in May, P: 73.7 (est 68.0; prev 71.8)
    • Home-Buying Demand Passes Pre-Coronavirus Levels https://www.redfin.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Redfin-Homebuying-Demand-Graph-May-10.jpg

    DON'T FIGHT THE FED

    STOCK INDICATORS

    • AAII sentiment is a great retail sentiment contrarian indicator, which is also clear with r/investing being majority bear. https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey?
      Remember in 2018's correction, sentiment change was very similar to this year's crash; and 12 months later the market had soared (i.e., was great time to be buying stock while majority were scared) http://blog.aaii.com/aaii-sentiment-survey-pessimism-surges-to-a-5%C2%BD-year-high/
    • A good short squeeze set up is happening.
      "The assets sitting in money market mutual funds now totals $4.8 trillion, which equates to around 16% of market cap. On a percentage basis it's not as big as 2008, but it's still a meaningful amount of dry powder earning little & suffering from increasing FOMO." https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EYQiz4TWAAEbPOu?format=jpg&name=small
    • On April 30, Boeing completed the largest bond deal ever not associated with a transaction – they wanted 10 billion, but because there was SO MUCH demand they ended up with a 25 billion issuance, with some bonds that won't even be redeemed for 40 years at 6%. This is all despite the facts of complete collapse of airplane demand and its 737 max scandals, and even despite literally the day prior, Boeing reported a second consecutive quarterly loss and had its credit rating downgraded to a notch above junk status. Bond investors are looking ahead through this crisis.
    • Overall in March 2020, U.S. investment-grade issuance topped $259 billion for a new monthly record and an additional $162.7 billion in April 2020, bested only by March! This means many of these companies have raised enough to insulate themselves through the downturn for up to 12 months.
    • In every recession related crash, markets have ALWAYS bottomed BEFORE initial jobless claims PEAKS. They have ALWAYS bottomed BEFORE consumer sentiment bottoms out. This has very likely already occurred when we saw initial claims peak out at 6.8 million in March, after the Mar 23 stock bottom. https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/charts/united-states-jobless-claims.png?s=ijcusa&v=202005151525V20191105
      https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUycDxXWAAALS64?format=jpg&name=medium

    TECHNICALS

    • Mostly copied from my prior April 10 post: When you look at the 1987, 2002, and 2008-2009 crashes, whenever the stock market had recovered 50% of the losses, it was already well on its way to completing the next high of the new bull market. We have closed above 2792.69 on SPX, and has held solidly. This is clear confirmation that the bottom has already passed. https://imgur.com/a/LsHZCpb
    • And if you also look at the prior crashes, recovery to 50% takes about half the time it took to crash. We fell for six weeks, and now 3 weeks from the march 23 bottom we are already closing in on 50%. It also takes three times the duration of crashing to reach ATH if you look at the prior events- meaning we could be SPX 3300 before September or October.
    • That being said, stocks will remain volatile. No one can predict short term market movements. That's why I'm staying long, continuing to buy stocks and hedging with trading of short term puts. Based on analysis from Robert Sluymer (at 48 minute mark: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBdaJ7OX_3U&t=48m ) which I am going off of: anticipate no greater than 10% correction from the ~2950 SPX recent high, so if stocks drop to the 2600s level, I will go all fucking in at buying that dip.

    TAKE AWAY:

    • Remember. Stock markets always always always always bottoms out BEFORE the bad data bottoms out. Do not look at data today and try to 'price' the market at where we are TODAY. Try to price today's market at what you think it will be in the future. Markets. Are. Forward. Looking.
    • Uncertainty does NOT always mean 'stocks have to keep going down'. It only means 'expect volatility'.
    submitted by /u/cefpodoxime
    [link] [comments]

    Moderna reports ‘positive’ data on early-stage coronavirus vaccine trial

    Posted: 18 May 2020 05:00 AM PDT

    Alibaba's Jack Ma resigns from SoftBank board

    Posted: 17 May 2020 06:57 PM PDT

    https://business.financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/alibabas-jack-ma-resigns-from-softbank-board-2

