Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion Wednesday - Apr 08, 2020 |
- r/Stocks Daily Discussion Wednesday - Apr 08, 2020
- Heads up on CCL!
- Why is Sixflags stock going up when the park is closed? Why is Hertz rental car going up when no one is traveling / renting cars? Why is disney going up when both parks, studio, cruise is closed? Why is United Airline going up when they're on the verge of bankruptcy.
- I give up
- Here is what we are staring in the face right now....
- We should expect another supply shock and another sell off, though not to the extent of the initial crash.
- So is that it? Are we just going to keep going up?
- Selling most if not all my stocks
- Stock watch List April 8, 2020
- Disney shares jump more than 6% as Disney+ subscriptions pass 50 million
- Generally, do you expect stocks to fall once earnings are announced?
- CNBC: Here's what you should know before the market opens.
- Moleculin Biotech (MBRX) announced a drug that reduced the virus that causes COVID-19 by 100%.
- Thoughts on BYND long or short?
- Question about huge volume at 3:50
- TSLA Furloughing Workers
- Anyone hoping for the market to go down further?
- Will a failed oil deal be catastrophic?
- ELI5 what a wash sale is?
- I believe strongly that corporate debt default numbers will be extremely high in the coming months. Best recommendations on what to buy to capitalize on that?
- What bubbles are about to pop?
- question about past prices
- Data for Gilead’s potential coronavirus therapy are coming soon. Here’s what you need to know.
- Anyone noticing volume spikes pre and post market?
| r/Stocks Daily Discussion Wednesday - Apr 08, 2020 Posted: 08 Apr 2020 01:07 AM PDT These daily discussions run from Monday to Friday including during our themed posts. Some helpful links:
If you have a basic question, for example "what is EPS," then google "investopedia EPS" and click the investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned. Please discuss your portfolios in the Rate My Portfolio sticky.. See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 08 Apr 2020 08:35 AM PDT Heads up guys - I just bought in on CCL so in about 1-4 hours you guys should all get a great deal on Carnival when it eats all my money [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 08 Apr 2020 11:25 AM PDT What the fuck? I always thought stocks were based on how well the company is doing now / in the near future. 6 flags should be going significantly down for missing spring break, grad night, summer passes and so on. I can't name a single human who has any plans of going to 6 flags this year at all, yet they're up 6 percent today with park closure. Am I missing something here? How am I suppose to research safe companies to invest in, when there are literal places closed rallying up each morning? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 08 Apr 2020 11:31 AM PDT I bought puts on SPY and now I'm -90% down on my portfolio. I've lost everything. I'm crying right now. I am so stupid for betting against the Fed. I give up. I am liquidating the remainder of my portfolio. It's over. I'm putting what's leftover into index funds. At least index funds can't blow up. [link] [comments]  |
| Here is what we are staring in the face right now.... Posted: 08 Apr 2020 10:30 AM PDT I made the below post as a reply in one of the threads and i got replies asking to make a separate thread to have discussion. So here it is.... Here's what we're staring in the face right now...... SP500 companys have been in an earnings contraction for 7 quarters YoY now. PMI indicators (and many others) have been in a downward trend since 2018 GDP growth has been in a downward trend since late 2018, that's when the market disconnected from the "real economy" Bond markets all over the world began approaching crisis levels long before the virus default rates and debt higher than in 2007 Record Govt/Corporate/Consumer Debt....levels higher than 2007-8....with defaults rising. 7 Million Americans are 90+ day behind on the automobile payments (Auto Loan Bubble) This is PRIOR to the mandatory global lockdowns. Federal Reserve has "pumped" 40-100B *DAILY* this year into the financial markets thru REPO operations to keep this bubble propped up.....and Powell sat before congress two weeks ago and basically told them he was "running out of bullets" to keep this thing propped up. Today they pumped the highest all year 169Billion, yesterday 83B 3 day totol before that 330Billion (This is before they upped it to a Trillion a day recently during the meltdown) 25% of US GDP is govt spending (ie 1.1 trillion in debt), (Again, this prior to the Feb/March meltdown, and now we have a 2trillion "stimulus" package) Corporate Debt now makes up 47% of our GDP.and deliquincies are rising ...it's why the bond market is in crisis. BBB's should rated "junk" at this point, and the smart money knows it. (Since the meltdown began, Credit Default Swaps have skyrocketed globally, smart money is betting on it to collapse at this point) Consumer Debt now sits at 14 Trillion (it was 13 Trillion in 2007-8)...and defaults are rising OIl/Nat Gas sector 600B-1T in debt (most of it subprime) and on the verge of collapse, they need oil at 70barrel to "break even", oils at 31barrel....layoffs began about 2 months ago, Halliburton, Apache oil, etc etc Only 10% of the sector is "cash positive", and only 5 shale co's can break even at 31barrel. This will affect slaughter regional banks when this pops, which is why the bailouts are inbound......JP