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    Monday, April 6, 2020

    Stock Market - This Coronavirus Insurance Bill Could Crash the U.S. Stock Market

    Stock Market - This Coronavirus Insurance Bill Could Crash the U.S. Stock Market


    This Coronavirus Insurance Bill Could Crash the U.S. Stock Market

    Posted: 06 Apr 2020 07:00 AM PDT

    Article about the Pandemic Risk Insurance Act, and how it could lumber insurance firms with exorbitant costs.

    https://www.ccn.com/this-coronavirus-insurance-bill-could-crash-the-u-s-stock-market/

    submitted by /u/UnArbreVert
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    Investors should prepare for a coronavirus-induced ‘vicious spiral’ more than twice as bad as the financial crisis, says J.P. Morgan

    Posted: 06 Apr 2020 01:22 PM PDT

    The current shock originated in the consumer sector, which accounts for 70% of GDP

    There is a widespread view on Wall Street that the stock market hit its lowest level of the bear market last month, and that a combination of an ebbing of the coronavirus in late spring and unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus will set the stage for a sharp rebound in corporate profits later this year.

    On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, 7.730%, the S&P 500 index SPX, 7.033% and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, 7.326% were each rallying more than 4% on these hopes.

    However, Mislav Matejka, head of global equity strategy at J.P. Morgana warned investors in a Monday research note that there is a significant chance the global economy experiences "a vicious spiral, which is typical of recessions, between weak final demand, weaker labor markets, falling profits, weak credits markets and low oil prices."

    What's particularly troubling to Matejka is that the current recession has been triggered by a shock to the consumer — which makes up 70% of GDP in Western economies — as workers around the globe are prevented from earning a living by the closures of nonessential business. This dynamic has led J.P. Morgan economists to predict "only a gradual bottoming out in activity, such as seen after the Great Financial Crisis, and not a V-shaped one that we see, for example, after natural disasters." A so-called V-shaped economic recession is typically defined as one characterized by a sharp, but brief, slowdown in business activity that is followed by a powerful rebound.

    The bank's house view is that the unemployment rate will remain elevated at 8.5% during the second of the year, while the peak-to-trough decline in real U.S. GDP will be 10%, versus the 4% decline during the financial crisis. "And this is all assuming that the virus is history by June, which might prove significantly optimistic," Matejka wrote.

    Therefore, he advised clients to ignore technical signals indicating stocks are oversold, or to be reassured by the massive fiscal and monetary support provided by global governments. To do so would be "missing the elephant in the room, that is the first consumer and labor market downcycle in 11 years."

    "While consensus view still appears to be a quick recovery, recessions tend to linger," Matejka added. "It took equities on average 18 months to record the final low in the past."

    More...

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-should-prepare-for-a-coronavirus-induced-vicious-spiral-more-than-twice-as-bad-as-the-financial-crisis-says-jp-morgan-2020-04-06

    submitted by /u/LightningPlus
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    U.S. Is Nowhere Close to Reopening the Economy, Experts Say

    Posted: 06 Apr 2020 12:02 PM PDT

    read the New York Times article and discuss: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/06/business/economy/coronavirus-economy.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

    Essentially, economists say, there won't be a fully functioning economy again until people are confident that they can go about their business without a high risk of catching the virus.

    "Our ability to reopen the economy ultimately depends on our ability to better understand the spread and risk of the virus,"

    submitted by /u/Dems4Prez
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    Wall Street insanity: investors stupidly hoping Coronavirus pandemic in U.S. will "peak" in a week or two, but it won't happen for two or three months. Meanwhile, continued terrible damage to U.S. economy.

    Posted: 06 Apr 2020 05:01 PM PDT

    Trump has claimed Coronavirus in the U.S. will peak soon, but that is untrue. Any "peak" is unlikely before June or July. https://www.npr.org/2020/03/17/817354098/july-or-august-when-the-coronavirus-crisis-could-see-a-turning-point, Even then, it will be less of a peak than a plateau. The U.S. economy will continue to suffer terrible damage for most of 2020, and likely far into 2021. Another Great Depression is likely. Yet many investors are buying based on a wish and hope it will all go away sooner. Another bad stock market crash is coming. Take advantage of the recent false rally and sell everything.

    submitted by /u/Dems4Prez
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    Young people buying cruise stocks. Is it smart?