    In light of the recent negative press on investments in WeWork, Uber, and Oyo, Jack Ma has decided to leave the board of Softbank after being one of the longest tenured board member, ~13 years.

    submitted by /u/nonoplsyoufirst
    [link] [comments]

    Hertz in a World of Hurt

    Posted: 17 May 2020 04:35 PM PDT

    They managed for their short term bonuses:

    " In 2016, Hertz spun off its construction equipment rental business, and while the company raised $2 billion and paid down some debt, it bought back $400 million in shares at that time, Pickett noted.

    "When times were good, instead of paying down debt and beefing up savings, Hertz went out and bought back their own stock, so they basically paid themselves bonuses, which is why they are in this pickle."

    https://www.freightwaves.com/news/analysts-see-major-impacts-on-auto-industry-from-hertzs-possible-bankruptcy

    submitted by /u/gjwmbb
    [link] [comments]

    Why PE more than 100 is normal this days?

    Posted: 18 May 2020 03:47 AM PDT

    I'm talking about big and known companies that already has a maximal share of their market, just without saying names.
    The meaning of PE more than 100, that company will need 100 years or more to buy it shares back.
    It is insane valuation for companies that couldn't grow so much, and no any explanation could be good enough.

    But it becomes normal, people's perception don't get alerted about it. They really in full attention discus buying the shares and what companies future will be.

    I think it will ends up very bad for this folks,
    What do you think?

    submitted by /u/A_nilsen
    [link] [comments]

    Can we just have a sticky thread for airlines at this point?

    Posted: 17 May 2020 02:02 PM PDT

    Everyday on the front page for the past 2 months, all I see are airline threads.

    "Which airline should I invest in" Luv. The answer is always luv 9/10 times.

    It gets old, fuck.

    Also the ONLY reason airlines were at an all time high a year ago was from companies doing stock buy backs which were driving up their prices.

    In other words, airlines are very bad to invest in.

    submitted by /u/Yossi25
    [link] [comments]

    Sorrento Therapeutics ($SRNE ) finds a Corona antibody that blocks viral infection 100% - stock jumps over 150%.

    Posted: 17 May 2020 06:45 AM PDT

    Brookfield Asset Management (BAM)

    Posted: 18 May 2020 01:00 AM PDT

    Been looking at this stock on my watchlist for a while now. I love that they've merged with Oaktree as well since I already follow Howard Marks and his memo's and overall investing advice.

    Since the pandemic the stock has been hit pretty hard just like many many others. There is one thing I've noticed as I have been studying it, especially now that 13F's are coming from many portfolio managers. HUGE stake increases by a ton of value investors. Most upwards of 50-70% share count change in their filings, some being already large positions, and that was on the way down...and the stock is currently back on that trajectory if not further then where most of these investors were buying.

    Thoughts on BAM at current levels? I have no stake in it currently but I'm planning on starting a position here sooner rather then later.

    submitted by /u/Opeth4Lyfe
    [link] [comments]

    Can anyone explain what is happening with ACB ?

    Posted: 18 May 2020 06:56 AM PDT

    I've been on this stock for almost two years, nothing but loses. Out of nowhere they do a reverse split and they are sky rocketing from .80c to $15.

    submitted by /u/sokolpl
    [link] [comments]

    An interesting video for anyone interested in Harley Davidson

    Posted: 17 May 2020 04:07 PM PDT

    Any argument against BRK.B?

    Posted: 17 May 2020 05:37 PM PDT

    BRK.B is almost at a 52 week low. I'm considering buying a few shares with the intent of holding long term.The company hasn't had it's best year but they are well diversified and are solid. They have enough cash to make good acquisitions that could pay off in the future. Is there any argument to not buy? I'm I missing something?

    submitted by /u/accountingsavage10
    [link] [comments]

    Who is buying stocks right now and what arguments are there (I am not seeing)?