Morgan holds something like 196B worth of "subprime" loans in the energy sector. A 1.5 QUADRILLION dollar atomic bomb in the derivatives market... Baltic Dry Index in crisis since September of last year. Copper has been in a downward trend since Dec 2017 14 Straight months of contraction in the Shipping/Freight/Transportation sector....with more than 450 Trucking companies closing shop or filing bankruptcy in 2019 Here's some perspective. US Real GDP growth hasn't seen 3%+ since 2005 (even with bailouts and QE1-2-3-4), during the Great Depression of the 1930's, the US saw 5 years of 3%+ Real GDP growth....I keep hearing how strong the economy is....it's so strong we needed 3 rate cuts in 2019, $600B of QE4 since last October, Trillions injected into Financial Markets monthly through REPO operations since last October, emergency 50bp cut, aiming for negative rates like Europe/Japan, now a stimulus package, probably a bailout, and a payroll tax cut....got it. The Virus is just the pin that popped the bubble......and the dominoes are now starting to fall...several were already falling prior to the virus 219 CEO's from the SP500 Co's cashed out and split in 2019...saw the writing on the wall. Those numbers haven't been seen since.....yep 2007-8. On the bright side, at least we can take comfort in the fact that all these low interest rates have allowed corporations to prepare for a potential crisis and reduce their debt holdings instead of just adding more debt and blowing tax cut benefits on a bunch of buybacks at historic valuations. Oh, wait..... Business cycles matter...at this point in the business cycle, these companies should have their debt at extreme lows, and cash at extreme highs to be prepared for the economic downturn......oooops....they're not....this is going to be a bloodbath before it's all said and done......and I see a hard reset.....just one mans opinion, but if you peel back the onion with everything I've said, you'll find it to be truth. I will post my thoughts on the virus in another thread. Some people asked for citations....most of the info that i posted can be verified via google search. many of the data that i posted can be pulled from public domains: https://tradingeconomics.com/ and https://fred.stlouisfed.org/ [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 08 Apr 2020 06:40 AM PDT Mexico is shutting down all nonessential businesses and requiring employers to pay their workers salaries and benefits. It's a huge hit for the automotive industry. I'm not sure what other industries will be hit as hard, but there are a lot of part suppliers in Mexico. It has already trickled down into the company I work for. They have furloughed most employees and given pay cuts to those who were not furloughed. We didn't expect it because we are essential (automotive OEM supplier). So, not only are Mexican businesses going to go out of business because they have to foot the bill for their employees' salaries, but US industry will be hurt as well. China's shutdown caused the first supply shock, I think Mexico should cause a second supply shock, but not to the same extent because we don't rely on Mexico as much as China. [link] [comments]  |
| So is that it? Are we just going to keep going up? Posted: 08 Apr 2020 09:17 AM PDT Many people here seemed convinced of another dip, but it sure doesn't seem that way. [link] [comments]  |
| Selling most if not all my stocks Posted: 08 Apr 2020 11:17 AM PDT So after buying at a dip a few weeks ago I have built up quite a bit of stock over the past few days. Today I am selling most of it, I can't possibly believe that this is the bottom and if it is I made a profit I would have been extremely happy with 1 month ago. Who else is taking this day, or perhaps tommorow / friday to get rid of most of their portfolio? [link] [comments]  |
| Stock watch List April 8, 2020 Posted: 08 Apr 2020 05:55 AM PDT Good Morning, here's my watch list Gap Ups: APT, EFC, MYO, NLY, NVAX, PINS, TLRY Gap Downs: BABA, BIDU, GSX, IQ, TAL, W Looks like the market is setting up for an inside day, Very few gappers and almost no stocks with catalyst which doesn't give us good odds. I am not a fan of the watch list today. I mentioned yesterday that the 272 pivot should act as resistance and it did, we saw a sell off at that level. Now the SPY is sitting in between the 272 pivot and the weekly 200 sma. Ideally we would like to see some basing action for a few days before a break higher over the 272 pivot, will we get that, will the market drop more or continue? This is the question that is on everyone's minds. Alcoa kicks of earnings season in less than 2 weeks and things should start moving again as earnings should bring new catalyst into the market. Until then, patience is your friend, odds are not in our favor today so be careful and only take good trades with defined risk/reward in mind before entering into any positions. Good luck trading. Feel free to check out my trading community r/kant_sleep13 [link] [comments]  |
| Disney shares jump more than 6% as Disney+ subscriptions pass 50 million Posted: 08 Apr 2020 02:47 PM PDT Disney announced on Wednesday that Disney+, its new video service, now has more than 50 million subscribers. That's almost twice as many as Disney reported on February 4, when it said in its Q1 earnings that Disney+ reached 26.5 million subscribers during the quarter. Disney+ rolled out in the U.K, Ireland, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Austria and Switzerland in the past two weeks, the company said. It also launched in India last week. [link] [comments]  |