    Posted: 06 Apr 2020 06:51 PM PDT

    Saw a post here:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/06/strategists-younger-investors-have-recently-been-buying-cruise-stocks.html

    The problem I see is that they are not getting bailout money and with the virus people might fear going on cruises. Do you think all the cruiselines may go bankrupt

    submitted by /u/caseyrobinson2
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    Healthiest way to make decisions

    Posted: 06 Apr 2020 04:07 PM PDT

    Hello there everybody!

    Today was a crazy day huh? I posted yesterday a thread that received a lot of negative feedback https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/fvo521/who_is_ready_for_a_bull_week/

    The post I want to make today is about the lesson I learned from making that post, and from watching all of the posts/decisions on this subreddit. That is the idea of Confirmation Bias.

    When I am using my money, I cause myself to be personally invested in my financial investment; therefore, I begin to let my emotions take the wheel on my decisions because I am afraid of the outcome. This is where Confirmation Bias comes in. Confirmation Bias is when you only find information to support the thought/belief/view that you already have.

    When we enter this emotion fueled financial investment, we are afraid of being hurt a) financially and b) emotionally at the outcome. When I make my prediction I want to feel supported, I want to feel like I made the right decision, I want to feel like I know what is going to happen. So I log onto reddit, I scroll until I find a title that supports my thought and my thought only...why? Because I don't want to be hurt by guessing wrong. I let information fall by the wayside because I just want to feel good.

    This reddit seems to be made up of that and that alone. A whole lot of people posting and commenting "Yea it is for sure going to be a bear! We haven't even touched bottom! I bought $1000 in SPY Puts!". When we enter a bull week people HAVE to change their mind, because they're wrong, and by the end of the week the narrative changes slowly with people fighting with the reason why their investments aren't doing what they want to.

    Here is a takeaway I want you guys to have because I want the best for you and I love my fellow humans.

    If you make a decision, or are about to, actively search out information that goes against that decision. This will force you to look at it from the opposite side, and make an INFORMED response, not an emotional response.

    We are still slave to our biology, and the stock market doesn't care about your poor decisions. Please find information that opposes your own, because only then you can make clear decisions. I love you.

    TLDR: Stop looking for information to support your investment, look for information that denies your investment so you can make the right decision. I love you.

    submitted by /u/Justsomeguy240
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    Watching the market is causing me a a headache.

    Posted: 06 Apr 2020 03:18 PM PDT

    Hey guys, newbie here, I have been watching the market for an investment opportunity and didn't invest at the first pit (because i expect a second one) and since then it has been going up and down with a small trend to go up. But today my what I plan to be my portofolio went up by 7-8%, still no big deal, it isnt the first time going up. What really grinds my gears is the situation in the USA that seems to only get worse and I believe it will get even worse while in the EU the situation looks like getting better. I'm not sure if there will be another market crash like the one in march or even a bigger one. To me the market is just looking fishy and not being a good indicator for the crisis that's really going on.

    What are your thoughts ? Also i would love if you could give me some advice.

    Stay safe and healthy everyone!

    submitted by /u/RoumanianFoker
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    What causes the initial sell off every morning around 9:45-10?

    Posted: 06 Apr 2020 05:04 PM PDT

    I was just curious as to this pattern I've noticed. Is it as simple as the title says? Just a sell off and people getting profits / perhaps panic selling is well if it's on a down day?

    submitted by /u/NotAnotherDingBat
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    Buy/Sell Call/Put option

    Posted: 06 Apr 2020 04:10 PM PDT

    Hello!