    Posted: 18 May 2020 05:46 AM PDT

    Economic productivity was already decreasing in Q4/2019 and until 05/2020 it became evident how many people have/had jobs that are basically "easily disposable"? The Corona-Crisis actually only brought that to our attention.

    Is there something I am not seeing here? What am I missing? How in the world is this right now becoming a Bull-Market?

    submitted by /u/thegoldseb
    [link] [comments]

    Opinions on Edwards Lifesciences NYSE: EW

    Posted: 18 May 2020 12:48 AM PDT

    I have enjoyed an almost 300% increase in NYSE:EW but I am not sure where the company will go from now. The critical care portfolio ist stable, I don't see much growth potential in the TAVR space (also now with 2-3 competitors), the TMVR space has growth potential but really nothing that can be implemented and brought to the market within 2-3 years.

    ​

    Sell and take the 300% or wait it out?

    submitted by /u/TomETF
    [link] [comments]

    Walmart earnings call on Tuesday morning

    Posted: 17 May 2020 08:04 PM PDT

    How's everybody feeling about this WMT earnings call premarket on the 19th?

    I feel like Walmart is one of those companies that has been thriving in this environment and the Expected EPS feels a bit low to me.

    I'm considering selling all my oil stock tomorrow and putting it all on Walmart for the call.

    submitted by /u/rockstarnights
    [link] [comments]

    Does anybody know where to find Analyst EPS Estimates for prior years?

    Posted: 18 May 2020 01:22 AM PDT

    I'm not only looking for the consensus, but all the estimates that were made.

    If nothing else, would you know where to get the low analyst eps estimates (even up to 5/10 years)? I'm pretty sure yahoo finance used to show them before they updated their site a few years back.

    submitted by /u/KillianF09
    [link] [comments]

    I made a spreadsheet to value a stock based on discounted cash flow...

    Posted: 17 May 2020 11:46 AM PDT

    For those fundamental investors like me who like to invest in companies that are undervalued, it can be helpful to consider a company's valuation based on its discounted cash flow (DCF).

    Essentially, I consider a company's discounted cash flow based on its 10-year projected operating cash flow (also called cash flow from operations) and your preferred discount rate.

    I created a spreadsheet that can calculate for you the intrinsic price per share of a company's stock based on its operating cash flow and the discount rate. It also calculates the discount of the stock price relative to this intrinsic value.

    To use it, simply download the spreadsheet here. It is available in ODS (OpenDocument) format because I hate proprietary formats, and it should be usable in Excel, etc. Once you download it, simply fill in the boxes in with red labels based on the company's financial statements. You can find these values on SEC EDGAR or simply by looking on Yahoo Finance. You should also fill in the discount rate and the company's projected growth rates based on your assumptions, but analyst opinions can sometimes help with this.

    One thing I like about my spreadsheet is it will calculate the company's intrinsic stock price based on these projected cash flows and tell you whether or not a company is over- or under-valued at its current market price, as well as the percentage discount (on my spreadsheet, a positive discount represents that the current price is trading at less than its intrinsic value).

    I hope this helps everyone!

    submitted by /u/RadicalEggroll
    [link] [comments]

    Engineering Money - A podcast about the market, by Engineers.

    Posted: 17 May 2020 05:28 PM PDT

    I stumbled across this podcast, and it looks like they are just starting out because its a little rough, but theres some pretty good content for the end of the week.

    https://open.spotify.com/episode/2ijig6vyQTYKgB5jDZ9hi9?si=fAlf8GXZTmeueWmXjeAz-w

    submitted by /u/ImNotAStabbinHobo
    [link] [comments]

    Questions on USO

    Posted: 18 May 2020 02:16 AM PDT

    Does anyone know where I can find USO's original contract buy prices at? I tried looking at http://www.uscfinvestments.com/holdings/uso but it seems like the chart is tracking the current valuations of the contracts they bought and not the prices they originally bought them at. Am I just unable to find that data or something?