| Generally, do you expect stocks to fall once earnings are announced? Posted: 08 Apr 2020 09:40 AM PDT Do you expect stocks to fall once earnings are announced OR do you think poor earnings is fully and already priced into the market? If you believe the latter then do you think stocks prices will generally remain the same or go up? For context here are some stocks I am interested in regarding this: AAPL, SHOP, ISRG, V, FB, MSFT, SYF, NVDA My thoughts: Even though poor earnings are priced in, I still feel like things would go down once the poor results become a reality for a good portion of the market. I feel like it is easy to say it is priced in but once you see exactly how much companies are losing/have lost, I feel like things would go down. I'm fairly new to the market though so I could be wrong. Thanks for the input in advance! [link] [comments]  |
| CNBC: Here's what you should know before the market opens. Posted: 08 Apr 2020 02:30 PM PDT Anyone else getting that link 3hrs after the market opens? 😆 Do you think its useful information? [link] [comments]  |
| Moleculin Biotech (MBRX) announced a drug that reduced the virus that causes COVID-19 by 100%. Posted: 08 Apr 2020 08:19 AM PDT https://finance.yahoo.com/news/moleculin-biotech-doubles-pre-market-124813764.html They are up almost 200% today. Does anyone know enough about virus treatments to tell me if this is really a cure or is it just a flash in the pan (works on mice!) type of deal? What are the next set of hurdles for getting to market? [link] [comments]  |
| Thoughts on BYND long or short? Posted: 08 Apr 2020 01:01 PM PDT Considering scooping shares of BYND possible short term (over summer) to perhaps long term (next summer)assuming everything is somewhat normal in public places Before the coronavirus forced eateries to close down, they had a very good summer standing during 2019 And they crushed their earnings to close out the year and their reported debt wasn't too too worrisome Would this be something to look towards or are food industry stocks right now too risky as social distancing has basically put an end to any dining out for the foreseeable future [link] [comments]  |
| Question about huge volume at 3:50 Posted: 08 Apr 2020 12:55 PM PDT I'm fairly new to this game. I'm seriously wondering what causes the large increase in volume daily at 3:50 on SPY? Rebalancing every day? Thanks! [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 08 Apr 2020 05:46 AM PDT They expect to be "back to normal" first week of May, but reading between the lines, I would assume this is based on a lack of orders coming in right now. Any thoughts as to what impact this will have on the stock in the short term? (Today, next week) [link] [comments]  |
| Anyone hoping for the market to go down further? Posted: 07 Apr 2020 08:48 PM PDT I'm in the red like 5% for the year and I'm collecting dividends. Let's say the market goes down some more, then let's say I'm red like 10% or 15% for the year. These numbers just don't seem big to me. I get being down 50%; that's a huge loss but there are years when the market is up well over 10%. So I really just don't care. Seems like a good oppurtunity to buy. I'm actually hoping it goes down further. This coronavirus situation will eventually go away and humanity will progress. [link] [comments]  |
| Will a failed oil deal be catastrophic? Posted: 08 Apr 2020 01:32 PM PDT I may be wrong but i feel like this weeks rally has something to do with the oil deal happening on thursday. It has caused oil stocks to surge upward which I feel like has caused the market to rally. Tomorrow is a BIG day, if the deal goes through I predict the market to be somewhat stable but not an overwhelming increase like what happened today. If the deal doesn't go through, people will be dumping oil which will cause overall fear as other industries will likely see a decline as well. (Since currently the market seems irrationally inflated) It is also a big day because friday the market is closed so people will have to debate weather they want to hold their stocks for 3 days with a very unpredictable monday. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 08 Apr 2020 12:16 PM PDT I'm under the impression that if I sell at a loss and rebuy the same stock before 30 days I can not count those losses as a loss? Is there more to it than that? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 08 Apr 2020 07:49 AM PDT Just like the title says. I want to get into an ETF, or other instrument to capitalize on what I believe will be an extreme period of corporate defaults. Any recommendations would be welcome on how best to capitalize on this. [link] [comments]  |
| What bubbles are about to pop? Posted: 08 Apr 2020 12:38 PM PDT Bubbles are part of human nature.... and this virus plunged us into the already looming recession. What should we be watching for? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 08 Apr 2020 12:21 PM PDT for example, when looking at the chart for TVIX, how is it possible that the price was above 2 billion in september '11? i assume its from stock splits but could someone explain this. thanks [link] [comments]  |