    I just learned about investing recently and the main thing that I'm having trouble understanding the trading options. I understand with each share the outcome will vary but if someone could explain this in a way that's a little bit easier it would be a big help!

    submitted by /u/Ccbull123
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    Gold above 1700 today

    Posted: 06 Apr 2020 04:09 PM PDT

    Several weeks ago, when market was crashing, gold went down with it. I didn't understand it, and Reddit told me it's because people were selling it off to raise cash, for liquidity. But as soon as the market bounced, gold went up again now, why? Do people all of a sudden don't need cash anymore? Are business opening up and generating positive cash flows and buying into gold? I still don't get it. Where would gold go from here?

    submitted by /u/pentaquine
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    Stock watch list April 6, 2020

    Posted: 06 Apr 2020 05:49 AM PDT

    Good morning! Here's my watch list

    Gap Ups: AAPL, AXSM, CODX, IMMU, LYV, MESO, MU, NUGT, RCL, RDHL, RYAAY, SMPL, TQQQ, W, XBIT

    Gap Downs: TVIX, ZM

    The SPY is gapping up over 4% at the time I am writing this. Gap days are usually harder to trade. Most large gaps in the market get sold off at open but occasionally they do hold so be aware and stay patient. As of right now the SPY is holding this temporary support and trying to form a "W" pattern but the weekly 200 moving average is still overhead and that's where it got rejected last week. Day to day basis right now until we get out of this range. If market breaks back below last weeks low most likely we will see a retest of the lows, if it breaks above the weekly 200 ma we could see some continuation to the upside as earnings season starts in 2 weeks. Only time will tell. Almost no stocks moving with individual catalyst. If you are new, this is not the ideal time to trade so don't get fomo, just be patient and only take solid trades with good patterns and have a defined risk to reward before entering trades. If you have any questions, comment below or shoot me a message. Good luck trading!

    I made a trading community last week r/Kant_sleep13. Feel free to check it out

    submitted by /u/Kant_sleep13
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    Sell off before close

    Posted: 06 Apr 2020 12:44 PM PDT

    Given this Green Day, should I sell all my long holds and just rebuy tomorrow or the incoming red day to secure my gains and use it to buy more stocks when the upcoming drop happens?

    submitted by /u/aptl23
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    $SQQQ bag holders unite

    Posted: 06 Apr 2020 02:04 PM PDT

    Let's get together in solidarity during this great time of joy. The coronavirus is no longer a thing. Unemployment is no longer a thing. Everybody can go back to normal and live their everyday lives... I guess unless you're dead already.

    Obviously bags like this stinky ass SQQQ are among the worst to be holding but here I am... 250 shares in at a nasty average of $19.46

    submitted by /u/OnYourSide
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    Neither Pandemic Nor Economic Collapse is Going to Be a Short-Lived Crisis

    Posted: 06 Apr 2020 07:54 PM PDT

    read this article and discuss: https://www.counterpunch.org/2020/04/06/neither-pandemic-nor-economic-collapse-is-going-to-be-a-short-lived-crisis/

    Coronavirus in U.S. unlikely to plateau until late summer. U.S. economy will continue to suffer irreparable damage throughout 2020 and into 2021.

    submitted by /u/Dems4Prez
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    How much fluctuation is there usually in the stock market? Im new..

    Posted: 06 Apr 2020 07:23 PM PDT

    So quick summary. Im 23 and got a decent size sum of money from a relative passing this november. I started with around 300k and ive already seen my money drop to 220k then now up to 240k ish. I dont manage it at all except for about 5k ive been just messing around with that i just buy blue chip stocks with. The rest is managed by vanguard and what ive heard from them and others is to not panic and just ride the wave sinse im young and it will be fine long term. But ive also heard that an average growth to hope for is like 5 to 7 percent a year. But ive constantly seen my stocks and such change 3 to 5 percent a day. What do stocks usually do... just go up little bits at a time or just bounce around like this and end up being higher later.

    submitted by /u/seanc97
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    Stimulus money will be deposited starting this week, which consumer goods stocks do you think will see an uptick?

    Posted: 06 Apr 2020 01:03 PM PDT

    With federal unemployment adding in $600/week to people out of work, there will surely be money being spent on things that are not rent/mortgages.

    Now, I don't think people will be rushing out to buy new iPhones with their extra money, and stay-home policies will prohibit people from leaving their houses to spend money..So, where will the extra money be spent on?

    submitted by /u/moneymrly
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    Which stock are you waiting to buy?

    Posted: 06 Apr 2020 02:54 PM PDT

    As much as this whole downward trend is painful, it still gets me excited to put more money into work. I can't be the only one.

