Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing |
- Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.
- Trump to pull, not allow federal retirement money to be invested in Chinese equities
- Goldman Says Stocks Due for 18% Drop After Rally Driven by FOMO
- Google Trends for searches like 'Stocks' and 'How to Buy Stocks' indicate retail investment interest is at an all time high since 2004
- Sharing my Google Sheets "Investment Tracker"
- Are low cost Index Funds the easiest and most boring ways to make money in the long run(25+ years)?
- Aren't most sectors aside from tech, performing like how would it would be expected during a recession?
- Fed starts buying corporate bond ETFs
- The beauty of Short Selling
- “Invest and forget” Does John Bogle’s policy for low cost Index Funds still apply in the long run even now?
- This sounds ridiculous, but if you bought equal value amounts of both VIXM (vix mid term futures) and SVXY (x0.5 inverse vix), you would make money right now no matter what point you bought them at.
- Cool podcasts from Morgan Stanley: Mike Wilson
- Economic recovery will be a swoosh not a V.
- US Data Tracker - JPMorgan - Eye on the Market
- Best resources for learning analyst concepts?
- STORE Capital To Join SP MidCap 400
- FDA grants emergency use authorization to Abbott Labs' new coronavirus antibody test
- Why not stop loss all buys?
- Tech Stocks: Too Late to Buy?
- $SNAP Daily Active Users up 20%
- Webjet Australia
- Analysis of ITC Stock (India)
- What is the bond markets telling you?
| Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Posted: 11 May 2020 05:17 AM PDT If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions. If you are going to ask how to invest you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  |
| Trump to pull, not allow federal retirement money to be invested in Chinese equities Posted: 11 May 2020 06:42 PM PDT "President Trump is moving to cut investment ties between U.S. federal retirement funds and Chinese equities, FOX Business has learned in a move that is tied to the handling of COVID 19. In the first letter written Monday, obtained exclusively by FOX Business, national security adviser Robert O'Brien and National Economic Council Chair Larry Kudlow write to U.S. Labor Secretary Eugene Scalia stating that the White House does not want the Thrift Savings Plan, which is a federal employee retirement fund, to have money invested in Chinese equities." [link] [comments]  |
| Goldman Says Stocks Due for 18% Drop After Rally Driven by FOMO Posted: 11 May 2020 03:23 PM PDT In the equity market, fear of missing out seems to be overshadowing fear of all that's wrong with the economy. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says pessimism will soon get the upper hand and send the S&P 500 Index down almost 20% in the next three months. Fiscal and monetary support over the past few weeks of the coronavirus pandemic successfully warded off a financial crisis, but a return to economic normalcy is still a long ways away and investors have gotten ahead of themselves, the bank's chief U.S. equity strategist, David Kostin, wrote in a report. Financial, economic and political risks darken the outlook for domestic equities, Goldman warns. The bank cites the lack of flattening in the U.S. infection curve outside of New York, what promises to be a lengthy re-start process, a 50% hit to buybacks in 2020 and the risk of higher corporate taxes and de facto consumption taxes if U.S.-China trade tensions bubble up again. "A single catalyst may not spark a pullback, but a number of concerns and risks exist that we believe, and our client discussions confirm, investors are downplaying," Kostin wrote. Goldman says the S&P 500 will probably drop to 2,400 over the next three months before it rebounds to 3,000 by year end. The index slumped 0.5% Monday to 2,914 as of 9:45 a.m. in New York. Kostin notes that large swaths of the investor community have failed to cash in on the S&P 500's 31% surge since its trough on March 23. He points out that most mutual funds have underperformed since the bear market low, with long/short and macro hedge funds posting single-digit returns as a group, and investors may face pressure to chase the rally. "The 'fear of missing out' best describes the thought process," Kostin said. Futures positioning shows investors still doubt S&P 500 rebound But he warns that it's a risky move. Even with measures of the breadth of the recent rally improving in recent days -- potentially signaling more buy-in on the idea the gains will last -- Goldman Sachs' sentiment indicator has barely improved since mid-March. "Skepticism abounds regarding the likelihood the rally will continue," the strategist writes. relates to Goldman Says Stocks Due for 18% Drop After Rally Driven by FOMO Kostin is pessimistic on the outlook for corporate profits, citing frozen growth plans and capital expenditures will drop 27% this year. He points out that the only encouraging driver for earnings is the swelling federal deficit, which in effect acts as substantial support for demand. Caution on equities may also be warranted in the face of stretched valuations -- to the extent that anything about 2021's bottom-line outlook can be discerned. The benchmark U.S. stock gauge trades at 19.5 times the buy side's estimate of next year's earnings, Kostin concludes, the highest level since 2002. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 11 May 2020 06:59 AM PDT |