| Data for Gilead’s potential coronavirus therapy are coming soon. Here’s what you need to know. Posted: 08 Apr 2020 06:08 AM PDT This month, the world should get the first results from a clinical trial testing the drug remdesivir against Covid-19. They will get a lot of attention. Remdesivir, made by the California biotech Gilead Sciences, is one of the potential Covid-19 therapies that is furthest along in the development process. The results, from studies in China, could signal whether the drug can effectively combat the infection — and under which circumstances. So far, there is no proven treatment for the coronavirus. But just how much can be gleaned from these announcements? Will they be the final word on remdesivir? And how can the company supply the drug to patients around the world who might need it? Below, STAT outlines some of the key questions that the announcement will raise. Remind me what remdesivir is. Remdesivir is an experimental antiviral that was first cooked up over a decade ago. In lab experiments, it's shown potential against an array of viruses, including other coronaviruses, so it was sped into clinical trials in the early days of the pandemic. The drug is designed to interfere with the process the virus, called SARS-CoV-2, uses to make copies of itself. The resulting copies of the virus lack their full RNA genome, so they can't go on to replicate themselves or infect other cells. Inspired by the West African Ebola outbreak, Gilead once pushed remdesivir as a potential therapy for that infection. But in a clinical trial, remdesivir did not produce the survival benefits that two other drugs did, and it was dropped as an Ebola therapy. In addition to researchers at Gilead, scientists at the National Institutes of Health, University of North Carolina, and Vanderbilt University have been involved in studying and readying remdesivir for coronavirus clinical trials. What's being announced? Sometime this month, Chinese scientists will share results from two trials in that country, one looking at patients with severe Covid-19, and one with patients with mild and moderate infections. The severe Covid-19 trial enrolled 453 patients, and is expected to read out results first, perhaps as early as this week. The patients were allowed to enter the study up to 12 days from the onset of Covid-19 symptoms. Once enrolled, the patients were randomized in a double-blind fashion and were treated with daily infusions of remdesivir or a placebo for 10 days. The primary goal is to show that the drug is better than placebo at improving symptoms within 28 days. That improvement is measured with a six-point scoring system ranging from hospital discharge (a score of 1) to death (a score of 6). In order to count as someone who responded to the drug, a patient must improve by at least two points. Patients can remain hospitalized at the end of the 28-day period of the clinical trial but still improve enough clinically — no longer needing intubation or supplemental oxygen, for example — to count as a responder. What are the possible outcomes? Handicapping the results of the severe Covid-19 study requires some deep-in-the-weeds modeling of biostatistics. Thankfully, Umer Raffat, a biotech analyst at Evercore ISI, has done the heavy lifting for his investor clients. If people who take the placebo show clinical improvement after 16 days, remdesivir would have to track at 13 days to demonstrate superiority with statistical significance, Raffat said. This would be described in what researchers call a "hazard ratio." The magic number would be 1.2, meaning that patients do 20% better on remdesivir than placebo. There is already one red flag. The investigators running the severe Covid-19 study in China have already taken an interim look at the data, but they did not stop the study early. This suggests remdesivir isn't working as well as hoped, and dampens optimism for an overall positive outcome, Raffat said. It's also possible the trial will produce mixed results. What do you mean, "mixed"? If the data from the remdesivir trials show the drug did not have clear benefits overall, experts will still look to see what kind of impact it had for patients who were treated early in the course of their illness. Remember, patients were allowed to enter the severe Covid-19 study even 12 days after they started showing symptoms. Generally, antivirals are most effective if they are given soon after a person is infected. This allows them to slow the replication of the virus while it is still at low levels. If a treatment is given too late, and the virus has had a full chance to proliferate, it's possible that the cascade of health consequences cannot be stopped. So a key question for the remdesivir data will be if the timing of treatment had an impact on its performance. What's the status of the other remdesivir clinical trials? As mentioned above, there is a second study of remdesivir underway in China that enrolled just over 300 patients with mild or moderate Covid-19. That study is also expected to read out results this month. The patients will be treated with remdesivir or a placebo for 10 days and then followed to determine how quickly they show signs of "clinical recovery" — defined as normal readings for fever, respiratory rate, oxygen saturation and alleviation of cough. At least four additional clinical trials of remdesivir are underway, including two sponsored by Gilead, both of which are expected to read out in May. Another comes from the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. The World Health Organization is also running the "Solidarity" trial that is testing remdesivir as well as other drugs and drug combinations. So this is not the final word on remdesivir's potential to fight Covid-19. If it's approved, would remdesivir be recommended for all patients with Covid-19? It depends on what the data from