    So what stock stock are you waiting for to go lower so you can buy and why? Bonus points for target price

    I was waiting Twtr to go a bit lower but then today happened. I think most tech companies will be the winners at the end

    I still foresee lots of opportunities when they extent these stay home orders and with Q1 & and Q2. And no I dont think they are not priced in yet.

    submitted by /u/Synergiex
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    Portfolio Recommendations/Advices

    Posted: 06 Apr 2020 06:37 PM PDT

    I'm 24 years old, with stable job (city to be exact,) contributed and is still contributing to a ROTH 457b several years ago. I have always followed the stock markets since college days but never contributed towards it, because my job at the time was temporary. I recently opened up a ROTH IRA with TD Ameritrade (have not maxed out yet, am contributing towards when I can), and would love any recommendations/advices on what I should add into my portfolio. I am not a day trader, just a guy who wants trying to handle my finances a bit better. What other index, etf, mutual funds would you recommend that has stable to high yield?

    IRA:

    2x BAC

    4x GPRO

    2x WY

    1x XOM

    PRCNX

    SWTSX

    TRREX

    I am looking into buying VTI and VOO as well. I want to put my future contributions towards SWTSX and PRCNX, and whatever is left towards VTI, VOO, and TRREX. Should I mimic what my investments in my 457 for my IRA? Any recommendations will be very helpful, thanks.

    submitted by /u/iLike206
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    Noob questions, help

    Posted: 06 Apr 2020 06:15 PM PDT

    Im a beginner in how trading works and the platform i have been using so far is trading212, both CFDs and invest.

    I would like to start day trading and in my opinion CFDs would be better due to no stamp duty. I understand the risk of CFDs due to the leverage but if i were to day trade on the Invest platform, wouldnt i be making a loss with paying stamp duty and capital gains tax?

    What are your thoughts on which platform on trading 212 to day trade in? Thanks

    submitted by /u/Sasuke_Uchiha_97
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    Interesting Article on Bull Runs in Bear Market

    Posted: 06 Apr 2020 11:50 AM PDT

    Although the general sentiment of this article is of a dead-cat bounce here and that large un-sustainable gains are usually followed by new lows, they do list March 23rd 2008 as the big gain that never fell again (in that run). I thought it was interesting and would love to hear critiques from those who may be more knowledgeable with the metrics they used on their assessments.

    https://www.ccn.com/the-dow-is-surging-thats-terrible-news-for-stock-market-bulls/

    submitted by /u/burn_bridges
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    Where are we?

    Posted: 06 Apr 2020 01:34 PM PDT

    Is it still going down or are we now on the highway to green?

    I was pretty sure last week we will have a red week. The situation is not getting better, some countries are rebounding, but still a long way ahead.

    History would say this could be a bear market rally, but I'm pretty confused.

    Sitting on some shorts, but wondering if not to convert them into longs as not so much lost yet.

    submitted by /u/Warm_Tzatziki
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    The underlying mechanics of the stock market are the same of a ponzi scheme (DD)

    Posted: 06 Apr 2020 04:52 PM PDT

    The world population annual growth rate reached its peak in1969. About 65 years after that you hear socical security is expected to dry up. That's becuase the mechanics of the the social securtiy program are: withdrawals are paid to earlier buyers with funds from newer people making deposits.

    The same is true for the stock market. By 2035 the largest popultion boom is going to be the largest population dumping shares. The range at which these boomers are buying stocks would be age 20-65 giving the year range 1989-2034. After that it's all down hill.

    You have to ask when talking about the stock market recovery taking years, what happens once the largest population boom stops buying and worse starts selling. The generation before the boomers could easily sell off their stonks and the market keep going due to the massive wave of boomer buying. That era is coming to a end.

    tl;dr stock market will reach its forever peak before the year 2035 (SPY puts)

    submitted by /u/stonksmarket
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    Pump and Dump? Or market controlled by a few

    Posted: 06 Apr 2020 10:32 AM PDT

    https://www.ccn.com/dow-jones-jumps-as-billionaires-pump-stock-market-with-hope/

    Is today's bull run just a play by the rich to pump and dump to make quick profits before the market crashes further?

    Or have we entered a new era where the rich hold so much money they can singlehandedly control the market, irregardless of unemployment, consumer spending, pandemic, etc? Will the inequality gap get even more out of hand?

    submitted by /u/mardukis7
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