    Also, hypothetically assuming oil prices continue to rise to $40-$50/barrel over the coming months, USO's stock price would continue to rise as they profit off of their laddered contracts they bought at cheaper prices, correct?

    submitted by /u/GamerDrew13
    [link] [comments]

    Oil price speculation for the forthcoming months

    Posted: 18 May 2020 02:08 AM PDT

    Hello!

    I managed to buy a variety of oil bull certs at a good spot. They've gone up nicely and now I regret not buying more.

    I recall reading lots of speculation that during May and June, the price would go down again due to tankers reaching US and other oversupply issues although others report this has already happened.

    What do you think is the situation with price in the coming months?

    submitted by /u/sprgsml
    [link] [comments]

    Question about Jerome Powell's comment on negative interest rate during CBS interview.

    Posted: 17 May 2020 05:31 PM PDT

    This was taken from the full transcript: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/full-transcript-fed-chair-jerome-powell-60-minutes-interview-economic-recovery-from-coronavirus-pandemic/

    PELLEY: In the early days of the crisis in this boardroom, you and the committee lowered interest rates essentially to zero. Would you lower them further into negative territory, which the president has suggested is a good idea?

    POWELL: So around this table during the last crisis and during the recovery, we looked at negative interest rates. And it's something we decided not to do. We used other tools instead. And those tools involved forward guidance about the federal funds rate and also lots of asset purchases or quantitative easing as it's often referred to.

    I continue to think, and my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee continue to think that negative interest rates is probably not an appropriate or useful policy for us here in the United States.

    PELLEY: And why not? The President seems to think it would help.

    POWELL: The evidence on whether it helps is quite mixed. And the issue is people would be depositing money in the bank and that money would be shrinking. They'd be paying interest to put their money in the bank. So it's not a particularly popular policy, as you can imagine.

    But in addition, it can also tend to depress the profitability of banks, which makes them likely to lend less, which weighs on economic growth. So I would just say it's not at all settled in, you know, in economic analysis that negative rates really add much value.

    PELLEY: I think the idea of negative interest rates is something that a lot of people have a difficult time getting their head around. Would you explain it to me?

    POWELL: Well, rather than being paid interest on your cash, you pay interest to the bank -- or if you borrow money, they pay you to borrow money. And if you lend them money by putting it in a bank, then they pay you money.

    PELLEY: So the banks would pay people to borrow money, essentially?

    POWELL: Yes.

    PELLEY: And that would conceivably cause more business and commerce to happen?

    POWELL: It would. But, you know, this has been tried. We have negative policy rates in many countries around the world as a result of the financial crisis. And there's no clear finding that it actually does support economic activity on net. And it introduces distortions into the financial system, which I think offset that.

    There're plenty of people who think negative interest rates are a good policy. But we don't really think so at the Federal Reserve. And I think it's an area of real uncertainty in the central banking world.

    =======break

    I don't quite get what he said here 'Well, rather than being paid interest on your cash, you pay interest to the bank -- or if you borrow money, they pay you to borrow money. And if you lend them money by putting it in a bank, then they pay you money.'

    So there are 3 parts here:

    1. Rather than being paid interest on your cash, you pay interest to the bank

    2. Or if you borrow money, they pay you to borrow money.

    3. And if you lend them money by putting it in a bank, then they pay you money.

    So the first 2 parts are coherent in logic, but the third point, if you lend the bank money by putting it in the bank, shouldn't you pay them interest, as suggested by the first 2 points?

    What am i missing here?

    submitted by /u/utterdisrespect
    [link] [comments]

    What stocks are you waiting to buy until another large dip?

    Posted: 17 May 2020 02:23 PM PDT

    I'm trying to snag DIS for under $100.

    submitted by /u/Homefront325
    [link] [comments]

    Do Y'all think that ACB is overvalued?

    Posted: 18 May 2020 07:00 AM PDT

    It's Trying Times for the US Auto Suppliers as Plants Reopen - the Industry Needs at Least $20 Billion

    Posted: 17 May 2020 05:25 PM PDT
    Read more
    at

    No comments:

    Post a Comment