the clinical trial show, but there's a sense that there's a sweet spot for remdesivir. The drug is given intravenously, and because of that, there's the thought that it only makes sense for patients who are sick enough that they wind up in the hospital. Others seem to be able to fight the infection off on their own at home, even if they feel very ill for a few days. But the patients who are so sick they need hospital care might not progress to that point for perhaps a week after showing symptoms. There's a concern that by that time, remdesivir won't be as effective as it would have been if given earlier. So experts will be looking closely at the data to try to parse out how and when to give the drug. If remdesivir works, there's going to be a huge demand for it. How will the company deal with that? Gilead has been ramping up production of the drug since January and, as of now, has 1.5 million doses, which is enough for 140,000 patients, CEO Daniel O'Day wrote in an open letter released Saturday. He said the company has converted some of its facilities to churn out remdesivir and is working with partners around the world to boost its manufacturing. The company's goal is to have 1 million treatment courses available by the end of the year. Why is getting a proven therapy important? At an individual level, people who get sick from Covid-19 will want a drug that can stave off more severe disease and help them recover faster. But more broadly, an effective drug that gets people out of hospitals faster will help reduce the burden on health care systems. Knowing there is something that can aid people who do get sick could also help countries feel more comfortable reopening their economies. In a way, effective therapies can buy the world time before a vaccine is approved. If remdesivir is approved, how much will it cost? Gilead hasn't commented on pricing, though it's said it does not expect remdesivir to be a commercial boon if it's approved. There will be immense pressure on the company to make the drug widely available, particularly if the pandemic starts to lead to health crises in less developed countries that cannot afford pricey drugs. Have people been getting remdesivir outside of clinical trials? Yes, including the person with the first known Covid-19 case in the United States. Gilead has been supplying the drug through expanded access programs (essentially, a way to get an experimental drug outside of a clinical trial), and in the letter Saturday, O'Day wrote that "more than 1,700 patients have now been treated through these programs." Still, some clinicians and family members of patients have said they have been unable to obtain the drug. What would remdesivir's success mean for Gilead? The last few months of remdesivir news have played out like Gilead's corporate history in miniature. In the early days of the outbreak, the company quickly mobilized clinical trials, treated thousands of patients for free, and committed to making the drug available to anyone who needs it. Then, in late March, the FDA granted Gilead's request for a special designation that would extend remdesivir's patent protection if it's approved, news that brought familiar accusations of profiteering and exploiting regulatory loopholes. Gilead quickly asked the FDA to rescind that designation and has since echoed its earlier promises to make remdesivir accessible. But the blip of controversy underlines the delicacy of Gilead's position. Over the past three decades, the company's work has helped make HIV a manageable chronic disease and turned hepatitis C into a curable infection. But the prices for both of those drugs were heavily criticized, and the resulting revenue transformed Gilead into a multibillion-dollar biotech success story. It also invited protest, castigation, and legal action, most recently in a patent dispute with the Department of Health and Human Services. Remdesivir, if it works, is poised to put Gilead in a difficult PR situation. Investors expect a return, as the promise of remdesivir has added $16 billion to Gilead's market value since the start of the year. But public health advocates, already skeptical of Gilead's business model, will be watching closely for even a whiff of profiteering. What other treatments are being tested and might have results soon? There are hundreds of different studies testing treatments against Covid-19, but only a few of them are likely to read out this year. The Food and Drug Administration recently approved a program to make it easier for patients to receive blood plasma from those who have recovered from the illness as a treatment. Some of the first studies available after remdesivir's readouts will be of immune modulating drugs, such as Roche's Actemra and Regeneron's Kevzara. Both are aimed at helping patients in severe respiratory distress. There are also studies ongoing of other antiviral drugs, including older medicines like the malaria drug hydroxychloroquine. But studies that start now may not read out for months, meaning that new medicines may not be available until summer or later. Credits: https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/06/gilead-remdesivir-data-coming-soon/ [link] [comments]  |
| Anyone noticing volume spikes pre and post market? Posted: 08 Apr 2020 09:52 AM PDT Consistently for at least a couple of weeks there has been a sharp spike in volume on ton of ETFs. There's one pre market and one at 250pm. Have you noticed? Is this the Fed? [link] [comments]  |
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