| Sharing my Google Sheets "Investment Tracker" Posted: 11 May 2020 10:43 PM PDT Hey guys, I've started using Google Sheets (rather than Excel) to track my investments and created a handy little tool to monitor their performance. There's also an asset allocation tab which provides a decent summary of your overall portfolio. It's far from perfect, but hopefully you guys find it useful. If you have any suggestions or make any helpful modifications I haven't thought about, please share! Click File --> Make a Copy to edit your own. https://drive.google.com/open?id=1i1wdmZWP22AEGZSThSl7iU0AF3GlsFmOZqhr8Q0lIVg [link] [comments]  |
| Are low cost Index Funds the easiest and most boring ways to make money in the long run(25+ years)? Posted: 11 May 2020 09:59 PM PDT Between 1990-2019; S&P 500 gave returns of 11.47% including dividends. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 11 May 2020 08:19 AM PDT Airline sector, finance sector, energy sectors, industrials have taken a beating. Even BRK.B, is down 24% from ATH. We all know Tech is powering on and leading the market upwards. But any conversations about airlines, energy etc is very negative. Talk like "the travel industry may never recover". I wasn't an adult during 2008 but I imagine there was similar talk about how things would never recover yet they did. I'm sure there was plenty of talk about how real estate would never be the same again. What are your thoughts? Exclude tech from the conversation and we're looking at -20% across a lot of sectors. Could this be a big opportunity? [link] [comments]  |
| Fed starts buying corporate bond ETFs Posted: 12 May 2020 02:44 AM PDT There is apparently this news today, which main bulletpoints are following:
I suppose in current uncertain macro environment, community would appreciate a lot, if someone who knows more about bond markets could possibly try to evaluate how this milestone of a step could influence equities for example. How likely is it that somewhere down the line they will also start buying equity ETFs? Is it reasonable to feel even angry, that FED is apparently also going for high-yield bonds, which in my simple mind at least means, that those who took on greater risk and therefore were rewarded with high yielding rates in return of taking on the risk, now basically get somewhat of a bailout? r/investing, what are your thoughts on this particular news? I also just happened to recall, that yesterday was news with the following headline: "Fed has made corporate-bond market 'too big to fail,' says Guggenheim's Minerd" [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 11 May 2020 06:18 PM PDT You know, I always used to consider short selling unAmerican, betting against the economy etc etc. but I'm young enough to where this is really one of my first big downturns, and I definitely didn't give a fuck in 2008. And I've noticed something really important: The fact that there is an avenue to short sale and make money when there's a downturn, means that we literally have hordes of smart people actively researching every possible flaw in the current market outlook, trying to predict all kinds of worst case scenarios, and even if they're wrong, seems like they're providing a great service to the market and keeping us from developing a herd mentality which would make us blindsided if shit didn't go well next few months. So to all you bears out there: sorry for all the -99% red days you have had but damn it if I don't respect you. Keep buying those puts and I'm sure for like one month this year you'll be driving a lambo while I'm crying into my KFC bucket. 🇺🇲🇺🇲 Hell that's how the kennedys made their money, it's the American way. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 11 May 2020 10:01 PM PDT Is picking Index Funds less risky and easier way to become more wealthy than picking individual stocks or choosing active funds? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 11 May 2020 01:46 PM PDT Simultaneously going long and short on VIX sounds like a guaranteed recipe for a loss via decay, yet miraculously the math works out if you picked the right ETFs for the job. SVXY and VIXM are vix ETFs that have comparatively lower leverage and volatility which give them some of the lowest amounts of decay relative to other vix ETFs. Today May 8 SVXY: 35.35, VIXM: 37.64 If you bought $5000 of both last Monday May 4 when SVXY: 31.93, VIXM: 41.68, you would have ~156.59 shares of SVXY and ~119.96 shares of VIXM which would be worth $10054.29 today. If you bought $5000 of both on the March 23rd bottom when SVXY: 30.25, VIXM: 39.74, you would have ~165.29 shares of SVXY and ~125.82 shares of VIXM which would be worth $10578.87 today. If you bought $5000 of both on Feb 19 right before the crash when SVXY: 67.66, VIXM: 20.10, you would have ~73.89 shares of SVXY and ~248.75 shares of VIXM which would be worth $11974.96 today. I do not know if this strategy will continue working, but so far it's remained slowly but consistently profitable regardless of market conditions. Edit: This strategy would have made money if you did it at any time after Feb 5, 2018. Before that, SVXY was at ~500 and plummeted to ~43. Perhaps the same thing could happen. Perhaps not. [link] [comments]  |
| Cool podcasts from Morgan Stanley: Mike Wilson Posted: 11 May 2020 10:07 PM PDT Here's a podcast I listen to often: https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/thoughts-on-the-market-wilson. He's very knowledgeable and he called the march crash and the april rally. I respect him more than Kostin from Goldman. [link] [comments]  |
| Economic recovery will be a swoosh not a V. Posted: 11 May 2020 02:59 PM PDT Until recently, many policy makers and corporate executives were hoping for a V-shaped economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic: a short, sharp collapse followed by a bounce back to pre-virus levels of activity. Now, however, they expect a "swoosh" recovery. Named after the Nike logo, it predicts a large drop followed by a painfully slow recovery, with many Western economies, including the U.S. and Europe, not back to 2019 levels of output until late next year—or beyond. The sobering new view reflects the depth of the contraction now being recorded for the spring, as well as more evidence that soaring joblessness and months or years of social distancing—particularly in the West—will depress economic activity well into next year. "This is not going to be a quick recovery," said Mark Schneider, chief executive of Nestlé SA, the world's biggest packaged foods maker, recently. "This is going to be a several-quarter, if not several-year kind of process." Are you comfortable with current valuations if it takes 24-36 months to return to current GDP levels? [link] [comments]  |
| US Data Tracker - JPMorgan - Eye on the Market Posted: 11 May 2020 05:16 PM PDT https://www.jpmorgan.com/jpmpdf/1320748511784.pdf Great data provided by JP Morgan. I found the US Data Tracker on pg 3 the most interesting. We are in the very early stages of reopening, but data like this will help provide guidance around what sectors of the economy may bounce back quicker than others. [link] [comments]  |
| Best resources for learning analyst concepts? Posted: 12 May 2020 03:30 AM PDT An example would be something like: revenue is increasing but units sold are constant which means its ASPs that are increasing. What are the best resources where analysts talk about stuff like that? Or are there books? I mean if there were a book that literally laid out all common analyst concepts that way, I'd buy it in a heartbeat. [link] [comments]  |
| STORE Capital To Join SP MidCap 400 Posted: 11 May 2020 06:47 PM PDT If STORE is being added to SP MIDCAP 400 Could that be seen as good news for it? Obv you still have to do your research on the company etc. but just being added to a index that should be good news right? [link] [comments]  |
| FDA grants emergency use authorization to Abbott Labs' new coronavirus antibody test Posted: 11 May 2020 08:38 AM PDT
What's up folks, $ABT seems to have risen from its bottom of $89.5 and is trending up at the moment. Accuracy is spot on, that article from April seems to have been disproved. Will see widespread use by other companies and firms by June and beyond I think. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 11 May 2020 06:48 PM PDT I use Schwab and it offers free trades. Why shouldn't I just stop loss all my trades with a limit. Can't I just buy again when it is below my original buy price? Am I missing something? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 11 May 2020 04:00 PM PDT Many blue chip tech stocks or in the S&P 500 are getting close to their AH (pre-COVID-19). Is it worth buying more shares now or later? Some shares are trading on average volume or more than average volume (AMD, NVDA, AAPL, MSFT) which may show some stability. I held off buying for the past month or so due to worrying about instability, but every week tech/SPY has gone up and the overall market still hasn't fully recovered. I'm beating myself up for not buying at the lows and even sold some shares at the "bottom", losing potential gains (at least no losses). What's your guys plan? Buy now or wait til fall/winter for possible second wave of COVID and re-elections? [link] [comments]  |
| $SNAP Daily Active Users up 20% Posted: 11 May 2020 11:25 PM PDT Could this mean SNAP is on track to be one of the next social media giants? Isn't this how Facebook and Twitter started? Any thought? Considering making a sizeable investment at only $18 a share... [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 11 May 2020 11:21 PM PDT Thoughts on Webjet now as restrictions begin to be lifted? Currently at $3.25AUD. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 11 May 2020 11:14 PM PDT ITC is the largest cigarette manufacturer in India, accounting for roughly 85 percent market share in the legal cigarettes market in the country. ITC's profit growth 10 years CAGR is 11.7% (compared to ~6% for Godfrey Phillips). They are in the midst of an expansion into FMCG which is where the growth opportunity is in India. Our analysis deals with the following parts of ITC's business:
Hope its a good read for everyone! [link] [comments]  |
| What is the bond markets telling you? Posted: 12 May 2020 01:23 AM PDT How distorted has the bond market become after FEDs intervention last month, in fact for the past 12 years? Silly question, but last March's intervention was monster. What kind of moral hazard do we see? IMO, The level of QE has drowned any signals from the bond market and this means that other asset classes at distorted too, which could explain why a lot of people hate the recent bull run. But, it's obvious when you look at the FED's relentless buying and how they are intent to manufacturd easy financial conditions. Also are the conventional views of how financial markets function a thing of the past such as the purist investor school of thought when we have perm intervention from CBs. Is it fair to say price discovery has vanished and the CB is the market now? CBs have successfully removed the bridge between the real economy vs asset pricing. [link] [comments]  |
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